[Table_Info1] 有色金属 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-05-12 $$i k\neq\pm i k$$ 上次评级:优于大势 [Table_PicQuote] 历史收益率曲线 [Table_Trend] 涨跌幅（%） 1M 3M 12M 绝对收益 8% 1% -2% 相对收益 4% 2% -7% [Table_Market] 行业数据 成分股数量（只） 136 总市值（亿） 24568 流通市值（亿） 13349 市盈率（倍） 14.56 市净率（倍） 2.13 成分股总营收（亿） 31776 成分股总净利润（亿） 1882 成分股资产负债率（%） 50.80 [Table_Report] 相关报告 《黄金：情绪缓和，现实恶化，继续看多金价》 --20250506 《黄金：牛市未尽》 --20250428 《黄金：新世界秩序下的宠儿》 --20250421 《东北有色周报：关税反复+财政担忧+联储观 望，金价继续冲高》 --20250414 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：曾智勤 执业证书编号：S0550520110002 021-20363251 zengzq@nesc ...

Group 1 - US stock market opened higher but subsequently dropped [1][2] - Notable performance from Tesla, which saw a nearly 7% increase in stock price, with reports of Elon Musk's AI startup XAI potentially raising new funding at a valuation of $120 billion [4] - Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index opened with approximately 1% gain but later fell, with mixed performances among Chinese concept stocks [7] Group 2 - European markets showed positive movement with major indices in the UK, France, and Germany rising [9] - Gold prices continued to rise, increasing by nearly 1% [9] Group 3 - Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about tariffs leading to economic slowdown and higher unemployment rates, indicating upward risks for inflation and unemployment [11] - President Trump commented on the US economy, claiming costs are down and there is no inflation, urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates for economic stimulation [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams emphasizes that uncertainty will continue to be a defining characteristic of monetary policy in the foreseeable future due to structural changes in the global economic environment [1] Group 1 - Williams highlights the current high level of uncertainty and its persistence in the near term [1] - He attributes this uncertainty to structural changes such as artificial intelligence, de-globalization, and innovations in the financial system [1] - Williams refrains from commenting on the economic outlook or specific monetary policy actions [1] Group 2 - The independence of central banks is noted as a factor that can lead to better outcomes in the current uncertain environment [1]

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 在美国政府所谓"对等关税"的冲击下，全球化格局迎来重构。 据央视新闻报道，世界贸易组织4月发布的报告显示，美国关税政策导致全球贸易前景严重恶化。在目 前关税形势下，2025年全球货物贸易量预计将下降0.2%。 保德信专题研究部总监Jakob Wilhelmus近日在接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时表示，美国近期宣布的大 范围关税政策正在重塑全球供应链及贸易格局，这些时刻反复的关税政策带来了巨大的不确定性。尽管 目前各国与美国的贸易存在不确定性，但比较优势的经济因素在全球范围内依然占上风，尚未看到全球 广泛转向征收关税的趋势。 近日保德信发布的《全球化新时代》报告（以下简称"报告"）显示，全球化进程并未被打断，而是被划 分为两条截然不同的轨道：主导了大部分行业和贸易模式并持续高速发展的轨道，以及覆盖行业较少但 对经济发展举足轻重的急剧去全球化轨道。 谈到中国时，Jakob Wilhelmus认为，DeepSeek的崛起以及在半导体领域的发展凸显了中国从制造业到尖 端技术的惊人进步。如今，中国的电动汽车不再是跟随美国或欧洲汽车制造商的步伐，其技术已成为其 他地区试图追赶的趋势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of globalization from 1.0 to 3.0, highlighting the impact of MAGAism and the rise of protectionism, leading to a potential collapse of the current global trade system and the emergence of a new, more inclusive globalization model driven by digital technology and emerging economies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Globalization 1.0 - Globalization 1.0 was established post-World War II, primarily led by the United States, focusing on rebuilding economies through international cooperation and the establishment of organizations like the IMF and World Bank [7][8]. - The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was signed in 1947, leading to a significant reduction in global tariff levels, with an average annual trade growth rate of 7.8% from 1950 to 1973 [7][8]. - The period was characterized by a division between capitalist and socialist blocs, resulting in a structured but not fully globalized trade system [9]. Group 2: Globalization 2.0 - Globalization 2.0 began after the Cold War, marked by the establishment of the WTO in 1995, which facilitated a true global economic integration, particularly between the U.S. and China [11][12]. - The period saw rapid trade liberalization, with global tariffs dropping from 6.2% in 1991 to 3.2% in 2006, and significant growth in international investment [12][13]. - The rise of emerging economies, particularly China and India, began to reshape the global economic landscape, contributing to a multi-polar world [15]. Group 3: MAGAism and Its Impact - MAGAism has led to a rise in protectionist policies in the U.S., which may provide short-term benefits to certain industries but could disrupt global supply chains and increase consumer costs in the long run [20][21]. - The political polarization in the U.S. has intensified, with MAGAism exacerbating divisions between different social and economic groups, impacting political stability and governance [21][22]. - The global implications of MAGAism include a decline in U.S. leadership in international affairs and a shift towards a more fragmented global trade environment [22][23]. Group 4: Transition to Globalization 3.0 - The article posits that the world is transitioning towards Globalization 3.0, characterized by a more inclusive and technology-driven economic model, despite the challenges posed by de-globalization and protectionism [26][27]. - Emerging economies are advocating for a more open and cooperative global economic system, as seen in initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP [26]. - The future of globalization is seen as an inevitable trend, with the potential for a new economic order that is less dominated by major powers and more reliant on digital technologies [27].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff issues between the U.S. and other countries, particularly China, are leading to a significant reduction in trade dependencies, which is becoming a necessary reality for many exporters and importers [2][3]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Dependencies - Many exporters to the U.S. and importers from the U.S. are recognizing the need to drastically reduce trade ties with the U.S. due to the persistent nature of trade issues, regardless of tariff changes [2]. - There is a growing consensus among countries that reducing interdependence with the U.S. is essential, as they navigate trade, capital market, geopolitical, and military relationships [2]. Group 2: Economic Imbalances and Sustainability - The current global economic situation is characterized by unsustainable consumption patterns in the U.S., which is the largest consumer of manufactured goods and the largest producer of debt assets [3]. - The significant trade and capital imbalances are creating unsustainable conditions, necessitating a reduction in these imbalances to avoid severe risks [3]. Group 3: Global Order and Political Challenges - The world is on the brink of a collapse in monetary order, domestic politics, and international relations, driven by unsustainable fundamentals that are measurable and evident [4]. - Historical parallels can be drawn from past events, indicating that the current chaos is a contemporary version of how monetary, political, and geopolitical orders evolve [4]. Group 4: Strategic Planning and Solutions - A calm, analytical, and coordinated approach is essential to address the challenges of imbalances and self-sufficiency, aiming for a "perfect" deleveraging and rebalancing [5]. - There is a proposed "three-part, 3% solution" to tackle U.S. government debt issues, which could yield better outcomes than the current trajectory [5].

