【宏观快评】 来年工作有何新部署？——政策周观察第 61 期 证 券 研 究 报 告 ❖ 时值年末，各方就来年各方面工作做出部署，要点如下： 1、重要事件：中纪委全会及两会时间确定。12 月 25 日，中共中央政治局召 开会议，会议同意明年 1 月 12 日至 14 日召开二十届中央纪律检查委员会第五 次全体会议。12 月 27 日，十四届全国人大常委会第十九次会议表决通过了关 于召开十四届全国人大四次会议的决定。根据决定，十四届全国人大四次会议 于 2026 年 3 月 5 日在北京召开。 2、财政：1）政策基调：12 月 27 日，全国财政工作会议召开，提出：一是扩 大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度（去年为"提高财政赤字率，加大支出 强度、加快支出进度"）。二是优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益（去 年为"安排更大规模政府债券"）……五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 2）债务分配：12 月 24 日，全国人民代表大会常务委员会预算工作委员会关 于 2025 年财政预算事项备案审查工作情况的报告提出，"提出新增专项债额度 进一步向项目准备充分、投资效率较高、资金使用效益好的地区倾斜，用于 支持地方政 ...

1月,《关于推动中长期资金入市工作 的实施方案》出台,推动建立健全对各 类中长期资金的长周期考核机制。方案 提出:提升商业保险资金A股投资比例 与稳定性;优化全国社会保障基金、基 本养老保险基金投资管理机制;提高权 益类基金的规模和占比等。 02 增强资本市场含"科" 量 本文来源：新华财经 作者：刘玉龙、丁晶 2025年政府工作报告提出:"因地制宜 发展新质生产力,加快建设现代化产业 体系""推动科技创新和产业创新融合 发展"。聚焦服务新质生产力发展,中国 证监会深化科创板、创业板、北交所改 革,提升制度的包容性和适应性,加快 构建更有利于支持全面创新的资本市场 生态,不断提升资本市场含"科"量。 ０３ "中国版平准基金" 稳市场稳预期 4月8日,中央汇金公司有关负责人表示, 中央汇金公司一直是维护资本市场稳定 的重要战略力量,是资本市场上的"国 家队",发挥着类"平准基金"作用。 当日,中国人民银行明确表示,坚定支 持中央汇金公司加大力度增持股票市场 指数基金,并在必要时向中央汇金公司 提供充足的再贷款支持,坚决维护资本 市场平稳运行。 04 推进公募基金高质量发展 5月7日,中国证监会印发《推动公募基 ...

12月26日，券商板块走势活跃，400亿顶流券商ETF（512000）场内价格一度上探1.89%，收涨0.86%，日线3连阳，向上收复 半年线，全天成交额18.3亿元，环比放量超8亿。 今年以来，券商板块整体表现不佳，作为"牛市旗手"，券商ETF（512000）跟踪的中证全指证券公司指数年内仅微涨3.96%， 表现明显落后于大盘，与高增业绩显著背离，滞涨矛盾突出。同期板块市净率估值PB（LF）为1.5倍，仅位于近10年41.57%分 位点的中低水平。分析认为，主因或系前两年的悲观情绪蔓延以及板块缺少独立催化。 | 序号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [区间首日] 本年初 [区间尾日] 2025-12-26 | | | | | | [单位] % | | | 399975.SZ | | 证券公司 | | 3.9641 | | 2 | 000001.SH | 上证指数 | | 18.2565 | | 3 399001.SZ | | 深证成指 | | 30.6232 | | 4 399006.SZ | | 创业板指 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term stock index may fluctuate, but the trend remains unchanged, and it is expected to attack the previous high. The shock digestion since November has entered the end, and from December to January of the next year, it is likely to enter the window period of cross - year layout. The market is expected to show a shock climb again. The mid - term view of being bullish on the stock index remains unchanged. It is recommended to layout and go long on the spring market of the stock index. In terms of operation, hold mid - term long positions and continue to add positions opportunistically; hold call options. [13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - Last week, the broader market continued to rebound and continuously stood above the 60 - day moving average. The four major indexes all rose, with the small - and medium - cap indexes leading the gains. Most of the style indexes rose, with the growth and cyclical style indexes leading the gains, and only the consumer style index falling. Most of the Shenwan industries rose, with the non - ferrous metals, military, electrical equipment, and electronics sectors leading the gains, while the tourism, banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors led the losses. [8][18][21] - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in November, with the new export orders rebounding by a relatively large 1.7%, which is related to the mitigation of Sino - US tariffs; the ex - factory price and the purchase price of raw materials rebounded again after two months of decline. [8][36] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling continuously for 30 months to 5.89% as of November 2025, and continues to decline. [8][47] - The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and boost the capital market; the State Council issued the new Nine - Article Guidelines to strongly support investor returns; the central bank created two new types of monetary policy tools; the implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market annually. [8][55] - The A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and rebound in the third quarter. The performance of the four major indexes rebounded again in the third quarter of 2025. [8][73][77] - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 16.5341, with an upper - limit value of 15.66, and it is at the 87.09th percentile since 2010, at a relatively high level since 2010. However, as performance rises, the valuation will decline. The ChiNext valuation is at a relatively low level. [10][90][92] - In terms of margin trading, the net inflow in 2024 was 274.8 billion yuan; as of