农产品日报（2025 年 9 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米近月合约继续减仓下行，1 月合约持仓增加，资金由 11 月向 1 月转移。 | 震荡下行 | | | 阿根廷下调农产品出口关税，农产品板块承压下行，油粕领跌、玉米跟跌，玉米 | | | | 价格区间随之下移。近期玉米加权合约增仓下行，新粮上市的丰收压力继续笼罩 | | | | 市场。周末黑龙江深加工玉米厂家玉米收购价格略显下滑，反映出市场对新季玉 | | | | 米价格的担忧情绪，出价厂家较上周有所增多，新粮上市量也将有所增加。受前 | | | | 期持续降雨影响，周末山东深受前期持续降雨影响，山加工企业门前到货量明显 | | | | 减少，玉米收割进度放缓，加上企业库存维持低位，周末部分企业玉米价格出现 | | | | 反弹。销区市场玉米价格稳定运行。港口提货速度一般，新粮持续上市，但往西 | | | | 南运输不畅，主要粮源是新疆及东北地区，部分饲料厂使用小麦较多，玉米现货 | | | | 较少。技术上，玉米 11 月合约下探新低，近月合约贴水现货， ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 王一博 | | 从业资格证号： | F3083334 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0018596 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578169 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月23日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：日内豆油期价大幅下挫，主要原因在于阿根廷政府宣布，在 10月31日前取消所有大豆、豆粕、豆油的出口税，市场认为榨利回 升后我国 ...

| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月24日 | | | | 十六按 | Z0019938 | | 田 | | | | | | | | | 9月22日 | 9月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8620 | 8620 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | Y2601 | 8366 | 8328 | 38 | 0.46% | | 基差 | Y2601 | 254 | 292 | -38 | -13.01% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏1月 | 01+220 | 01+210 | 10 | ﺗ | | 仓单 | | 25644 | 25644 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | 9月22日 | 9月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 9270 | 9300 | -30 | -0.32% | | 期价 | P2601 | 9360 | 9316 | 44 | 0.47% ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月23日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | 女女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 短期关注国产大豆收购量和收购价格的指引。今年大豆新作总体供应预期向好。国内大豆和进口大豆价差反 弹,进口大豆价格疲软,由于阿根廷临时取消农产品出口税,以便于增加美元收入,缓解比索的贬值压力,因 此阿根廷豆类品种出口短期会有明显的增量。即使中国不采购美国大豆，叠加中国大豆还有庞大的库存，也容 易使得明年一季度中国大豆 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 9 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，玉米近月合约减仓下行，1 月合约持仓增加，资金由 11 月向 1 月转移。受 | | | | 近月合约下跌拖累，远期合约报价下行，当日玉米加权合约增仓下行，新粮上市 | | | | 的丰收压力继续笼罩市场。周末黑龙江深加工玉米厂家玉米收购价格略显下滑， | | | | 反映出市场对新季玉米价格的担忧情绪，出价厂家较上周有所增多，新粮上市量 | | | 玉米 | 也将有所增加。受前期持续降雨影响，周末山东深受前期持续降雨影响，山加工 | 震荡下行 | | | 企业门前到货量明显减少，玉米收割进度放缓，加上企业库存维持低位，周末部 | | | | 分企业玉米价格出现反弹。销区市场玉米价格稳定运行。港口提货速度一般，新 | | | | 粮持续上市，但往西南运输不畅，主要粮源是新疆及东北地区，部分饲料厂使用 | | | | 小麦较多，玉米现货较少。技术上，玉米 11 月合约下探新低，近月合约贴水现 | | | | 货，期货下跌后情绪转空，中期弱势预期不变。 周一，CBOT ...

