近日，美国极寒天气频发，导致全美境内超过90万用户断电，部分地区电力现货批发价格一度突破每兆 瓦时3000美元，暴涨1400%。电价飙升同时引发缺电危机。而美国政府近期却以存在"国家安全风险"为 由，叫停所有正在建设的大型海上风电项目。其中包括全美规模最大的弗吉尼亚州近海风电项目，以及 美国东海岸另外4个在建海上风电项目。此令一出，市场哗然。5个被暂停的项目总容量达6吉瓦，足以 支撑数百万户家庭用电。此举不仅令清洁能源产业猝不及防，更折射出美国能源战略中难以调和的深层 矛盾。 此次事件折射的深层矛盾，已超出单一产业范畴。其一，暴露了美国基础设施更新与数字经济发展严重 脱节。当前，美国电力系统本就老旧不堪、运行紧张，决策层非但没有加速建设更具韧性、多元互补的 现代化电网，反而主动削减电力供给。其二，全球能源供应链的地缘政治色彩越发浓重。美国重新定 义"能源安全"内涵，甚至将本土清洁能源设施也视作风险来源，这可能引发其他国家效仿，从而延缓全 球可再生能源的发展进程。其三，凸显了美国推进"再工业化"与维持成本竞争力之间的两难境地。无论 是发展人工智能，还是推动制造业回流，都离不开充足且廉价的电力支撑，而此次叫停，无 ...

2026 年 01 月 28 日 特朗普引领下的美国战略方向在 哪？ ——2026 年美国《国家安全战略》解读 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 证 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 策 略 研 究 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 A 股 策 略 相关研究 - ⚫ 2025 年年底白宫发布《国家安全战略》，以下我们简称为 NSS（National-Security- Strategy）。本次 NSS 报告主要涉及"美国核心诉求"、"优先事项"、"地区战略" 三部分： ⚫ 在开篇美国核心诉求部分，关键词包括"移民、安全、科技"。（1）移民部分，NSS 提 及"西半球保持适度稳定与良好治理，预防和遏制大规模移民潮涌入美国"；（2）安全 部分 ...

Core Viewpoint - Eaton Corporation plans to spin off its Vehicle and Vehicle Electrification Group into an independent publicly traded company as part of its new 2030 growth strategy, "Lead, Invest, Execute for Growth" [1][3] Group 1: Strategic Focus and Growth - The spin-off aims to enhance Eaton's focus on its core electrical and aerospace businesses while responding to industry trends such as electrification, digitalization, artificial intelligence, and increased infrastructure spending [3] - The company is confident that it can leverage its market advantages to capture growth opportunities and accelerate profit margins, thereby creating long-term value for shareholders [3] - The spin-off is seen as the right timing to allow the Vehicle and Vehicle Electrification Group to continue its leadership as a global supplier, with a concentrated strategic direction and flexible resource allocation [3] Group 2: Business Optimization and Acquisitions - Post-spin-off, Eaton will optimize capital allocation, focusing on high-growth, high-margin businesses with stable profitability [4] - Recent acquisitions, including Ultra PCS and Boyd Thermal, will help Eaton achieve a highly focused business portfolio to better meet strong demand in data centers, utilities, and aerospace markets [4] - The spin-off continues Eaton's successful practices in value creation and business transformation, following the sale of its lighting and hydraulic businesses in 2020 and 2021 [4] Group 3: Vehicle and Vehicle Electrification Group Overview - The Vehicle and Vehicle Electrification Group provides critical engineering solutions for power generation, distribution, and optimization across various vehicle types [6] - This business is a leading supplier in the commercial truck transmission and clutch market in the Americas and has significant advantages in high-voltage electric vehicle (EV) fuses and engine drive technologies globally [6] - The spin-off will enhance the strategic flexibility of the Vehicle and Vehicle Electrification Group, allowing it to effectively seize both short-term and long-term growth opportunities [6] Group 4: Transaction Details - The spin-off is expected to benefit both Eaton and the Vehicle and Vehicle Electrification Group by allowing for a more focused core business and strategic priorities [8] - A more targeted capital allocation strategy will enable flexible investments in profitable organic and inorganic growth opportunities [8] - The transaction is anticipated to be completed in the first quarter of 2027, subject to customary legal and regulatory approvals, and is expected to be tax-free for Eaton shareholders at the federal level [8]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America signals a tactical sell signal despite the "bull-bear indicator" being in an extremely bullish zone (9.2), suggesting investors should rotate rather than retreat, focusing on small-cap stocks and real economy sectors over large-cap and tech stocks [1][14]. Group 1: Market Trends - The current market sentiment indicates that while the selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair typically leads to yield fluctuations, it is believed that the new chair in 2026 will not allow the 30-year Treasury yield to exceed the 5% "safe haven" level due to interventions like quantitative easing (QE) and yield curve control (YCC) [2]. - The bond market is experiencing a severe bear market, with the price of 30-year U.S. Treasuries dropping by 50% and Japanese government bonds (JGB) falling by 45% since the beginning of the 2020s [3]. Group 2: Fund Flows - Despite rising yields, the bond market recorded an inflow of $15.4 billion, while gold saw inflows of $4.9 billion. Conversely, U.S. equities experienced an outflow of $16.8 billion, marking the first outflow in two weeks [4]. - The bear market in bonds has led to a bull market for U.S. tech stocks, European/Japanese bank stocks, and gold in the first half of the decade, while emerging markets (EM) and small-cap stocks are expected to benefit in the latter half [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The core strategy of "buying Detroit and shorting Davos" emphasizes a bullish outlook on U.S. small-cap stocks until 2027, supported by four pillars: global macro trends, extreme capital outflows from Japan, undervaluation of small-cap stocks, and government interventions to control costs [10][11]. - Historical comparisons suggest that the current situation resembles the 1970s, where initially gold thrived, followed by small-cap stocks becoming the best-performing assets [7]. Group 4: Emerging Markets and Capital Flows - Capital is flowing from weak Asian currencies to U.S. and European assets, with South Korean retail investors having invested nearly $100 billion in U.S. stocks since 2019 [16]. - The long-term bull market for international stocks is entering its second year, driven by strong commodity prices and a strengthening of emerging market currencies, which is expected to lower emerging market bond yields and propel emerging market stocks into a new relative bull market [16].

