Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for natural rubber is experiencing a decline, with the main contract closing at 15,030.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a drop of 2.02% [1] Supply Analysis - Global natural rubber producing regions are currently in the tapping season, with improved weather in Yunnan leading to normal latex production and stable raw material purchasing prices. However, the Hainan region is facing supply constraints due to increased rainfall from Typhoon "Bolaoi," limiting the actual procurement volume for local rubber processing plants [1] Demand Analysis - Tire manufacturing operations are undergoing slight adjustments, with most companies maintaining previous operational levels to build inventory for the post-holiday period. Some smaller semi-steel tire manufacturers are entering maintenance periods early due to insufficient orders, which slightly impacts their capacity utilization rates [1] Market Outlook - The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly. Major producing areas are affected by rainfall and typhoons, which may suppress raw material prices due to anticipated increases in supply. Natural rubber prices are likely to exhibit wide fluctuations in the future [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main focus in the fourth quarter remains on the US biofuel policy and China-US/China-Canada relations, with policy impacts far outweighing fundamentals. After policies are gradually implemented, long opportunities mainly in palm oil are favored [5]. - The US is the biggest variable in the international oil market in the fourth quarter. The biofuel policy, especially the blending targets for 2026 - 27, as well as the redistribution plan for small refineries and the RINs coefficient for imported raw materials, will directly affect US soybean oil demand and the international oil price center [101]. - Palm oil will be influenced by US soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and it has its own drivers. The supply side may face early - onset production cuts and potential extreme rainfall due to La Nina, while the demand side focuses on Indonesia's B40 plan and potential B50 policies [102]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Market Review - Internationally, Malaysian palm oil (MPO) outperformed US soybean oil in the third quarter. US soybean oil prices fluctuated around policy expectations and market rumors, and dropped below 50 cents/pound at the end of September. MPO remained at a high level supported by supply - demand patterns and US soybean oil prices [11]. - Domestically, the three major oils showed an upward trend with significant differences in strength. Palm oil followed the international market, while soybean and rapeseed oils were more affected by policies. Palm oil had a supply - demand weak situation, soybean oil had a strong de - stocking expectation but was still accumulating inventory, and rapeseed oil had a slow de - stocking speed due to high inventory and weak consumption [14]. 3.2 International Market Outlook 3.2.1 North and South America - **US**: - The planting and harvested areas of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased significantly. Although the current yield per acre is ideal, there is still a possibility of a decline due to insufficient rainfall [19]. - The biofuel policy is beneficial to US soybean crushing demand, but the room for further significant increases in crushing is limited. The proportion of soybean oil in biofuel raw materials has rebounded, and the 45Z subsidy and increased RVO obligations from 2026 will further boost soybean oil demand [22][25]. - There is a large divergence in the market regarding the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions. EPA's proposed re - allocation has caused dissatisfaction among refineries [38]. - After the signing of the Big and Beautiful Act, the 45Z clean fuel tax credit has become law, which will lead to a substitution of a large part of UCO and tallow demand by North - American sourced soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and corn oil [42]. - If the EPA's proposed blending targets are met, there will be a supply gap in US soybean oil in 2026, which can only be filled by increasing imports. However, due to policy uncertainties, significant growth in soybean oil consumption in the fourth quarter is unlikely [44]. - **Canada**: - The final production forecast of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is 20.1 million tons. China's anti - dumping tax on Canadian rapeseed is negative for its price, but the impact will be mitigated by expanded domestic crushing capacity and alternative export markets. Domestic crushing is expected to increase slightly, while exports will decline to 7 million tons [47]. - The price difference between European and Canadian rapeseed makes the EU have an incentive to import Canadian rapeseed. The improvement in domestic rapeseed crushing margins and the support for biofuel development offset the impact of reduced Chinese purchases [51]. 3.2.2 Asia - **Malaysian Palm Oil (MPO)**: - As of the third quarter, MPO had sufficient inventory, but production cuts may start earlier in September due to weather conditions. In the fourth quarter, the probability of La Nina increases, and there is a risk of floods and over - expected production cuts [53][70]. - MPO's domestic demand is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, mainly due to potential CPO exports as POME to the EU and the support of biodiesel consumption [59]. - In terms of demand, MPO exports may recover slightly in the fourth quarter, with a peak in October. If US soybean oil can support the global soybean oil price center, palm oil may still be the preferred choice for countries like India [73]. - The pressure on MPO to accumulate inventory has passed, and it is expected to start de - stocking in September - October and accelerate the process in the fourth quarter [76]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil (IPO)**: - IPO production has recovered well this year, but the potential impact of the government's crackdown on illegal plantations remains. The transfer of plantation management may lead to supply uncertainties [79]. - It is difficult to achieve both high exports and high inventory in Indonesia. Domestic demand is more rigid, and the B40 plan needs to catch up in the fourth quarter. The inventory is expected to remain at around 2 million tons [83]. - The biodiesel industry in Indonesia is suffering serious losses, but it has little impact on actual blending. As of July 16, 2025, the B40 plan completion rate was about 47.51%. To complete the plan, there is still a large amount of remaining allocation and palm oil consumption required [90][91]. - **India**: - Before the Diwali festival, India's vegetable oil inventory is still low. In August, palm oil imports increased significantly, while soybean oil imports decreased. The total edible oil imports reached a 13 - month high [94]. - After replenishing inventory from June - August, India still has a need to continue purchasing and accumulating inventory. In the fourth quarter, India is expected to mainly purchase palm oil and South American soybean oil, with palm oil imports showing a trend of high in the early part and low in the late part [97][100]. 3.3 Domestic Market Outlook - **Palm Oil**: - In the fourth quarter, domestic palm oil is expected to maintain a supply - demand weak situation, following the international market. The narrowing import profit margin has led to an increase in purchases, and the inventory has reached a relatively high level, which is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [104][106]. - **Soybean Oil**: - In the third quarter, domestic soybean oil inventory accumulated rapidly due to a large amount of soybean arrivals and weak consumption. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to gradually de - stock, but inventory may still accumulate until the middle and late fourth quarter and then turn to de - stocking. Although exports have increased significantly, the possibility of large - scale exports continuing is low after India's备货 ends [111][134]. - If there is no reconciliation between China and the US and no purchase of US soybeans, there may be a shortage of soybean oil in the first quarter of next year [117]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - Currently, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is extremely high, especially after the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The import of rapeseed has decreased significantly, and the oil mill's rapeseed intake has shrunk year - on - year. The开机 rate is expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter [120][125]. - The high price of rapeseed oil has led to low consumption, and it has been mostly replaced by soybean oil. Near the Double Festival, demand is expected to improve slightly [128]. - Russia has become the main source of China's rapeseed oil imports. Although imports can supplement the short - term supply, they cannot fully make up for the long - term gap caused by the lack of Canadian rapeseed [131]. 