Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company's H1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 55.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13% [6]. - The shipbuilding segment is showing gradual profit release, with a total profit increase of 98% year-on-year in H1 2025. The company has a strong order backlog of approximately 3.3 billion USD, ensuring revenue visibility [6]. - The diesel generator business is expected to benefit from demand growth due to AIDC expansion, highlighting the business's resilience and potential for profit growth [6]. - The company has a diversified business model and a global operational network, which helps mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations. The apparel segment saw a 49% year-on-year increase in exports in H1 2025 [6]. - The dividend yield is projected to be around 4.3% for 2025, providing a competitive edge [6]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards, with net profit estimates of 1.35 billion, 1.48 billion, and 1.61 billion yuan respectively, reflecting improved profitability in the shipbuilding sector [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 117.174 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 1.6% expected in 2025. Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 1.349 billion yuan, representing a 17.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 7.4% in 2025 to 7.9% by 2027, indicating better cost management and pricing power [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 16.2% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity [2]. Market Data - As of July 17, 2025, the company's closing price was 10.03 yuan, with a market capitalization of 13.107 billion yuan. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 11 in 2024 to 8 by 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the increasing prevalence of investment fraud schemes, particularly those involving cross-border e-commerce and virtual currencies, emphasizing the need for public awareness and caution in financial dealings [3][11]. Group 1: Case Presentations - A case involving Mr. Deng illustrates how he was lured into a fraudulent scheme by promises of easy profits from operating an "overseas store," which required him to prepay for goods and ultimately led to a loss of 127,000 yuan [4][5]. - Another case features Ms. Shang, who fell victim to a romance scam that led her to invest over 100,000 yuan in a fake trading platform, showcasing the emotional manipulation often used in such scams [6]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Experts identify the use of designated commercial prepaid cards as a common tool in investment fraud, allowing scammers to bypass traditional banking oversight and facilitate money laundering [7][8]. - The fraudulent platforms often appear legitimate, using sophisticated apps that can mislead victims into believing they are making real investments, which complicates the detection of scams [8][10]. Group 3: Police Warnings - Law enforcement officials warn that investment schemes promising high returns and guaranteed profits are typically fraudulent, targeting individuals with disposable income and investment interests [11][13]. - The typical progression of such scams involves building trust, encouraging investment, and ultimately blocking withdrawals while demanding additional fees, leading to significant financial losses for victims [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, mainly for observation [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited market operability [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, same as above [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆, same as above [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, same as above [1] Core Views - The report analyzes various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, butadiene rubber, and provides investment ratings and operation suggestions for each commodity based on their supply, demand, and inventory conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today, driven by the strong performance of bulk commodities. The cotton industry chain shows stronger raw materials and weaker downstream. Pure cotton yarn prices rose with raw materials but with weak momentum. Mainland spinning mills' operation rate continued to decline, while Xinjiang's remained high. As of the end of June, cotton commercial inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 628,900 tons from the end of May. Operationally, buy on significant pullbacks [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data for the first half of June in the central - southern region was positive. Due to heavy rainfall, the sugarcane harvest was affected, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased significantly year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 5.1406 million tons, an increase of 614,400 tons year - on - year. It is expected that the short - term sugar price will remain volatile, and for now, take a wait - and - see approach [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated weakly. The spot price remained stable. New - season early - maturing apples began to enter the market. The inventory in cold storage decreased year - on - year. The market's trading focus shifted to the new - season production estimate. The production estimate is relatively bearish. Operationally, maintain a bearish stance [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&NR futures prices declined slightly, and BR fluctuated. The futures market sentiment was cautious. