Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that asphalt prices are in a high - level oscillation, and investors should be vigilant about a potential rise in crude oil prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2508, the yesterday's closing price was 3,683 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the overnight closing price was 3,669 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.38%. The trading volume was 1,025 lots with a decrease of 546 lots, and the open interest was 1,533 lots with a decrease of 362 lots. For BU2509, the yesterday's closing price was 3,659 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.25%, and the overnight closing price was 3,654 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.14%. The trading volume was 145,613 lots with a decrease of 45,926 lots, and the open interest was 125,992 lots with a decrease of 5,504 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 81,140 lots with no change [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 08) was 102 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan compared to the previous day; the 08 - 09 inter - period spread was 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the Shandong - South China spread was 185, a decrease of 20; the East China - South China spread was 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,785 yuan/ton with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,915 yuan/ton, while the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 4,058 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,841 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,905 yuan/ton. The refinery operating rate was 34.91%, a decrease of 1.00% compared to the previous period; the refinery inventory rate was 25.87%, a decrease of 0.35% [1]. 3.2 Market Information - **Capacity Utilization**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 33.1%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%. The reason was that although some refineries reduced production, some major refineries in Shandong and Jinling Petrochemical maintained stable production [13]. - **Maintenance Volume**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the domestic asphalt plant maintenance volume was 60.4 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons or 5.9% compared to the previous week. The reason was that some refineries in Xinjiang and Shandong resumed asphalt production [13]. - **Shipment Volume**: From July 23 - 29, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. In the Northeast region, refinery production decreased and high - price transactions slowed down, while in the East China region, shipments increased significantly after supply recovery [13]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The asphalt trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8].

2025 年 07 月 31 日 豆粕：美豆收跌，连粕反弹受限 豆一：偏弱震荡 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4153 | +17（-0.41%） 4126 -26（-0.63%） | | 货 期 | （元/吨） DCE豆粕2509 | 3010 | +36（+1.21%） +0（+0.00%） 3001 | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 996 | -12.25（-1.21%） | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 274.3 | n a -2.0（-0.72%） | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | 2900～2940， M2509+30/+40/+60， | 较昨持平至+50； 8月10日前提货M2509-100， 持平； 8-9月 持平或-10； 9月M2509+0/+50， 持平； 10月M2601+30/+70， | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 持平； | 10-11月M2601+30/+60/+80/+110， 持平 ...

2025 年 7 月 31 日 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，偏弱震荡 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2509 | 6008 | -102 | 743,432 | 196,907 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2510 | 5990 | -102 | 63,281 | 41,950 | | | 锰硅2509 | 6116 | -96 | 728,699 | 334,179 | | | 锰硅2510 | 6122 | -96 | 38,867 | 24,737 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5650 | +100.0 | 元/吨 | | | 硅锰:F ...

2025 年 7 月 31 日 燃料油：上涨延续，短期仍然强势 低硫燃料油：盘面偏强震荡，外盘现货高低硫 价差继续上行 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2509 | 元/吨 | 2,956 | 1. 34% | | 2,944 | 1.06% | | | | FU2510 | 元/吨 | 2.967 | 1.06% | | 2.950 | 1.13% | | | | LU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,692 | 1.68% | | 3.675 | 1.66% | | | | LU2510 | 元/吨 | 3.710 | 1.66% | | 3.690 | 1.93% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU25 ...

张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 31 日 工业硅：情绪转弱 多晶硅：关注市场情绪变化 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 9,285 | -65 | -240 | 1,225 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 605,161 | | -49,683 -1,076,836 -772,169 | | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 242,677 | -34,057 | -92,099 | -113,074 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2509收盘价（元/吨） | 54,705 | 3,900 | 4,625 | - | | | | PS2509成交量（手） | 565,243 | 19,206 | -680,998 | - | | | | PS2509持仓量（手） | 16 ...

