农产品日报 | 2025-08-12 供应仍显宽松，猪价震荡调整 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场分析 综合来看，预计未来生猪的供应会继续增加，现货价格预计将会继续承压。消费端的改善存在不确定性，受到现 货供应增加影响导致近期价格快速下跌，市场解读生猪库存去化明显，对远期合约的预期有所改善。但从能繁的 去化程度来看现阶段生猪产能整体的去化并不明显，未来仍需持续关注。 策略 中性 风险 无 鸡蛋观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14140元/吨，较前交易日变动-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.28%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.66元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+-480，较前交易日变动+70；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.87元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.12元/公斤，现货基差LH09+-270，较前交易日变动-10；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.34元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09-800，较前交易日变动+140。 据农业农村部监测，8月11日"农产品批发价格200指数"为114.15，比上周五上升0.21个 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for japonica rice futures remains unchanged at 2758.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] - South Korea is entering the new rice harvest season, leading to a tightening supply and rising rice prices. The government has decided to release reserve rice to stabilize prices [1] - The average retail price of a 20-kilogram bag of rice in South Korea is 58,000 won (approximately 300 yuan), which is over 10% higher than the annual average and approaching the 60,000 won (approximately 310 yuan) price threshold [1] Group 2 - As of the week ending August 10, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn is at 72%, consistent with market expectations, down from 73% the previous week and up from 67% the same time last year [2] - The silking rate for U.S. corn is at 94%, up from 88% the previous week and comparable to 93% last year, with a five-year average of 95% [2] - The wax maturity rate for U.S. corn is at 58%, an increase from 42% the previous week and consistent with last year's figure and the five-year average [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Pig Industry - The current pig spot price is weak, with smooth downstream procurement and normal slaughterhouse deliveries. Local epidemics continue to suppress the market. The market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand. In August, the slaughter volume of large pig farms is expected to recover, and there is also a need to sell the large pigs previously held back by small farmers. Therefore, the short - term pig price is still not optimistic. The spot price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and the near - month 09 contract faces strong upward pressure. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, and blind short - selling is not recommended. However, when the futures market offers good hedging profits, the impact of hedging funds also needs to be considered [2]. 2.2 Meal Industry - Trump's statement that he hopes China will significantly increase its imports of US soybeans has improved the export outlook for US soybeans, leading to a sharp increase in US soybean prices. The recent continuous increase in Brazilian soybean premiums has supported domestic import costs, but the improved outlook for US soybean imports may suppress price increases. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are continuously rising, and short - term supply remains at a high level, keeping the spot price under pressure. In terms of operations, the strengthening support from US soybeans limits the downward space for domestic soybean meal on a single - side basis. However, if domestic supply increases, it may affect the trend of the 2601 contract on the futures market. Considering the relatively strong performance of oils, investors holding long positions should be cautious [7]. 2.3 Oil Industry No clear overall core view was found in the oil industry report, but price changes and related data for various oils such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are presented. 2.4 Corn Industry - The current channel inventory of corn is relatively tight, and some traders are willing to support prices. The number of trucks arriving at the market remains low, but the spot price is running weakly due to weak market sentiment and the upcoming new grain harvest in some areas. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises and feed companies mainly purchase based on rigid demand, with inventory continuously decreasing and no obvious boost in consumption, resulting in general purchasing enthusiasm. In the substitution market, wheat prices are strongly supported by the government's minimum purchase price policy. The price difference between corn and wheat is within the substitution range, squeezing the demand for corn. In summary, the tight supply of remaining grain supports the price, but the weak market sentiment persists, and the futures price remains in a low - level oscillation. In the long term, the cost of new - season corn is expected to decrease, and the output may increase steadily, resulting in supply pressure and a potential decline in the futures price. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [17]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - ISMA predicts that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will reach 34.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The strong production signs have caused the raw sugar price to decline slightly. However, it is worth noting that although Brazil's sugarcane crushing is in full swing and the sugar - making ratio is high, the total sugar production has not increased year - on - year. The expectations of high yields in India and Thailand are high, and attention should be paid to the later weather conditions. It is expected that the raw sugar price will have difficulty falling below the previous low in the short term, but considering the overall production increase pattern, a bearish view should be maintained. The increase in imports and the entry of processed sugar into the market have put pressure on prices. The terminal market demand is average, with most purchases being made as needed, and the willingness to stockpile is low. Therefore, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price is expected to remain bearish [22]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - On the supply side, the spot basis is currently firm. There has been a marginal improvement in the downstream industry this week, but the improvement is not significant. There has been a slight increase in sample orders for grey fabrics in some areas, and the sales of cotton yarn have improved slightly after the cotton price stabilized. The inventory of finished products has stopped accumulating, and the operating rate has temporarily stabilized, providing some support for the cotton price. However, the overall confidence in the downstream industry is still insufficient, and expectations are not high. As the new cotton harvest season approaches, the expected increase in the output of new - season cotton will bring some pressure on the long - term supply. In summary, the domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is listed [23]. 2.7 Egg Industry - Egg prices have reached a phased low, and downstream traders and food factories may replenish their stocks at low prices, increasing the demand for eggs and supporting price increases. However, the high inventory of laying hens ensures sufficient egg supply, and the impact of cold - stored eggs may suppress the price increase. Overall, the egg futures market remains bearish, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of low - level capital fluctuations [26]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Industry 3.1.1 Futures Market - The basis of the main contract decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.97%. The price of the main contract increased by 80 yuan/ton to 14,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57%. The position of the main contract increased by 59,598 lots to 59,600 lots, an increase of 1.00% [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - Spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend, with price decreases ranging from 50 to 200 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.3 Slaughter Volume - The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 866 to 138,986, an increase of 0.63% [1]. 