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“五个必须”:做好新形势下经济工作的规律性认识
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-25 04:10
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the emphasis on the "five musts" for economic work under new circumstances, which enriches and develops Xi Jinping's economic thought, serving as both a scientific summary of past practices and a guide for future economic and social development [1] Group 2 - Service consumption is crucial as it connects the economy and people's livelihoods, covering various sectors such as dining, accommodation, elderly care, education, and health services. By 2025, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure to total per capita consumption expenditure is expected to reach 46.1%, indicating a shift towards a balanced focus on both goods and services [3] - There is a need to fully tap into economic potential, which is essentially the unexploited productive capacity that serves as a source of economic growth. As the world's second-largest economy, China has significant development potential, particularly in domestic demand, innovation, and regional development [3] Group 3 - The necessity of combining policy support with reform and innovation is highlighted. Current economic challenges are intertwined, requiring comprehensive measures that balance short-term macroeconomic stabilization with long-term institutional construction [4] Group 4 - The relationship between government and market is central to economic reform. A high-level socialist market economy must balance effective markets with proactive government roles, ensuring that market mechanisms are not hindered while maintaining order and fairness in competition [5] Group 5 - Investment strategies should integrate both material and human investments. As economic growth shifts from expansion to quality improvement, there is an increasing urgency to focus on human capital development alongside physical investments [6] Group 6 - To address external challenges, it is essential to strengthen internal capabilities. High-quality development is necessary to navigate the complexities of the international environment, ensuring that China maintains its strategic focus on domestic growth amidst external uncertainties [7]
兴业证券:建议重视2026年服务消费元年 全年维度布局通胀预期修复与细分景气两条主线
智通财经网· 2026-02-25 03:55
春节假期总结:历史最长春节假期驱动中长途客流增速高景气,票价良好增长 1)量端,国内游方面,根据交通运输部统计,2026除夕-正月初六全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长 9.6%,其中铁路、民航客流各增长11.3%、7.7%。其中史上最长春节带动返乡+旅游,与中长途旅行相 关的民航、铁路显著改善;而邮轮等水上旅游产品回暖及海南封关带动琼州海峡客运量等推动水路客运 量同比增长29.8%;出入境游方面,据国家移民管理局,2026年春节假期日均出入境197.7万人次,较去 年春节假期日均增长10.1%。2)价端,根据DAST统计,春运前21天累计机票票价同比增长3.6%,预计 假期票价增速高于节前(2.22票价同比增长6.3%)。 智通财经APP获悉,兴业证券发布研报称,2026年提振内需成为经济发展重中之重,其中我国居民服务 消费对比海外具备较大提升潜力,有望成为国家在商品消费补贴进一步优化基础上的新抓手,金钱、时 间、供给侧约束都为政策提供良好着力点。板块资金配置处于历史低位且整体估值已反映诸多悲观预 期,该行建议重视2026年服务消费元年,伴随政策逐步向居民收入预期等传导,全年维度布局通胀预期 修复与细分景气两条 ...
建议提案办理见成效 | 深入听民意抓落实 更好惠民生促消费——商务部认真办理代表委员建议提案
Xin Hua She· 2026-02-25 03:17
在2025年全国两会期间,楼向平结合自身专业和前期调研,指出数字消费还存在基础设施短板、产 品服务供给结构性失衡、制度环境多重制约等痛点堵点,并围绕完善数字消费基础底座、加速多元业态 融合创新、健全数字消费体制机制等提出建议。 "我的建议提交后,很快得到了来自全国人大和国务院有关部门的高度重视和积极反馈,让我充分 感受到政府对人大代表建议高度重视,近期一系列关于促进服务消费的政策出台实施,也让我很受鼓 舞。"全国人大代表、上海社会科学院党委书记权衡欣慰地告诉记者。 消费是经济增长的主引擎,也是民生幸福的晴雨表。环顾身旁,"公园式"商业街区多了,体验式消 费火了,家附近的烟火气暖了,一系列促消费政策落地见效,离不开权衡等代表委员以及商务部等部门 的共同努力。 权衡注意到,随着人们生活水平的提高,居民消费结构也发生很大变化,消费更多转向提升生活品 质、丰富精神世界、实现自我发展的服务领域,但我国服务业增加值占国内生产总值比重较发达国家偏 低、新型消费和优质消费供给不足、服务消费供需不匹配、政策支持和跨部门协同不足等问题也十分明 显。 在2025年全国两会期间,权衡在广泛调研的基础上,从调整促消费政策重点、创新服务 ...
