来源：北京时间 22日早间，现货黄金（伦敦金现）强势拉涨，盘中突破10月20日创下的历史纪录（4381.484美元），再 创新高。截至发稿，报4380.290美元/盎司，涨近1%。 对于年内金价强劲上涨，东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲此前表示，是多重引擎共振效应的结果。一是全球 央行延续2022年以来的购金趋势，这也是2022年以来黄金牛市最坚实的基础。二是地缘政治风险和代关 税政策带来较大不确定性。三是金融市场对美联储降息周期与债务问题的重定价。 此外，世界黄金协会12日报告显示，11月全球实物黄金ETF流入达52亿美元，已连续六个月实现流入。 截至11月底，资产管理总规模增至5300亿美元，环比增长5.4%；总持仓上升1%至3932吨，均创新高， 今年全球黄金ETF流入总量有望创下历史最佳年度表现。 芦哲表示，央行购金趋势未变、全球去美元化与地缘政治碎片化仍是长期过程、美国等主要经济体财政 与债务风险仍存等各种基础仍然稳固，对黄金的信用对冲需求继续存在且可能继续扩张，黄金牛市的核 心逻辑未被颠覆。 Wind数据显示，现货黄金价格年内涨幅超65%。 ...

深圳水贝市场的银饰柜台前，一位商家指着价格牌告诉记者，这里的银价相比一年多前已经普遍翻倍 白银市场正经历一场"震荡蓄势—加速突破—高位狂奔"的超级行情 相比之下，同期黄金约60%的涨幅仅为白银的一半 贵金属市场在2025年上演了一场戏剧性的角色转换。长期以来作为"配角"存在的白银，今年意外成为舞台中央的主角 截至12月12日，COMEX白银期货报64.835美元/盎司，较年初的29.3美元/盎司上涨约120% 这一涨幅刷新了白银市场的历史记录 市场热度甚至引发监管关注。上海期货交易所在12月11日发布通知，调整了白银期货合约的交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度 深圳水贝等贵金属交易市场，投资者正将目光从黄金转向白银 受黄金价格高企和加税等因素影响，不少商家开始增加白银产品的销售 投资者"豆豆"就是这波行情的受益者之一。她在10月初以10.68元/克的价格买入50公斤白银板料，中途通过买卖操作，仅两个 月便获得了16万元收益 实体市场也反映了这一变化。深圳田贝地区的银饰商家表示，目前银饰价格较一年多前已普遍翻倍 按克重计价的银饰从去年约9元/克涨至现在的17元/克～18元/克 这场白银狂潮并非单纯的资金炒作，而是多重 ...

