Core Viewpoint - The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset is diminishing due to the temporary suspension of certain tariffs between the U.S. and China, but it is expected to retain its appeal amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Economic and Monetary Policy Risks - A significant risk facing the economy is the U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially in light of ongoing pressure from the Trump administration [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained a neutral policy stance this year, with no immediate plans to lower interest rates despite stable inflation risks [1] - If the independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, gold may perform well as it is seen as a counter to potentially manipulated fiat currencies [2] Group 2: Gold Price Predictions - Current gold trading prices are significantly below last month's historical high of $3,500 per ounce, but a new support level and record prices are anticipated [2] - The baseline price forecast for gold is projected at $3,610 per ounce by Q1 2026, with an optimistic scenario suggesting it could reach $4,000 per ounce [2] - The demand for gold is expected to remain high due to rising recession and inflation risks, with historical price increases indicating that a rise to $4,000 per ounce is plausible [2] Group 3: U.S. Credibility Issues - The U.S. faces significant credibility issues as a reliable trading partner, even if the global trade war is resolved [2] - The potential implementation of the "Sea Lake Manor Agreement" could lead to a 20% depreciation of the dollar, further increasing inflation beyond optimistic expectations [3] Group 4: Downside Risks and Strategic Asset Status - While there are some downside risks to gold prices, any declines are expected to be limited due to the current environment of uncertainty [4] - Gold is still viewed as a necessary strategic asset, providing a level of protection for investors amid various uncertainties [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the ongoing tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States, with Japan urging the U.S. to fully withdraw its tariffs on various products, including automobiles and steel [1][3]. - The second round of negotiations took place in Washington, lasting approximately two hours, with Japan's delegation led by the Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akizumi, and the U.S. delegation including key officials such as the Treasury Secretary and the U.S. Trade Representative [1][3]. - Japan's representatives strongly opposed the U.S. proposal centered on "reciprocal tariffs" and called for a comprehensive review of the tariffs imposed on automobiles, steel, and aluminum [3]. Group 2 - The U.S. has recently implemented a 25% tariff on imported auto parts, indicating a lack of consensus in the negotiations and that Japan's demands have not been met [3]. - Japan's automotive industry is crucial to its economy, and any concessions could significantly impact its economic stability, as evidenced by historical tensions in U.S.-Japan trade relations [3][5]. - Public sentiment in Japan shows significant concern over the potential negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy, with 85% of respondents expressing worry [5]. Group 3 - Japan holds a substantial amount of U.S. Treasury bonds, which could be used as leverage in negotiations, suggesting that Japan may consider selling these bonds if pressured by the U.S. [7]. - Japanese officials have expressed a firm stance against increasing military spending in negotiations, indicating a reluctance to compromise on national interests [7]. - The Japanese government is wary of making concessions that could lead to ongoing demands from the U.S., reflecting a broader concern about the nature of U.S.-Japan trade negotiations [7].

石破茂在与特朗普通话时重点提及，日本已连续五年成为对美最大投资国，累计投资额超过1万亿美 元，为美国创造了大量就业岗位。这段话，软硬都可以理解。按软的理解，日本为美国经济没有功劳也 有苦劳，你看，我们为你们创造了那么多的就业岗位，就不能念一点旧情么？按硬的理解，如果如果美 国真的要对日本加关税，到时候美国失业率上升，可别说日本没有有言在先。 签订"广场协议"的五国代表（资料图） 据环球时报报道，1985年，美国召集英国、法国、西德和日本五大工业化国家集团（G5）的政府代表 到纽约开会，讨论如何解决美国严重的贸易逆差和财政赤字问题。会议在纽约的广场酒店召开，9月， 会议产生了一项联合协议，就以酒店的名字命名为"广场协议"。广场协议旨在通过政府干预货币市场， 使美元相对于日元、英镑、法国法郎和德国马克等主要国际货币贬值，从而促进美国出口，平衡贸易逆 差。很多人认为，正是这一协议导致了日本经济"停滞的十年"，其不利影响至今仍在。 与此同时，美日已在华盛顿展开首轮贸易谈判，谈判结束后，特朗普宣称取得"重大进展"，但路透社表 示，美日双方除了同意再次会面外，几乎没有取得进展。日本首相石破茂表示，日本不会为达成关税协 议 ...