December 25, 2025, the net inflow in 2025 was 674.3 billion yuan, and the net inflow in the first five trading days was 45.9 billion yuan. The scale of private securities investment funds increased by 1.7946 trillion yuan this year, and the total scale is currently 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly registered scale this year is 386 billion yuan. The market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 552.4 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2025, with a month - on - month increase of 18.00%. As of September 30, 2025, the newly established share of stock - type funds was 323.3 billion, and that of hybrid funds was 103.6 billion. The net inflow of index funds in 2025 was 104.9 billion yuan, while the net outflow of active equity funds was 444.9 billion yuan. From April 7 to December 19, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 176.3 billion yuan, and last week it increased by 47.3 billion yuan. As of December 19, the net inflow of ETF funds this year was 79.3 billion yuan. [11][97][101] Strategy Views and Outlook - The broader market fluctuated and rose for eight consecutive days last Friday, with a dive during the session and the trading volume increased to more than 2 trillion yuan, remaining above the 60 - day moving average. The market sentiment declined, and there may be short - term fluctuations, but the trend remains unchanged, and it is expected to attack the previous high. It is recommended to layout and go long on the spring market of the stock index. In terms of operation, hold mid - term long positions and continue to add positions opportunistically; hold call options. [13] 2. Index Industry Trend Review - Last week, the broader market continued to rebound and continuously stood above the 60 - day moving average. The four major indexes all rose, with the small - and medium - cap indexes leading the gains. Most of the style indexes rose, with the growth and cyclical style indexes leading the gains, and only the consumer style index falling. Most of the Shenwan industries rose, with the non - ferrous metals, military, electrical equipment, and electronics sectors leading the gains, while the tourism, banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors led the losses. [8][18][21] 3. Main Contract and Basis Trend - The four major indexes continued to rebound. In terms of the basis, it started from the quarterly main contract and is at a relatively high level. In terms of the arbitrage of each main contract, IC/IF and IC/IH fluctuated and stabilized, IH/IF stabilized; IM/IF and IM/IH fluctuated weakly; IM/IC fluctuated and declined. [25][30] 4. Policy and Economy Economy - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in November, with the new export orders rebounding by a relatively large 1.7%, which is related to the mitigation of Sino - US tariffs; the ex - factory price and the purchase price of raw materials rebounded again after two months of decline. [36] - Generally, PPI leads the inventory cycle. PPI bottomed out and rebounded in June 2023, weakened after two months, and the decline has been narrowing continuously since March 2024. The decline of PPI has been narrowing again since November 2025. In October, the operating revenue of industrial enterprises fell to 1.8%, the inventory continued to rise to 3.7%, demand declined, and there was passive inventory replenishment. [39] - China's social financing scale in November was 2488.5 billion yuan, an increase of 152.8 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. Among them, new RMB loans were 405.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 117 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly due to a decrease of 206.3 billion yuan in household loans. Government bonds were 1204.