Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI is 50.3, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April[2] - Overall PMI data shows improvement, indicating reduced economic pressure compared to April[3] Group 2: Production and Demand Insights - Production index rose to 50.7, above the neutral line, while demand recovery was less pronounced[4] - New orders increased by 0.6 percentage points to 49.8, and new export orders rose by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5[4] - The "production-demand gap" expanded by 0.3 percentage points to 0.9 percentage points[4] Group 3: Inventory and Price Trends - Raw material inventory increased by 0.4 percentage points to 47.4, while finished goods inventory decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 46.5[5] - Price indicators have declined for three consecutive months, with purchasing prices down 0.1 percentage points to 46.9[5] - Factory gate prices also fell by 0.1 percentage points to 44.7, indicating ongoing profit pressure for enterprises[5] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing PMI slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.3, underperforming compared to historical averages[10] - Consumer services sector showed resilience, increasing by 2.3 percentage points to 51.6, while production services declined[11] - Construction PMI fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51.0, with civil engineering improving but housing construction declining[10]

特朗普频频施压库克：苹果必须本土制造！ 苹果面临的挑战远比表面看起来更加复杂。 苹果美股盘前跳水，现跌近4%，特朗普威胁对苹果征税。 目前，苹果在美国完全没有智能手机生产线。虽然苹果此前承诺在美国雇用更多工人，并承诺在未来四 年内在美国投资数十亿美元，但要将整个iPhone生产线迁移到美国，无论从技术、成本还是时间角度都 面临巨大挑战。 23日周五，据媒体报道，特朗普在Truth Social上发帖称，他早就告诉苹果CEO蒂姆·库克希望他在"美国 销售的iPhone将在美国制造和生产"，而不是印度或其他地方。 "如果不是这样，苹果必须向美国支付至少25%的关税。" 据参考消息网5月16日报道，特朗普15日在卡塔尔首都多哈与企业高管会面时说： "昨天我对库克有点不满。我对他说，蒂姆你是我的朋友，我对你非常好，你带着5000亿美元来这里。 但现在我听说你在印度各地建厂，我不希望你在印度建厂。因为印度是世界上关税最高的国家之一。" 15日，特朗普还曾透露他已与库克进行了交谈，并声称，作为这次谈话的结果，苹果将"增加他们在美 国的生产"。 特朗普对Tim Cook这一明显带有胁迫性质的言论已经在华尔街引起警觉。Hun ...

2025 年 5 月 15 日 总量研究 我国哪些产品可以无惧关税压力？ ——《见微知著》第二十二篇 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：周可 执业证书编号：S0930524120001 021-52523677 zhouke@ebscn.com 相关研报 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇（2025-05-12） 出口为何展现韧性？——2025年4月进出口 数据点评（2025-05-10） 关税压力将如何扰动出口？——2025年3月 进出口数据点评（2025-04-14） 要点 核心观点： 当前美国对自华进口关税税率整体水平大概在 47.1%-49.9%。在新关税水平下，我 国产品仍然具备较强的价格优势。美自华进口单价低于自全世界（除中国外）进口 单价的产品种类占比小幅下降 7.9 个百分点至 54.5%。毛毯、动植物油脂、人造纤 维针织品、吸尘器、椅子、手套、壁挂式空调、鞋靴、运动用品、床上用品等细分 产品的价格优势或面临挑战。 由于前期积压订单释放以及美国进入圣诞备货 ...

