Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: Para-xylene, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber (short-term), LLDPE, caustic soda, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil [2][8][9][10][18][36][45][81] - **Neutral Outlook**: Rubber, asphalt, PP, pulp, glass, methanol, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC [2][12][18][19][27][40][49][54][58][64][66][69][74][78] - **Negative Outlook**: Urea, container shipping index (European line) [2][63][83] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical futures, presenting trends, strengths, and investment suggestions for each commodity. Market conditions are influenced by factors such as supply-demand dynamics, cost changes, and macroeconomic policies [2][8][9][10]. - Short-term trends are affected by macro sentiment, policy expectations, and seasonal factors, while long-term trends depend on fundamental supply and demand [18][58][64]. Summary by Commodity Para-xylene, PTA, MEG - **Para-xylene**: Trend is strong, with positive spreads. Suggested to buy on dips and focus on 11-1 positive spread positions. PX-MX spread expansion may boost supply, and polyester demand recovery supports prices [8]. - **PTA**: Unilateral price is strong. Suggested to buy on dips, focus on basis and monthly spread positive spreads, and go long PTA and short PX (11 contract). Supply decreased this week, and demand is seasonally improving [9]. - **MEG**: Short-term trend is strong, but there is pressure above 4600. Suggested to focus on 1-5 reverse spread. Domestic device maintenance is over, and imports are low, but there is supply pressure in October [10]. Rubber - **Trend**: Oscillating. July tire exports reached a new high, but August exports to the EU may decline [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Trend**: Short-term is strong, medium-term is range-bound. Short-term macro sentiment is positive, and long-term "anti-involution" policies support valuations [16][18]. Asphalt - **Trend**: Oil prices are slightly strong, and cracking spreads are falling. September domestic asphalt production is expected to increase, but recent shipments and capacity utilization have decreased [19][33]. LLDPE - **Trend**: Short-term is strongly oscillating. Cost rebounds, demand improves, and inventory is low. September Zhenhai Refining and Chemical maintenance may relieve supply pressure [35][36]. PP - **Trend**: Short-term rebound, medium-term oscillating. Short-term demand improves, and cost rebounds, but long-term supply pressure increases [39][40]. Caustic Soda - **Trend**: Bullish. Demand is expanding, especially from alumina. Supply may be limited by the weakness of chlorine-consuming downstream industries [45]. Pulp - **Trend**: Oscillating. Supply is abundant, cost support is weak, and demand is sluggish [49][50][52]. Glass - **Trend**: Original sheet prices are stable. Market trading is average, and downstream replenishment is mainly based on rigid demand [54]. Methanol - **Trend**: Short-term is oscillating with support, medium-term is range-bound. Macro sentiment is positive, but port inventory is high [56][58]. Urea - **Trend**: Weak. Inventory is increasing, and short-term prices are falling. Medium-term prices may fluctuate due to macro sentiment and policy expectations [62][63][64]. Styrene - **Trend**: Short-term is strong, medium-term is bearish. Downstream inventory is at a medium-high level, and the short-term market is oscillating [65][66]. Soda Ash - **Trend**: Spot market is stable. Supply is decreasing, and demand is average. The market is expected to be stable and oscillating in the short term [69]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Import cost provides support, but supply-demand improvement is limited [71]. - **Propylene**: Supply-demand is in tight balance, and prices are consolidating strongly [71]. PVC - **Trend**: Short-term is oscillating, long-term is under pressure. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [78]. Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Uptrend is obvious, and short-term strength will continue [81]. - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Relatively weaker than high-sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high and low sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [81]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Trend**: Weakly oscillating. Freight rates are declining, and market sentiment is cautious [83].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is bullish, while the medium - term outlook remains range - bound. In the short term, the overall macro sentiment is warm, with the pre - parade equity market excitement driving commodities higher. The rubber sector follows the commodity index. Also, the "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies support the overall valuation of commodities. In the medium term, the futures price increase is mainly speculative, and after the commodity market returns to fundamental trading, the futures price is expected to correct to the fundamental valuation range [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber (BR) futures, the closing price of the main contract dropped from 11,775 yuan/ton to 11,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased from 106,881 lots to 89,334 lots, and the open interest decreased from 38,436 lots to 35,755 lots. The trading value decreased from 630,298 ten - thousand yuan to 522,802 ten - thousand yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong BR - futures main contract increased from - 25 to 90, and the monthly spread (BR09 - BR10) increased from - 20 to 20. The prices of North China, East China, and South China private BR decreased by 50 yuan/ton each [1] - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong BR (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,750 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 50 yuan/ton each. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate increased from 75.4881% to 75.8368%, an increase of 0.35%. The theoretical full cost and profit of butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 12,182 yuan/ton and - 282 yuan/ton respectively [1] b) Industry News - As of August 20, 2025 (Week 34), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.06 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 million tons or 0.56%. Most previously shut - down butadiene rubber plants restarted, increasing domestic production. The spot market price rose due to capital speculation and natural rubber market trends, but downstream procurement led to slow terminal sales. Sample production enterprise inventory decreased slightly, while sample trading enterprise inventory increased [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the increase in butadiene arrivals at ports eases the tight supply situation, weakening the support for the synthetic rubber industry chain, and the upward pressure on butadiene rubber is expected to gradually increase [3]. - In the medium term, the market is not keen on short - selling butadiene rubber at low valuations. This is because the "anti - involution" policy and supply - side optimization expectations support the overall valuation of commodities, and the rubber sector and butadiene fundamentals are neutral. Synthetic rubber has been de - stocking slightly for several weeks, and the sales pressure of butadiene factories is not significant, providing support for pricing [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of butadiene rubber decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 11,715 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 67,123 lots to 169,064 lots, the open interest decreased by 89 lots to 35,691 lots, and the turnover increased by 372,052 ten - thousand yuan to 977,025 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis difference between Shandong butadiene and the futures main contract increased by 25 to - 65, the monthly spread BR09 - BR10 remained unchanged at - 10. The prices of North China, East China, and South China's private butadiene increased by 100 yuan/ton, the Shandong butadiene market price (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 11,650 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu butadiene - styrene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 200 yuan/ton and 150 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton and 160 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained at 67.9045%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained at 12,182 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber remained at - 282 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - As of August 20, 2025 (Week 34), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. Most overhauled butadiene rubber plants restarted, domestic production recovered, the mainstream supply price increased due to capital speculation and the natural rubber market, but the downstream's price - pressing procurement led to slow terminal sales, with a slight decrease in sample production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Overview - The report is the Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report on August 21, 2025, covering various energy and chemical products [1]. 1. Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual product ratings: - Bullish: p-Xylene, PTA, MEG, Rubber, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Caustic Soda [2][4][11][42] - Bearish: Glass, Soda Ash [52][65] - Neutral: Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, PP, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Fuel Oil, Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil [2][15][18][34][38][47][54][59][62][67][79][82] - Hold 10 short positions (discretionary): Container Shipping Index (European Line) [2] 2. Core Views - **p-Xylene, PTA, MEG**: p-Xylene has cost support and improving demand, PTA has strong cost support and improving terminal demand, and MEG has reduced imports and inventory, all expected to be bullish in the short term [4][9][10]. - **Rubber**: It shows a volatile and bullish trend, with futures prices rising and inventory decreasing [11][12][14]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to trade within a range, with short-term pressure from increased butadiene supply and mid-term support from policies and fundamentals [15][17]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to be volatile and bearish, with a decline in cracking spread, increasing production in September, and decreasing capacity utilization [18][32]. - **LLDPE**: It is expected to trade within a range, with short-term influence from industry sentiment, decreasing maintenance in August, and improving demand in the future [34][35]. - **PP**: It shows a weak trend, but shorting at low levels should be cautious due to uncertain cost and policy factors [38][39]. - **Caustic Soda**: It should be treated bullishly, with increasing demand from alumina and export support, despite potential supply limitations [42][44]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to trade in a range, with weak demand and limited support from the paper market [47][48]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable, with general market trading and limited improvement in downstream demand [51][52]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade within a range, with short-term pressure from increasing port inventory and mid-term support from policies and fundamentals [54][57][58]. - **Urea**: It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term, with increasing inventory and support from export information [59][60][61]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to compress profits and trade in a range, with downstream inventory at a medium-high level and limited replenishment power [62][63]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with weak market trends, stable production, and general downstream demand [65]. - **LPG, Propylene**: They are supported by macro - sentiment premiums with limited fundamental changes, and the PDH operating rate has increased [67]. - **PVC**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term with continuous pressure, due to high supply, weak demand, and high inventory [79]. - **Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil strengthens slightly at night with reduced short - term fluctuations, and low - sulfur fuel oil consolidates narrowly with a falling high - low sulfur spread [82]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions discretionarily, with declining European shipping rates [84]. 