Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has significantly increased oil production, reversing previous voluntary cuts, with a focus on future decisions regarding suspended supply levels and market conditions [1][4][5]. Group 1: Production Decisions - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, with key members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq participating in the decision [3]. - The organization has fully reversed the voluntary cut of 2.2 million barrels per day that was implemented in November 2023, marking a shift from a reduction to an increase in production [4]. - OPEC+ officials indicated that the future of an additional 1.66 million barrels per day of suspended capacity will depend on market conditions, with the next evaluation meeting scheduled for September 7 [1][4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The decision to increase production comes amid a stable global economic outlook and low oil inventories, which OPEC+ cited as reasons for the adjustment [4]. - Despite the increase, market reactions have been muted, with Brent crude oil prices only slightly declining to $69.38 per barrel [4]. - Analysts warn that the market may face an oversupply starting in October, urging OPEC+ to be cautious about further increases [5][6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global oil supply is expected to grow significantly, with the EIA reporting a production increase of 628,000 barrels per day in June, while demand growth is slowing [7]. - As of June, global oil demand was reported at 104.43 million barrels per day, reflecting an increase of 1.82 million barrels per day from May [7]. - Current oil inventories in OECD countries have decreased slightly, but overall global oil stocks remain high, indicating a potential supply surplus in the medium to long term [8][9].

【环球网财经综合报道】8月4日早盘亚洲交易时段，因欧佩克+（OPEC+）同意9月再次大幅提高原油产量，油价有所下滑。 路透社数据显示，布伦特原油期货下跌43美分，跌幅0.62%，报每桶69.24美元；美国西得克萨斯中质原油期货报每桶66.94美元，下跌39美分，跌幅0.58%。 此前，这两个原油期货合约在周五收盘时均下跌约每桶2美元。 欧佩克+在会后声明中表示，经济形势向好、库存处于低位是其做出这一决定的原因。 加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）分析师Helima Croft在一份报告中指出："自4月以来的实际增产幅度小于公布的数字，且增产原油主要来自 沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋。"（闻辉） 欧佩克+于周日达成协议，9月将原油日产量提高54.7万桶，这是其一系列加速增产举措中的最新动作，旨在夺回市场份额。路透社报道指出，此次增产标志 着欧佩克+最大规模的减产份额已全部提前逆转，此外，阿联酋的产量还将单独增加，增幅约为250万桶/日，约占全球需求的2.4%。 ...

Core Insights - The macro uncertainty in the crude oil market has increased in August, with geopolitical tensions easing but tariff negotiations remaining unpredictable [1] - OPEC+ has completed its exit from the production cut plan and is likely to accelerate production in August, leading to significant supply pressure [1] - Despite the supply pressure, the current demand during the consumption peak season is expected to provide support for prices, making it difficult for oil prices to decline significantly [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ has shown a lack of actual motivation to increase production at current price levels, with June's actual production increase falling short of expectations [1] - The short-term outlook suggests that while oil prices may rise due to seasonal demand, the supply pressure will limit the upside potential [1] - The main contract price for crude oil is expected to range around a specific level, with a recommendation to maintain long positions, targeting a resistance level near 520 [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, against the backdrop of the peak season, crude oil demand is slightly lower than expected, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to new macro and geopolitical positives [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $66.15, closing at $65.07, with a high of $66.74, a low of $65.00, a decline of 1.45%, and a trading volume of 21.5 million lots. Brent's opening price was $69.36, closing at $68.39, with a high of $69.86, a low of $68.12, a decline of 1.14%, and a trading volume of 16.67 million lots. SC's opening price was 513.4 yuan/barrel, closing at 505.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 513.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 501 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.53%, and a trading volume of 11.77 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: The JMMC meeting did not make suggestions on OPEC's production policy. Attention should be paid to whether the eight countries will continue to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day. Trump set a new 10 - 12 - day deadline for Russia. If no agreement is reached, secondary sanctions will be imposed on Russian oil. From EIA weekly data, US crude oil consumption in the peak season was slightly lower than expected. Although crude oil inventories declined and refinery operating rates were high, the apparent consumption of gasoline and diesel weakened. The sustainability of high refinery operating rates in the US needs further observation. OPEC+ is likely to continue to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, completing the withdrawal of the 2.2 million - barrel - per - day production cut one year ahead of schedule [6][7] 2. Industry News - The Kuwaiti oil minister is optimistic about the fundamentals of the oil market. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee urged member states to fully comply with quotas. Traders expect OPEC+ to significantly increase production again to complete the current production recovery action [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI spot price, Oman spot price, Brent fund net position, Dtd Brent price, global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI fund position, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory, with different data sources such as wind, CFTC, Bloomberg, and EIA [11][13][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [3][31] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ maintains a stance of increasing production, but the actual release of crude oil production is slow, leading to a weak and fluctuating trend in crude oil prices. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [3][31] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices fluctuated. The SC2509 contract opened at 517 for the week, reached a high of 520, a low of 500, and closed at 512, with a weekly decline of 2.9 or 0.56%. In the short term, it shows a fluctuating pattern [4] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Maintains the Stance of Increasing Production - In June, OPEC's total production increased by 220,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 27.235 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production increased by 173,000 barrels per day to 9.356 million barrels per day, and the UAE's production increased by 83,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day [6] - On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC+ has increased production for five consecutive months, with a cumulative recovery of 1.918 million barrels per day, and there is still 282,000 barrels per day left to reach the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target [6] - Next weekend, OPEC+减产 countries will decide on the crude oil quota for September. It is likely that they will complete the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase plan of 300,000 barrels per day in September. The actual incremental production in April, May, and June was lower than the plan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent actual production growth [3][7][31] 2.2 Russia: Gradually Implementing Production Cuts, Pay Attention to the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). According to IEA data, last month, Russia's daily crude oil loading volume was stable at 4.68 million barrels, while the daily export volume of refined oil decreased by 110,000 barrels to 2.55 million barrels [8] - In June, Russia's crude oil and refined oil export volumes were at an abnormally low level, the lowest in the same period in five years. From 2024 to 2025, Russia's export volume showed a downward trend, raising questions about Russia's ability to maintain upstream production capacity [8] - The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK lowered the price cap of Russian oil to $47.60 per barrel starting from September 2. As of July 6, 2025, the average daily export volume of Russian seaborne crude oil in the four - week period decreased by 3% compared with the previous four weeks, indicating a continuous weakness in Russian crude oil exports [8] 2.3 United States: Stable Production - As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the U.S. crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the number of active rigs in the U.S. was 415, a decrease of 7 compared with the previous week, and the number of fracturing fleets was 168, a decrease of 6 compared with the previous week [9] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted that the U.S. crude oil production will decrease to about 13.37 million barrels per day next year, down from about 13.42 million barrels per day this year [9] 2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Increment - IEA's June monthly report: It is expected that global production capacity will increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. The global oil supply is expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025. The supply growth forecast of non - OPEC+ countries in 2025 was lowered from 1.5 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and it is expected that the supply growth of non - OPEC+ countries will reach 920,000 barrels per day by 2026 [16] - IEA's July monthly report: This year's global oil supply is expected to increase by 300,000 barrels per day compared with the previous forecast, reaching 2.1 million barrels per day [16] - OPEC stated that in 2025, the supply of countries outside OPEC+ will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day, lower than last month's forecast of 900,000 barrels per day [16] 2.5 Inventory: Decrease - According to OPEC's monthly report, preliminary data showed that as of April 2025, the commercial inventory of OECD's crude oil and liquids was 2.729 billion barrels, a decrease of 94.42 million barrels compared with the same period last year [17] - As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the total U.S. crude oil inventory was 821 million barrels, a decrease of 3.369 million barrels (- 0.41%) compared with the previous week; the strategic crude oil inventory was 403 million barrels, a decrease of 200,000 barrels (- 0.05%) compared with the previous week; the commercial crude oil inventory was 419 million barrels, a decrease of 3.169 million barrels (- 0.75%) compared with the previous week; the crude oil inventory in the Cushing area was 21.863 million barrels, an increase of 455,000 barrels (+2.13%) compared with the previous week [17] 2.6 Consumption: Weak - OPEC's forecast of global oil demand growth remains basically unchanged, maintaining the expected growth of 1.29 million barrels per day in 2025. The IEA report showed that the recent oil demand has slowed down significantly, and the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 704,000 barrels per day, and the average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 was lowered to 722,000 barrels per day [21] - As of June 27, the U.S. refined oil processing fee was $346 per ton, while the processing fee of Asian refineries was low at $170 per ton. In the week of July 24, the average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 313.57 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.79% [22] - In April, the operating rate of U.S. refineries was 88.