Report Industry Investment Ratings - Re bar: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: One red star, indicating a bullish trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking coal: One red star with one white star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Silicomanganese: Two red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and the market condition is showing on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Report's Core View - The steel market has little supply - demand contradiction, with cautious market sentiment, and the trading floor is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to have a strong - side fluctuating trend, considering the supply situation and market policy expectations [4][6] - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are recommended to buy on dips [7][8] Grouped by Commodity Steel - The steel futures trading floor continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the market sentiment is cautious, with the short - term trading floor continuing the range - bound pattern [2] - The demand for steel in the downstream industries is weak, but the steel exports in December reached a new high [2] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment decreased seasonally, while the domestic arrival volume increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and the short - term resumption of production is difficult. The steel mills' import ore inventory is still low, and there is still an expectation for winter storage replenishment [3] Coke - The coke trading price increased sporadically, with general coking profit and a slight increase in daily production [4] - The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is at an off - season level, with the steel mills still having a strong intention to suppress prices [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal production decreased slightly, and the spot auction transactions continued to improve, with the terminal inventory increasing slightly [6] - The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production - end inventory increased sharply [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price rebounded after reaching the bottom. The manganese ore spot price increased, and there are structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory [7] - The iron water production decreased seasonally, and the silicomanganese weekly production and inventory decreased slightly [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price rebounded after reaching the bottom. Affected by relevant policies, the price is relatively strong [8] - The iron water production rebounded to a high - level range, and the export demand decreased, but the overall demand is still resilient [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak trading, with steel prices remaining volatile. The iron ore market is mainly under observation, and iron ore prices are fluctuating. The coking coal and coke market has relatively loose supply and demand, and prices are also fluctuating. The thermal coal market shows rising prices at the pithead, while downstream trading remains in a stalemate [1][3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,158 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,303 yuan/ton. Spot steel trading was generally weak, with prices basically stable and small fluctuations in the market. Purchases were mainly for low-cost essential needs, with few speculative and spot-futures transactions [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: For building materials, the fundamentals have slightly weakened. Steel mills are resuming production quickly, while downstream winter storage replenishment is delayed, leading to a rebound in inventory. However, as it is the consumption off-season for steel, the market has a relatively high tolerance for inventory. For plates, the fundamental contradictions are limited, but high inventory always suppresses price elasticity. In the short term, prices depend on cost changes [1] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect fluctuations, and there are no specific strategies for inter-period, inter-variety, spot-futures, or options [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures prices fluctuated slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports also fluctuated slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and quotes mostly followed the market. Steel mills' purchases were mainly for essential needs. The total iron ore sales at major national ports reached 841,000 tons, a 11.78% increase from the previous day. The cumulative sales of forward spot iron ore were 1.515 million tons (11 transactions), a 156.78% increase from the previous day, with 1.165 million tons sold by mines [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Currently, with high iron ore valuations, global shipments remain at a high level, and the total inventory has been rising continuously. The liquidity of some port supplies has been locked up, and the actual fundamentals of iron ore are better than the statistical data. High ore prices stimulate supply. If the negotiations are finalized later, port supplies may cause a supply shock, and there is great uncertainty in the long - term iron ore market. In the short term, with steel mills resuming production and winter storage replenishment, iron ore prices will maintain a fluctuating trend. Future attention should be paid to the progress of iron ore negotiations and steel mills' replenishment [3] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect fluctuations, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward. The price of coking coal for furnace use increased, and coking profits were somewhat restored. The supply in the production areas has been steadily increasing, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rapidly recovered, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal around 1,060 - 1,080 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of the coke market is currently relatively balanced, and coke prices are temporarily stable. On the raw material side, coking coal prices have recently increased, and the market has high purchasing enthusiasm with large order volumes. Coking plants' production enthusiasm is average, as is the downstream purchasing enthusiasm. For raw materials, downstream buyers mostly purchase as needed, and coal mines' production enthusiasm is at a normal level. In the short term, the coke market will mainly remain stable, and prices may continue to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to steel mills' production resumption and replenishment. For coking coal, supply and demand are loose, imports have increased, domestic high - quality production capacity has been released, and the inventory at ports and factories is at a high level, with great pressure to reduce inventory. In the short term, it will also mainly fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and downstream replenishment progress [6] - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is to expect fluctuations, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the overall situation is still strong, with good non - power and other terminal demand, and normal downstream replenishment. Most coal mines have good sales, with many coal - hauling trucks, and prices continue to rise. However, some coal mines have poor sales, and prices have been slightly reduced. Currently, coal mines say that transactions are mainly through long - term agreements, and there are few market coal transactions. Later, coal prices may stabilize. At ports, trading remains sluggish. Affected by the inverted upstream shipping prices, port quotes are relatively high, but most downstream buyers are observing, with only sporadic inquiries. There are serious differences in the market. Some believe that there is an expectation of Spring Festival replenishment, and with continuous upstream price increases, the willingness to hold prices is strong under cost support. Some market participants believe that current downstream consumption is lower than expected and that the price increase at the pithead is not sustainable, so they have a strong willingness to sell [7] - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have continued to rise slightly, but downstream demand has not met expectations, and the temperature is relatively high in the coming week, so there are still differences in views. However, the supply elasticity of coal is large, and attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and replenishment [7] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the industry is mainly in an oscillatory operation. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, and the spot price of coke has started to rise. However, in January, coal mines resumed production, and Mongolian coal imports rebounded to a high level, so the high - supply pressure still exists, and the futures prices have corrected from high levels. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking expectations support the iron ore price, but high inventory restricts the upward space. In the off - season, demand has seasonally weakened. With the gradual resumption of production by steel mills, the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end has become more obvious, and fundamental contradictions have begun to gradually accumulate, suppressing the valuation of the steel futures market. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and there are expected disturbances on the supply side. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both the supply and demand sides need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot price has weakened, but the futures market still shows resilience. Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and arrivals are expected to remain at a high level. The demand side has a mixed situation of blast furnace maintenance and resumption, and the inventory pressure is still accumulating [1][7]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventories are relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Recently, leading steel enterprises in East China announced a price increase of 50 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the spot price will follow the increase [1][8]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive the entry of spot - futures and speculative demand for procurement, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: As the New Year approaches, the winter restocking intensity gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be alleviated, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The pattern of loose supply and demand of manganese silicon continues, the upstream has great pressure to destock, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling pressure from hedging. In the medium term, the futures price is still expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: Currently, the supply and demand of the silicon iron market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that the futures price will follow the sector [2]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expected disturbances in the supply, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in oversupply. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2][14]. 5. Steel - The cost provides support, but the inventory suppresses. The futures market oscillates. The spot market trading is weak, and the demand has seasonally weakened. The overall steel inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and fundamental contradictions have begun to gradually accumulate [7]. 6. Indexes - **Comprehensive Index**: On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2425.27, down 0.30%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.12, down 0.28%; the industrial product index was 2348.14, down 0.52% [106]. - **Steel Industry Chain Index**: On January 13, 2026, the steel industry chain index was 2024.77, with a daily decline of 0.75%, a decline of 0.72% in the past 5 days, an increase of 6.09% in the past month, and an increase of 2.47% since the beginning of the year [108].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC FUTURES provides operation ratings for various commodities on January 13, 2026. The ratings are as follows: Threaded steel (★★★), Hot-rolled steel (★★★), Iron ore (★★★), Coke (★☆☆), Coking coal (★☆☆), Silicon manganese (★★☆), Silicon iron (★★☆) [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of range-bound oscillation. The demand for downstream industries is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the rebound momentum is insufficient, but there is still support below [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is weak, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation still exists. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be in a strong - oscillation state. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level in the off - season, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are recommended to buy on dips. The silicon manganese has a structural problem in port inventory, and the silicon iron is affected by relevant policies and has certain demand resilience [7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market oscillates. In the off - season, the apparent demand for threaded steel declines, and the inventory accumulates. The demand for hot - rolled steel falls, and the inventory is slowly depleted. The steel mill's profit is marginally repaired, and the blast furnace is gradually restarted. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the range - bound oscillation pattern may continue [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillates. The global shipment decreases seasonally, the domestic arrival volume increases, and the port inventory accumulates. The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, the iron - water production is at the bottom, and it is difficult to resume production significantly in the short term. The steel mill's imported ore inventory increases, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation exists. The market sentiment is volatile, and the short - term oscillation is expected [3] Coke - The coke price oscillates downward during the day. The transaction price rises sporadically, the coking profit is average, and the daily output slightly increases. The inventory hardly changes. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillates downward during the day. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1520 vehicles. The coking coal mine output slightly decreases, and the spot auction transaction improves. The total inventory increases significantly. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillates. Driven by the futures rebound, the manganese ore spot price rises. There is a structural problem in the manganese ore port inventory. The iron - water production decreases seasonally, the weekly output of silicon manganese slightly decreases, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price oscillates. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market expects a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The iron - water production rebounds, the export demand decreases, and the secondary demand increases marginally. The supply decreases significantly, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Medium-term outlook: Sideways [5] Core Viewpoints - In the off-season, the fundamentals are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to monitor the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation. The prices of furnace materials are still expected to rise from the low level, but the upside is limited by the steel mills' profits [5]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventory is continuously accumulating, with supply-side disturbance expectations. The resumption of hot metal production and pre-festival restocking support the ore price, but the high inventory restricts the upside. The supply and demand at both ends in reality remain to be verified, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak, the steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, supporting the demand. Overall, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [1]. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive the entry of spot - futures and speculative demand for procurement, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase is expected to be implemented, and the futures market is expected to follow the trend of coking coal [2]. - Coking coal: As the New Year approaches, the winter restocking intensity gradually increases, and the behavior of over - importing coking coal from Mongolia has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in the futures and spot prices [2]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand of manganese silicon continues, the upstream de - stocking pressure is relatively large, and it is difficult to transmit the cost downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling pressure from hedging. In the medium term, the futures price is still expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level [2]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that the futures price will mainly follow the trend of the sector [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in excess. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [2]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in excess. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [2][5]. Steel - The pressure of inventory accumulation is becoming more prominent, but the cost support is relatively strong. The spot market transactions are average. As some steel mills end their maintenance, the hot metal output continues to rise, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to increase. The demand is seasonally weakening, and the overall steel inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The fundamental contradictions are gradually accumulating. However, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter restocking, the cost side still has support, and the futures market will fluctuate widely [6]. Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals are operating at a high level. The supply side has disturbance expectations, and the demand side has increased due to the resumption of production of blast furnaces and the increase in restocking demand. However, the steel mills' inventory accumulation speed is slow. The port inventory continues to accumulate significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7]. Scrap Steel - The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. The steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The leading steel enterprises in East China have announced a price increase, and the spot price is expected to follow suit [8]. Glass - The production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the processing factories are approaching the holiday. The supply may decline in the long run, but it is difficult to have a large number of cold repairs in the short term. The downstream demand is weak, and the large inventory in the middle - reaches always suppresses the glass valuation. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [12]. Soda Ash - The fundamental situation of oversupply remains unchanged, and there is still pressure on the upper price. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand is showing a downward trend, and the dynamic oversupply expectation is further intensifying. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by market sentiment. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long run [12][14]. Manganese Silicon - The trend of the black sector is relatively warm, but there is still pressure on the upper limit of the futures price. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, the upstream de - stocking pressure is large, and it is difficult to transmit the cost downward. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level [14][15]. Ferrosilicon - The supply and demand in the market are both weak in the off - season, and it mainly follows the trend of the sector. The fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that the futures price will follow the trend of the sector, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of prices and the control of production in the main producing areas [16].

News Summary - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the increase in iron ore inventory in major ports of Australia and Brazil, along with changes in shipping volumes and market sentiment affecting iron ore prices [1][3]. Group 1: Inventory and Shipping Data - As of January 5-11, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil reached 12.552 million tons, an increase of 969,000 tons from the previous period [1]. - In the second week of January 2026, Brazil's iron ore stock was 10.461 million tons, down from 30.8902 million tons in January of the previous year, with an average daily shipment of 1.7435 million tons, reflecting a 24.17% increase compared to January of last year [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Market sentiment and funding are driving significant price increases in the black commodities sector, although a correction is expected as macroeconomic sentiments fade [3]. - The first quarter is entering a seasonally sensitive weather period in major production areas of Australia and Brazil, which may lead to temporary reductions in shipments [3]. - Current iron and steel production is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of steel mill restarts in January and increasing demand for inventory replenishment, providing short-term support for iron ore prices [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The commissioning of the West Simandou project is expected to further ease supply expectations [4]. - On the demand side, while exports remain somewhat stable, domestic demand in real estate and infrastructure is still seeking a bottom, indicating weak support for internal demand [4]. - Technically, after breaking through previous levels, a pullback is anticipated, but the low-buy strategy remains unchanged for the time being [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, while the price of thermal coal shows a mixed trend with uncertain demand [1][3][5][8] - The supply and demand patterns of different black building materials vary, and factors such as production resumption, winter storage, and raw material replenishment have an impact on prices [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3165 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3311 yuan/ton. The inventory of construction steel decreased by 1.74% month - on - month, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.98% month - on - month. The spot trading of steel was average, and the price followed the futures price [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The fundamentals of building materials have weakened slightly, with rapid production resumption of steel mills and delayed winter storage replenishment by downstream. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventory suppresses price elasticity. Short - term prices depend on cost changes [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to fluctuate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore fluctuated upward. The price of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports rose slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore in major ports decreased by 19.70% month - on - month, and the transaction volume of forward spot decreased by 52.15% month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 5.9% month - on - month [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is increasing. The actual fundamentals are better than the statistical data. High prices stimulate supply release. If negotiations are concluded, there will be a supply shock. Short - term prices will fluctuate due to production resumption and winter storage replenishment [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to fluctuate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated upward. The price of coal for furnace use rose slightly, and coking profits improved. After New Year's Day, the blast furnaces of steel mills resumed production, and the rigid demand increased slightly. The supply in the production area increased steadily, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal recovered rapidly [5] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of coke is relatively balanced. With the production resumption of steel mills, the actual demand has improved, but the purchasing willingness in the trading link is still low. The raw material replenishment of steel mills before the Spring Festival is expected to boost demand. The supply and demand of coking coal are both increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The price of coking coal has strong support below [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate in unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, the price has been strong recently, but the downstream is resistant to high - priced coal, resulting in a mixed situation of price increases and decreases. At the port, the inventory has increased slightly, but it is still lower than last year. The import coal price has risen, but the price advantage of low - calorie Indonesian coal is weak [8] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The coal price has risen slightly, but the downstream demand has not met expectations. The future temperature is expected to rise, and there are differences in views. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern and non - power coal consumption and replenishment [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron Ore: ★★☆, representing a clear long trend and the行情 is fermenting on the market [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, meaning a long bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a long bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: ★★☆, representing a clear long trend and the行情 is fermenting on the market [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, indicating a clear long trend and the行情 is fermenting on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is still optimistic, but the weak demand restricts the upside space. The steel market is likely to continue the range - bound pattern, and the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Coke and coking coal prices are likely to be strongly volatile, while silicon manganese and silicon iron are recommended to buy on dips [1][2][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market rebounded today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread continued to decline, production slightly increased, and inventory began to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined, production continued to increase slightly, and inventory was slowly depleted. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, blast furnaces were gradually restarted, and hot metal production increased in the short term, but its sustainability remains to be seen. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports remain high. The overall market sentiment is optimistic, and the market is likely to continue the range - bound pattern [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market rose slightly today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased seasonally and were still strong year - on - year. Brazilian shipments decreased significantly, Australian shipments were basically flat, and the volume sent to China increased. The supply from non - mainstream regions improved. Domestic port inventory increased significantly last week and is expected to continue to accumulate. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season, blast furnaces that had regular maintenance have restarted, and hot metal production increased last week. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has been increasing continuously, and there is still an expectation of winter storage replenishment. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated upward during the day. Coke transaction prices rose sporadically, coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory hardly changed. The carbon element supply is abundant, downstream hot metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and currently, the demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level. The steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong. Coke prices on the market are at a premium, and prices are likely to be strongly volatile [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated upward during the day. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,252 vehicles yesterday. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the resumption of production after the New Year's Day was good. Spot auction transactions continued to improve, and transaction prices increased slightly. Terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased significantly. The carbon element supply is abundant, downstream hot metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and currently, the demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level. The steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong. Coking coal prices on the market are at a premium to Mongolian coal, and prices are likely to be strongly volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices dropped significantly during the day. Driven by the market rebound, manganese ore spot prices increased. There is a structural problem with manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon - manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The manganese ore spot transaction prices increased last week. On the demand side, hot metal production decreased seasonally. Silicon - manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [6] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices dropped significantly during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, prices are relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expectation of a certain decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. On the demand side, hot metal production rebounded to a high level. Export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand is still resilient. Silicon - iron supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [7]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 数据来源: Mysteel 汾渭 中信期货研究所 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我可不会因为关注 、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 免责声明：除非另有说明、中信期货有限公司（以下简称"中信期货"） 拥有本报告的版权/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权、不得发 送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐 含的保证。本报告并不构成中信期货给予的任何私人咨询建议。 冬储补库开启,焦煤震荡上行 2026/01/12 研究员: 余典 陶存辉 薛原 串宇蒙 钟宏 从业资格号 F03122523 从业资格号 F03099559 从业资格号 F03100815 从业资格号 F03144159 从业资格号 F03118246 投资咨询号 Z0019832 投资咨询号 Z0020955 投资咨询号 Z0021807 投资咨询号 Z0022199 投资咨询号 Z0022727 今日焦煤期货全线飘红,主力合约im26 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货双焦周报 强预期弱现实，双焦宽幅偏强震荡 20260111 作者：姜世东 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F03126164 交易咨询号：Z0020059 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链 3 期现市场 4 库存端 5 供给端 6 需求端 u 供应：2026年1月9日523家样本矿山炼焦煤开工率85.34%，周环比增长；全样本独立焦化厂产能利用率72.69%，周环比增长； 钢厂焦炭方面，本周产能利用率85.67%；日均产量46.88万吨，周环比微幅增长。 u 需求：截止1月9日MYSTEEL调研247家钢厂高炉开工率79.31%；日均铁水产量229.5万吨，铁水产量环比小幅增加。247家钢 厂盈利率37.66%。吨焦平均利润-45元/吨，吨焦平均利润较前周下降31元/吨。 u 库存：截止1月9日230家独立焦化厂焦煤库存911.96万吨，环比小 ...