在这种背景下，美元资产的吸引力下降，资金自然向其他市场流动。 另外摩根大通表示，目前市场普遍认为，亚洲强势货币背后还有另一个强大推手——多年贸易顺差积累 的巨额美元资产开始回流，构成了强大的外汇对冲压力。 因此在这种背景下，尽管台湾中央银行两次公开澄清"美国财政部未施压要求本地货币升值"，但市场猜 测仍在继续。 市场为何坚信有协议？ 5月初亚洲货币迎来罕见的集体暴涨，其中新台币"大地震"两天飙升6.5%。除了中国台湾寿险巨头正集 体对冲美元敞口之外，市场正热议，中国台湾与美国达成的贸易协议可能包括加强台币汇率、降低其竞 争力的条款，这也加剧了台币的跳涨。 那么，一场幕后版的"海湖庄园协议"真的正在酝酿中吗？ 据追风交易台消息，尽管市场传言纷纷，但摩根大通在其最新外汇策略周报中认为，美元的疲软并非源 自某种协调性协议，而是由基本面等诸多变化推动的，比如美国经济增长预期被下调，贸易冲突的滞胀 担忧加剧；美联储独立性惹争议；美国期限溢价上升与美联储终端利率下降同时出现；德国财政政策转 向宽松，对欧洲资本市场形成支撑等。 而且与1985年广场协议不同，当前亚洲国家（尤其出口导向型经济）手中积累了大量美元资产。在这种 ...

Group 1 - The article outlines five significant fluctuations in the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) exchange rate against the US Dollar, highlighting historical events that influenced these changes [1] - In 1985, the Plaza Accord led to a substantial appreciation of the NTD from 36 to 28 against the USD between 1985 and 1988 [1] - The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis caused the NTD to depreciate from 27.5 to 32.6 by the end of the year, marking a general trend of depreciation [1] Group 2 - In 2015, a significant decline in Taiwan's exports and economic growth resulted in the NTD depreciating from 31.6 to 33.8, a decrease of approximately 6.96% [1] - The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 led to a shift in Taiwan's economic environment, with the NTD appreciating from 30.10 to 28.67, an increase of 4.7% [1] - Concerns over a potential US recession and the exposure of Taiwan's life insurance industry to USD assets have recently triggered hedging operations, causing the NTD to briefly surpass the 30 mark against the USD [1]

日本长期鞍前马后为美国全球战略卖命，没有功劳有苦劳，可特朗普倒好，将关税问题与美日同盟关系 割裂，一方面要求日本继续在反华战场上冲锋陷阵，另一方面则利用对日贸易存在的巨额逆差，磨刀霍 霍要收割日本的财富。尽管特朗普暂停加征日本"对等关税"，但却对日本输美产品保留10%的所谓"基 础关税"。这也就算了，美国之前对日本钢铝产品和汽车加征的25%的关税，并没有被列入豁免清单 中。 换句话说，特朗普就是把他加征的税率当成对日谈判的筹码，以这些虚无的东西换取日本在对美开放市 场，降低甚至撤销进口美国商品关税等问题上做出实质性让步。特朗普这种谈判方式，实际上就是在 玩"空手套白狼"的游戏，即在自身无须付出任何代价的情况下，迫使对方拿出真金白银"回报"他在关税 问题上的豁免，这种手法就跟他套路乌克兰的手段如出一辙。不过，日本不是乌克兰，不但识透特朗普 的套路，同时也有底气跟他说"不"。 据国际在线报道，日本首相石破茂就美日关税谈判问题表示，两国间立场存在隔阂，难以达成协议。他 轻描淡写的一句话，估计让特朗普听了晚上都睡不着觉，这还是那个他一直瞧不起的日本吗？显然，石 破茂做出这番表态，其实因为就是在向美方释放明确信号，日本 ...

