Core Viewpoint - The A-share insurance sector has experienced a strong rise since 2025, significantly outperforming other financial sectors and the CSI 300 index, driven by policy benefits, improved fundamentals, and favorable market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Growth - The five major listed insurance companies in A-shares have shown substantial annual growth rates, with stock price increases of 21.21% for China Ping An, 10.39% for China Life, 26.60% for China Pacific Insurance, 35.87% for China Re, and 46.03% for New China Life in 2025 [2]. - The insurance sector's performance has outpaced that of banks and securities, indicating a robust upward trend in the market [2]. Group 2: Fundamental Support - The strong performance of insurance stocks is attributed to two main factors: better-than-expected growth in new insurance policies and a recovering equity market, which has led to increased investment from insurance funds [3]. - In the first eleven months of 2025, the insurance industry's original premium income reached 5.76 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6%, with life insurance companies seeing a 9.1% increase [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The "opening red" phenomenon in 2026 is expected to sustain the high demand for insurance products, further supporting the ongoing bullish trend in the insurance market [4]. - The stability of long-term interest rates and increased equity allocation are anticipated to enhance investment returns, while the return of dividend insurance products is expected to optimize the cost structure for listed insurance companies [5]. Group 4: Regulatory and Policy Environment - Recent regulatory adjustments have lowered risk factors for insurance companies, potentially releasing significant capital for investment in the stock market, estimated to exceed 1 trillion yuan if fully allocated [6]. - The insurance sector is expected to see an influx of approximately 600 billion yuan in new capital entering the market in 2026, driven by favorable policies and market conditions [6].

智通财经1月6日讯（编辑 王蔚）进入2026年，存款到期体量大致有多少？这是近期市场颇为关注的问题，目前"开门红"是敏感时期，机构压力颇大。 据相关券商研报测算，今年1Y以上定期存款到期规模约50万亿，较2025年增长10万亿。其中，2年期、3年期存款到期量预计均在20万亿以上，5年期大致在 5-6万亿。 分银行类型来看，预计国有行存款到期规模最大，体量大致在30-40万亿；股份行次之，约10-13万亿；城农商行合计到期规模约5-7万亿（均不考虑1年及以 内新发存款）。 年内到期节奏方面，由于每年初银行存在"开门红"诉求，一季度新增存款往往最多，对应到期规模也可能更大。业内预计上半年全市场定存到期规模约30万 亿，下半年大致在20余万亿。 存款到期后，主要流向四个方向：偿还存量房贷、流向股市、购买理财等产品、以及继续购买更低利率的存款。 业内人士普遍认为，目前，存款搬家尚处于早期阶段，2026年，存款搬家现象会加强。 存款或主要"搬家"至四大方向 随着存款利率持续下行、资本市场回暖，叠加前几年新发的定期存款集中到期，居民存款迎来新一轮"迁徙"。截至2025年11月，居民定期存款增速从22-23 年的20%回落 ...

2026 保险投资四问四答 20260105 摘要 预计到期理财产品规模达 25 万亿，为保险业保费增长提供空间，近期 "开门红"数据亦显示各公司业绩良好，预示行业增长潜力。 尽管保险行业利润面临压力，但历史数据显示，利润增速下降年份行业 市值仍保持稳定或提升，资产端预期和投资收益率变化是更重要的估值 驱动因素。 短期内，基于"存款搬家"逻辑，预测 2026 年人身险规模可达 4.8 万 亿，同比增长 10%；中长期看，储蓄型和保障型产品需求均能支撑行业 增长，养老储备不足构成长期增长动力。 监管要求新增保费 30%投资 A 股，预计 2026 年人身险经营性净现金流 约 4.8 万亿，对应 3,000 亿至 7,600 亿增量资金入市，中长期增配权益 资产趋势确定。 险资配置偏好长期稳定收益的配置性权益类资产，如价值股、周期底部 股，以应对久期缺口和低利率环境下的投资需求。 保险公司盈利能力取决于投资收益率与负债成本率之差，负债成本改善 趋势明确，市场对利差走阔持乐观态度，推动中长期估值修复至一倍水 平。 当前保险板块估值距离一倍 PV 仍有较大空间，建议继续推荐保险板块， 并建议仓位大于个股选择，表明行业 ...

