【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期延续偏强运行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 25 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 12 月 19 日独立焦企焦炭库存增加 3.78 万吨 91.1 万吨，钢 厂焦炭库存则下降 1.55 万吨至 633.73 万吨，因港口焦炭库存减少 9.15 万吨， 焦炭综合库存下降 0.71%至 964.28 万吨,同比增幅回落至 4.93%。 现货市场：港口现货市场持稳运行，日照港准一级冶金焦出库 1460；现货 市场交投氛围一般，两港库存较上一个交易日略有增加。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均盈利 16 元/吨；山西准一级焦平均盈 利 35 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 65 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-23 元/吨， 河北准一级焦平均盈利 66 元/吨。 下游需求，247 家钢厂盈利率较上周持平，高炉开工率环比下降 0.16%至 78.47%，高炉炼铁产能利用率减少 0.99%至 84.93%，日均铁水产量较上周减少 2.65 万吨至 226.55 万吨，为今年 2 月份以来最低值，同比去年减少 2.86 万吨。 上游焦煤：供应方面，煤矿炼焦煤库存延续累库，港口进口炼 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 25 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 观望情绪较浓，煤焦低位震荡 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 25 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1739 元/吨，日内录得 0.03%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.91 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +329 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.18%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1460 元/ 吨，周环比下跌 1.35%。当前，焦炭维持供需两弱格局，基本面未明显改 善，不过下游冬储补库和反内卷预期驱动焦炭期货止跌震荡，叠加 1 月后 钢厂存复产预期，关注后续下游补库和生产节奏。 焦煤：12 月 25 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1124 点，日内上涨 0.00%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.36 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+3101 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1140.0 元/吨，周环比持平。目 前，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期扰 动再现，市场情绪由弱转强 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-PTA】根据统计数据来看，现如今聚酯市场整体库 存集中在14-24天；具体产品方面，其中POY库存至14-23天， FDY库存至12-22天附近，而DTY库存则至13-25天左右；涤纶长 丝市场交投冷清，整体产销下滑。聚酯平均产销在34.7%。评： 近端检修较多，12月平衡表去库，而PTA供应尚未回归,1月也没 有累库压力, 较此前预期好转；中长期随着产能集中投放周期 结束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善；另外明年二季度PX检修较 多，远端预期较好。低位偏多思路。 【短评-白银】12月24日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美 国12月20日当周首次申请失业救济人数降至21.4万人，预期和 前值为22.4万人。这一数字已回落至2021年11月的水平，表明 劳动力市场仍未见明显压力。评：就业市场仍未见明显压力， 美股上涨，风险偏好提升利多白银，但是白银上涨动力不足， 短期见顶概率增加。白银不宜过分看多，注意止盈和盈利保 护。 投资咨询中心 2025年12月25日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-25 现实预期博弈，盘⾯震荡运⾏ 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，且进入一月后钢厂有复 产预期，随着中下游冬储补库逐渐开启，焦炭供需结构或将逐渐变 紧，基本面对价格支撑仍在，盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关 将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，且进入一月后进口压力将有所缓解，焦煤 基本面将延续边际改善，盘面估值仍拥有修复空间。 3. 合金方面：锰硅市场供需宽松格局难改，上游库存压力较大，锰 硅期价的上方空间预计有限，中期来看盘面仍将围绕成本估值附近低 位震荡运行。硅铁上游供应压力缓解，但终端需求淡季市场供需双 弱、盘面的上方空间仍不宜过度乐观，预计硅铁期价围绕成本估值附 近震荡运行为主。 4. 玻璃纯碱：玻璃供应仍有扰动预期，但中游下游库存中性偏高， 基本面来看当前供需仍旧过剩，若年底前无更多冷修，则高库存始终 压制价格，预计震荡偏弱，反之则价格上行。纯碱整体供需仍旧过 剩，预计短期以震荡为主，长期来看供给过剩格局进一步加剧，价格 中枢仍将下行，推动产能去化。 整体而言，淡季基本面亮点有限，但政策基调仍显积极，冬储 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期延续偏强运行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 12 月 19 日独立焦企焦炭库存增加 3.78 万吨 91.1 万吨，钢 厂焦炭库存则下降 1.55 万吨至 633.73 万吨，因港口焦炭库存减少 9.15 万吨， 焦炭综合库存下降 0.71%至 964.28 万吨,同比增幅回落至 4.93%。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均盈利 16 元/吨；山西准一级焦平均盈 利 35 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 65 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-23 元/吨， 河北准一级焦平均盈利 66 元/吨。 下游需求，247 家钢厂盈利率较上周持平，高炉开工率环比下降 0.16%至 78.47%，高炉炼铁产能利用率减少 0.99%至 84.93%，日均铁水产量较上周减少 2.65 万吨至 226.55 万吨，为今年 2 月份以来最低值，同比去年减少 2.86 万吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【期现行情】 期货盘面：05 焦炭开盘 1741，收盘 1746，减仓 552 手，短 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 24 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1746 元/吨，日内录得 0.20%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.87 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 552 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.18%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1480 元/ 吨，周环比持平。当前，焦炭维持供需两弱格局，基本面未明显改善，不 过下游冬储补库和反内卷预期驱动焦炭期货止跌，叠加 1 月后钢厂存复产 预期，关注后续下游补库和生产节奏。 焦煤：12 月 24 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1132 点，日内上涨 0.62%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.05 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-8652 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1140.0 元/吨，周环比持平。目 前，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期扰 动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主力合约低位反 ...