3.4 Strategies and Summary - The core is the US biofuel policy, which affects the global oil price center. Before the policy is determined, the market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 50 - 60 cents/pound [137]. - **Palm Oil**: - In the fourth quarter, palm oil is driven by supply and biodiesel. It is expected that Indonesia's B40 plan can be successfully completed, and domestic demand will increase. After the US biofuel policy is settled, palm oil prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategies are to go long on the palm oil 01 contract, conduct 1 - 5 positive spreads, and shrink the soybean - palm oil 01 contract price difference [137]. - **Soybean Oil**: - The current situation of the soybean oil market is weak, and it is difficult to see de - stocking in the short term. The inventory pressure may ease in the second half of the fourth quarter, but supply shortages are unlikely to occur. The recommended strategy is to shrink the soybean - palm oil 01 contract price difference [137]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - The spot supply of rapeseed oil is relatively sufficient, but the supply gap of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is highly certain, and the market sentiment for going long is better than that of soybean oil. The recommended strategies are to go long on the rapeseed oil 01 contract and conduct 1 - 5 positive spreads [137].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The overall supply - demand pattern of soda ash is still bearish, and a short - selling strategy during rebounds is recommended. For glass, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. In the fourth quarter, the implementation of policies and the load regulation of soda ash plants should be tracked [1]. Logs - The log market is in a volatile pattern. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, the improvement of shipment volume should be observed. Currently, the market lacks a strong upward driving force, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [3]. Industrial Silicon - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the balance is shifting to a more relaxed state. In the short term, the upward driving force is insufficient, and the price may fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and Sichuan - Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [4]. Polysilicon - The supply - side regulation effect of polysilicon is not as expected, and the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. Before the National Day holiday, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Policies on capacity clearance and industry storage, as well as the actual operation rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, should be followed [5]. Natural Rubber - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market has no obvious long - short contradictions, and the trading atmosphere is cautious. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. The raw material output in the peak - production period of the main producing areas and the possible impact of La Nina should be monitored [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in different regions remained unchanged, while glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 declined. Soda ash prices in different regions were stable, and the soda ash 2509 contract decreased slightly. The basis of some contracts increased [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased. Photovoltaic daily melting volume and the price of 3.2mm coated film remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory inventory decreased, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [1]. Market Situation - The over - supply problem still exists. Although the factory inventory has decreased, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches. The weekly production remains high, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. For glass, the deep - processing orders are still weak [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Some log futures contracts fluctuated slightly, and the prices of some spot logs increased. The basis of some contracts increased [3]. Supply - The monthly port shipment volume and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased. The inventory in major ports decreased [3]. Demand - The average daily shipment volume increased [3]. Market Situation - The log market is in a volatile state, with low trading volume. The short - term upward driving force is lacking [3]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some industrial silicon products decreased slightly, and the basis of some products increased [4]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed significantly [4]. Fundamental Data - The production of industrial silicon, organic silicon DMC, and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon increased [4]. Inventory - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while the inventory in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. The social inventory remained unchanged [4]. Market Situation - The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the balance is becoming more relaxed. The price may fluctuate in a certain range in the short term [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon products were mostly stable, and the basis of N - type materials increased [5]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main futures contract of polysilicon decreased, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon increased. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed [5]. Inventory - The polysilicon inventory increased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [5]. Market Situation - The over - capacity problem of polysilicon persists, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range before the holiday [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some natural rubber products decreased, and the basis and non - standard price difference changed [6]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of natural rubber contracts changed significantly [6]. Fundamental Data - The production of natural rubber in some countries in July changed. The tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber increased [6]. Inventory - The bonded area inventory and factory futures inventory of natural rubber decreased [6]. Market Situation - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market is in a volatile state. The supply may increase due to reduced rainfall in Southeast Asia, and the demand faces export and domestic sales pressure [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various agricultural and related commodity markets, providing short - and long - term outlooks and investment suggestions for each commodity. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some commodities expected to be weak, some to be in a range - bound state, and others with potential for short - term rebounds [1][6][8]. Summary by Commodity 1. Livestock - **Pig**: In the short term, the planned pig出栏量 in September increased by 4% month - on - month, and the completion rate was 64.6%. There is still significant pressure at the end of the month. In the medium term, the number of pigs for sale is expected to increase in Q4. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy of reducing 1 million sows is implemented, the supply pressure will ease in the second half of 2026. The outlook is weak - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage strategies [1][8]. 2. Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The outlook is that soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate, while rapeseed oil will oscillate with a stronger bias. The US soybean harvest is normal, but the good - quality rate is decreasing. The domestic soybean import volume will seasonally decline, and the soybean oil inventory will peak. The palm oil inventory accumulation in September may be limited, and the rapeseed oil inventory will decline. Attention should be paid to trade relations, supply in producing areas, and overseas biodiesel demand [6]. 3. Protein Meals - **Protein Meals**: The outlook is that both soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate. Internationally, the US crop harvest is progressing well, and Brazil's sowing has a record - fast start. Domestically, there is support from pre - holiday stocking, but the inventory pressure is large. The supply of soybean meal is expected to increase in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Attention should be paid to the impact of pig "anti - involution" on sentiment [6][7]. 4. Grains - **Corn/Starch**: New grain is gradually coming onto the market. In the short term, there is pressure from the concentrated listing of new grain, but there may be a small rebound before the holiday. In the long term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [7][8]. 5. Rubbers - **Natural Rubber**: The short - term fundamentals are supportive, and the market is expected to maintain a range - bound state. The market has a strong spot, is de - stocking, and the basis is narrowing. However, there is an expectation of increased supply in Q4. Attention should be paid to raw material prices and domestic social inventory changes [10][11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market will continue to oscillate within a range. There are many device overhauls expected from September to November, and the price is at a low level, so the bearish sentiment has cooled, but there is no continuous upward driving force [12]. 6. Fibers - **Cotton**: The medium - term outlook is weak - side oscillation. The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production in the 25/26 season will bring supply pressure. Before the holiday, the price fluctuation will narrow. After the holiday, as new cotton is listed, the downward driving force will increase. Attention should be paid to the seed cotton purchase price and trade negotiations [12]. 