跟随A股保险股的强劲表现，港股市场保险股走强。其中，中国太平、新华保险涨超5%，中国太保涨 超3%，中国平安、中国财险涨近3%。值得注意的是，新华保险、中国太保创历史新高，中国平安创近 5年新高。 中金公司发布2026年展望研报认为，寿险行业五大趋势值得关注：一是新业务延续快速增长，拥抱"存 款搬家"和"健康险新时代"；二是新业务刚性成本进一步下降，新业务价值说服力增强；三是新业务产 品结构多元化，优质公司业务结构优化更显著且新业务质量与同业分化；四是行业客群层级向上迁移， 同时行业经营模式、人才以此为契机开启升级优化；五是竞争格局向具备寿险经营能力的公司集中。 ...

跟随A股保险股的强劲表现，港股市场保险股走强。其中，中国太平、新华保险涨超5%，中国太保涨 超3%，中国平安、中国财险涨近3%。值得注意的是，新华保险、中国太保创历史新高，中国平安创近 5年新高。 中金公司发布2026年展望研报认为，寿险行业五大趋势值得关注：一是新业务延续快速增长，拥抱"存 款搬家"和"健康险新时代"；二是新业务刚性成本进一步下降，新业务价值说服力增强；三是新业务产 品结构多元化，优质公司业务结构优化更显著且新业务质量与同业分化；四是行业客群层级向上迁移， 同时行业经营模式、人才以此为契机开启升级优化；五是竞争格局向具备寿险经营能力的公司集中。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 √ | 最新价 | 总市值 | 年初至今涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00966 | 中国太平 | 5.54% | 20.380 | 732.46亿 | 9.04% | | 01336 | 新华保险 | 5.16% | 59.100 | 1843.65亿 | 8.74% | | 02601 | 中国太保 | 3.65% | 37.520 | 3609.55亿 ...

记者 尹睿 济南报道 2026年,居民定期存款市场将迎来规模空前的集中到期潮。根据中金公司（601995）货币金融研究数据, 全年合计超过30万亿元的2年期、3年期和5年期居民定期存款将陆续到期,其中2年期20.7万亿元、3年期 9.6万亿元、5年期1.3万亿元。 与存款到期高峰形成鲜明对比的,是定期存款利率的深度下调。上述到期存款在2025年及之前存入时,普 遍享受了相对较高的利率。但根据中金研究测算,它们重定价(即到期后重新存入)后,利率将分别显著下 行72、142和168个基点(bp),普通储户正面临资金重新配置的关键抉择。 数字人民币或成过渡选择 自2026年1月1日起,工商银行、中国银行、农业银行、建设银行、交通银行及邮储银行（601658）六大 国有行同步执行数字人民币计息政策,数字货币正式告别"无息时代"。 根据公告细则,一类、二类、三类个人实名钱包及单位钱包余额,均按照该行公布的活期存款挂牌利率计 付利息,每季度末月20日结息、21日入账,与传统活期存款规则完全一致。记者在六大国有银行官网查询 到,当前各家银行的活期存款挂牌利率均为0.05%。 值得注意的是,此次计息范围明确排除四类非实名钱包 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the insurance industry is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The focus should be on the logic of long-term profit improvement rather than short-term valuation changes. The insurance industry's ability and willingness to allocate equity will significantly boost in the foreseeable future, combined with the advantages of improved liability costs, leading to a sustained increase in industry spreads in the medium to long term. This will drive the profitability of policies, with ideal models suggesting profitability could exceed 1 times the effective business value, indicating ample room for valuation recovery [3][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Why There is No Need to Worry About Base Pressure - The trend of deposit migration is smooth, and both new business and NBV bases are not excessively high, resulting in low pressure on the liability side. The strong performance of the asset side will benefit profits, but short-term valuation is primarily influenced by investment returns, meaning profit growth or decline does not necessarily lead to corresponding changes in valuation [5][18]. 2. How to Assess Premium Space - Short-term perspective: Assuming that the incremental life insurance mainly comes from the maturity of deposits, the forecast for 2026 is a personal insurance scale of CNY 4.8 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 10% [6][56]. - Long-term perspective: As the proportion of pension asset reserves gradually approaches that of the U.S., the trend of deposit migration to insurance will continue, driven by the multi-level pension system development, maintaining a CAGR of around 10% over the next decade [6][65]. 3. Scale and Direction of Insurance Capital Market Entry - It is estimated that the scale of insurance funds allocated to A-shares in 2026 will be approximately CNY 3,127 to 7,685 billion, based on the initiative to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-shares [7][69]. 4. Why Long-term Valuation Recovery is Promising - The combination of current industry conditions and policy environment will significantly enhance the insurance industry's ability and willingness to allocate equity in the foreseeable future. This, along with improved liability cost advantages, will lead to a sustained increase in industry spreads, driving policy profitability improvement and indicating ample room for valuation recovery [8][47].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated influx of public funds into the market in 2026, driven by the launch of ETFs and actively managed equity funds, with a total expected scale exceeding 430 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: ETF Market - Six ETFs are set to launch in the first week of 2026, with a total funding of over 20 billion yuan, including significant contributions from individual investors [3][9]. - The total scale of the 16 ETFs expected to enter the market after New Year's is nearly 50 billion yuan, with a focus on technology and innovation sectors [3][6]. - The stock positions of these ETFs are currently low, indicating potential for future growth as they begin to deploy their capital [3][5]. Group 2: Actively Managed Equity Funds - Over 66 actively managed equity funds were established by the end of December 2025, with a total fundraising of approximately 387.35 billion yuan, contributing significantly to the market [4][5]. - The average return of these newly established funds is relatively low, suggesting that a substantial portion of the raised capital is yet to be invested [5]. Group 3: Potential for Increased Investment - There is a significant potential for "deposit migration" into the market, with estimates suggesting an additional 2 trillion to 4 trillion yuan could flow into non-fixed deposit investments in 2026 [10]. - The total scale of ETFs reached over 6 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with nearly 1 trillion yuan added during that year, indicating strong investor interest [10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is expected to shift its driving factors from valuation to profitability, with anticipated recovery in earnings growth and return on equity (ROE) levels in 2026 [11][12]. - The technology investment landscape is expected to become more challenging in 2026, requiring precise industry timing and stock selection to achieve excess returns [13].