周二期价略偏强运行,现货小涨,但涨价后成交转弱。往后看,从钢厂检修计划来推导,铁水产量尚未见底,但后续可能复 | 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤( (家古,A10%,V27%,0. 2000 800 4000 600 3000 400 2000 1000 产的动力也不差;更重要的是,时间再往后,还有冬储补库的增量需求,给低位价格提供支撑。煤焦的盘面异动是否会带动 现货企稳甚至出现补库的行为,是决定当下行情能否再延续的重要驱动力。从估值的角度,可适当短多,设置止损;止盈 -200 标位观察前一处高点位置。 【硅铁锰硅】能源端犹动较多,同上走强 近期有关能耗双控,清洁能源和反内卷等政策消息较多,双硅价格受情绪助推向上。由于电力和煤炭是双硅的主要成本,短 期情绪发酵下,双硅价格仍将偏强为主。基本面上,钢材价格承压格局不变,钢厂利润不佳,铁水向下调整,直接需求走 焦炭基差(右轴) 弱。随着终端需求淡季来临,负反馈压力大。整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏高。合金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足, 中期供给过剩压力仍不减。由于供需过剩,合金厂库存累积较快,仓单数量趋于累积。对比双硅,近期猛硅供需弱于硅铁 = 青岛港: ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空交织，煤焦低位震荡 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 23 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1741 元/吨，日内录得 0.26%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.93 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +775 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.18%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1480 元/ 吨，周环比持平。当前，焦炭供需格局未明显改善，但下游冬储补库预期 和反内卷预期驱动焦炭期货止跌反弹，关注后续钢厂补库节奏。 焦煤：12 月 23 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1125.5 点，日内上涨 1.90%。截至 收盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.92 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+8361 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1140.0 元/吨，周环比持平， 折合期货仓单成本约 1116 元/吨。目前，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随 着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期扰动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主 力合约低位反弹， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The policy tone remains positive, with the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft planning major projects. In the current off - season, supply and demand are both weak. The steel rebar fundamentals are still resilient, while hot - rolled coils face inventory pressure. Supported by winter storage and cost, the futures market continues to rebound. The iron ore futures perform strongly, and the valuation of coking coal and coke continues to recover due to supply disturbances. The glass - soda ash prices are suppressed by the oversupply situation. Overall, there is a chance of a low - level rebound in the futures market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased slightly, and port inventories are accumulating. Iron water production continues to decline, weakening the rigid demand. Steel mills' restocking is slow, and there is strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][7] - Scrap steel: The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and demand remains stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is good, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still provides support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of further spot price cuts is low. As winter storage by coke and steel enterprises begins, the spot price will be more strongly supported, and the futures valuation still has room for repair, expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [2][11] - Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally. The futures valuation has room for repair, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [2][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market supply and demand of manganese silicon remain loose, and the upstream inventory pressure is large. The upward movement of the futures price may face selling pressure, and the upside space is limited. In the medium term, it will oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][15] - Ferrosilicon: The high cost supports the price bottom. Currently, the upstream supply pressure is not large, but in the off - season of terminal demand, the market supply and demand are both weak. The upside space of the futures price is not overly optimistic, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply and demand are in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress the price, expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][12] - Soda ash: Recently, the coal price recovery has strengthened the cost support. However, the overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][15] 3.5 Specific Analysis of Each Variety - Steel: The cost support is strong, and the futures market continues to rebound. The spot market trading is average. Steel production is decreasing, but rebar production has stabilized and rebounded. Demand is weak in the off - season but still has support. Steel inventories are decreasing, but the current inventory level is still high year - on - year, and demand may weaken. The upside space of the futures market is limited [6] - Iron ore: The spot price is weakly oscillating. Overseas shipments have decreased, arrivals have declined, and iron water production has dropped significantly. Port inventories are accumulating, and steel mills' restocking demand is slow to release. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [7] - Scrap steel: The supply is at a low level, and demand is stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price is expected to oscillate [9] - Coke: The third round of price cuts has been implemented, and coking enterprises' profits have turned negative. The production enthusiasm is okay, but some are restricted by environmental protection. Steel mills' inventories are increasing, and the overall market is stabilizing. The futures valuation has room for repair and is expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [11] - Coking coal: Affected by the earthquake, the market sentiment is high. Domestic supply is at a low level, and imports are high. The downstream has started to restock, and the futures valuation has room for repair [12] - Glass: The spot price is still weak, and the futures market is oscillating. The policy is positive, but the supply may decline in the long term and is difficult to have a large - scale cold - repair in the short term. The demand is weak, and middle - stream inventories are large, suppressing the valuation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price will oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [12] - Soda ash: The supply has slightly decreased, and demand is expected to weaken. The overall supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, and the market is at the bottom of the cycle. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [13][15] - Manganese silicon: The futures price is strongly oscillating, and the spot price has slightly increased. The cost has slightly loosened, demand is weak, and supply is difficult to significantly reduce inventory. The upside space of the futures price is limited, and it will oscillate at a low level in the medium term [15] - Ferrosilicon: The futures market is oscillating, and the spot price has little change. The cost is high, demand is weak, supply pressure has been alleviated, and the supply - demand relationship is balanced. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [16] 3.6 Index Information - On December 22, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities, the specialty index (Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index) all increased, with increases of 1.10%, 1.34% and 0.79% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.30% on the day, 2.44% in the past 5 days, - 0.06% in the past month, and - 6.26% since the beginning of the year [104][106]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空僵持，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：截至 12 月 19 日当周，全样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产 量合计 109.49 万吨，周环比降 1.1 万吨；全国 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 226.55 万吨，周环比下降 2.65 万吨，钢厂盈利率周环比持平，维持 35.93%的水平，大部分钢厂仍处亏损状态，焦炭短期需求压力仍存。整体 来看，焦炭供需格局未明显改善，但下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期驱动 焦炭期货止跌反弹，关注后续钢厂补库节奏。 焦煤：截至 12 月 19 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 75.8 万 吨，环比增 0.8 万吨，同比降 4.1 万吨；下游焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量 合计 109.49 万吨，周环比降 1.1 万吨，减量主要集中在独立焦化厂。因 原材料焦煤价格上涨，独立焦化厂吨焦盈利走低，生产积极性下滑。整体 来看，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期 扰动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主力合约低位 ...