研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 沪铜产业日报 2025/12/23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) 93,930.00 | | -390.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 11,967.50 | +42.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -70.00 | -20.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 241,093.00 | -5697.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) -33,302.00 | -996.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | | 157,750.00 | -2650.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) 95,805.00 | +6416.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | | 51,750.00 | -4700.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) 49,543. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a state of shock consolidation [4] - The view on lithium carbonate is that it will stabilize with range - bound fluctuations, and one should pay attention to marginal supply - demand changes and be vigilant against emotional fluctuations [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui regional short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and restart times are expected to affect a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills' shutdowns will affect a daily output of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a 40.3% decline from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - Finished products continued to decline in shock, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to move down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, providing weak support for prices [4] - The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 111,400 yuan/ton, with a slight decline in trading volume and positions, and the net short position of the main contract continued. The average price of electric carbon was 97,650 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend, and the basis of the main contract was - 13,750 yuan/ton. Market activity was extremely low [3] - Fundamentally, the year - on - year increase in raw material prices was over 7%, strengthening cost support. As of December 18, the total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 51.4%, with a 0.21% increase from the previous period, and the weekly output was 22,045 tons, also with a 0.21% increase [4] - There were significant differences in production processes. The lithium - spodumene process became the core increment in production, and with the gradual commissioning of new projects, the industry's production capacity was steadily released [4] - On the demand side, the downstream lithium - battery industry chain showed a differentiated trend. As of December 19, the production of ternary and lithium - iron batteries decreased by 2.6% and 2.2% respectively from the previous period, and the inventory continued to decline. The production of power batteries decreased by 1.48% from the previous period but maintained a 30.34% year - on - year high growth [4] - In the terminal market, as of December 14, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 57.30% from the previous period but decreased by 7.62% year - on - year, showing short - term fluctuations [4] - In terms of inventory, as of December 18, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased slightly by 0.9% to 110,400 tons, continuing the de - stocking state, and the de - stocking slope slowed down [4] - The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% to 26.2 days. Other links had periodic inventory accumulation, and the social inventory showed an inventory accumulation state, with a 4.98% year - on - year increase and a 54.71% decrease from the previous period. The overall industry inventory remained tight [4] - Macro - policies such as the Fed's interest - rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, and the series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference provided support for the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate [5] - Battery manufacturers' collective price increases drove market sentiment to warm up, but one should pay attention to events such as overseas resource/restart news and domestic lithium - mine production - capacity dynamics [5] - The later focus includes the implementation of macro - policies, the progress of production - capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand, the de - stocking slope of sample inventory, and funds and emotions [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of prioritizing people's livelihoods and continuously improving their well-being as a fundamental goal of economic work [1][2][3] - The central economic work meeting highlights the need to focus on employment stability, particularly for key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers, while encouraging flexible employment [3][4] - There is a commitment to enhancing education, healthcare, and food safety, with specific actions like increasing high school enrollment and optimizing drug procurement processes [3][4] Group 2 - The concept of "people-centered development" is reiterated, with a focus on addressing the urgent needs and expectations of the populace [2][4] - The government aims to implement practical measures that directly benefit the people, ensuring that improvements in living standards are tangible and visible [4] - The overarching goal is to achieve common prosperity for all citizens, fostering a sense of shared progress and unity among the population [1][4]

北京财经大V联盟于2025年1月在新浪总部大厦正式成立，由市委网信办指导，旨在汇聚行业部门、平 台、大V三方合力，通过建立邀约创作、协同联动等工作机制，组织财经网络大V参与经济、金融等专 业部门活动，促进财经内容创作更加精品多元，传播更为专业、可靠、有价值的财经资讯，推动财经领 域网络传播秩序更加清朗有序。同时，通过财经大V的生动解读，让一系列政策更加可感可知，唱响经 济光明论，助力首都经济社会高质量发展。 来源：北京市网信办 12月18日下午，为深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会、中央经济工作会议精神及相关经济工作部署，凝 聚财经领域发展共识，由北京市委网信办指导，新浪财经、微博联合新浪党委党建大讲堂、北京财经大 V联盟共同举办的"凝心聚力·学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神座谈会"在北京新浪总部大厦举行。 座谈会上，清华大学中国发展规划研究院常务副院长董煜深度解读中央经济工作会议核心要义，围 绕"十五五"规划编制与2026年经济工作重点部署展开分享。他指出，"十四五"时期我国经济运行稳中有 进、长期向好的基本面没有改变，高质量发展成效扎实，为"十五五"时期发展奠定坚实基础；"十五 五"时期是全面建设社会主义现代化国 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 铁矿石市场周报 现货报价坚挺 铁矿期价止跌反弹 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 业务咨询 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至12月19日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为780（+19.5）元/吨，青岛港麦克粉845（+14）元/干吨。 2. 发运：全球铁矿石发运总量环比+224万吨。2025年12月8日-12月14日Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量3592.5万吨，环比增加224.0 万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2965.5万吨，环比增加310.2万吨。 3. 到港：本期47港到港量+358.9万吨。2025年12月08日-12月14日中国47港到港总量2928.1万吨，环比增加358.9万吨；中国45港 到港总量2723.4万吨，环比增加242.9万吨；北方六港到港总量1358.5万吨，环比增加79.8万吨。 4. 需求：铁水产量-2.65万吨。日均铁水产量 226.55万吨，环比上周减少2.65万吨，同比去年减少2.86万吨。 5. 库存：港口库存+114.06 ...

