1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Q4 economic downward pressure may rise. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in November, but corporate profits may continue to be under pressure. The traditional investment - driven economic model may be unsustainable. Consumption and exports may face pressure. Policy rate cuts and incremental tools in the next six months may be key support measures [2][75]. - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may decline in a volatile manner. The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65%, the 30Y Treasury to 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bonds to 1.9% (all referring to bonds without VAT) [4][76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2pct. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6pct. The comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3pct from the previous month, indicating increased economic growth pressure [4][12]. - In October, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the revenue decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. From January to October, the total profits of large - scale industrial enterprises reached 5.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [4][21]. - On November 25, the central bank conducted a 1000 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan in November, the ninth consecutive month of increased roll - over [4][22]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of November 23, the daily average retail volume of passenger cars decreased by 6.6% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume increased by 2.2% year - on - year. As of November 27, the 7 - day total national movie box office increased by 70.9% year - on - year. As of November 21, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 25.0% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 48.2% year - on - year [23][27]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of November 23, the container throughput of ports increased by 12.8% year - on - year. As of November 28, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 3.2% year - on - year. The postal express pick - up volume increased by 8.2% year - on - year, the delivery volume increased by 7.0% year - on - year, the railway freight volume decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume increased by 2.3% year - on - year [31][32]. 3.2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of November 26, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 76.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8pct. As of November 27, the average asphalt operating rate was 20.0%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0pct. The soda ash operating rate was 81.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.0pct, and the PVC operating rate was 78.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4pct [40][42]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of November 28, the 7 - day total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 33.2% year - on - year. As of November 21, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities decreased by 17.3% year - on - year [45]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of November 28, the average pork wholesale price decreased by 23.7% year - on - year, the vegetable wholesale price increased by 15.9% year - on - year, and the average price of 6 key fruits increased by 2.0% year - on - year. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and the average WTI crude oil spot price decreased by 15.7% year - on - year [46]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On November 28, most Treasury yields rose. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields were 1.40%/1.62%/1.84%/2.19% respectively, compared with November 21, they changed by - 0.2BP/+2.8BP/+2.6BP/+2.8BP respectively. The yields of other bonds also had corresponding changes [59]. - On November 28, the U.S. dollar - to - RMB central parity rate and spot exchange rate were 7.08/7.08, down 86/309 pips from November 21 [69]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. As of November 28, the estimated average duration was about 5.0 years, and the median was about 4.2 years, compared with November 21, they changed by + 0.11/ - 0.20 years respectively [71]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend. As of November 28, the estimated average duration was about 2.0 years, and the median was about 2.1 years, compared with November 21, they changed by - 0.04/+0.05 years respectively [72]. 3.5 Investment Advice - The report is bullish on the bond market, believing that the current bond market has prominent allocation value. Due to domestic economic data pressure, high short - term interest rates, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the policy rate may be cut by 20BP in the next six months [4][76].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that real interest rates are very low, and even if the policy interest rate is raised, the overall environment will remain accommodative [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The USD/JPY exchange rate declined following Ueda's remarks [1] - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds increased by 4 basis points to 1.84%, marking the highest level since June 2008 [1] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index saw an expanded increase of 1% [1]

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - The total silver futures inventory reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 535,090 kilograms, with a decrease of 12,595 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 12,290 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 12,306 yuan, a low of 11,912 yuan, and closed at 12,050 yuan, reflecting an increase of 0.75% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - Meeting minutes indicate a divided opinion among Federal Reserve members regarding the recent interest rate cut, with some members expressing satisfaction with maintaining the current rate [2][3] - Concerns were raised about the potential for long-term inflation expectations to rise if inflation does not decrease promptly, with some members voting against the rate cut due to worries about achieving the 2% inflation target [2][3] - The recent U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key employment data, which may impact the Federal Reserve's decision-making process in upcoming meetings [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, effective until the next announcement [1] - Analyst Wang Qing from Dongfang Jincheng noted that the stability of the LPR in November aligns with market expectations after a significant drop of 25 basis points in October [1] - The PBOC is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance through 2025, with flexibility to adjust rates as needed to support economic recovery and respond to external trade conditions [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for China's monetary policy, now predicting a reduction in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates in the first quarter of 2026, delayed from the previous estimate of the fourth quarter of 2025 [2] - The expectation for a 10 basis point interest rate cut has been postponed from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the depreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar and euro, driven by market concerns over Japan's fiscal deterioration amid the government's active fiscal policies. Group 1: Yen Depreciation - The yen fell to the 157 yen per dollar range on November 19, marking its lowest level in about 10 months since mid-January [2] - The yen also weakened against the euro, reaching over 181 yen per euro, indicating a new record low [2] - The depreciation of the yen is attributed to market fears regarding Japan's fiscal situation, leading to increased selling pressure on the currency [2] Group 2: Government and Central Bank Response - A meeting was held among Japan's finance minister, economic minister, and the Bank of Japan governor, but no specific discussions on yen depreciation or the strengthening of the dollar were reported [4] - The lack of mention regarding currency intervention by the government and the Bank of Japan has led to decreased market expectations for such actions [4] Group 3: Impact of US Federal Reserve Policies - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions has also influenced the yen's performance [6] - The minutes from the October Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicated that many participants expect to maintain the policy rate unchanged at least until the end of the year, with over 60% probability for this outcome in December [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve needs to exercise caution as policy interest rates approach neutral levels [1] Group 1 - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Musalem, emphasizes the importance of a careful approach in monetary policy [1] - The statement indicates a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's strategy as it navigates near neutral interest rates [1]

