Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Report date: July 14, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Market Data Price Changes from July 7 - 11, 2025 - WTI increased by $1.88, BRENT by $1.72, and DUBAI by $0.97 [3] - SC decreased by 8.60, OMAN increased by $0.62 [3] - Japan naphtha CFR decreased by 19.40, Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by 0.65 [3][18] Other Market Indicators - BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased by 0.12, WTI - BRENT decreased by 0.16 [3] - SC - BRT decreased by 2.89, SC - WTI decreased by 3.05 [3] - Domestic gasoline decreased by 30.00, domestic gasoline - BRT decreased by 130.00 [3] Group 3: Daily News - Kazakhstan plans to maintain current oil production levels until the end of the year [3] - A Gaza cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas may be reached in one or two weeks [4] - UAE Energy Minister is not worried about oil market oversupply and sees no increase in oil product inventories [4] - OPEC + is discussing pausing production increases from October and entering a waiting period [4][6] - Saudi Arabia's crude exports to China in June reached the highest level since 2023, with about 1.57 million barrels per day [4] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals US Data (Week ending July 4) - US crude exports increased by 45.2万桶/日 to 275.7万桶/日 [5] - US domestic crude production decreased by 4.8万桶 to 1338.5万桶/日 [5] - Commercial crude inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 707.0万桶 to 426 million barrels, a 1.69% increase [5] - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 23.8万桶 to 403 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [5] - US commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 90.6万桶/日 to 601.3万桶/日 [5] - EIA gasoline inventory was - 265.8万桶, against an expected - 148.6万桶 [5] - EIA refined oil inventory was - 82.5万桶, against an expected - 31.4万桶 [5] China Data - Main refinery operating rate increased, Shandong local refinery operating rate decreased [5] - China's gasoline and diesel production both increased, with main refineries up and independent refineries down [5] - Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week [5] - Main refinery comprehensive profit rebounded, local refinery comprehensive profit improved [5] Group 5: Weekly View - Crude oil prices fluctuated this week, and the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets oscillated at high levels [6] - The US plans to impose new tariffs on over 20 countries from August 1, and other trading partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs [6] - OPEC + is discussing pausing production increases from October after restoring 2.2 million barrels of supply in September, and then considering restoring another 1.66 million barrels of production later [6] - Global oil inventories accumulated this week, with a significant increase in US crude inventories during the week of July 4 [6] - US oil drilling rigs decreased by 1, and fracturing operations rebounded during the week ending July 11 [6] - Refinery profits in Europe and the US strengthened this week, and the near - month spread of European diesel soared [6] - The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China are neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation of gasoline and diesel in China and a decline in refinery profits [6] - During the peak refinery operation season, the monthly spreads of crude oil are expected to remain high - level oscillating, with WTI and Brent stronger than the Dubai market [6] - Crude oil prices face downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies, and OPEC + pausing production increases in the fourth quarter will not change the situation [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" ended support for solar and wind energy on July 4, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, and eight member countries had already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump indicated that a Gaza agreement might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on relevant Iraqi enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories remained flat this week. US commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, while Cushing inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs as of July 4 declined rapidly, and the US fundamentals remained relatively tight. This week, global refinery profits rebounded, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The monthly spread of crude oil is expected to remain in high - level oscillations. The WTI and Brent markets are stronger than the Dubai market, showing a market divergence. The absolute price is under downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [5]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily News - US President Trump stated on social media that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and the date would not change. He might send a tax - levying letter to the EU in the next two days. At a cabinet meeting, Trump said he was still planning to impose tariffs on specific industries including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals, with a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals [3]. - The arrival of crude oil at Shandong refineries continued to decline but remained higher than the same period last year. - Sources said that OPEC+ might approve another production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September at its August 3 meeting [3]. - The change in API crude oil inventories in the US for the week ending July 4 was 7.128 million barrels, the largest increase since the week of February 7, 2025 [3]. b. Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week of June 27, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels per day to 2.305 million barrels per day [4]. - EIA report: In the week of June 27, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 200 barrels to 13.433 million barrels per day [4]. - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.845 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.93% increase [4]. - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 20.288 million barrels per day, a 1.12% decrease compared to the same period last year [4]. - EIA report: In the week of June 27, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 239,000 barrels to 402.8 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [4]. - EIA report: In the week of June 27, US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.919 million barrels per day, an increase of 975,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [4]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased. Gasoline and diesel production from major refineries increased, while that from independent refineries decreased. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel at local refineries both increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries improved month - on - month [4]. c. Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" ended support for solar and wind energy on July 4, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, and eight member countries had already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump indicated that a Gaza agreement might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on relevant Iraqi enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories remained flat this week. US commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, while Cushing inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs as of July 4 declined rapidly, and the US fundamentals remained relatively tight. This week, global refinery profits rebounded, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The monthly spread of crude oil is expected to remain in high - level oscillations. The WTI and Brent markets are stronger than the Dubai market, showing a market divergence. The absolute price is under downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The crude oil market is facing a game between accelerating supply return and weak demand recovery. OPEC+ accelerating production increase may drive the global crude oil market from destocking to a slight restocking phase, but the low OECD commercial inventory still supports the price. In the third quarter, the oil price may show a volatile downward pattern, and the fluctuation center is restricted by the trade - off between OPEC+'s actual production increase execution rate and the northern hemisphere's summer refinery operating rate [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On July 4 - 5, the SC crude oil main contract price fell 1.03% to 503.5 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent prices remained stable at $67.18 and $68.85 per barrel respectively. The cross - regional spreads of SC with Brent and WTI narrowed, and the near - far month spread (SC continuous - continuous 3) also narrowed, indicating a marginal relief of the market's expectation of tight future supply [2]. - On the supply side, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, accelerating production increase. Since April, the released production will reach 1.918 million barrels per day, significantly faster than the original plan. Saudi Arabia's official price premium strategies for August are differentiated, suggesting its intention to maintain regional supply balance through structural pricing [3]. - On the demand side, there are signs of marginal repair. The recovery of fuel supply at the UK's Lindsey refinery and India's plan to expand refinery capacity have improved short - term refinery demand, but the significant reduction in Brent crude oil speculative net long positions reflects doubts about the continuous upward space of oil prices [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On July 4, 2025, SC futures price decreased by 0.55%, WTI decreased by 1.01%, and Brent decreased by 0.49%. Among spot prices, Oman, Victory, Dubai, ESPO, and Duri increased, while others had different degrees of decline. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI changed, and the SC continuous - continuous 3 spread decreased by 12.36%. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.93%, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: On July 4, 2025, FU futures price decreased by 0.70%, LU decreased by 0.06%, and NYMEX fuel oil increased by 1.75%. Among spot prices, some increased and some decreased. The Singapore high - low sulfur spread decreased by 1.86%, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 2.99%. The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 3.91% [7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: OPEC+ will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and some members' over - production has caused disputes. Saudi Aramco's move to sell power plant assets may indicate financial pressure [3][8]. - **Demand**: The UK's Lindsey refinery resumed fuel supply, and India plans to expand refinery capacity. Dubai Airlines resumed flights to Tehran, slightly alleviating geopolitical premiums [4][10]. - **Inventory**: The fuel oil futures warehouse receipt decreased by 10,000 tons, while the medium - sulfur crude oil and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged [11]. - **Market Information**: Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arab light crude oil for different regions in August. The net long positions of gasoline speculators increased, while those of Brent crude oil decreased [11]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data, which help to comprehensively understand the supply and demand situation of the oil market [13][15][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Weekend OPEC+ confirmed production increase in August, with a daily increase of 548,000 barrels exceeding market expectations, bringing strong short - term downward risk to oil prices. Trump's tariff exemption period expires this week. Although the US Treasury Secretary said that several trade agreements are close to being reached, other major economies are not optimistic. There are still many negative factors to be released this week, and short - term oil prices are under obvious pressure. Short - term, oil prices will operate in the 490 - 500 range, and long - term, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Crude Oil 2508 Fundamental Analysis**: The US is close to reaching several trade agreements, and OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. The global economic outlook is stable, and market fundamentals are healthy. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. US API and EIA inventories increased, while Cushing area inventory decreased. The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is below the average. WTI crude oil's main position has more long - positions increasing, while Brent crude oil's main position has more long - positions decreasing. Short - term, oil prices will operate in the 490 - 500 range, and long - term, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Futures and Spot Market Quotes**: Brent crude oil settlement price dropped from 68.80 to 68.30, a decrease of 0.73%; WTI crude oil settlement price dropped from 67.00 to 62.36, a decrease of 6.93%; SC crude oil settlement price rose from 503.7 to 506.4, an increase of 0.54%; Oman crude oil settlement price rose from 68.70 to 69.78, an increase of 1.57%. In the spot market, prices of various types of crude oil also changed to different degrees [7][9]. 