Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For soymeal, the market is expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to avoid holiday - related risks [1]. - For soybeans, investors are advised to hedge risks before the holiday and observe the market cautiously [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybeans 2605 closed at 4224 yuan/ton in the day - session, up 65 yuan (+1.56%), and 4237 yuan/ton in the night - session, up 33 yuan (+0.78%); DCE soymeal 2605 closed at 2778 yuan/ton in the day - session, down 10 yuan (-0.36%), and 2771 yuan/ton in the night - session, up 3 yuan (+0.11%); CBOT soybeans 03 closed at 1060.75 cents/bushel, down 3.0 cents (-0.28%); CBOT soymeal 03 closed at 302.3 dollars/short - ton, down 1.2 dollars (-0.40%) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soymeal (43%) was 3060 - 3140 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different months; in East China, it was 3040 - 3140 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 3120 - 3200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soymeal was 20.37 million tons per day, compared with 5.07 million tons two days ago; the inventory was 110.22 million tons per week, compared with 105.63 million tons two weeks ago [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 30, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the clear production outlook of South American soybeans. Year - end closing will be the main theme in the market in the next few days. The market will focus on the weekly export sales report and position report on Wednesday. Private exporters reported selling 13.6 million tons of soybeans to China and 23.1 million tons to unknown destinations in the 2025/26 season. Soybean harvesting is underway in Brazil's Paraná and Mato Grosso states, and nearly 76% of soybean planting in Argentina has been completed [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soymeal and soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral situation for the day - session's main contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [4].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周国内最新大豆库存环比大幅下降，但豆粕库存环比增加，且同比偏高。但一季 | | | | 度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，国内现货价格表现抗跌。加上阿根 | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 廷降雨再度低于正常水平，存在升水支持。但美豆周度出口数据持续恶化，美豆暂 | | ★ | | 难言企稳，因此豆粕看多逢低适量短多为宜，元旦假期做好仓位控制。关注美豆出 | | | | 口数据能否改善及南美天气情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，仓单库存压力有所减轻。但全球丰产、进 | | 菜粕 | 短线反弹 | 口多元化及消费淡季弱化看多预期。菜粕短期以跟随豆粕趋势为主，库存压力缓解， | | ★ | | 比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。关注澳籽压榨和进口政策、中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 马棕榈油本月前 25 日出口数据环比增加，产量环比继续调减，12 月存在去库预期， | | 棕榈油 | 止跌反弹 | 昨日棕榈油收涨，关注月底最终数据。看多逢低参与，元旦假期做好仓位管理。 | | ★ | | ...

2025 年 12 月 31 日 商 品 研 究 硅铁：多空资金博弈，偏强震荡 锰硅：多空资金博弈，偏强震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2603 | 5750 | 7 4 | 232,982 | 230,640 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5706 | 7 4 | 24,541 | 46,161 | | | 锰硅2603 | 5942 | 8 0 | 262,830 | 278,271 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5948 | 6 0 | 108,988 | 205,459 | | | 项 目 | | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁: ...

2025 年 12 月 31 日 花生：节前减仓 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 花生基本面数据 | | | | | 昨日价格 | 价格变动 0 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重要现货 | 辽宁308通货 | 元/吨 | | 9,400 | | | | 价 格 | 河南白沙通货 | 元/吨 | | 7,300 | 0 | | | | 兴城小日本 | 元/吨 | | 8,600 | 0 | | | | 苏丹精米 | 元/吨 | | 8,650 | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌% | | | | PK601 | 元/吨 | | 8,078 | 0.05 | | | | PK603 | 元/吨 | | 7,942 | -0.33 | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期 货 | PK601 | 手 | 1,633 | 899 | 12,251 | -1347 | | | PK603 | 手 | 118,535 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The agricultural products sector shows a mixed trend. Palm oil, cotton, and pigs are on an upward trend, while soybean meal is volatile, sugar is in a narrow - range oscillation, and eggs are also volatile. Each product's trend is affected by supply - demand factors and technical indicators [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2605 contract breaks through the resistance and expands gains, supported by reduced supply and increased demand in the origin. Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 25 days of December decreased by 9%, and exports increased by 1.6% - 3%. Technical indicators are strong, and the strategy is to go long on dips with support at 8550 - 8600 [2]. Cotton - The cotton main 2605 contract rises strongly, supported by the expected supply contraction and strong downstream demand. The new cotton sales rate is up 25.1 percentage points year - on - year, and there are optimistic expectations for textile exports. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold light long positions [3]. Pigs - The pig main 2603 contract continues to rise, driven by increased demand at the end of the year. Group pig enterprises reduce supply, and consumer demand for pork increases. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to go long on dips with light positions [5]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main 2605 contract is volatile, first falling then rising. High inventory restricts the rebound space, with the domestic soybean meal inventory at 117.6 million tons, up 7.72% week - on - week. The strategy is short - term trading [7]. Sugar - The Zheng sugar main 2605 contract oscillates in a narrow range. Although seasonal supply increases, demand is expected to pick up during the festivals, and the inventory is low. The technical indicators are strong, and long positions can be held [9]. Eggs - The egg main 2602 contract is volatile, first falling then rising. Supply is abundant, but consumption is expected to improve. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall trend of lithium carbonate has not reversed, and it is advisable to go long at low prices after the price stabilizes and the capital signal recovers. Polysilicon may fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. Industrial silicon is in a short - term shock pattern, and attention should be paid to whether the pressure level of 9000 is effective [1][8][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 closed at 121,580 yuan/ton, up 2.32% from the previous trading day [1]. - **Core Logic**: The price turned to a shock - strengthening pattern, but funds continued to withdraw. The sharp decline yesterday was a normal adjustment. The market has a consistent expectation of increasing demand, and the downstream production schedule in January - February exceeded expectations. In January 2026, the total production schedule of China's lithium - battery market increased by 103% year - on - year [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The market was still controlled by bulls, with significant position - reduction at the end of the session. The 5 - minute cycle was green, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle was strong, with a long - short dividing line at 11,820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long at low prices. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [2]. - **Concerns**: The resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi and the import volume of lithium concentrates, as well as the results of long - term contract negotiations and downstream demand release [3][4]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures contract 2605 closed at 57,890 yuan/ton, up 2.46% from the previous trading day [6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the macro - emotional side, it followed the overall commodity trend. Exchange regulations may lead to reduced or withdrawn funds. It returned to the upper edge of the previous shock range, and the support level was not broken, but liquidity decreased significantly [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract reduced positions by 12.86%, and trading volume decreased significantly. The 5 - minute cycle was red, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle was weak, with a long - short dividing line at 60,760 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may maintain a shock pattern in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Concerns**: The recovery of warehouse receipts [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures contract 2605 closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, up 2.29% from the previous trading day [13]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the maintenance of northern large - scale plants on the supply side, it strengthened in a shock. The supply - demand imbalance continued, inventory was at a three - year high, and downstream restocking was limited [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest continued to decline. There was an intraday trading opportunity at 9:05, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle was red - blue - red, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle was strong, with a long - short dividing line at 8,715 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is in a short - term shock pattern. Pay attention to whether the pressure level of 9000 is effective. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [13]. - **Concerns**: Macro - emotional changes, environmental protection speculation of large - scale plants in winter, industry anti - involution progress, and new warehouse receipt registration [13].

2025 年 12 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆仍收跌，连粕或跟随调整 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4156 +31 | （+0.75%） | 4180 | +21 （+0.50%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2774 | -8（-0.29%） | 2776 | -12 （-0.43%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1063.75 | -8.0（-0.75%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 303.5 -3.9 | （-1.27%） | | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 较昨-30至+10； 3120～3160， | | 现货基差M2605+350， | 较 ...