4月29日，前美联储副主席、债券巨头Pimco全球经济顾问理查德·克拉里达（Richard Clarida）在英国 《金融时报》发表题为《广场协议和卢浮宫协议的真正教训（The real lessons from the Plaza and Louvre accords）》的专栏文章，对1985年广场协议和1987年卢浮宫协议进行了深入剖析，并"纠正"了长期以来 人们对这两项协议成功因素的普遍认知。 Clarida表示，大家普遍认为1985年的广场协议和1987年的卢浮宫协议之所以成功，主要是靠各国联合出 手干预外汇市场，这才让当时过分强势的美元贬值，也缩小了美国的巨额贸易逆差。 但他认为，这其实是个"神话"，或者说，是个流传甚广的误解。 Clarida强调，真正起决定性作用的，其实是当时美国国内的货币政策和财政政策调整。 从事后看，这两个协议确实达到了目标：到1987年，美元确实有序贬值了；到1989年，美国贸易逆差占 GDP的比重也减少了三分之二。 文章指出，而正是因为这个结果，很多人，甚至一些专业人士都觉得，是各国央行联手在外汇市场上买 卖美元（也就是所谓的"干预"），才促成了美元贬值和贸易平衡。 Cl ...

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's reluctance to fully abandon tariffs against China, indicating ongoing strategic planning despite acknowledging the pain inflicted on the U.S. from the trade war [1] - A senior U.S. journalist suggests that Trump aims to pressure China into signing an unequal agreement, reminiscent of the "Plaza Accord" with Japan [1][3] - The article highlights Trump's proposed "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which seeks to establish a new economic order that diminishes the dollar's dominance and reduces trade deficits, positioning China as a significant obstacle [3] Group 2 - The historical context of the "Plaza Accord" is provided, illustrating how it adversely affected Japan's economy, leading to prolonged economic stagnation [4][6] - The article contrasts Japan's post-WWII dependency on the U.S. with China's current position, emphasizing that China is not as vulnerable to U.S. pressure as Japan was [6][8] - Japan's current stance, as articulated by Prime Minister Kishida, indicates a refusal to make significant concessions to the U.S., reflecting lessons learned from past economic experiences [8]

过了40年，相似的剧本似乎正在韩国上演。美国财长贝森特公开宣称，"率先达成协议者获益最大"，要求韩国在汽车关税、液化天然气项目等领域让步，换 取"美国优先"框架下的贸易优惠。 贝森特给了韩国一个"相当优先"的位置，其在接受彭博社采访时宣称："上周与越南进行了谈判，周三与日本，下周将与韩国展开磋商，进程会非常迅速。" 特朗普把关税"武器化"之后，韩国政坛开始为韩美谈判陷入激烈争论。美国特朗普政府宣布将韩国列为"优先谈判目标"，要求其接受以"对等关税"为核心的 贸易规则重构。 面对美方步步紧逼，韩国代总统韩德洙高调宣称"推进谈判、寻求双赢"，但韩媒《韩民族日报》发出警告，仓促妥协可能让韩国重蹈日本"广场协议"覆辙， 陷入"失去的二十年"的深渊。 1985年，日本在美国压力下签署《广场协议》，被迫让日元大幅升值，最终促使日本经济泡沫破裂，陷入长期停滞。 韩国如果想要破局，需加速与中国、东盟等国家和组织深化合作，减少对美依赖，但政治亲美惯性让这一转型举步维艰。 韩国执政党的"速战速决"策略，或许能换来短期选票，却可能将国家推向让渡经济主权的深渊。如果韩德洙在特朗普飘忽不定的政策下贸然推进谈判，可能 犯下战略错误。 美 ...

据美国《国会山报》报道，特朗普在椭圆形办公室对记者说，"145%是非常高的。不会有那么高的……它将大幅下降，但不会是零。"特朗普还表 示，"我们会表现得很友好。他们（中国）会很友好，我们看看会发生什么。"如果两国能达成协议，关税将下降，这表明他可能会在市场波动中放弃对中国 的强硬立场。 据《卫报》报道，特朗普的言论是对美国财长贝森特22日早些时候言论的回应。贝森特表示，高关税是不可持续的，他预计世界两大经济体之间的贸易 战将"降级"。 SHMET 网讯：据中新网综合报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间22日表示，将"大幅降低"对中国的高额关税。 不过，特朗普避免证实他是否也认为与中国的局势不可持续。白宫记者会上，特朗普对股市上涨表示认可。但在被多次追问如何评价贝森特的言论时， 他一再顾左右而言他，用"我们与中国关系很好""我们有他们想要的东西"一类的口水话，敷衍搪塞记者。 周二晚些时候，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳-莱维特（Karoline Leavitt）也对贝森特与中国的谈判持积极态度，他们试图向紧张的金融市场和投资者保证，与中 国的谈判即将取得进展。但他们都没有表示谈判已经开始。 莱维特在新闻发布会上说，特朗普希望人们知 ...