Core Viewpoint - President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve official, to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, aligning with Trump's critical stance on the Fed's current policies [1][2]. Group 1: Nomination Details - Warsh served as a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011 and played a key role during the financial crisis [1]. - Trump's decision marks the conclusion of months of internal discussions regarding the Fed chair nomination, which is considered one of the most significant personnel decisions of his presidency [1]. - Warsh's nomination requires Senate approval, and he is expected to face scrutiny due to an ongoing investigation by the Department of Justice regarding the Fed [2]. Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve is currently divided on whether to lower interest rates further, with some officials arguing that inflation remains above the 2% target [1][2]. - Warsh has previously been labeled as "hawkish" due to his warnings about loose monetary policy leading to higher prices [1]. - Trump has expressed a desire for the Fed to lower interest rates, having previously criticized current Chairman Powell for not meeting his expectations [2][3]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Warsh will face unprecedented challenges, including managing inflation that has exceeded targets for several years, addressing tariff-related price increases, and evaluating the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity and the labor market [2]. - The potential rise of digital currencies poses additional challenges for the Fed, which is responsible for regulating the U.S. banking system [2]. Group 4: Historical Context - This leadership change at the Fed could be one of the most significant since Paul Volcker's appointment in 1979, which transformed the Fed's anti-inflation strategy [4]. - Warsh has committed to a complete break from previous policies, indicating a potential overhaul of the Fed's asset holdings, policy framework, and its role in the economy [4][5]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Warsh's nomination came after he outperformed other candidates, including Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder, all of whom were considered strong contenders for the position [5][6]. - Trump confirmed that Hassett will remain as the Director of the National Economic Council, emphasizing his value to the administration [6].

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在其Truth Social平台上发文表示，他打算提名凯文·沃什担 任下一任美联储主席。 "我认识凯文很长时间了，毫无疑问他将成为最伟大的美联储主席之一，也许是最好的，"特朗普写 道，"最重要的是，他完全符合理想形象，绝不会让你失望。" 沃什曾于2006年至2011年担任美联储理事会成员，此前曾担任特朗普的经济政策顾问。他将接替杰罗姆 ·鲍威尔，后者的主席任期将于五月结束。这对55岁的沃什而言是一次回归，在2017年时，特朗普曾放 弃选择沃什，转而任命鲍威尔担任这一最高职位。 如果获得参议院确认，这位前美联储理事将在关键时刻执掌美国货币政策。当前，许多经济学家和投资 者认为，美联储传统上独立于选举官员的自主权正受到白宫的威胁。沃什在2025年公开主张降低利率， 与特朗普立场保持一致，这与其长期以来作为"通胀鹰派"的名声相悖。 在美联储任职期间，沃什始终对通胀保持警惕，并经常支持提高利率。然而去年，他附和了特朗普的观 点，认为利率可以大幅降低。降息的意愿被视为对下一任主席的试金石，这让美联储观察人士担心，这 会削弱央行的独立性。 沃什的当选并不保证美联储的政策会发生变化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman may not lead to a shift towards interest rate cuts by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [1] Group 1 - Samuel Tombs from Pantheon Macro suggests that if Powell remains on the board after his term ends in May, the President will need to appoint Warsh using Stephen Miran's expiring seat [1] - Miran has consistently voted in favor of lowering the federal funds rate at every meeting since his appointment, indicating that appointing Warsh could result in the loss of a valuable voice supporting rate cuts for President Trump [1] - Tombs emphasizes that if Warsh is appointed, the implementation of loose monetary policy is not guaranteed [1]