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber spot price rose slightly. The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the supply of synthetic rubber is decreasing. The downstream demand is recovering, and rubber inventory is increasing. Strategically, expect a rebound [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures rose. The spot price remained stable. As of July 10, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.179 million tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons from the previous period. The domestic pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The pulp valuation is low. For now, take a wait - and - see approach or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The supply of New Zealand logs in July increased month - on - month, and the demand improved. The national port log inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. However, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound momentum is insufficient. For now, take a wait - and - see approach [7]

2025 年 07 月 11 日 合成橡胶：上方空间有所收窄 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,615 103,683 | 11,310 84,323 | 305 19360 | | | （08合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 27,306 | 27,783 | -477 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 594,352 | 477,212 | 117139 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -65 | 140 | -205 | | | 月差 | BR07-BR08 | | -15 | -110 | 95 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand, but in the short - term, the market's previously optimistic environment continues, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] - Precious metals maintain a strong and volatile pattern and continue the upward trend; non - ferrous metals maintain a mild increase; black commodities rise; energy prices follow the external market to rise; chemicals rise slightly; agricultural products rise gently [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 0.79%. Black and precious metals had relatively large increases of 1.79% and 1.25% respectively, while agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemicals rose by 0.54%, 0.36%, and 0.18% respectively [1][5] - Among specific varieties, the top gainers were rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore with increases of 2.57%, 2.56%, and 2.23% respectively, and the top losers were soda ash, LPG, and PTA with decreases of 1.84%, 1.74%, and 1.42% respectively [1] - The funds increased, mainly due to the inflow in the non - ferrous metal direction [1][6] 2. Outlook - The market focused on the passage of the US fiscal bill, tariff issues, and the signals of China - EU cooperation. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] 3. Sub - sectors Analysis Precious Metals - Gold is supported by factors such as the tense Middle - East geopolitical situation, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the weakening of the US dollar index. Global central banks' continuous increase in gold reserves strengthens its asset - allocation value. Silver is driven by gold but has weaker elasticity due to its industrial attributes [2] Non - ferrous Metals - The market is boosted by the improvement of macro - expectations and the weakening of the US dollar. Copper, aluminum and other contracts rise slightly, but the rebound is limited by the short - term fundamentals [2] Black Commodities - Rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore and other varieties rise, driven by the improvement of downstream construction, the increase in steel出库 data, and the expectation of infrastructure and real - estate policies in the third quarter. Iron ore is also supported by the decline in port inventory [2] Energy - Crude oil prices rise following the external market, driven by OPEC+ production - cut policies and the increase in US summer travel demand. Domestic crude oil futures and related products also rise, although high inventory still has some suppression [3] Chemicals - The overall chemical market rises slightly. Products like plastics and PP rebound mildly, and PTA and ethylene glycol rise due to upstream cost support. However, the slow recovery of downstream demand restricts the upward momentum [3] Agricultural Products - The agricultural product sector rises gently. Some oil and fat varieties perform well, and the uncertainty of crop growth due to hot weather also supports the market [3] 4. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally have positive returns, with a total scale of 1,554.56 billion yuan and a 1.48% increase. The total scale of commodity ETFs is 1,615.16 billion yuan with a 1.20% increase [34]

Group 1: CTA Product Overview - In Q2 2025, 100 new CTA products were issued, indicating a continuous upward trend in issuance [5][10] - The median annualized return for the reported CTA products was 16.37%, with a median Sharpe Ratio of 1.60 and a median maximum drawdown of -4.28% [10][11] - The overall profitability ratio of CTA products in Q2 was 69.4% [10][11] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Analysis - Stock index futures experienced a trend decline in volatility during Q2, reaching near historical lows [2][40] - The market outlook suggests limited upward space for A-shares due to valuation pressures, with stock index futures expected to remain volatile in Q3 [2][40] - The average daily trading volume for major index futures contracts showed a decline compared to the previous quarter [12] Group 3: Government Bond Futures Outlook - The yield levels for medium to long-term government bonds are at historically low levels, limiting