Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting[6] - The Fed announced the cessation of quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1, 2025[2] - The voting outcome was 10-2, indicating significant internal division regarding future rate cuts[6] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's economic assessment shifted from "moderated in the first half of the year" to "expanding at a moderate pace"[6] - Employment growth is slowing, but there are no signs of accelerated job market weakness[2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become more evident in the first quarter of next year[2] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a high probability of pausing rate cuts in December due to ongoing government shutdown issues and delayed economic data[2] - The likelihood of resuming rate cuts may increase after the May 2026 Fed chair transition, especially if a dovish candidate is appointed[2] - The Fed's internal divisions and cautious approach to data-driven decisions add uncertainty to future monetary policy[2]

10月29日，美联储宣布降息25个基点。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，12月是否进一步降息远未成定局，并指 出，美国政府"停摆"将"对经济活动造成影响"。 ...

【导读】香港金管局将基准利率下调25个基点至4.25% 10月30日，香港金融管理局（以下简称香港金管局）将基准利率下调25个基点至4.25%，即时生效。 | 公布时间 | 指标周期 | 预测值 | 前值 | 公布值 | 变动值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-30 07:00 | 截至2025年10月30日 | | 4.5 | 4.25 | -0.25 | | 2025-09-18 08:00 | 截至2025年9月18日 | | 4.75 | 4.5 | -0.25 | | 2025-07-31 07:00 | 截至2025年7月31日 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 | | 2025-06-19 07:00 | 截至2025年6月19日 | | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 | | 2025-05-08 07:00 | 截至2025年5月8日 | | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 | | 2025-03-20 09:00 | 截至2025年3月20日 | | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 ...

【导读】香港金管局将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 4.25% 中国基金报记者 张舟 10 月 30 日，香港金融管理局（以下简称香港金管局）将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 4.25% ，即时生效。 北京时间 10 月 30 日凌晨 2 点，美联储宣布降息 25 个基点，将联邦基金利率从 4.00% ～ 4.25% 降至 3.75% ～ 4.00% ，符合市场预期。同时，美联储决定从 12 月 1 日开始停止 缩表。 香港金管局宣布： 降息 25 个基点 | 公布时间 | 指标周期 | 预测值 | 前值 | 公布值 | 变动值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-30 07:00 | 截至2025年10月30日 | | 4.5 | 4.25 | -0.25 | | 2025-09-18 08:00 | 截至2025年9月18日 | | 4.75 | 4.5 | -0.25 | | 2025-07-31 07:00 | 截至2025年7月31日 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 | | 2025-06-19 07:00 | 截至 ...

Group 1 - The market indicates that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates in December, with no rate cuts expected for the year [1] - The Fed's focus in November will remain on stabilizing employment due to rising job risks, despite dovish comments from Powell [1] - The recent decline in gold prices is viewed as temporary, with expectations for future price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut in 2025, following a previous cut in September. This decision reflects internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy direction [3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the interest rate was widely anticipated by the market, despite internal disagreements among officials regarding the extent of the cut [3]. - Two officials opposed the 25 basis point cut, with one advocating for a 50 basis point reduction to expedite policy easing [3]. - The Fed's internal divisions between hawkish and dovish perspectives are becoming more pronounced, indicating uncertainty in future rate cuts [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Recent indicators align with these trends [4]. - The latest data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September increased by 3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, while the core CPI rose by 3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed's October policy statement did not provide guidance on the December monetary policy path, leaving uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [4]. - The Fed's dot plot suggests the possibility of three rate cuts within the year, with December potentially being the last opportunity for a cut [4]. - Following Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks, market expectations for a December rate cut diminished significantly [5].

美联储如期降息25基点并宣布12月1日起停止缩表（避免当前流动性有所收紧下重现2019年“钱荒”），此前市场已对此充分计价，焦点更多集中在后续降息路径上。本次会议偏鹰派。鲍威尔表示美联储内部对12月份是否继续降息分歧加大，越来越多的人认为或许应该等待一次。市场对此反应剧烈，美债利率大幅走高近10基点、美元同样冲高、美股与黄金调整。经过9月和10月接连两次降息后，利率已有所调整来应对“已知”的就业压力，但政府关门停摆无法提供更多新增经济信息，所以鲍威尔担心“盲飞”前进太快，适得其反。所以从这点看，美联储似乎有理由和动力12月暂停降息，观察后续变化。预计在短期内，政府关门的影响会使市场对继续让“宽松交易”受挫。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut in 2025, aligning with market expectations [1] - There is internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the rate cut, with some officials advocating for a more aggressive approach [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the interest rate was influenced by the lack of updated macroeconomic data due to the U.S. government shutdown [1] - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction (QT) on December 1 [1] - The current economic indicators suggest moderate economic expansion, with a slight increase in unemployment and rising inflation rates [2] Group 2: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed's October policy statement did not provide guidance on the December monetary policy path, leaving uncertainty about future rate cuts [2] - The dot plot from September indicated the possibility of three rate cuts this year, suggesting December could be the last cut [2] - Fed Chair Powell's comments indicated that the December rate cut is not guaranteed, reflecting significant internal disagreement on future policy actions [2][3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's hawkish remarks, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq up 0.55% and the Dow Jones down 0.16% [3] - Market expectations for a December rate cut diminished after Powell's statements, highlighting the impact of the government shutdown on economic data availability [3]

北京时间10月30日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息， 也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）发表声明说，现有指标显示，经济活动一直以温和的速度扩张，今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上 升，通胀率自年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。鉴于风险平衡变化，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 与此同时，FOMC决定于12月1日结束对整体证券持有规模的缩减，即"结束缩表"。 被问及美股估值时，鲍威尔表示，关注任何单一资产并非美联储的职责。但他评论道，人工智能与20世纪90年代泡沫不同，因为一些巨头已拥有与互 联网明星企业截然不同的收入、商业模式和利润。 美股盘中跳水 米兰主张美联储应该在本次会议上降息50个基点——在9月会议上，他也曾主张降息50个基点，但以11比1的投票结果被否决；施密德则认为应该维持 利率不变。 美联储主席鲍威尔：12月是否进一步降息远未成定局 美联储主席鲍威尔在随后举行的新闻发布会上提到，市场预期的12月份再度降息"远未成定局"。 鲍威尔表示，现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has ended its balance sheet reduction after three and a half years, replacing maturing MBS holdings with short-term Treasury securities starting in December [4][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive 25 basis point cut [5][6]. - The decision to cut rates was widely anticipated by the market, with a 99.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut prior to the announcement [6]. - There remains a division within the FOMC regarding the rate cuts, with two dissenting votes; one member advocated for a 50 basis point cut while another preferred to maintain the current rate [11][12]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Reduction - The Fed's balance sheet reduction, which began on June 1, 2022, will conclude on December 1, 2023, with a shift to reinvesting MBS principal payments into short-term Treasury securities [9][10]. - The Fed had previously reduced its monthly balance sheet reduction pace, indicating a cautious approach to liquidity in the market [7][9]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent labor market indicators align with trends observed before the government shutdown, with an acknowledgment of increased risks to employment in recent months [13][14]. - The statement reflects a shift in language regarding economic activity, indicating a slowdown in growth and a slight increase in unemployment, while inflation remains elevated [14][15].