| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： 观望 | | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高套保节后合约 | | ◆玉米： | 谨慎追高，等 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Ratings for Different Industries - Macro - finance: Index futures are promising in the medium - to - long - term, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [1][5]. - Black building materials: Coking coal for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass recommended to buy on dips [1][8]. - Non - ferrous metals: Copper, aluminum, and nickel for observation; tin, gold, and silver for range trading; lithium carbonate for range - bound fluctuations [1][10][12][14]. - Energy and chemicals: PVC for range trading; caustic soda for temporary observation; soda ash for temporary observation; styrene for range trading; rubber for range trading; urea for range trading; methanol for range trading; polyolefins for weak - range fluctuations [1][17][19][20]. - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn for shock adjustment; apples and jujubes for shock operation [1][26]. - Agricultural and livestock: Pigs for rebound - based short - selling opportunities; eggs for hedging post - festival contracts on rallies; corn for cautious chasing of highs and hedging on rebounds; soybean meal for shorting on rallies; oils for strong - range fluctuations [1][29][30][31][32][33][34][35]. 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by a variety of factors such as geopolitical situations, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries and products show different trends and characteristics. For some products, there are potential investment opportunities, while for others, risks need to be carefully considered. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, the prices of copper and aluminum are affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors, and investors are advised to observe; in the energy and chemicals sector, PVC may have long - term low - buying opportunities, while caustic soda is under pressure in the short - term [10][12][17][19]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Index futures: Affected by factors such as Trump's nomination of the Fed chairman and China's PMI data, they are expected to move in a range in the short - term and are promising in the medium - to - long - term, recommended to buy on dips [5]. - Treasury bonds: With no obvious major negative factors in the bond market, they are expected to move in a range, but the downward space of bond yields is limited [5]. Black building materials - Coking coal: The coal market shows short - term fluctuations. Although the price has increased slightly, the sustainability of the price increase is insufficient, recommended for short - term trading [8]. - Rebar: The futures price is slightly higher than the valley - electricity cost of the electric furnace and lower than the flat - electricity cost. With low inventory and small supply - demand contradictions, it is expected to move in a range [8]. - Glass: Although there are negative factors such as inventory, demand, and holidays, the futures price is at a relatively low level, recommended to buy on dips, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [9]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Affected by geopolitical and Fed chairman nomination factors, the price has fluctuated sharply. With tight supply and weakening demand, it is expected to move in a wide range, and investors are advised to control positions and pay attention to inventory changes [10]. - Aluminum: With the pressure on bauxite prices and the increase in alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the approaching of the demand off - season, it is expected to adjust at a high level, and investors are advised to strengthen observation [12]. - Nickel: Affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, the price has risen, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to observe [14]. - Tin: With the supply of tin concentrate being tight and the downstream consumption maintaining rigid demand, it is expected to continue to fluctuate, recommended for range trading [15]. - Gold and silver: Affected by the nomination of the Fed chairman, the prices have corrected, but the medium - term price centers are expected to move up, and they are expected to continue to adjust in a range [16]. - Lithium carbonate: Affected by factors such as supply and demand and mine risks, it is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [17]. Energy and chemicals - PVC: With weak domestic demand and high inventory, but low valuation, it is possible that the bottom has been reached. It is recommended to have a long - term low - buying idea, pay attention to policies such as export tax rebates and cost fluctuations [17]. - Caustic soda: With weak demand and high supply, there is short - term delivery pressure, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [19]. - Styrene: Although it has rebounded due to factors such as export increase and device maintenance, the valuation is high, recommended to be cautious about chasing highs, and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20]. - Rubber: Affected by seasonal supply reduction and weak demand support, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and there is a possibility of further decline [21]. - Urea: With sufficient supply and increasing demand for compound fertilizers, the price is expected to move in a range, and attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer start - up and urea device maintenance [22]. - Methanol: With the reduction of domestic supply and weak downstream demand, the price in the inland market is relatively weak, while the price in some regions is relatively strong due to geopolitical and port arrival factors [23]. - Polyolefins: With increasing supply, decreasing demand in the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [24]. - Soda ash: With supply over - capacity and rising production costs, the price may have limited downward space, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [25]. Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Affected by the global cotton supply - demand forecast report, the price has adjusted after a high - level shock, and it is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and optimistic in the long - term [26]. - Apples and jujubes: The market is generally stable with weak trends, and the price is expected to move in a shock [26][29]. Agricultural and livestock - Pigs: In the short - term, the price is restricted by supply - demand game, recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts; in the medium - to - long - term, the price is cautiously bullish, and the industry can hedge on rallies before effective capacity reduction [29][30]. - Eggs: With low basis and high valuation, it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies, especially the 05 and 06 contracts considering the supply pressure shift [31]. - Corn: In the short - term, the price is supported by supply - demand balance; in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rebounds [32][33][34]. - Soybean meal: In the short - term, the M2603 contract is expected to move in a range; the 05 contract is under pressure, and attention should be paid to support and resistance levels [34]. - Oils: In the short - term, the three major oils are expected to correct but with limited amplitude, recommended to take rolling profit on previous long positions and wait to go long on dips [35][40][41].