7. Sweeteners - **Sugar**: In the short term (around National Day), it will oscillate, and the decline may slow down with a potential for a rebound. In Q4, as new sugar is listed in the Northern Hemisphere, the supply pressure will increase, and the price is expected to be weak - side oscillating. Attention should be paid to production data in Brazil's central - southern region [13][14]. 8. Pulps and Papers - **Pulp**: The market is weak - side oscillating. The downstream paper production peak is coming to an end, and the supply is in an oversupply situation. Although there is support from the delivery price, there is no clear upward logic [16]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The market is weak - side oscillating. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is not strong, and there is no clear upward or downward driving force in the short term. The long - term outlook is weak [17]. 9. Logs - **Logs**: The market will oscillate around 800 before the holiday. The spot price is stable, the inventory is being de - stocked, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. However, the delivery situation has a negative impact on the market, and the selling hedging pressure is large [19][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "shockingly weak" [1][2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international policy is loose but highly uncertain, while the domestic policy aims for stable growth but the domestic demand momentum needs to be released. The inflation pressure in the US has not completely subsided, and the market bets on further interest rate cuts by the end of the year, but the risk of "recessionary interest rate cuts" should be vigilant. There are still differences in the Sino-US tariff negotiations. In May 2025, some additional tariffs were cancelled, but the US has not clearly adjusted the 20% tariff related to "fentanyl" and the 10% basic tariff, and there are still significant variables in the later stage. Domestically, the official has introduced a series of economic stabilization policies, and the market expects a possible interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut in the fourth quarter; the capital activity has increased marginally, but the domestic demand policy still needs to be strengthened [5][64]. - Globally, the cotton production in the 2025/26 season has been increased month-on-month, with China, India, and Australia being the main sources of incremental production, offsetting the production cuts in some regions. The US production has slightly increased, but there is a risk of a downward revision of the unit yield due to the drought in the main producing areas. The global ending inventory has dropped to the lowest in nearly four years, the inventory-consumption ratio has decreased, and the supply and demand have shifted to a tight balance. The trade flow has been restructured due to Sino-US frictions, and China has reduced its purchase of US cotton and shifted to other cotton-producing countries. Domestically, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has increased year-on-year, and the sufficient accumulated temperature has helped to improve the unit yield. The total production is expected to increase significantly, the harvest time is advanced, the pre-sale volume of new cotton has increased significantly, and the hedging position has moved forward, suppressing the short-term supply elasticity. The risk preference of ginning factories has dropped to a low level due to continuous losses, the effective production capacity has been reduced, the shortage pattern of seed cotton has reversed, and at the same time, the port and industrial and commercial inventories are running at a low level, the import volume has shrunk, and the domestic supply is more dependent on new cotton. There is a game between cotton farmers and ginning factories regarding the opening price [5][68]. - Global consumption has been slightly adjusted upward but shows significant differentiation. China's "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has driven consumption growth, while countries such as Turkey and Pakistan have dragged down the global demand recovery due to weak textile exports. The import of textiles and clothing in Europe and the US has improved marginally, but the inventories of wholesalers are at a high level and the willingness to replenish stocks is weak. The orders of processing countries in Southeast Asia are mainly short-term orders, and there is a shortage of long-term orders. Domestically, the characteristics of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season are not significant. Although the operating rate of textile enterprises has rebounded, it is still lower than the same period in previous years. The order increment is limited and mainly consists of small and short-term orders. The inventories of yarn, grey cloth, and textile enterprise raw materials have been continuously reduced but are still at a high level in the same period. Textile enterprises have a low willingness to actively stock up due to profit losses (cash flow losses for inland enterprises and small profits for Xinjiang enterprises). Exports show the characteristic of "trading volume for price", and the proportion of exports to emerging markets has increased to offset the decline in demand from Europe and the US [5][68]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the third quarter, the Zhengzhou cotton futures generally showed a volatile trend of "rising first and then falling". In July, the domestic planting area increased in the new year, and the weather conditions were generally favorable for cotton growth. The market was optimistic about the later production, but the old crop inventory was low, and at the same time, the downstream production capacity was excessive. The old crop basis was running at a high level, which supported the Zhengzhou cotton price. The Zhengzhou cotton ran strongly to 14,200 - 14,300 yuan/ton. For US cotton, although some producing areas encountered certain weather problems, the overall impact was limited, and the market's expectation of US cotton production was still relatively stable. The price fluctuated between 67 - 68 cents/pound [6]. - In August, as the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere entered the critical growth stage, the impact of weather factors on the market became more significant. The weather in the Xinjiang production area in China was good, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of Xinjiang cotton increased. At the same time, the near-month Zhengzhou cotton continued to reduce its positions and decline, reflecting that the real willingness of long - term funds to take delivery was relatively low. In the US, continuous drought weather occurred in some main cotton - producing areas, resulting in a decrease in the good - quality rate of US cotton. However, due to market concerns that the Sino - US tariff negotiations would fall short of expectations, leading to continued sluggish exports of new crops, the US cotton price still maintained a volatile and weak operation [6]. - In September, as the new cotton was approaching the market, the game among all parties in the market intensified. At the macro level, the domestic introduced a series of economic stabilization policies, which boosted the sentiment of the commodity market. Driven by the positive market sentiment, the Zhengzhou cotton rushed up to near the previous high again, but due to the gradual listing of new cotton and the less - than - expected recovery of orders from downstream textile enterprises, the Zhengzhou cotton fell again. At the end of the month, the price of the main contract closed at 13,600 - 13,700 yuan/ton. For US cotton, as the new cotton began to be harvested one after another, the market's expectation of production gradually became clear. Although there was some production reduction due to previous weather problems, the demand side was still weak. The US cotton price fluctuated and fell after rushing up, and the price of the main contract closed at around 69 cents/pound at the end of the month [7]. 2. International Cotton Market 2.1 Global Trade Flow Reconstruction - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by more than 230,000 tons month - on - month to 25.62 million tons. The main sources of incremental production were China, India, and Australia. The global cotton consumption increased by 180,000 tons month - on - month to 25.87 million tons, mainly driven by the recovery of consumption in China. The global cotton trade volume increased by 20,000 tons month - on - month. India and Australia were the main sources of export increment, and Vietnam and Turkey were the main sources of import increment. The global cotton trade generally maintained an expanding trend, but the Sino - US trade friction led to the gradual reconstruction of the global trade flow [13]. - Affected by the reduction of the initial inventory, the global cotton ending inventory decreased by nearly 170,000 tons month - on - month to 15.92 million tons, the lowest level in nearly four years. The global cotton inventory - consumption ratio dropped to 45%, down 1 percentage point month - on - month and 0.7 percentage points year - on - year, indicating that the global cotton "de - stocking" process continued, and the supply - demand pattern gradually switched from "loose" to "tight balance" [14]. 