Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight US soybeans closed slightly higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate. The soybean No.1 spot is gradually entering the holiday mode, and the futures price will fluctuate [2][4]. - The callback range of corn futures prices is limited [2][7]. - The sugar futures prices will be sorted in a narrow range [2][10]. - The cotton futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend before the holiday [2][15]. - The egg futures prices will be adjusted in a volatile manner [2][21]. - The peak season for live pigs is not prosperous, and the release of the "backlog" has begun [2][25]. - The peanut futures prices will fluctuate [2][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of DCE soybean No.1 2605 and DCE soybean meal 2605 in the day - session were 4378 yuan/ton (-12, -0.27%) and 2735 yuan/ton (+5, +0.18%) respectively. The overnight CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1114.75 cents/bushel (+2.5, +0.22%). The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had different changes [4]. - **News**: The US President said that China will increase soybean purchases, and the US Department of Agriculture will release the January supply - demand report on February 10. Analysts predict the US and global soybean ending stocks. The Brazilian soybean exports in January decreased compared with December but increased compared with last January. The Argentine soybean crop good - to - excellent rate decreased compared with a week ago but was higher than the same period last year [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0 [6]. 2. Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of C2603 and C2605 were 2274 yuan/ton (+0.31%) and 2279 yuan/ton (+0.22%) respectively. The trading volume and positions of different contracts had different changes. The basis of the main 03 contract was 61 yuan/ton, and the 03 - 05 inter - period spread was - 5 yuan/ton [7]. - **News**: The northern corn bulk shipping and containerized shipping prices in ports had different changes. The prices of imported sorghum and barley from different origins and time periods were also provided [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [9]. 3. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 14.11 cents/pound (-0.16), the mainstream spot price was 5300 yuan/ton (+10), and the futures main - contract price was 5228 yuan/ton (+4). The 15 - spread was 46 yuan/ton (+31), and the 59 - spread was - 11 yuan/ton (-8) [10]. - **News**: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the Indian sugar production increased year - on - year, the Brazilian sugar exports decreased year - on - year, and the Chinese sugar imports increased in December. The CAOC predicted China's sugar production, consumption, and imports. The ISO predicted the global sugar supply surplus. The production data of Brazil, India, and Thailand were also provided [10][11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [13]. 4. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of CF2605 and CY2605 were 14580 yuan/ton (-0.21%) and 20405 yuan/ton (-0.20%) respectively. The trading volume and positions of different contracts had different changes. The spot prices of cotton in different regions also had different changes [16]. - **News**: The cotton spot basis was generally stable. The cotton yarn quotation was stable, and the pre - holiday trading atmosphere was light. The ICE cotton futures continued to fall due to the rapid increase in warehouse receipts [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 1 [18]. 5. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of egg2603 and egg2604 were 2904 yuan/500kg (-0.34%) and 3165 yuan/500kg (+0.32%) respectively. The 3 - 4 spread was - 261 yuan/500kg, and the 4 - 9 spread was - 714 yuan/500kg. The spot prices of eggs in different regions and the prices of related feed and livestock had different changes [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [23]. 6. Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices of live pigs in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 12430 yuan/ton (-450), 11650 yuan/ton (0), and 11860 yuan/ton (-200) respectively. The closing prices of different futures contracts also decreased year - on - year. The trading volume and positions of different contracts decreased. The basis and inter - period spreads of different contracts also had different changes [26]. - **News**: Some companies registered warehouse receipts for March contracts [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is - 2 [28]. 7. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices of peanuts in different regions were stable. The closing prices of PK603 and PK605 were 8054 yuan/ton (+0.07%) and 7918 yuan/ton (-0.03%) respectively. The trading volume and positions of different contracts had different changes. The basis of different varieties and the 03 - 05 inter - period spread were also provided [30]. - **News**: The peanut spot prices in different regions were stable, and the pre - holiday trading was basically ending in some areas [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [32].

