核 心 观 点 近日，在对等关税政策超预期的冲击下，人民币汇率快速贬值，国内债市也涨回年初水平。那么，汇率对 于利率究竟有何影响？更进一步地，人民币汇率贬值会制约央行货币政策宽松么？ 汇率对利率有影响么？ 汇率和利率本质上并不存在直接的推导关系，历史上 人民币汇率和10年期国债利率多 数时候呈反向关系，即汇率贬值时期往往债市走牛的概率较高。 不过，汇率贬值和利率下行并不一定同时出 现， 短周期内汇率和利率呈正向关系的情况也曾出现过， 持续时间大多都在一个季度以内，汇率和利率很快 仍将回归反向变动，一般出现在汇率和利率反映的经济预期分化或中美关系变化等背景下。根本上，国内利率 水平与货币政策操作密切相关，是对国内经济基本面变化的反映，而汇率仅阶段性影响货币政策节奏，不至于 扭转市场利率的走势。 汇率是货币宽松的掣肘么？ 回顾历史上的三轮人民币贬值周期，央行货币宽松并未暂停。相较于降息直接带 来资本外流而言，降准对汇率的影响相对中性，故在历次贬值周期内，央行对于降息更为谨慎。具体来看，央 行在两轮人民币走贬时期同时采取降准和降息，而在2018年至2019年的人民币贬值周期内，央行并未调降过政 策利率， 主要的区别 ...

美国总统特朗普：利率目前相当平稳，但应该要更好。 ...

欧洲央行管委霍尔茨曼：我认为没有理由根据关税政策偏离之前对利率的看法。 ...

宽幅震荡的重心上下飘忽不定，窄幅震荡的重心基本稳定。很多时候市场是先宽幅震荡，确定多空战场范围（区块），然后再逐渐缩敛窄幅震荡，能量聚 集，做选择方向前的准备。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20250401— "换券"小策略，螺蛳壳里做道场（-资金面偏紧-财新PMI略超预期-股市小幅上涨=小上)】 资金面偏紧转松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展649亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有3779亿元逆回购到期，净回笼3130亿元。 月初资金面并未如期转松，隔夜资金价格仍偏贵，DR001在1.83%附近，尾盘转松。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 04. 01 ) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.92 | -88 | | 2. 78 | -522 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in major stock indices, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 2.35% to 23,344.25 and H-shares down by 2.65% to 8,616.05, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in US-China trade relations [2][7] - Economic indicators show a mixed performance, with Hong Kong's exports increasing by 15.4% year-on-year in February, while imports rose by 11.8% [8] - The report notes that the global economic outlook remains cautious, with the Boao Forum projecting Asia's weighted real GDP growth rate to rise to 4.5% this year, slightly above last year's 4.4% [10] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and H-shares experienced significant declines, with the former down 2.35% and the latter down 2.65% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index also fell, with the latter showing a larger decline [7] - Northbound trading in the Shanghai Stock Connect showed a net buy of 8.479 billion HKD, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect recorded a net buy of 5.416 billion HKD [7] Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's export growth for February was reported at 15.4%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 1.7% [8] - The US consumer confidence index for March was reported at 92.9, below the expected 94.0 [8] - The IFO business climate index in Germany remained stable at 86.7, indicating a cautious outlook for the European economy [8] International Economic News - Former Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard indicated that there is still room for a 25 basis point rate cut, suggesting that the Fed is in a favorable position for policy adjustments [10] - Trump's chief economic advisor downplayed the short-term impact of tariffs on the US economy, suggesting that the effects would primarily affect foreign economies [10] - The European Central Bank's officials expressed concerns about the high risks of economic downturn in the Eurozone [10] Corporate News - Standard Chartered's CFO indicated that net interest income growth is expected to face pressure this year, but the bank plans to leverage its customer network to boost fee income [9] - XPeng Motors announced a patent for a bipedal robot, addressing technical challenges in maintaining a single-leg stance [9] - Galaxy Entertainment is considering a multi-billion dollar investment in a proposed casino and entertainment complex in Bangkok, reflecting optimism in the post-pandemic tourism recovery [9]