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; the operating rate of European refineries was 81.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10%. As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the crude oil processing volume of U.S. refineries was 16.936 million barrels per day, an increase of 87,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of U.S. refineries was 95.50%, an increase of 1.6% compared with the previous week. As of July 24, 2025, the operating rate of major refineries in China was 81.21%, the same as the previous week. As of July 23, 2025, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries was 50.04%, an increase of 0.88% compared with the previous week [26] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Next weekend, OPEC+减产 countries will decide on the crude oil quota for September. It is likely that they will complete the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase plan of 300,000 barrels per day in September. The actual incremental production in April, May, and June was lower than the plan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent actual production growth. If the production returns to the full - quota level, there will still be pressure on crude oil prices. Overall, OPEC+ maintains the stance of increasing production, the actual release of crude oil production is slow, and the crude oil price shows a weak and fluctuating trend. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [3][31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that oil prices are currently experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production decisions, and seasonal demand factors [1][9][10] - Oil prices have shown a significant rebound from $64 to over $78 in a short period, but have since stabilized in a narrow range of $64-$69 for nearly a month [1][3] - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August, which exceeds market expectations and marks a new phase in global oil supply dynamics [7][8] Group 2 - Seasonal demand is providing short-term support for oil prices, particularly due to tight diesel supply and increased agricultural and travel-related consumption during summer [3][10] - The EU has approved a new round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on oil product imports, but the market response has been muted, suggesting skepticism about the effectiveness of these measures [5][6] - There are discrepancies in reported production increases from OPEC+, with significant differences in estimates from various sources, indicating potential challenges in accurately assessing supply impacts [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, but uncertainties remain in the post - ceasefire situation [1] - The market has factored in OPEC+'s accelerated production increase, and the IEA has raised the forecast of global crude oil surplus in 2025, yet the market is tight during the peak season [1] - Considering the peak consumption season and potential threats to Russian oil supply, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term [1] Summary by Related Content Strategy Analysis - Suggest a strategy of buying on dips [1] - The retaliatory action by Iran and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel have cooled down geopolitical risks, but issues such as the cease - fire implementation, Iran's nuclear materials, and US sanctions on Iran's oil exports need attention [1] - Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak, with US crude oil inventories at a low level, but overall oil product inventories have increased [1] - OPEC+ will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, and is discussing a pause in further production increases from October [1] - OPEC has lowered the global oil demand forecast for the next four years, indicating less optimism about future demand [1] - Trump has postponed the tariff negotiation deadline to August 1st, and attention should be paid to US trade negotiations [1] - The US sanctions on Russia pose a threat to Russian oil supply, and combined with the peak season in the downstream, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2508 fell 0.08% to 516.8 yuan/ton, with a low of 509.1 yuan/ton and a high of 520.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2032 to 12,929 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA has lowered the forecast of US crude oil production in 2025 by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the forecast of global oil inventory increase in the second half of 2025 [3] - IEA has lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 and 2026 [3] - OPEC has maintained the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 and 2026 [3] - US EIA data shows that crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, while gasoline and refined oil inventories increased more than expected in the week ending July 11 [3] Supply - side and Demand - side - OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day, and production in June 2025 increased by 219,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE [4] - US crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 11 [4] - US crude oil product supply decreased, with gasoline and diesel demand decreasing on a weekly basis [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that crude oil prices are expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term due to rising refining processing rates to meet summer travel and power generation demand, a slowdown in US