本刊记者 王红茹 7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，并部署下半年经济工作。上半年经济数据刚刚发布，此次会议备受国内外关注。 《中国经济周刊》记者专访了全国政协委员、中国财政科学研究院原院长刘尚希，解读会议内涵。 这种政策取向既保持了连续性，又为应对不确定性预留了空间。 2 《中国经济周刊》：会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。如何理解？ 刘尚希：去年年底中央经济工作会议和今年政府工作报告均强调要"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"，此次会议提出的"持续发力"，正是对这一政策基调的 延续和坚持。 需要特别注意的是，这些政策表述都具有特定的时代背景和政策语境，必须结合具体形势理解。自去年9月26日中央政治局会议部署一揽子增量政策以 来，直至今年上半年两会期间，宏观政策始终保持积极有为的基调，这正是"持续发力"的实质内涵。 而"适时加力"则是本次会议提出的新要求，意味着要根据形势变化灵活调整政策力度，必要时出台新的政策措施。这体现了相机抉择的宏观调控策略，因 为面对诸多难以预见的变量因素，必须保持政策灵活性和应变能力。 《中国经济周刊》：会议着重强调要"有效释放内需潜力"，与中央经济工作会议提 ...

Group 1 - The core agenda of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is to review the recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, marking the start of a new five-year cycle [3] - The meeting emphasizes that the 15th Five-Year period is crucial for achieving the foundation of socialist modernization, highlighting the coexistence of strategic opportunities and high-risk periods [3] Group 2 - The meeting signals a shift in economic work priorities, placing employment stability above growth stability, with a focus on promoting employment for key groups such as college graduates, veterans, and migrant workers [4] - There will be an upgrade in fiscal and monetary policy coordination, including accelerated government bond issuance and maintaining ample liquidity in the monetary system, indicating potential further reductions in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4] - The meeting outlines a dual-track approach to stimulate domestic demand, focusing on both consumption and effective investment, with an emphasis on ensuring livelihood support as a foundation for consumption capacity [4] Group 3 - Consumption stimulation will shift from expanding goods to upgrading services, with policies targeting major consumption areas and new growth points in service consumption, particularly in sectors like tourism, health care, and digital content [5] - The government will focus on high-quality construction of major strategic projects and infrastructure, with an emphasis on long-term project benefits and stimulating private investment [5] - The meeting highlights the need for capacity governance in key industries, such as steel and cement, and emphasizes the integration of technological and industrial innovation, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductors and AI [6] Group 4 - This meeting marks a transition from crisis response to medium- and long-term reconstruction, with a policy combination characterized by livelihood support, industrial upgrading, and risk clearing, suggesting a collaborative fiscal and monetary effort in the second half of the year [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]

Group 1 - The core focus of the articles is the emphasis on expanding domestic demand as a priority for China's economic strategy in the second half of the year, with a particular focus on boosting consumption and effective investment [1][2]. - The Central Political Bureau has highlighted the need to implement special actions to stimulate consumption, aiming to convert potential demand into a strong driving force for the domestic economy [2][3]. - Experts suggest that improving residents' consumption capacity and willingness is essential, which involves increasing income and reducing financial burdens through various policy measures [2][3]. Group 2 - Service consumption is identified as a key area for expansion, with the People's Bank of China announcing a 500 billion yuan loan facility aimed at promoting service consumption and elderly care [3]. - The articles indicate a shift in investment focus from quantity to quality, emphasizing the importance of effective investment in new infrastructure, urbanization, and public services [3]. - Urban renewal is highlighted as a critical area for investment, with recent meetings underscoring its potential to significantly impact the macroeconomic landscape [3].

华夏时报记者于建平见习记者黄蓓北京报道 7月28日，中国汽车技术研究中心有限公司中国汽车战略与政策研究中心教授级高级工程师吴松泉发表专论文章——《吴松泉：是时候全面彻底取消汽车 限购了》。"汽车限购"这个汽车行业的老话题又再次被重新提起。 7月16日，国务院常务会议指出："做强国内大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举""要找准关键着力点，深入实施提振消费专项行动，系统清理制约居民 消费的不合理限制""要聚焦突出问题，提高政策精准度和可操作性，加强部门间协同配合，汇聚政策落实的合力，加快破解制约国内大循环的堵点卡 点"。 吴松泉认为，在当前扩大内需已经成为经济工作的头号任务的情况下，对汽车实施限购，已经不符合当前经济工作的要求，不符合中央关于做强国内大循 环和全方位扩大国内需求的要求。 部分限购城市已具备彻底解限的条件 今年3月，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》：各地区各有关部门要结合实际，及时清理对消费的不合理限制，不得搞"一刀 切"和层层加码。推动汽车等消费由购买管理向使用管理转变，分年限保障"久摇不中"无车家庭购车需求。 自中央政府启动刺激消费政策以来，一些对汽车进行限行限购的城市陆 ...

