Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to continue rising in 2026 due to macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, dollar credit crises, geopolitical conflicts, and central bank gold purchases [1][2] - The recent volatility in gold prices is characterized as a "roller coaster" market, influenced by the rapid price increases and subsequent corrections expected to last for 2-3 months [1] - Central banks have been consistently increasing their gold reserves, driven by motives such as reserve diversification, hedging against geopolitical risks, and enhancing monetary confidence management [1] Group 2 - The long-term support for gold prices is anticipated from slow variables like Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank purchases, alongside short-term catalysts from geopolitical conflicts and currency credit concerns [2]

2026 年 2 月 12 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1133.00 | 1130.400 | 20505 | 20944 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1123.96 | 1121.220 | 19711 | 20284 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | 9.04 | 9.180 | 794 | 660 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | 0.80% | 0.82% | 4.03% | 3.25% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 89881 | 160510 | 134806 | 211818 | | | | 成交量 | 44843 | 217933 | 2 ...

Group 1 - The end of the precious metals bull market typically requires a significant narrative logic reversal, but the long-term trends supporting gold, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, de-globalization, global de-dollarization, and central bank gold purchases, remain intact [1] - Historical data indicates that after reaching a peak, gold prices often experience a rapid decline, followed by substantial gains, suggesting that current gold prices may have established a mid-term low [1] - The long-term trend for gold remains strong, driven by challenges to the dollar credit system due to excessive money supply and fiscal deficit monetization, alongside increasing demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical instability [1] Group 2 - The ongoing trend of global de-dollarization positions gold as a potential new pricing anchor, providing upward momentum for precious metals [1] - The combination of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, increasing overseas uncertainties, and the global de-dollarization trend continues to support gold prices [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider investment opportunities in gold ETFs, such as the Cathay Gold ETF (518800) and gold stock ETFs (517400) [1]

VGZ股价在最近7天呈现显著波动。区间振幅达33.33%，其中2月9日单日涨幅14.77%，2月10日续涨 7.72%，但2月11日回调6.14%，收盘报2.75美元。年初至今累计涨幅为39.34%，同期美股黄金板块微涨 0.08%。成交量在2月10日放大至224万股，显示市场关注度提升。 经济观察网Vista黄金(VGZ)近期热点围绕其核心项目进展。公司计划在约2026年中期就是否出售或融资 推进澳大利亚北领地的Mt Todd金矿项目做出最终决策，这一战略决策可能对长期发展方向产生重要影 响。同期，全球金价波动加剧，现货黄金在2026年2月11日重新站上5000美元/盎司关口，市场关注美联 储政策预期及央行购金行为对黄金板块的支撑。 股票近期走势 机构对VGZ持乐观看法，HC Wainwright等机构近期给予买入评级。分析指出，Mt Todd项目修订后资本 支出降低60%，运营成本(AISC)约1499美元/盎司，低于全球平均水平，若融资顺利可能提升公司价 值。金价长期支撑因素如美元信用风险及央行购金趋势被多次强调，德意志银行等机构维持金价乐观预 测。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 机构观点 ...

