Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new round of production increase plan has pushed crude oil to increase positions and decline again, and polyester has followed. Polyolefins continue to focus on short - selling opportunities [1] - The mid - term supply - demand surplus logic of crude oil always exists, and short - term geopolitical factors focus on the fifth round of US - Iran negotiations on Friday. The next time node driven by mid - term supply surplus is the OPEC+ monthly meeting on June 1st [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The news of OPEC+ discussing large - scale production increase in July pushed crude oil to increase positions and form a long negative line in the afternoon. The mid - term supply - demand surplus logic exists, and there is a tendency for a new Iran nuclear agreement. The short - term geopolitical focus is on the US - Iran fifth - round negotiation on Friday. The next time node driven by mid - term supply surplus is the OPEC+ monthly meeting on June 1st [1] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of crude oil is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a shock. Today, it increased positions and formed a long negative line, and the end of the session accelerated the decline. The short - term may test the previous low. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [1][2] Styrene (EB) - Logic: There is pressure from the decline of crude oil at the cost end. At the supply end, the ethylene plant maintenance is restored, new production capacity is put into operation in the second quarter, and the supply is expected to increase strongly under the current high profit of styrene [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and formed a long negative line. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to yesterday's high [5] PX - Logic: PX profit is at a low level, the device is still in the maintenance period, the downstream PTA start - up rate is increasing, the demand is improving, and the short - term fundamentals are good. However, after the decline of crude oil at the cost end, the cost logic dominates the market [7][10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is in an upward trend. Today, it decreased positions and formed a long negative line with the decline of crude oil. The short - term support refers to the low point on May 13th. Wait for the opportunity to short after breaking the support in the hourly - cycle strategy [10] PTA - Logic: The supply - end devices of PTA have increased, and at the same time, the polyester load and textile start - up rate at the demand end have also increased. The short - term fundamentals have improved, but after the decline of crude oil at the cost end, the cost logic dominates the market [11][14] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA is in an upward trend. Today, it decreased positions and formed a long negative line with the decline of crude oil. The short - term support refers to the low point on May 13th. Wait for the opportunity to short after breaking the support in the hourly - cycle strategy [14] PP - Logic: Last week, the fault shutdown of Hengli's ethylene plant involved 2% of PP production capacity, and the actual impact was limited. After the expectation of demand improvement brought by the Sino - US easing, the actual export profit has narrowed, and the short - term export demand is difficult to have obvious increments. In the future, it will still face the supply pressure brought by the restart of the device and the cost pressure brought by the decline of crude oil [18] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined without changing the downward path. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with the short - term pressure and take - profit referring to yesterday's high [18] Methanol - Logic: The domestic start - up rate decreased slightly month - on - month, the traditional demand fell to the year - on - year low, the port inventory remained stable at a low level, but it is facing the arrival pressure of the increase in Iranian shipments in early May, and the port inventory accumulation expectation is strong [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure of methanol is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined, continuing the downward path. The strategy is to transfer the 15 - minute - level short positions yesterday to the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to the 2285 line [20] Rubber - Logic: The short - term emotional bullishness of Sino - US easing has basically been digested. Currently, tire enterprises have the highest inventory year - on - year, the start - up rate is at a year - on - year low, downstream tires are not subject to equal tariffs, there is no expectation of export demand recovery, and the EU has launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires, involving about 1.2 billion tires. At the supply end, the implementation effect of Thailand's suspension of the opening - cut order is not good, the production areas are gradually opening - cut, and the increment expectation is strong without abnormal weather, still showing a weak supply - demand expectation [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of rubber is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a shock. Today, it fluctuated within the day. Recently, the trading volume at the upper edge of the shock range was insufficient, and it was difficult to break through. The upper pressure still refers to the high point on April 8th. Recently, it is still a narrow - range shock to repair the oversold situation by trading time for space. The hourly - cycle strategy is to short at the upper edge of the range [24] PVC - Logic: The start - up rate is the same as that of previous years, and there is an expectation of an increase in the start - up rate after the maintenance season. The terminal real - estate demand is still insufficient, and the expectation of strong supply and weak demand continues [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of PVC is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined. The short - term pressure still focuses on the 5015 line. The hourly - cycle strategy is to look for the opportunity to short when a reversal pattern appears [27] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The start - up rate of downstream polyester has increased, and the demand has improved. However, after the digestion of the unexpected shutdown of Hengli's ethylene plant last week, the actual involved production capacity is about 6%, but the expected shutdown time is short and the impact is limited. In the future, it will face the supply pressure brought by the large - scale release of ethylene plant production capacity [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of EG is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - term support below refers to the 4315 line. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and hold short positions in the 15 - minute level, with the stop - loss referring to the 4455 line [30] Plastic - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of plastic is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined. The short - term support below refers to the 7100 line. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and hold short positions in the 15 - minute cycle, with the take - profit referring to the 7225 high [31][33] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Last week, the fault shutdown of Hengli's ethylene plant involved about 2% of butadiene production capacity, and the actual impact was limited. After the digestion of emotions, it will face the pressure of increased butadiene supply brought by the large - scale release of ethylene plant production capacity in the future. The butadiene storage capacity is low, and the price is likely to fall sharply after inventory accumulation, putting pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost end [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of synthetic rubber is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. Today, it fluctuated within the day. The short - term support still focuses on the low point on May 13th. The strategy is to hold short positions in the 15 - minute level, with the stop - loss referring to the 12300 line [35][37]