今日A股震荡下行。上证指数收于3867.92点，下跌0.55%，深证成指收于13112.09点，下跌1.10%。两市 共计成交不足1.8万亿元，较前一交易日有所下降。市场整体跌多涨少，电子通信方向领跌。当前A股所 处的经济和政策环境整体维持积极，预计财政支出将保持积极，推动经济总需求回暖。中期来看，在各 项稳增长措施及宽松货币、财政政策落地后，总需求增速有望重回扩张区间，带动A股重新进入上行周 期。 统计局日前发布的经济数据显示，11月CPI、PPI保持稳定，固定资产投资增速加速下滑，其中房地产开 发投资增速累计同比录得-15.9%继续寻底。在供给偏强、需求偏弱、投资趋缓、通胀低位的环境下，债 券仍然具有配置价值。就点位而言，当前10年期国债收益率突破1.85%的央行合意区间上沿，且需求端 或因长债利率上升增加配置需求。建议适当关注久期策略，持续关注十年国债ETF(511260)。 黄金板块今日表现亮眼，黄金基金ETF(518800)上涨1.37%，黄金股票ETF(517400)上涨1.28%。短期， 12月FOMC降息25bp，并在12月启动准备金管理购买；俄乌和谈仍在拉扯，特朗普持续对委内瑞拉施 压。中长 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pricing logic of gold has undergone a profound transformation, with the traditional "real interest rate" and "US dollar" pricing anchors losing effectiveness after 2022. A diversified pricing system centered on "fiat currency credit hedging" and assisted by "global geopolitical order reconstruction" has emerged. In 2026, gold is expected to verify and extend the stability of this system, with an annual operating range of $3,900 - $4,800 per ounce and an average annual price of around $4,500 per ounce [2][113]. - Silver is likely to follow the trend of gold, with a greater price elasticity. In 2026, the shortage in the silver fundamentals and inventory liquidity risks are expected to become consensus and supporting factors, with the expected regression of the gold - silver ratio as the main driving force. The London spot silver is projected to fluctuate between $50 - $80 per ounce [2][116]. - In the context of the systematic re - evaluation of gold as a core credit - hedging asset, 2026 will be a year of both opportunities and further differentiation for platinum and palladium. Their prices will not only follow the upward trend of gold's financial attributes but also continue the divergent trend of "strong platinum and weak palladium" due to their different fundamentals. The London spot platinum is expected to find strong support in the $1,450 - $1,550 per ounce area and challenge the key resistance range of $1,800 - $2,000 per ounce, with an average annual price of around $1,750 per ounce. The London spot palladium is expected to oscillate in a wider range, with support at $1,050 - $1,250 per ounce and resistance at $1,600 - $1,800 per ounce, and an average annual price of around $1,300 per ounce [5][117]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. 2025 Year - end Review and Influencing Factors of Precious Metals - **Gold**: In 2025, the gold market was influenced by multiple factors such as global macro - economic conditions, geopolitical changes, and market sentiment. The London spot gold fluctuated between $2,613.9 - $4,381.17 per ounce, with an average price of about $3,400.79 per ounce, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. The price increase was driven by factors including Trump's policies, Fed policy changes, and concerns about the US dollar's credit [7][8]. - **Silver**: The London spot silver achieved a historical breakthrough, fluctuating between $28.311 - $58.968 per ounce, with an average price of $38.192 per ounce, a year - on - year increase of about 33.2%. The price increase was promoted by the strong rise of gold and the expected regression of the gold - silver ratio [8]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: In 2025, the platinum and palladium markets were a game between supply - demand mismatch and financial attributes. The London spot platinum fluctuated between $878.3 - $1,770 per ounce, with an average price of about $1,253.3 per ounce, a year - on - year increase of about 30%. The London spot palladium fluctuated between $870.5 - $1,695 per ounce, with an average price of $1,165.7 per ounce, a year - on - year increase of about 18.5%. On November 27, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange officially launched platinum and palladium futures [5][10]. 2. 2025 Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis - **Gold Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2025, the supply of gold increased slightly, with a 1.2% increase in output to 3,717.4 tons in the first three quarters compared to the same period last year. The net demand for gold increased by 10% to 3,639.7 tons in the first three quarters. The gold surplus decreased to 77.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 78.7%. Investment demand returned, with an increase in the demand for gold bars, medals, and an increase in the holdings of gold ETFs. However, central bank gold purchases decreased by 12.5% to 633.6 tons [28][41][43]. - **Silver Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2025, the global silver supply increased slightly, reaching 32,055 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 1.5%. The total demand was 35,716 tons, a slight decrease of 1.4% compared to 2024. Industrial demand remained stable, investment demand recovered, and traditional photography, jewelry, and silverware demand declined. The silver market was in a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year [46][47][49]. - **Platinum and Palladium Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply of platinum and palladium was unstable in 2025. Global platinum mine production was expected to decline by 6%, and palladium mine production was also expected to decline by 6%. However, recycling improved. Platinum demand was diversified, while palladium demand was highly concentrated in the automotive sector. Platinum demand was supported by the "platinum replacing palladium" trend and the growth of hybrid vehicles, while palladium demand faced a structural decline due to the increase in electric vehicle penetration and platinum substitution [58][59][62]. 3. Macro - analysis: Multiple Narratives of Gold in the Intersection of the US Mid - term Election Year and Geopolitical Fission - **US Mid - term Election Year**: In 2026, the US government may adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to boost election support. Fiscal deficits are expected to widen, and the Fed may cut interest rates. However, these policies may also lead to concerns about "stagflation" or "re - inflation" and increase short - term volatility in gold prices through trade and tariff policies [74][75][76]. - **Geopolitics**: The geopolitical situation in 2026 will be more complex, with a shift from traditional military confrontation to a "composite game" in the economic, trade, and technology fields. Although the peace process in the Middle East and Ukraine may bring short - term stability, potential risks still exist. Gold will have a structural premium due to geopolitical uncertainties, and central banks and large institutional investors will continue to increase their gold holdings [91][92]. - **Financial Market Narrative**: In 2026, the narratives of "soft landing", "re - inflation", or "stagflation" of the US economy will compete, leading to further differentiation in asset prices. Gold has become an asset for hedging against the volatility of US stocks, and the impact of the US dollar on gold prices needs to be considered in terms of its short - term and long - term trends [105][110][112]. 4. Conclusion - **Gold**: In 2026, gold is expected to oscillate upward and set new historical highs, with an annual operating range of $3,900 - $4,800 per ounce and an average annual price of around $4,500 per ounce. The price may experience different stages: high - level oscillation in the first half of the year, a main upward wave in the second half, and a potential technical correction in the fourth quarter [113][115][116]. - **Silver**: Silver is expected to follow the trend of gold with greater elasticity. The London spot silver is projected to fluctuate between $50 - $80 per ounce in 2026 [116]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum is expected to show stronger price elasticity and upward potential, while palladium is likely to oscillate in a wider range with a downward - shifting center of gravity [117].