Group 1 - The article uses metaphors to describe the role of Hang Seng Index futures in the daily lives of workers, comparing it to coffee, construction, cooking, and gardening, illustrating its importance in managing investments and expectations [1][3] - It emphasizes that whether the market is rising or falling, Hang Seng Index futures help individuals build their financial goals and manage their portfolios effectively [1][3] - The narrative suggests that through patience and experience, traders can cultivate their investments, leading to future gains, akin to nurturing a garden [3] Group 2 - The article highlights the dynamic nature of trading, where market fluctuations are likened to cooking, indicating the need for quick decision-making and adaptability [1] - It portrays the emotional aspect of trading, where traders find their rhythm and comfort in the market, transforming ordinary days into engaging experiences [3] - The piece concludes with a sense of optimism, suggesting that with the right approach, traders can look forward to new opportunities each day [3]

Report Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polyolefin: Not rated - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: Not rated - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Overall, most chemical products' prices are facing various supply - demand situations, and the market trends are complex, with many products expected to move within a certain range, and some are affected by factors such as policies, seasons, and inventory [2][3][5] Industry Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly, with supply expected to increase due to device restart, and limited support from supply - demand [2] - Polyolefin futures also fluctuate narrowly. PE demand improves slowly but supply increase is obvious; PP supply is expected to rise while downstream demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Unified benzene prices show a small rebound, with weak fundamental drive and a seasonal improvement expected in the mid - late third quarter [3] - Styrene futures fluctuate narrowly, with high supply, accumulating inventory, and stable downstream demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate. PTA keeps accumulating inventory, and its mid - term processing margin has a repair drive [5] - Ethylene glycol may face a supply shift, with stable downstream demand and low - level port inventory [5] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices stabilize with raw materials. Short fiber has a mid - term positive outlook, while bottle chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures are firm in oscillation. Port inventory shows unexpected destocking, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range [6] - Urea futures run at a low level. Domestic demand is weak, and the market is likely to move within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC oscillates weakly. Supply decreases due to enterprise maintenance, and short - term prices may follow cost fluctuations, with limited long - term increase [7] - Caustic soda shows a strong trend. Some low - inventory enterprises raise prices, and the price is expected to face pressure in the long term [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices oscillate narrowly. There is supply pressure in the long term [8] - Glass prices continue to fall. The market may return to reality - based trading, and long - term price increase is difficult without supply contraction [8]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The previous trading day saw UR decline, closing at 1738. After the coking coal limit - down on Monday, the bullish sentiment from anti - involution may be adjusted, leading to a compensatory decline in urea. Fundamentally, urea supply pressure remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Enterprise inventories continue to decline slightly, mainly due to increased port collection. Upstream enterprise inventories are still around 750,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. In the short term, policy expectations may adjust repeatedly, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Directory Summary Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: On July 28, it was 1758 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan or 2.71% from July 25 [1]. - UR05: On July 28, it was 1782 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 2.20% from July 25 [1]. - UR09: On July 28, it was 1738 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan or 3.61% from July 25 [1]. Spot Prices - Shandong: On July 28, it was 1780 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.56% from July 25 [1]. - Shanxi: On July 28, it was 1660 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 1.78% from July 25 [1]. - Henan: On July 28, it was 1790 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 1.10% from July 25 [1]. - Hebei: On July 28, it was 1760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 1.12% from July 25 [1]. - Northeast: On July 28, it was 1760 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. - Jiangsu: On July 28, it was 1800 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.55% from July 25 [1]. Basis and Spreads - Basis (Shandong spot - UR): On July 28, it was - 2 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from July 25 [1]. - Spread (01 - 05): On July 28, it was - 24 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan from July 25 [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite price in Henan: On July 28, it was 1000 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. - Anthracite price in Shanxi: On July 28, it was 900 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 9.76% from July 25 [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong: On July 28, it was 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Henan: On July 28, it was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. - Melamine price in Shandong: On July 28, it was 5007 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. - Melamine price in Jiangsu: On July 28, it was 5100 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1750 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1764 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1728 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1738 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1745 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2509 was 153,124 lots [1].

| | | | 甲醇日评20250729: 焦煤回落,甲醇补跌 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/7/28 | 2025/7/25 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对目) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2492.00 | 2587.00 | -95.00 | -3.67% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2429.00 | 2504.00 | -75.00 | -3.00% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2404.00 | 2519.00 | -115.00 | -4.57% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2400.00 | 2487.50 | -87.50 | -3.52% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2325.00 | 2340.00 | -15.00 | -0.64% | | 期现价格 | | 厂东 | 元/吨 | 2392.50 | 2460.00 | - ...

| | | 尿素早评20250729: 焦煤回落，尿素补跌 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 变化值 单位 7月28日 7月25日 | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1758.00 | 1807.00 | -49.00 | -2.71% | | 房素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1782.00 | 1822.00 | -40.00 | -2.20% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1738.00 | 1803.00 | -65.00 | -3.61% | | 期现价格 | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1780.00 1660.00 | 1790.00 1690.00 | -10.00 -30.00 | -0.56% -1.78% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1790.00 | 1810.00 | -20.00 | -1.10% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | ...