国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟认为，最新的宏观数据和信贷数据显示，企业部门和居民部门的信贷需求较为疲弱，反映出社会有效需求的潜力 受到抑制、未能完全释放，而单纯依靠传统的货币政策，未必能很好地解决经济动能一定程度上受内需不足制约的问题。 庞溟对智通财经表示，8月份LPR按兵不动，可以更好配合后续推出的各项政策措施，可以更好提升政策实施效能和增强政策针对性有效性，也可以更好地 处理支持实体经济与保持银行体系自身健康性的关系。 往后看，王青表示，7月宏观经济数据波动下行，接下来外需有可能较快放缓，三季度经济下行压力会有所加大。未来在大力提振内需、采取有力措施巩固 房地产市场止跌回稳态势过程中，政策利率及LPR报价有下调空间。预计四季度初前后央行有可能实施新一轮降息降准，并带动两个期限品种的LPR报价跟 进下调。 记者 辛圆 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年8月20日，贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.00%，5年期以上LPR为3.50%，均较上月 保持不变。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青接受智通财经采访时表示，8月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变，符合市场预期。8月以来政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in China remains unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations [1][5]. Group 1 - The stability of the LPR quotes in August reflects the unchanged policy interest rates, indicating no significant changes in the pricing basis for LPR [5]. - Market interest rates have recently increased due to various factors, but banks lack the incentive to lower LPR quotes given the historical low net interest margins [5]. - The continuous stability of the LPR is primarily attributed to a relatively strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the necessity for downward adjustments in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side". The core logic is that there is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that since July, market interest rates have risen significantly, policy rates have shown an anchoring effect, and policy rates have fallen from high levels, causing treasury bond futures to bottom out and rebound. However, the high trading volume in the stock market indicates strong risk appetite, which restricts the upward space of treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation on the strong side; overall view: oscillation. Core logic: There is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: oscillation on the strong side; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillation. Core logic: Treasury bond futures oscillated and sorted out yesterday. Due to the significant rise in market interest rates since July, the anchoring effect of policy rates appeared, and policy rates fell from high levels, leading to a bottom - out rebound of treasury bond futures. However, the high trading volume in the stock market restricts the upward space of treasury bond futures, and treasury bond futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [5].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller believes there is no reason to maintain the current policy interest rate and risk a sudden downturn in the labor market [1] Group 1 - Waller's statement indicates a potential shift in monetary policy direction, suggesting that the current interest rate may not be justified [1] - The emphasis on the labor market highlights the importance of employment stability in monetary policy considerations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller believes there is no justification for maintaining the current policy interest rate, as it poses a risk of a sudden downturn in the labor market [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - Waller suggests that the current interest rate policy may not be necessary and could lead to adverse effects on employment [1] - **Labor Market** - There is a concern regarding the potential for a sudden decline in the labor market if the interest rates are kept at their current levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasizes the need to closely monitor the upward risks of inflation while maintaining the policy interest rate at a low level of 0.5% [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is focused on inflation risks, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The current policy interest rate remains at 0.5%, reflecting a commitment to support economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation is unique, with risks related to both employment and inflation targets [1] Group 1 - Future actions may bring policy rates closer to neutral [1] - It is uncertain whether data will become clearer by the next policy meeting [1]

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：政策利率维持在2.75%是"明确共识"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Allianz Global Investors suggests that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to provide strong policy guidance in its upcoming meeting, maintaining a flexible communication approach [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy interest rate unchanged while avoiding the impression of a completely stagnant policy [1] - **Market Focus** - Attention will be on Governor Kazuo Ueda's assessment of the changing risk environment [1] - **External Factors** - The US-Japan trade agreement has alleviated a key source of external uncertainty, but domestic political risks in Japan have increased [1] - **Global Economic Concerns** - There are ongoing worries regarding global economic growth, as only a few countries have finalized trade agreements [1]

日本央行于7月30及31日举行会议，安联投资全球多元资产首席投资总监Greg Hirt 预期日本央行将在7 月的会议中保持现行的政策利率不变，但保持在加息轨道上。最新公布的季度经济展望报告或将释出日 本央行如何评估近期关税协议对经济增长潜在压力的看法。市场焦点将集中于日本央行行长植田和男对 当前风险环境的评估。美日贸易协定的达成已消除一项主要外部不确定因素，但随着自民党主导的执政 联盟失去参议院多数席位，以及有关首相石破茂可能辞职的揣测升温，国内政治风险显著上升。在当前 环境下，安联投资预期日本央行将维持沟通上的灵活性，避免释出明确政策指引，同时亦会设法避免市 场将其视为完全"按兵不动"。 ...