1. Reported Industry and Date - The report focuses on the agricultural product industry, dated February 6, 2026 [1] 2. Core Views 2.1. Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal market is weaker than the overseas market this week. The 05 contract is priced by imported Brazilian soybeans, and the pressure of its bumper harvest is approaching. The domestic market has limited bullish factors, and the rebound is weak. It is recommended to gradually reduce positions for the Spring Festival holiday [9] 2.2. Eggs - This week, egg spot prices have reached a peak and fallen. As the Spring Festival approaches, spot prices are in a seasonal decline. Futures prices are also weak. In the long - term, it is still a game about the degree of inventory reduction. It is recommended to roll and go long at low levels for far - month contracts [48] 2.3. Sugar - The raw sugar index fluctuates around the 14 - cent mark. Technically, the 10 - day and 10 - week moving averages suppress price rebounds. In the domestic market, the Zhengzhou sugar index first falls and then rises, with the 60 - day moving average and the weekly Bollinger middle - band suppressing prices. The market is currently treated as oscillating weakly [68][69] 2.4. Cotton - The overseas cotton market maintains a weak pattern, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates and adjusts. The USDA monthly report is relatively bullish. The domestic market should pay attention to the planting intentions for the 2026/27 season and the actual reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area after the festival [90] 2.5. Corn - The spot price of corn is narrowly weak. The supply may increase in the first half of February and decrease in the second half due to the holiday. Demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises is expected to pick up after the festival. The overall supply - demand relationship may be tight, and the price is expected to be strong [156] 2.6. Hogs - The spot price of hogs continues to fall this week. In the long - term, the supply of hogs is expected to increase slightly. Before the festival, both supply and demand will increase, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [202] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Soybean Meal 3.1.1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot prices of coastal soybean meal are slightly weaker than a week ago. Overseas futures of US soybeans are strong this week, mainly due to the news of potential additional Chinese purchases. The domestic market is weaker, and it is recommended to reduce positions for the festival [7][8][9] 3.1.2. Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: The 2025/26 USDA report shows that US soybean production and end - of - season inventory increase, and the supply - demand relationship turns looser. In South America, Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and Argentina's weather is expected to improve. The report is generally bearish [11] - **US Soybean Exports**: As of January 29, the weekly shipment volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season increases year - on - year, but the net sales volume decreases. Future purchases by China need to be monitored [15] - **Domestic Soybean Imports and Pressing**: Pressing profits are mostly negative. The actual pressing volume and operating rate increase slightly this week but are expected to decline in the near future. The import volume of soybeans shows seasonal changes, and the port inventory will gradually decline [27][29] - **Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increases this week. Transactions are active in January due to pre - festival stocking and concerns about future supply [36] - **Basis and Inter - month Spreads**: The 05 - contract basis of soybean meal narrows slightly, and the 3 - 5 spread also narrows. Both are expected to oscillate in the short term [40][41] - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of February 5, 2026, the number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts is at a relatively high level in the same period of history [43] 3.2. Eggs 3.2.1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Egg spot prices fall rapidly this week. Futures prices are also weak. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to the degree of inventory reduction, and it is recommended to go long at low levels for far - month contracts [48] 3.2.2. Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: The inventory of laying hens is at a high level in the same period of history, and the replenishment momentum slows down, which may reduce the medium - term inventory pressure [49] - **Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit**: Egg spot prices fall, feed costs remain stable, and breeding profits decline [56] - **Culled Hens**: The culling volume is stable with a slight decline, the culling age is slightly delayed, and the price is at a relatively low level in the same period of history [58] - **Demand, Inventory, and Hog Prices**: Egg sales are at a relatively high level in the same period of history, inventory is at a moderately high level, and hog prices are at a relatively low level in the same period of history [63] 3.3. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The raw sugar index fluctuates around 14 cents, and the Zhengzhou sugar index first falls and then rises, with technical resistance [68][69] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Shandong change little. The basis narrows, and the 5 - 9 spread strengthens [71][75] - **Brazilian Sugar Production**: In the second half of December 2025, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreases year - on - year, and the ethanol production increases [77] - **Import Profit and Exchange Rate**: The import processing profit of raw sugar increases slightly. The Brazilian real and Thai baht depreciate against the US dollar [83][85] 3.4. Cotton 3.4.1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Overseas cotton markets are weak, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates. The USDA report is bullish, and domestic policies emphasize the stability of the cotton industry. The market is affected by macro - factors and is expected to oscillate narrowly before the festival [88][90] 3.4.2. Core Points - **Main Cotton - producing Countries**: The USDA January report shows that the global cotton supply - demand relationship improves slightly, with a decrease in ending inventory and a decline in the inventory - to - sales ratio [91] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of January 29, the net signing and shipment of US cotton in the 2025/2026 season show different trends, and the cumulative signing and shipment volumes are different from the same period last year [96] - **Textile Enterprises**: The inventory and load indexes of textile enterprises change slightly, with a general downward trend in load [98] - **Basis and Inter - month Spreads**: The spot basis of cotton increases, and the 5 - 9 spread decreases [110] - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: Non - commercial net positions of cotton decrease, and the number of domestic registered warehouse receipts increases [113] 3.5. Corn 3.5.1. Market Review - Corn spot prices are narrowly weak. Futures prices decline slightly. Different regions have different price trends [116] 3.5.2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress accelerates this week, and the port inventory increases [118][119] - **Domestic Substitutes**: Wheat prices first rise and then stabilize, with a price difference from corn [122] - **Imported Substitute Grains**: The import volume of grains in 2025 shows different changes. The import profit of Brazilian corn is high, and the import volume may increase in the future [124][136] - **Feed Demand**: The total output of industrial feed in 2025 increases. The inventory of feed enterprises increases slightly, and the feed demand is expected to continue to grow slightly [138][141] - **Deep - processing Demand**: The operating rate and output of the starch industry decline, and the processing profit of starch enterprises is mostly negative. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increases [145][146] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The 2025/26 production of Chinese corn is expected to increase, and the consumption is also expected to rise. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [153] 3.5.3. Future Outlook and Strategy - The supply - demand relationship of corn is expected to be tight, with spot prices expected to be strong and futures prices expected to rebound after a decline. It is recommended that spot enterprises replenish inventory on a rolling basis, and futures investors reduce long positions moderately and buy on dips [156][157] 3.6. Hogs 3.6.1. Market Review - Hog spot prices continue to fall, and futures prices oscillate slightly higher. The supply from large - scale farms increases, and the demand from slaughterhouses recovers slightly [159][160] 3.6.2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - term Supply**: The price of binary sows is stable. The inventory of breeding sows shows different trends according to different data sources, and the future supply of hogs is expected to change accordingly [163][164] - **Medium - term Supply**: The price of piglets is stable with a slight decline. The inventory of piglets shows different growth trends in different periods, which affects the future supply of hogs [175][176] - **Short - term Supply**: The inventory of large hogs decreases, and the proportion of large hogs in stock increases due to factors such as pre - festival demand and second - round fattening. The utilization rate of fattening pens decreases [178][179][180] - **Current Supply**: The actual and planned slaughter volumes of hogs in January and February change, and the average slaughter weight decreases [186][188] - **Import Supply**: The import volume of pork in 2025 decreases year - on - year [195] - **Second - round Fattening Demand**: The enthusiasm for second - round fattening weakens at the end of January, and the cost decreases [197] - **Slaughter Demand**: The operating rate of slaughterhouses increases, and the slaughter volume in 2025 increases significantly [201] 3.6.3. Future Outlook - Before the festival, the supply and demand of hogs both increase, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and futures prices are also expected to be weak. It is recommended that futures investors short on rallies, and breeding enterprises increase hedging and reduce short positions with slaughter [202][204]

