以下文章来源于经纬创投 ，作者经纬创投主页君 经纬创投 . 经纬创投的官方信息发布平台 本文来自微信公众号： 经纬创投 ，作者：经纬创投主页君，原文标题：《AI 野火即将来临：疼痛 无比，却极其健康 |【经纬低调出品】》 当下，对于AI大规模投资的"泡沫"讨论热火朝天，投资者应该如何理性地看待AI科技革命热潮？ 但其实，AI领域的狂热从不是转瞬即破的泡沫，而是一场重塑生态的野火。这里面蕴藏着疼痛却暗 藏健康生长的力量。野火历来是行业周期的清醒剂，清理冗余、沉淀养分，为新物种腾挪空间， 2000年初的互联网泡沫和2008年的金融危机的浪潮早已印证，每一次燃烧后的修正，都能催生一批 核心强者。 如今硅谷资本充盈但赛道拥挤，人才稀缺且同质化竞争凸显，地表增量枯竭，野火的纠偏已然临近。 这场火势更集中于核心领域，算力既是燃料也是关键约束，过度建设的产能终将转向实际需求，而能 源根基的比拼更决定长远格局。 不同参与者如同生态里的各类植物，或易燃成养分，或耐火更坚韧，或借火获新生。唯有扎根核心能 力、筑牢商业闭环、适配真实需求，方能扛过周期考验。野火必然烧尽浮华，而真正的价值与机遇， 正藏在灰烬之后的新生之中，见证AI生 ...

站在2025年12月的时间节点，距离ChatGPT发布仅过去三年，市场对于"AI泡沫"的讨论已至沸点。德意志银行认为，当前AI热潮既不是完全的泡 沫，也不是毫无风险，关键在于区分不同类型的"泡沫"。 12月12日，据硬AI消息，德银在最新研报中创新性地将AI泡沫分为估值泡沫、投资泡沫和技术泡沫三个维度进行分析。报告称，公开市场大型科 技公司的估值有盈利支撑，投资增长符合趋势且由现金流推动，技术进步仍在持续。真正的风险集中在估值过高的私营公司、可能失控的循环融 资结构，以及潜在的技术瓶颈和供应限制。 估值泡沫：估值分化揭示真实风险所在 德银的核心观点是当前AI热潮并非单一泡沫，而是由三种不同性质的泡沫构成。 然而，德银认为，这一估值主要由盈利增长驱动，而非纯粹的投机。该行称，虽然整体估值较高，但自2022年10月以来，标普500指数一直在 22.7%的年化增长趋势通道内运行，目前处于该通道的低端。 更关键的是，大型科技股的估值溢价是由盈利增长驱动的：大型科技股的估值溢价约60%，但这一溢价得到了20%以上的盈利增长差异支撑。 德银指出，当前科技股估值并未达到互联网泡沫时期的极端水平，且盈利增长正在向更广泛的行业 ...