| | | | COMEX黄金 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | GC.CMX | | | | | | 4230.5 | | 昨结 | 4217.7 | 总手 | | 7.43万 | | +12.8 | +0.30% 开盘 | | 4219.6 | 现手 | | 1 | | 最高价 | 4242.3 持 仓 | | 31.95万 | 外 雷 | | 3.56万 | | 最低价 | 4197.8 增 仓 | | -1096 | 内 盘 | | 3.87万 | | 分时 モ日 | | 日K | 周K | 月K | 重多 | | | 童加 | | | | 均价:4219.8 | | | | 4242.3 | | | | 0.58% 立一 | 4230.7 | | | | | | | दो -- | 4230.5 | 2 | | | | | | 6:18 | 4230.7 | 1 | | | | | | 6:18 | 4230.5 | 2 | | | | | | 0.00% | 6:18 4230.8 | 1 | | | | | | 6 ...

美联储降息动向及人事调整主导美元走势，进而影响美瑞汇率。市场高度关注其12月9-10日议息会议， 当前定价本次降息25个基点概率近85%，美元指数承压令美瑞汇率存下行压力。此外，特朗普拟明年初 公布美联储主席人选，热门候选人哈塞特被预期倾向更大幅度降息，进一步压制美元。短期需警惕美国 核心通胀走强或美联储鹰派言论引发的美元反弹风险。 多重外围因素加剧美瑞汇率波动。瑞士央行正将美元储备向欧元多元化配置，截至2025年6月，美元、 欧元占比分别为39%、37%，长期或削弱美元需求。全球去美元化趋势持续，新西兰超级年金基金等机 构转投欧洲股市，加剧美元弱势预期。此外，全球风险情绪、地缘冲突将影响美元避险吸引力，而瑞郎 作为避险货币，需求随风险偏好反向调整。 机构对美瑞汇率走势分歧显著，核心聚焦政策催化。技术面显示，汇价在0.8000-0.8050区间震荡，上方 0.8101、0.8123为阻力位，下方0.7872、0.7877为支撑位；MACD短期偏空但动能不足，RSI处于中性， 方向性突破待政策或数据催化。短期关注本周瑞央行及美联储议息会议，其政策指引将决定汇率下一阶 段走向。长期来看，美联储政策不确定性、瑞央行 ...

将会得到惊喜——这五个字从俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃口中说出时，现场记者立刻捕捉到话语中潜藏的强烈暗示。4日在圣彼得 堡举行的记者会上，扎哈罗娃就欧盟可能没收俄罗斯被冻结资产的计划发出了这一看似含蓄、实则锋利的警告。她没有进一步展开细 节，也没有明确解释，但言外之意已经相当清楚：如果欧盟敢动俄罗斯的这笔资金，俄方的反击绝对不会仅仅停留在外交言辞的层 面。 一、欧盟的算盘与俄罗斯的底线 此次争议起因于欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在3日提出的新版援助乌克兰的方案。她计划将原本高 达1860亿美元的俄罗斯被冻结资产用于援助乌克兰的金额削减至约1050亿美元，以此来平衡部分欧盟成员国的反对声音。然而，这一 举动直接触及到了俄罗斯的底线。俄罗斯在欧洲清算银行（位于比利时布鲁塞尔）的巨额资产，已经成为了俄欧博弈中的核心筹码。 扎哈罗娃直言不讳地批评冯德莱恩的做法不当，她指出，这一举措不仅涉嫌违反国际财产保护的基本原则，还因为欧盟试图将俄罗斯 的资产合法化作为对乌克兰的援助，实际上是在将经济工具转化为武器。比利时之所以强烈反对这一方案，正是担心俄方可能采取的 反制措施会波及到欧洲经济的关键领域。 结语：赌注已下，等待第一张骨牌倒 ...