Group 1 - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices dropping over 1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.09% [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fell below 2 trillion yuan for the first time in 31 trading days, decreasing by 121.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - The ETF market saw significant gains, particularly in the rare metals sector, with notable increases in stocks such as Dongfang Tantalum Industry and Zhongtung High-tech, which hit the daily limit [2] Group 2 - Analysts highlight that the limited reserves and high extraction difficulty of strategic minor metals, combined with rapidly growing demand from sectors like new energy and semiconductors, are intensifying supply-demand conflicts [3] - The collective price increase of minor metals is primarily driven by tight supply and explosive demand, particularly for tungsten, where domestic production is constrained by stricter environmental standards and rising operational costs [3] - Future price trends for rare metals are expected to rise due to resource scarcity, demand structure upgrades, and policy adjustments, benefiting companies with resource advantages and compliance in export channels [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious view on various commodities, with some marked as "cautiously bearish" and others as "cautiously bullish". For example, crude oil, methanol, etc., are marked as "cautiously bearish", while gold, silver, etc., are marked as "cautiously bullish" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple aspects including economic data, geopolitical events, and market trends. It mentions that the US is at a critical stage of its economic cycle, and the global market is affected by various factors such as US employment data, geopolitical negotiations, and supply - demand changes in different industries [1][5]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, precious metals are expected to return to an upward trend in the long - term, while the short - term is affected by data announcements; the crude oil market is influenced by geopolitical negotiations and supply changes [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Chief Comment - US API crude oil inventory increased by 13.4 million barrels last week. US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 14% week - on - week but increased by 3% year - on - year. As of February 5, 2026, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume was 1,136,099 tons. The total US soybean export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season reached 23,136,299 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34.4%. The US non - farm employment data to be released this Wednesday is expected to show an increase of 69,000 in non - farm employment in January, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%. Futures markets mostly rose at night, with propylene up over 2% and glass down over 1% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Precious Metals - Precious metals are in a consolidation phase. The market is waiting for US employment and inflation data, which may affect subsequent interest rate cut expectations. After a sharp rise in January, precious metals had a significant shock. In the long - term, factors such as de - dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases still support the upward trend of gold. The central bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. It is recommended to wait and see for silver due to its high volatility and relatively low gold - silver ratio [2]. Crude Oil - SC crude oil rose 0.21% at night. Iran and the US held indirect negotiations in Muscat. The negotiation started well, and both sides agreed to continue. Kazakhstan's oil export volume in February may drop by up to 35% due to the slow recovery of the Tengiz oil field [3]. Stock Index - US stock indexes were mixed. The stock index rose slightly the previous trading day, with the media sector leading the rise and the real estate sector leading the fall. The market turnover was 2.12 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 523 million yuan on February 9. In February, the market is expected to continue the phased upward trend, but the potential impact of overseas market fluctuations during the Spring Festival should be noted [3]. 3. Main News of the Day International News - Ray Dalio warned that the US is at the "fifth stage" of the imperial cycle, on the verge of order collapse and conflict. He suggested that gold should account for 5% - 15% of the investment portfolio [5]. Domestic News - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and carry out regular treasury bond trading operations [6]. Industry News - An article in Qiushi emphasized the importance of cultivating future industries for high - quality development [7]. 4. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the daily returns of various overseas markets on February 9 and 10, including the S&P 500, European STOXX50, etc. Some indexes and commodities rose, while others fell [8]. 5. Morning Comments on Main Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to continue the phased upward trend in February, but the potential impact of overseas market fluctuations during the Spring Festival should be noted [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The market expects the new Fed chairman's policy to be a combination of interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction. The bond futures price is expected to stabilize, and cautious operation is recommended before the Spring Festival [10][11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 0.21% at night. Iran - US negotiations started well, and Kazakhstan's oil export volume may decline [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.09% at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the methanol inventory in coastal areas decreased [13]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber rebounded slightly. The domestic production area is in the off - season, and the supply elasticity is weak. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro factors. It is recommended to control positions before the Spring Festival [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined, and soda ash futures also fell. The glass supply - demand situation is gradually improving, and the supply of soda ash is slightly shrinking. It is recommended to control positions before the Spring Festival [16]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a consolidation phase. They are affected by US data announcements. In the long - term, gold is expected to rise, and it is recommended to wait and see for silver [17]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.17% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the copper price may enter an adjustment phase [18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.08% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [19]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum market was flat at night. The aluminum production rate is high, but the downstream demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. In the long - term, low inventory and stable demand support the price [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production and production plan of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities after volatility reduction [21]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke rebounded at night. The supply of coking coal decreased slightly, and the demand growth is limited. After the Spring Festival, factors such as iron - making production, mine operation, and import policies should be noted [22]. - **Steel**: Steel production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The construction downstream demand is weakening. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [23]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise. The steel mill's demand for iron ore is expected to be based on on - demand replenishment, and the iron ore price is expected to be weak and volatile [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal rose at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing, and the US soybean price is under pressure. The domestic soybean meal price is also affected by high inventory and sufficient supply expectations [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were weak at night. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia decreased, and the production decreased. The palm oil price is supported by inventory reduction but restricted by crude oil prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [26][27]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price continued to fluctuate. The global sugar supply is in an oversupply situation, and the domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [28]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price maintained a range - bound trend. The textile factory's restocking is coming to an end, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of direct subsidy policies [29]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures market continued to be weak. The supply in the spot market exceeds demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term [30]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fell 4.57%. The spot freight rate in February is relatively stable, and the market is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the impact of export demand and price increase letters should be noted [31].