期货市场交易指引 交易咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 曹雪梅：Z0015756 电话：027-65777102 邮箱：caoxm2@cjsc.com.cn 全球主要市场表现 | 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 4,151.24 | 0.27% | | 深圳成指 | 14,342.89 | 0.09% | | 沪深 300 | 4,717.99 | 0.26% | | 上证 50 | 3,060.56 | 0.27% | | 中证 500 | 8,601.16 | 0.61% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 53,358.71 | 0.05% | | 道琼指数 | 49,015.60 | 0.02% | | 标普 500 | 6,978.03 | -0.01% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,857.45 | 0.17% | | 美元指数 | 96.3455 | 0.61% | | 人民币 | 6.9453 | -0.18% | | 纽约黄金 | 5,447.80 | 5.18% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions in small quantities for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish movement for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda and soda ash for the time being, range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn, oscillatory movement for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Opportunities for short - selling on rebounds for hogs; hedging post - festival contracts on rallies for eggs; being cautious about chasing highs and waiting for rebounds to hedge for corn; bearish on rallies for soybean meal; bullish oscillation for three major oils [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also emphasizes the importance of paying attention to policy changes, inventory levels, and external market factors [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Market is volatile due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, China's industrial profit data, and consumer spending intentions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. There is no significant negative news in the bond market, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflows [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the price increase may not be sustainable due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The futures price is slightly higher than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat - electricity cost. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction in the short term [7] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is stable, the market speculative demand is weak, and the downstream inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate between 1050 - 1070 [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Macro factors provide support, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see or hold long positions in small quantities, and beware of the risk of a pullback before the Spring Festival [9] - **Aluminum**: High - level oscillation. The supply of bauxite and alumina is relatively stable, and the demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to strengthen observation [11] - **Nickel**: Oscillatory movement. The reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted the price, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - **Tin**: Oscillatory movement. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. It is recommended for range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [13] - **Silver**: Bullish movement. Geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's leadership expectations have pushed up the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Similar to silver, geopolitical and Fed - related factors have led to a higher price center. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious about chasing highs [15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply is affected by mine production, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal is good. The price is expected to be bullish [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended for long - term low - buying and positive spread trading [17] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level oscillation. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - **Styrene**: Oscillatory movement. The price has rebounded due to export growth and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is shrinking, but the inventory pressure remains. The price is in a state of multi - empty tug - of - war [20] - **Urea**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate between 1730 - 1830 [21] - **Methanol**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak [23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The supply is increasing, the demand from PE downstream is declining, and the price is expected to be weak with limited upside [24] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to leave the market temporarily [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the internal - external price difference has put pressure on the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [24] - **Apples**: Oscillatory movement. The packaging and shipping in the production areas have accelerated slightly, but the overall market is still weak [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillatory movement. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Bottom - building oscillation. In the short term, the price is restricted by supply - demand game. It is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, be cautious about being bullish due to high - level production capacity and cost reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. Also, consider hedging the 05 and 06 contracts due to the possible post - poned supply pressure [30] - **Corn**: Limited upside. In the short term, the supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, restricting the price increase [32] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level oscillation. The short - term support for the M2603 contract is at 3000 - 3030, and the pressure for the far - month 05 contract is at 2800 - 2850. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [32] - **Oils**: Bullish oscillation. The three major oils are expected to move strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold previous long positions [38]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the long - term and suggest buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal suggests short - term trading; Rebar suggests range trading; Glass suggests selling on rallies [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests closing long positions on rallies and waiting; Aluminum suggests strengthening observation; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing; Tin suggests range trading or taking profits on previous long positions; Gold suggests range trading; Silver is expected to be relatively strong; Lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC suggests a low - buying strategy; Caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary waiting; Styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; Polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a range; Apples and jujubes are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs suggest waiting for rallies to short; Eggs suggest not shorting in the short - term; Corn suggests caution when chasing highs and waiting for rallies to hedge; Soybean meal suggests shorting on rallies; Oils and fats are expected to be weakly volatile [1] Core Views The report provides trading guidance for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the current situation, future trends, and trading strategies for each product [1] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: In the long - term, they are bullish. Due to reduced geopolitical disturbances, they may trade in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade in a range. There is a relay from trading to allocation, with yields on the long - end falling more [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to trade in a range. Due to weak fundamentals and high inventory pressure, short - term trading is recommended [6][7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade in a range. With neutral valuation and short - term supply - demand balance, range trading is the main strategy [7] - **Glass**: It is expected to be weakly volatile. With inventory transfer to the middle - stream and weakening demand, it is recommended to sell on rallies [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to fall after rising. With short - term support weakening and inventory increasing, it is recommended to close long positions on rallies [10][11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade at a high level. With supply increasing and demand entering the off - season, it is recommended to strengthen observation [13] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade in a range. With a mixed fundamental situation and full market pricing, it is recommended to wait and see [14][15] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. With tight supply and stable demand, range trading or taking profits on previous long positions is recommended [16] - **Silver**: It is expected to be relatively strong. Due to geopolitical tensions and economic data trends, it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious when opening new positions [17] - **Gold**: It is expected to trade in a range. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, range trading is recommended and chasing highs should be cautious [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply and demand factors in balance, price volatility is expected to continue [18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached. With weak domestic demand and high inventory, but low valuation and potential policy support, a long - term low - buying strategy is recommended [18][20] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade at a low level. With high supply and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see [20] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade in a range. With high valuation and uncertain cost - supply - demand improvement, range trading is recommended [21][22] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply reduction and inventory increase, and no obvious driving force, range trading is recommended [22][23] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply increasing and demand stable, it is recommended to trade within a range of 1730 - 1830 [24][25] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply recovery and weak traditional demand, and some regions being strong, range trading is recommended [25] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be weakly volatile. With cost support and inventory transfer, the upside is limited, and shorting on rallies is recommended [26][27] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. With supply contraction and cost support, the downside may be limited [28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to adjust in a range. With production reduction and consumption increase, short - term caution and long - term optimism are recommended [29] - **Apples**: They are expected to be weakly volatile. With slow sales in the main production areas and price fluctuations [29] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to be weakly volatile. With the end of raw material acquisition in Xinjiang and stable market transactions [31] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: They are expected to form a bottom in a range. With high supply pressure in the short - term and slow capacity reduction in the long - term, shorting on rallies and hedging on profits are recommended [31][33] - **Eggs**: They are expected to rebound from a low level. With low - level spot price increase and uncertain long - term supply, shorting should be cautious and hedging on rallies can be considered [33][34] - **Corn**: It is expected to correct from a high level. With short - term supply - demand balance and long - term supply being relatively loose, caution when chasing highs and hedging on rallies are recommended [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade at a low level. With short - term support and long - term pressure, shorting on rallies is recommended [37][38] - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound is limited. With different supply - demand situations for different varieties, short - term caution when chasing highs and spread trading are recommended [38][43]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 26 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 止盈观望 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开单谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡筑底 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - range - bound [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal - short - term trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - sell on rallies [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading; Aluminum - strengthen observation; Nickel - observe or sell on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - hold long positions, be cautious on new positions; Lithium carbonate - bullish range - bound [1][11][12] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - range trading at low levels; Caustic soda - temporary observation; Soda ash - temporary observation; Styrene - range trading; Rubber - range trading; Urea - range trading; Methanol - range trading; Polyolefins - bearish range - bound [1][18][20] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - bullish range - bound; PTA - bullish range - upward; Apple - bearish range - bound; Jujube - bearish range - bound [1][26][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Hogs - short - term short on rallies for near - month contracts, cautiously