标普500指数周四再次收于历史新高，这在2025年虽不罕见，但这一次距离上一次破纪录已有六周。不过，周四的市场格局与10月下旬相 比已是截然不同。 首先，10月的高点伴随着一阵投资者的狂热情绪，主要受到强劲财报季和对人工智能前景兴奋感的推动。而这一次，那种"上头"的感觉 已荡然无存，对于期盼年底反弹的多头来说，这反倒是个积极信号。 继美联储如期降息25个基点，且美联储主席鲍威尔发表关于美国经济韧性的评论后，标普500指数出现反弹。该指数今年已录得17%的涨 幅，并于周四收于历史新高。 由Ned Davis Research编制的一项情绪指标（追踪包括波动率、投资者仓位和机构投资者调查在内的20个分项）目前低于62.5，处于通常 被视为极端乐观区间的底部之下。 自标普500指数在10月下旬创下前次纪录以来，投资者的目光已转向大型科技股以外的板块。这部分是因为AI浪潮正惠及更多领域（如公 用事业、工业公司），以及美联储暗示将降息。 与此同时，经济学家和策略师预计美国经济将在新的一年迎来飙升，从而推高利润。关于AI泡沫的担忧已迅速让位于对美国经济增长的 乐观情绪。 Ned Davis Research的首席美国策略 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rapid growth and potential risks associated with AI, particularly focusing on OpenAI and its financial challenges [1][2][3] - AI is not a new concept, having been introduced in the 1950s, and has a solid foundation, but there are concerns about over-exuberance leading to potential bubbles, especially regarding large models [1] - OpenAI's projected spending over the next eight years is at least $1.4 trillion, with a need to grow revenue to approximately $200 billion by 2030 to achieve profitability [1][2] Group 2 - OpenAI's valuation once approached $1 trillion, but its profitability remains weak compared to companies like Alibaba, which are actively applying AI in practical scenarios [2] - The company is preparing for an IPO that could value it at up to $1 trillion, with discussions indicating a potential fundraising of at least $60 billion [2] - The importance of AI lies in its applications, with numerous implementations already present in China, such as the "black light factory" that has impressed Western entrepreneurs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Deutsche Bank highlights the potential for unexpected outcomes in global markets, emphasizing the need for investors to be aware of both upside and downside risks as they navigate a post-pandemic economic landscape [3][4]. Group 1: Potential Upside Scenarios - AI-driven capital expenditure could propel the U.S. economy back to a growth rate of over 4%, reminiscent of the late 1990s boom, supported by strong cash flows from large tech companies [5][6][8]. - The S&P 500 index may reach 8000 points by 2026, indicating an annual return of approximately 17%, which aligns with historical trends of 15% to 20% annual returns [5][9][13]. - The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cuts could facilitate a "soft landing," with historical data suggesting a 50% increase in stock prices two years post-rate cuts [15][16][17]. - Political motivations surrounding the midterm elections may lead to expanded tariff exemptions, potentially easing trade tensions and supporting market stability [19][21]. - Successful economic reforms in Europe, particularly in Germany, could revitalize stagnant economies, while any progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could significantly boost European asset prices [23][25]. Group 2: Potential Downside Risks - The Federal Reserve may be forced to reverse its rate cuts and raise interest rates if inflation remains persistently high, which could disrupt current market pricing [27][28][30]. - An AI bubble could burst if leading companies like Nvidia fail to meet earnings expectations, leading to a market sell-off due to high valuations and leverage [32][37]. - Concerns over sovereign debt crises in developed markets, particularly the U.S. and Japan, could challenge long-term fiscal sustainability, with the U.S. running wartime-level deficits [39][44]. - Political and economic crises in Europe, exacerbated by ineffective fiscal stimulus and political gridlock in countries like France, could lead to increased risk premiums and capital outflows [47][49]. - Extreme physical events, such as pandemics or natural disasters, pose significant tail risks that could disrupt economic forecasts and market stability [52][54].

21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 广州报道 他预测泡沫濒临破灭的时点可能在2026年下半年，届时通胀回升、降息结束与美国大选政治风险叠加， 流动性拐点将引爆市场波动。 "A股优势在于拥有独立于美股的资产价值锚，"宋雪涛强调，"在A股投资可能会有幸福感，因为有很多 资产是可以跟它没关系的，你可以站在岸边看船起船落。" "泡沫本身没有问题，甚至对于产业来说没有泡沫才是悲剧，因为泡沫吸引了大量资金投在基础设施 上，"宋雪涛总结道，"但投资者需要清醒认识，产业归产业，投资归投资，是两码事。2026年将是价值 重估的关键之年，三重逆转将重塑中国经济与资本市场格局，投资者应把握结构性机会，同时警惕流动 性风险。" 谈及A股价值重估，宋雪涛创新性地提出了三重维度理论。在资产质量重估维度，他认为中国顶尖科技 企业、出海企业和产业升级类公司的质量也将得到重估。 在流动性重估维度，他指出人民币实际购买力被低估，若按购买力平价计算，人民币与美元汇率真实值 约3.4，意味着人民币被低估约50%。随着中国强大的综合国力、制造业能力和价值观输出带动地缘政 治影响力提升，全球流动性将加速流入人民币资产。 在风险溢价重估维度，宋雪涛强调中国政 ...

AI行情像是一条被不断拉扯的橡皮筋，每一家巨头的财报都是新的张力点。 昨晚，甲骨文又一次把市场的神经狠狠绷紧了。 财报公布后，甲骨文股价盘中一度暴跌16%，市值蒸发超千亿美元，收盘仍蒸发近690亿美元。 风暴眼来自甲骨文那份被市场称作"打破幻觉"的财报，市场对AI、泡沫的担忧情绪又卷土重来。 这家公司在三个月前，9月10日，因为与OpenAI签下高达3000亿美元的AI订单而股价暴涨40%，创下 345.22美元历史高位。创始人埃里森更是短暂坐上世界首富的位置。 但如今，股价回落至198.85美元，距离高点跌去42.4%。只用了不到一个季度，高潮变低谷。 全球宏观市场的割裂已经摆上了台面，一边是AI泡沫的纠结与极限拉扯，另一边大宗商品市场正在上 演逼空行情。 今年的大宗商品市场，真正让人心里发毛的，不是黄金的新高，也不是铜价的冲天，而是白银这个从不 抢戏的"金属二弟"，突然像被按下了加速键，年内涨幅直接翻倍。 107%的涨幅，比黄金还猛。 | 序号 | 名称 | 年内涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | T | COMEX白银 | 107.15 | | 2 | 韩国KOSPI | 71 ...

Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to gradually move towards expansion in 2026, with economic growth potentially higher than in 2025, characterized by a front-loaded low and a back-loaded high throughout the year [5][15]. - The first quarter of 2026 may represent a relative low point due to the prolonged government shutdown in October 2025, but subsequent recovery is anticipated driven by fiscal and monetary policy support [15][37]. - Consumer spending is projected to steadily recover, supported by the gradual realization of benefits from the "Big Beautiful Act" (OBBBA), which will reduce tax burdens and increase disposable income [15][20]. Market Performance - The US stock market is expected to see further gains in 2026, primarily driven by earnings growth, with an overall EPS increase of over 12% anticipated [5][43]. - The technology sector is expected to continue its dominance in the first half of 2026, while a shift towards cyclical sectors is anticipated in the latter half as economic recovery progresses [49][50]. Sector Analysis - Small-cap stocks are expected to show greater elasticity in 2026, supported by lower borrowing costs and pent-up demand as the economy enters the early stages of recovery [5][49]. - The technology sector is projected to maintain its leading position in the first half of the year, with significant contributions from earnings, while the second half may present risks due to potential stagnation in capital expenditures [49][50]. - Cyclical sectors such as industrials, real estate, consumer discretionary, and financials are expected to benefit from the economic recovery, particularly as real estate begins to thaw and new home sales show signs of improvement [5][49][57].

Group 1: OpenAI and GPT-5.2 Release - OpenAI officially released the GPT-5.2 series model, targeting paid ChatGPT users and API developers, with three versions: Instant, Thinking, and Pro [3][4][5] - The Instant version focuses on low latency and high responsiveness for tasks like information retrieval and document translation, while the Thinking version is designed for programming and complex project planning [3] - The Pro version emphasizes extreme accuracy and reliability for high-difficulty tasks in fields like research and finance, marking a significant enhancement in programming capabilities and factual accuracy [3][4] Group 2: Competition with Google - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman acknowledged the competitive pressure from Google’s Gemini 3, which has narrowed the performance gap between the two companies [4] - OpenAI is temporarily slowing down its AGI goals to focus on improving the quality of ChatGPT in response to this competition [4] - Altman expects OpenAI to exit its "red alert" status by January, indicating a stabilization in its competitive position [4] Group 3: Xiaomi's Smart Home Factory - Xiaomi announced the completion and production launch of its first major home appliance factory in Wuhan, capable of producing an air conditioner every 6.5 seconds [8][9] - The factory utilizes AI visual inspection for quality control, achieving 100% detection of key components and maintaining manufacturing tolerances of ±0.05 mm [9] - This facility represents a significant step in Xiaomi's strategy to create a closed-loop capability in the home appliance sector, integrating design, research, production, sales, and service [9] Group 4: Market Trends and AI Integration - ChatGPT topped the 2025 U.S. iPhone free app downloads, indicating a significant increase in the penetration of generative AI in daily life [16][18] - OPPO established a new smart product R&D department to unify its AI assistant services under the "Super Xiaobu" brand, reflecting a trend of deeper integration of AI across product lines [20][21] - Adobe integrated its applications into ChatGPT, allowing users to perform tasks like image editing and PDF processing through natural language commands, enhancing cross-platform creative productivity [57][59] Group 5: Industry Insights and Future Developments - Bill Gates commented on the AI industry, suggesting that not all high-valuation companies will succeed, and some investments may lead to "dead ends" [44][46] - MIT introduced a new chip manufacturing method that significantly improves energy efficiency, addressing the growing power consumption issues associated with AI and deep learning applications [41][42] - Spotify is testing a new feature that allows users to generate personalized playlists through natural language prompts, showcasing the increasing integration of AI in consumer applications [24]

甲骨文的财报 2025年12月11日，Oracle发布了2026财年第二季度财报，股价在盘后一度暴跌14%，跌去约1050亿美 元市值，这是自2001年以来最大的单日跌幅。这一反应源于营收和利润率低于预期，下面这个表是 各大机构对oracle的评级和核心观点： | 机构名称 | 评级 | 目标价 | 目标价调整 | 当前股价 | 潜在涨跌空 | 核心观 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （USD） | 情况 | | 间 | 要 | | | | | | | | 认可 关订单 | | | | | | | | 长，但 | | | 持有 | | 暂不调整， | | | 订单转 | | 摩根士丹利 | （Equal | 320.00 | 处于评估中 | 223.01 | +43.49% | 率、利 | | | weight） | | | | | 承压及 | | | | | | | | 不确定 风险与 | | | | | | | | 平衡 | | | | | | | | 看好长 | | | | | | | | 基础设 | | 花旗 | 买入 | 370 ...