2月10日9时38分，伦敦现货黄金报价5020.02美元/盎司，较前一日下跌0.20%，日内波动区间集中在5007-5047 美元。 纽约黄金期货同步回调至5044.9美元/盎司，跌幅0.68%。 国内市场则表现强势，上海黄金交易所黄金T D报1118.62元/克，上涨0.15%；沪金主连期货合约涨至1121.1元/克，涨幅0.47%。 线下消费市场热度攀升。 周大福、周生生等品牌足金饰品报价达1560元/克，老凤祥为1556元/克，较1月底历史 高位回落约20%，但仍比国内大盘价高出300-400元/克。 银行投资金条价格区间为1136-1148元/克，建设银行、 工商银行等渠道现货紧缺，需线上预约配送。 波动溯源：从暴涨到急跌的28天 金价实时数据：内外盘分化明显 线下实况：金店排队长龙与保险箱荒 2月10日北方小年当日，北京、广州等地金店客流量显著增加。 广州太古汇某知名金店购金队伍延续至店外， 投资金条客户与礼品需求消费者共同推高销量。 与此同时，黄金回收业务量同步激增，深圳水贝市场回收价参 考1115-1123元/克，部分商户单日回收量环比上涨30%。 银行保险箱服务呈现"一箱难求"。 招商银行北京 ...

Macro News - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 17.7%, while the probability of maintaining rates is 82.3% [1] - By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 32.4%, with a 63.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged, and a 4% chance of a 50 basis point cut [1] - By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut reaches 50.4% [1] - The White House's Hassett predicts a decline in employment, stating that AI will boost productivity and reduce labor demand [1] Institutional Views - Recent market sentiment has improved, with a V-shaped rebound in U.S. stocks and a weakening dollar, leading to a recovery in gold and silver prices from previous pessimism [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that the recent drop in gold prices was primarily driven by speculative selling and market rumors about domestic commercial banks potentially reducing their exposure to U.S. Treasuries [1] - These factors have collectively strengthened market confidence in precious metals like gold [1] - The recent price fluctuations are attributed to emotional and risk releases following rapid price increases, while the macroeconomic environment supporting gold and silver's long-term trends remains favorable [1] - This week will see the release of important data, including U.S. retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and CPI, but with the upcoming Chinese New Year, a cautious approach of light positions or staying out of the market is advised [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Index (IH, IF, IC, IM), Rubber, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Lithium Carbonate, Corn [5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Apple [5] Core Views - Geopolitical and policy factors are influencing the oil price, which shows a strong upward trend. The negotiation between Iran and the US on the nuclear issue is in progress, and the Fed's interest - rate stance affects market expectations. The global grain consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase, and the domestic futures market has mixed performance [1]. - Precious metals are in a rebound phase. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. Silver's high volatility suggests investors to wait and see. Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical negotiations and supply changes in Kazakhstan. Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase due to supply and demand factors [2][3]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to continue the phased upward trend in February, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival. The bond market is affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and domestic economic data, and the bond price is expected to stabilize [10][11]. - In the energy and chemical market, the supply and demand of various products such as crude oil, methanol, and rubber are affected by different factors, and their prices show different trends. In the metal market, precious metals, copper, zinc, aluminum, and lithium carbonate have different price trends and influencing factors. In the black market, the supply and demand of steel, iron ore, and coking coal are affected by the approaching Spring Festival and other factors. In the agricultural product market, the prices of protein meal, oil, sugar, cotton, and pork are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies. In the shipping market, the container shipping European line is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival and will face verification after the festival [13][19][25][28][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Main News Focus International News - Elon Musk said that SpaceX has shifted its focus to building a "self - developing" city on the moon, which is expected to be achieved in less than 10 years. The plan to build a city on Mars will start in 5 - 7 years and is expected to take more than 20 years [6]. Domestic News - On the morning of February 9, President Xi Jinping inspected the National Information Technology Application Innovation Park in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological self - reliance in building a modern socialist country [7]. Industry News - Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security conducted administrative guidance on 16 platform companies to protect the rights and interests of new - form workers [8]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose. The US dollar index fell. ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, LME aluminum, LME copper, and LME nickel all rose, while LME zinc fell. CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, and CBOT corn fell, while CBOT soybean oil rose [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, and the domestic stock index rebounded. In February, the market is expected to continue the upward trend, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival [10]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's open - market operations keep the money market loose. The Fed's policy and domestic economic data affect the bond market, and it is recommended to operate cautiously before the Spring Festival [11][12]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session price rose. The negotiation between Iran and the US is in progress, and Kazakhstan's oil export may decline [13]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night - session price fell. The domestic coal - to - olefin device's operating rate increased, and the methanol inventory in coastal areas decreased slightly [14]. - **Natural Rubber**: The natural rubber price rebounded. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand supports the stable operation of all - steel tires. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [15]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin futures fell slightly. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro - factors [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly, and soda ash futures mainly fell. The supply and demand of glass and soda ash are gradually being repaired, and the market focuses on the real - estate and photovoltaic industries [17]. Metal - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals continued to rebound. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. It is recommended to wait and see for silver [19]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the copper price may enter an adjustment phase [20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [21]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose at night. The domestic aluminum price is high, but the downstream demand is weak before the Spring Festival. However, long - term factors support the price [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities after the volatility decreases [23][24]. Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were weak at night. The demand for coking coal and coke is limited, but the downstream's pre - festival replenishment provides support [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply decreased slightly, and the demand weakened. The inventory increased, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore shipping and arrival increased, and the port inventory increased. The steel mill's replenishment is coming to an end, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fell at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is in progress, and the domestic supply is expected to be sufficient, which may put pressure on the price [28]. - **Oil**: The oil prices were weak at night. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the inventory is expected to decline, but the crude oil price affects the palm oil price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [29]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar price was slightly stronger at night. The global sugar supply is in an over - supply situation, and the domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated within a range. The textile factory's replenishment is coming to an end, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the direct subsidy policy [31]. - **Pork**: The pork price fell. The supply pressure increased, and the demand could not fully digest it. The pig price is expected to be weakly stable [32]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping European Line**: The EC price fell. The spot freight rate is relatively stable before the Spring Festival, and it is expected to be volatile. After the Spring Festival, it will face the verification of the photovoltaic export rush and the implementation of the price increase letter [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has seen significant growth in trading volume and net inflows, indicating strong investor interest amid rising international gold prices driven by market uncertainties [1][2][3]. Fund Performance - As of February 9, the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) reached a record high in shares since its inception [1]. - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past four days, with a peak single-day inflow of 386 million yuan, totaling 503 million yuan [2]. Product Highlights - The management fee for the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both lower than the average for similar products. The ETF also supports T+0 trading [3]. Market Events - International precious metal futures have surged, with gold prices increasing by 2.10% to $5084.20 per ounce and silver prices rising by 8.00% to $83.05 per ounce. This rise is attributed to heightened market risk aversion due to political changes in the UK and weak employment data in the US, alongside a greater than 50% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June [3]. Institutional Perspectives - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that the long-term outlook for gold remains supported. The recent significant drop in precious metal prices is viewed as a technical adjustment rather than the end of a long-term bull market. The cooling of speculative sentiment and a decrease in leverage levels are expected to help gold return to a healthier upward trend. In the long term, ongoing global monetary system restructuring and central bank gold purchases are anticipated to sustain gold's long-term bullish trend [4].