Market Overview - The bond market is currently in a "full bow" state, with the median duration of interest rate bond funds reaching a historical high of 5.25 years as of June 20, 2025[1] - The leverage ratio for non-bank financial institutions is approximately 113.9%, up from a low of 113.5% in mid-February 2025, but still below the historical peak of 118.5%[1] Yield Spread Analysis - The yield spread between new and old bonds has been fully explored, with the yield on long-term active bonds declining by about 5 basis points, while older bonds have seen declines of 8-9 basis points[2] - The yield spread between 10-year national development bonds and national treasury bonds has narrowed from a high of 7.2 basis points to the current 3.7 basis points[2] Market Dynamics - The bond market has been characterized by a lack of clear direction, with 12 historical rounds of yield spread compression analyzed, showing that 8 rounds occurred in uncertain market conditions[3] - The compression of yield spreads is often concluded by clear market signals such as interest rate cuts or significant supply increases, which could lead to a re-expansion of spreads[3] Future Outlook - The process of compressing yield spreads may continue until the central bank initiates bond purchases or provides stronger signals, such as allowing treasury bonds to meet reserve requirements[4] - The market is expected to experience increased volatility following the implementation of new monetary policies, particularly around natural easing points like the beginning of a quarter[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[5]

Group 1: Market Overview - From June 9-13, the second round of China-US negotiations became a major variable affecting interest rate trends, with tariffs remaining unchanged, benefiting bonds and gold as safe-haven assets[1] - As the tax period approached, liquidity tightened, leading to cautious short-term pricing in the bond market, with interest rates and similar rate products slowing down[1] - The one-year government bond yield struggled to break 1.4%, resulting in an overly flat yield curve[3] Group 2: Liquidity and Central Bank Actions - Market concerns about liquidity stability eased as the month progressed, with 1.83 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit successfully renewed[2] - The central bank's proactive measures included increasing the daily open market operation (OMO) injection to 202.5 billion yuan on June 13, reflecting a firm stance on liquidity support[2] - The central bank's actions shifted from implicit to explicit, effectively guiding market expectations and stabilizing funding rates[2] Group 3: Yield Curve Dynamics - Historical analysis indicates that extreme flattening of the yield curve is often linked to central bank tightening, with subsequent steepening reliant on a shift in the central bank's stance[3] - The current yield curve is at a critical point where it may transition from flat to steep, contingent on the central bank's future actions and market adaptation[3] - The 10Y-1Y yield spread is currently at 24 basis points, placing it in the 13th percentile of historical data, indicating limited room for further compression[3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - In anticipation of a potential steepening of the yield curve, investment strategies should focus on increasing duration in portfolios, particularly in 10-year non-active bonds and high-quality local government bonds[6] - The duration of interest rate bond funds has reached a historical high of 5.23 years, while credit bond funds have risen to 2.43 years, indicating heightened risk exposure in the market[6] - Despite high duration levels, the market's sensitivity to negative factors may increase, necessitating careful monitoring of market conditions[6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - CTAs are currently net short on RTY by $1.8 billion, with expectations of buying approximately $2.5 billion in the next week and $5.2 billion in the next month [2] - The GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate increased by 1.29% from May 30 to June 5, outperforming the MSCI World TR which rose by 0.73% during the same period [2] - A significant portion of stocks (approximately 40%) is expected to enter a blackout period starting around June 16, estimated to last until July 25 [2] Summary by Relevant Sections CTA Corner - Over the next week, buyers are expected to contribute $2.77 billion, with $2.40 billion directed into the US market [5] - For the upcoming month, buyers are projected to contribute $8.19 billion, with $5.79 billion into the US [5] Key Levels for SPX - Short-term pivot level is at 5786, medium-term at 5793, and long-term at 5554 [5] Market Flows - Global equities saw net buying for the fifth consecutive week, with long buys outpacing short sales at a ratio of 1.7 to 1 [40] - Hedge funds have net bought US equities for five weeks, primarily driven by long buys in single stocks [42] - The US Energy long/short ratio is currently at 1.46, the highest level since October 2023 [42] Sentiment Indicators - The GS Sentiment Indicator decreased despite a market rally of 1.5%, indicating cautious investor sentiment [60] - The SPX put-call skew experienced a significant decline, suggesting increased demand for upside through call options [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (from June 3rd to June 6th), the money market rate declined, the average daily net lending of large - scale banks increased, and the leverage ratio of funds slightly rose. The net financing of certificates of deposit decreased, and the yields to maturity of certificates of deposit with different maturities showed differentiation. In the cash bond trading, the main buyers were other product types, mainly increasing holdings of certificates of deposit. Rural commercial banks switched to increasing holdings of certificates of deposit, insurance companies increased holdings of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds with maturities of 15 - 30 years, funds increased holdings of interest - rate bonds across all maturities, and large - scale banks bought interest - rate bonds with maturities of 1 - 3 years. [3] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money and Capital Market - A total of 1602.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired this week. The central bank conducted reverse repurchases of 454.5 billion, 214.9 billion, 126.5 billion, and 135 billion yuan from Tuesday to Friday, with a total injection of 930.9 billion yuan and a net liquidity withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan for the whole week. [5][10] - As of June 6th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.45%, 1.55%, 1.41%, and 1.53% respectively, with changes of - 11.9BP, - 14.58BP, - 6.98BP, and - 13.22BP compared to May 30th, and were at the 19%, 9%, 16%, and 3% historical quantiles respectively. [5][12] - The net borrowing scale of the main fund lenders increased. The main lending institutions (large - scale commercial/policy banks and joint - stock commercial banks) had a net borrowing of - 341.2 billion yuan for the whole week, an increase of 284.