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 106 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. [42] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling continuously for 30 months to 5.89% as of November 2025, and continues to decline. [47] Policy - New Nine - Article Guidelines: It aims to improve the overall quality of listed companies from the source and promote listed companies to pay more attention to rewarding shareholders. [51] - Implementation Plan for Promoting the Entry of Medium - and Long - Term Funds into the Market: It includes measures such as increasing the actual investment ratio, extending the assessment period, and forming a joint force to implement incremental policies, which is expected to bring a large amount of long - term funds into the A - share market. [54] - The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and boost the capital market, including measures to boost the capital market, promote the entry of medium - and long - term funds, support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, and promote the stable development of the real estate market. [55] - The central bank created new monetary policy tools, including a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies and a stock repurchase and increase re - loan, and carried out MLF operations and reverse repurchase operations, and adjusted relevant interest rates. [58] - A large - scale debt - resolution measure was announced, which will directly increase 10 trillion yuan of local debt - resolution funds and significantly reduce the local debt - resolution pressure. [59] - Accelerate the construction of first - class investment banks and investment institutions to better promote the high - quality development of the capital market, including implementing differentiated supervision for different types of securities companies. [60] - The 14th Five - Year Plan: It is a crucial five - year period with multiple strategic goals to be achieved. It involves aspects such as the international trade pattern, Sino - US relations, supply - chain reconstruction, and domestic economic development. [63] - The US mid - term elections: The policy environment in the next year will be more favorable for risk assets. The mid - term election schedule and expected fiscal support are also mentioned. [64][66] 5. Revenue and Net Profit of Each Index - The A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and rebound in the third quarter. The performance of the four major indexes rebounded again in the third quarter of 2025. [73][77] 6. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 16.5341, with an upper - limit value of 15.66, and it is at the 87.09th percentile since 2010, at a relatively high level since 2010. However, as performance rises, the valuation will decline. The ChiNext valuation is at a relatively low level. [10][90][92] 7. Federal Reserve Interest Rate - Not provided in the given content 8. Capital Flow - In terms of margin trading, the net inflow in 2024 was 274.8 billion yuan; as of December 25, 2025, the net inflow in 2025 was 674.3 billion yuan, and the net inflow in the first five trading days was 45.9 billion yuan. [97] - The scale of private securities investment funds increased by 1.7946 trillion yuan this year, and the total scale is currently 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly registered scale this year is 386 billion yuan. [101] - The market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 552.4 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2025, with a month - on - month increase of 18.00%, and the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 1.193 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with an increase of 758.4 billion yuan after deducting the scale growth. [103][104] - The market value of the national team increased by 4 billion in the third quarter, with little change, while the CSI 300 index rose by 17.9%. The mid - and long - term A - share market value increased by nearly 90 billion in the third quarter, and the market value of A - shares held by mid - and long - term A - share investment entities increased by 1.8145 trillion in the first three quarters of 2025. [106][108] - From April 7 to December 19, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 204 billion yuan; last week, the ETF scale continued to increase by 27.7 billion yuan. As of December 26, the net inflow of ETF funds this year was 107 billion yuan. [111] - As of September 30, 2025, the newly established share of stock - type funds was 323.3 billion, and that of hybrid funds was 103.6 billion. [117] - In October 2025, the deposits of non - bank financial institutions increased by 1.8574 trillion yuan again, and the total deposits of non - bank financial institutions increased by 6.6688 trillion yuan this year. Overall, funds