Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the social services sector has shown stable growth in cultural and tourism consumption during the first three quarters of 2025, with domestic travel reaching 4.998 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [4][30]. - The report anticipates that upcoming policies aimed at promoting service consumption will provide further benefits to the industry [4]. - The social services sector's performance in the last two trading weeks was an increase of 0.83%, ranking 7th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification [1][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's sub-sectors showed varied performance, with tourism retail leading at +2.80%, followed by professional services at +1.81% and tourism and scenic spots at +1.13% [16]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the social services industry is 34.83 times, which is at the 31.83% historical percentile, compared to the 13.69 times for the CSI 300 index at the 66.90% historical percentile [20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth certainty in the travel chain and related industries, including Tongcheng Travel, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Co., among others [4]. - It also highlights the potential benefits for hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel due to the recovery of business travel and increased market share post-pandemic [4]. Industry Company News - The report notes that the domestic travel market remains robust, with a significant increase in both the number of trips and spending, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [30]. - It mentions the recent adjustments to the Hainan duty-free shopping policy, which is expected to enhance the tourism experience and boost consumption [29].

大国经济都是内需为主导，市场是当今世界最稀缺的资源，强大国内市场是中国式现代化的战略依托。 我国产业体系和基础设施体系配套完善，14亿多人口的超大规模市场潜力巨大。面向未来，无论是深入 推进以人为本的新型城镇化、大力实施城市更新行动，还是扎实推进乡村全面振兴、在发展中稳步提升 民生保障水平，都将有力促进投资和消费良性循环，释放巨大内需潜力。 全会提出坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，体现了实施扩大内需战略的连贯性。坚持惠民生和促消费、投资 于物和投资于人紧密结合，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，旨在增强国内大循环内生动力和可 靠性。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，打通各种卡点堵点，破除地方保护和市场分割，综合整治"内卷 式"竞争，旨在充分释放我国超大规模市场红利。加快构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制，充分激发各 类经营主体活力，加快完善要素市场化配置体制机制，实现市场有效有序、政府有为有度，必将进一步 增强高质量发展动力。 全会对扩大高水平对外开放作出部署，展现了中国坚持开放合作、互利共赢的信心和决心。今年前三季 度，我国货物贸易进出口同比增长4%，其中出口同比增长7.1%，绘出逆势上扬曲线。尽管单边主义、 保护主义逆 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese economy, focusing on key policies set forth during the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, as well as implications for the bond market and various sectors within the economy. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Emphasis on Core Industries** China aims to strengthen its core industries, including manufacturing, quality, internet, aerospace, and transportation, to counter global de-globalization risks [3][4] 2. **Technological Development as a Priority** Technological advancement is identified as a crucial driver of new productive forces, with the new economy contributing approximately 17-18% to GDP. Future efforts will focus on original innovation and tackling key core technologies [3][4] 3. **Expansion of Domestic Demand** The strategy to expand domestic demand is highlighted, with an emphasis on integrating material and human investments to stimulate consumption and investment. Special government bonds may be used to support consumption subsidies [3][4] 4. **Real Estate Sector Focus** For the first time, the real estate sector is addressed in the context of people's livelihoods, with a push for high-quality development that returns to its residential nature. This indicates a policy shift to mitigate the economic drag from the real estate sector [3][4] 5. **Local Government Debt Management** The need to manage local government debt risks is reiterated, with expectations for new debt limits to be issued early next year. The government may increase bond issuance and align monetary policy with potential rate cuts [4][5] 6. **Market Liquidity and Interest Rates** The People's Bank of China may restart net purchases of government bonds to enhance market liquidity, with expectations for the effective repurchase rate to decrease from the current range of 1.8-1.85% to 1.75-1.8% [4][5] 7. **Impact of U.S.