Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar may further depreciate following the G7 meeting, as global leaders discuss exchange rate policies as part of trade negotiations with the US [1][3] - Citigroup analysts suggest that while Washington is unlikely to actively pursue a weaker dollar, the currency will eventually depreciate as the US reaches agreements to lower tariffs with its trade partners [1] - The focus on exchange rate policy has intensified ahead of the G7 meeting, with officials from South Korea and Taiwan indicating discussions with the US on this topic [1] Group 2 - Citigroup expects that Treasury Secretary Yellen will not seek a comprehensive agreement to suppress the dollar like the 1985 Plaza Accord, but will emphasize the role of central banks in exchange rate issues [3] - Analysts believe the risk of dollar depreciation is increasing, as the motivation for maintaining a strong dollar policy will diminish with the removal of high tariffs [3] - Since the announcement of high tariffs in early April, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has declined by 4%, leading to uncertainty about US policy and damaging confidence in the dollar and other US assets [3]

Group 1 - The recent surge in the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) is perceived to be linked to US-Taiwan tariff negotiations, with speculation that the US is pressuring Taiwan to appreciate its currency to reduce trade deficits [1] - The increase in tariffs imposed by the US on Taiwan has severely impacted local industries, particularly those reliant on exports such as machinery, chemicals, and textiles, exacerbating their operational challenges [1] - The spokesperson from the Taiwan Affairs Office criticized the Taiwanese government's response to US tariff pressures, suggesting that their negotiations are merely performative and that the government is capitulating to US demands [1] Group 2 - The Taiwanese government’s proposed strategies to cope with the economic challenges are viewed as attempts to appease the US through large-scale procurement and investment, which is characterized as a form of submission [1] - There is a call for cross-strait cooperation among Chinese people to safeguard development rights and national dignity in the face of shared risks and challenges [1] - The Taiwan Affairs Office expressed concern for the difficulties faced by local industries and encouraged relevant sectors to invest and develop in mainland China [1]

Core Viewpoint - The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset is diminishing due to the temporary suspension of certain tariffs between the U.S. and China, but it is expected to retain its appeal amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Economic and Monetary Policy Risks - A significant risk facing the economy is the U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially in light of ongoing pressure from the Trump administration [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained a neutral policy stance this year, with no immediate plans to lower interest rates despite stable inflation risks [1] - If the independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, gold may perform well as it is seen as a counter to potentially manipulated fiat currencies [2] Group 2: Gold Price Predictions - Current gold trading prices are significantly below last month's historical high of $3,500 per ounce, but a new support level and record prices are anticipated [2] - The baseline price forecast for gold is projected at $3,610 per ounce by Q1 2026, with an optimistic scenario suggesting it could reach $4,000 per ounce [2] - The demand for gold is expected to remain high due to rising recession and inflation risks, with historical price increases indicating that a rise to $4,000 per ounce is plausible [2] Group 3: U.S. Credibility Issues - The U.S. faces significant credibility issues as a reliable trading partner, even if the global trade war is resolved [2] - The potential implementation of the "Sea Lake Manor Agreement" could lead to a 20% depreciation of the dollar, further increasing inflation beyond optimistic expectations [3] Group 4: Downside Risks and Strategic Asset Status - While there are some downside risks to gold prices, any declines are expected to be limited due to the current environment of uncertainty [4] - Gold is still viewed as a necessary strategic asset, providing a level of protection for investors amid various uncertainties [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the ongoing tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States, with Japan urging the U.S. to fully withdraw its tariffs on various products, including automobiles and steel [1][3]. - The second round of negotiations took place in Washington, lasting approximately two hours, with Japan's delegation led by the Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akizumi, and the U.S. delegation including key officials such as the Treasury Secretary and the U.S. Trade Representative [1][3]. - Japan's representatives strongly opposed the U.S. proposal centered on "reciprocal tariffs" and called for a comprehensive review of the tariffs imposed on automobiles, steel, and aluminum [3]. Group 2 - The U.S. has recently implemented a 25% tariff on imported auto parts, indicating a lack of consensus in the negotiations and that Japan's demands have not been met [3]. - Japan's automotive industry is crucial to its economy, and any concessions could significantly impact its economic stability, as evidenced by historical tensions in U.S.-Japan trade relations [3][5]. - Public sentiment in Japan shows significant concern over the potential negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy, with 85% of respondents expressing worry [5]. Group 3 - Japan holds a substantial amount of U.S. Treasury bonds, which could be used as leverage in negotiations, suggesting that Japan may consider selling these bonds if pressured by the U.S. [7]. - Japanese officials have expressed a firm stance against increasing military spending in negotiations, indicating a reluctance to compromise on national interests [7]. - The Japanese government is wary of making concessions that could lead to ongoing demands from the U.S., reflecting a broader concern about the nature of U.S.-Japan trade negotiations [7].