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，玉米近月 2603 合约持仓下降，3 月减仓 6 万、5 月增仓 3 万，资金离场， | | | | 价格波动下降。从东北市场来看，市场购销活跃度降低。深加工补货接近尾声， | | | | 外销较为有限，烘干塔也基本放假停收。目前价格暂维持稳中略偏弱的状态。山 | | | | 东、河北深加工企业价格基本维持稳定，价格有涨有跌，变动幅度有限，主力价 | | | 玉米 | 格维持稳定。随着春节临近，市场基层购销购销相对平稳，贸易商存货意愿增强， | 震荡偏弱 | | | 市场价格整体有所提升。河南个别地区受深加工企业价格下跌影响，基层价格窄 | | | | 幅下调。销区市场玉米价格平稳运行。节前下游采购活动放缓，港口贸易商报价 | | | | 基本稳定，市场暂无较大波动。春节假期前，价格将维持窄幅震荡的格局，出现 | | | | 大幅波动的可能性较小。技术上看，春节假期临近，期货市场资金离场期价波动 | | | | 性下降，短线参与为主。 | | | | 周四，CBOT 大豆延续涨势，受大豆乐观需求提振。美国农业 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the documents. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Fundamental factors such as decreasing production, increasing exports, and expected inventory decline to around 2.9 million tons will support the crude palm oil futures to effectively stand above 4,200 ringgit. The Dalian palm oil futures market will maintain a volatile rebound trend, mainly fluctuating around 9,200 yuan in the short term. After effective consolidation and standing above 9,100 yuan, there is a chance for the futures to follow and gradually launch an upward market [1]. - Soybean oil: The new guidance on the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit may increase the industrial use of US soybean oil, but this positive factor has been digested by the market. With the continuous listing of Brazilian soybeans, CBOT soybeans may decline. In the domestic market, Brazilian soybeans are being harvested and listed, and the market's price - holding mentality is weak. The spot soybean oil will continue to fluctuate with the market, and the basis quote will remain stable [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the external market and the inflow of long - position funds, the rapeseed oil futures price once reached 9,300 yuan. However, as the Spring Festival stocking ends, the terminal demand weakens, and the willingness of funds to chase the rise is insufficient. The spot market transactions are mainly for rigid demand, and the far - month basis quote has significantly declined [1]. Apples - In the production areas, the stocking atmosphere of late - maturing Fuji apples in Gansu and Liaoning is good, and the de - stocking progress of the national apple inventory has accelerated. In the sales areas, the arrival volume of apples in Guangdong wholesale markets has increased significantly, but there is pressure on the daily digestion of the arrival volume. The market sentiment has warmed up, and the futures price has increased with positions. Attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking situation [4][8]. Red Dates - The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in the 25/26 production season of red dates still exists. Traders are cautious in stocking, and downstream buyers purchase on demand. With the approaching suspension of logistics, the arrival volume in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has decreased recently. The futures are still in the low - valuation range, and the registration volume of new - season red date futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts is relatively small. The social inventory utilization rate is high, and the short - term de - stocking pressure is difficult to relieve. It is expected that the red date price will maintain a volatile bottom - building trend [10]. Pigs - The spot price continues to weaken, and the market's willingness to sell has also increased. The average daily slaughter volume in February will remain high. The slaughter profit is limited, and it is the traditional stocking peak before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival stocking intensity. The current fundamental positive factors are limited, and the game will increase. The spot price may have support later. The positive sentiment in the futures market yesterday was mainly due to the policy of strengthening the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity in the No. 1 Central Document, but the current loose pattern still exists. It is expected that the market will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [11]. Meal - The US soybeans maintain a range - oscillating pattern with limited phased drivers. The shipping from Brazil has accelerated, and the weather speculation in Argentina has decreased. The 