Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF from Bosera has shown a slight increase in value and liquidity, indicating a stable investment environment with potential for future growth as new capital flows into the market [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 4, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF from Bosera has increased by 0.06%, with a latest price of 112.94 yuan [3]. - Over the past week, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 0.42% [3]. - The ETF's net inflow reached 14.67 million yuan recently, with a total of 240 million yuan in net inflows over the last five trading days [4]. - The ETF has achieved a 13.97% increase in net value over the past year, ranking 4th out of 410 in the index bond fund category [4]. Group 2: Trading and Liquidity - The trading volume for the ETF was 81.78 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.08% [3]. - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 2.264 billion yuan [3]. - The financing net purchase amount was 4.5149 million yuan, with a total financing balance of 33.4793 million yuan [4]. Group 3: Risk and Return Analysis - The maximum drawdown since inception for the ETF is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [4]. - The ETF has a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [4]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [4]. Group 4: Tracking Accuracy - The tracking error for the ETF over the past month is 0.039% [5]. - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year Treasury Index, which reflects the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is to maintain a sideways consolidation trend in the short term. The logic for the upward movement of Treasury bond futures in the medium to long term is relatively solid, and the downside space is limited [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is sideways to the weak side. The core logic is that the manufacturing PMI data is marginally improving, and the probability of an interest rate cut in the short term is not high [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS is sideways to the weak side, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is sideways. Yesterday, Treasury bond futures were all in a narrow sideways consolidation. With the gradual disappearance of tax - period factors, market liquidity has shifted from a tight state at the end of June to a loose state. Recently, the central bank has started to conduct net withdrawals of liquidity in the open market. In the overall macro - environment, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations. The endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is affected by tariff factors. Although the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is not high, the downside space of Treasury bond futures is limited as market interest rates are always anchored by policy interest rates [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The macro - environment and monetary policy have no significant changes, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term. Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations[1][2]. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On Wednesday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened higher and oscillated upward throughout the day. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.40%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.14%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.03%[1] Important Information - Open market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 3653 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2668 billion yuan[1] - Money market: On Wednesday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.36% (1.37% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.51% (1.55% the previous day)[1] - Cash bond market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year decreased by 1.00 BP to 1.50%, the 10 - year decreased by 0.37 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.56 BP to 1.85%[1] - US ADP employment: In June, the US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 people, lower than the estimated increase of 98,000 people and the previous increase of 37,000 people[1] Market Logic - Stimulus policies are continuously introduced: In late June, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the allocation of the third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds and the implementation of equipment renewal loan discount policies, and the Monetary Policy Committee recommended strengthening monetary policy regulation[1] - Industrial profit data: In May, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 9.1% year - on - year (a 3% increase in April), which is favorable for bond market bulls[1] - PMI data: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (49.5% the previous month)[1] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations[2]

Core Viewpoint - The early trading of government bond futures shows positive movements across various maturities, indicating a potential bullish sentiment in the bond market [1] Group 1: Bond Futures Performance - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract increased by 0.01% [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract rose by 0.03% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract also saw an increase of 0.03% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract experienced a rise of 0.05% [1]

国债期货日报 2025/7/2 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 端在期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 57955 | 109.130 | 0.14% T主力成交量 | | 1131↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 45931 | 106.250 | 0.07% TF主力成交量 | | 1382↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.512 | 0.03% TS主力成交量 | 24944 | 34↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 121.180 | 0.4% TL主力成交量 ...

Report Information - Report Date: July 2, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Big - Asset Morning Report [9] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - As of July 1, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.243%, 4.453%, 3.250% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.035% (UK) to 0.052% (Japan), weekly changes from - 0.119% (Brazil) to 0.063% (Germany), monthly changes from - 0.213% (US) to 0.183% (Switzerland), and annual changes from - 0.961% (Japan) to 0.371% (UK) [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 1, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.730%, 3.821%, 1.844% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.013% (Germany) to 0.030% (US), weekly changes from - 0.170% (US) to 0.026% (South Korea), monthly changes from - 0.230% (US) to 0.063% (Germany), and annual changes from - 1.424% (Italy) to 0.438% (Japan) [3] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - As of July 1, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc. were 5.459, 108.000 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.65% (South African rand) to 0.50% (Brazilian real), weekly changes from - 1.20% (Malaysian ringgit) to 0.00% (Russian ruble), monthly changes from - 3.19% (Brazilian real) to 0.00% (Russian ruble), and annual changes from - 11.54% (Thai baht) to 0.49% (Brazilian real) [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On July 1, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc. were 6198.010, 44494.940 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 1.24% (Nikkei) to 1.88% (Thai index), weekly changes from - 0.45% (South Korean index) to 3.26% (Dow Jones), monthly changes from - 1.84% (Indian index) to 6.78% (Nikkei), and annual changes from - 15.03% (Thai index) to 33.52% (Hang Seng Index) [3] Credit Bond Indices - As of July 1, 2025, the US investment - grade corporate bond index, euro - area investment - grade corporate bond index, etc. were 3428.740, 263.071 respectively. The latest changes ranged from 0.04% (euro - area high - yield corporate bond index) to 0.28% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index), weekly changes from - 0.01% (euro - area high - yield corporate bond index) to 0.95% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index), monthly changes from 0.33% (euro - area high - yield corporate bond index) to 2.22% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index), and annual changes from 6.12% (euro - area investment - grade corporate bond index) to 14.36% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index) [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. were 3457.75, 3942.76 respectively. The daily changes were 0.39% (A - shares), 0.17% (CSI 300), etc. [5] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 13.12, 11.26 respectively. The环比 changes were 0.05 (CSI 300), 0.05 (SSE 50), etc. [5] Risk Premium - The risk premiums of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3.70, 5.77 respectively. The环比 changes were 0.00 (CSI 300), 0.00 (SSE 50), etc. [5] Fund Flows - The latest values of A - shares, main board, etc. were - 746.29, - 399.28 respectively. The 5 - day average values were - 280.06 (A - shares), - 209.33 (main board), etc. [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 14660.15, 2360.70 respectively. The环比 changes were - 208.42 (Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets), - 527.51 (CSI 300), etc. [5] Main Contract Premiums or Discounts - The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 56.76, - 27.91, - 66.67 respectively. The magnitudes were - 1.44% (IF), - 1.03% (IH), - 1.12% (IC) [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, etc. were 109.005, 106.205 respectively. The daily changes were - 0.14% (T00), - 0.10% (TF00), etc. [6] - The funding rates of R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4493%, 1.6175%, 1.6280% respectively. The daily changes were - 56.00 (R001), - 39.00 (R007), 0.00 (SHIBOR - 3M) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The early trading of government bond futures shows stability in the 2-year contract, while the longer-term contracts exhibit slight increases, indicating a mixed sentiment in the bond market [1] Group 1: Government Bond Futures Performance - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract remains flat [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract rises by 0.02% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract also increases by 0.02% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract sees a rise of 0.04% [1]

| 重点关注 | 7月01日 16:00 欧元区6月制造业PMI终值 7月01日 22:00 美国6月ISM制造业PMI 7月02日 20:15 美国6月ADP就业人数(万人) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 | | | | | 研究员： | | 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 | 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 | 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 宏观经济指标偏弱，货币宽松预 期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。近期央行在公开市场净投放流动性，市场流动性边际宽 松。回顾方面，5 月信贷、通胀数据表现偏弱，政策托底需要偏宽松的货币 ...

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.02%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.03%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.09%。 国债期货早盘开盘 ...