万联证券:26年预计促消费政策导向将保持稳定 关注出行链业绩回暖信号
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-02-25 02:42
多数板块过半披露,旅游景区业绩回暖 从披露率来看:除专业服务板块外其他子板块披露率过半,其中体育板块2家上市公司均已披露业绩预 告。从预盈率来看:旅游及景区板块业绩逐渐回暖,13家已披露业绩预告的上市公司中有8家预计盈 利;专业服务板块表现稳健,预盈率过半;其余板块表现不佳,体育板块上市公司均预计亏损。从子板 块预告类型占比来看,旅游及景区业绩持续承压,但行业回暖呈现积极信号,扭亏为盈的公司占比由 8%大幅提升至23%;酒店餐饮业绩向好,2家公司预增,亏损占比下降;专业服务稳中向好,略增占比 提升,其余类型占比变化不大;教育板块业绩表现不佳,10家公司中7家持续亏损,1家首次亏损。 风险因素:自然灾害和安全事故风险,政策风险,宏观经济不及预期风险,统计偏误风险。 截至2026年2月15日,社服板块共有42家上市公司发布2025年业绩预告,行业披露率为49%,整体预盈 率为45%,在消费八大行业中排行第六。我国消费结构正从商品消费主导转向商品与服务消费并重,以 体验为核心的服务消费有望成为主要增长引擎。 披露率近半,业绩整体承压 截至2026年2月15日,社会服务行业共计85家A股公司,已有42家发布业绩预告, ...
国信证券:春节出行高景气开启服务消费布局年 酒店提价逻辑验证 海南免税双位数增长
智通财经网· 2026-02-25 01:31
1)量端,国内游方面,根据交通运输部统计,2026除夕-正月初六全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长 9.6%,其中铁路、民航客流各增长11.3%、7.7%。其中史上最长春节带动返乡+旅游,与中长途旅行相 关的民航、铁路显著改善;而邮轮等水上旅游产品回暖及海南封关带动琼州海峡客运量等推动水路客运 量同比增长29.8%;出入境游方面,据国家移民管理局,2026年春节假期日均出入境197.7万人次,较去 年春节假期日均增长10.1%。2)价端,根据DAST统计,春运前21天累计机票票价同比增长3.6%,预计 假期票价增速高于节前(2.22票价同比增长6.3%)。 子行业:酒店提价逻辑验证,海南免税双位数增长,祈福景区表现突出,本地零售餐饮环比提速 国信证券发布研报称,2026年提振内需成为经济发展重中之重,其中我国居民服务消费对比海外具备较 大提升潜力,有望成为国家在商品消费补贴进一步优化基础上的新抓手,金钱、时间、供给侧约束都为 政策提供良好着力点。板块资金配置处于历史低位且整体估值已反映诸多悲观预期,该行建议重视2026 年服务消费元年,伴随政策逐步向居民收入预期等传导,全年维度布局通胀预期修复与细分景气两条主 线 ...
马年春节假日盘点·消费篇
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-24 14:12
从北国的冰雪热潮到南方的灯会盛景,从城市商圈的人流涌动到县域大集的烟火升腾,2026年马年春节,长达9天的假期窗口,铺展出一幅热 气腾腾的新春画卷。新场景、新风尚、新流量,三个关键词成为展现中国春节消费图景的生动注脚。 ——新场景:在悦己体验中感受团圆暖意。 春节是团圆的节日,而团圆的内涵正在不断丰富。今年假期,"旅行过年""度假式过年"热度攀升。 在江西抚州黎川古城,张灯结彩的街巷间,携老带幼的举家出游队伍随处可见。古城深处的"云水间"民宿,由百年老宅改造而成,从除夕到正 月初七客房早早订满。 民宿的庭院里,画架一字排开,油彩铺陈,这家民宿春节期间推出的免费油画体验活动场场满员。来自上海的游客徐硕说:"以前过年就是走 亲访友,今年带着父母和孩子出来旅行,一起完成一幅画,比单纯逛景区更有纪念意义。" 春节期间,游客在黎川古城体验油画创作。(邱世同 摄) 与此同时,更多年轻人选择为"情绪价值"买单。在长沙,年轻消费者正成为春节消费的主力军。位于天心区的悦方ID MALL凭借独特的"泛二 次元"生态定位,成为年轻消费者的热门打卡地,泡泡玛特等品牌门店在假期中迎来消费热潮。 "花钱买时间、买品质"让春节的消费清单更 ...
建议提案办理见成效丨深入听民意抓落实 更好惠民生促消费——商务部认真办理代表委员建议提案
Xin Hua She· 2026-02-24 12:29
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of consumer spending as a key driver of economic growth and highlights the government's proactive measures in responding to suggestions from representatives to enhance service consumption and improve living standards [1][4]. Group 1: Government Response to Suggestions - The Ministry of Commerce has actively engaged with representatives to address their suggestions, leading to the formulation of practical measures aimed at boosting service consumption [2][3]. - A total of 1,020 suggestions and proposals were received by the Ministry of Commerce during the 2025 National Two Sessions, with 584 being suggestions and 436 proposals, covering various aspects of trade and economic reform [4]. Group 2: Focus on Service Consumption - The article outlines a shift in consumer spending towards enhancing quality of life and self-development, while also noting the challenges in service sector contributions to GDP compared to developed countries [1][2]. - The Ministry of Commerce has introduced policies to cultivate new growth points in service consumption and expand service offerings, including innovative consumption models and pilot programs [2][3]. Group 3: Digital Consumption Development - Representatives have raised concerns regarding the infrastructure and regulatory challenges facing digital consumption, prompting the Ministry of Commerce to prioritize these issues in their policy framework [3]. - The Ministry has collaborated with other departments to develop guidelines aimed at fostering digital consumption, addressing structural imbalances in product and service offerings [3].