are flowing from the banking system to non - bank channels such as the capital market and wealth management products. [121] - As of last weekend, the IPO financing in 2023 was 356.5 billion yuan; in 2024, it was 67.3 billion yuan; in 2025, it was 125.3 billion yuan. [129] - Last week, the net reduction of major shareholders in the secondary market was 14.2 billion yuan, at a relatively high level. [134] - The unlocking volume in the first half of 2026 is relatively small. [138] 9. Technical Analysis - The daily - line trend charts of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are provided, showing the price trends of these indexes from December 26, 2024, to December 23, 2025. [142][144][146][148]

Group 1 - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced a series of fee reduction measures for 2026, with a total expected reduction exceeding 1.9 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange anticipates a fee reduction of approximately 1.113 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange expects over 800 million yuan in reductions [1] - The fee reductions will cover various financial instruments including stocks, funds, and bonds, benefiting retail investors [1] Group 2 - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has officially launched, with three regional funds established to promote venture capital investment [2] - These funds aim to guide financial capital towards early-stage, small, long-term investments in hard technology [2] Group 3 - The ETF market in China has reached a total scale of 6.03 trillion yuan, marking a significant milestone [5] - The ETF market has seen an increase of approximately 2.3 trillion yuan this year, the first time annual growth has surpassed 2 trillion yuan since the inception of ETFs in 2004 [5] Group 4 - The public fund industry in China has reached a total scale of 36.96 trillion yuan, with equity products showing a significant increase [6] - The growth in public funds is attributed to ongoing optimization of the industry ecosystem and increased demand for wealth management [6] - Equity products, including stock and mixed funds, have seen a combined scale increase of 22.21 billion yuan compared to the end of last year [6] Group 5 - The People's Bank of China released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)," indicating a generally stable financial system with controllable risks [7] - The report emphasizes the need for continued reform in interest rate markets and the promotion of long-term investment policies [7] Group 6 - A new chairman has been appointed at Xinda Australia Fund, with the previous vice president of business review taking over the role [8] - Xinda Australia Fund has surpassed 110 billion yuan in managed public fund assets [8] Group 7 - The People's Bank of China announced the nationwide promotion of the integrated currency pool business for multinational corporations [9] Group 8 - A significant loss was reported by Shengyuan Environmental Protection due to a private equity fund investment, with a net value decline of 81.54% [14] - The company has initiated a redemption process and reported the case to law enforcement [14]

Group 1 - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced a series of fee reduction measures for 2026, with a total expected reduction of over 19 billion yuan, benefiting investors across various financial products [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will waive listing fees for companies, reduce transaction unit usage fees, and exempt certain bond transaction fees, while also reducing fees for its subsidiaries [1] - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has officially launched, with three regional funds established to promote venture capital investment in technology and long-term projects [1] Group 2 - The National Investment UBS Silver Futures Fund announced a limit on regular investment amounts for its A-class fund shares, effective December 29, 2025, due to high premium rates [2] - The China Securities REITs Total Return Index increased by 1.56% from December 22 to 26, with over 80% of products rising, although some experienced significant declines due to accounting treatment concerns [2] - The first water power REIT in Xinjiang successfully concluded its issuance, attracting