Core Viewpoint - The current market equates "investing in technology" with "buying AI," with light modules being seen as entry tickets to the AI market. However, some fund managers, like Zhang Jiansheng from Bodao Fund, adopt a different approach by focusing on early-stage investments in various hot sectors without chasing extreme trends, achieving significant returns instead [1]. Investment Strategy - Zhang Jiansheng's investment framework emphasizes a "bottom-up, moderately diversified, and balanced growth" approach, with a strong focus on valuation and drawdown control. His cautious risk preference stems from his early career experiences during market volatility [2]. - His investment style features distinct left-side trading characteristics, where he sets target market values for companies and gradually sells once prices reach those levels, avoiding high premium purchases [2]. - The core selection logic revolves around three dimensions: competitive barriers, industry prosperity, and valuation, with a higher weight on competitive barriers outside the TMT sector and a greater emphasis on industry prosperity within TMT [2]. Market Insights - Zhang believes that to earn excess returns from highly valued leading companies, one must possess deep industry knowledge. He prefers to identify "left-side" targets with lower market attention and reasonable valuations, which allows for manageable downside risks [3]. - His portfolio construction strategy involves limiting single industry holdings to no more than 25% and maintaining a balanced allocation across high-end manufacturing, TMT, and consumer sectors, resulting in effective drawdown control [3]. Portfolio Construction - Zhang's focus on valuation enables him to uncover opportunities in less popular market segments, such as his early 2024 positioning in the Hong Kong stock market and the 2025 focus on innovative pharmaceuticals, where valuations had reached attractive historical lows [4]. - He aims to capitalize on valuation recovery in innovative pharmaceuticals, gradually realizing profits as valuations improve, while also recognizing that low valuations do not guarantee price increases [4]. - His investment in the semiconductor storage sector in 2025 was based on a dual assessment of valuation and industry trends, identifying low valuations alongside positive industry signals as a favorable investment combination [5]. 2026 Market Outlook - Zhang holds an optimistic view of the A-share market, supported by three key factors: a significant decrease in risk premiums, ongoing regulatory support for the capital market, and signs of corporate earnings recovery [6]. - In terms of investment focus for 2026, he highlights three areas: AI, particularly in storage and connectivity, with an emphasis on the shift from "technology-first" to "product-first" among leading companies; resource sectors benefiting from "re-industrialization" and "re-globalization," with a particular interest in silver; and valuation recovery opportunities in traditional industries like chemicals and consumer sectors [6][7].