然而，美国重建产业链的时间可能要以年为单位计算，但是产生的物价压力、衰退风险却是以月来计算 的，市场反应更是以日计算。特朗普在贸易政策上的倒行逆施，直接伤到了美元根基，美元失去了全球 化支撑的贸易之锚、信用之锚。这是美元资产近期极度动荡的根本原因。 布雷顿森林体系坍塌后，美国抛弃了以黄金作锚定的承诺。美元依靠在全球贸易中的绝对垄断，维持着 全球交易货币、储蓄手段的尊崇地位。美元交易在全球外汇交易中占比88%，全世界外债发行中70%是 美元债，各国外汇储备里美元占比59%，世界外贸中大约54%用美元报价，银行间同业拆借中美元占比 47%。 世界上暂时还没有一个可以取代美元的替代货币，所以美元的主导地位并非一时半会可以消失。但是美 元软实力毫无疑问被弱化，美元信用遭到质疑，这是本轮美元急跌的逻辑。笔者承认，今年以来对美元 走势看错了，最主要的原因是没有料到特朗普政府会那么打关税战，完全置美元信誉于不顾。 从长期和结构上看，"去全球化"势必带来"去美元化"。美元成为世界货币的一个重要原因，正是长期的 贸易逆差，使得巨额美元流向海外，海外美元再通过投资美债、美股回流到美国。IMF估计，海外投资 者总共持有大约22万亿 ...

文 | Ray Dalio 来源 | 地平线全球策略 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 Ray Dalio 近日发文：不要误以为当前正在发生的一切主要只是关于关税的问题。 当前，市场对新一轮关税的宣布及其对经济和市场的重大影响给予了高度关注，这是完全合 理的。但与此同时，人们几乎没有注意到导致这些措施出台的根本原因——以及未来可能到 来的更大规模的冲击。别误会，这些关税确实是重要的事件，但多数人忽略了正在推动一切 （包括关税本身）的更深层次力量。 在我最新的文章（本文）中，我讨论了一个我认为更值得高度关注的问题： 我们正在经历一场典型的全球货币、政治与地缘秩序的系统性瓦解。这类瓦解每一代人只会 遇到一次，但在历史上，它在类似不可持续的条件下曾多次上演。 这正是自给自足成为优先目标的战争式博弈的表现。 此时此刻，人们理所应当地将大量注意力集中在新宣布的关税及其对市场和经济的巨大影响 上，但对促使这些措施出台的深层背景、以及可能即将到来的更大规模冲击，却几乎无人关 注。 不要误会，这些关税公告确实是重大事件，而我们都知道特朗普总统是促成它们的直接推 手，但大多数人忽视了那些让他当选总统、以及最终推动关税出台 ...

以下文章来源于财经三分钟 ，作者杨瑞 财经三分钟 . 4 亿中产财经资讯平台，专注深度财经商业报道。由财经媒体人杨瑞团队执笔，出品《广州租售同 权》、《北京学区房多校划片》、《国家抢占人工智能制高点》等多篇千万级刷屏文章。 作者：杨瑞 来源： 财经三分钟（ID： qgq1818 ） 金价狂飙，周大福要扛不住了。 10月23日全球金价已经飙升到2740美元/盎司左右，按照7的汇率换成国内价格是676元/克左右。 高昂的价格让消费者对黄金产品望而却步，黄金首饰消费开始日渐冷却。 随即，周大福等金店调整经营策略，企图通过大规模关店来减少进一步的亏损。 一边是持续上涨火热的金价，另一边是金店凋零，消费者更是钱包空空买不起黄金。 2024年的黄金市场正在上演魔幻的一幕。 01 撑不住的周大福， 选择大规模关店 今年国际金价已经累计暴涨超30%，黄金饰品的价格也因此水涨船高。 即便是平时喜欢买金首饰的消费者，在今年的黄金消费上也变得更加谨慎。 另一边，周大福的黄金挂牌价格已经达到了806元/克，和基础金价相比足足多了130元。 消费者不买黄金了，成为了金店们的利润大幅下降的原因之一。 最近周大福的财报预计2025上半财年 ...