3 - 5 spread has narrowed. The pre - festival stocking sentiment in the market is expected to gradually weaken, and the futures lack further drivers. Attention should be paid to the left - hand side changes [13]. Corn - In the Northeast, the grain sales have increased compared with the previous period, but the enterprises' replenishment is approaching the end, and the procurement demand is average, with prices running steadily and weakly. In North China, the number of arriving vehicles continues to increase slightly but is unevenly distributed in different regions, with prices rising and falling. On the demand side, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly but is still at a relatively low level, with a slight willingness to replenish inventory; feed enterprises have basically completed pre - festival stocking and mainly purchase on demand. In the short term, corn stocking is approaching the end, and the trading will gradually weaken, which will put pressure on prices. However, the relatively fast grain sales, the farmers' price - holding attitude, and the low inventory of the middle and lower reaches support the prices, and the overall price will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the subsequent grain sales rhythm and policy release intensity [15]. Sugar - The ICE raw sugar futures have declined, and the market is concerned about supply - related news. Traders are closely watching the news from the annual Dubai Sugar Conference. It is expected that due to the decline in production, the global sugar supply may be more balanced in the 2026/27 season. Internationally, Brazil is approaching the end of the crushing season, which is in line with the previous estimates of institutions, and has less impact on the market. India's sugarcane crushing progress in the 2025/26 season has accelerated significantly, with the cumulative sugar production increasing by more than 20% year - on - year as of mid - January. Thailand's cumulative sugar production has decreased by about 12% year - on - year due to the white leaf disease and the delayed start of crushing, and the sugar production may have a slight downward adjustment space. It is expected that the raw sugar will maintain a low - level oscillation between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, the Spring Festival stocking is approaching the end, and the market news is dull. The current price is at the bottom - grinding stage. Although there is no positive driver in the market, the negative factors have been gradually realized. In the absence of new negative factors, the price decline is blocked. It is expected that the futures will more follow the overall macro - sentiment fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around the previous high of 5,300 [19][20]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures have slightly declined. The registration of warehouse receipts for delivery has put pressure on the near - month contracts, and traders are waiting for the weekly export sales report from the US Department of Agriculture. The US cotton listing inspection is approaching the end, and the inspection progress has slightly accelerated but is still slower than the same period last year. The weekly deliverable ratio has continued to decline slightly. The USDA export sales have significantly declined, but the shipping has entered the peak period. In the industry, the cotton price is still under pressure but also has support. The market buying power is strong, and the cotton consumption is not weak, so the support below the cotton price is still strong. On the demand side, the pre - festival inventory replenishment of textile enterprises has basically ended, the operating rate has slightly declined, and the rigid - demand procurement is cautious, with only a small amount of sporadic replenishment. The stocking rhythm of traders has slowed down, and the trading atmosphere has cooled down. However, the high commercial inventory has not loosened the spot. In the short term, the cotton price may oscillate in a wide range, and attention should be paid to the support strength around 14,500 [21]. Eggs - In February, the number of newly - laid hens is expected to continue to decrease due to the low - level replenishment in the previous period. The number of old - hen slaughters will also slightly decrease. The inventory of laying hens in production will continue to decline. However, due to the suspension of trading during the Spring Festival, a large amount of inventory may accumulate in the market, and the market will face great pressure to sell goods after the festival. On the demand side, the Spring Festival stocking has basically ended, and the demand has rapidly weakened, especially in the southern market. The oversupply and the enhanced market risk - control awareness have led to an increase in the inventory in the production and circulation links. It is expected that the main contract will maintain a weak - oscillating