格隆汇1月19日｜公布的数据显示，加拿大12月的CPI涨幅高于预期，达到2.4%。这一涨幅主要归因于 去年销售税减免政策带来的基数效应，但备受关注的核心通胀指标已连续第三个月出现降温。核心价格 的下降趋势应该会让加拿大央行感到安心。此前该行在12月将关键政策利率维持在2.25%不变，并表示 这一利率水平恰到好处，能够使通胀率接近其2%的目标。货币市场预计2026年利率将保持不变。 ...

Core Insights - Citigroup has released its "2026 Global Investment Outlook," providing predictions for key market indicators in 2026 [1] Market Performance - Growth stocks are expected to continue performing well, with an anticipated return of approximately 17%, while the S&P 600 small-cap value stocks, which have relatively low valuations and cyclical resilience, are projected to yield a return of 21% [3] Monetary Policy - The U.S. monetary policy still has room for easing, with the Federal Reserve potentially lowering the policy rate to below 2.5% by 2026; in contrast, the European Central Bank is expected to maintain its policy rate at around 2% at least until 2027 [3] Inflation Trends - The overall consumer price index in the U.S. may approach zero growth in 2026, while core personal consumption expenditure inflation is expected to gradually decline; however, medium to long-term inflation risk premiums may still rise, indicating ongoing uncertainty regarding future inflation [3] Commodity Prices - The outlook for aluminum prices is positive, with a target range of $3,500 to $4,000 per ton; the natural gas market is facing supply pressures, with European TTF natural gas prices projected to be around €22 per megawatt-hour by 2027 [3] Foreign Exchange Market - The U.S. dollar is likely to remain relatively strong in the first half of 2026, with the euro to dollar exchange rate potentially falling to 1.1; in a relatively stable global risk environment, currencies with high interest rate differentials are expected to perform notably well [3]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's social financing scale increased by 35.6 trillion yuan, marking a rise of 3.34 trillion yuan compared to the previous year, with a total stock of 442.12 trillion yuan by the end of December, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year growth [1] Group 1: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - The total social financing scale stock grew by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 442.12 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025 [1] - The broad money supply (M2) balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, with an annual growth rate of 8.5% [1] - The balance of RMB loans was 271.91 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with an adjusted growth rate of around 7% after accounting for local special bond replacements [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has effectively supported the real economy through monetary policy, as indicated by the growth rates of social financing and M2 supply outpacing nominal GDP growth [1] - Since the second half of 2018, the PBOC has cut policy interest rates 10 times, enhancing the effectiveness of existing policies to lower overall financing costs [1] - By December 2025, the weighted average interest rates for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans were approximately 3.1%, down by 2.5 and 2.6 percentage points respectively since the second half of 2018 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank, represented by Vice Governor Zou Lan, emphasizes the continuation of liquidity injection efforts to maintain ample liquidity and guide overnight interest rates to operate near policy rate levels [1] Group 1 - The central bank plans to increase liquidity injection efforts and utilize various open market operation tools flexibly [1] - The objective is to keep liquidity abundant in the financial system [1] - The central bank aims to guide overnight interest rates to align closely with the established policy rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank Negara Malaysia is likely to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.75% throughout 2026 due to resilient domestic demand and controlled inflation [1] Economic Growth - Economic growth in Malaysia is expected to slow from an estimated 4.6% in 2025 to approximately 4.1% in 2026 [1] Inflation Expectations - The average inflation rate for 2026 is projected to be 1.9%, slightly higher than the previous expectation of 1.7%, but still within a controlled range [1] Interest Rate Projections - The terminal rate for the Federal Reserve is now expected to be adjusted down from 3.50% to 3.25% [1] Currency Exchange Rate - The exchange rate of the US dollar to the Malaysian ringgit is projected to reach 4.0 by the end of 2026, revised from a previous expectation of 4.10 [1]

新华财经北京1月15日电韩国央行行长李昌镛15日就货币政策与外汇市场形势发表系列讲话，明确指 出：若试图通过政策利率手段稳定外汇市场，"利率必须上调约200至300个基点"，即从当前2.50%升至 4.5%–5.5%区间。 针对房地产市场，李昌镛重申："不认为仅靠更高的利率就能平息房价上涨"，暗示需依赖财政与监管等 非货币政策工具应对楼市风险。 在外汇干预方面，李昌镛透露，国民年金公团（NPS）近期已配合外汇当局开展对冲操作以稳定市场， 并感谢福利部协同合作。但他亦警告，散户投资者海外股票购买再度增加，叠加"韩国有很多人愿意借 出美元，但很少有人愿意出售"的结构性问题，加剧了本币贬值压力。 此外，李昌镛表示，若外汇市场持续不稳定，"韩国央行不会同意每年向美国流出200亿美元的投资资 金"，并称政府将于当日稍晚就美韩贸易协议及外汇市场发布联合声明。他呼吁采取"临时措施与长期解 决方案并重"的策略应对汇率波动，并强调"有必要改变市场对韩元将进一步贬值的预期"。 （文章来源：新华财经） 李昌镛的此番表态凸显韩元持续贬值对货币政策构成的潜在压力。 李昌镛强调，近期韩元兑美元汇率一度跌至1470，虽"远未反映韩国经济基 ...

里士满联储行长巴尔金周二称12月通胀数据"令人鼓舞"，不过他指出，通胀往往在年初飙升，并表示希 望未来几个月通胀率将保持在温和水平。 "我认为，目前是一种微妙的平衡，" Barkin在华盛顿对美国CFA协会表示。他指出，通胀高于目标，但 似乎没有加速，失业率也没有失控。 "没有人希望通胀预期根深蒂固，也没有人希望就业市场进一步恶化，" 巴尔金说，"有可能两者都不会 发生。" 美联储去年将政策利率下调了75个基点，并在去年12月暗示，可能会在新的一年暂停降息，以评估经济 的需求。 周二公布的政府数据显示，美国12月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比期上涨2.7%。巴尔金说，这是"令 人鼓舞的"，因为它没有像一些人预期的那样反弹。 美联储的通胀目标是2%，但采用的是另一种通胀指标，该指标将在未来几天公布包括生产者价格在内 的更多数据后计算得出。 上周，美国劳工部发布的月度就业报告显示，12月份失业率为4.4%，比上一次官方公布的数据略有下 降，但比去年同期有所上升。 巴金并不认为这些事态发展值得美联储做出紧急回应。 巴尔金仅表示："拥有独立央行的国家有更好的经济成果"。 他说："我们大部分利率动作大多会在12个月后产 ...

责任编辑：李肇孚 责任编辑：李肇孚 汇丰经济学家Yun Liu和Madhurima Nag在一份报告中称，受广泛扩张支撑，马来西亚2025年GDP可能增 长5%。尽管贸易势头放缓，但这些经济学家预计，电子产品出口的强劲势头、具有韧性的消费者支出 和稳定的投资将抵消经济放缓的影响。他们表示，2026年经济增长预计将放缓至4.5%，为政府预测区 间的上限，并预计具有韧性的需求将推动增长。马来西亚央行可能会在1月份的会议上将其政策利率维 持在2.75%不变，并保持中性基调。他们补充说，投资者可能会密切关注该央行在增长和通胀方面的措 辞变化。马来西亚第四季度GDP初值将于1月16日公布。 汇丰经济学家Yun Liu和Madhurima Nag在一份报告中称，受广泛扩张支撑，马来西亚2025年GDP可能增 长5%。尽管贸易势头放缓，但这些经济学家预计，电子产品出口的强劲势头、具有韧性的消费者支出 和稳定的投资将抵消经济放缓的影响。他们表示，2026年经济增长预计将放缓至4.5%，为政府预测区 间的上限，并预计具有韧性的需求将推动增长。马来西亚央行可能会在1月份的会议上将其政策利率维 持在2.75%不变，并保持中性基调。 ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - The possibility of a "small step" approach in monetary policy is high in the near term, with room for both reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - Monetary policy typically focuses on short- to medium-term goals and requires cooperation from the private sector, commercial banks, and the entire financial system for effective implementation [2] Tools and Strategies - The toolbox for monetary policy in China is becoming increasingly rich, with the central bank enhancing the role of policy rates and using various liquidity support tools and secondary market government bond transactions to manage liquidity and adjust funding costs [2] - RRR cuts are preferred over interest rate cuts, as there is still significant room for RRR reductions compared to major central banks globally [3] Banking Sector Insights - As of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks is at a historical low of 1.42%, which may influence the preference for RRR cuts over significant interest rate reductions [3] - The low interest rate elasticity of consumption and investment means that interest rate cuts have limited effects on stimulating these areas, as businesses prioritize investment risks and profits over minor interest rate changes [3] Inflation and External Environment - Current low inflation rates lead to higher real interest rates, with CPI growth at only 0.2% in 2024 and zero growth in 2025, while PPI remains in negative territory [4] - The external environment for interest rate cuts is improving due to the appreciation of the RMB and the Federal Reserve's ongoing rate cut cycle [4] Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The central bank is innovating with a series of structural monetary policy tools to guide credit structure adjustments, which can provide both quantity and price incentives [4] - There is potential for interest rate cuts through structural tools, particularly to support technological innovation and economically weaker sectors [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The TL2603 is expected to experience short - term and medium - term oscillations, with an intraday weakening trend, overall in a state of oscillatory consolidation. Short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For financial futures index sectors such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, due to strong macro - data resilience and bond supply pressure, bond yields have risen and bond futures prices have fallen. In the long run, due to insufficient domestic demand, there is room for policy rate cuts, which will support bond futures prices. Overall, short - term oscillatory consolidation is expected [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For intraday, a decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly - trending, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strongly - trending, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong. The concepts of strongly - trending/weakly - trending only apply to intraday views [1][3][4]. - **TL2603**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weakly - trending. The view is oscillatory consolidation, with the core logic being a low short - term probability of interest rate cuts and long - term expectations of monetary easing [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: weakly - trending; Medium - term view: oscillatory; Reference view: oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures rebounded slightly yesterday. In the short term, strong macro - data resilience reduces the urgency of monetary easing, and the supply pressure of bond issuance has led to a significant rise in bond yields and a decline in bond futures prices since the end of December. In the long run, the problem of insufficient domestic demand requires a relatively loose monetary and credit environment, so there is still room for policy rate cuts, and bond futures prices have support. Overall, short - term oscillatory consolidation is expected [5].