-China Trade Relations** Ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and their outcomes are expected to influence market sentiment and the bond market's direction [4][8] 8. **Performance of Key Sectors** The third-quarter earnings reports indicate strong performance in sectors such as communication equipment, electronic semiconductors, chemicals, and industrial metals, particularly in AI computing and consumer electronics [11] 9. **Foreign Capital Inflows** Recent weeks have seen strong foreign capital inflows into the A-share market, with October's inflow reaching a multi-year high. In contrast, foreign interest in Hong Kong stocks remains weaker [12] 10. **New vs. Old Economic Drivers** The transition from old to new economic drivers is accelerating, with significant growth in new productive forces, particularly in computing power and cloud computing, which have seen increases of around 1.5 times [13] 11. **Investment Value of Anti-Overwork Policies** Anti-overwork policies are expected to impact various sectors, including photovoltaics and steel, presenting investment opportunities aligned with new productive forces [14] 12. **Consumer Sector Investment Logic** Investment in the consumer sector should focus on fundamental performance, with specific attention to sectors like light manufacturing, textiles, and agriculture, which have shown strong performance [15] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for further monetary policy adjustments, including rate cuts, is anticipated in response to economic data releases [5] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide detailed policy guidance, particularly regarding modern industrial systems and domestic market strength [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic goals and initiatives outlined in the recent 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, focusing on high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and comprehensive reforms during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][12][21]. Economic and Social Development Goals - The main objectives for the 14th Five-Year Plan include achieving significant results in high-quality development, maintaining reasonable economic growth, and significantly improving the resident consumption rate [21]. - Other goals include enhancing technological self-reliance, deepening reforms, improving social civilization, increasing the quality of life, advancing ecological progress, and strengthening national security [21]. Consumption and Livelihood - The National Development and Reform Commission highlighted the potential for significant expansion and quality improvement in the service sector, emphasizing the need to boost consumption and increase government investment in livelihood-related areas [3]. Investment - Infrastructure investment will focus on comprehensive planning and the construction of new infrastructure, with an estimated investment demand exceeding 5 trillion yuan for the renovation of over 700,000 kilometers of underground pipelines during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. - The plan aims to establish around 100 national-level zero-carbon parks and optimize the layout of strategic industries and resource bases [3]. Financial Sector - The financial sector is urged to prioritize risk prevention and regulatory strength while promoting high-quality development, with a focus on maintaining stability in financial markets [4][26]. - The People's Bank of China emphasized the importance of centralized leadership in financial work and the need for a robust financial stability guarantee system [4][26]. Technology and Industry Deployment - The strategy includes building a modern industrial system and enhancing the competitiveness of traditional industries while fostering emerging industries such as renewable energy and advanced manufacturing [5][22]. - Key technological advancements will focus on critical core technologies and the integration of technology with industry [5][22]. Foreign Trade and Investment - The plan aims to promote the internationalization of the renminbi and expand high-standard free trade agreements, particularly in the service sector [6][24]. - Efforts will be made to enhance trade innovation and expand bilateral investment cooperation [24]. Market Unification and Anti-Competition Measures - The strategy includes unifying market regulations to eliminate local protectionism and market fragmentation, addressing "involution" competition [6][24]. Anti-Corruption Efforts - The article outlines ongoing efforts to combat corruption and improve the supervision system within the party and state, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a clean political environment [7][25]. Upcoming Events - The upcoming release of the 14th Five-Year Plan recommendations and the APEC summit in South Korea are highlighted as significant events to watch [8].