3.2 Meal Industry 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68%. The futures price of M2601 increased by 16 yuan/ton to 3,094 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52%. The basis of M2601 increased by 4 to - 154, an increase of 2.53%. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu changed from m2509 - 110 to m2509 - 130. The import crushing profit for US Gulf shipments remained unchanged, while that for Brazilian October shipments decreased by 12 to 92, a decrease of 11.5%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,950 [7]. 3.2.2 Rapeseed Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 30 yuan/ton to 2,660 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14%. The futures price of RM2601 increased by 37 yuan/ton to 2,506 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.50%. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 7 to 154, a decrease of 4.35%. The spot basis quote in Guangdong changed from rm09 - 140 to rm09 - 150. The import crushing profit for Canadian November shipments increased by 30 to 369, an increase of 8.85%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 5,110 to 9,063, an increase of 129.27% [7]. 3.2.3 Soybeans - The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan/ton. The futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 42 yuan/ton to 4,067 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02%. The basis of the main soybean contract increased by 42 to - 107, an increase of 28.19%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,660 yuan/ton. The futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 3,726 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%. The basis of the main soybean - 2 contract increased by 23 to - 66, an increase of 25.84%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 450 to 13,123, a decrease of 3.32% [7]. 3.2.4 Spreads - The soybean meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) decreased by 2 to - 49, a decrease of 4.26%. The rapeseed meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) decreased by 3 to 267, a decrease of 1.11%. The oil - meal ratio in the spot market decreased by 0.02 to 2.93, a decrease of 0.68%. The oil - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 0.007 to 2.75, a decrease of 0.26%. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market decreased by 10 to 280, a decrease of 3.45%. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2509 decreased by 21 to 588, a decrease of 3.45% [7]. 3.3 Oil Industry 3.3.1 Soybean Oil - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,610 yuan/ton. The futures price of Y2601 increased by 56 yuan/ton to 8,456 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.67%. The basis of Y2601 decreased by 56 to 154, a decrease of 26.67%. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu changed from 09 + 180 to 09 + 190. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,584 to 21,954, an increase of 7.78% [10]. 3.3.2 Palm Oil - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55%. The futures price of P2509 increased by 238 yuan/ton to 9,218 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.65%. The basis of P2509 decreased by 288 to - 238, a decrease of 576.00%. The spot basis quote in Guangdong remained unchanged at 09 + 100. The import cost for Guangzhou Port in September decreased by 60.1 to 9,297.8, a decrease of 0.64%. The import profit for Guangzhou Port in September increased by 298 to - 80, an increase of 78.89%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 850 to 1,420, an increase of 149.12% [11]. 3.3.3 Rapeseed Oil - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 9,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31%. The futures price of 01509 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 9,588 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15%. The basis of 01509 decreased by 44 to 52, a decrease of 45.83%. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu changed from 09 + 80 to 09 + 90. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,487 [12]. 3.3.4 Spreads - The soybean oil inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) increased by 4 to 16, an increase of 33.33%. The palm oil inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) remained unchanged at - 20. The rapeseed oil inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) decreased by 18 to - 5, a decrease of 138.46%. The soybean - palm oil spread in the spot market increased by 50 to - 370, an increase of 11.90%. The soybean - palm oil spread of 2509 decreased by 182 to - 762, a decrease of 31.38%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the spot market decreased by 30 to 1,030, a decrease of 2.83%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spread of 2509 decreased by 42 to 1,132, a decrease of 3.58% [13]. 3.4 Corn Industry 3.4.1 Corn - The price of corn 2509 increased by 7 yuan/ton to 2,262 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31%. The semi - cabin price in Jinzhou Port remained unchanged at 2,300 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 7 to 38, a decrease of 15.56%. The 9 - 1 spread of corn increased by 3 to 74, an increase of 4.23%. The bulk grain price in Shekou remained unchanged at 2,390 yuan/ton. The north - south trade profit remained unchanged at 19. The CIF price increased by 2 to 1,928, an increase of 0.11%. The import profit decreased by 2 to 462, a decrease of 0.48%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 48 to 198, an increase of 32.00%. The position decreased by 4,383 to 1,706,905, a decrease of 0.26%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1,000 to 143,037, a decrease of 0.69% [17]. 3.4.2 Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2509 remained unchanged at 2,642 yuan/ton. The spot price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2,710 yuan/ton. The spot price in Weifang remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton. The basis remained unchanged at 68. The 9 - 1 spread of corn starch decreased by 8 to 82, a decrease of 8.89%. The spread between the starch and corn futures decreased by 7 to 380, a decrease of 1.81%. The starch production profit in Shandong increased by 5 to - 103, an increase of 4.63%. The position increased by 3,282 to 299,462, an increase of 1.11%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,450 [17]. 3.5 Sugar Industry 3.5.1 Futures Market - The price of sugar 2601 remained unchanged at 5,573 yuan/ton. The price of sugar 2509 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 5,678 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%. The price of ICE raw sugar's main contract increased by 0.27 cents/pound to 16.54 cents/pound, an increase of 1.66%. The 1 - 9 spread of sugar increased by 2 to - 105, an increase of 1.87%. The position of the main contract increased by 6,182 to 307,158, an increase of 2.05%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 305 to 18,240, a decrease of 1.64%. The number of valid forecasts remained unchanged at 0 [22]. 3.5.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Nanning decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 6,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16%. The spot price in Kunming remained unchanged at 5,825 yuan/ton. The basis in Nanning decreased by 68 to 282, a decrease of 19.43%. The basis in Kunming increased by 2 to 147, an increase of 1.38%. The import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 4,398 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79%. The import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota decreased by 46 yuan/ton to 5,584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and the Nanning spot price increased by 35 to - 1,562, an increase of 2.19%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and the Nanning spot price increased by 24 to - 376, an increase of 6.00% [22]. 3.5.3 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1,1