板块低位运行，等待新的驱动 农产品日报 | 2025-09-23 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13610元/吨，较前一日变动-110元/吨，幅度-0.80%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15146元/吨，较前一日变动-52元/吨，现货基差CF01+1536，较前一日变动+58；3128B棉全国均价15224元/吨， 较前一日变动-59元/吨，现货基差CF01+1614，较前一日变动+51。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，9月12日至9月18日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验2.68吨，均为陆 地棉，84.2%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求；累计分级检验12.10万吨，89.1%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。根据美 国商业部数据显示，2025年7月美国的服装及服装配饰零售额(季调)为269.08亿美元，同比增加6.44%（去年同期向 下调整后为252.79亿美元），环比增加1.43%（上月向上调整后为265.29亿美元）。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价偏弱震荡。国际方面，9月USDA报告调增全球棉花产量和消费量，期初库存和期末库存继续调减， 全球库存创近四年低 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil has no upward or downward drivers, and the inventory pressure needs to be released [2][4]. - For soybean oil, Argentina has cancelled the export tax on soybeans, leading to a weak and volatile trend in US soybeans [2][4]. - Due to the US soybean's lower - than - expected good - to - excellent rate, soybean meal may rebound [2][13]. - Affected by the sentiment in the soybean market, soybean No.1 is oscillating at a low level [2][13]. - Attention should be paid to the listing of new corn [2][16]. - Monitor the impact of typhoon "Huajiaisha" on sugarcane areas [2][21]. - The pressure of new cotton listing is weighing on the futures price [2][26]. - The peak season for eggs is coming to an end [2][32]. - It is the stage of concentrated release of contradictions in the pig market before the festival [2][34]. - Peanut prices have declined [2][39]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Fundamental Tracking - Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,360 yuan/ton with a 0.47% increase, and the night - time closing price was 9,152 yuan/ton with a 2.22% - 2.32% decrease. Its trading volume was 561,707 lots, an increase of 7,050 lots, and the open interest was 403,883 lots, a decrease of 7,931 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 90 yuan/ton [5]. - Soybean oil's daytime closing price was 8,366 yuan/ton with a 0.46% increase, and the night - time closing price was 8,172 yuan/ton. Its trading volume was 290,066 lots, a decrease of 41,585 lots, and the open interest was 569,350 lots, a decrease of 2,076 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,710 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 344 yuan/ton [5]. Macro and Industry News - From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 6.57% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 7.89% month - on - month [6]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from September 1 - 20, 2025, showed different trends according to different institutions' data. ITS data indicated an increase compared to the same period last month, AmSpec showed an 8.3% increase, while SGS predicted a 16.1% decrease [7][8][9]. - As of September 21, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%, and the harvest rate was 9%, lower than the expected 12% [9]. - Argentina has temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the total export reaches 7 billion US dollars [10]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1 [12]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 Fundamental Tracking - DCE soybean No.1 2511's daytime closing price was 3,912 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase, and the night - time closing price was 3,884 yuan/ton with a 0.69% decrease. DCE soybean meal 2601's daytime closing price was 3,034 yuan/ton with a 1.00% increase, and the night - time closing price was 2,983 yuan/ton with a 1.55% decrease [13]. Macro and Industry News - On September 22, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, hitting a six - week low due to insufficient Chinese purchases and Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on grains [13][15]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0 [15]. Corn Fundamental Tracking - The daytime closing price of C2511 was 2,147 yuan/ton with a 1.11% decrease, and the night - time closing price was 2,151 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase. The daytime closing price of C2601 was 2,136 yuan/ton with a 1.16% decrease, and the night - time closing price was 2,137 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase [16]. Macro and Industry News - The northern corn collection price at ports decreased by 20 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the price in Guangdong Shekou remained flat. The purchase price of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast and North China has declined [17]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of corn is 0 [20]. Sugar Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price was 15.85 cents/pound, a year - on - year decrease of 0.33 cents/pound. The mainstream spot price was 5,850 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,452 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 9 yuan/ton [21]. Macro and Industry News - Pay attention to the impact of typhoon "Huajiaisha" on sugarcane production areas. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year, but its exports in August and July decreased by 5% year - on - year. Conab has lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons [21]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [24]. Cotton Fundamental Tracking - The daytime closing price of CF2601 was 13,610 yuan/ton with a 0.80% decrease, and the night - time closing price was 13,575 yuan/ton with a 0.26% - 0.05% decrease. The daytime closing price of CY2511 was 19,675 yuan/ton with a 0.30% decrease [26]. Macro and Industry News - The spot trading of cotton was sluggish, and the purchase price of seed cotton was slightly weak. The sentiment in the cotton yarn market has weakened, and the sales of cotton grey cloth have partially declined [27]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [29]. Eggs Fundamental Tracking - The price of eggs 2510 was 2,982 yuan/500 kg, a 1.84% decrease, and the price of eggs 2601 was 3,366 yuan/500 kg, a 1.67% decrease [32]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [32]. Pigs Fundamental Tracking - The Henan spot price was 12,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The futures prices of pigs 2511, 2601, and 2603 all decreased year - on - year [35]. Market Logic - Group farms have significantly reduced supply, but the pig weight has increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs has weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The probability of concentrated pressure release in the spot market before the double festivals has increased, and the spot price center will further decline [37]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of pigs is - 1 [36]. Peanuts Fundamental Tracking - The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton. The trading volume and open interest of peanut futures decreased [39]. Spot Market Focus - In most peanut - producing areas, the supply has slightly increased due to improved weather, but the remaining spring peanuts are limited. The harvest of wheat - stubble peanuts has been postponed due to rain [40]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [42].

农产品早报 2025-09-23 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周一美豆继续下跌，阿根廷宣布暂时取消出口税，利空国际豆系价格。周一国内豆粕现货基差稳定，国 内豆粕成交一般，提货处于高位。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内港口大豆库存大幅下降 70 万吨，因到港量 下滑，同比增 65 万吨，豆粕库存小幅上升 9 万吨，同比下降 21 万吨，上周国内压榨大豆 243 万吨，本 周预计压榨 239 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨量正常，8 月因干旱大豆优良率下滑，但 USDA 仅下调 0.1 蒲式耳/英亩单产，且 收割面积上调 20 万英亩。巴西方面，升贴水近期企稳。总体来看，进口大豆成本受到美豆低估值、中 美贸易关系 ...

农产品早报 2025-09-22 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 【行情资讯】 周五美豆高点回落逾 2%，因中美元首通话公告未明确涉及大豆，引发需求担忧。周末国内豆粕现货涨 跌互现，幅度 10-20 元/吨。上周国内豆粕成交一般，提货处于高位，下游库存天数上升 0.21 天至 9.42 天，据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 243 万吨，本周预计压榨 239 万吨。 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨量正常，8 月因干旱大豆优良率下滑，但 USDA 仅下调 0.1 蒲式耳/英亩单产，且 收割面积上调 20 万英亩。巴西方面，升贴水近期开始回落。总体来看，进口大豆成本受到美豆低估值、 中美贸易关系及巴西种植季节 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [3][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The late Fuji bag - removing is generally postponed, and the high - quality fruit supply may be scarce. The inventory apple sales have slowed down. The short - term price is expected to remain stable due to low inventory levels [2][3] - Red dates: The market is debating the new - season reduction and inventory. The double - festival stocking is less than expected. The new - season production is expected to decrease, but there is still high inventory pressure. The price trend depends on the final production and stocking demand [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract was 8281 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged; the price of 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose slightly. The late Fuji bag - removing is postponed, and the high - quality fruit supply may be short. The inventory apple sales have slowed down. The short - term price is expected to be stable with low inventory support [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. With low inventory, the price has bottom support. The high price of new - season high - quality apples affects the inventory apple sales, and the short - term price is expected to be stable [3] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red dates 2601 contract was 10620 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton (-1.80%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged [4] Market Analysis - The red dates futures price fell. The market is arguing about the new - season reduction and inventory. The double - festival stocking is less than expected. The new - season production is expected to decrease, but the high inventory pressure persists. The price trend depends on the final production and stocking demand [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The futures price may rise due to capital sentiment when the production reduction cannot be falsified. However, if the reduction is less than expected, the price may turn weak under high - inventory pressure [8]