2. Recent News - **Tariff Situation**: As the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, the global market faces a crucial week. The US may re - impose tariffs on dozens of countries after July 9. The US Treasury Secretary said that trade partners need to reach an agreement by August 1, otherwise, tariffs will return to the level on April 2. India and the US may reach a mini - trade agreement in 24 - 48 hours, with an average tariff of about 10%, but India has set red lines in agriculture and dairy products [5]. - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day from August, and may consider another 548,000 - barrel - per - day increase in September. If so, it will revoke the 2.2 - million - barrel - per - day production cut plan implemented in 2023 one year ahead of schedule. However, the actual supply increase may be lower than expected because Saudi Arabia is pressuring over - producing countries. Saudi Arabia raised oil prices for the Asian market after the production increase announcement, showing confidence in the market [5]. 3. Multi - Empty Concerns - **Positive Factors**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict has intensified again [6]. - **Negative Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months; the US has tense trade relations with other economies; Iran and Israel have reached a cease - fire [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, it awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Inventory Data**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 680,000 barrels in the week ending June 28, and EIA inventory increased by 3.845 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 1.493 million barrels in the week ending June 28. As of July 4, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.957 million barrels [3]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet showing the supply - demand gap, OPEC+ crude oil production, and the call on OPEC+ from 2023 to 2026 [18][19]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of June 24, the net long - position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 1,921 [15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of June 24, the net long - position of Brent crude oil funds decreased by 80,577 [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Weekly Review**: This week, the global fuel oil price fluctuations decreased, and the premium caused by geopolitical risks was fully reversed. High - sulfur prices were relatively weaker than low - sulfur, showing a slight downward trend, while low - sulfur prices were relatively firm [4]. - **Weekly Outlook**: After the geopolitical risks were removed, the market focus shifted to fundamentals. OPEC's potential increase in crude oil production may lead to a decline in crude oil prices on Monday, dragging down fuel oil prices. For high - sulfur fuel oil, with large refinery maintenance in the Middle East and Russia, but high gasoline and diesel cracks, refinery operating rates may rise, increasing supply. Meanwhile, high - sulfur demand lacks growth due to weak secondary raw material demand from Indian and Chinese refineries. Overall, high - sulfur fuel oil may continue to decline. For low - sulfur fuel oil, low exports from Brazil and Japan and domestic refineries' focus on gasoline and diesel production may support LU valuation [4]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operation**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries are presented, showing their trends over time [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units are provided, showing their trends from 2018 - 2025 [10][12][13][15]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: Data on China's monthly fuel oil production, low - sulfur fuel oil production, and fuel oil commodity volume are shown, covering multiple years [19]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on Singapore's monthly fuel oil ship - supply sales, China's monthly fuel oil apparent consumption, and China's monthly marine fuel oil actual consumption are presented [22]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on Singapore's heavy oil inventory, European ARA fuel oil inventory, Fujairah's heavy distillate inventory, and US residual fuel oil inventory are provided, showing their trends over time [25][27][28]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujeirah, Singapore, and other locations are presented, covering multiple years [33][34][35]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, Northwest Europe, and other locations are provided, showing their trends over time [37][38][40]. - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, New York Harbor, and other locations are presented [43]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore are provided [45]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: Data on Singapore's viscosity spread and high - low sulfur spread are presented [55][57]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: Data on Singapore's high - sulfur and low - sulfur crack spreads, and Northwest Europe's 3.5% and 1% crack spreads are provided [59][61][62]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads**: Data on Singapore's and Northwest Europe's high - sulfur and low - sulfur paper month spreads are presented [66][67]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on China's monthly fuel oil import and export volumes (excluding biodiesel) are presented [72][74][75]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions are provided [77]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions are provided [79]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Internal - External Spreads**: Data on the 380 - spot internal - external spread, 0.5% spot internal - external spread, and the internal - external spreads of FU and LU contracts against the Singapore market are presented [82]. - **Analysis of Spreads**: This week, domestic and overseas spot and futures prices were narrowly adjusted. For FU, the reduction of warehouse receipts and the decline in overseas spot prices led to a shift from a discount to a premium. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the stronger overseas spot prices due to reduced exports from Brazil and Japan led to a discount of LU against overseas spots [83]. - **Spot Market Internal - External Spreads**: Data on the 380 - spot internal - external spread, 0.5% spot internal - external spread, and LU - Singapore internal - external spread are presented [86][87][88]. - **Futures Market Internal - External Spreads**: Data on the internal - external spreads of FU and LU contracts against the Singapore market are presented [90][91]. - **FU and LU Positions and Trading Volume Changes**: Data on the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contracts, continuous contracts, and low - sulfur fuel oil contracts are presented [93][95][98]. - **FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: Data on the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts are presented [105][106].