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the apple industry is neutral [4] - The investment rating for the red date industry is neutral to bullish [9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the apple market, the spot market is dull, the出库 of old - stored Fuji apples is average, and the substitution effect of competing fruits is strengthening. The price of early - maturing apples is chaotic, and the overall sales in the distribution area are slow. The inventory of apples is at a low level in the same period in the past five years, and the de - stocking speed has slowed down compared with the same period last year [2][3] - For the red date market, there are differences in the views on the new - season jujube production. The inventory in the distribution area is at a high level in recent years, and the price of high - quality goods has risen due to the transfer of goods and downstream restocking demand [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,940 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - The spot market is dull, the出库 of old - stored Fuji is average, with many deals at negotiated prices. The supply in the western producing areas is limited, and spot merchants mainly ship their own inventory. In Shandong, the number of merchants is small, and they are cautious in purchasing, mainly picking and bargaining. The overall出库 speed is slow, and the low - priced striped red apples are the main ones for sales. The demand in the distribution area is poor, and the impact of seasonal fruits is still obvious [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose yesterday. The trading volume of early - maturing apples increased, but the price was a bit chaotic. The overall sales speed in the distribution area was slow, and the sales of different grades were differentiated. The trading of stored apples was still concentrated in Shandong. The de - stocking speed of stored Fuji apples in the production and distribution areas last week was still slow, and the price was gradually polarized. The substitution effect of competing fruits has strengthened, and the sales of early - maturing apples showed a trend of high opening and low closing [3] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. If the terminal consumption remains weak and early - maturing Gala apples are listed, it is not conducive to the de - stocking of stored apples, and the spot price is likely to remain stable and weak [4] Red Date Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11,115 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton or 1.23% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 9.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - In the main producing areas of Xinjiang grey jujubes, the jujube trees are in the growth period, and jujube farmers are actively managing the orchards. The fruit - setting of the first - crop flowers in some orchards was average. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 8 trucks of jujubes arrived, and the merchants purchased according to their needs, with a transaction volume of 20% - 30%. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 2 trucks of jujubes arrived, and the price was stable, but the number of merchants was small due to the weather [6][7] Market Analysis - The red date futures rose yesterday and reached the contract high during the session. The reduction in production in the producing areas was less than expected, and there were differences in the views on the new - season jujube production. The jujube trees in the main producing areas are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage. The inventory in the distribution area is at a high level in recent years, and the price of high - quality goods has risen due to the transfer of goods and downstream restocking demand [8] Strategy - A neutral - to - bullish strategy is recommended. The news from the producing areas has a great impact on the futures market. Given the expectation of production decline and the improvement in spot transactions, the market may run strongly in the future, and the growth of new - season red dates needs to be closely monitored [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Oils and Fats Industry - Concerns over increasing production and inventory in the palm oil market may lead to price weakness. In the short - term, it is necessary to monitor whether palm oil futures can break below the support level of 4,250 ringgit. Domestically, palm oil futures are expected to fluctuate between 8,900 - 9,000 yuan. If the support at 8,900 yuan cannot be maintained, there may be a downward adjustment to seek support in the 8,600 - 8,700 yuan range. - CBOT soybean oil is in a stage of stagnant growth and correction. The expected high yield of US soybeans and possible reduction in demand may suppress the performance of US soybeans, affecting the cost of CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, due to the weak performance of the catering industry this year, the consumption of oils and fats is poor. Traders are waiting for the start of school and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking in the second half of the month. The short - term basis quote has limited fluctuation, and there is a possibility of an increase in the medium - to - long - term [2]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is weakly declining. The current supply and demand are both weak. In August, the supply from large - scale farms is expected to continue to recover, and there is also a need for small - scale farmers to sell their previously hoarded large pigs. The short - term pig price is still not optimistic, and the spot price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The near - month 09 contract faces strong upward pressure. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, and blind short - selling is not recommended. However, when the futures market offers good hedging profits, the impact of hedging funds should also be noted [4]. Meal Industry - The overall trend of US soybeans is weak. Demand is restricted by US foreign trade policies, while production continues to perform well. The rising Brazilian soybean premium and the approaching US soybean listing time support the domestic import cost. Currently, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are continuously increasing, and the short - term supply maintains a high arrival volume and high operating rate. After October, the arrival of soybeans will decline continuously. - The strength of oils may limit the increase in meal prices. US soybeans are expected to have strong support around 970 - 980 cents, and the downward space for domestic soybean meal is relatively limited. Long positions in the 2601 contract on the futures market can be held, but attention should be paid to the fact that the strength of oils may limit the increase in meal prices [7]. Corn Industry - In the corn market, there are differences in the willingness to sell in different regions, with prices rising in some areas and falling in others. The demand side is weak, and wheat is squeezing the demand for corn. In the short - term, the futures price may rebound slightly due to the reduction in sales volume, but the market sentiment remains weak, and the futures price will remain in a low - level oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost of new - season corn is expected to decrease, and the supply pressure is still significant, so the futures price may decline. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [9]. Sugar Industry - In the international market, the production of sugar in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July increased year - on - year, but the cumulative production decreased year - on - year. India and Thailand have full expectations of a bumper harvest, and attention should be paid to the later weather. It is expected that the international raw sugar price will have difficulty breaking through the previous low in the short - term, but considering the increasing production pattern, a bearish view should be maintained, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents per pound. - In the domestic market, the demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. Processed sugar is gradually entering the market, and the price is under pressure. Considering the expected increase in imports in the later period, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price is expected to show a bearish trend [14][15]. Cotton Industry - Last week, the supply - side pressure of cotton decreased marginally, but the downstream of the industry is still weak. After the decline in cotton prices, the downstream is more cautious and pessimistic. The yarn price has followed the decline in cotton prices, and the finished - product inventory of textile enterprises has increased again. Some weaving factories have increased their holiday time, indicating that the industry performance remains weak. Considering the significant decline in the price of the 09 contract recently, positions can be gradually reduced and profits can be taken. Short positions in the far - month contracts can be held [16]. Egg Industry - In August, the theoretical estimated number of laying hens is expected to be 1.363 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.52%. Although the egg - laying rate is lower than normal due to high - temperature weather, the overall egg supply is still increasing due to the release of cold - storage eggs. In August, the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is gradually starting, and the tourism season boosts the catering consumption. The centralized replenishment at the end of the month when schools start will further stimulate demand, and the market demand will enter the peak season of the year. There is a possibility of a rebound in the spot egg price, but considering the large overall supply pressure, a bearish trading strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of low - level funds [21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil** - Spot price in Jiangsu (Grade 1): 8,630 yuan on August 7, up 50 yuan or 0.58% from August 6. - Futures price (Y2601): 8,406 yuan, unchanged. - Basis (Y2601): 224 yuan, up 50 yuan or 28.74% from August 6. - Warehouse receipts: 15,370, up 3,830 or 33.19% from August 6 [2]. - **Palm Oil** - Spot price in Guangdong (24 - degree): 9,000 yuan on August 7, up 50 yuan or 0.56% from August 6. - Futures price (P2509): 8,950 yuan, down 20 yuan or - 0.22% from August 6. - Basis (P2509): 50 yuan, up 70 yuan or 350% from August 6. - Warehouse receipts: 570, unchanged [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - Spot price in Jiangsu (Grade 4): 9,630 yuan on August 7, down 70 yuan or - 0.72% from August 6. - Futures price (01509): 9,496 yuan, down 66 yuan or - 0.69% from August 6. - Basis (01509): 134 yuan, down 4 yuan or - 2.90% from August 6. - Warehouse receipts: 3,487, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads** - Soybean oil inter - period spread (09 - 01): 28 yuan, up 2 yuan or 7.69% from August 6. - Palm oil inter - period spread (09 - 01): - 16 yuan, unchanged. - Rapeseed oil inter - period spread (09 - 01): 6 yuan, down 41 yuan or - 87.23% from August 6. - Soybean - palm oil spread (spot): - 370 yuan, unchanged. - Soybean - palm oil spread (2509): - 544 yuan, up 20 yuan or 3.55% from August 6. - Rapeseed - soybean oil spread (spot): 1,000 yuan, down 120 yuan or - 10.71% from August 6. - Rapeseed - soybean oil spread (2509): 1,090 yuan, down 66 yuan or - 5.71% from August 6 [2]. Pig Industry - **Futures Indicators** - Main contract basic: - 445, down 185 or - 71.15% from the previous value. - Live hog 2511: 14,100 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.64% from the previous value. - Live hog 2601: 14,395 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan or 0.59% from the previous value. - Live hog 11 - 1 spread: - 295, up 5 or 1.67% from the previous value. - Main contract positions: 20,598, up 626 or 1.06% from the previous value. - Warehouse receipts: 380, unchanged [4]. - **Spot Prices** - Henan: 13,950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous value. - Shandong: 13,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous value. - Sichuan: 13,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous value. - Liaoning: 13,500 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from the previous value. - Guangdong: 15,340 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from the previous value. - Hunan: 13,860 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous value. - Hebei: 13,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from the previous value [4]. - **Spot Indicators** - Sample slaughter volume per day: 139,287, up 3,770 or 2.78% from the previous value. - Weekly white - striped pig price: 20.36 yuan, down 0.2 yuan or - 0.83% from the previous value. - Weekly piglet price: 27 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan or 3.85% from the previous value. - Weekly sow price: 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged. - Weekly slaughter weight: 127.8 kg, down 0.2 kg or - 0.14% from the previous value. - Weekly self - breeding profit: 44 yuan/head, down 18.3 yuan or - 29.46% from the previous value. - Weekly purchased - pig breeding profit: - 117 yuan/head, down 45.4 yuan or - 63.58% from the previous value. - Monthly fertile sow inventory: 4,0430,000 heads, up 10,000 heads or 0.02% from the previous value [4]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal** - Spot price in Jiangsu: 2,920 yuan, unchanged. - Futures price (M2509): 3,031 yuan, up 5 yuan or 0.17% from the previous value. - Basis (M2509): - 111 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 4.72% from the previous value. - Warehouse receipts: 10,950, unchanged [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal** - Spot price in Jiangsu: 2,630 yuan, down 60 yuan or - 2.23% from the previous value. - Futures price (RM2509): 2,739 yuan, down 6 yuan or - 0.22% from the previous value. - Basis (RM2509): - 109 yuan, down 54 yuan or - 98.18% from the previous value. - Warehouse receipts: 3,953, up 2,753 or 229.42% from the previous value [7]. - **Soybeans** - Spot price in Harbin: 3,960 yuan, unchanged. - Futures price (Soybean No.1 main contract): 4,134 yuan, up 16 yuan or 0.39% from the previous value. - Basis (Soybean No.1 main contract): - 174 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 10.13% from the previous value. - Spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu: 