新华社北京10月27日电 人民日报10月28日评论员文章：加快构建新发展格局，牢牢把握发展主动 ——论学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神 加快构建新发展格局是以习近平同志为核心的党中央统筹发展和安全作出的重大战略决策，是把握 我国发展主动权的战略性布局。党的二十届四中全会深入分析"十五五"时期我国发展环境面临的深刻复 杂变化，对做强国内大循环、畅通国内国际双循环作出系统谋划和战略部署。 2020年初，世纪疫情冲击下全球产业链供应链发生局部断裂，直接影响到我国国内经济循环。习近 平总书记在地方考察时意识到"大进大出的环境条件已经变化，必须根据新的形势提出引领发展的新思 路"，由此酝酿了"双循环"的新发展格局。关键时刻的关键抉择，深化了我们党对由经济大国向经济强 国转变的规律性认识，明确了我国经济现代化的路径选择，引领中国经济航船劈波斩浪、行稳致远。 全会提出坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，体现了实施扩大内需战略的连贯性。坚持惠民生和促消费、 投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，旨在增强国内大循环内生动力 和可靠性。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，打通各种卡点堵点，破除地方保护和市场分割，综合整 治 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic decision made by the Chinese government to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focusing on strengthening domestic circulation while optimizing the domestic and international dual circulation system [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Domestic Circulation - The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 is projected to reach 86.4% [2]. - The total import and export volume of goods is expected to increase from 32.2 trillion yuan in 2020 to 43.8 trillion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 8.0% [2]. - The article highlights the importance of a strong domestic market as a strategic foundation for China's modernization, leveraging the vast market potential of over 1.4 billion people [3]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption - The article discusses the need to promote a virtuous cycle of investment and consumption, emphasizing the integration of improving people's livelihoods and stimulating consumption [3]. - It advocates for the construction of a unified national market to eliminate barriers and enhance market efficiency, thereby releasing the benefits of China's large-scale market [3]. Group 3: International Cooperation and Openness - The article outlines the commitment to expand high-level opening-up, despite challenges from unilateralism and protectionism, with a focus on maintaining a multilateral trade system [4]. - It notes that in the first three quarters of the year, China's goods trade imports and exports grew by 4% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 7.1% [4].

Core Viewpoint - China's economy demonstrated steady progress and improved quality in Q3 2025, with GDP growth of 4.8% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, indicating resilience amid various pressures and challenges [1] Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP reached 101.5 trillion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous year's growth rate by 0.4 percentage points [1] - The GDP for Q3 alone amounted to 35.45 trillion yuan, exceeding the projected total for the world's third-largest economy in 2024 [1] New Quality Productivity - The formation of new quality productivity is accelerating, with significant growth in high-tech manufacturing, which saw a 9.6% year-on-year increase in value added for large-scale high-tech manufacturing industries [2] - Industrial capacity utilization rates rose to 74.6%, and the sales rate for large-scale industrial enterprises reached 96.8% by the end of Q3 [2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Social retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with final consumption expenditure contributing 53.5% to economic growth, up by 9.0 percentage points from the previous year [3] - The trend towards green, intelligent, and health-oriented consumption is evident, with significant growth in categories such as home appliances and furniture [3] Trade and Exports - China's imports and exports achieved stable growth, with a 6% increase in Q3, marking eight consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth [4] - High-tech product exports rose by 11.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, supported by favorable policies and rising demand for industrial upgrades [4] Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is crucial for completing the annual economic performance and setting the stage for the next five-year plan, with expectations for continued support for high-quality economic development [5] - The ongoing macroeconomic policies and reforms are anticipated to bolster the economy's resilience and contribute positively to global economic recovery [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasizes the construction of a strong domestic market and accelerating the formation of a new development pattern [1] - The focus is on boosting consumption and effective investment, with a strategic basis on expanding domestic demand [1][4] - The latest consumption data shows a retail sales total of 36,587.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a growth rate of 4.5% [1] Group 2: Consumption and Investment Dynamics - There is a need to enhance domestic circulation's endogenous power to stimulate consumption effectively [5] - The distinction between "boosting consumption" and "effective investment" is highlighted, with consumption prioritized without conditions [6] - Effective investment should focus on new infrastructure and high-tech sectors rather than traditional infrastructure, which has seen a decline [6][8] Group 3: New Infrastructure and Market Demand - New infrastructure projects should align with real market demands and resource allocation to enhance economic density [7] - The upcoming 500 billion yuan policy tool aims to support new infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, differing from previous tools that included traditional infrastructure [8] Group 4: Social Welfare and Employment - The Fourth Plenary Session stresses the importance of improving public welfare to stimulate private consumption, especially in the context of an aging population [9] - Development of the service industry is crucial for job creation, with suggestions to relax regulations in certain sectors to enhance employment opportunities [11] - The focus on high-quality employment and the need for effective taxation on wealth to encourage domestic consumption are also discussed [11][10]