社会服务行业2025年业绩预告综述:关注出行链业绩回暖信号
Wanlian Securities· 2026-02-24 11:04
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][33] Core Insights - As of February 15, 2026, 42 out of 85 listed companies in the social services sector have released their 2025 earnings forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49%. The overall pre-profit rate for the sector is 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumer sectors. The consumption structure in China is shifting from goods to a balanced focus on both goods and services, with experience-based service consumption expected to be a major growth driver. For 2026, stable consumer policy guidance is anticipated, but recovery in the fundamentals will take time due to adjustments in household balance sheets. The first half of 2026 is expected to present mainly structural opportunities [2][3][30]. Summary by Sections Disclosure and Performance - The social services sector has a disclosure rate of 49%, ranking fifth among eight major consumer sectors. Among the 42 companies that have released forecasts, only 19 are expected to be profitable, leading to a pre-profit rate of 45%, which is the sixth highest among consumer sectors. Compared to 2024, the performance of the social services sector is under pressure, with only 14% of companies expected to see year-on-year profit growth, a decrease of 4% from the previous year. The proportion of companies turning losses into profits and those continuing to incur losses has increased to 10% and 48%, respectively, with nearly half of the companies continuing to report losses [3][11][30]. Subsector Performance - Most subsectors have a disclosure rate exceeding 50%, with the tourism and scenic spots sector showing signs of recovery. Among 13 companies that have disclosed forecasts in this sector, 8 are expected to be profitable. The professional services sector remains stable with over half expected to be profitable, while the sports sector is expected to incur losses. The tourism and scenic spots sector continues to face pressure, but there are positive signals of recovery, with the proportion of companies turning losses into profits increasing from 8% to 23%. The hotel and restaurant sector is performing well, with two companies expecting profit increases and a decrease in loss ratios. The education sector, however, is underperforming, with 7 out of 10 companies continuing to report losses [4][15][16][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the travel chain sector that will benefit from the implementation of the spring and autumn holiday system and the gradual recovery of consumer confidence. Additionally, attention should be given to leading chain restaurants that are in a critical phase of scaling up and increasing market share, as well as the early-stage value of emerging experience-based sectors such as sports events and concerts [2][30].
社服零售行业周报:春节假期,旅游市场迎来“开门红”
HUAXI Securities· 2026-02-24 10:30
证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 春节假期,旅游市场迎来"开门红" [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 河南发布数据显示,春节假期,河南省接待国内游客 6281 万 人次,旅游收入 376.3 亿元,按可比口径接待人次同比增长 9.1%,旅游收入同比增长 9.6%。 四川省文化和旅游厅数据显示,春节假期,全省共接待游客 5860.97 万人次、旅游总花费 445.74 亿元,同比分别增长 14.68%、13.35%。 海南省旅游和文化广电体育厅数据显示,春节假期,海南接 待游客 1232.05 万人次,实现游客总花费 183.66 亿元,同比 分别增长 28.9%、30.7%。 吉林发布数据显示,据银联商务公司大数据测算,春节假 期,全省接待国内游客量、国内游客出游总花费较 2025 年春 节假期分别增长 26.9%、24.9%,日均分别增长 11.1%、 10.9%。 [Table_Summary] ► 史上最长春节假期,多地旅游市场迎来"开门红" 北京市文化和旅游局数据显示,春节假期,北京累计接待游 客 1984 ...
社服零售行业周报:春节假期,旅游市场迎来“开门红”-20260224
HUAXI Securities· 2026-02-24 08:49
证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 春节假期,旅游市场迎来"开门红" [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 史上最长春节假期,多地旅游市场迎来"开门红" 北京市文化和旅游局数据显示,春节假期,北京累计接待游 客 1984.3 万人次,实现旅游总花费 331.4 亿元。 上海市文化旅游局数据显示,据上海旅游大数据监测,春节 假期,全市共接待游客 2167.21 万人次,同比增长 8.36%(按 可比口径,下同);上海地区含吃、住、行、游、购、娱等全 要素旅游消费交易总金额为 256.14 亿元,同比增长 20.90%; 全市宾旅馆平均客房出租率为 50.60%,同比增长 3.10 个百分 点。 重庆市文化旅游委数据显示,春节假期,全市重点监测的 130 家 A 级景区累计接待游客 1260 万人次,同比增长 5.6%;重点 监测的 10 家旅游休闲街区累计接待游客 492.5 万人次,同比 增长 19.3%。 湖南省文旅厅数据显示,根据手机信令大数据建模统计,春 节假期全省累计接待游客 ...