中长期"美联储降息周期+海外不确定性加剧+全球去美元化趋势"对于金价依然构成一定支撑，投资者 可关注黄金基金ETF（518800）和黄金股票ETF（517400）。 相关机构表示，美联储12月降息预期大幅提升至超80%。旧金山联储Daly警告美国劳动力市场面临非线 性变化的风险，尽管经济已在"招聘少、裁员少"的平衡状态维持了一段时间，但这种平衡正变得愈发脆 弱。而通胀大幅反弹的风险较低，因为关税推动的成本上涨比预期更温和。这也呼应了纽约联储John Williams上周的表态。此外，美联储理事Christopher Waller周一也表态支持在12月降息，并从 2026 年开 始采取更加灵活的政策。尽管鸽派声音渐强，但美联储委员会内部的分歧依然显著。波士顿联储Susan Collins就表达了更为谨慎的看法。她认为，当前"温和或适度从紧"的政策立场仍然合适，因为有韧性的 需求可能继续对通胀构成上行压力。她表示，将在下次会议上保持谨慎。截至12月1日9点，Fed Watch 显示的最新12月降息概率超87%。 每日经济新闻 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold sector is experiencing significant activity, with COMEX gold prices surpassing 4270 and gold ETFs showing notable increases, driven by heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen dramatically to over 80%, with support from several Fed officials, including Christopher Waller, who advocates for a more flexible policy starting in 2026 [1][2]. - The latest Fed Watch data indicates a probability of over 87% for a rate cut in December [1]. Geopolitical Tensions - The outlook for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remains uncertain, with recent discussions in Geneva yielding a modified plan that has faced resistance from Russia [1][2]. - Tensions between China and Japan continue, with China urging Japan to take its demands seriously, while former President Trump has indicated potential actions against Venezuela, contributing to rising geopolitical risks that favor gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Investment Opportunities - The combination of a potential Fed rate cut, increasing geopolitical uncertainties, and a global trend towards de-dollarization is expected to provide ongoing support for gold prices [2]. - Investors may consider gradually accumulating positions in gold ETFs (518800) and gold stock ETFs (517400) during market dips [2].

截至上周五(11月28日)，伦敦现货黄金报收4218.55美元/盎司，自11月21日以来累计上涨154.27美元/盎司，涨幅3.80%。上周伦敦现货黄金价格震荡走强，金 价周一盘中最低触及4039.89美元/盎司，周五最高上行至4226.80美元/盎司。 回顾上周以来海外主要市场动态：美国9月PPI温和反弹；多位美联储官员表态支持降息，目前降息预期大幅提升至超80%，支撑金价上涨；地缘方面，俄乌 和谈前景仍然有较大不确定性，特朗普表示将对委内瑞拉开展行动，中日紧张关系未见缓和，地缘风险利好黄金避险属性。目前美元指数弱势、美债维持低 位，对金价的利空左右或有限。 短期市场聚焦12月美联储会议，中长期"美联储降息周期+海外不确定性加剧+全球去美元化趋势"对于金价构成一定支撑，或可考虑逢低分批布局黄金基金 ETF(518800)。关注本周美国9月PCE报告，本周末中国公布11月央行购金情况等。 周度回顾： 经济数据上：美国9月PPI温和反弹，核心商品分项出现回落。9月核心PPI环比回升0.2pp至0.1%，但低于预期(彭博一致预期，下同)的0.2%，核心PPI同比 2.6%，亦低于预期的2.7%。分项来看，核心商品 ...