production growth, and potential further sanctions on Russia. In the medium term, the production increase stance of OPEC+ may lead to an expected increase in crude oil supply. The recommended short - term trading strategy is to go long at low levels [2][28]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices were volatile and slightly bullish. The SC2509 contract opened at 497, reached a high of 513, a low of 490, and closed at 503, with a weekly increase of 5.1 or 1.05% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors - **OPEC**: On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced a production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC+ has increased production for five consecutive months, with a cumulative production recovery of 1.918 million barrels per day, and 282,000 barrels per day short of the 2.2 million barrels per day target. The IEA increased its forecast of global oil supply this year by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and Saudi Arabia shows signs of accelerating production release, resulting in continuous supply pressure [5]. - **Russia**: In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In June, Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports were at abnormally low levels, and its refined oil exports dropped to an eight - month low due to government policies. The decline in exports has raised questions about Russia's ability to maintain upstream production capacity and increased supply - tight sentiment in the European and American markets [6]. - **US**: As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.385 million barrels per day, a decrease of 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The US Energy Information Administration predicts that US crude oil production will decline next year [7]. - **Americas' Production Increase**: The IEA expects global oil production capacity to increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. OPEC says that the supply from non - OPEC+ countries will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day in 2025, lower than last month's forecast [14]. - **Inventory**: In May, global oil inventories surged by 73.9 million barrels to 7.818 billion barrels. As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US crude oil inventories increased, with total inventory rising by 7.308 million barrels (+0.89%), strategic inventory by 238,000 barrels (+0.06%), commercial inventory by 7.07 million barrels (+1.69%), and Cushing area inventory by 464,000 barrels (+2.24%) [15]. - **Consumption**: OPEC's forecast of global oil demand growth remains basically unchanged, while the IEA has lowered its average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 704,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 722,000 barrels per day. As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US refinery crude processing volume decreased, and refinery operating rates declined. Refinery processing fees showed different trends in different regions, and refinery operating rates were at a low level in some areas [18][21][23]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the short term, rising refining processing rates, a slowdown in US production growth, and potential sanctions on Russia provide support for crude oil prices. In the medium term, the production increase stance of OPEC+ may lead to an increase in supply. The recommended short - term trading strategy is to go long at low levels [28].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Report date: July 14, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Market Data Price Changes from July 7 - 11, 2025 - WTI increased by $1.88, BRENT by $1.72, and DUBAI by $0.97 [3] - SC decreased by 8.60, OMAN increased by $0.62 [3] - Japan naphtha CFR decreased by 19.40, Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by 0.65 [3][18] Other Market Indicators - BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased by 0.12, WTI - BRENT decreased by 0.16 [3] - SC - BRT decreased by 2.89, SC - WTI decreased by 3.05 [3] - Domestic gasoline decreased by 30.00, domestic gasoline - BRT decreased by 130.00 [3] Group 3: Daily News - Kazakhstan plans to maintain current oil production levels until the end of the year [3] - A Gaza cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas may be reached in one or two weeks [4] - UAE Energy Minister is not worried about oil market oversupply and sees no increase in oil product inventories [4] - OPEC + is discussing pausing production increases from October and entering a waiting period [4][6] - Saudi Arabia's crude exports to China in June reached the highest level since 2023, with about 1.57 million barrels per day [4] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals US Data (Week ending July 4) - US crude exports increased by 45.2万桶/日 to 275.7万桶/日 [5] - US domestic crude production decreased by 4.8万桶 to 1338.5万桶/日 [5] - Commercial crude inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 707.0万桶 to 426 million barrels, a 1.69% increase [5] - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 23.8万桶 to 403 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [5] - US commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 90.6万桶/日 to 601.3万桶/日 [5] - EIA gasoline inventory was - 265.8万桶, against an expected - 148.6万桶 [5] - EIA refined oil inventory was - 82.5万桶, against an expected - 31.4万桶 [5] China Data - Main refinery operating rate increased, Shandong local refinery operating rate decreased [5] - China's gasoline and diesel production both increased, with main refineries up and independent refineries down [5] - Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week [5] - Main refinery comprehensive profit rebounded, local refinery