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the economic outlook for the first quarter of 2025, focusing on GDP growth, consumption, infrastructure investment, and the real estate market [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Forecast**: The GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 is expected to exceed 5%, supported by strong performance in consumption, infrastructure, and real estate investments, despite weak net exports [2][3]. 2. **Consumption Trends**: Consumption growth for January and February was 4.0%, lower than the expected 4.5%, but higher than the previous year's 3.5% and Q4's 3.8%. The "trade-in" policy implemented on January 20 is anticipated to boost consumption growth to around 4.5% [2][3]. 3. **Infrastructure Investment**: Both broad and narrow definitions of infrastructure investment are expected to exceed last year's levels, with significant increases in water conservancy and municipal projects due to enhanced spending willingness from local governments [3]. 4. **Real Estate Market**: Although the real estate market shows signs of marginal weakness, it has improved compared to the previous year. A potential easing of regulations, such as lowering loan rates, could stabilize its impact on the macro economy [3]. 5. **Monetary Policy**: The current monetary policy is in a moderately tight balance aimed at preventing financial risks, with no significant adjustments expected in the short term. The central bank emphasizes that monetary policy should be viewed as a state rather than a single action [4][5]. 6. **Fiscal Policy**: An estimated 3 trillion yuan in new funds is expected this year, including special government bonds and increased deficit rates. There is a need to expand the range of subsidies to stimulate consumption [5]. 7. **Stock Market Dynamics**: The recent shift in stock market style is attributed to the continuous rise in risk-free interest rates, leading to a rotation from consumer sectors to high-dividend and stable financial sectors [6][10]. 8. **Impact of Overseas Markets**: Adjustments in overseas markets have influenced the risk appetite for Hong Kong and A-shares, with trading volumes indicating a need for stronger upward momentum in the short term [9][10]. 9. **Structural Rotation in Markets**: The market is experiencing structural rotation, with funds moving towards sectors that have not seen significant increases, such as high-dividend stocks, coal, and banking [10][11]. 10. **Future Market Drivers**: For the market to rise further, it requires support from other sectors, including real estate and consumer-related stocks, to create a broader upward trend [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Short-term Interest Rates**: The rise in short-term interest rates may be nearing its end, with the monetary policy currently in a phase of total easing observation [13]. - **Banking Sector Support**: The central bank's recent operations aim to lower costs for banks, indicating a continued focus on supporting the banking sector despite expectations of gradual easing [15]. - **Market Expectations**: The current yield curve is flat, with expectations of potential steepening, but the exact form of this change remains uncertain [19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the economic outlook, market dynamics, and policy implications for the upcoming period.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the importance of macroeconomic analysis in understanding global economic trends and the role of financial services in supporting the real economy [2][12]. Group 1: Analyst Background - Chen Dafei, the Chief Macro Analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Research, has 8 years of experience in the securities industry, focusing on global macroeconomics, monetary policy, and liquidity [3]. - Chen's career includes positions at Dongfang Securities and Guojin Securities, where he led macro research teams before joining Shenwan Hongyuan Research in August 2024 [3]. Group 2: Research Insights - The significance of overseas macro research has grown since 2018, particularly due to the evolving US-China trade relations and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a resurgence of inflation [5][6]. - Chen emphasizes a paradigm shift from a "low interest rate era" to a "high volatility era," where monetary policy becomes crucial in managing inflation [5]. - His research methodology involves a unified approach of "facts-theory-history," focusing on current facts, theoretical understanding, and historical comparisons to deepen insights [9]. Group 3: Professional Development - For newcomers in the industry, a genuine passion for research is essential, as it drives continuous learning and discovery [10]. - Deep thinking skills, supported by a broad knowledge base, are critical for effective economic research [10]. - Proficiency in AI tools is increasingly necessary to enhance research efficiency, paralleling the importance of traditional office software [11]. Group 4: Industry Perspectives - The relationship between finance and the real economy is characterized by both unity and opposition, with financial services playing a vital role in promoting high-quality economic development [12]. - Financial systems exhibit pro-cyclical behavior, which can extend economic expansion but may also lead to instability during downturns [12]. - Long-term economic growth is driven by technological innovation, with finance playing a crucial role in supporting research and development [12]. Group 5: Cultural Influence - The integration of party-building culture within Shenwan Hongyuan Research enhances personal growth and professional thinking, aligning with the broader strategic goals of the organization [14].