特朗普29日早些时候表示，将于下周宣布人选，但在当晚与沃什会面后，决定将宣布时间提前至30日上 午。这一任命还需要国会参议院的正式确认通过。 来源：视觉中国 据央视新闻报道，美东时间1月30日上午，美国总统特朗普提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文·沃什出 任下一任美联储主席，接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔。 在特朗普的第一任期内，沃什也曾是美联储主席的热门候选人之一，但最终败于现任主席鲍威尔。过去 十年，沃什一直是自由贸易和强势美元的坚定拥护者。 沃什虽看好技术革命对生产率的提振并支持降息，但他认为应该先缩表、再降息。他强烈批评美联储过 去15年的激进资产负债表操作，认为量化宽松政策偏离了央行核心职责，必须有计划地通过缩表回归传 统。 总而言之，沃什无论是专业水平还是协调各方的能力均比其他竞争者合适，也更受华尔街青睐，但其对 特朗普的忠诚程度相对较低。 华西证券分析师肖金川此前在研报中表示，无论谁担任美联储主席，都将面临白宫和财政部更大的压 力。 "远离选举政治，不要卷入选举政治。千万别这么做。"鲍威尔在最近的新闻发布会上向他的继任者呼 吁。他强调，一旦失去独立性，美联储的信誉将难以恢复。 原本最被热炒的国家经济委员 ...

来源：格隆汇 1月30日，全球资本市场迎来了2026年的第一个"黑色星期五"。 （来源：格隆汇APP） 失控狂涨的贵金属，突然轰然砸出一个深坑。 截至A股收盘，黄金期货主力合约也大跌4.71%，白银暴跌6.03%创下自2025年4月8日以来最大单日跌幅；钯金、铂金更是双双暴跌近12%，同时在股市里 的贵金属概念股同样几乎集体跌停； 美国市场方面，截至发文时间，纽约白银主力合约一度大跌近17%，美股白银ETF指数盘前暴跌超14%，同时美股纳指盘前也一度下跌了超1%。 就在昨晚，重磅消息传出，特朗普将提名凯文·沃什执掌美联储主席，并在今晚官宣！ 在此前，沃什一直被视为美联储偏鹰派候选人，市场预期他如果上任美联储的降息节奏将更慢、甚至可能在降息同时推进缩表，收紧长期流动性。 目前沃什在博彩网站的胜出概率瞬间已飙升到了93%，这意味着，美联储已很有可能开始进入"沃什时代"。 这会是今天贵金属突然暴跌的导火索吗？ 01 白银全球暴跌之谜 回顾近几个月来，随着全球资金持续疯狂涌入，最终使得以白银为首的贵金属出现"史诗级"飙涨行情，甚至到达接近失控的程度。 其中纽约白银期货主合约从2025年4月的低点27.55美元/盎司开 ...

执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110007 执业证书：S0590125110064 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：linyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn 海外市场点评 美联储："新主席"的政策轨迹 glmszqdatemark 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 研究助理：武朔 加之沃什兼具美联储核心岗位的履职经验，且对市场运行逻辑有着深度理解，综 合适配性显著优于其他候选人，这也成为其在后续提名中可能脱颖而出的核心优 势。 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 [Table_Author] 2026 年 01 月 30 日 随着特朗普对美联储主席提名进入倒计时，市场预期凯文・沃什当选几乎"稳操 胜券"。据市场预测数据，沃什获特朗普提名出任下任美联储主席的概率已突破 90%，稳坐热门人选头把交椅，市场更是提前开启对其潜在任职的定价行情。如 若成功提名，沃什的政策取向与行事风格，将成为左右后续金融市场走势的核心 变量。那么，为何沃什能在市场预期中脱颖而出？倘若当选，其货 ...

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 1月30日，全球资本市场迎来了2026年的第一个"黑色星期五"。 失控狂涨的贵金属，突然轰然砸出一个深坑。 截至A股收盘，黄金期货主力合约也大跌4.71%，白银暴跌6.03%创下自2025年4月8日以来最大单日跌幅；钯金、铂金更是双双暴跌近 12%，同时在股市里的贵金属概念股同样几乎集体跌停； 美国市场方面，截至发文时间，纽约白银主力合约一度大跌近17%，美股白银ETF指数盘前暴跌超14%，同时美股纳指盘前也一度下跌了超 1%。 就在昨晚，重磅消息传出，特朗普 将提名 凯文·沃什执掌美联储主席，并在今晚官宣！ 在此前， 沃什一直被视为美联储偏鹰派候选人，市场预期他如果上任美联储的降息节奏将更慢、甚至可能在降息同时推进缩表，收紧长期流动 性。 目前沃什在博彩网站的胜出概率瞬间已飙升到了93%，这意味着，美联储已很有可能开始进入"沃什时代"。 这会是今天贵金属突然暴跌的导火索吗？ 01 白银全球暴跌之谜 回顾近几个月来，随着全球资金持续疯狂涌入，最终使得以白银为首的贵金属出现"史诗级"飙涨行情，甚至到达接近失控的程度。 其中纽约白银 ...

