来源：市场资讯 9月4日，近期，黄金价格大幅飙升至历史新高，背后驱动力主要来自就业市场持续走弱的迹象以及市场 对美联储货币宽松政策的强烈预期。GTC泽汇资本认为，在劳动力市场疲软和货币政策拐点的共振下， 贵金属市场正迎来新的支撑周期，黄金的避险和配置价值持续上升。 避险需求叠加政治经济不确定性 除货币政策外，更广泛的政治和经济不确定性也在持续强化黄金的避险吸引力。对美联储独立性的担忧 以及贸易政策潜在风险，均为黄金提供额外支撑。GTC泽汇资本认为，持续的上涨不仅是对短期经济数 据的反应，更反映了长期结构性不确定性下，机构与零售投资者对黄金需求的增强。 多重因素叠加支撑黄金前景 综合来看，就业市场持续恶化、货币政策宽松几乎板上钉钉，以及政治经济风险升温，三者的交汇为黄 金提供了前所未有的有利环境。GTC泽汇资本认为，在当前复杂的经济与政策背景下，贵金属资产将继 续在多元化投资组合中占据重要地位，特别是在劳动力市场进一步下行与政策持续宽松的情境下，黄金 有望维持其高位震荡甚至进一步上行的趋势。 最新的JOLTS职位空缺与劳动力流动调查数据显示，岗位空缺降幅超过市场预期，且四年多来首次出现 求职人数超过岗位数量的情 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a surprisingly strong U.S. employment report may be the only factor preventing the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in the near future, but this possibility is considered very slim [1] - The U.S. job market has significantly cooled since the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, with an average of only 35,000 new jobs added per month from May to July, marking the lowest three-month increase since the pandemic began in 2020 [1] - Wall Street's expectations for the August job market are pessimistic, with forecasts predicting only 75,000 new jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3%, reaching a near four-year high [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the deterioration of the labor market is sufficient to support a recent interest rate cut, emphasizing that "downside risks to the labor market are rising" [1] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in September has surged to 90% following Powell's remarks, which were interpreted as dovish signals [1] - Recent employment reports from the U.S. government have frequently undergone significant revisions, with the initial report for May and June showing 291,000 new jobs, later revised down to only 33,000, a staggering adjustment of 88.6% [1] Group 3 - The upcoming quarterly employment and wage survey may lead to a downward adjustment of employment growth data for the period from April 2024 to March 2025, with Wall Street predicting an overestimation of up to 800,000 jobs [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a dual mandate of controlling inflation and promoting employment, with the core CPI rising 3.1% year-over-year in July, still above the 2% target [2] - The best-case scenario for financial markets would be a moderate increase in employment numbers with a slight rise in the unemployment rate, indicating that the economy is not in recession while justifying a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 4 - Investors are trying to determine when "bad news is good news" and when "bad news is just bad news" as the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in September [3] - The distinction lies in understanding why the Federal Reserve would cut rates and what the implications of such cuts would be for the economy and markets [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts within the year, emphasizing the need for action due to recent weak labor market data [1][3] - Bowman advocates for initiating rate cuts at the September meeting to prevent further deterioration in the labor market and to reduce the likelihood of needing larger policy adjustments later [3][4] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also noted the proximity of rate cuts, suggesting two 25 basis point cuts this year, with a focus on whether to cut in September and December [3][4] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin three consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting in September, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [3][4] - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with Bowman and another governor voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3][4] - Recent labor market data shows a significant underperformance, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the expected 100,000, and previous months' data being revised downwards [4][5] Group 3 - Inflation data indicates stability, with the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, slightly higher than May [5] - The core PCE price index also rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, aligning with market expectations [5] - Upcoming key economic data releases, including July CPI and PPI, are anticipated to provide important insights for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Goldman Sachs indicates that recent economic data has contradicted Powell's hawkish statements, suggesting a significant weakening in the labor market, which paves the way for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive easing policy [1][2]. Labor Market Weakness - The non-farm payroll data released last week shows that the U.S. job market has "clearly turned," prompting the Fed to consider larger rate cuts at the September meeting [2][6]. - Employment growth has been at its lowest level in the past three months, particularly in the private sector, with GDP growth rate declining by approximately 100 basis points compared to the same period last year [4]. - The unemployment rate is gradually rising, and there is a significant divergence between the Labor Market Discrepancy Index (LMD) and the unemployment rate, indicating that the latter may underestimate the actual weakness in the labor market [5]. Rate Cut Expectations - The market is currently pricing in a 22 basis point cut for the Fed's September meeting, but Goldman Sachs expects a consensus around a 50 basis point cut instead of the widely anticipated 25 basis points [3][6]. - The report suggests that if inflation does not accelerate, the Fed could implement a 50 basis point cut or even larger [6][9]. - The expectation for a 50 basis point cut is becoming a benchmark in the market, as the evidence of labor market weakness mounts [8]. Broader Economic Implications - The report emphasizes that while a full economic downturn is not anticipated, it is "extremely clear" that policy rates should not remain at current levels [10]. - The rising unemployment rate among Black Americans and the rapid decline of the diffusion index are highlighted as indicators of a painful job market [7].