3. Summary by Product p-Xylene, PTA, MEG - **p-Xylene**: Yesterday's closing price was 6844, up 1.03%. PX9 - 1 closed at 88. The spot price was 838 dollars/ton, up 2.83 dollars. Overnight crude oil inventory decreased, and PX is expected to rebound with cost support and improving demand. Pay attention to the 11 - 01 positive spread [5][9]. - **PTA**: Yesterday's closing price was 4778, up 0.93%. PTA9 - 1 closed at - 56. The spot price was stable at 4690 yuan/ton. It has strong cost support, and the 9 - 1 reverse spread can be held [5][8][10]. - **MEG**: Yesterday's closing price was 4477, up 1.20%. MEG9 - 1 closed at - 50. The spot price was 4502 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan. Korean petrochemicals will cut capacity, and MEG is expected to be bullish in the short term with reduced imports and inventory. The 9 - 1 spread can be operated in the - 50 - 0 range [5][8][10]. Rubber - Yesterday's day - session closing price was 15,675 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan, and the night - session closing price was 15,755 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. It is expected to be volatile and bullish [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - The day - session closing price of butadiene rubber was 11,715 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The inventory of domestic high - cis butadiene rubber increased slightly. It is expected to trade within a range [15]. Asphalt - BU2509 closed at 3,493 yuan/ton, up 0.09%, and BU2510 closed at 3,454 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The refinery operating rate decreased to 35.61%. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [18]. LLDPE - L2601 closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The market price continued to decline slightly. It is expected to trade within a range [34]. PP - PP2601 closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The market price was weak. It shows a weak trend, but shorting at low levels should be cautious [38][39]. Caustic Soda - The 11 - contract futures price was 2698 yuan/ton, and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 850 yuan/ton. It should be treated bullishly due to increasing demand [42][44]. Pulp - The day - session closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,136 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The demand from the paper market was weak. It is expected to trade in a range [48]. Glass - FG601 closed at 1162 yuan/ton, down 4.36%. The spot price was stable with general trading. It shows a bearish trend [52]. Methanol - The main contract closed at 2,424 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan. The port inventory increased. It is expected to trade within a range [55][57]. Urea - The closing price was 1,776 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan. The enterprise inventory increased. It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term [59][60]. Styrene - The 2509 contract closed at 7,261 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The downstream inventory was at a medium - high level. It is expected to compress profits and trade in a range [62][63]. Soda Ash - SA2601 closed at 1,309 yuan/ton, down 5.01%. The spot market was weak. It is expected to be weak and volatile [65]. LPG, Propylene - PG2509 closed at 3,890 yuan/ton, up 0.99%, and PL2601 closed at 6,446 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The PDH operating rate increased. They are supported by macro - sentiment premiums with limited fundamental changes [67]. PVC - The 01 - contract futures price was 5008 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 4720 yuan/ton. It is expected to be volatile in the short term with continuous pressure [79]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - FU2510 closed at 2,718 yuan/ton, up 0.41%, and LU2510 closed at 3,446 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. Fuel oil strengthens slightly at night, and low - sulfur fuel oil consolidates narrowly [82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - EC2510 closed at 1,355.0, down 1.33%. The European shipping rates declined. Hold 10 short positions discretionarily [84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term prices are approaching the upper limit of fundamental valuation and will gradually face pressure, while the medium - term trend remains range - bound. In the short term, the increase in butadiene arrivals eases the tight port situation, weakening the support for the synthetic rubber industry chain, so the upward pressure on butadiene rubber is expected to gradually increase. In the medium term, the market is not keen on short - selling at the low valuation of butadiene rubber. There are two main reasons: first, the anti - involution policy, although not radical in the short term, has a long - term policy orientation, which supports the overall valuation of commodities; second, the fundamentals of the rubber sector and butadiene are neutral, and the continuous de - stocking