丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 新增专项债即将放量 ——政府债周报（6/22） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 6 月 23 日-6 月 29 日地方债披露发行 5856.5 亿元。其中新增债 4583.2 亿元（新增一般债 515.2 亿元，新增专项债 4068.0 亿元），再融资债 1273.2 亿元（再融资一般债 586.8 亿元，再融资 专项债 686.4 亿元）。 6 月 16 日-6 月 22 日地方债共发行 2617.5 亿元。其中新增债 697.2 亿元（新增一般债 272.5 亿元，新增专项债 424.8 亿元），再融资债 1920.3 亿元（再融资一般债 630.5 亿元，再融资专 项债 1289.8 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 新增专项债即将放量 2] ——政府债 ...

内蒙古发行10年期一般债地方债，规模161.2912亿元，发行利率1.7700%，边际倍数4.19倍，倍数预期 1.77。 ...

Overall Issuance Situation - In May 2025, the issuance volume of local government bonds reached 779.4 billion yuan, an increase of 86.2 billion yuan month-on-month but a decrease of 124.2 billion yuan year-on-year [5][6] - The net financing amount for May was 554.6 billion yuan, up by 26.5 billion yuan from the previous month but down by 80.3 billion yuan compared to the same month last year [5][6] - The issuance of new special bonds was significant, totaling 443.2 billion yuan, which is a month-on-month increase of 213 billion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 4.8 billion yuan [5][6] Issuance Rates - The weighted average issuance rate for local government bonds in May decreased to 1.87%, down by 5.08 basis points from the previous month [15][17] - The issuance rates for various maturities showed a downward trend, with the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year rates decreasing by 0.53, 13.00, and 4.02 basis points respectively [15][17] Issuance Spread - The issuance spread of local government bonds narrowed compared to national treasury yields, with most maturities experiencing a decrease in spread [17][19] - The highest spreads were observed in Guangxi and Inner Mongolia, at 21.24 and 19.94 basis points respectively [17][19] Issuance Maturity - The average issuance maturity for local government bonds in May was 14.16 years, which is a reduction of 1.39 years from the previous month [20][23] - The average maturities for new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds were shortened by 1.27 years, 1.49 years, and 3.77 years respectively [20][23] Fund Utilization - The primary focus for the utilization of newly issued special bonds remains in infrastructure, with 52.39% of the funds directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, and public services [23][26] - In May, the funds allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure decreased by 4.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [23][26] Regional Issuance - A total of 27 provinces and municipalities issued local government bonds in May, with Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Zhejiang leading in issuance scale [2][28] - Cumulatively, from January to May, Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, and Guangdong had the highest issuance volumes, collectively accounting for 32.0% of the total issuance [2][28]

湖北发行7年期一般债地方债，规模5.9239亿元，发行利率1.6300%，边际倍数1.81倍，倍数预期2.34。 ...

重庆发行7年期一般债地方债，规模52.1406亿元，发行利率1.6300%，边际倍数1.82倍，倍数预期2.05。 ...

重庆发行10年期其他专项地方债，规模63.0000亿元，发行利率1.6900%，边际倍数1.13倍，倍数预期 2.00。 ...

黑龙江发行10年期一般债地方债，规模137.2604亿元，发行利率1.6900%，边际倍数1.73倍，倍数预期 1.72。 ...

北京发行3年期一般债地方债，规模7.2000亿元，发行利率1.4800%，边际倍数3.49倍，倍数预期1.49； 北京发行5年期一般债地方债，规模33.1550亿元，发行利率1.5900%，边际倍数3.83倍，倍数预期1.60； 北京发行1年期普通专项地方债，规模7.7201亿元，发行利率1.4600%，边际倍数6.94倍，倍数预期 1.47。 北京发行7年期一般债地方债，规模114.9181亿元，发行利率1.6400%，边际倍数1.79倍，倍数预期 1.65； ...

广西发行20年期其他专项地方债，规模95.2700亿元，发行利率2.0700%，边际倍数9.03倍，倍数预期 2.05； 广西发行7年期一般债地方债，规模11.3400亿元，发行利率1.6500%，边际倍数1.14倍，倍数预期1.65。 广西发行7年期一般债地方债，规模27.3000亿元，发行利率1.6400%，边际倍数1.12倍，倍数预期1.65； ...

Core Insights - Local government bond issuance is accelerating, with a total of approximately 45,322 billion yuan issued as of June 15, representing a 55% increase compared to 29,171 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [1] - The increase in bond issuance indicates a more proactive fiscal policy aimed at optimizing debt structure and enhancing effective investment [1] Group 1: Local Government Bonds - The issuance of new special bonds reached 16,479 billion yuan, accounting for about 36% of total local bond issuance, which is a 39% increase from 11,871 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - The issuance of replacement bonds has also progressed rapidly, with approximately 16,835 billion yuan issued, achieving about 84% of the 20,000 billion yuan quota for the year [2] - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has surpassed 1,000 billion yuan, contributing to stabilizing the real estate market [2][3] Group 2: Economic Impact - The funds from new special bonds and infrastructure investments are expected to attract significant social capital, driving effective investment and promoting related industry development [2] - The acceleration of replacement bond issuance is expected to alleviate local government debt risks and repayment pressures, leading to a more stable fiscal and economic environment [2] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on investment construction, land acquisition, and settling local government debts [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The second quarter is expected to see a high volume of local bond issuance, with June alone projected to reach around 10,000 billion yuan, including 5,364 billion yuan in new bonds [3] - The overall pace of local bond issuance is anticipated to accelerate, with a focus on infrastructure projects to stabilize economic growth and support related industries [3] - Local bonds are becoming a crucial tool for ensuring moderate investment growth and stabilizing local economic growth rates, with continued high issuance expected in the second half of the year [3]