3,660 yuan, unchanged. - Futures price (Soybean No.2 main contract): 3,741 yuan, up 12 yuan or 0.32% from the previous value. - Basis (Soybean No.2 main contract): - 81 yuan, down 12 yuan or - 17.39% from the previous value. - Warehouse receipts: 13,573, down 48 or - 0.35% from the previous value [7]. - **Spreads** - Soybean meal inter - period spread (09 - 01): - 47 yuan, down 1 yuan or - 2.17% from the previous value. - Rapeseed meal inter - period spread (09 - 01): 270 yuan, down 12 yuan or - 4.26% from the previous value. - Oil - meal ratio (spot): 2.96, up 0.017 or 0.58% from the previous value. - Oil - meal ratio (main contract): 2.77, down 0.005 or - 0.16% from the previous value. - Soybean - rapeseed meal spread (spot): 290 yuan, up 60 yuan or 26.09% from the previous value. - Soybean - rapeseed meal spread (2509): 292 yuan, up 11 yuan or 3.91% from the previous value [7]. Corn Industry - **Corn** - Corn 2509 (Jingzhou Port FOB price): 2,267 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.35% from the previous value. - Basis: 33 yuan, down 28 yuan or - 45.90% from the previous value. - Corn 9 - 1 spread: 72 yuan, up 7 yuan or 10.77% from the previous value. - Shekou bulk grain price: 2,390 yuan/ton, unchanged. - North - South trade profit: 19 yuan, up 20 yuan or 2000% from the previous value. - CIF price: 1,927 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.05% from the previous value. - Import profit: 463 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.23% from the previous value. - Number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning: 163, down 48 or - 22.75% from the previous value. - Output: 1,692,629, down 9,414 or - 0.55% from the previous value. - Warehouse receipts: 145,795, down 630 or - 0.43% from the previous value [9]. - **Corn Starch** - Corn starch 2509: 2,660 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or - 0.08% from the previous value. - Spot price in Changchun: 2,710 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Spot price in Weifang: 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Basis: 50 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 4.17% from the previous value. - Corn starch 9 - 1 spread: 94 yuan, down 3 yuan or - 3.09% from the previous value. - Starch - corn futures spread: 393 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 2.48% from the previous value. - Shandong starch profit: - 118 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 2.48% from the previous value. - Positions: 281,327, up 1,298 or 0.46% from the previous value. - Warehouse receipts: 7,450, unchanged [9]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market** - White sugar 2601: 5,585 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan or - 0.76% from the previous value. - White sugar 2509: 5,667 yuan/ton,

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report 2.1. Fats and Oils Industry - Palm oil: Concerns about production growth and inventory increases in the fundamentals. In the short - term, focus on whether palm oil futures can effectively break below the support of 4,250 ringgit. In the domestic market, it will likely fluctuate between 8,900 - 9,000 yuan. If it fails to gain support at 8,900 yuan, there may be downward pressure to seek support between 8,600 - 8,700 yuan [2]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil is in a stage of stagnant growth and correction. The expected high - yield of US soybeans and possible decrease in demand may suppress the performance of US soybeans, affecting CBOT soybean oil from the cost side. In the domestic market, the catering industry is weak, and fat consumption is poor. Traders expect demand to pick up in the second half of the month. Short - term basis quotes have limited fluctuation, and there is a possibility of long - term increase [2]. 2.2. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is weakly declining. The current supply - demand situation is weak. In August, the supply from large farms is expected to recover, and there is also an need to sell large pigs that were previously held back by small farmers. The short - term pig price is not optimistic. The spot price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with strong resistance for the near - term 09 contract. The far - term 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, and blind short - selling is not recommended. Attention should be paid to the impact of hedging funds [4]. 2.3. Meal Industry - The overall trend of US soybeans is weak, with demand restricted by US foreign trade policies and good production performance. The rising Brazilian premium supports domestic import costs. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, with high arrivals and high operating rates in the short - term. After October, soybean arrivals may decline. The US soybeans are expected to have strong support around 970 - 980 cents, and the downward space for domestic soybean meal is relatively limited. Long positions in the 2601 contract can be held [7]. 2.4. Corn Industry - The sentiment in the Northeast region is poor, with increased willingness to sell and weakening spot prices. In North China, traders' inventories are relatively tight, and the willingness to sell at low prices is low. The short - term futures price rebounds slightly due to reduced selling volume, but the market sentiment remains weak, and the futures price will remain in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, the cost of new - season corn is decreasing, and production may increase steadily, with supply pressure remaining, and the futures price valuation may decline [9]. 2.5. Sugar Industry - In the international market, the strong production in Brazil has pressured the raw sugar price to decline slightly. India and Thailand have full expectations of high yields, and attention should be paid to the weather. The raw sugar price is unlikely to break the previous low in the short - term, but a bearish view should be maintained overall, with attention to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, demand is weak, and low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. With the entry of processed sugar into the market and expected increase in imports, the domestic sugar price is expected to be bearish [14][15]. 2.6. Cotton Industry - Last week, the supply - side pressure of low - basis lint decreased marginally, but the downstream industry is still weak. After the cotton price decline, downstream观望 sentiment and pessimism increased, yarn prices followed the decline, and textile enterprises' finished - product inventories increased again. Some weaving factories have more holidays. Considering the large decline in the 09 - contract cotton price recently, positions can be gradually liquidated for profit - taking, and short positions in the far - term contracts can be held [16]. 2.7. Egg Industry - The estimated laying - hen inventory in August is expected to increase to 1.363 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.52%. Although the egg - laying rate is lower due to high - temperature weather, the overall egg supply is increasing as cold - storage eggs are being released. In August, the market demand will enter the peak season due to Mid - Autumn Festival备货, tourism, and school - opening. The spot egg price may rebound, but overall, a bearish trading strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of low - level funds [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Fats and Oils Industry - **Soybean oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8,630 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 is 8,406 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 224 yuan, up 28.74%; the warehouse receipt is 15,370, up 33.19% [2]. - **Palm oil**: The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,000 yuan, up 0.56%; the futures price of P2509 is 8,950 yuan, down 0.22%; the basis is 50 yuan, up 350%; the warehouse receipt is 570, unchanged [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,630 yuan, down 0.72%; the futures price of 01509 is 8,496 yuan, down 0.69%; the basis is 134 yuan, down 2.9%; the warehouse receipt is 3,487, unchanged [2]. 