downward potential [3][51] - Economic weakness and insufficient demand are suppressing the upward movement of interest rates, leading to a forecast of a primarily oscillating market for government bond futures in Q3 [3][51] - The performance of government bond CTA strategies is expected to be negatively impacted by low volatility in the absence of extraordinary market events [3][51] Group 4: Commodity Market Insights - Commodity volatility is currently low, with significant price movements in precious metals and energy sectors during Q2, followed by a return to oscillation [4][65] - The overall lack of trading signals in the commodity market is attributed to ongoing deflation in China and slow interest rate cuts in the U.S., leading to a wait-and-see approach for CTA strategies [4][65] - The average return for commodity trend-following strategies was -1.5% in Q2, indicating underperformance across major commodities [64]

Group 1 - In June, private equity institutions showed high enthusiasm for researching A-share listed companies, with 751 institutions participating in 1,769 research sessions covering 387 companies across 28 industries [1] - The first batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs has been officially approved, issued by 10 leading companies, indicating a growing trend in the bond ETF market, which has surpassed 380 billion yuan [2] - The recent expansion of QDII quotas by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, totaling 3.08 billion USD, aims to support cross-border investment and enhance the international competitiveness of domestic financial institutions [3] Group 2 - Fund manager Ye Yong from Wanji Fund maintains a strong position in cyclical stocks, predicting stable growth in major commodity prices by 2025, with a return rate of 26.62% in the first half of the year [4] - The ETF market experienced a rebound, particularly in the innovation drug sector, with related ETFs rising over 4% [5][6] - New measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs have been introduced, with significant increases in patent procurement by multinational pharmaceutical companies in China [8] Group 3 - The new fund "Guotai Juxin Quantitative Stock Selection Mixed Fund" is set to launch, managed by Wu Kefan, with a performance benchmark linked to the CSI 300 Index [9] - The "Chuangjin Hexin Hengrong 120-Day Holding Period Bond Fund" is also launching, managed by Xie Chuang and Huang Jiaxiang, focusing on long-term bonds [11]

2025 年 07 月 03 日 商 品 研 究 | 杨鈜汉 | | --- | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,739 | 1,721 | 1 8 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,730 | 1,710 | 2 0 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 264,417 | 273,523 | -9106 | | （09合约） | | 持仓量 | （手） | 223,883 | 238,027 | -14144 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 500 | 500 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 915,052 | 935,590 | -20538 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | 5 1 | 6 9 | -18 | | | | 丰 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may oscillate weakly in the short term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. After the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, market risk appetite has been continuously recovering, and it is waiting for new domestic and foreign policy signals [1]. - Precious metals maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, but the medium - and long - term support logic remains unchanged. Non - ferrous metals continue the upward trend, and black metals' prices are rising again. Energy and chemical sectors show a weak performance, and agricultural products are on a weak track [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Market Overview - Last week, the overall commodity market declined by 2.00%. The energy and chemical sector fell by 4.23%, agricultural products and precious metals dropped by 1.31% and 0.36% respectively, while black and non - ferrous metals rose by 1.29% and 2.71% respectively [1][6]. - The top - rising varieties were industrial silicon, coking coal, and zinc, with increases of 8.66%, 6.60%, and 3.39% respectively. The top - falling varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with decreases of 12.02%, 10.73%, and 8.09% respectively [1][6]. - There was a small outflow of funds, with little overall change [1][6]. 3.2 Outlook - After the Israel - Iran conflict eased, the market's risk preference is continuously recovering. The market is waiting for new policy signals at home and abroad [1]. 3.3 Specific Commodity Analysis 3.3.1 Precious Metals - They maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Gold is caught between the Fed's high - interest - rate stance and the slight slowdown of US core inflation. Although the US dollar index's strength suppresses gold prices to some extent, geopolitical tensions and central banks' strong gold - buying intentions support gold prices. Silver is affected by its industrial nature, and its short - term trend follows gold [2]. 3.3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - They continue the upward trend. The increase in market risk preference and the Fed's policy adjustment boost the metal sector. Copper prices are supported by low overseas inventories and strong domestic demand, and short - term factors like South American mine maintenance increase supply - tightening expectations. Aluminum prices benefit from rising alumina prices and power - rationing expectations [2]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - Their prices are rising again. Steel futures are firm, driven by the strength of iron ore and expectations of policy support. Iron ore inventories at ports are decreasing, and coke prices are stabilizing, with some areas starting a new round of price increases [3]. 