时隔十年，A股两融余额重回2万亿元。 截至8月5日，A市场融资融券余额达2万亿元，这是自2015年7月1日以来再次突破这一关口。具体来看，沪 市两融余额10192.27亿元，深市两融余额9748.10亿元，北交所两融余额62.22亿元。 与此同时，A股市场交投活跃度持续凸显，单日融资买入额达1635.6亿元，是自7月17日以来单日融资买入 额连续14个交易日突破1500亿元。 据证券时报报道，A股历史上融资余额曾经在2015年的牛市中突破过2万亿元，时间段2015年5月下旬至当 年7月初，共有30个交易日融资余额维持在2万亿元以上，历史最高峰时为2015年6月18日，当时融资余额 为22666.35亿元。 杨德龙表示，今年A股和港股将走出一轮慢牛长牛行情。对于后市，要保持信心和耐心，抓住这一轮牛市 机会，真正获得好的投资回报。 前券商首席经济学家李大霄则提示风险，他认为，越是这个时候越要冷静，散户要避免盲目跟风加杠杆， 尤其需要评估自身风险承受力。 中航证券首席经济学家董忠云认为，6月底沪指三连阳确认经济转型牛主升浪，杠杆资金持续快速流入A 股，市场风险偏好快速提升。去年9月24日一揽子增量政策实施以来，剩余 ...

杨德龙 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 进入8月份，市场出现反复震荡调整的走势，而7月份市场则呈现持续上攻态势，上证指数一度突破3500 点、3600点两个整数关口。近期市场的短期震荡并未改变中长期上涨的逻辑，预计下半年市场仍会进一 步上攻，这轮慢牛、长牛行情已经开启。 5月份市场出现较大调整时，我曾建议大家要坚定信心，今年整体市场呈现结构性牛市走势，5月份的调 整主要源于部分公司年报业绩低预期出现回调，A股市场向来有"五穷、六绝、七翻身"的特点，通常到 7月份市场会迎来上行机会，今年也不例外，目前的走势已初步验证了当时的判断。 近期影响市场的一些短期因素，如关税战，对市场信心产生了一定影响，导致市场短期出现调整。但从 中期来看，稳经济增长的政策在不断落地显效，下半年财政政策会更加积极，降息降准的可能性也在不 断增大。 美国公布的非农就业数据远低于预期且进行了大幅下修，使得美联储9月份降息的概率陡增，预计9月份 可能降息一次，年底会降息两次。美国劳工部公布的数据显示，7月新增就业仅录得7.3万人，大幅低于 预期，且对5月和6月的数据进行了罕见大幅下修，合计削减25.8万个就业岗位。这促使交易员纷纷押注 美联储将降息， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Northbound capital holdings in A-shares have increased significantly due to valuation recovery, policy benefits, and economic resilience, with a total market value reaching 2.29 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025, marking an increase of over 2% from the previous quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Northbound Capital Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the total market value of Northbound capital holdings reached 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of over 2% compared to the end of Q1 2025 [1]. - The total number of shares held by Northbound capital exceeded 123.5 billion, reflecting an increase of over 3% from the previous quarter [1]. - Compared to the end of 2024, the market value of Northbound capital holdings increased by over 80 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Industry and Stock Performance - The sectors with the highest market value held by Northbound capital include electric power equipment, banking, electronics, food and beverage, pharmaceutical biology, non-bank financials, automotive, home appliances, machinery, and non-ferrous metals [2]. - The top ten stocks held by Northbound capital as of Q2 2025 are Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, China Merchants Bank, Yangtze Power, BYD, Ping An Insurance, Zijin Mining, Huichuan Technology, and Mindray [2]. - The investment direction of Northbound capital has shifted from core assets to traditional industries and from old tracks to new tracks, with significant increases in sectors such as non-bank financials, public utilities, and communication [2][3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The A-share market is exhibiting a "dumbbell" characteristic, with technology growth stocks and sectors like biomedicine and new consumption performing well, while stable dividend stocks are favored by conservative investors [3]. - Policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth are expected to further boost consumption, enhancing investor confidence and potentially attracting more capital into the market [3].