黄金方面： 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前原油市场利多因素匮乏，原油价格偏弱运行将是大概率事件。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情冲高回落且收较长上影线K线，显示上方有一定的压力。指标上看，行情迟迟未能上破62日均线，警惕再度下行风险。 日内关注上方62.68美元一线压力，下方关注60美元一线支撑。 据美联储观察数据显示，美联储六月份维持利率不变的概率是94.7%；7月份维持利率不变的概率是70.3%，9月份维持利率不变的概率为31.3%，累计降息25 个基点的概率为51.6%。美联储年内降息的时间不断推迟，降息的幅度有所下降，短期仍将对金价形成压力。 不过近期地缘方面再起波澜，美国情报部门发现，以色列正在准备袭击伊朗，以总理内塔尼亚胡称将全面控制加沙，对伊朗保留单方面行动权利，倘若冲突 进一步恶化升级，避险情绪的升温短期将为金价提供支撑。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情延续上行且收阳线，显示短期行情较为强势。指标上看，行情上行有效上破20日均线，短期存在进一步走高的机会。日 内关注下方3292美元一线支撑，上方关注3346美元一线压力。 黄金小时图 原油方面： 周三（5月21日）公布美国截至5 ...

5月5日早间，国际原油期货大幅低开，WTI原油跌幅一度扩大至5%，布伦特原油开盘跳水。现货黄金向上触及3250美元/盎司关口，随后 小幅调整。 国际原油期货大幅走低 周一，国际原油期货大幅低开。WTI原油跌幅一度扩大至5%，最低至55.30美元/桶。 截至发稿，布伦特原油跌3.79%，报58.97美元/桶。 消息面上，OPEC+成员国同意6月增产41.1万桶/日。 消息人士表示，OPEC+正准备在10月之前快速增加石油产量，如果成员国的减产情况没有改善，可能会在11月之前取消220万桶/日的自愿 减产。在此之前，OPEC+4月份出人意料地以快于预期的速度提高了产量。 据报道，这一策略由沙特主导，目的是惩罚达不到配额的成员国。6月份的新增产计划在周末达成一致，将4月至6月的总增产量推高至近 100万桶/日。预计7月份将再批准增加41.1桶/日的产量，10月份也可能会进一步增产。 据消息人士透露，在此次会议结束后，沙特阿拉伯暗示未来可能会继续采取类似规模的增产措施。 瑞银分析师Giovanni Staunovo警告称："只要原油出口情况没有显示OPEC+内部的合规情况有所改善，市场就会对这一消息持负面态度。" 高 ...

原油周一开盘大跌5% 据悉欧佩克+将继续加速增产 订阅原油市场资讯 +订阅 金十数据5月5日讯，消息人士表示，欧佩克+正准备在10月之前快速增加石油产量，如果成员国的减产 情况没有改善，可能会在11月之前取消220万桶/日的自愿减产。在此之前，欧佩克+4月份出人意料地以 快于预期的速度提高了产量。据报道，这一策略是由沙特主导的，目的是惩罚达不到配额的成员国。6 月份的新增产计划在周末达成一致，将4月至6月的总增产量推高至近100万桶/日。预计7月份将再批准 增加41.1桶/日的产量，10月份也可能会进一步增产。受此消息影响，WTI原油周一盘初跌幅快速扩大至 5%，布伦特原油跌4.5%。瑞银分析师Giovanni Staunovo警告称："只要原油出口情况没有显示欧佩克 +内部的合规情况有所改善，市场就会对这一消息持负面态度。" ...

沙特6月原油配额设定为936.7万桶/日。 声明显示，OPEC+确认6月将增产41.1万桶/日。 ...

今年以来，大庆油田采油二厂(以下简称采油二厂)时刻践行"大厂要有大担当"的理念，将一切力量集中 到增产原油这个中心上来，抓关键、破困局、促上产，全力推进管理再精细、运行再提速、措施再提 效。 作为一家具有61年发展历史的老厂，采油二厂尽管面临着两驱开采对象差、含水控制难度大、运行计划 持续攀升等多重困难，但干部员工齐心协力、众志成城，铆足干劲夺油，分秒必争抢产，奋力打赢产 量"翻身仗"。一季度，该厂取得了原油产量超计划0.28万吨的佳绩。 管理再精细 深挖潜力攻难关 采油二厂充分发挥本部的龙头作用，进一步深化干部一线工作法；加大工作协调和服务基层力度，对基 层单位提出的问题实行"首问负责、限期督办"制，做到指挥工作在一线、掌握情况在一线、解决问题在 一线，并将所包单位生产任务完成情况与绩效考核挂钩，形成产量共担、责任共担、生产共抓的良性互 动。 采油二厂油田管理部聚焦精准调整挖潜，组织生产管理、技术服务人员一线下沉，直插问题井站，逐井 分析矛盾，逐井摸排潜力，逐项论证对策，实现了318口问题井、9座生产波动站场调整全覆盖。 "针对产量波动情况，我们常态化抓产督导，强化外输液、油、气量波动监控，实施滚动检查和驻 ...