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement a 50 basis point rate cut in September, contrary to the widely expected 25 basis points [1] Group 1: Employment Market Signals - The employment market has clearly turned, with recent data indicating a significant decline in job creation, particularly in the private sector [2] - The U.S. economy has seen the lowest job additions in the past three months, with GDP growth rate declining by approximately 100 basis points year-over-year [2] - The unemployment rate is gradually rising, and the labor market disparity index suggests that the actual labor market conditions are worse than indicated by the unemployment rate [2] Group 2: Rate Cut Expectations - The market currently prices in a 22 basis point rate cut for the September meeting, but Goldman Sachs believes that a 50 basis point cut should be the new benchmark expectation [3] - If inflation does not show significant improvement, the Federal Reserve may consider a 50 basis point cut, with potential for cuts of 75-100 basis points if inflation remains subdued [3] - The consensus among Fed members is expected to shift towards acknowledging substantial weakness in the employment market [3]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇7月31日｜美国劳工部周四公布，上周美国初请失业救济人数趋于稳定，令人放心。截至7月26日 的一周，初次申请失业救济人数为218,000人，而前一周为217,000人。续请失业救济人数为195万人，与 前一周持平。昨晚，美联储连续第五次会议维持利率不变，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上说，就业 市场稳定，表明不急于通过降息来转向更宽松的货币政策立场。然而，一些经济学家担心的是就业市场 的疲软隐藏在强劲的表象之下。尽管失业率仍然不高，但许多工人报告说找工作时间长，很难找到机 会。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is facing dual pressures from a weak labor market and rising inflation, complicating its policy decisions [1] Group 1: Employment Market - Recent business surveys indicate a decline in employment numbers within the UK services sector, attributed to recent minimum wage increases and rising labor costs [1] - The trend of declining employment is significant as it reflects broader economic challenges [1] Group 2: Inflation Trends - The surveys also reveal a resurgence in input price inflation, suggesting that inflationary pressures are re-emerging in the economy [1] - The critical question remains whether higher inflation or lower hiring is more significant for the economy [1] Group 3: Policy Implications - The dual pressures of weak employment and rising inflation will pose a difficult decision for the Bank of England in its upcoming policy meeting in August [1] - Despite the challenges, there is a belief that a rate cut remains a more likely option for the Bank of England [1]

Group 1: Employment Market Challenges - The U.S. job market is facing unprecedented challenges, with June's ADP private sector employment data unexpectedly declining by 33,000 jobs, marking the first negative growth in over two years, contrasting sharply with the expected increase of 100,000 jobs [1] - The average monthly job growth in the first five months of this year was only 124,000, a significant decrease from 168,000 in the same period last year, indicating a weakening economic growth momentum [1] - Structural issues in the economy, such as uncertainty in tariff policies, government layoffs, tightened immigration policies, and demographic trends, are contributing to the slowdown in job growth [1] Group 2: Small Business Impact - Small businesses are under significant pressure, becoming a key driver of the weak job market, with job losses primarily concentrated in this sector [2] - These small enterprises often lack sufficient capital and expertise to cope with challenges such as high tariffs and labor supply shortages, unlike larger companies that demonstrate greater resilience [2] Group 3: Employment Data Reliability - The reliability of official employment data is being questioned due to increasing statistical biases, with the U.S. Labor Department revising monthly non-farm employment data downward by an average of 55,000 jobs from January to April [3] - The initial overestimation of job growth is attributed to the quicker responses from larger, well-capitalized employers, while smaller businesses tend to delay feedback [3] - Structural changes in the labor market, including stagnant growth in the native-born working-age population and a significant reduction in net immigration, complicate the statistical analysis [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy Reevaluation - The Federal Reserve faces a complex decision-making environment regarding interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell emphasizing a data-dependent approach before making any moves [4] - Mixed economic signals complicate policy formulation, as the first quarter's real GDP was revised down to a negative 0.5%, indicating the first economic contraction in three years [4] - Despite the economic pressures from uncertainty in policies, inflationary pressures remain, as evidenced by the core PCE price index rising to 2.7%, the highest since February 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Barr, highlighted that low-income workers are often the most affected during periods of labor market weakness, indicating significant uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and their impacts [1] Group 1 - Low-income workers face the greatest challenges in a weak job market, suggesting a need for targeted support measures [1] - There is considerable uncertainty regarding the effects of tariff policies, which could influence economic conditions and labor markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Macklem, stated that the central bank is closely monitoring the potential expansion of weakness in the labor market [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Canada is paying attention to signs of a weakening job market [1]