Group 1: Economic Work Deployment - 31 provinces and regions are focusing on expanding domestic demand, developing new productive forces, and stabilizing foreign trade as key priorities for the second half of the year [1][2] - The deployment reflects the urgency of local governments to stabilize growth and the need for innovative policy execution to activate endogenous economic momentum [1][3] - Short-term measures like issuing consumption vouchers may boost data but lack long-term effectiveness without a sustainable mechanism [1][2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investment in super long-term special government bonds and urban renewal projects is emphasized, but there is a warning against "investing for the sake of investment" [1][2] - Effective investment should focus on practical areas such as upgrading old residential communities and county-level cold chain logistics, which can drive employment and enhance economic resilience [1][2] Group 3: New Productive Forces - The term "new productive forces" is frequently mentioned, with many regions pursuing artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy sectors [2] - Caution is advised against blind imitation, as some regions lack the foundational research capabilities to support ambitious projects like chip industrial parks, leading to underutilization [2] - The core of new productive forces lies in technological innovation and industrial collaboration, with a recommendation for regions to develop based on their unique endowments [2] Group 4: Foreign Trade Challenges - In the context of increasing global trade friction, regions are urged to stabilize orders and expand markets, as traditional low-cost competition is becoming unsustainable [2][3] - The key to foreign trade transformation is enhancing product added value rather than relying solely on subsidies or overseas warehouse construction [2][3] Group 5: Market Expansion Opportunities - Initiatives like the "Belt and Road" and China-Europe Railway Express present market expansion opportunities, but participation from small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises remains low due to information gaps and risk concerns [3] - Local governments are encouraged to create service platforms to provide market analysis and legal consulting, thereby lowering the barriers for enterprises to "go global" [3] - Encouraging the integration of foreign and domestic trade can help adapt export-to-domestic sales enterprises to local standards, forming a "dual circulation" support system [3]

国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会发布的数据显示，7月份，受制造业进入传统生产 淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)降至49.3%，比上月下降 0.4个百分点。非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.1%和50.2%，比上月下降0.4个和0.5 个百分点，均持续高于临界点。国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示，我国经济总体产出 保持扩张。 7月份，我国多地遭遇高温热浪、暴雨洪涝以及干旱等极端天气，给户外施工作业、居民日常生活等带 来阻碍，进而影响到市场需求释放。制造业新订单指数为49.4%，较上月下降0.8个百分点。生产指数为 50.5%，虽较上月下降0.5个百分点，仍连续3个月运行在扩张区间。中国物流信息中心专家文韬认为， 虽然制造业生产活动扩张势头短期有所放缓，但稳中有增态势没有改变。 新动能持续增长。7月份，装备制造业和高技术制造业PMI分别为50.3%和50.6%，均持续高于临界点， 高端装备制造业保持扩张；消费品行业PMI为49.5%，比上月下降0.9个百分点；高耗能行业PMI为 48%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气度有所改善。 ...

Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, yet remaining above the critical point [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, while the production index was at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points but still indicating expansion for three consecutive months [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in high-end equipment manufacturing [1] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, marking the first time since March that it exceeded the critical point, while the factory price index was at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points [2] - Industries such as petroleum, coal, and black metal processing saw significant rebounds in their purchasing and factory price indices, indicating improved market prices [2] Business Activity by Enterprise Size - In July, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, with production and new orders indices at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, indicating sustained expansion [2] - The PMI for medium-sized enterprises increased to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, while small enterprises saw a PMI of 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, with construction activity slowing due to adverse weather, reflected in a business activity index of 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points [4] - Sectors related to travel and consumption, such as railway and air transport, maintained high business activity indices above 60%, indicating robust growth [4] Future Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations due to extreme weather, the overall economic foundation remains solid, with large enterprises continuing to play a stabilizing role [3] - The manufacturing sector's production activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, indicating optimism for future performance [3] - Non-manufacturing enterprises maintain stable optimism, with a business activity expectation index of 55.8%, suggesting continued growth in investment and consumption activities in the second half of the year [4]

Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points from June, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and extreme weather conditions [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, and the comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2%, suggesting overall economic output remains in an expansion phase [1][4] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index and new orders index were recorded at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, both showing a decline from June, while the new export orders index fell to 47.1% [2] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, with key sectors like equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintaining PMIs of 50.3% and 50.6%, indicating ongoing expansion [2][3] Price Trends - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw material purchase price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, both increasing from June [3] - The rise in prices was attributed to the increase in prices of major commodities such as coal and steel, which significantly impacted the manufacturing PMI [3] Service Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained above 50%, indicating continued expansion despite a slight decline from June [4][5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable, with certain industries related to travel and consumption experiencing high activity levels, while construction activities slowed due to adverse weather [4][5] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that macroeconomic policies should be adjusted to stimulate demand, particularly through increased government investment in public goods and infrastructure [4] - The upcoming summer consumption is expected to positively influence economic activity in August, supported by ongoing policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [5]

Group 1 - The recent economic work deployment by 31 provinces emphasizes expanding domestic demand, developing new productive forces, and stabilizing foreign trade as the three main focuses [1][2] - Local governments are implementing measures such as issuing consumption vouchers and promoting project construction to boost consumption and investment, but these short-term measures may not address the underlying issues of consumer confidence and spending [1][2] - Effective investment should focus on practical areas that enhance people's livelihoods and industrial upgrades, rather than large-scale projects that may lead to resource waste [1][2] Group 2 - The concept of developing new productive forces is gaining traction, with many regions focusing on emerging industries like artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy, but there is a risk of redundant construction and resource misallocation [2][3] - There is a need for a shift in policy focus towards supporting research and development and talent cultivation, rather than just equipment procurement [2][3] - The transformation of foreign trade is crucial, as traditional low-cost competition is becoming unsustainable; enhancing product value is key to overcoming challenges from Southeast Asia and market barriers in Europe and the U.S. [2][3] Group 3 - Initiatives like the Belt and Road and China-Europe Railway Express present opportunities for market expansion, but participation from small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises remains low due to information gaps and risk concerns [3] - Local governments are encouraged to create service platforms to facilitate market entry for businesses and promote the integration of foreign and domestic trade [3] - The effectiveness of the economic deployment will depend on precise execution and local adaptation to find breakthrough points in consumption, investment, industry, and foreign trade [3]