3.2. Pig Industry - **Futures indicators**: The main - contract basis is - 445, down 71.15%; the price of the 2511 contract is 14,100 yuan/ton, up 0.64%; the price of the 2601 contract is 14,395 yuan/ton, up 0.59%; the 11 - 1 spread is - 295, up 1.67%; the main - contract position is 20,598, up 1.06%; the warehouse receipt is 380, unchanged [4]. - **Spot prices**: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hebei are all declining, with a range of 100 - 250 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 139,287, up 2.78%; the weekly white - strip price is 20.36 yuan, down 0.83%; the weekly piglet price is 27 yuan/kg, up 3.85%; the weekly sow price is 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly slaughter weight is 127.8 kg, down 0.14%; the weekly self - breeding profit is 44 yuan/head, down 29.46%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit is - 117 yuan/head, down 63.58%; the monthly breeding - sow inventory is 4,043 million heads, up 0.02% [4]. 3.3. Meal Industry - **Soybean meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,920 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 is 3,031 yuan, up 0.17%; the basis is - 111 yuan, down 4.72%; the warehouse receipt is 10,950, unchanged [7]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,630 yuan, down 2.23%; the futures price of RM2509 is 2,739 yuan, down 0.22%; the basis is - 109 yuan, down 98.18%; the warehouse receipt is 3,953, up 229.42% [7]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of soybeans in Harbin is 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main - contract of soybean No. 1 is 4,134 yuan, up 0.39%; the basis is - 174 yuan, down 10.13%; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3,660 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main - contract of soybean No. 2 is 3,741 yuan, up 0.32%; the basis is - 81 yuan, down 17.39%; the warehouse receipt is 13,573, down 0.35% [7]. 3.4. Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract at Jinzhou Port is 2,267 yuan, up 0.35%; the basis is 33 yuan, down 45.9%; the 9 - 1 spread is 72 yuan, up 10.77%; the price of bulk grain at Shekou is 2,390 yuan, unchanged; the north - south trade profit is 19 yuan, up 2000%; the CIF price is 1,927 yuan, down 0.05%; the import profit is 463 yuan, up 0.23%; the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning is 163, down 22.75%; the trading volume is 1,692,629, down 0.55%; the warehouse receipt is 145,795, down 0.43% [9]. - **Corn starch**: The price of the 2509 contract is 2,660 yuan, down 0.08%; the spot price in Changchun is 2,710 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang is 2,950 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 50 yuan, up 4.17%; the 9 - 1 spread is 94 yuan, down 3.09%; the starch - corn futures spread is 393 yuan, down 2.48%; the profit of Shandong starch enterprises is - 118 yuan, up 2.48%; the position is 281,327, up 0.46%; the warehouse receipt is 7,450, unchanged [9]. 3.5. Sugar Industry - **Futures market**: The price of the 2601 contract is 5,585 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the price of the 2509 contract is 5,667 yuan, down 0.28%; the price of the ICE raw - sugar main - contract is 16.03 cents/pound, down 0.06%; the 1 - 9 spread is - 82 yuan/ton, down 49.09%; the main - contract position is 161,306, down 6.5%; the warehouse receipt is 18,812, down 0.99%; the valid forecast is 0 [14]. - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning is 5,970 yuan, down 1.00%; the price in Kunming is 5,830 yuan, down 0.17%; the Nanning basis is 303 yuan, down 12.68%; the Kunming basis is 163 yuan, up 3.82%; the price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4,398 yuan/ton, down 0.79%; the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) is 5,584 yuan/ton, down 0.82%; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning is - 1,572 yuan, up 1.57%; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning is - 386 yuan, up 3.50% [14]. 3.6. Cotton Industry - **Futures market**: The price of the 2509 contract is 13,670 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the price of the 2601 contract is 13,832 yuan/ton, down 0.11%; the price of the ICE US - cotton main - contract is 66.36 cents/pound, down 0.84%; the 9 - 1 spread is - 165 yuan/ton, down 3.13%; the main - contract position is 272,133, down 3.32%; the warehouse receipt is 8,329, down 1.59%; the valid forecast is 348, unchanged [16]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15,089 yuan, up 0.04%; the CC Index of 3128B is 15,191 yuan, up 0.09%; the FC Index of M: 1% is 13,420 yuan, down 0.45%; the price difference between 3128B and the 01 contract is 1,419 yuan, up 1.87%; the price difference between 3128B and the 05 contract is 1,254 yuan, up 1.70%; the price difference between CC Index of 3128B and FC Index of M: 1% is 1,771 yuan, up 4.30% [16]. - **Industry situation**: The inventory is 254.24 million tons, down 10.2%; the industrial inventory is 88.21 million tons, down 2.3%; the import volume is 3 million tons, down 25%; the bonded - area inventory is 32.7 million tons, down 2.7%; the year - on - year inventory of the textile industry is 0.80%, down 57.9%; the yarn inventory days are 28.36 days, up 4.1%; the grey - cloth inventory days are 37.24 days, up 1.7%; the cotton outbound shipment volume is 53.46 million tons, up 22.6%; the immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises for C32s is - 2,090.10 yuan/ton, down 1.7%; the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted goods are 1,275.40 billion yuan, up 4.1%; the year - on - year monthly retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted goods are 1.90%, down 52.5%; the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 116.04 billion US dollars, down 3.7%; the year - on - year monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 0.52%, up 131.7%; the export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 151.62 billion US dollars, down 0.7%; the year - on - year export value of clothing and clothing accessories is - 0.61%, down 176.8% [16]. 