trend in the range [22][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8,510 yuan, up 0.59% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 is 8,086 yuan, down 0.67%. The basis is - 4, down 1.07%. The 05 - 09 spread is 56, up from 10 [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,100 yuan, down 0.44%. The futures price of P2605 is 9,094 yuan, down 0.48%. The basis is 2, down 66.67%. The 05 - 09 spread is - 2, down 3.70% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 10,044 yuan, up 0.20%. The futures price of OI605 is 9,243 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis is 801, down 0.99%. The 05 - 09 spread is - 15, down 18.75% [1]. Apples - The futures price of the main contract Apple 2605 is 9,594 yuan, up 1.15%. The price of Apple 2610 is 8,310 yuan, up 0.65%. The basis is - 1394, down 8.48%. The 5 - 10 spread is 1284, up 4.48%. The arrival volume in several wholesale markets has increased, and the national cold - storage inventory is 6.5405 million tons, down 4.21% [4]. Red Dates - The futures price of the main contract Red Dates 2605 is 8,905 yuan, down 0.17%. The price of Red Dates 2607 is 8,940 yuan, down 0.22%. The price of Red Dates 2609 is 9,095 yuan, down 0.22%. The 5 - 7 spread is - 35, up 12.50%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 190, up 2.56%. The warehouse receipts and effective forecasts total 3,829, down 0.18% [10]. Pigs - The futures price of the main contract Pig 2605 is 11,735 yuan, up 1.16%. The price of Pig 2603 is 11,150 yuan, down 0.09%. The 3 - 5 spread is - 585, down 32.95%. The main - contract position is 145,975 hands, up 58.25%. The warehouse receipts are 647, up 547.00%. The spot prices in different regions have different degrees of decline [11]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3,100 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2605 is 2,723 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis is 377, up 1.07%. The warehouse receipts are 36,228, up 8.4% [13]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,520 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2605 is 2,247 yuan, down 0.09%. The basis is 273, up 0.74%. The warehouse receipts are 0 [13]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of Corn 2603 is 2,263 yuan, down 0.18%. The basis is 62, up 6.90%. The 3 - 7 spread is - 20, down 33.33%. The import profit is 223 yuan, down 1.84%. The position is 1,825,020 hands, down 2.85%. The warehouse receipts are 53,570, down 2.39% [15]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2603 is 2,510 yuan, up 0.04%. The basis is 242, up 0.83%. The 3 - 7 spread is - 71, down 4.41%. The starch - corn 03 spread is 247, up 2.07%. The position is 299,151 hands, up 0.37%. The warehouse receipts are 11,161, unchanged [15]. Sugar - The futures price of Sugar 2605 is 5,210 yuan, up 0.83%. The price of Sugar 2609 is 5,214 yuan, up 0.71%. The ICE raw sugar price is 14.63 cents per pound, up 2.59%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 4, up 60.00%. The main - contract position is 451,761 hands, up 0.06%. The warehouse receipts are 14,216, unchanged. The effective forecasts are 503, up 2.86% [19]. Cotton - The futures price of Cotton 2605 is 14,680 yuan, up 0.20%. The price of Cotton 2609 is 14,805 yuan, up 0.17%. The ICE cotton price is 62.30 cents per pound, down 0.80%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 125, up 3.85%. The main - contract position is 716,331 hands, down 0.22%. The warehouse receipts are 10,438, up 0.37%. The effective forecasts are 1,369, down 0.22% [21]. Eggs - The futures price of Egg 03 is 2,945 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.27%. The price of Egg 04 is 3,183 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.47%. The egg - producing area price is 3.57 yuan per catty, down 2.49%. The basis is - 83, down 11.71%. The 3 - 4 spread is - 238, up 2.86% [22].

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 0.79%, reaching 29.3490 points [1] - CBOT corn futures rose by 0.12%, priced at $4.29 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures fell by 0.43%, priced at $5.2675 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures increased by 2.46%, priced at $10.92 per bushel [1]

农产品日报 | 2026-02-04 美豆承压运行，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2727元/吨，较前日变动-23元/吨，幅度-0.84%；菜粕2605合约2249元/吨，较前 日变动-27元/吨，幅度-1.19%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3170元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差 M05+443，较前日变动+33；江苏地区豆粕现货3020元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差M05+293，较前日变动 +3；广东地区豆粕现货价格3020元/吨，较前日变动跌-20元/吨，现货基差M05+293，较前日变动+3。福建地区菜 粕现货价格2440元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差RM05+191，较前日变动-3。 近期市场资讯，2月2日，美国农业部发布的月度油籽压榨报告显示，美国2025年12月大豆压榨量为690万短吨，11 月为662万短吨；12月毛豆油产量为26.6亿磅，环比增加5%；豆粕产量为510.7万短吨，11月产量为488万短吨。美 国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2026年1月29日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为131.1万吨，市 ...