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the financing demand in the real economy remains to be boosted, particularly in traditional industries, which require further monetary policy support. The current cautious stance of the central bank may lead to continued pressure on the bond market in March, but a potential "targeted reserve requirement and interest rate cut" is expected to materialize in the second quarter, guiding a new downward trend in the bond market [6][14][19] - In February 2025, the total social financing (TSF) increased by 22,333 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7,374 billion yuan. The government bonds contributed significantly to this increase, with a year-on-year rise of 10,956 billion yuan, marking the highest level in recent years. However, the growth of special bonds was limited, with only an additional 1,000 billion yuan in the first two months [8][11][14] - The report indicates that the short-term outlook for the bond market is less favorable, with interest rates likely to rise above 1.90% by the end of March due to banks' needs to realize OCI floating profits. However, in the long term, interest rates are expected to decline again as monetary policy loosening takes effect [6][14][19] Group 2 - The report notes that the central bank believes the current monetary policy is sufficiently utilized, and there may not be a strong necessity for further easing in the short term. The central bank's cautious approach, combined with obstacles in credit issuance, may lead to different market reactions in the short and long term [11][13][14] - The financing willingness of enterprises and residents remains low, particularly in traditional sectors, which still require monetary policy support. The report suggests that the second quarter may see the implementation of monetary policy measures to stimulate financing demand in the real economy and alleviate banking operational pressures [14][19][27] - The report recommends gradually positioning investments around the end of March to capitalize on the anticipated easing of monetary policy in the second quarter, which could drive a new round of strength in the bond market [14][19][27]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese financial market**, focusing on **monetary policy**, **interest rates**, and **economic recovery**. Key Points and Arguments Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - There has been a **decline in long-term interest rates** since December 2024, with recent adjustments indicating a market reaction to anticipated interest rate cuts [2][8] - The **People's Bank of China (PBOC)** conducted a **balance sheet reduction** of **1.6 trillion yuan** in 2024, raising concerns about liquidity tightening, but overall monetary policy remains accommodative with a net liquidity injection of **400 billion yuan** [2] - The **short-term interest rates** have been rising since early 2025, indicating a tightening liquidity environment compared to 2024 [3][4] Economic Indicators and Risks - The **ten-year government bond yield** has shown a significant decline driven by interest rate cut expectations, with a noted **100 basis points** drop in implied future rate cuts [8] - A rapid decline in long-term interest rates poses **financial risks**, including potential instability in safe assets and losses in financial institution margins [9] - The **current economic environment** is characterized by **moderate inflation** and weak demand, with signs of semi-inflation emerging since September 2024 [14] Construction and Fiscal Policy - The **construction industry** is experiencing improved funding conditions, with state-owned enterprises showing moderate growth in orders and revenue [15] - Fiscal policy has been proactive, with **net financing of government bonds** reaching a peak in January 2025, indicating strong government support for economic recovery [16] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending has shown a mixed performance, with strong growth in entertainment during the Spring Festival but a decline in retail and dining sales compared to the previous year [17] Challenges in Monetary Policy - The balance between **growth stabilization** and **risk prevention** in monetary policy is constrained by high risk premiums, with ineffective transmission to the real economy [18][19] - Traditional monetary policy has limitations in reducing risk premiums, as it primarily affects risk-free rates rather than directly influencing investor risk preferences [20] Future Outlook - There is an expectation that long-term government bond yields will stabilize as liquidity conditions shift from loose to tight, necessitating a careful approach to monetary policy [12] - The potential for more effective methods to reduce high risk premiums includes structural monetary policies and unconventional easing measures, although their effectiveness may be limited in the current Chinese context [21] Additional Important Content - The **relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates** has been affected by various factors, including market demand for safe assets and adjustments in institutional investment strategies [10][11] - The **CPI and PPI** have not yet shown a synchronized recovery, indicating that the overall economic recovery requires further observation and support [17]

入场时，是以资金面转松为依据，来下单做多的；但入场后被套了，是因为资金面没有转松，反而更紧；此时，我们不能因为被套，就开始变换入场逻 辑，拿宏观数据走弱，来为自己找理由，进而不去止损。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250121— 当代励志大片：川普归来（+股市在特朗普关税表态扰动下冲高回落+资金面继续缓和=中下)】 资金面均衡，长债收益率明显下行。 央行公开市场开展2560亿元14天期逆回购操作，今日有550亿元逆回购到期。净投放2010亿元。 上午资金面均衡略偏紧，尾盘转松，资金利率小幅下行。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 01. 21 ) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 2.06 | 21 | | 6.00 | 200 | 49713. ...