3.7. Egg Industry - **Futures market**: The price of the 09 contract is 3,391 yuan/500KG, up 0.38%; the price of the 10 contract is 3,292 yuan/500KG, up 0.21%; the 9 - 10 spread is 99 yuan/500KG, up 6.45% [19]. - **Spot market**: The egg - producing area price is 2.92 yuan/jin, unchanged; the basis is - 475 yuan/500KG, down 2.81% [19]. - **Industry indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks is 3.85 yuan/feather, down 0.77%; the price of culled hens is 5.88 yuan/jin, up 4.26%; the egg - feed ratio is 2.64, up 1.54%; the breeding profit is - 10.15 yuan/feather, up 17.68% [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Viewpoints - For soybean meal, the domestic supply is ample with high arrival volume and rising inventory, and the future supply may be more abundant due to positive policy expectations and a strong harvest forecast for US soybeans. The demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory. The price was affected by macro - factors last month, and future supply may be influenced by policy and US soybean growth [2] - For corn, in the early July, the supply increased due to imported corn auctions, leading to a weak price. Later, the supply decreased with lower auction transaction rates. The demand from feed enterprises is weak. The old - crop corn fundamentals are stable, and new - crop corn has not been listed yet, so its yield and cost need attention [4] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3026 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.10% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2745 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 0.77% [1] - Spot: Tianjin's soybean meal spot price was 2980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; Jiangsu's was 2910 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's was 2910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Fujian's rapeseed meal spot price was 2700 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: A consulting firm expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area to increase by 2.0% to 48.6 million hectares, with a 2.5% increase in production to a record 177.2 million tons. As of July 24, the US has sold over 3 million tons of 2025/26 soybeans, a 12% year - on - year decrease [1] Market Analysis (Soybean Meal) - Supply: High arrival volume and rising inventory in the short - term, and future supply may be more abundant due to policy and US soybean production [2] - Demand: Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and mainly purchase as needed, resulting in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [2] Strategy (Soybean Meal) - The strategy is to be cautiously bearish [3] Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2259 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.44%; the corn starch 2509 contract was 2662 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.30% [3] - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3] - Market Information: As of August 3, the US winter wheat harvest progress was 86%, lower than the five - year average; spring wheat harvest progress was 5%, with a 48% good - to - excellent rate, down 1 percentage point week - on - week [3] Market Analysis (Corn) - Supply: In early July, the supply increased due to auctions, leading to weak prices. Later, the supply decreased with lower auction transaction rates [4] - Demand: Feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed, and the demand is weak [4] Strategy (Corn) - The strategy is to be cautiously bearish [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: Not clearly defined, but the symbol indicates a certain state [1] - **豆粕**: Not clearly defined, but the symbol indicates a certain state [1] - **豆油**: Not clearly defined, but the symbol indicates a certain state [1] - **棕榈油**: Not mentioned in terms of rating symbol, but analysis is provided [4] - **菜粕**: Not clearly defined, but the symbol indicates a certain state [1] - **菜油**: Not clearly defined, but the symbol indicates a certain state [1] - **玉米**: Not clearly defined, but the symbol indicates a certain state [1] - **生猪**: One star, representing a bearish bias with limited trading operability [1] - **鸡蛋**: Not clearly defined, but the symbol indicates a certain state [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of agricultural products is complex, with different factors affecting each variety. For example, weather, policy, supply - demand relationship, and trade tariffs all play important roles in the price trends of various agricultural products [2][3][4] - There is no clear - cut trend in most agricultural products at present, and most of them are in a state of shock, and trading opportunities need to be carefully judged [3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs [豆一] - This Friday, there will be a competitive sale of domestic soybeans, with a投放 quantity of 32,000 tons. Northeast soybean is in the pod - setting stage, and the weather is favorable for growth. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans continues to decline [2] - The decline of imported soybeans has slowed down, and they are in a low - level consolidation. Future attention should be paid to domestic soybean production area weather and policy guidance [2] [大豆&豆粕] - The excellent rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period of history. The weather in the next two weeks is normal, and US soybeans are oscillating weakly [3] - In China, Brazilian soybeans continue to arrive at ports, the oil mill crushing rate is stable, and the soybean meal inventory has reached the highest level this year. Before the tariff issue is clear, the soybean meal market is in a shock state [3] [豆油&棕榈油] - Domestic soybean oil continues to be strong today, stronger than palm oil. There are uncertainties in the long - term supply of soybean oil, and it is in the demand peak season in the fourth quarter [4] - The price of US soybean oil has a bottom support, and it is expected to be in a shock - neutral or shock - bullish state in the medium term. The price difference between domestic and foreign soybean oil may converge, mainly through domestic price increases [4] - Maintain the idea of buying on dips for soybean oil and palm oil. Palm oil will face a production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter [4] [菜粕&菜油] - Domestic rapeseed meal shows a slight increase, and rapeseed oil shows a slight decline. The price of Canadian rapeseed futures continues to decline due to favorable weather [6] - The inventory of domestic rapeseed continues to decline, and the import expectation has not improved. The rapeseed meal market is affected by the seasonal peak season of aquatic feed. The rapeseed market will remain in a shock state in the short term [6] [玉米] - The excellent rate of US corn is 73%, and the price continues to decline. In China, the continuous release of grain sources affects market expectations, and Dalian corn futures are running weakly at the bottom [7] - The new - season corn planting area may expand, and there is a high probability of a bumper harvest. The domestic corn market has not yet seen a structural change in supply and demand [7] [生猪] - The spot price of live pigs has a slight decline and remains weak. The far - month contracts except the 09 contract show a slight rebound. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August increases by 6.6% month - on - month [8] - The number of sows and new - born piglets continues to increase, and the live pig futures price is not optimistic in the long term [8] [鸡蛋] - The spot price of eggs is weak, and most provinces are still falling. The 09 contract on the futures market rebounds with a large - scale reduction of positions [9] - In the future, attention should be paid to the holiday stocking demand and the impact of cold - storage eggs on the spot market. The egg price needs to continue to decline for in - depth capacity reduction [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean 1: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Corn: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Live Pigs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] - Eggs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - For the overall agricultural products market, various factors such as policy, weather, supply - demand, and tariffs are influencing the prices of different products, and each product has its own short - to - medium - term trends and uncertainties [2][3][4] - The prices of different agricultural products are affected by different factors, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors for each product, such as weather for soybeans, tariffs for soybeans and bean meal, and seasonal demand for oils [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean 1 - This Friday, there