comprehensive profit improved [5] Group 5: Weekly View - Crude oil prices fluctuated this week, and the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets oscillated at high levels [6] - The US plans to impose new tariffs on over 20 countries from August 1, and other trading partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs [6] - OPEC + is discussing pausing production increases from October after restoring 2.2 million barrels of supply in September, and then considering restoring another 1.66 million barrels of production later [6] - Global oil inventories accumulated this week, with a significant increase in US crude inventories during the week of July 4 [6] - US oil drilling rigs decreased by 1, and fracturing operations rebounded during the week ending July 11 [6] - Refinery profits in Europe and the US strengthened this week, and the near - month spread of European diesel soared [6] - The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China are neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation of gasoline and diesel in China and a decline in refinery profits [6] - During the peak refinery operation season, the monthly spreads of crude oil are expected to remain high - level oscillating, with WTI and Brent stronger than the Dubai market [6] - Crude oil prices face downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies, and OPEC + pausing production increases in the fourth quarter will not change the situation [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" ended support for solar and wind energy on July 4, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, and eight member countries had already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump indicated that a Gaza agreement might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on relevant Iraqi enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories remained flat this week. US commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, while Cushing inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs as of July 4 declined rapidly, and the US fundamentals remained relatively tight. This week, global refinery profits rebounded, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The monthly spread of crude oil is expected to remain in high - level oscillations. The WTI and Brent markets are stronger than the Dubai market, showing a market divergence. The absolute price is under downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [5]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily News - US President Trump stated on social media that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and the date would not change. He might send a tax - levying letter to the EU in the next two days. At a cabinet meeting, Trump said he was still planning to impose tariffs on specific industries including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals, with a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals [3]. - The arrival of crude oil at Shandong refineries continued to decline but remained higher than the same period last year. - Sources said that OPEC+ might approve another production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September at its August 3 meeting [3]. - The change in API crude oil inventories in the US for the week ending July 4 was 7.128 million barrels, the largest increase since the week of February 7, 2025 [3]. b. Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week of June 27, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels per day to 2.305 million barrels per day [4]. - EIA report: In the week of June 27, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 200 barrels to 13.433 million barrels per day [4]. - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.845 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.93% increase [4]. - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 20.288 million barrels per day, a 1.12% decrease compared to the same period last year [4]. - EIA report: In the week of June 27, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 239,000 barrels to 402.8 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [4]. - EIA report: In the week of June 27, US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.919 million barrels per day, an increase of 975,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [4]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased. Gasoline and diesel production from major refineries increased, while that from independent refineries decreased. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel at local refineries both increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries improved month - on - month [4]. c. Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" ended support for solar and wind energy on July 4, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, and eight member countries had already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump indicated that a Gaza agreement might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on relevant Iraqi enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories remained flat this week. US commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, while Cushing inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs as of July 4 declined rapidly, and the US fundamentals remained relatively tight. This week, global refinery profits rebounded, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The monthly spread of crude oil is expected to remain in high - level oscillations. The WTI and Brent markets are stronger than the Dubai market, showing a market divergence. The absolute price is under downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [5].