中银证券指出，从"十五五"规划建议到中央经济工作会议对地产的表态都是要稳住房地产市场，推进制 度完善。尽管当前防范地产及相关风险仍是首位，但房价的惯性下滑及不断蔓延的看跌预期可能会倒逼 政策尽快出台。预计明年一季度将会有适当的政策调整。地产从标的来看，一方面，流动性安全、重仓 高能级城市、产品力突出的房企或更具备α属性；另一方面，在新消费时代下，提前布局新业态、新模 式、新场景的商业地产公司，有望率先走出重围。 地产板块19日盘中发力走高，截至发稿，德必集团20%涨停，三湘印象、华联控股、中天服务等均涨 停，深深房A涨超5%。 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's fiscal revenue and expenditure, highlighting a decline in revenue growth due to high base effects from the previous year and a slowdown in public budget expenditure, particularly in infrastructure-related spending. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Trends - In November, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year growth of 0.0%, down from 3.2% in the previous year, primarily due to high base effects from the same period last year [1][4] - The cumulative public budget revenue for the first 11 months of the year increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking one of the lowest growth rates in the past decade, only better than 2020 and 2022 [1][4] - Major tax categories showed varied performance, with corporate income tax experiencing a significant decline, while personal income tax and domestic value-added tax remained strong, with personal income tax growing by 11.5% year-to-date [5][6] Group 2: Public Budget Expenditure - Public budget expenditure recorded a year-on-year decline of -9.8% in October and -3.7% in November, with cumulative expenditure progress for the first 11 months at 84%, slower than previous years [2][8] - Expenditure related to infrastructure, particularly in rural and community sectors, saw significant declines, while technology spending grew by 27.4% year-on-year in November [2][9] - The public budget revenue-expenditure gap reached 4.8 trillion yuan, with a deficit progress of 62%, influenced by the slowdown in infrastructure spending [12] Group 3: Broader Fiscal Context - Government fund budget revenue fell by 15.8% year-on-year, indicating a continued weak performance in the income side, aligning with the downturn in real estate data [15][16] - The article emphasizes the importance of observing fiscal trends in early 2026, as the first quarter will be critical for assessing the impact of policy financial tools and investment stabilization efforts [3][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is not overly pessimistic. Fed's policy and domestic economic work conference set a positive tone. Different metals have different price trends based on supply - demand and other factors. For short - term trading, it is recommended to be cautious and mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [4][7] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**: US November non - farm data was better than expected, unemployment data was worse than expected, and the US dollar index declined. LME copper 3M contract closed down 0.57% to $11,619/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,830 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 725 to 166,600 tons, and the domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.4 to 46,000 tons [3] - **策略观点**: Fed's bond - buying makes liquidity expectations marginally loose, and the domestic central economic work conference has a positive policy tone. The copper ore supply is tight, the refined copper supply is expected to increase, but the downstream operating rate is stable. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the SHFE copper main contract operating range of 91,200 - 93,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M at $11,500 - 11,800/ton [4] Aluminum - **行情资讯**: South32's Mozal aluminum plant will enter maintenance in March 2026. LME aluminum closed up 0.26% to $2,882/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,825 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 16,000 to 625,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,000 to 77,000 tons. Global aluminum inventories are at a relatively low level [6] - **策略观点**: Global aluminum inventories are decreasing, with support from overseas supply disruptions and loose macro - policies. Although there are some negative factors, if inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices may rise after adjustment. The SHFE aluminum main contract operating range is 21,700 - 22,100 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is at $2,850 - 2,910/ton [7] Lead - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, the SHFE lead index closed down 1.07% to 16,840 yuan/ton, and the total long - short position was 82,500 lots. LME lead 3S fell by $27 to $1,944/ton, and the total position was 180,500 lots. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly by 80 tons to 23,700 tons [9] - **策略观点**: Lead ore inventory is basically stable, the operating rate of primary lead is declining, and that of secondary lead is rising. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate is rising. The domestic lead ingot social inventory is at a relatively low level, but the SHFE lead monthly spread remains low. It is expected that lead prices will be weak in a wide range in the short term [10] Zinc - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 1.74% to 23,045 yuan/ton, and the total long - short position was 207,500 lots. LME zinc 3S fell by $91 to $3,063/ton, and the total position was 236,000 lots. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 2,500 tons to 125,700 tons [11] - **策略观点**: The visible inventory of zinc ore is decreasing, and the TC of zinc concentrate is declining. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots is decreasing, and the LME zinc inventory is slowly increasing. After the non - ferrous metals sentiment fades, SHFE zinc may give back some of its gains. The Fed's policy stimulus is limited before March 18 next year [12] Tin - **行情资讯**: On December 16, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 320,620 yuan/ton, down 2.07%. The operating rate of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined in the off - season, and the high tin price suppresses downstream purchasing willingness. The national main social inventory of tin ingots increased by 311 tons to 8,245 tons last week [13] - **策略观点**: Although the current tin market demand is weak and supply is expected to improve, due to low downstream inventory, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract operating range is 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is at $39,000 - 43,000/ton [14] Nickel - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 112,290 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot premium of various brands was stable, and the price of nickel ore was stable, while the price of nickel iron weakened [16] - **策略观点**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large. The price of refined nickel has dropped significantly, and the premium of refined nickel has reached the support level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M is at $13,000 - 15,500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 97,569 yuan, up 1.35%. The LC2605 contract closed at 100,600 yuan, down 0.46% [20] - **策略观点**: The lithium carbonate market opened high and closed low. There are differences in the market regarding supply release and demand realization. The probability of a weak adjustment in the lithium price range is relatively high. The reference operating range of the LC2605 contract is 97,800 - 103,200 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **行情资讯**: On December 16, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.15% to 2,606 yuan/ton, and the total long - short position decreased by 6,000 to 606,000 lots. The Shandong spot price dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 2,670 yuan/ton, with a premium of 129 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,400 tons to 246,200 tons [23] - **策略观点**: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is复产. The alumina smelting capacity is in excess, and the inventory is increasing. However, the current price is close to most manufacturers' cost lines, and the probability of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,320 yuan/ton, down 1.28%. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi decreased. The raw material prices were stable, and the futures inventory decreased by 1,018 tons. The social inventory increased to 1.0636 million tons, a decrease of 1.55% [26] - **策略观点**: The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season, and the trading atmosphere is light. The raw material price has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The market is in a tight balance, and prices fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: The main AD2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy closed down 0.33% to 20,950 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions decreased to 29,000 lots, and the trading volume was 5,700 lots. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly to 48,800 tons [29] - **策略观点**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and there are continuous supply - side disruptions, providing support for prices. However, demand is unstable, and there is交割 pressure. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [30]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the resilience and vitality of China's economy, projecting a stable growth rate of around 5% for 2025, with a total economic output expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan [2][3]. Economic Performance - The overall economic operation is stable, with major indicators meeting expectations, and employment remains generally stable [2]. - Foreign trade is growing rapidly, with significant diversification in exports [2]. - The construction of a modern industrial system is progressing, with advancements in sectors like artificial intelligence and biomedicine [2]. - Reforms and opening-up measures are making headway, with a focus on building a unified national market [2][3]. Risk Management - Positive progress has been made in addressing risks in key areas, including the orderly replacement of local government hidden debts and the completion of housing security tasks [2][3]. Macroeconomic Policies - The government will continue to implement proactive fiscal and monetary policies, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while enhancing the precision and effectiveness of fiscal spending [4][5][6][7]. - Monetary policy will focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, utilizing various tools to maintain liquidity and support key sectors [7]. Domestic Demand - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority, with domestic consumption contributing 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters [8]. - Policies will be implemented to boost consumption and investment, focusing on new consumption patterns and enhancing residents' income [8][9]. Regional Development - The construction of international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is a significant strategic deployment to enhance global competitiveness [11][12]. - The government will promote coordinated regional development, focusing on the integration of urban and rural areas and supporting economic provinces in their development roles [18][19]. Green Transition - The government aims to advance a comprehensive green transition, with specific measures to achieve carbon peak and neutrality goals, including the development of a new energy system and green low-carbon industries [21][22]. Employment Stability - Employment remains a priority, with over 12 million new urban jobs created this year, and policies will be strengthened to support key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers [23][24]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market is stabilizing, with a focus on balancing supply and demand, encouraging the transformation of real estate companies, and developing a new model for high-quality real estate development [26][27][28].

二是现代化产业体系建设持续推进。新质生产力稳步发展，科技创新成果丰硕，人工智能、生物医药、 机器人等研发应用走在全球前列。 在"十四五"即将收官、"十五五"新程待启的关键时点，2025年12月10日至11日召开的中央经济工作会议 备受瞩目。 当前经济形势怎么看？"十五五"新开局重点任务如何推进？聚焦舆论关注的热点问题，中央财办有关负 责同志会后第一时间接受中央主要媒体采访，深入解读中央经济工作会议精神。 问：2025年我国交出怎样的经济"成绩单"？明年经济形势如何？ 答：中央经济工作会议对今年经济工作进行全面总结，指出2025年是很不平凡的一年，我国经济顶压前 行、向新向优发展，展现强大韧性和活力。 一是运行总体平稳、稳中有进。主要经济指标符合预期，预计全年经济增长5%左右、继续位居世界主 要经济体前列，经济总量有望达到140万亿元左右。就业总体稳定，外贸较快增长、出口多元化成效明 显。 三是改革开放迈出新步伐。全国统一大市场建设向纵深推进，综合整治"内卷式"竞争成效显现，资本市 场较为活跃，自主开放有序推进。 四是重点领域风险化解取得积极进展。地方政府隐性债务有序置换，"保交房"任务全面完成，中小金融 机构 ...