研究员 姓名：师秀明 今 日 早 评 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 重点品种： 【短评-PTA】低加工费环境下PTA检修力度较大，虹港、海 伦、汉邦、YS及台化等部分装置处于长期停车，YS海南1#完成 技改后也尚未复产，近期中泰石化短期停车，YS宁波2#及英力 士1#按计划重启，而YS新材料短暂降负后恢复正常。评：近端 检修较多，12月平衡表去库，而PTA供应尚未回归,1月也没有累 库压力, 较此前预期好转；中长期随着产能集中投放周期结 束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善；另外明年二季度PX检修较多， 远端预期较好。低位偏多思路。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-18元/吨；山西准一级焦 平 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market is supported at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with increasing supply, strong spot, decreasing domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates. The basis is -415, indicating a bearish signal. The inventory situation is neutral, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increasing week - on - week and decreasing year - on - year, and the Qingdao area inventory increasing both week - on - week and year - on - year. The price is running above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign. The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. The market is expected to have support at the bottom, suggesting buying on dips [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The supply is increasing, and the import volume is rising [4][20] - **Demand**: Downstream consumption is high. Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire exports are recovering, but tire production is decreasing year - on - year [6][23][29] 3.2.2 Price - The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) fell on December 29, and the basis strengthened on the same day [8][35] 3.2.3 Inventory - The exchange inventory is rising, and the Qingdao area inventory has recently recovered [14][17] 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - **Bullish factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Bearish factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6] 3.4 Basis - The basis was - 415, and it strengthened on December 29 [4][35]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Japan's central bank's December meeting minutes suggest more interest rate hikes, with economists expecting another hike in about six months and most seeing the end - rate of this hiking cycle at 1.25% [7][8]. - Platinum and palladium prices retreated yesterday, with high - level volatility intensifying. Short - term attention should be paid to the spread between domestic and foreign markets and holiday liquidity tightening, and investors are advised to control positions and set strict stop - loss [9][10]. - For lithium carbonate, there is a game between weak off - season demand and strong expectations, and the lithium price will fluctuate widely in the short term. The key is to focus on the downstream spot purchasing after the price correction [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pre - market Highlights from the Director - **Japan's Central Bank Policy**: The December policy meeting minutes of the Bank of Japan show that many members believe the country's real interest rates are still extremely low, hinting at continued future rate hikes. The benchmark interest rate was raised to 0.75%, a 30 - year high. Economists expect another hike in about six months, with most seeing 1.25% as the end - rate of this cycle [7][8]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Prices retreated yesterday. The core drivers are the capital movements in European and American markets and risk - aversion operations before the New Year's Day holiday in the domestic market. There are structural contradictions in the spot market, but they are not tightening marginally. ETF inflows are stable. Short - term attention should be paid to the spread between domestic and foreign markets and holiday liquidity tightening [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is a game between weak off - season demand and strong expectations. The price fluctuated widely in the short term. The market is affected by news, such as the expected weakening of lithium - battery demand in early 2026 and the substitution of sodium - batteries. The industry is in a destocking state, but the pace has slowed. The market's overall expectation for next year is still positive [11]. Commodity Research Morning Report Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining. The prices of Shanghai gold futures and Comex gold futures decreased, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes [16]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment. Shanghai silver futures and Comex silver futures prices declined, and trading volumes and positions also changed [16]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Capital liquidation led to a price correction. The prices of Shanghai copper and LME copper showed different trends, and production and import data also changed [23][25]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc changed, and inventory and other data also showed corresponding fluctuations [26]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The prices of Shanghai lead and LME lead changed, and inventory data also changed [29]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again. The prices of Shanghai tin and LME tin decreased, and inventory and other data also changed [32]. - **Aluminum**: It follows the trend of copper. The prices of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum changed, and inventory and other data also showed fluctuations [36]. - **Platinum**: Capital outflows led to a retreat. The prices of platinum futures and spot platinum decreased, and trading volumes and positions also changed [39]. - **Palladium**: It followed platinum's decline. The prices of palladium futures and spot palladium decreased, and trading volumes and positions also changed [39]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces. The price of Shanghai nickel changed, and there are some impacts on the industry from policies in Indonesia [43]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals restrict its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks. The price of stainless - steel futures changed, and there are impacts on the industry from policies in Indonesia [43]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The game between bulls and bears intensifies. Attention should be paid to the restocking demand after the price correction. The prices of lithium - carbonate futures and spot lithium carbonate changed, and there are impacts from news and market expectations [48][50]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a range - bound oscillation with fluctuations increasing. Polysilicon is also in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of their futures and spot products changed, and inventory and other data also showed corresponding fluctuations [51]. - **Iron Ore**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The price of iron - ore futures increased, and spot prices and spreads also changed [54]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The macro - environment provides support while the industry exerts pressure, and steel prices remain range - bound. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures increased, and spot prices and spreads also changed [56]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Market information causes wide - range oscillations. The prices of their futures and spot products changed, and spreads also changed [60]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: A fourth round of price cuts for coke has started, and there are end - of - year production - reduction disturbances for coking coal. The prices of their futures and spot products changed, and spreads also changed [65]. - **Log**: It is oscillating at a low level [69]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene and PTA are in a high - level oscillation. MEG has limited upside space and still faces pressure in the medium term. Their prices and spreads changed, and there are impacts from production and demand [71][75][76][77]. - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The price of rubber futures decreased, and inventory and other data also changed [78][79]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It follows the decline of the commodity index. The price of synthetic - rubber futures decreased, and there are impacts from inventory and market trends [82][84]. - **LLDPE**: Upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis remains stable. The price of LLDPE futures decreased, and there are impacts from production, demand, and inventory [85][86]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market stabilizes and oscillates. The price of PP futures decreased, and there are impacts from production, demand, and cost [88][89]. - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The price of caustic - soda futures and spot prices changed, and there are impacts from production, demand, and inventory [91][93]. - **Pulp**: It is oscillating weakly. The price of pulp futures decreased, and inventory and other data also changed [99]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of glass futures increased, and spot prices and spreads also changed [104]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates with support. The price of methanol futures remained stable, and there are impacts from inventory and cost [107][109]. - **Urea**: It oscillates in the short term. The price of urea futures remained stable, and there are impacts from production, demand, and inventory [111][114]. - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term. The price of styrene futures decreased, and there are impacts from production, demand, and cost [115][116]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little. The price of soda - ash futures decreased, and spot prices remained stable [119]. - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight. Attention should be paid to the realization of the downward driving force. The prices of LPG and propylene futures changed, and there are impacts from production and demand [121][122]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand tightens, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound. The price of propylene futures changed, and there are impacts from production and demand [122]. - **PVC**: It oscillates weakly. The price of PVC futures and spot prices changed, and there are impacts from production, demand, and inventory [130]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil's night - session volatility increases, and it may remain strong in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates strongly, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. Their prices and spreads changed [134]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the cabin - opening guidance. The price of the container - freight - index futures increased, and there are impacts from shipping capacity and geopolitical factors [136][146][147]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: They are oscillating at a high level. The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures decreased, and spot prices also changed [151]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to watch. The price of offset - printing - paper futures increased, and spot prices remained stable [154]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates mainly in the short term. The price of pure - benzene futures decreased, and spot prices and inventory changed [159][160]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil rebounds in the short - term rhythm but with limited height. Soybean oil has little driving force from the US soybeans, and it is advisable to operate within a range. Their prices and spreads changed [163]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal may follow the adjustment. Soybean oscillates. The prices of soybean - meal and soybean futures changed, and there are impacts from production and demand [168][169][170][171]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price of corn futures changed, and spot prices and spreads also changed [172][173][174]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound arrangement. The price of sugar futures decreased, and there are impacts from production and demand at home and abroad [176][177][178]. - **Cotton**: The area expectation is undetermined, and the futures price is correcting. The price of cotton futures decreased, and there are impacts from the domestic and international cotton markets [181][183][184][185]. - **Egg**: It oscillates in the short term. The price of egg futures decreased, and spot prices and spreads also changed [187]. - **Live Pig**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and it is strong in the short term. The price of live - pig futures increased, and spot prices and spreads also changed [190][191]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the purchases by oil mills. The price of peanut futures changed, and spot prices and spreads also changed [196].