Report Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond will return to around 1.65%, the 30Y Treasury bond to 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bond to 1.9% (all referring to non - VAT bonds) by the end of the year [24]. Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the wealth management scale increased more than seasonally, with the total scale reaching 33.6 trillion yuan at the end of October, up 3.7 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year and 1.5 trillion yuan from the end of the previous month [3][6]. - The average monthly annualized yield of pure fixed - income wealth management products of wealth management companies significantly rebounded in October. The average performance comparison benchmark of newly issued RMB fixed - income wealth management products of wealth management companies has been declining since the beginning of 2022, and the lower limit may reach 2.0% in the future [3]. - The interest - bearing liability cost rate of A - share listed banks has declined rapidly in the past two years. It is expected to fall below 1.60% in Q4 2025, and the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year by year in the next three to five years, supporting the downward trend of bond yields [3]. - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term. Factors such as high equity positions of institutions like annuities, rapid decline in bank liability costs, loose liquidity, and seasonal patterns are expected to support the bond market [3]. Summary by Directory 10 - month Wealth Management Scale - As of the end of October 2025, the wealth management scale reached 33.6 trillion yuan, hitting a historical high. The increase in October was 1.5 trillion yuan, higher than the average increase of 0.87 trillion yuan from 2021 - 2024. Even with a strong stock market in Q3 2025, the wealth management scale increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, higher than the same period from 2022 - 2024 [6][7][9]. Fixed - income Wealth Management Yield in October 2025 - The performance comparison benchmark of newly issued RMB fixed - income wealth management products has been declining since 2022. In October 2025, the upper limit was 2.61% and the lower limit was 2.13%, and the lower limit may drop to around 2.0% in the future [12][17]. - The average 7 - day annualized yield of cash - management wealth management products was 1.26% as of November 9, 2025, and that of money market funds was 1.11%. The yield of cash - management products was stable at a low level in October [13][15]. - The fixed - income wealth management yield significantly rebounded in October. The average monthly annualized yield of pure fixed - income wealth management products was 3.53% in October, up from 2.15% in September [18]. Investment Advice - The interest - bearing liability cost rate of A - share listed banks decreased to 1.63% in Q3 2025, and it is expected to fall below 1.60% in Q4 2025. In the next three to five years, the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year by year, supporting the downward trend of bond yields [19]. - Given high equity positions of institutions like annuities, rapid decline in bank liability costs, loose liquidity, and expected policy rate cuts, the report is bullish on the bond market. Wealth management products may increase their allocation of credit bonds with a remaining maturity of 3 years or less and long - term industrial and urban investment bonds [24].

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading above $49.20, with a recent price of $49.55, reflecting a 2.58% increase from the opening price of $48.34 per ounce [1] - The highest price reached today was $49.57, while the lowest was $48.30, indicating a bullish short-term trend for silver [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the growth of stablecoins could significantly lower the "neutral interest rate," suggesting that the Fed's policy rates should be adjusted downward to avoid economic contraction [3] - The White House economic advisor Hassett mentioned that the government shutdown has led to a 1.5% decline in U.S. GDP, with potential negative impacts on fourth-quarter economic growth if the shutdown continues [3] - Treasury Secretary Basant indicated that if the shutdown persists, U.S. economic growth for the fourth quarter could be halved [3] Group 3 - The international silver market is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with key resistance levels at $49.5, and potential targets of $51 and $52.5 if the price breaks above $49.5 [4] - Support levels to watch for potential buying opportunities are around $48.5, with expectations of upward movement throughout the week [4]

Core Viewpoint - The growth of stablecoins may significantly lower the "neutral interest rate" in the future, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates should be adjusted downward to avoid contractionary pressures on the economy [1] Group 1: Impact of Stablecoins - The expansion of stablecoins is expected to increase the net supply of lendable funds in the economy, applying downward pressure on the neutral interest rate [1] - If the neutral interest rate declines, the policy interest rate should also decrease to maintain economic health; refusal to lower rates would be considered a tightening action by the central bank [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - Federal Reserve Governor Milan has called for multiple 50 basis point rate cuts to bring the policy rate closer to what he considers a "neutral" level [1] - Factors such as immigration policy adjustments and changes in tariff policies are contributing to the decline in the neutral interest rate, while the current policy rate is "far above neutral levels," imposing significant restrictions on the economy [1] Group 3: Stablecoin Regulations - Stablecoins are digital currencies pegged to sovereign currencies (usually the US dollar) and are designed to maintain stable value [1] - Recent US legislation requires stablecoin issuers to hold reserves in cash and cash equivalents (including US Treasury securities) at a 1:1 ratio, indicating that as stablecoin issuance grows, demand for US Treasuries will also increase [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, suggests that stablecoins could significantly lower the neutral interest rate (R) [1] - A decrease in R would imply a reduction in policy interest rates [1] - Stablecoins can fulfill demand when access to dollars is restricted, potentially increasing the supply of funds available for loans [1]