2.2 United States: Drought in Producing Areas and Obstructed Exports - In terms of new crop production, the USDA September supply - demand report showed that the estimated unit yield of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 861 pounds/acre, down 1 pound/acre month - on - month, but the estimated harvest area was 7.37 million acres, up 10,000 acres month - on - month, resulting in a slight increase in the total production to 2.88 million tons, up 2,000 tons month - on - month. The adjustment of the unit yield was due to the continuous expansion of the drought area in the main US cotton - producing areas. As of September 16, 2025, about 41% of the US cotton - producing areas were affected by drought. As of September 22, 2025, the overall good - quality rate of US cotton plants was 52%, down 2 percentage points from the previous week [16][17]. - In terms of exports, from September 12 - 18, 2025, the export signing volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 18,500 tons, down 54% from the previous week and the average level of the previous four weeks. The weekly export shipment volume was 31,100 tons, up 14% from the previous week and 6% from the average level of the previous four weeks. China continued to be absent from the new - season US cotton procurement. As of the week of September 18, 2025, the total sales progress of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 7.7%, indicating that US cotton faced difficulties in the international market and its competitiveness needed to be improved [18]. - In terms of tariff negotiations, in May 2025, China and the US agreed to cancel the additional 91% tariffs imposed after April 2, but the US still had uncertainties in tariff policies. The market expected that the possibility of reducing the 10% (basic reciprocal tariff) was low; the 20% fentanyl tariff was expected to be reduced, but the reduction range was not clear; the reduction range of the 24% additional reciprocal tariff also depended on the negotiation results of both sides [19]. 2.3 Brazil: Both Supply and Sales Increase - For the old crop, in the 2024/25 season, the cotton planting area in Brazil continued to expand, with the national cotton planting area reaching about 2.09 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 155,000 hectares (+7.3%). The average unit yield was 1,887 kg/hectare (-0.9%), equivalent to 125.8 kg/mu. Driven by the large increase in area, the total cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season reached 3.94 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 233,000 tons (+6.3%), setting a new historical record [37]. - For the new crop, it is predicted that the cotton planting area in Brazil will be 2.14 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%, and the output is expected to be 3.96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The average unit yield is 1,849 kg/hectare, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. The main risk to the new - crop unit yield comes from the uncertainty of climate conditions. In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's total cotton exports reached 2.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, making it the world's largest cotton exporter again. As of mid - September 2025, the pre - sale progress of Brazil's 2025/26 season cotton had reached 26% [40]. 2.4 India: Production Increases and Demand Stabilizes - In terms of production, the USDA latest report estimated that the cotton production in India in the 2025/26 season would be 4.16 million bales, with a planting area of 11.2 million hectares and a unit yield of 372 kg/hectare. The CAI predicted that the new - crop unit yield would increase by about 10% [42]. - In terms of imports, as of July 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume of India in the 2024/25 season (2024.8 - 2025.7) was 604,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 284.5%, at a historical high. The CAI latest supply - demand data adjusted the cotton import volume of India in the 2024/25 season to 3.9 million bales [42][43]. - In terms of exports, the USDA September report showed that the cotton export of India in the 2024/25 season decreased by 40,000 tons month - on - month to 280,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. The CAI estimated that the export in the 2024/25 season would be 1.8 million bales, lower than 2.836 million bales in the 2023/24 season. The export destinations were still concentrated in Southeast Asia, but the shares of major countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, and China all declined significantly [43]. - In terms of domestic consumption, the CAI estimated that as of the end of August 2025, the domestic cotton consumption in India in the 2024/25 season was 5.34 million tons, basically the same month - on - month and year - on - year [43]. 2.5 Southeast Asia: Total Volume Increases Steadily and Structure Differs - Southeast Asia has become the core destination for the transfer of global cotton spinning production capacity. Affected by the 50% tariff imposed by the US on Indian goods, a large number of Indian cotton product orders have been transferred to Southeast Asia. Vietnam, Bangladesh and other countries' yarn mills' cotton consumption demand has increased significantly. Vietnam has an advantage in tariff competition in the European and American markets and has become the preferred destination for export - oriented orders [45]. - Southeast Asia itself lacks cotton production and depends entirely on imports for raw materials. In the 2025/26 season, the cotton planting area in Pakistan is expected to be 1.85 million hectares, a decrease of 7.5% from the previous year. The output is predicted to be adjusted down to 1.05 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [46][47]. 3. Domestic Cotton Market 3.1 Supply: High Pressure from New Crops - For the old crop inventory, as of August 31, 2025, the total national social cotton inventory was 2.37 million tons, including 890,000 tons of industrial inventory and 1.48 million tons of commercial inventory, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% and 14.0% respectively, significantly lower than 3 million tons in the same period in 2024. After entering September, the pace of old - crop inventory depletion slowed down slightly but remained at a low level. Spot transactions were dull, and textile enterprises mainly made rigid purchases [49]. - For the new crop output, in terms of area, according to the data of the National Cotton Market Monitoring System in July 2025, the national actual cotton sown area was 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%; among them, the actual sown area in the Xinjiang cotton area was 43.58 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In terms of unit yield, the comprehensive climate from sowing to boll - opening in the Xinjiang cotton area was suitable. The China Cotton Association data showed that the estimated unit yield of Xinjiang cotton in 2025 was 169 kg/mu, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. Market institutions estimated that the output range was between 7.08 - 7.7 million tons [49][50]. - In terms of imports, since 2025, the domestic cotton import volume has decreased significantly year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 513,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. It may increase slightly from September to December due to the implementation of processing trade quotas, but it will still be relatively stable throughout the year [50]. 3.2 Demand: High and Stable in Xinjiang, Differentiated in Inland Areas - The operating rate of domestic yarn mills shows a pattern of "high and stable in Xinjiang, differentiated in inland areas". The operating rate of Xinjiang yarn mills is significantly better than that of inland areas. Since 2025, the operating rate of large - scale yarn mills in Xinjiang has been stable in the range of 80% - 90%. From the raw material end, the expected local cotton output in Xinjiang is sufficient, and yarn mills can purchase nearby, which not only has a stable supply but also saves long - distance transportation costs. From the industrial environment, in recent years, Xinjiang has continuously increased its support for the textile industry, and the policy dividends have attracted a large amount of investment [55]. - The demand for cotton in inland yarn mills shows a differentiated pattern of "stable for leading enterprises, sluggish for small and medium - sized enterprises", and the overall demand is weaker than that in Xinjiang. Large - scale inland yarn mills have relatively stable demand for cotton procurement, while small and medium - sized yarn mills face multiple operating pressures. On the one hand, the terminal consumer market demand is weak, and it is difficult to obtain orders, and most of them are small and short - term orders. On the other hand, the costs of raw material procurement, labor, transportation, etc. continue to rise, and the profit space of enterprises is compressed. Some enterprises have tight cash flow, and the operating rate can only be maintained at 50% - 60%, and there are even intermittent shutdown situations [56][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - 4Q25 macro - tone is generally favorable for precious metals, but price volatility is expected to increase. Market expectations of interest - rate cut rhythm, economic outlook interpretations, and supply bottlenecks of platinum and palladium will drive price fluctuations and asset performance differentiation [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, the contradiction lies in whether macro - level benefits can offset micro - level demand weakness and supply contradictions. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely between the bottom range provided by macro - level easing expectations and the top range formed by industrial fundamentals pressure [2][45]. - The core drivers of black commodities will revolve around policy uncertainty and demand effectiveness. Prices are supported in the early stage but face significant downward risks in the middle and later stages of the quarter [3][57]. - The core contradiction of energy and chemical commodities is whether macro - level easing expectations can offset the fundamental pressure at the bottom of the industrial cycle. 4Q25 will be a bottom - grinding process [4][76]. - For agricultural products, export - country control measures may create artificial supply shortages and upward price risks, while import - country procurement rhythms, quota management, and domestic substitution policies form downward price pressure. La Nina - induced supply contraction expectations and current supply pressures and weak global macro - demand will drive price trends [5][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals: Risks after the Interest - Rate Cut "Boot Drops" - **Monetary Policy Path Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut in September started a new round of easing, but the rhythm, depth, and end - point of the subsequent path are uncertain. Hawkish risks (slower - than - expected rate cuts) will push up the US dollar index and real yields of US Treasuries, negatively affecting precious metals. Dovish risks (faster - than - expected rate cuts) will be a major positive for all precious metals [13][23][26]. - **Economic "Landing" Form Risk**: The market will sway among "soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery scenarios in 4Q25. A "soft landing" is beneficial for the precious - metal sector as a whole. A "hard landing" will lead to significant differentiation within the sector, with gold rising and silver, platinum, and palladium potentially falling. Premature recovery trading may cause gold to face pressure while silver and platinum may benefit [29][30][31]. - **Supply - Side and Geopolitical Risk**: Supply - side risks mainly affect platinum and palladium due to their concentrated production in South Africa and Russia. Any production interruption in these countries can cause price surges. Geopolitical risks will increase the volatility of gold and silver, with gold having a more sustainable safe - haven premium [33][35]. - **Structural Market Dynamic Change Risk**: The sustainability of central - bank gold - buying demand is in doubt. The "platinum - for - palladium" substitution in the automotive industry is a long - term negative for palladium and a positive for platinum. Speculative funds in the precious - metal market are profit - seeking and volatile, which can amplify price fluctuations [37][42][44]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals: Macro - Level Benefits and Industrial Weakness Risks - **Macro - Economic Narrative Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut provides support for non - ferrous metals, but different economic scenarios ("soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery) will have different impacts on non - ferrous metals. A "soft landing" is beneficial for copper, aluminum, and lithium to different extents. A "hard landing" will hit all industrial non - ferrous metals. Premature recovery trading will bring a "Davis double - click" for copper and aluminum [45][46][47]. - **Sino - Foreign Policy - Level Risk**: China's "anti - involution" policies may affect the supply of polysilicon, industrial silicon, and potentially copper and aluminum. Trade frictions, political instability in Guinea, and lithium - mine supply risks in Africa also pose threats to non - ferrous metals [50][52]. - **Supply - Side Bottleneck Risk**: Global copper - mine supply is tight, which is a strong support for copper prices. The resumption time of some lithium mines in China is uncertain, which creates two - way risks for lithium prices [53][55]. 3.3 Black Commodities: Policy Game and Demand Downturn Risks - **Downstream Demand Structural Differentiation and Total Slowdown Risk**: The real - estate industry's weakness suppresses the demand for construction steel and the entire black - commodity chain. The manufacturing industry provides support for plate - type steel, but its demand may face challenges in 4Q25. Infrastructure investment may also slow down, affecting the demand for construction steel [58][59][60]. - **Supply - Side Policy Risk**: The implementation of the "flat - control" policy for crude - steel production is uncertain. Strict implementation will benefit steel prices but harm raw - material prices, while non - implementation or under - implementation will lead to supply - surplus pressure on steel prices [66]. - **Raw - Material Supply - Side Structural Risk**: Iron - ore supply is expected to increase seasonally, which may lead to price declines. Coking - coal supply, especially for high - quality coking coal, is tight, which supports coking - coal and coke prices and squeezes steel - mill profits [70][71]. - **Inventory and Market Structural Risk**: Steel inventories face a cyclical inflection point. If post - holiday demand is weak, it will lead to passive inventory accumulation and price declines. Iron - ore port inventories may accumulate, which will pressure iron - ore prices [74]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals: Long - Term Capacity Clearance and Prolonged Bottom - Grinding Risks - **Geopolitical and Supply - Side Seasonal Risk**: Geopolitical risks, such as the situation in the Red Sea and OPEC+ production policies, can affect oil prices. In winter, natural - gas supply shortages in Iran may increase methanol prices, and LPG supply may also be affected [77][81]. - **Inventory Level and Industrial - Chain Internal Profit Risk**: The global crude - oil market is expected to enter a stocking phase in 4Q25, which may put downward pressure on oil prices. High inventories of some chemicals, such as methanol and LPG, will suppress their prices. Profit - distribution contradictions in the chemical industrial chain are intensifying [83][84][87]. - **Structural Over - Capacity and Industry Profit - Cycle Risk**: The chemical industry is in a long - term over - capacity situation. Polyolefins, methanol, and LPG are severely affected. The process of capacity clearance is slow, and the low - price, low - profit industry pattern will persist [89][90]. 3.5 Agricultural Products: Risks under Policy and Weather Interference - **Key Countries' Policy Risk**: Export - control measures of major agricultural - product exporters can cause price surges, while import - country policies, such as China's procurement and quota management, can limit price increases [92]. - **Terminal Demand Weakness Risk**: Global economic slowdown weakens consumer purchasing power, affecting the demand for cotton, oils, sugars, and feed raw materials. China's internal demand also has structural risks, and changes in bio - fuel policies can affect the demand for corn and vegetable oils [98][100][103]. - **Global Supply Cycle Risk**: The concentrated listing of Northern - Hemisphere autumn - harvest crops brings short - term supply pressure. The long - term supply situation is affected by policies and climate [91]. - **Global Climate Risk**: The evolution towards La Nina poses risks to the upcoming Southern - Hemisphere sowing season and Southeast - Asian production [91].

Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The soda ash market has a fundamental surplus problem. Although the inventory of manufacturers has decreased recently, the inventory has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium - term, the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern, and the market may face further pressure without actual production capacity withdrawal or load reduction. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and it is recommended to operate with a short - selling idea [1]. - The glass market has seen rumors about glass enterprises' meetings pushing up the market sentiment. The spot market transaction has become stronger before the festival, but the mid - stream inventory in some areas remains high. In the long - term, the real estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the over - supply dilemma [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass - related prices and spreads -华北报价 rose from 1210 to 1220, an increase of 0.83%;华东报价 rose from 1290 to 1320, an increase of 2.33%;华中 and华南 quotes remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased, and the 05 basis increased by 12.14% [1]. Soda ash - related prices and spreads -华北,华东,华中, and西北 quotes remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased, and the 05 basis increased by 19.23% [1]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased from 87.29% to 85.53%, a decrease of 2.02%; the weekly soda ash output decreased from 76.11 tons to 74.57 tons, a decrease of 2.02%. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory decreased by 1.10%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [1]. Real estate data - The new - construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [1]. Report on Rubber Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market has no obvious long - or short - side contradictions. Due to capital risk - aversion, the trading atmosphere is relatively cautious, and the rubber price may fluctuate and consolidate. In the future, the supply may be affected by weather conditions such as typhoons and the possible occurrence of La Nina phenomenon. The demand faces export pressure, and the domestic sales pressure may increase. It is expected that the short - term rubber price will fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 to 16,500 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot prices and basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber decreased by 0.34%, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged, the price of cup rubber increased by 0.20%, and the price of glue decreased by 0.90%. The prices of some raw materials in Hainan decreased [3]. Monthly spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 66.67%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 36.36%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 25.00% [3]. Fundamental data - In July, the rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed, with Thailand increasing by 1.61%, Indonesia increasing by 12.09%, and India decreasing by 2.17%. The production in China decreased slightly. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly, the domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10%, and the tire export quantity decreased by 5.46%. The total import quantity of natural rubber in July increased by 2.47%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber in August increased by 4.76% [3]. Inventory changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased by 3.07%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed [3]. Report on Logs 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The log market is in a volatile pattern, with a relatively low trading volume. As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, it is necessary to observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. Currently, the daily average shipment volume has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. Due to the poor willingness of buyers to take delivery and the suppression of the selling hedging disk on the market, there is a lack of strong upward momentum. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and spot prices - The prices of some log futures contracts fluctuated. The prices of spot logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged, and the foreign - market quotes also remained unchanged [4]. Cost: Import cost calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased slightly [4]. Supply: Monthly - The port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% [4]. Inventory: Main ports (weekly) - The total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 3.31%, with the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreasing [4]. Demand: Daily average outbound volume (weekly) - The daily average outbound volume of logs in China decreased by 5%, with the volume in Shandong decreasing by 11% and that in Jiangsu increasing by 4% [4]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - From a fundamental perspective, the supply - demand balance of industrial silicon will gradually become looser from September to October. The supply is expected to reach a high level in October, and then narrow in November. The increase in the cost of the flat - dry season in the southwest region brings positive sentiment to the market. In the short - term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the silicon price may turn to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8,000 and 9,500 yuan per ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot prices and basis of the main contract - The prices of some industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and the basis of some products changed. For example, the basis of (SI4210 benchmark) increased by 61.29% [5]. Monthly spreads - The spreads between some contracts changed, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread decreasing by 100.00% [5]. Fundamental data (monthly) - The national and regional industrial silicon productions increased, with the national production increasing by 14.01%. The productions of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The industrial silicon export volume increased by 3.56% [5]. Inventory changes - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 11.63%, the inventory in Yunnan increased by 2.91%, and the social inventory remained unchanged [5]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On the fundamental side, the supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The inventory of downstream components is high, and the price has loosened. It is expected that the polysilicon price will mainly fluctuate within a range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry storage, the actual operating rate and production - reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot prices and basis - The average prices of some polysilicon products remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis decreased by 8.44% [6]. Futures prices and monthly spreads - The main contract price increased by 0.19%, and the spreads between some contracts changed, such as the current - month - to - first - continuous spread decreasing by 130.00% [6]. Fundamental data (weekly) - The silicon wafer production decreased by 1.01%, and the polysilicon production increased by 0.32% [6]. Fundamental data (monthly) - The polysilicon production increased by 23.31%, the import volume decreased by 9.63%, the export volume increased by 40.12%, and the net export volume increased by 94.25%. The silicon wafer production, import volume, export volume, and net export volume all increased [6]. Inventory changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 10.78%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.79% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the US soybean market faces dual impacts of yield and exports. Yield reduction is likely, but the extent is uncertain. The outcome of China-US economic and trade talks in November will significantly affect US soybean exports. CBOT soybeans are expected to continue to oscillate in a wide range between 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [1][22][113]. - South American soybean exports and planting progress may impact the international soybean market in the fourth quarter. Brazilian soybean exports to China may range from 1000 - 1200 million tons. Brazilian basis fluctuations are crucial, and the possibility of a "dry south and wet north" situation due to La Nina should be monitored [23][37][113]. - Although the arrival of domestic soybeans will gradually decrease in the fourth quarter, supply concerns may ease with effective supply supplements. Domestic soybean meal demand is expected to increase steadily, and inventory reduction may start in November. The basis of soybean meal may recover from a low level, and the fluctuation range of the January contract of Dalian soybean meal may be between 2850 - 3200 yuan per ton [1][54][113]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply of the US soybean oil market is expected to increase significantly, and the inventory will increase steadily. The market is waiting for the implementation of energy policies, and the downward space for US soybean oil may narrow [2][67][114]. - Malaysian palm oil may experience a seasonal upward trend in the fourth quarter. Excessive rainfall may cause an early start of the production reduction cycle in October. Export may be temporarily affected, but the tight supply - demand balance sheet of Indonesian palm oil provides support [2][85][114]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand differentiation of domestic oils is prominent. The supply of soybean oil may decline in October, and the inventory inflection point may occur at the end of the year. Palm oil inventory will accumulate significantly, while rapeseed oil inventory reduction will accelerate [2][111][115]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Market Review - In the third quarter, CBOT soybeans showed a range - bound oscillation, with a reverse "N" shape. Domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell. International oils showed a differentiated trend, with US soybean oil rising and then falling, and Malaysian palm oil rising [5][6]. - From June 30 to September 25, 2025, the prices of US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil declined, while Malaysian palm oil, Dalian soybean oil, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil prices increased [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Protein Meal 3.2.1 US Soybeans: Uncertain Supply - Demand Pattern Due to Poor Exports - The yield of US soybeans may be adjusted downward in the USDA report after October, and the export situation depends on China - US economic and trade talks. If China restarts purchasing US soybeans, exports may remain stable; otherwise, they may be further reduced [11][14][18]. - US soybean crushing remains strong, but the room for further increase in crushing volume is limited, and the 2025/26 annual crushing demand is likely to remain at the current level [16][17]. 3.2.2 South American Soybeans: Increased Market Turbulence Due to Export and Weather - In 2025, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record high of 110 million tons. Argentina's soybean export policy is volatile, and the possibility of a second export tax cancellation cannot be ruled out [23][27][30]. - The probability of La Nina occurring from October to December has increased, which may lead to a "dry south and wet north" situation. Brazil's soybean planting has started, but there are weather risks in some areas [32][33]. - Brazilian basis is affected by China - US tariff policies. If China purchases US soybeans, Brazilian basis may decline; otherwise, it may rise [36][37]. 