Core Insights - Intel is reportedly negotiating a large-scale wafer foundry contract with Microsoft for the production of chips using the 18A advanced process, attracting interest from tech giants like NVIDIA and Google, challenging TSMC's dominance [1] - The 18A process is described as potentially being an "iPhone moment" for the semiconductor industry, with Intel aiming to position it as an alternative to TSMC's N2 process [1] - Intel's 18A process is expected to enter stable mass production in the second half of this year, with performance claims comparable to TSMC's N2 process [1][2] Company Developments - Intel's new CEO, Pat Gelsinger, is focusing on electronic design automation (EDA), packaging, and wafer foundry services as part of the company's strategic vision [1] - The company is currently in the risk trial production phase for the 18A process, with expectations to transition to mass production within the year [1] Industry Context - The interest from major U.S. tech companies in the 18A process is driven by the need to mitigate geopolitical risks and alleviate tariff pressures, especially in light of potential semiconductor tariffs proposed by Trump [2] - Compared to TSMC and Samsung, Intel's supply chain appears to be more diversified, which could provide a geopolitical advantage if the 18A process achieves stable mass production [2]

索尼可能会根据最终关税和公司决策，受到G&NS营业利润4-53%的负面影响。如果公司完全将145%的 关税(大多数PS5在中国生产)转嫁给消费者，新价格可能会阻止消费者购买，导致PS5生命周期后半段的 安装基础大幅降低，从而损害其软件销售。 另一方面，吸收关税，即使是部分吸收，也可能意味着公司盈利能力的急剧侵蚀。在最好的情况下，公 司将在关税实施前的假期季节使用其积累的库存，并将生产转移到其他国家以尽量减少关税影响。 电子业务长期以来一直不景气，但瑞银看到了底部的迹象。由于大量投资，该行预计图像传感器业务将 实现增长。瑞银还预计游戏、电影和音乐将实现稳步增长。 关税压力依然存在 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银最新研报指出，Take Two旗下《侠盗猎车手6》（GTA6）从2025年秋季推迟至 2026年5月发布，将对索尼(SONY.US)造成超800亿日元（约合5.2亿美元）的营业利润冲击，相当于市 场对索尼2026财年第三季度预期利润的5%。该游戏原被视为2025年最大IP与索尼游戏业务核心催化 剂。瑞银给予索尼"买入"评级，目标价4300日元。 此前GTA6预计在2026财年全球销量将达3500-4000万份， ...

Core Viewpoint - Disney's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong results in theme parks and streaming services, leading to an upward revision of the full-year profit forecast [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Disney reported Q2 revenue of $23.62 billion, surpassing the expected $23.05 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 7% [1]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 were $1.45, exceeding the forecast of $1.20, and reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 20% [1]. - The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to a growth of 16% to $5.75, above the market expectation of $5.44, and projected operating cash flow of $17 billion, higher than the previous estimate of $15 billion [1]. Group 2: Business Segments Performance - The theme park segment showed strong performance, with revenue growth of 9% to $2.49 billion, primarily driven by increased visitors in California and Florida parks [3]. - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) streaming segment, including Disney+ and Hulu, achieved profitability for the fourth consecutive quarter, with profits reaching $336 million, significantly up from $47 million in the previous year [3]. - Disney+ added 1.4 million subscribers in the quarter, exceeding analyst expectations of a 1.25 million subscriber loss, despite a previous decline of 700,000 subscribers due to price increases [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Disney's CEO expressed confidence in the company's future, despite facing challenges such as tariff pressures from potential 100% tariffs on foreign-made films [5][7]. - The company is actively repurchasing shares, having bought back $1.8 billion worth of stock this fiscal year, and expects park revenue to grow by 6% to 8% in fiscal year 2025 [6]. - Disney aims to generate $1 billion from streaming services this year and continues to focus on enhancing the profitability of its online platforms [6].