over 160 billion yuan in subscription funds [3] Group 3 - The total scale of the ETF market reached 6.03 trillion yuan as of December 26, marking a significant growth of nearly 2.3 trillion yuan in 2023, the first time the annual increase surpassed 2 trillion yuan since the inception of ETFs in China [5] - The public fund industry in China reached a record high of 36.96 trillion yuan by the end of October 2023, driven by continuous optimization of the industry ecosystem and increased demand for wealth management [6] - The report from the People's Bank of China indicated that the financial system remains stable, with overall financial risks under control, and highlighted the need for continued reforms and improvements in the financial sector [7] Group 4 - Recent leadership changes occurred in several fund companies, including the appointment of new executives at Xinda Australia Fund and Nord Fund, indicating ongoing shifts in management within the industry [9][10] - The establishment of specialized subsidiaries by fund companies aims to enhance their core public fund business while promoting differentiated development [10] - The investment outlook for 2026 remains positive, with expectations for growth in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in sectors like AI, consumption, and manufacturing [11]

Group 1 - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced a series of fee reduction measures for 2026, with a total expected reduction of over 19 billion yuan, benefiting investors across various financial products [2] - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has officially launched, with regional funds established in key areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3][4] - The public fund industry in China reached a total scale of 36.96 trillion yuan by the end of October 2025, marking a continuous increase and reflecting a shift towards high-quality development [10] Group 2 - The ETF market in China has surpassed 6.03 trillion yuan as of December 26, 2025, with a significant growth of nearly 2.3 trillion yuan in 2025 alone, indicating strong investor interest and market expansion [8][9] - The central bank's financial stability report indicates that the financial system in China is generally stable, with a focus on deepening interest rate marketization and improving the investment environment for long-term capital [11] - The establishment of specialized subsidiaries by major fund companies, such as E Fund and GF Fund, aims to enhance their competitive edge and promote diversified development in wealth management [16][17]

转自：推广 "十五五"开局之年已然临近。 规划建议首度将"金融强国"写入，既标志着我国金融发展逻辑发生重大转变——从基础制度搭建转入以"强国"为导向的质量提升与全球竞争力培育阶段， 也更对金融业发展提出新的更高要求。 正是在这样的历史节点，12月26日，以"财富管理助力中国式现代化青岛实践"为主题的2025青岛财富论坛在青岛金家岭金融区如约而至。 本次论坛共设置一个主论坛和三个分论坛，紧扣建设财富管理核心主线金融强国目标，围绕金融"五篇大文章"，现场数百位国内经济金融领域相关领导、 业内知名专家学者齐聚，共探财富管理与国家战略同频共振的实践路径。 发出"青岛声音" 洞察"十五五"前沿趋势 过去一年，全球经济格局波谲云诡，国内新旧动能转换任重道远稳步演进，传统模式面临艰难险阻，在多重风险交织叠加下，金融业站在了转型的十字路 口。 已连续举办11届的青岛财富论坛，作为青岛推进财富管理中心建设的重要平台和品牌活动，早已成为洞察金融业发展趋势的前沿平台窗口。 本届论坛上，各界嘉宾在延续往年以前瞻视角、权威声音纵论行业发展同时，还进一步强调与国家"十五五"规划建议的融合，带来精彩的观点输出，以更 加积极的姿态深入探讨财 ...

【导读】央行发布《中国金融稳定报告（ 2025 ）》 中国基金报记者 张玲 《报告》通过多篇专栏，对利率市场化改革、上市公司市值管理、中长期资金入市、房地产 市场平稳健康发展等进行述评，提出持续深化利率市场化改革，推动利率 " 形得成 "" 调得 了 " ；着力健全有利于 " 长钱长投 " 的制度政策环境，显著提高各类中长期资金实际投资 A 股的规模和比例；加强房地产金融宏观审慎管理，稳妥有序完善房地产信贷基础性制度等。 展望后续，《报告》指出，将坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，加 大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，持续防范化解重点领域风险，实现 " 十五五 " 良好开局。 持续深化利率市场化改革，推动利率 " 形得成 "" 调得了 " 《报告》指出，中国人民银行按照 " 放得开、形得成、调得了 " 的总体思路，稳步推进利率 市场化改革。 " 放得开 " 目标已基本实现。目前，对利率的行政性管制已经放开，基本建立了市场化的利 率形成和传导机制，以及较为完整的市场化利率体系。 " 形得成 " 和 " 调得了 " 仍任重道远。贷款市场报价利率（ LPR ）改革以来，由于银行定 价能力不足、 " 内卷式 ...

《报告》共设有十三个专栏和四个专题，谈及了金融支持融资平台债务风险化解、防范化解保险业风 险、公募基金流动性压力测试、拓展中央银行宏观审慎与金融稳定职能等金融领域的热点问题。 备受关注的是，《报告》在"推动中长期资金入市"的专栏中表示，下一步，中国证监会、财政部、人力 资源社会保障部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局等相关部门将立足大局，加强协作，形成合力，在中央 金融办统筹协调下，进一步提升工作的前瞻性、主动性和针对性，着力健全有利于"长线长投"的制度政 策环境，显著提高各类中长期资金实际投资A股的规模和比例，努力实现中长期资金保值增值、资本市 场平稳健康运行与实体经济高质量发展的良性循环。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 12月26日，中国人民银行（下称"央行"）发布《中国金融稳定报告（2025）》（下称《报告》），对中 国金融体系的稳健性状况进行全面评估。《报告》指出，当前，我国金融业运行总体稳健，金融风险整 体收敛、总体可控，金融机构经营指标和监管指标处于合理区间。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，《报告》还在"做好科技金融大文章 精准支持科技创新重点领域""金融支 持融资平台债务风险化解取得 ...