Group 1 - Saudi Arabia is exporting crude oil at the fastest rate in over a year, with an increase of 441,000 barrels per day (approximately 7%) to 6.36 million barrels per day, reflecting its strategic determination to regain market share in the global oil market [1] - The surge in exports coincides with OPEC+'s accelerated crude oil production plans, benefiting consumers despite regional shipping disruptions due to the Israel-Iran conflict [4] - The increase in exports is notable as it occurs during the summer season when domestic demand for oil typically rises, suggesting that Saudi Arabia may release a larger proportion of oil supply after summer [4] Group 2 - In June, Saudi Arabia exported approximately 190 million barrels of crude oil through its Gulf and Red Sea ports, responding to U.S. President Trump's calls for lower oil prices [4] - The current temperature in Riyadh has exceeded 40 degrees Celsius, leading to a significant increase in domestic oil demand for power generation and desalination, yet Saudi Arabia still achieved substantial export growth [5] - OPEC+ has approved a total production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for May to July, which is three times the original plan, with Saudi Arabia allowed to increase production by 167,000 barrels per day each month [6]

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 11, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ actual production increase is lower than market expectations, and the peak travel season in Europe and the United States is gradually starting, so there is some upward momentum for oil prices in the short term [7] - In the later stage, as tariff negotiations continue to advance, demand expectations are expected to be further raised, but still lower than the level before the tariff war [7] - The balance sheet adjustment is limited, and inventory accumulation is still expected in the 2nd - 4th quarters [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI's opening price was $64.8, closing price was $65.38, with a high of $65.43, low of $64.20, a rise of 1.24%, and trading volume of 21.11 million lots; Brent's opening price was $65.85, closing price was $66.34, with a high of $66.39, low of $65.38, a rise of 0.93%, and trading volume of 21.62 million lots; SC's opening price was 478.2 yuan/barrel, closing price was 479.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 482.4 yuan/barrel, low of 474.8 yuan/barrel, a rise of 1.27%, and trading volume of 9.24 million lots [6] - OPEC+ 5 member countries' crude oil production increase in May was still lower than the commitment, basically in line with expectations, which promoted the recent rise in oil prices [6] - Saudi Arabia has stated to increase production, but the actual production increase of 8 member countries has not reached the declared level. If the production increase falls short of expectations, it will provide additional support to the supply side [7] - In the 5 - month report, due to the suspension of the Sino - US tariff conflict, the three major institutions adjusted the demand expectations, with the overall improvement. The IEA significantly raised the demand expectation, while the adjustment range of EIA and OPEC was relatively limited. Due to the supply growth expectations of OPEC+ and countries like Brazil and Guyana, the balance sheet adjustment was limited, and inventory accumulation was still expected in the 2nd - 4th quarters [7] 2. Industry News - Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization SOMO will set the official selling price of Basra Medium crude oil sold to Asia in July at a premium of $0.30 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai crude oil average price [8] - The oil production of five OPEC+ member countries participating in the production increase increased by 180,000 barrels per day in May, lower than the promised increase of 310,000 barrels per day [8] - Due to refinery shutdowns, fuel imports in California, USA reached the highest level in 4 years [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of various crude oils, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory [10][12][18]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 10, 2025 [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term, due to OPEC+ actual production increase lower than expected, improved macro - expectations, and the start of the travel season in Europe and America, oil prices have upward momentum [6][7] - Saudi's actual production increase of 8 member countries hasn't reached the declared level since April. Future attention should be paid to the actual implementation of production increase. If it falls short of expectations, it will support the supply side [6] - In May, due to the suspension of Sino - US tariff conflicts, the three major institutions adjusted demand expectations, with IEA significantly raising and EIA and OPEC adjusting moderately. But due to supply growth expectations from OPEC+ and other countries, the balance sheet adjustment is limited, and the 2nd - 4th quarters still point to inventory accumulation. Continued tariff negotiations may further raise demand expectations but still below pre - tariff - war levels [6] Group 3: Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price | Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Million Lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | WTI (main contract) | 63.33 | 64.77 | 64.80 | 62.82 | 2.21 | 28.10 | | Brent (main contract) | 65.26 | 66.65 | 66.67 | 64.80 | 2.00 | 33.53 | | SC (main contract, Yuan/Barrel) | 468.8 | 474.3 | 476.8 | 467.7 | 1.37 | 12.06 | [6] Group 4: Industry News - Iran will respond to the US's new nuclear negotiation proposal on Monday [8] - Israel assured the White House not to attack Iran's nuclear facilities unless Trump says the negotiation fails [8] - Venezuela plans to raise oil prices by 50% [8] - Morgan Stanley: OPEC+ quota increase hasn't led to a surge in production [8] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides data on global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent price, WTI and Oman spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory [10][11][18]