市场消息：以色列为避免关税压力，向美国提出贸易方面的让步。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that tariff pressures will push global public debt beyond pandemic levels, potentially reaching nearly 100% of global GDP by the end of this decade [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Global Public Debt Projections** - The IMF's latest Fiscal Monitor report forecasts that global public debt will increase by 2.8 percentage points, reaching 95.1% of global GDP by 2025 [1] - This upward trend is expected to continue, with projections indicating that by 2030, global public debt could reach 99.6% of global GDP [1] - **Factors Contributing to Debt Increase** - The report highlights that rising defense spending, increased demand for social support, and higher costs of debt servicing are straining government budgets [1] - Governments will face tougher trade-offs due to these financial pressures [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term decline. The impact of Sino - US trade tariff increases is limited, South American soybean production is set, US soybean planting is about to start, domestic soybean stocks are accumulating, and with sufficient rainfall for US soybeans in the next 15 days, there is a lack of fundamental bullish support [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline. Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, new - season rapeseeds will be harvested in May, the substitution of rapeseed meal has decreased, and it is under pressure to fall due to inventory and supply [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound and consolidation. International palm oil supply and demand both increased in April, with marginal supply improvement. Domestic palm oil has low inventory and imports. The short - term rebound is due to good export data from Malaysia, but long - term trends need to consider US biodiesel policies, crude oil prices, and Malaysian palm oil exports [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Pressured and volatile. US macro data slightly benefits the commodity market, some countries show a tendency to purchase under tariff pressure, domestic cotton inventory is high and being reduced, new cotton is being sown, and the downstream demand is cautious, with the price expected to remain weak after a rebound [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Weak operation. The market is in the traditional off - season, fresh fruits are on the market, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand has not improved significantly, with prices expected to fluctuate and consolidate [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Rebound under pressure. The impact of the trade war has faded, the market cost - driven sentiment has slowed, supply is excessive, the consumption end lacks growth momentum, and there is a risk of a callback after the pre - holiday stocking market contracts [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3021 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3396.57 yuan/ton, up 45.71 yuan or 1.36% [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of April 11, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 400.82 million tons, up 100.07 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 362.24 million tons, up 71.81 million tons week - on - week, and bean粕 inventory was 29.05 million tons, down 28.86 million tons week - on - week [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2597 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.43% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, up 9.47 yuan or 0.37% [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of April 11, coastal area main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 34.8 million tons, up 5.5 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 2.07 million tons, down 1.06 million tons week - on - week [7]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8132 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan or 0.88% from the previous day. The national average price was 9080 yuan/ton, down 133 yuan or 1.44% [8]. - **Inventory Data**: As of a certain period, the weekly commercial inventory was 37.11 million tons, down 0.23 million tons from the previous period [8]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12885 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. The domestic spot average price was 14203 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [10]. - **Planting and Inventory Data**: As of April 13, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 5%. In China, the Xinjiang cotton sowing progress reached 62.3%. The cotton commercial inventory was 420.02 million tons, down 11 million tons from the previous period [11][12]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9450 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.32% from the previous day. The prices in different regions remained stable [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 10521 tons, down 134 tons from the previous period [14]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 14465 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.21% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 14930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.13% [16]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: The national sample enterprises' monthly live pig inventory was 3689.1 million tons, up 13.17 million tons month - on - month; the monthly live pig出栏量 was 1087.03 million tons, up 156.55 million tons month - on - month [16].

Economic Goals and Policy Adjustments - The economic target for this year is set at 5.0%, which is crucial under external tariff pressures[1] - The deficit ratio has been raised to 4.0%, indicating a need for increased policy support to meet the economic target[1] - Special bonds amounting to 4.4 trillion and 1.3 trillion in ultra-long special bonds are planned, with 500 billion allocated to supplement bank capital[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Dynamics - The issuance of local special bonds is expected to be 3.6 trillion, lower than last year's 3.9 trillion, reflecting a central government expansion and local government contraction in leverage[3] - The focus for the upcoming quarters will be on the pace of policy implementation, with a pattern of strong Q1 performance followed by a slowdown in Q2 and acceleration in Q4 observed over the past two years[2] - The inflation target has been adjusted down to 2.0%, aligning more closely with realistic expectations rather than aiming for aggressive increases[1] Supply-Side Dependence - The upward trend in domestic commodities is primarily reliant on supply-side factors, which have received policy confirmation[1] - The core of the policy analysis indicates a continued focus on high-quality development through 2025, with the current measures reflecting last year's political meeting's spirit[3] - Without comprehensive leverage increases, domestic demand may not significantly drive prices, maintaining a supply-side logic path[3]