Group 1 - Inner Mongolia issued 15-year special local bonds with a scale of 155 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 1.97% [1] - The marginal multiple for the 15-year bonds was 3.17 times, with an expected multiple of 1.96 [1] - Inner Mongolia also issued 20-year special local bonds for rail transit with a scale of 10 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.03% [1] Group 2 - The marginal multiple for the 20-year rail transit bonds was 10.33 times, with an expected multiple of 2.03 [1]

晨报 成材 成材：唐山限产消息带动钢价反弹 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 重要声明： 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 2 日 逻辑：2025 年上半年，各地发行地方债规模约 54902 亿元，与 2024 年同期的 34928 亿元相比，增长约 57.2%。针对"唐山 7 月 4 日-15 日将 减排限产"的消息。Mysteel 对唐山全流程钢企进行了跟踪调研，厂家表 示已接到通知，受空气质量影响，基本在延续 6 月下旬的管控，现烧结限 产 30%，部分高炉未满产状态，整体对产量影响有限。6 月 23 日-6 月 29 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成交（签约）面积总计 310.82 万平方米， 环比增长 50.4%，同比下降 24.3%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日午后震 ...

Group 1 - Local government bond issuance has significantly increased in the first half of this year, with a total issuance of approximately 54,902 billion yuan, representing a growth of about 57.2% compared to 34,928 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - The issuance of new special bonds has also accelerated, with a total of approximately 21,607 billion yuan issued in the first half, a 44.7% increase from 14,935 billion yuan in the previous year [1][3] - The overall scale of local bond issuance in the first half has reached a historical high, providing strong financial support for economic development [1] Group 2 - The government work report for this year has set a target for local government special bonds at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on investment construction, land acquisition, and settling local government debts [3] - The expansion of special bond issuance is aimed at bolstering infrastructure investment, which is crucial for sustainable economic growth, with significant implications for stabilizing growth, promoting investment, and benefiting people's livelihoods [3] - The issuance pace of local bonds is expected to accelerate in the third quarter, with an anticipated issuance of nearly 20,000 billion yuan in a single quarter, reflecting a trend of front-loading special bond issuance [4]

