Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasizes its independence from political pressures, particularly in response to President Trump's calls for rapid interest rate cuts, opting instead for a patient approach to assess the economic impact of tariff policies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Environment - Trump's high tariff policies aim to reshape U.S. manufacturing and reduce trade deficits but have led to increased costs for consumers and businesses, contributing to inflationary pressures [3][6]. - The current U.S. economy appears stable, with inflation rising but not yet spiraling out of control, as the Federal Reserve maintains a high benchmark interest rate of 4.25% to 4.50% since December [3][6]. - Powell's focus on preventing temporary price spikes from becoming sustained inflation reflects the Fed's role as a guardian of monetary policy [3][4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Trump's public pressure on Powell for interest rate cuts is seen as a political maneuver to boost his support among voters, risking economic overheating and potential crises [4][9]. - The Fed's independence is crucial for avoiding short-term political pressures that could destabilize the economy, with Powell's stance serving as a model for global economic management [7][9]. Group 3: Global Implications - The interconnectedness of the global economy means that U.S. policy decisions, such as interest rate changes, can have far-reaching effects, potentially destabilizing financial markets if not handled cautiously [6][10]. - Powell's cautious approach is viewed as stabilizing for global markets amid rising geopolitical risks and trade tensions, helping to maintain the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [6][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Upcoming economic data, including employment, manufacturing, consumer confidence, and inflation indicators, will significantly influence the Fed's decision-making process [9][10]. - The ability of Powell and the Fed to maintain policy independence and rationality will be critical for both U.S. and global economic stability moving forward [9][10].

Economic Indicators - The actual GDP decreased by 0.30%, while the current dollar GDP grew by 3.50% [3] - Private domestic purchasers' actual final sales increased by 3.00%, but the import volume surged by 37.9%, significantly lowering GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [3] - Government spending saw a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, marking the largest drop since 1986 [3] Industry Performance - The actual value added in the private goods-producing sector fell by 2.8%, and the private services sector decreased by 0.3%, although government sector growth of 2.0% somewhat mitigated the overall decline [4] - The measure of current production profits decreased by $906 million, with a further decline of $275 million compared to previous estimates, indicating severe pressure on corporate earnings [4] Inflation Pressure - Inflation remains a significant concern, with the core PCE price index rising to 3.5%, above the expected 3.4% [5] - The domestic total purchase price index increased by 3.4%, and the PCE price index rose by 3.7%, suggesting a persistent upward trend in prices [5] Corporate Investment - May durable goods orders showed a strong increase of 16.4%, the largest since July 2014, exceeding expectations [6] - Core capital goods orders, a key indicator of business equipment investment, rose by 1.7%, indicating some positive signals in corporate investment despite declining profits [6] Employment Market - Initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, better than economists' expectations, but layoffs increased, leading to a rise in the number of individuals seeking continued assistance [8] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.2% in May to 4.3% in June, reflecting instability in the job market [8] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate cuts, maintaining the benchmark overnight rate between 4.25% and 4.50% since December 2024, indicating a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [8]

Economic Overview - The U.S. real GDP for the first quarter decreased at an annualized rate of 0.5%, which is worse than the expected decline of 0.2%, marking the first economic contraction in three years [1] - The decline was primarily due to an increase in imports and a decrease in government spending, despite growth in investment and consumer spending [1][4] Consumer Spending - Personal consumption showed the weakest performance since the COVID-19 pandemic, with growth revised down from an initial 1.7% to only 0.5% [6] - The contribution of personal consumption to GDP was only 0.31%, significantly lower than the previously reported 0.80% and 1.21% [7] Investment and Trade - Fixed investment contributed 1.31% to GDP, driven by strong investments in data centers [7] - The trade deficit negatively impacted GDP by approximately 4.76%, slightly better than previous estimates [7] Inflation and Price Indices - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 3.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4][13] - The overall domestic purchases price index increased by 3.4%, reflecting upward adjustments in inflation estimates [13] Future Projections - The next GDP estimate for the second quarter is expected to show a rebound in economic growth, with economists predicting a growth rate of 3% [12]

美联储巴尔金：不认为关税的通胀压力会像一些人担忧的那样严重。 ...

美联储巴尔金：关税将推动通胀压力上升，预计关税政策将持续变化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has noted an increase in discussions regarding adjustments in wages and employment as a means to address inflationary pressures [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England is observing more signs of wage and employment adjustments being considered to combat inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, highlighted ongoing uncertainties regarding the overall balance of supply and demand in the economy, as well as persistent inflationary pressures within the system [1] Group 1 - There is a lack of clarity on the equilibrium between supply and demand in the UK economy [1] - Inflationary pressures remain a concern, indicating that the economic environment is still facing challenges [1]

Group 1 - The market sentiment has improved significantly due to a phase ceasefire agreement reached between conflicting parties, which is expected to be implemented in stages [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate rebounded, the Israeli stock market reached a new high, and US stocks continued to perform strongly, indicating a recovery in overall risk appetite [1] - US inflation data for May showed both CPI and PPI below expectations, with core PPI growth at a one-year low, easing inflationary pressures and increasing market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a significant decline, breaking below the key level of 3350, and further dropping to 3295, indicating a bearish trend [4] - The current price of gold is around 3332, with a focus on the support zone between 3318-3313; if this support holds, there may be a potential rally towards the 3400 mark [4] - The suggested trading strategy for gold includes buying on dips between 3317-3311, with a stop loss at 3304 and a target range of 3340-3360 [5]

美联储主席鲍威尔：合理预计关税将带来一定程度的通胀压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Powell, will not consider federal debt issues in its monetary policy decisions, indicating a separation between fiscal and monetary policy considerations [1] Group 1 - Fiscal policy can exacerbate inflationary pressures, but the Federal Reserve will not publicly address this risk [1]