will be a competitive auction of domestic soybeans with a supply of 32,000 tons. Northeast soybean is in the pod - setting stage, and the weather is favorable for growth. The price difference between Bean 1 and Bean 2 continues to decline, and Bean 1 is weaker than imported soybeans. The decline of imported soybeans has slowed down and is in a low - level consolidation. Future attention should be paid to domestic soybean weather and policy [2] Soybeans & Bean Meal - The excellent rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period of history. The weather in the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas is normal, and US soybeans are oscillating weakly. In China, Brazilian soybeans continue to arrive at ports, the oil mill crushing rate is stable, and the bean meal inventory has reached a high level this year. Before the tariff issue is clear, the bean meal market is in a state of oscillation [3] Bean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic bean oil is strong today, stronger than palm oil. There are uncertainties in the long - term supply of bean oil due to tariffs, and it is in the demand peak season in the fourth quarter. The medium - term US bean oil is likely to be oscillating neutral or slightly strong. The price difference between foreign and domestic bean oil may converge to zero or negative values, mainly through domestic price increases. A long - position strategy on dips is maintained for bean oil and palm oil, and palm oil may face a production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal is oscillating, with a slight increase in rapeseed meal and a slight decline in rapeseed oil. The Canadian rapeseed futures price continues to decline due to favorable weather. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the import situation has not improved. The rapeseed meal benefits from the seasonal peak of aquatic feed. The short - term trend of rapeseed products is still oscillating, and attention should be paid to China - Canada economic and trade relations and domestic inventory changes [6] Corn - As of August 3, the excellent rate of US corn is 73%, and the price is still falling. In China, the auction of imported corn has been carried out 11 times since July, with a total of about 268,800 tons, and the transaction rate has been decreasing. Another auction of 19,930 tons will be held on August 8. The continuous supply of grain sources has affected market expectations, and the Dalian corn futures are weak. The new - season corn planting area may expand, and there is a high probability of a bumper harvest. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has declined slightly and remains weak. Except for the 09 contract, other far - month contracts have rebounded slightly with increasing positions. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August has increased by 6.6% month - on - month, and the slaughter volume in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. The long - term focus is on when the industry's capacity reduction will be realized [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is weak, and most provinces are still experiencing price declines. The 09 contract on the futures market has rebounded with significant position reduction as short - sellers take profits. Future attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day and the impact of cold - storage eggs on the spot market. The egg price needs to decline further to achieve in - depth capacity reduction. The price in the first half of next year is more supported, and the off - season contracts in the second half of this year are relatively weak, suggesting a reverse spread strategy on the futures market [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: The sugar market is under pressure due to the expected increase in imported sugar arrivals and the global supply surplus. StoneX predicts a 304 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. However, the low domestic industrial inventory provides some support, but the price advantage of processed sugar continues the weak trend [3]. - **Cotton**: The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high - premium warehouse receipts. The expectation of tight supply and demand at the end of the domestic cotton year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may enter a volatile pattern [13]. - **Jujube**: Due to the rapid weather changes in the production areas, there are still differences in the market's view of the new - season jujube production. Jujube prices may fluctuate in the short term. With sufficient supply of old jujubes, jujube prices will face pressure if there are no major problems with the weather in the production areas [19]. - **Apple**: Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales speed of apples is limited. In Shandong, the number of apple packages is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the apple supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are basically cleared. For new - season apples, the opening prices of Qinyang apples are the same as last year, but the prices have recently declined to varying degrees [23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Spot Price**: The spot price in Kunming dropped by 20 yuan to 5,800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Prices**: On August 6, 2025, SR01 closed at 5,628 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.18% and a weekly decline of 0.67%. Other contracts also showed different degrees of decline [4]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different sugar futures contracts showed various changes. For example, SR01 - 05 was 64 yuan, up 2 yuan from the previous day and 3 yuan from the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of Nanning - SR01 was 392 yuan, down 2 yuan from the previous day but up 73 yuan from the previous week. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was 227 yuan, down 2 yuan from the previous day and up 43 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Import Prices**: The quota - within import price of Brazilian sugar was 4,433 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day but down 61 yuan from the previous week. The quota - above import price was 5,630 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day and down 80 yuan from the previous week [11]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On August 6, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13,850 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan with a 0.22% increase; cotton 05 closed at 13,805 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan with a 0.22% increase; cotton 09 closed at 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan with a 0.26% increase [14]. - **Price Spreads**: The cotton 01 - 05 spread was 45 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the cotton 05 - 09 spread was 120 yuan, up 35 yuan from the previous day [15]. - **Basis**: The cotton basis was 1,514 yuan, up 36 yuan from the previous day [15]. Jujube - Market trend: The jujube price may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the growth of grey jujubes. With sufficient supply of old jujubes, prices will face pressure if there are no major weather problems in the production areas [19]. Apple - **Futures Prices**: On August 6, 2025, AP01 closed at 7,854 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous day and 0.50% from the previous week [24]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.8 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [24]. - **Price Spreads**: The AP01 - 05 spread was - 65 yuan, down 30.85% from the previous day and up 20.37% from the previous week [24].