bullish for far - month contracts; Eggs - range - bound; Corn - short - term cautious on chasing highs, hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; Soybean meal - bullish on dips for near - month contracts, bearish for far - month contracts; Oils - close long positions gradually [1][32][35] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as central bank policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [5][8][11] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors like the Fed chair controversy, central bank policies, and geopolitical events, the market has a fast - rotating main line. After the end of recent positive and negative meeting supports, index futures may range - bound. Medium to long - term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: With the upcoming release of China's loan prime rate and the need to monitor the end - of - year fluctuations in the liability side of broad - based funds, treasury bonds are expected to range - bound [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: There is a game between strong bearish realities (high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand) and weak marginal supports. The short - term balance of power between bulls and bears suggests short - term trading [8] - **Rebar**: After the major meetings, the market is in a policy vacuum. Although there are expectations of weakening steel exports next year, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, so range trading is recommended [9] - **Glass**: With factors such as stable supply at the end of the year, weak demand, and the fermentation of supply - increase expectations for soda ash, the glass market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival, and selling on rallies is advised [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight, but factors like year - end capital tightness and high copper prices suppressing demand limit the upside. Copper is expected to range - bound at high levels [11] - **Aluminum**: Although the macro - atmosphere is good and LME aluminum breaks through the resistance level, the fundamentals are still weak. Aluminum is expected to range - bound at high levels, and strengthening observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply surplus continues. With the uncertainty of the new RKAB policy on nickel ore supply, it is advisable to observe or sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. Tin prices are expected to be bullish range - bound, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Due to factors such as the rise in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the medium - term price centers of silver and gold move up. Hold long positions for silver and trade in ranges for gold [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With strong downstream demand and the continuation of the de - stocking trend, and the risk of Yichun's mining permits, lithium carbonate prices are expected to be bullish range - bound [18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak domestic demand, high inventory, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to range - bound at low levels, and attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as high inventory, alumina production cuts, and winter high -开工 of chlor - alkali enterprises, it is recommended to observe temporarily [20] - **Styrene**: Due to factors such as the geopolitical situation of crude oil, the accumulation of pure benzene inventory, and the limited rebound space of styrene, it is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene and crude oil [20] - **Rubber**: With the end of the domestic production season, the overseas peak - production season, high inventory in Qingdao ports, and weak tire production, rubber is expected to range - bound [22] - **Urea**: With the decrease in the start - up rate, the weakening of agricultural demand, and the increase in industrial demand, urea is expected to range - bound weakly [23] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of domestic supply, the high - level and narrow - range fluctuation of methanol - to - olefins start - up rate, and the weak traditional demand, methanol is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to Iran's situation [25] - **Polyolefins**: With strong supply and weak demand, PE is expected to be bearish range - bound, and PP is expected to range - bound within a certain range [25] - **Soda Ash**: With supply surplus, rising costs, and the reduction of supply contraction, it is recommended to observe temporarily [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With stable consumption and policy expectations, cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish range - bound [26] - **PTA**: Affected by the geopolitical situation of crude oil and the supply - demand de - stocking, PTA is expected to rise in a range [28] - **Apple and Jujube**: With stable market prices, slow inventory movement, and weak trading atmosphere, apple and jujube are expected to be bearish range - bound [28][30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: In the short - term, the pig price is affected by factors such as consumption changes and the slaughter rhythm. In the long - term, it is affected by capacity reduction. Near - month contracts can be shorted on rallies, and far - month contracts are cautiously bullish [32] - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the egg price is range - bound. In the medium - term, the supply pressure eases marginally. In the long - term, the capacity clearance takes time, and attention should be paid to external factors [33] - **Corn**: In the short - term, there is selling pressure, and it is necessary to be cautious on chasing highs. In the long - term, the demand recovers, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to policies and weather [34] - **Soybean Meal**: Near - month contracts are bullish on dips, and far - month contracts are bearish. Spot enterprises can price basis contracts or transfer positions [35] - **Oils**: In the short - term, oils have a sign of stopping falling, and long positions should be closed gradually. In the long - term, they may turn bullish [40]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - Black building materials: Short-term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; sell on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - Non-ferrous metals: Reduce positions on rallies for copper and replenish on low-level stabilization; strengthen observation for aluminum; observe or sell on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold; hold long positions for silver and be cautious about new positions; expect lithium carbonate to trade with a strong bias [1][11][12][18][19] - Energy and chemicals: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; expect polyolefins to trade with a weak bias; temporarily observe caustic soda and soda ash [1][21][22][23][25][26][28] - Cotton textile industry chain: Bullish with a bias for cotton and cotton yarn; expect