3.3.4 Energy - The overall performance is weak. International oil prices are falling after high - level oscillations, mainly due to the cooling of macro - risk aversion, repeated Fed interest - rate hike expectations, an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, and doubts about OPEC +'s production - cut implementation [3]. 3.3.5 Chemicals - They continue the weak trend. Most chemical varieties are adjusting. Methanol, PVC, and PTA prices are falling due to supply - side recovery and downstream procurement hesitation. High port inventories and import pressure exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction in the methanol market [3]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - The overall trend is weak, with oils and fats falling significantly. The improved weather in South American soybean - producing areas and high domestic soybean inventories suppress the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. Rapeseed meal is weak due to weak aquaculture demand and the price advantage of substitutes [4]. 3.4 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally declined last week, with the total scale increasing by 0.95% and the total trading volume increasing by 12.65%. The energy - chemical ETF and the soybean - meal ETF fell by 4.41% and 4.29% respectively, while the non - ferrous metal ETF rose by 2.19%, and the silver fund rose by 0.83% [35].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Beta Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Beta factor measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to the overall market returns, indicating its systematic risk[29] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the covariance between the stock's returns and the market returns - Divide this covariance by the variance of the market returns - Formula: $ \beta = \frac{\text{Cov}(R_i, R_m)}{\text{Var}(R_m)} $ where $R_i$ is the return of the stock and $R_m$ is the return of the market[29] - **Evaluation**: The Beta factor is a widely used measure of risk, indicating how much a stock's price is expected to move relative to the market[29] 2. Factor Name: Liquidity Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Liquidity factor assesses the ease with which a stock can be traded without affecting its price, reflecting the market's depth and breadth[29] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the average daily trading volume - Calculate the bid-ask spread - Combine these metrics to form a composite liquidity score - Formula: $ \text{Liquidity} = \frac{\text{Average Daily Volume}}{\text{Bid-Ask Spread}} $[29] - **Evaluation**: The Liquidity factor is crucial for understanding the trading costs and potential price impact of large trades[29] 3. Factor Name: Profitability Quality Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Profitability Quality factor evaluates the financial health and earnings quality of a company, focusing on sustainable and high-quality earnings[29] - **Construction Process**: - Analyze various financial ratios such as return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), and profit margins - Combine these ratios into a composite score - Formula: $ \text{Profitability Quality} = \frac{\text{ROE} + \text{ROA} + \text{Profit Margin}}{3} $[29] - **Evaluation**: This factor helps in identifying companies with strong and sustainable earnings, which are likely to perform well in the long term[29] Factor Backtesting Results 1. Beta Factor - **IR**: 0.45[29] - **Annualized Return**: 8.5%[29] - **Volatility**: 12.3%[29] 2. Liquidity Factor - **IR**: 0.38[29] - **Annualized Return**: 7.8%[29] - **Volatility**: 11.5%[29] 3. Profitability Quality Factor - **IR**: 0.52[29] - **Annualized Return**: 9.2%[29] - **Volatility**: 10.8%[29] Additional Factors and Their Performance 1. Factor Name: Skewness Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Skewness factor measures the asymmetry of the return distribution, indicating the potential for extreme positive or negative returns[33] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the third moment of the return distribution - Normalize by the cube of the standard deviation - Formula: $ \text{Skewness} = \frac{E[(R - \mu)^3]}{\sigma^3} $ where $R$ is the return, $\mu$ is the mean return, and $\sigma$ is the standard deviation[33] - **Evaluation**: This factor is useful for understanding the tail risks and potential for extreme outcomes in the return distribution[33] 2. Factor Name: Position Change Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Position Change factor tracks changes in the holdings of large institutional investors, indicating their sentiment and market positioning[33] - **Construction Process**: - Monitor the quarterly filings of institutional investors - Calculate the net change in positions for each stock - Formula: $ \text{Position Change} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Holdings} - \text{Previous Quarter Holdings}}{\text{Previous Quarter Holdings}} $[33] - **Evaluation**: This factor provides insights into the buying and selling activities of major market players, which can influence stock prices[33] Factor Backtesting Results 1. Skewness Factor - **IR**: 0.42[33] - **Annualized Return**: 8.1%[33] - **Volatility**: 11.9%[33] 2. Position Change Factor - **IR**: 0.47[33] - **Annualized Return**: 8.7%[33] - **Volatility**: 11.2%[33]