Group 1 - Oil prices for both WTI and Brent fell by nearly $1, with a daily decline of 1.00%, primarily due to OPEC+ potentially discussing an increase in oil production exceeding 411,000 barrels per day at their upcoming meeting [2] - OPEC+ members have been increasing production faster than previously planned, with Saudi Arabia and Russia aiming to punish overproducing allies and regain market share [2] - The announcement of a potential increase in production has led to a significant drop in oil prices, with analysts suggesting that the actual impact of any announcement may be limited [2][3] Group 2 - The spread between the expiring Brent July futures contract and the more liquid August contract narrowed, with the latter rising by 30 cents to $63.65, as investors anticipated OPEC+'s production increase decision [3] - A report from JPMorgan indicated that the global oil surplus has expanded to 2.2 million barrels per day, necessitating price adjustments to stimulate supply response and restore balance [3] - The reinstatement of tariffs from the Trump era has contributed to a decline in oil prices by over 10% since April 2, with ongoing trade disputes creating market uncertainty [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Overnight news that OPEC+ is considering another increase in production in July hit oil prices hard. Although the G7 is considering lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil, which partially boosted the market, the US has not supported the resolution. Geopolitically, a new round of US-Iran talks is expected to take place today, and the hope of reaching an agreement is slim due to the previous tense relations caused by Israel's planned attack. There is continuous geopolitical support below, and oil prices are expected to oscillate at low levels in the short term, waiting for more news. Short-term oil prices are expected to trade in the range of 450 - 460, and long-term long positions can be held lightly [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: G7 finance ministers and central bank governors are discussing lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil exports to $50 per barrel. OPEC+ members are discussing whether to agree on another large-scale production increase at the June 1 meeting, with a possible 411,000 barrels per day increase in July production, but no final agreement has been reached [3]. - **Basis**: On May 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $63.75 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $63.67 per barrel, with a basis of 19.16 yuan per barrel, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 2.499 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.449 million barrels. US EIA inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 1.328 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.277 million barrels. Cushing region inventories decreased by 457,000 barrels for the week ending May 16, compared with a previous decrease of 1.069 million barrels. As of May 21, Shanghai crude oil futures inventories remained unchanged at 4.029 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average is flat, and the price is below the moving average [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of May 13, the main positions in WTI and Brent crude oil were long positions, and the number of long positions increased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short-term oil prices are expected to oscillate at low levels, trading in the range of 450 - 460, and long-term long positions can be held lightly [3]. 2. Recent News - Iran warns that if Israel attacks its nuclear energy facilities, it will hold the US responsible, and any such attack will destroy Iran's efforts to restart relations with Washington. Iran and the US are preparing for the fifth round of nuclear talks in Rome on Friday [5]. - G7 finance ministers and central bank governors are discussing lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil exports to $50 per barrel, but the US has not supported the resolution [3][5]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: No information provided - **Bearish Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and OPEC+ may increase production ahead of schedule. The market is driven by the resonance of damaged demand due to US policies and possible rapid production increases on the supply side. Risk points include the breakdown of unity within OPEC+ and the escalation of war risks. The US threatens to impose sanctions on Iran, and Venezuelan crude oil also faces sanctions risks. There are signs of a certain easing in the trade war [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased by -0.72%, -0.60%, -1.22%, and -1.55% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil decreased by -1.01%, -0.60%, -3.69%, -2.94%, and -3.50% respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 2.499 million barrels, and EIA inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 1.328 million barrels [3][10][13]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of May 13, the net long position was 185,301, an increase of 9,873 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of May 13, the net long position was 151,144, an increase of 53,586 [19].