石破茂在与特朗普通话时重点提及，日本已连续五年成为对美最大投资国，累计投资额超过1万亿美 元，为美国创造了大量就业岗位。这段话，软硬都可以理解。按软的理解，日本为美国经济没有功劳也 有苦劳，你看，我们为你们创造了那么多的就业岗位，就不能念一点旧情么？按硬的理解，如果如果美 国真的要对日本加关税，到时候美国失业率上升，可别说日本没有有言在先。 签订"广场协议"的五国代表（资料图） 据环球时报报道，1985年，美国召集英国、法国、西德和日本五大工业化国家集团（G5）的政府代表 到纽约开会，讨论如何解决美国严重的贸易逆差和财政赤字问题。会议在纽约的广场酒店召开，9月， 会议产生了一项联合协议，就以酒店的名字命名为"广场协议"。广场协议旨在通过政府干预货币市场， 使美元相对于日元、英镑、法国法郎和德国马克等主要国际货币贬值，从而促进美国出口，平衡贸易逆 差。很多人认为，正是这一协议导致了日本经济"停滞的十年"，其不利影响至今仍在。 与此同时，美日已在华盛顿展开首轮贸易谈判，谈判结束后，特朗普宣称取得"重大进展"，但路透社表 示，美日双方除了同意再次会面外，几乎没有取得进展。日本首相石破茂表示，日本不会为达成关税协 议 ...

在这种背景下，美元资产的吸引力下降，资金自然向其他市场流动。 另外摩根大通表示，目前市场普遍认为，亚洲强势货币背后还有另一个强大推手——多年贸易顺差积累 的巨额美元资产开始回流，构成了强大的外汇对冲压力。 因此在这种背景下，尽管台湾中央银行两次公开澄清"美国财政部未施压要求本地货币升值"，但市场猜 测仍在继续。 市场为何坚信有协议？ 5月初亚洲货币迎来罕见的集体暴涨，其中新台币"大地震"两天飙升6.5%。除了中国台湾寿险巨头正集 体对冲美元敞口之外，市场正热议，中国台湾与美国达成的贸易协议可能包括加强台币汇率、降低其竞 争力的条款，这也加剧了台币的跳涨。 那么，一场幕后版的"海湖庄园协议"真的正在酝酿中吗？ 据追风交易台消息，尽管市场传言纷纷，但摩根大通在其最新外汇策略周报中认为，美元的疲软并非源 自某种协调性协议，而是由基本面等诸多变化推动的，比如美国经济增长预期被下调，贸易冲突的滞胀 担忧加剧；美联储独立性惹争议；美国期限溢价上升与美联储终端利率下降同时出现；德国财政政策转 向宽松，对欧洲资本市场形成支撑等。 而且与1985年广场协议不同，当前亚洲国家（尤其出口导向型经济）手中积累了大量美元资产。在这种 ...

Group 1 - The article outlines five significant fluctuations in the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) exchange rate against the US Dollar, highlighting historical events that influenced these changes [1] - In 1985, the Plaza Accord led to a substantial appreciation of the NTD from 36 to 28 against the USD between 1985 and 1988 [1] - The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis caused the NTD to depreciate from 27.5 to 32.6 by the end of the year, marking a general trend of depreciation [1] Group 2 - In 2015, a significant decline in Taiwan's exports and economic growth resulted in the NTD depreciating from 31.6 to 33.8, a decrease of approximately 6.96% [1] - The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 led to a shift in Taiwan's economic environment, with the NTD appreciating from 30.10 to 28.67, an increase of 4.7% [1] - Concerns over a potential US recession and the exposure of Taiwan's life insurance industry to USD assets have recently triggered hedging operations, causing the NTD to briefly surpass the 30 mark against the USD [1]