of synthetic rubber for several weeks and the lack of obvious sales pressure on butadiene rubber factories support the pricing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (10 contract), the daily closing price was 11,840 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 101,941 lots (up 40,936 lots), the open interest was 35,780 lots (up 4,178 lots), and the trading volume was 604.973 million yuan (up 244.592 million yuan). The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 90 (down 40), the monthly spread of BR09 - BR10 (private) was - 10 (down 5). The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene rubber (private) all increased by 100 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,750 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) remained unchanged at 12,350 yuan, while the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) increased by 100 yuan to 11,350 yuan. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu decreased by 50 yuan to 9,350 yuan, and the mainstream price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan to 9,450 yuan [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained at 67.9045%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained at 12,182 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber remained at - 282 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Inventory Situation - As of August 13, 2025 (week 33), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 30,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. Due to the unstable output of previously shut - down devices and the influence of stronger raw materials and natural rubber, the inventory level continued to decline [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend outlooks for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., with different trends such as strong, weak, and neutral [2][10][11]. - For each commodity, the report analyzes factors like cost, supply, demand, and inventory to form views and suggestions on trading strategies [10][11][36]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost support is weak, but terminal demand improves, and the 9 - 1 month - spread continues to strengthen. PX may be stronger than oil prices, but the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Fuhua Group [10]. - **PTA**: The unilateral price is in a volatile market with limited downside space. The supply is marginally tightened, and the demand improves month - on - month. It is recommended to maintain the 9 - 1 reverse spread [11]. - **MEG**: Import arrivals decrease, and there is marginal destocking. The 9 - 1 month - spread should be operated in the range of - 50 to 0, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended. The basis strengthens [11]. Rubber - The rubber market is in a weakly volatile trend. The trading volume and open interest of the futures market increase, and the basis and spread show certain changes. The automobile industry has policy support, but there are still limitations to the growth of commercial vehicle production and sales [12][13][15]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short - term, there is a callback, and in the medium - term, it remains range - bound. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber has decreased. In the short - term, the support from butadiene weakens, while in the medium - term, there are factors supporting the price [16][18]. Asphalt - The shipment is not good, and it is difficult for crude oil to be bullish. The production volume in September is expected to increase, and the factory inventory has accumulated. The market is in a neutral trend [19][33]. LLDPE - It is in a range - bound trend. The cost decreases due to the decline in crude oil prices. The supply pressure increases, but there may be a phased relief in September. The demand will improve gradually, and the inventory provides some support [35][36]. PP - The trend is weak, but short - selling at low levels should be cautious. The cost is weak, the demand has no obvious highlights, and the supply pressure increases. However, there is uncertainty in the cost, and attention should be paid to the low - level support [38][39]. Caustic Soda - It should be treated bullishly, but attention should be paid to the near - month warehouse receipts. The demand is expanding, especially the demand from alumina. The export support is strong, but the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream may limit the profit expansion [42][43]. Pulp - It is in a volatile trend. The trading volume and open interest of the futures market increase, and the basis strengthens. The international price of pulp is weak, and the demand market is sluggish [45][47]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures price decreases, and the basis weakens. The market trading is average, but the downstream rigid demand has increased slightly [51][52]. Methanol - It is in a volatile trend. The port inventory accumulates, and in the short - term, the 01 contract is weak due to the high inventory. In the medium - term, there are factors supporting the price [54][57]. Urea - In the short - term, it is driven by news, and the upside space is narrowing. The enterprise inventory has increased, and the market speculation is strong. Attention should be paid to the spot trading and speculative sentiment [59][60]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The market is weakly volatile, the supply is high, and the downstream demand is average [62][64]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: There is still a risk of a squeeze in the near - month contract. The futures prices of different contracts show certain changes, and the spread also changes [67][68]. - **Propylene**: The cost support is weak. The PDH and other industrial chain operating rates show some changes [68]. PVC - The trend is weak. India's anti - dumping tax on PVC exports from China will affect export competitiveness. The supply is at a high level, the domestic demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates [75]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is in a weakly volatile trend with reduced short - term fluctuations. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a narrow - range consolidation, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the external market rebounds slightly [78]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in a volatile consolidation, and it is advisable to hold 10 short positions as appropriate. The futures prices of different contracts change, and the freight rates of European and US - West routes show different trends [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Short - term port inventory of methanol is accelerating, and the 01 contract is weak in the short - term under the premium situation, but remains in a mid - term shock pattern. The main reasons for the mid - term shock are the support of anti - involution policies, the strong fundamentals of the MA2601 contract in the fourth quarter, and the expected restart of some MTOs in September [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, on August 19, 2025, the closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,396 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the trading volume was 438,253 lots, down 48,430 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 665,628 lots, up 42,183 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10,968 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 1051.859 million yuan, down 130.759 million yuan; the basis was - 94, down 7; the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 103, down 7 [1] - In the spot market, on August 19, 2025, the ex - tank price in Jiangsu was 2,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,060 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in northern Shaanxi was 2,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Shandong was 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Spot News - The report does not provide specific content in this part Futures Research - As of August 13, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.0218 million tons, an increase of 96,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 10.41%. The port inventory continued to accumulate this week, with 236,000 tons of visible unloading of foreign vessels and many non - visible unloading. The inventory in East China increased due to stable supply despite increased提货, and the inventory in South China increased significantly due to concentrated arrivals [3] - The trend strength of methanol is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - The synthetic rubber is approaching the upper limit of fundamental valuation, and the upside space is narrowing [2][4]. - The port tightness pattern of butadiene has been alleviated, and it is expected to pull back in the short - term and enter a weak pattern in the medium - to - long term. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the upper pressure of synthetic rubber is 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The nr - br spread fluctuates in the short - term [5]. - **Inventory**: This week, the output and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber continued to decline. The output was 27,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.29 percentage points. It is expected to increase in the next cycle. The overall demand of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate. As of August 13, 2025, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.18% [6]. - **Valuation**: The static fundamental valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to decline slightly. The upper valuation limit is 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is 11,200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene supply increased. This period's output was 105,300 tons, a 2.73% increase from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate was 69.69%, a 0.07% decrease from the previous period [7]. - **Demand**: Synthetic rubber has a high demand for butadiene, and the demand for ABS is constant with limited increments. The demand for SBS maintains rigid procurement with little change [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased by 11.70% week - on - week. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.46% week - on - week, and the sample port inventory increased by 38.78% week - on - week. As of August 13, the latest inventory in East China ports was about 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons from the previous period [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than that of downstream industries. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [14][16]. - **Supply - side -开工率**: The butadiene weekly operating rate shows fluctuations, and many enterprises have experienced shutdowns and restarts [18][19]. - **Demand - side**: The production capacity of downstream industries such as butadiene - based cis - and styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS is expanding [22][31]. - **Inventory - side**: The butadiene weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory show different trends over time [34][35][36]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply - side**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows fluctuations. Many enterprises' devices are in different operating states, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and restart [40][41]. - **Cost and profit**: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [43][44][45]. - **Import and export**: The monthly import and export volume of butadiene rubber shows fluctuations [46][47]. - **Inventory**: The weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [51][52][53]. - **Demand - side**: The demand for butadiene rubber from the tire industry shows different trends in inventory and operating rate [55][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the urea market will maintain a range - bound pattern. The willingness to short at the fundamental valuation support level is weak due to anti - involution policies and policy uncertainties. In the long - term, with clearer policies, it is recommended to short at high prices under the background of high fundamental pressure [2]. - The production profit of urea is at the break - even line, and the daily output remains high. The raw material price is stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The cash - flow cost of urea currently corresponds to a profitable state [2][29][37]. - The export policy has been adjusted, and the subsequent export volume may increase. The domestic demand is weak, with the agricultural demand decreasing and the industrial demand being sluggish [2][43]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the historical trends of urea basis, monthly spreads, and spot prices (domestic and international), including the basis of different enterprises, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 5 monthly spreads, and the spot prices of different regions and types of urea [5][9][15][20]. Domestic Supply Capacity - In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea capacity continues. In 2024, the total new capacity was 427 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 346 tons, with many new projects put into production or planned [24]. Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including information such as enterprise name, annual capacity, raw materials, model, parking and starting dates, and reasons [28]. Output - The production profit of urea is at the break - even line, but the daily output remains high. The charts show the historical trends of China's daily urea output, capacity utilization rate, and the output of coal - based and gas - based urea [29][30]. Cost - The raw material price is stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The report provides a cost calculation table for fixed - bed factories in the Shanxi region [32]. Profit - The cash - flow cost of urea currently corresponds to a profitable state, and the charts show the historical trends of the cash - flow profit of fixed - bed devices and the production profit of different cost - based urea [37][38]. Net Import (Export) - The export policy has been adjusted, and the subsequent export volume may increase. The table shows the monthly and annual export data of urea from 2018 - 2025 [43]. Domestic Demand Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand has seasonal characteristics, and the demand for urea in corn has increased due to high - standard farmland construction [49][52]. Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The charts show the historical trends of the production cost, factory inventory, production gross profit, and capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers [56][57][58]. - **Melamine**: The charts show the historical trends of the production gross profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [60][61]. - **Real Estate**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. The charts show the export volume of wood products and the cumulative data of real estate completion and construction areas [62][63]. Inventory - On August 13, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.86%. By August 14, 2025 (week 33), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 464,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.93% [67]. International Urea - The charts show the historical trends of international urea spot prices, including the FOB prices of large - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and China, and the CFR price of large - particle urea in Brazil [20][71][72][73][74].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's polyurethane and fine chemicals businesses are performing steadily, while the petrochemical business is under profit pressure [6] - The company is expected to benefit from technological innovation and capacity upgrades, enhancing cost control and product competitiveness [11] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 90.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.12 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year [5] - The second quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 47.83 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.0% and an increase of 11.1% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2025 were 13.84% and 7.39%, respectively, both showing declines compared to the previous year [6] Product Performance Summary - Revenue from the polyurethane series, petrochemical series, and fine chemicals and new materials series was 36.89 billion yuan, 34.93 billion yuan, and 15.63 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4.0%, -11.7%, and +20.4% [6] - The sales volume for these product lines was 3.03 million tons, 2.85 million tons, and 1.19 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.6%, 3.6%, and 29.3% [6] Market Conditions and Outlook - The polyurethane prices are expected to rise due to low inventory levels and supply-side optimization, with recent price increases for pure MDI and TDI of 5.3% and 37.0%, respectively [7] - The company is accelerating its new materials layout and enhancing product competitiveness through innovation and capacity expansion [8][10] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.72 billion yuan, 16.91 billion yuan, and 19.08 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 [11] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 201.98 billion yuan, 221.05 billion yuan, and 245.74 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.9%, 9.4%, and 11.2% [13][15]