Group 1 - The general manager of Guoxin Guozheng Fund, Chen Zhong, has resigned due to personal reasons, effective January 13, with deputy general manager Zhang Peng taking over the role [1] - The total scale of cross-border ETFs has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1.0008 trillion yuan as of January 13, marking a historical milestone [2] - Five actively managed equity funds have seen gains exceeding 20% in the first five trading days of 2026, largely driven by heavy investments in the pharmaceutical sector, including innovative drugs and medical services [3] Group 2 - Fund manager Zhang Jiansheng from Baodao Fund has identified three major investment directions for 2026, focusing on AI hardware sectors, resource products benefiting from re-industrialization and re-globalization, and valuation recovery opportunities in traditional industries like chemicals and consumer goods [4][5][6][7] Group 3 - The market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.31% while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.56% and 0.82%, respectively, with a total trading volume of 3.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 290.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [8] - Software ETFs led the market with a gain of 6.34%, while energy metals, insurance, and banking sectors faced declines [8][9] - The top-performing ETFs included Software ETF, Big Data ETFs, and Cloud Computing ETFs, while the worst performer was the Electric Grid ETF, which fell by 5.81% [9][11] Group 4 - AI is increasingly being applied in various financial scenarios, including securities research, banking credit, and consumer finance, indicating a broad future potential for financial technology ETFs [12]

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for 2026 is characterized by a cautious optimism, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach to valuation and investment selection, particularly in the context of a recovering market after a prolonged downturn [1][10]. Market Performance - In 2025, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a slow bull market, with public equity funds averaging over a 30% increase, marking it as a significant year for equities [2]. Market Divergence - The market in 2025 was marked by extreme divergence, with sectors like non-ferrous metals and communication equipment seeing over 60% annual gains, while consumer sectors like food and beverage faced negative returns [3]. AI Investment Trends - The capital expenditure in AI, amounting to hundreds of billions, is primarily concentrated among industry leaders, reflecting a level that corresponds to one or two years of net profits for these giants, indicating resilience despite potential delays in returns [4]. Real Estate and Consumption Recovery - A potential recovery in Chinese real estate and consumer sectors is anticipated, with signs that the most challenging phase for cyclical industries may soon pass, leading to valuation recovery opportunities [5]. Investment Opportunities - The investment landscape for 2026 is expected to broaden, with opportunities not only in non-linear growth sectors like AI but also in cyclical industries that may begin to see valuation corrections [6]. Global Trade Dynamics - Despite geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, China's trade surplus exceeded one trillion dollars in the first eleven months of 2025, showcasing the resilience and global competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing [7]. Re-globalization of Chinese Companies - Many leading Chinese companies are experiencing a "re-globalization" trend, with over 30% of their revenues coming from overseas markets, often growing faster than domestic operations [8]. Key Investment Directions for 2026 - The main investment focuses for 2026 include: 1. Non-linear growth in AI, particularly in storage and connectivity sectors, with an emphasis on AI application investments [9]. 2. Resource products and high-end manufacturing benefiting from re-industrialization and re-globalization [9]. 3. Valuation recovery opportunities in traditional industries such as chemicals and consumer goods [9]. Investment Mindset - The investment approach for 2026 will prioritize a "steady" mindset, emphasizing the importance of learning from past market experiences and maintaining a disciplined valuation strategy [10].

Core Viewpoint - The current market equates "investing in technology" with "buying AI," with many investors viewing optical modules as a ticket to the AI market. However, some fund managers, like Zhang Jiansheng from Baodao Fund, adopt a different approach by focusing on growth without chasing extreme hot stocks, achieving significant returns through early-stage investments in various sectors [1][2]. Investment Strategy - Zhang Jiansheng's investment framework emphasizes a "bottom-up, moderately diversified, and balanced growth" approach, with a strong focus on valuation and drawdown control. His cautious risk preference stems from early career experiences during market volatility [2]. - His investment style features distinct left-side trading characteristics, where he sets target market values for companies and gradually sells once stock prices reach predetermined levels, avoiding high premium purchases [2][3]. Market Insights - Zhang believes that leading companies with high market attention and expectations require deep industry knowledge to generate excess returns. He prefers to identify "left-side" targets with lower market attention and reasonable valuations, which helps manage downside risks [3][4]. - His portfolio construction strategy involves limiting single industry holdings to no more than 25%, maintaining a balanced allocation across high-end manufacturing, TMT, and consumer sectors, which aids in drawdown control [3][4]. Valuation Focus - Zhang's emphasis on valuation allows him to uncover opportunities in less popular market segments, such as his early 2024 positioning in the Hong Kong stock market and the 2025 focus on the innovative drug sector, where he aims to profit from valuation recovery [4][5]. - He recognizes that low valuations do not guarantee stock price increases; thus, identifying marginal changes in industry dynamics is crucial. His investment in semiconductor storage reflects a dual assessment of valuation and industry trends [5][6]. 2026 Market Outlook - Zhang maintains an optimistic view of the A-share market, supported by three key factors: a significant decrease in risk premiums, ongoing regulatory support for capital markets, and signs of corporate earnings recovery [6][7]. - In terms of investment focus for 2026, he highlights three areas: AI, particularly in storage and connectivity, resources and high-end manufacturing benefiting from "re-industrialization" and "re-globalization," and valuation recovery opportunities in traditional industries like chemicals and consumer sectors [6][7].