美国玉米主产州未来6-10日83.33%地区有较高的把握认为气温将高于正常水平，72%地区有较高的把握 认为降水量将高于正常水平。 据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至1月31日，巴西一茬玉米播种率为95.2%，上周为 93.6%，去年同期为95%，五年均值为93.9%；巴西一茬玉米收割率为8.6%，上周为7.4%，去年同期为 10.5%，五年均值为12.3%。巴西二茬玉米播种率为12%，上周为5.9%，去年同期为5.3%，五年均值为 14%。 美国农业部数据显示，截至2026年1月29日当周，美国玉米出口检验量为1136352吨，前一周修正后为 1547064吨，初值为1510167吨。2025年1月30日当周，美国玉米出口检验量为1260984吨。本作物年度迄 今，美国玉米出口检验量累计为32611083吨，上一年度同期21761284吨。美国玉米作物年度自9月1日开 始。 本周三(2月4日)，粳稻期货主力合约一动不动，截止发稿，粳稻主力报2758.00元/吨。 市场资讯： 据欧盟委员会，截至2月1日，欧盟2025/26年玉米进口量为1008万吨，而去年为1223万吨。 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西正进入大豆收割初期阶段，预计产量将创历史新高。交易商预计，在近期美豆 | | 豆粕 | | 大量购买后，未来几个月巴西供应将受青睐。布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所上周四表 | | ★ | 短线遇阻回落 | 示，阿根廷西部主要农业区近期降雨改善了土壤墒情，也进一步对美豆施压。国内 | | | | 豆粕昨日跟随美豆收跌。但现货基差方面维持平稳，或限制豆粕跌幅。后市关注阿 | | | | 根廷大豆地区 2 月降雨情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽库存处低位，进口菜粕库存持续下降，市场可售货源偏紧，菜粕价格 | | 菜粕 | 反弹高位回落 | 偏坚挺，基差走强。但首批澳籽进入压榨，且中加贸易暂无新变速，市场看多情绪 | | ★ | | 回落。叠加豆粕端下跌，昨日菜粕收跌。关注后续加籽采购进展情况，关注美加贸 | | | | 易进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 有迹象表明美国和伊朗愿意举行会谈，原油大跌，叠加马棕榈油 1 月已公布的出口 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 数据表现一般，马棕榈油收跌。昨日棕榈油跟随大幅收跌。关注 1 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-02-03 供应端上升压力，需求端静待增量 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11220元/吨，较前交易日变动+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.87元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.31元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+1650，较前交易日变动+410；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 13.05元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.13元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1830，较前交易日变动+250； 四川地区外三元生猪价格11.97元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.03元/公斤，现货基差LH03+750，较前交易日变动-170。 据农业农村部监测，2月2日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.12，比上周五下降0.55个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为133.04，比上周五下降0.64个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.44元/公斤，比上周五下降0.9%；牛 肉65.95元/公斤，与上周五持平；羊肉63.84元/公斤，比上周五上升0.1%；鸡蛋8.69元/公斤，比上周五上升0.8%； 白条鸡17.35元/公斤，比上周五上升0.4 ...

国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 做据日报 2026/2/3 | 指标 | | 2月2日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 450 | | 2500 | ==== 16/17 ===== 21/22 | ===== 17/18 == | == == | | ===== 19/20 - 24/25 | ===== 20/21 - 25/26 | | | 天津 | 410 | -3 -3 | 2000 1500 | | | | | | | | | | 340 | | 1000 | | | | | | | | | 日照 | | | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | 350 | -23 | -500 | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 11 ...