2026年市场徐徐展开，截至2025年12月31日，元旦后陆续入市的公募资金规模在430亿元以上。一是拟于元 旦后将上市的16只ETF，合计资金规模近50亿元；二是于2025年11月后成立的60多只处于建仓初期的主动 权益基金，合计规模约为380多亿元。 券商中国记者采访了解到，新年上市ETF的持有人，以个人投资者居多，不少产品的个人投资者持有份额占比 在90%以上。从底层资金来源看，根据机构预测，居民储蓄资金入市潜力巨大。2026年非定存投资领域有望额 外新增2万亿元—4万亿元左右的活化资金。 受访人士对券商中国记者表示，2026年股票投资有望继续领跑，期待居民储蓄能更显著进入股票市场。2026年 科技投资难度将大于2025年，超额收益将更依赖于对产业节奏的精准把握和个股的深度甄别，挑战增加，但结 构性机遇依然丰富。 借道ETF和主动权益基金入市 截至2025年12月31日，一共有6只ETF定于2026年新年首周登陆资本市场。其中，4只ETF在新年首个交易日 （1月5日）上市，包括招商创业板人工智能ETF（2.1亿元）、鹏华中证卫星产业ETF（3.03亿元）、摩根中证 科创创业人工智能ETF（3.08亿元） ...

证券研究报告 2025.12.10 理财 2026 年展望：存款搬家、资产配置新 叙事 SAC 执证编号：S0080522070019 SFC CE Ref：BTC623 ziyu.wang@cicc.com.cn 王子瑜 分析员 李少萌 分析员 张帅帅 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080524060011 shaomeng.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080516060001 SFC CE Ref：BHQ055 shuaishuai.zhang@cicc.com.cn 纵轴：相对值（%） 90 100 110 120 130 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 2025-12 沪深300 中金银行 中金一级行业：金融 资料来源：Wind，彭博资讯，中金公司研究部 ⚫ 银行 | 低利率时代的业务选择——1H25理财综述 (2025.07.29) 观点聚焦 投资建议 2025 年，理财行业在存款搬家、存续浮盈释放的背景下，实现了 超预期的增长。进入 2026 年，理财机构将拥有多资产布局、居民 储蓄率进一步下行的发展机遇，但同时也将面对平滑估值整改的 压力。 ...