3.2.3 Domestic Soybean Meal: Supply Concerns May Ease, but Cost - Driven Factors Remain - With the increase in Argentine soybean imports, the supply of domestic soybeans in the fourth quarter is expected to increase, and supply concerns may ease [40]. - Domestic soybean meal demand has increased steadily, but there is a suspicion of over - consuming future demand. The inventory inflection point has not yet arrived, and inventory reduction may start in November [45][48]. - The basis of soybean meal may recover from a low level in November, and the fluctuation range of the January contract of Dalian soybean meal may be between 2850 - 3200 yuan per ton [49][54]. 3.3 Third Part: Oils 3.3.1 US Soybean Oil: Awaiting Policy Implementation with Uncertain Policy Outlook - The demand for US soybean oil has remained high in 2025, but the implementation of biodiesel policies in October is crucial for future demand [59][61]. - From October, US soybean oil will enter an inventory - building cycle, and the inventory will increase steadily [61]. 3.3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil: Early Entry into Production Reduction Cycle, Supply Concerns Boost the Market - In the fourth quarter, Southeast Asian palm oil will transition to a production reduction cycle. Excessive rainfall may cause an early start of the production reduction cycle in Malaysia [70][75]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil is uncertain due to India's increased purchase of Argentine soybean oil. However, Indonesia's tight supply - demand balance sheet provides support [77][79]. - In the fourth quarter, the Southeast Asian palm oil market will enter a de - stocking stage, and Malaysian palm oil may experience a seasonal upward trend [84][85]. 3.3.3 Domestic Oils: Supply - Demand Structure Differentiation, Accelerated Rapeseed Oil Inventory Reduction - As of September 20, the inventory of domestic oils has not yet started to decline. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of oils is relatively abundant, but there are significant differences among varieties [88]. - Domestic oil demand has declined. In the fourth quarter, the demand for oils may enter a small peak, but expectations should not be too high [91]. - The supply of domestic soybean oil may decline in October, and the inventory inflection point may occur at the end of the year. Palm oil inventory will accumulate significantly, while rapeseed oil inventory reduction will accelerate [95][100][108]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - The conclusions are consistent with the core views of the report, emphasizing the uncertainties and trends in the protein meal and oil markets in the fourth quarter [113][114][115].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oscillating Weakly**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, live pigs, cotton (medium - term), sugar (long - term) [2][7][12][18][19] - **Oscillating**: Corn, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton (short - term), paper pulp, offset paper, logs [11][15][16][18][20][22][23] - **Weak Market Sentiment**: Fats and oils [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: With the harvest of US soybeans and the increase in Argentine supply, the domestic supply pressure is dominant, and both are expected to oscillate weakly. Long positions from the previous period can take profits and then wait and see [2][7]. - **Fats and Oils**: Market sentiment remains weak. The harvest of US soybeans is progressing, but the good - quality rate is declining. The export tax on soybeans and their derivatives in Argentina has been temporarily cancelled. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, the inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in September may be limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decline [5]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the market faces the pressure of new grain listing, and prices may continue to decline. In the long term, it is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish, with an oscillating outlook [11]. - **Live Pigs**: The purchase and sale are smooth, but the price is at a low level. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will weaken [12]. - **Natural Rubber**: Before the holiday, positions are continuously reduced. It is recommended to wait and see. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market will maintain an oscillating pattern within a range [16]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there may be a certain support around 13,500 yuan/ton, and there may be a rebound. In the medium term, due to the expected increase in production, it is expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Sugar**: In the long term, it is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected abundant supply in the new season. In the short term, the price has stopped falling and rebounded [19]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern, and the 01 contract may face downward pressure [20]. - **Offset Paper**: The downstream orders are weak, and the market contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4,100 - 4,400 yuan in the short - term [22]. - **Logs**: The spot price is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate around 800 yuan in the short term [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, US soybeans and soybean oil rebounded slightly due to technical buying, and domestic fats and oils oscillated weakly. The US dollar weakened slightly, and crude oil prices rose [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The harvest of US soybeans is progressing normally, but the good - quality rate is declining. The production and consumption of US biodiesel have decreased year - on - year. Argentina has cancelled the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, the inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in September may be limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decline [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to oscillate weakly, and rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **Market Information**: On September 24, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes increased, and the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing decreased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: Argentina has cancelled all grain export tariffs, and the China - Canada trade relationship may improve. Internationally, the supply of US soybeans is increasing, and the export price of Argentine soybeans is decreasing. Domestically, the import volume of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil from Argentina is expected to increase, and the supply may continue to be high. The demand for soybean meal may increase steadily, and rapeseed meal is expected to follow the trend of soybean meal [7]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and then wait and see [2][7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Market Information**: The average price of domestic corn is 2,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract is 2,158 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [8][10]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of domestic corn varies in different regions. The supply of new grain in the Northeast is under pressure, and the price is stable or weak. The arrival volume in North China is low, and the price is strong. The port demand is weak, and the price is stable or weak. The new grain in Jilin, Inner Mongolia, and western Heilongjiang has not been listed, and the new grain in eastern Heilongjiang has a high opening price. North China has been affected by continuous rainfall, and the arrival of wet grain is insufficient. Argentina has cancelled the export tax on corn, which may have a limited impact [11]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling on rebounds and reverse arbitrage opportunities [11]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: On September 24, the spot price of live pigs in Henan was 12.79 yuan/kg, down 0.23%, and the closing price of the live pig futures active contract was 12,730 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [12]. - **Industry Situation**: Affected by typhoons in Guangdong, some enterprises have reduced production. The cost of breeding is expected to decrease due to Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs. In the short term, the supply of live pigs is abundant, and in the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will weaken [12]. - **Outlook**: Live pigs are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [12]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of natural rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has increased, and the export of natural rubber from Thailand from January to August has decreased year - on - year [13][14]. - **Industry Situation**: The rubber price has maintained a narrow - range oscillation pattern. The fundamentals are currently strong, but there is an expectation of increased supply in the fourth quarter. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the overall demand is not expected to change significantly [15]. - **Outlook**: Natural rubber is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern within a range. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [15]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber and the domestic spot price of butadiene have increased [16]. - **Industry Situation**: The BR market first rose and then fell, and the absolute price remained basically unchanged. There are expectations of many device overhauls from September to November, and the price is at a low level since listing. The raw material butadiene has a certain support on the supply side, but the downstream demand is weak [16][17]. - **Outlook**: Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [16]. 3.7 Cotton - **Market Information**: As of September 24, the number of registered warehouse receipts for the 24/25 season was 3,716, and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 01 was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [17]. - **Industry Situation**: The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase significantly in the new season. The inventory structure is currently tight in the near - term and loose in the long - term. The demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability is in doubt [17][18]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there may be a certain support around 13,500 yuan/ton, and there may be a rebound. In the medium term, due to the expected increase in production, it is expected to oscillate weakly [18]. 3.8 Sugar - **Market Information**: As of September 24, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar 01 was 5,497 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton [19]. - **Industry Situation**: Recently, Zhengzhou sugar has continued to decline and then rebounded. The international trade flow is abundant, and the domestic consumption in August is average. The supply of the global sugar market is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 season [19]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar is expected to oscillate weakly. In the short term, the price has stopped falling and rebounded [19]. 3.9 Paper Pulp - **Market Information**: The price of domestic paper pulp varies, with the price of Russian pine needles in Shandong at 5,100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [19]. - **Industry Situation**: The paper pulp futures have been oscillating at a low level. The 09 contract has completed delivery, and the US dollar price of softwood pulp is expected to decline. The paper market has some changes, but the impact is not strong. The fundamentals of paper pulp are still weakly guided [20]. - **Outlook**: Paper pulp is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **Market Information**: The market price of offset paper has remained stable, and the market is waiting and seeing [22]. - **Industry Situation**: The production of large - scale paper mills is basically stable, and the production enthusiasm of some small and medium - sized paper mills is average. The downstream printing factory orders are weak, and the market confidence is insufficient. The supply and demand have no obvious contradiction in the short term [22]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to operate within the range of 4,100 - 4,400 yuan in the short - term [22]. 3.11 Logs - **Market Information**: The spot price of logs is stable, and the inventory has decreased [23]. - **Industry Situation**: The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations. The fundamentals have improved marginally, but there is no strong upward driving force. The delivery logic has a negative impact on the market [23]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to oscillate around 800 yuan in the short term [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Overall Industry Outlook - The report does not provide a comprehensive investment rating for the entire agricultural industry. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural products: - **Protein Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: Oscillating weakly [2][6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [8] - **Pigs**: Oscillating weakly [9] - **Natural Rubber (RSS3 and TSR20)**: Oscillating [10][12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the medium - term, with short - term attention to support levels [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [16] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17] - **Logs**: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. The main influencing factors include international policies (such as Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs), weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. For example, Argentina's cancellation of soybean and other grain export tariffs impacts the global and domestic markets of related products, and weather conditions affect crop yields and harvest schedules [1][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Protein Meal - **Logic**: Argentina's cancellation of soybean export tariffs leads to a decrease in export prices and an expected increase in export volume, which is bearish for the domestic and international soybean markets. Domestically, the opening of import profit for Argentine soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil is expected to increase imports, causing short - term pressure on the domestic market. In the long run, domestic soybean meal supply may increase in Q4 2025, and the supply gap may disappear in Q1 2026. On the demand side, the consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily, while rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and then wait and see [2][6]. 3.2. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The price of domestic corn shows regional differentiation. In the short term, there is pressure from the concentrated listing of new grain, and Argentina's cancellation of corn export tariffs also affects market sentiment. In the long term, the price is not pessimistic under the scenario of tightening carry - over inventory, presenting a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and reverse spread opportunities [8]. 3.3. Pigs - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, and the cost of breeding is expected to decrease due to Argentina's policy. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy continues to be implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will gradually weaken [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. The price is expected to face supply pressure after the National Day, and attention can be paid to reverse spread strategies [9]. 3.4. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Rubber prices are relatively resistant to decline due to favorable fundamentals, showing a pattern of strong spot prices, inventory reduction, and narrowing basis. However, due to poor commodity sentiment, it is difficult to rise independently. In the short term, attention should be paid to the supply increase in the production area and the inventory reduction rate, as well as the downstream procurement willingness [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short term. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks in September [12]. 3.5. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures contract oscillates within a range. The overall commodity trend is weak, but natural rubber is relatively strong, supporting the BR futures. The fundamentals and price operation logic have not changed significantly recently. The price is expected to continue to oscillate between 11300 - 12300 [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating within a range in the short term [13]. 3.6. Cotton - **Logic**: The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production in the new year leads to the market trading the expected supply surplus in advance, causing the cotton price to decline. The current inventory is tight, and the demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability of the peak - season demand is questionable. The market shows a pattern of tight near - term and loose far - term supply [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the medium term. In the short term, pay attention to the support at 13500 yuan/ton [14]. 3.7. Sugar - **Logic**: Zhengzhou sugar prices continue to decline, breaking through the 5500 yuan/ton level. Macroeconomically, the market has digested the Fed's interest - rate cut. Fundamentally, the international trade flow is loose, and domestic consumption and imports are not favorable. In the long term, the global sugar supply is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 crushing season [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15]. 3.8. Pulp - **Logic**: Pulp futures oscillate at a low level, with differences between near - term and far - term contracts. The market has both positive and negative factors, but the impact is not strong. The fundamentals are still bearish, but the futures price has already factored in the negative news, and the price of bleached northern softwood kraft pulp has stabilized [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. 3.9. Offset Printing Paper - **Logic**: The futures price oscillates narrowly around 4200 yuan. The short - term fundamentals have limited changes, with sufficient supply and no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. Attention should be paid to new driving factors such as publishing tenders [17]. - **Outlook**: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17]. 3.10. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures price oscillates narrowly. The fundamentals have marginally improved, but there is no strong upward driving force. From the perspective of delivery, it has a bearish impact on the futures price [19]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19].