格隆汇1月30日丨威尔逊资产管理公司投资组合策略师达米安·博伊表示，沃什公开表示过倾向于降低利 率。但他为实现降息所付出的交换条件是希望美联储缩减资产负债表规模。市场的反应似乎是在思考： 如果美联储资产负债表缩小，世界会变成什么样？一旦开始谈论从根基上抽走支撑，所有人们一直用来 对冲资产负债表扩张的资产，如黄金、加密货币，显然也包括债券，都会开始遭到抛售。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump is generating significant market speculation, particularly around the candidates Kevin Warsh and Rick Rieder, with Warsh currently favored to be nominated [1][2]. Candidate Profiles - Kevin Warsh is viewed as a "moderate hawk" who has historically criticized the Fed's policies, particularly its quantitative easing measures, and advocates for a combination of balance sheet reduction and cautious interest rate cuts [5][6]. - Rick Rieder, as the Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, manages approximately $2.4 trillion in assets and has a strong influence in financial markets. He has not held government positions but has interacted with the U.S. government and the Fed [6][7]. Policy Perspectives - Warsh emphasizes the Fed's core responsibility to control inflation and has criticized the Fed for maintaining an excessively large balance sheet, advocating for a strategy that combines balance sheet reduction with interest rate cuts [5][6]. - Rieder believes that the Fed should shift its focus from controlling inflation to addressing labor market challenges, suggesting that a slightly higher inflation rate could be acceptable to stabilize debt dynamics and maintain employment [7][8]. Market Implications - There are concerns regarding the potential impact on the Fed's independence and future monetary policy direction, with expectations that the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance under new leadership [2][9]. - Analysts suggest that the current political pressure on the Fed could undermine market confidence in U.S. monetary policy, potentially leading to rising inflation expectations and upward pressure on interest rates, which could affect U.S. stock valuations [9][10]. Economic Outlook - The market anticipates that the new Fed chair may lead to a stronger likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2026, with expectations that global macroeconomic conditions may improve due to fiscal expansion [10]. - The Fed's reliance on data will be crucial in determining its policy direction, with potential risks associated with both hawkish and dovish scenarios depending on economic indicators such as unemployment and inflation [11].

2026.01. 30 本文字数：3472，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 封图 | 左为里德尔，右为沃什 "我选了一位非常棒的人来领导美联储，不会太令人意外，是我候选名单上的其中一人，该候选人在 金融界很有名。"当地时间1月29日晚间，美国总统特朗普在一场活动中被问及何时公布下任美联储 主席人选时表示，将于"明天上午"（即当地时间1月30日上午、北京时间30日晚间）宣布美联储主席 人选。 在特朗普最新表态后，稍早杀出的候选人黑马——贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克·里德尔 （Rick Rieder）在预测市场Polymarket上的提名概率在1月29日一度飙升至46%后回落至10%左右， 而美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的胜率从前一日的约44%飙升至87%。 瑞士百达财富管理美国高级经济学家崔晓告诉第一财经，沃什属于特朗普喜欢的一类人，适合上电视 发表讲话。在货币政策上，崔晓介绍道，2008年沃什当选美联储理事时，其实非常"鹰派"，很不喜 欢量化宽松（QE）。"他离职后，对美联储政策也是批评颇多，但由于最近非常想获得美联储主席这 个位置，在利率问题上又变得很'鸽派'，甚至称美 ...