PTA to rise in a range; bearish with a bias for apples and jujubes [1][30][31][32] - Agricultural and livestock products: Short-term short-selling on rallies for near-term contracts of live pigs and cautious bullishness for far-term contracts; expect eggs to trade in a range; be cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and hedge on rallies for grain holders; range trading for soybean meal, with a bullish bias for near-term contracts and a bearish bias for far-term contracts; be cautious about short-selling for oils and fats [1][34][35][36][37] Core Views - The report provides trading strategies for various futures products in different industries, considering factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy impacts. It emphasizes the importance of risk management and the need for investors to make decisions based on their own investment goals and risk tolerance [1][5][8][9][11][12][18][19][21][22][23][25][26][28][30][31][32][34][35][36][37] Summary by Industry Macro-finance - Stock indices are expected to trade in a range in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips, as US inflation has slowed more than expected [5] - Government bonds are expected to trade in a range, with short - term rates potentially stabilizing if long - term yields do not reach new highs and funding rates remain stable [5] Black building materials - Coking coal market is in a tug - of - war between strong bearish factors and weak bullish factors, with short - term trading recommended [8] - Rebar is expected to trade in a range, with low valuation and weak driving forces, and a weak downward trend [9] - Glass is expected to trade weakly, with a strategy of selling on rallies due to high inventory, weak demand, and potential supply increases [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper is expected to trade in a high - level range, with a strategy of reducing positions on rallies and replenishing on low - level stabilization, due to short - term overheating and potential technical adjustments [11] - Aluminum is expected to rebound, but investors are advised to strengthen observation due to factors such as changes in ore prices, production capacity, and demand [12] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of observing or selling on rallies, as the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to be in surplus [16] - Tin is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of range trading, considering factors such as supply tightness and potential demand recovery [17][18] - Silver and gold are expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of holding long positions for silver and range trading for gold, as the medium - term price centers are expected to rise [18] - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a strong bias, with attention paid to supply disruptions and demand trends [19] Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to trade in a low - level range, with weak fundamentals but potential support from low valuation and policy or cost changes [19][21] - Caustic soda is expected to trade in a low - level range, with investors advised to temporarily observe due to high inventory and potential impacts from alumina production [21] - Styrene is expected to trade in a range, with a focus on changes in pure benzene prices and crude oil pricing [22][23] - Rubber is expected to trade in a wide - range, with support from supply disruptions but limited upside due to high inventory and weak demand [23][24] - Urea is expected to trade in a range, with a relatively stable supply - demand pattern [24][25] - Methanol is expected to trade in a range, with supply recovery, high - level but slightly declining downstream demand, and inventory reduction [26] - Polyolefins are expected to trade with a weak bias, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [26][27] - Soda ash investors are advised to temporarily observe, as the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated after supply contraction and there is cost support [28] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a strong bias, as recent domestic cotton sales are fast and yarn prices are firm [30] - PTA is expected to rise in a range, driven by rising crude oil prices and supply - demand inventory reduction [30][31] - Apples and jujubes are expected to trade with a weak bias, with slow inventory sales [31][32] Agricultural and livestock products - Live pigs are expected to form a bottom in a range, with short - term supply pressure and long - term potential for price recovery after capacity reduction [32][34] - Eggs are expected to trade in a range, with short - term stability, medium - term improvement in supply - demand balance, and long - term supply pressure [34][35][36] - Corn is expected to trade with a weak bias, with short - term selling pressure and long - term support from demand recovery but limited upside [36] - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range, with a bullish bias for near - term contracts and a bearish bias for far - term contracts [37] - Oils and fats are expected to have intensified corrections, and investors are advised to be cautious about short - selling [37][38][39][40][41][42]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 11 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 轻仓持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议多单考虑减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to be observed without chasing high prices [1][5][7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, tin, and gold are for range trading; aluminum suggests reducing long positions when rebounding to high levels; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to be strongly volatile [1][10][13][15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary waiting and watching; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1][17][19][23]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strongly volatile; PTA is expected to rise in a volatile manner; apples are expected to be strongly volatile; jujubes are expected to be weakly volatile [1][25][26][27]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended for near - term contracts, and cautious optimism for far - term contracts; eggs' price increase is limited; corn suggests selling on rallies for hedging in the short term and expecting support in the long term; soybean meal is for range trading; for oils and fats, it is advised to take profits on previous long positions of soybean and palm oil and beware of callback risks [1][28][30][32][34][35]. Core Views - The global economic situation shows some resilience, but there are still uncertainties such as the impact of US tariffs and the monetary policies of major central banks. Different sectors in the futures market are affected by various factors including supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and geopolitical situations, leading to different investment suggestions for each product [5][10][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The external environment has improved, but the market's main themes rotate quickly. Index futures are expected to trade sideways in the short term and are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In December, institutional behavior may be the core variable affecting the bond market. If the market has a conservative expectation for the bond market next year, the intensity of the rally driven by the "front - running" of allocation funds may be weaker than in previous years. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. Market participants are generally waiting and watching. Mainstream coal mines continue to cut prices for promotion, and the overall market sentiment is bearish. It is recommended for range trading [7]. - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fluctuates narrowly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price drivers for both rise and fall are weak. It is expected to trade at a low level, and short - term trading is recommended [7]. - **Glass**: The glass futures rebounded last week due to rumors of production line shutdowns and increased purchases by futures - spot traders. However, the social inventory pressure is huge, and the demand is weak at the end of the year. It is advised to observe without chasing high prices [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The safety situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is complex, and the market is focusing on the long - term contract negotiations of copper mines. The long - term demand for copper is optimistic, but the short - term high price may suppress consumption. It is expected to trade at a high level, and range trading is recommended [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is stable, and the supply of imported ore is expected to increase in December, which may put pressure on the ore price. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The demand is gradually entering the off - season, but the macro sentiment has improved. It is recommended to reduce long positions when the price rebounds to a high level [11]. - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy in Indonesia may bring some uncertainty to the nickel ore market supply. In the medium to long term, the nickel supply is in an oversupply state. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [12][13]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production increased in October. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected that the tin price will be supported, and range trading is recommended [13]. - **Silver**: Fed officials' dovish statements have increased the market's expectation of a rate cut in December. Silver prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [14][15]. - **Gold**: Similar to silver, gold prices are expected to be supported by the expectation of a rate cut and safe - haven demand. Range trading is recommended [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance, and the downstream demand is strong. It is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of mine permits in Yichun and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jiaxiawo lithium mine [16][17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export growth rate is questionable, and the overall supply - demand is weak. It is expected to trade at a low level, and range trading is recommended [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory is high, and the profit of the alumina industry is compressed. The production and reduction of capacity have offsetting effects on caustic soda. It is recommended to wait and watch [19]. - **Styrene**: The rebound of the benzene series is mainly due to the "blending for oil" narrative. The overseas "blending for oil" logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner, and range trading is recommended [19]. - **Rubber**: The price of overseas raw materials has continued to fall, and the supply - side support has weakened. The inventory has been accumulating, and the demand is limited. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner, and range trading is recommended [20]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the industrial demand is strengthening. The inventory is decreasing. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner [21][22]. - **Methanol**: The supply has recovered, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry has increased slightly, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner [23]. - **Polyolefins**: The inventory has continued to decline, mainly due to downstream replenishment at low prices. The demand is weakening after the peak season. PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to be weakly volatile [23][24]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong after the supply contraction. It is recommended to wait and watch [24]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand data is relatively loose, but the domestic cotton sales are fast recently, and the yarn price is firm, driving the cotton price to rebound. It is expected to be strongly volatile [25][26]. - **PTA**: Geopolitical factors have led to an increase in crude oil prices, and the PTA supply - demand is in a state of inventory reduction. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner, and the range of 4600 - 4900 should be focused on [26]. - **Apples**: The inventory of late - Fuji apples is mainly shipped on demand, and the trading atmosphere in the warehouse is average. It is expected to be strongly volatile [27]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition progress of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is about 80%. The acquisition enthusiasm of enterprises is average. It is expected to be weakly volatile [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure is still high, and the demand increase is not obvious. In the long term, the production capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the normal level. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously optimistic about far - term contracts [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term supply - demand is marginally improved, but the long - term production capacity reduction still takes time. The price increase is limited [30][31]. - **Corn**: In the short term, there is still selling pressure to be digested, and it is recommended to sell on rallies for hedging. In the long term, the cost support is strong, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, limiting the upward space [32][33]. - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic and foreign soybean markets have different situations. The supply in the short term is relatively abundant, and range trading is recommended [34][35]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term upward momentum of domestic oils and fats is insufficient, and they are expected to trade at a high level. It is advised to take profits on previous long positions of soybean and palm oil and beware of callback risks [35][39].