Economic News - The 28th ASEAN Plus China, Japan, and South Korea Leaders' Meeting emphasized the importance of open cooperation and strategic alignment to enhance economic potential through environmental improvement, deepening industrial chain collaboration, and fostering new growth drivers [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced plans for significant domestic investment and trade diversification, aiming to double exports to non-U.S. markets over the next decade, exceeding CAD 300 billion [1] - From January to September, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China increased by 3.2% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since August of the previous year [1] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the total demand for food cold chain logistics in the third quarter reached 117 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.72% [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the U.S. government's debt burden may exceed that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century, with total debt projected to rise over 20% to 143.4% of GDP by the end of the decade [1] Company Insights - Rio Tinto Group and State Power Investment Corporation launched a pilot project for pure electric battery swap mining trucks at the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia, marking the first use of this technology in an open-pit mine [4] - Yongmaotai reported third-quarter revenue of CNY 1.655 billion, a year-on-year increase of 59.65%, with net profit soaring by 6319.92% to CNY 30.41 million [4] - Delin Hai's third-quarter revenue reached CNY 185 million, up 94.96% year-on-year, while net profit surged by 1322.74% to CNY 48.73 million [4] - Knight Dairy's third-quarter revenue was CNY 246 million, down 6.78%, but net profit increased by 189.26% to CNY 22.73 million [4] - Porsche, a subsidiary of Volkswagen Group, reported a third-quarter loss of EUR 966 million (approximately CNY 8 billion), leading to a 99% year-on-year decline in sales profit for the first three quarters [4] Industry Analysis - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the importance of high-quality development and technological self-reliance as core foundations for future growth, aiming to transition from a follower to a leader in the global industrial chain [6][7] - The meeting highlighted the need to build a modern industrial system and strengthen the real economy, with a focus on becoming a manufacturing, quality, aerospace, transportation, and internet power [6] - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly those related to self-reliance, will be a key area for investment, with a positive outlook for companies in this space [7] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a shift towards lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers, as evidenced by the introduction of new low-alcohol products at recent trade fairs [10][11] - The logistics industry is seeing a recovery in single-ticket revenue, with major players like Shentong and Yunda reporting significant increases in revenue per ticket [22][23] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on technology sectors, particularly those with strong performance indicators, as the market shifts back to fundamentals with the release of quarterly reports [7] - In the food and beverage sector, attention is drawn to leading companies like Guizhou Moutai, which are showing signs of recovery despite short-term price fluctuations [11] - For the chemical industry, investment opportunities are identified in sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics and those driven by capital expenditure and R&D [27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" as a crucial step towards achieving the second centenary goal by 2035, focusing on high-quality economic development and the balance between qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth [2][3]. - The plan sets a target for maintaining an average annual GDP growth rate of over 4.5% over the next decade, aiming for a per capita GDP exceeding $20,000 by 2035 [3]. - The article highlights the significance of innovation-driven economic development, particularly through the integration of technological and industrial innovation, with a focus on enhancing the productive service sector [5][6]. Group 2 - The article discusses the need for a virtuous cycle between consumption and investment to expand domestic demand, marking a significant shift in macroeconomic policy towards boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency [8][9]. - It suggests that effective consumption can stimulate total demand and promote high-quality investment, advocating for a balanced interaction between consumption and investment [8][9]. - The article also mentions the importance of tax reforms to enhance local government incentives for promoting consumption, such as optimizing the VAT distribution mechanism [9]. Group 3 - The article addresses the internationalization of the RMB and the need for exchange rate policies to adapt to new circumstances, highlighting China's dual investment strategy of "bringing in" and "going out" [10][11]. - It notes that China's direct investment outflow has surpassed foreign direct investment inflow since 2015, with a diversification of trade partners and a decrease in trade concentration among the top three partners [11]. - The article suggests that the RMB could be considered a quasi-safe-haven currency, which would enhance its role in global investment portfolios and mitigate capital outflow pressures [12].