日本长期鞍前马后为美国全球战略卖命，没有功劳有苦劳，可特朗普倒好，将关税问题与美日同盟关系 割裂，一方面要求日本继续在反华战场上冲锋陷阵，另一方面则利用对日贸易存在的巨额逆差，磨刀霍 霍要收割日本的财富。尽管特朗普暂停加征日本"对等关税"，但却对日本输美产品保留10%的所谓"基 础关税"。这也就算了，美国之前对日本钢铝产品和汽车加征的25%的关税，并没有被列入豁免清单 中。 换句话说，特朗普就是把他加征的税率当成对日谈判的筹码，以这些虚无的东西换取日本在对美开放市 场，降低甚至撤销进口美国商品关税等问题上做出实质性让步。特朗普这种谈判方式，实际上就是在 玩"空手套白狼"的游戏，即在自身无须付出任何代价的情况下，迫使对方拿出真金白银"回报"他在关税 问题上的豁免，这种手法就跟他套路乌克兰的手段如出一辙。不过，日本不是乌克兰，不但识透特朗普 的套路，同时也有底气跟他说"不"。 据国际在线报道，日本首相石破茂就美日关税谈判问题表示，两国间立场存在隔阂，难以达成协议。他 轻描淡写的一句话，估计让特朗普听了晚上都睡不着觉，这还是那个他一直瞧不起的日本吗？显然，石 破茂做出这番表态，其实因为就是在向美方释放明确信号，日本 ...

Core Insights - Richard Clarida argues that the common belief attributing the success of the Plaza and Louvre Accords primarily to coordinated foreign exchange interventions is a myth, emphasizing that U.S. domestic monetary and fiscal policy adjustments were the true driving forces behind the dollar's depreciation and the reduction of the trade deficit [1][2][3] Group 1: Historical Context - The Plaza Accord was signed in September 1985 by the G5 nations to address the soaring dollar and increasing trade deficit, which reached about 3% of GDP [2] - The Louvre Accord followed in February 1987, aiming to stabilize the dollar after it had depreciated sufficiently [2] - By 1989, the U.S. trade deficit as a percentage of GDP had decreased by two-thirds, leading many to mistakenly credit foreign exchange interventions for this outcome [2][3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - Clarida highlights that the significant easing of U.S. monetary policy under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker was the key factor in the dollar's depreciation [4] - From October 1984 to December 1986, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates from 12% to 6%, which correlated with the weakening of the dollar [4][5] - The decline in U.S. interest rates diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, prompting capital to flow to currencies with higher yields [5] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Role - U.S. fiscal adjustments also played a crucial role in reducing the trade deficit, with significant budget cuts leading to a nearly 40% reduction in the budget deficit [6] - The initial Plaza Accord emphasized the need for fiscal adjustments in the U.S., Japan, and Germany to address global trade imbalances, which were effectively implemented in the U.S. [6] Group 4: Contemporary Implications - Clarida discusses the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" concept proposed during Trump's presidency, which aims to apply lessons from the Plaza Accord to current trade issues [7] - He expresses skepticism about the feasibility of using past experiences to guide current policy, citing limited monetary policy space, unclear fiscal prospects, and complex geopolitical dynamics as significant challenges [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's reluctance to fully abandon tariffs against China, indicating ongoing strategic planning despite acknowledging the pain inflicted on the U.S. from the trade war [1] - A senior U.S. journalist suggests that Trump aims to pressure China into signing an unequal agreement, reminiscent of the "Plaza Accord" with Japan [1][3] - The article highlights Trump's proposed "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which seeks to establish a new economic order that diminishes the dollar's dominance and reduces trade deficits, positioning China as a significant obstacle [3] Group 2 - The historical context of the "Plaza Accord" is provided, illustrating how it adversely affected Japan's economy, leading to prolonged economic stagnation [4][6] - The article contrasts Japan's post-WWII dependency on the U.S. with China's current position, emphasizing that China is not as vulnerable to U.S. pressure as Japan was [6][8] - Japan's current stance, as articulated by Prime Minister Kishida, indicates a refusal to make significant concessions to the U.S., reflecting lessons learned from past economic experiences [8]