市场消息：以色列为避免关税压力，向美国提出贸易方面的让步。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that tariff pressures will push global public debt beyond pandemic levels, potentially reaching nearly 100% of global GDP by the end of this decade [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Global Public Debt Projections** - The IMF's latest Fiscal Monitor report forecasts that global public debt will increase by 2.8 percentage points, reaching 95.1% of global GDP by 2025 [1] - This upward trend is expected to continue, with projections indicating that by 2030, global public debt could reach 99.6% of global GDP [1] - **Factors Contributing to Debt Increase** - The report highlights that rising defense spending, increased demand for social support, and higher costs of debt servicing are straining government budgets [1] - Governments will face tougher trade-offs due to these financial pressures [1]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短线下跌 | 中美贸易加征关税事件进一步利多影响有限。南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植即 | | | | 将开启。国内港口及油厂大豆连续两周累库，本周大豆开机回升，预计下周豆粕库 | | | | 存有望逐步进入累库周期。4-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。中美贸易对峙利多情绪 | | 豆粕 | | 转弱，昨日豆粕延续小幅收跌。豆粕焦点再度转入基本面，由于短期国内边际供应 | | | | 预计逐步增加，且国际层面美豆未来十五天降雨充沛，在缺乏基本面利多支持下， | | | | 豆粕短期偏弱偏空运行为主。主力【3050，2965】 | | | 短期下跌 | 国内菜粕库存远高于过去两年同期，加上 5 月国内迎来新季菜籽收获上市。菜粕短 | | | | 期供应预计充足。豆菜粕现货价差近日再度扩大至 600 元/吨以上，菜粕替代性下 | | 菜粕 | | 降。盘面上，受短期库存及供应压力影响，菜粕短期承压下跌，偏空对待。主力 | | | | 【2540,2660】 | | 棕榈油 | 短线反弹整理 | 4 月国际棕 ...

Economic Goals and Policy Adjustments - The economic target for this year is set at 5.0%, which is crucial under external tariff pressures[1] - The deficit ratio has been raised to 4.0%, indicating a need for increased policy support to meet the economic target[1] - Special bonds amounting to 4.4 trillion and 1.3 trillion in ultra-long special bonds are planned, with 500 billion allocated to supplement bank capital[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Dynamics - The issuance of local special bonds is expected to be 3.6 trillion, lower than last year's 3.9 trillion, reflecting a central government expansion and local government contraction in leverage[3] - The focus for the upcoming quarters will be on the pace of policy implementation, with a pattern of strong Q1 performance followed by a slowdown in Q2 and acceleration in Q4 observed over the past two years[2] - The inflation target has been adjusted down to 2.0%, aligning more closely with realistic expectations rather than aiming for aggressive increases[1] Supply-Side Dependence - The upward trend in domestic commodities is primarily reliant on supply-side factors, which have received policy confirmation[1] - The core of the policy analysis indicates a continued focus on high-quality development through 2025, with the current measures reflecting last year's political meeting's spirit[3] - Without comprehensive leverage increases, domestic demand may not significantly drive prices, maintaining a supply-side logic path[3]