Group 1 - Inner Mongolia issued a 10-year general local government bond with a scale of 6.88784 billion [1] - The issuance interest rate is set at 1.7500% [1] - The marginal multiple was recorded at 1.93 times, with an expected multiple of 1.99 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of June 29, 2025, and predicts the issuance plan for the third quarter of 2025. It shows that the issuance volume and net financing of local government bonds in the primary market have increased, the proportion of long - term issuance has risen, and the issuance spread has widened. In the secondary market, the secondary spreads of 3Y, 15Y, and 30Y local government bonds are advantageous, and the turnover rates of local government bonds in Fujian, Sichuan, and Shandong are relatively high. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 641.6 billion yuan, with a repayment of 81.3 billion yuan and a net financing of 560.4 billion yuan. The issuance volume and net financing increased [1]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance proportion of 10Y local government bonds was the highest this week (27%), and the proportion of 10Y and above issuance was 73%, showing an increase compared with last week. The issuance proportion of 7Y local government bonds decreased significantly, with a month - on - month decrease of about 10 percentage points [1][12]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds issued a total of 5.97 billion yuan. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds to replace hidden debts, with a total of 179.59 billion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Yunnan plan to issue 25.11 billion yuan, 11.48 billion yuan, 11.13 billion yuan, and 8.78 billion yuan respectively [15][16]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 11.9bp, which widened compared with last week. The weighted average issuance spread of 30Y local government bonds was the highest, reaching 18.8bp. Except for the 5Y, 10Y, and 20Y local government bonds, the weighted average issuance spreads of other terms narrowed [1][24]. - **Raised Funds Allocation**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of newly - added special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (30%), transportation infrastructure (20%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 10.9% compared with 2024, while the proportion of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 6.9% [2][28]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 30 regions have disclosed the local government bond issuance plan for the third quarter of 2025, with a total of 2.56 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in July is 128.1 billion yuan. In addition, the planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter is 161.23 billion yuan and 94.7 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 6.14 billion yuan, with a repayment of 5.05 billion yuan and a net financing of 1.09 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 54.94 billion yuan [3][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3Y, 15Y, and 30Y local government bonds were advantageous, and the widening amplitudes of the secondary spreads of 3Y and 30Y local government bonds were relatively large. The secondary spreads of 3Y, 15Y, and 30Y local government bonds were relatively high, reaching 17.2bp, 18.5bp, and 18.3bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past three years, the historical quantile of the secondary spread of 30Y local government bonds was relatively high, reaching 77%. Regionally, the secondary spreads of local government bonds over 20Y in various types of regions were relatively high, and the secondary spreads of 10 - 20Y local government bonds in medium - level regions were also relatively high [5][35]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds basically remained at the same level as last week. The turnover rates of local government bonds in Fujian, Sichuan, and Shandong were relatively high. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 520.6 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.01%. Among them, the trading volumes of local government bonds in Shandong and Jiangsu were large, reaching 5.05 billion yuan and 4.86 billion yuan respectively; the turnover rates in Fujian, Sichuan, Shandong and other places were all higher than 1.6% [5][39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that local government bond issuance has slowed down in the first half of the year, with a total issuance of approximately 5.36 trillion yuan, and a net issuance of about 2.48 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of over 4 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1][2] - Analysts expect that the issuance of local government bonds will accelerate in the third quarter, as the pace of replacement bond issuance has been notably advanced [1][2][6] - The issuance of special bonds for refinancing has begun to speed up, with 33 regions disclosing plans to issue refinancing special bonds totaling nearly 1.8 trillion yuan, aimed at replacing hidden debts [5][6] Group 2 - The government bond supply has shown significant growth compared to last year, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1 trillion yuan in issuance and a net financing increase of 4.4 trillion yuan, providing substantial support for social financing [2] - As of June 27, the total issuance volume of local bonds in June reached over 1 trillion yuan, with a net issuance of 7028.51 billion yuan, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy [6] - The 2025 plan for local bond issuance in the third quarter is estimated at 21.83 trillion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 12.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase compared to the previous year [6][8]

Group 1 - Guangdong issued 10-year general local bonds with a scale of 56.5559 billion, at an issuance rate of 1.7500%, with a marginal multiple of 54.17 times, exceeding the expected multiple of 1.72 [1] - Guangdong issued 7-year other special local bonds with a scale of 78.5000 billion, at an issuance rate of 1.6400%, with a marginal multiple of 1.30 times, slightly below the expected multiple of 1.65 [1]

Group 1 - Guangdong issued 10-year special local bonds with a scale of 30.621 billion, an issuance rate of 1.7500%, and a marginal multiple of 3.51 times, exceeding the expected multiple of 1.73 [1] - Guangdong issued 20-year special local bonds with a scale of 45.7627 billion, an issuance rate of 2.0300%, and a marginal multiple of 1.33 times, below the expected multiple of 1.98 [1]

Group 1 - Guangdong issued 10-year general local bonds with a total scale of 18.96442 billion, at an issuance rate of 1.7500%, with a marginal multiple of 3.65 times, exceeding the expected multiple of 1.72 [1] - Guangdong issued another 10-year general local bonds with a total scale of 7.34279 billion, also at an issuance rate of 1.7500%, achieving a marginal multiple of 5.63 times, again surpassing the expected multiple of 1.72 [1] - Guangdong issued 20-year ordinary special local bonds with a total scale of 7.64973 billion, at an issuance rate of 2.0300%, with a marginal multiple of 1.16 times, below the expected multiple of 2.00 [1] - Guangdong issued an additional 20-year ordinary special local bond with a total scale of 892.32 million, at an issuance rate of 2.0300%, achieving a marginal multiple of 1.22 times, slightly below the expected multiple of 1.99 [1]

黑龙江发行3年期乡村专项地方债，规模1.2300亿元，发行利率1.4500%，边际倍数3.50倍，倍数预期 1.46。 ...