Core Insights - The current market perception equates "investing in technology" with "buying AI," with popular sectors like optical modules seen as entry points into the AI trend [1] - Zhang Jiansheng, a fund manager at Baodao Fund, adopts a unique investment style that focuses on early-stage opportunities rather than chasing hot stocks, achieving significant returns [1][2] - His fund, Baodao Shengyan A, reported over 45% annual returns in 2025 and a cumulative return of over 65% in three years, showcasing strong mid-to-long-term performance [1] Investment Strategy - Zhang's investment framework emphasizes a "bottom-up" approach, moderate industry diversification, and a balanced growth focus, with a strong emphasis on valuation and drawdown control [2][3] - He maintains a cautious risk preference shaped by his early career experiences during market volatility, leading to a left-side trading characteristic where he buys and sells based on predetermined market cap targets [1][2] Stock Selection Criteria - Zhang's stock selection is guided by three main dimensions: competitive barriers, industry prosperity, and valuation, with a particular focus on avoiding high premium valuations in the TMT sector [2] - He prefers to invest in lesser-known stocks with lower valuations and moderate market attention, allowing for a more controlled downside risk [2][4] Portfolio Construction - The portfolio is diversified across high-end manufacturing, TMT, and consumer sectors, with no single industry exceeding 25% of holdings, resulting in better drawdown control compared to peers [3] - Zhang's strategy includes a tiered approach to portfolio construction, where some positions are taken on the left side while waiting for clearer signals on the right side [4] Market Outlook for 2026 - Zhang holds an optimistic view on the A-share market, supported by three key factors: a significant decrease in risk premiums, ongoing regulatory support for capital markets, and signs of corporate earnings recovery [5] - Investment focus areas for 2026 include AI, particularly in storage and connectivity sectors, as well as traditional industries like chemicals and consumer sectors where valuation recovery opportunities exist [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Jian Sheng's investment philosophy emphasizes a low-risk approach, focusing on absolute returns rather than high-risk growth stocks, which has led to impressive performance metrics, including a 45.97% return in 2025 and a 65.38% return over the past three years [1]. Group 1: Investment Characteristics - The investment strategy is characterized by a top-down approach with a concentrated selection of stocks, typically holding 1-2 stocks per industry, resulting in low turnover rates [2]. - The portfolio is industry-balanced, primarily focusing on high-end manufacturing, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and consumer sectors, without betting on specific sub-sectors [3]. - A moderately contrarian style is adopted, with an emphasis on valuation and avoiding pure beta returns, leading to early buying and selling of growth stocks compared to peers [3][11]. Group 2: Sector Insights - In the AI industry chain, there is a preference for storage and connectivity segments, with increased focus on AI application investments starting in 2026 [3][20]. - The consumer sector faces challenges with insufficient overall consumption, leading to investments in companies adapting to changes in consumption channels [4]. - In the Hong Kong innovative drug sector, the phase of valuation recovery has ended, with current investments concentrated in companies with overseas commercialization channels [5][23]. - The overall valuation in the metals sector, excluding gold, remains low, and the anticipated interest rate cuts in the US are favorable for commodities [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The outlook for the bull market is optimistic, with the belief that it is entering its second half, necessitating a more stable mindset and a balanced portfolio approach [6][19]. - The investment opportunities for 2026 are expected to diversify beyond non-linear growth sectors like AI and resources, with a focus on cyclical industries experiencing valuation recovery [19]. - The "re-globalization" narrative is seen as beneficial for Chinese companies, enhancing their performance and long-term growth potential, which may lead to a revaluation of core Chinese assets, including those in the Hong Kong market [18][19]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Adjustments - The investment approach will involve a slower trading pace, with a more cautious evaluation of opportunity costs, while maintaining a left-side investment framework [28]. - Emphasis will be placed on large-cap stocks due to the increasing influence of passive and quantitative funds in the market [29]. - The strategy will focus on companies with price elasticity and those that can create demand through supply, which may become advantageous in the current bull market environment [29].