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [5][17] - The trading volume of pledged repurchase increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.5 trillion yuan and a maximum single - day trading volume of 7.86 trillion yuan, a 15.42% increase compared to the previous week's average daily volume. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions increased, with an average daily proportion of 87.5% and a maximum single - day proportion of 90.4%, a 3.61 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous week's average daily proportion. [5][24] - The leverage ratio of broad - based funds slightly increased. As of June 6th, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.3%, 202.5%, 127.1%, and 105.4% respectively, with changes of 0.41BP, 14.27BP, - 0.68BP, and 0.1BP compared to May 30th, and were at the 17%, 17%, 60%, and 39% historical quantiles respectively. [5][28] 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - This week, the issuance scale of certificates of deposit decreased, and the net financing amount decreased compared to the previous week. The total issuance was 585.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 82.91 billion yuan compared to the previous week; the total maturity was 664.37 billion yuan, an increase of 11.64 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing amount was - 78.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 94.55 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [5][32] - By bank type, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale. This week, the issuance scales of certificates of deposit by state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 151.88 billion, 161.56 billion, 223.54 billion, and 44.51 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 214.34 billion, 69.4 billion, 45.4 billion, and 14.02 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [32] - By maturity type, the 6 - month issuance scale was the highest. The issuance scales of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year certificates of deposit were 44.1 billion, 133.53 billion, 236.64 billion, 88.58 billion, and 122.43 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 311.5 billion, 443.3 billion, 929.5 billion, 806.6 billion, and - 2697 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [33] - This week, the issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit by different banks and with different maturities showed differentiation. By bank type, as of June 6th, the issuance interest rates of 1 - year certificates of deposit by joint - stock banks and city commercial banks changed by 0BP and - 2.83BP respectively compared to May 30th, and were at the 2% and 1% historical quantiles. By maturity, as of June 6th, the issuance interest rates of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 6 - month certificates of deposit changed by 2.64BP, 4.13BP, and - 5.23BP respectively compared to May 30th, and were at the 6%, 2%, and 1% historical quantiles. [41] - This week, the Shibor rates generally declined. As of June 6th, the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1 - month, and 3 - month Shibor rates changed by - 6BP, - 11.7BP, - 15.1BP, - 0.1BP, and - 0.1BP respectively compared to May 30th, reaching 1.41%, 1.5%, 1.59%, 1.62%, and 1.65%. [43] - This week, the yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit flattened. As of June 6th, the yield - to - maturities of AAA - rated ChinaBond commercial bank certificates of deposit with maturities of 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, and 1 year were 1.63%, 1.66%, 1.65%, 1.68%, and 1.68% respectively, with changes of 8.49BP, - 0.52BP, - 3BP, - 3BP, and - 2.75BP compared to May 30th. [45] - This week, the bill interest rates showed differentiation. As of June 3rd, the 3 - month direct discount rate, 3 - month transfer discount rate, 6 - month direct discount rate, and 6 - month transfer discount rate of state - owned shares were 1.15%, 1.02%, 1.14%, and 1.09% respectively, with changes of - 5BP, - 14BP, 0BP, and 3BP compared to May 30th. [46] 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - This week, the main buyers of cash bonds were other product types, with a net purchase of 8.92 billion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous week's purchase scale; the main sellers were joint - stock banks, with a net sale of 22.38 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week's sale scale. [5][48] - This week, funds had a net purchase of 7.84 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 5.3 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 1.5533 billion yuan in credit bonds, 750 million yuan in other (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and 210 million yuan in certificates of deposit. By maturity, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 3 - 5 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased within 1 year. [5][48] - This week, wealth management products had a net purchase of 4.61 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 720 million yuan in interest - rate bonds, 1.04 billion yuan in credit bonds, 850 million yuan in other (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and 2 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. By maturity, interest - rate bonds and credit bonds were mainly increased within 1 year. [5][50] - This week, rural financial institutions had a net purchase of 3.99 billion yuan of cash bonds, including a decrease of 2.19 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, an increase of 80 million yuan in credit bonds, 360 million yuan in other (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and 5.73 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. By maturity, interest - rate bonds were mainly decreased in the 1 - 3 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased within 1 year. [50] - This week, insurance companies had a net purchase of 4.31 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 3.23 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 380 million yuan in credit bonds, a decrease of 210 million yuan in other (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and 900 million yuan in certificates of deposit. By maturity, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 20 - 30 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the 3 - 5 - year range. [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes the bond market situation last week through multiple indicators, including bond market sentiment, institutional duration, leverage ratio, secondary trading, allocation power, primary subscription, and relative valuation, presenting the changes and trends of each indicator. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Sentiment - The bond market sentiment index last week was 115.8, down 0.1 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 49.0%, down 6.8 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 2. Institutional Duration Tracking - Last Friday, the fund duration was 2.17 years, up 0.02 years from the previous Friday; the rural commercial bank duration was 2.85 years, down 0.01 years from the previous Friday; the insurance duration was 6.79 years, down 0.01 years from the previous Friday [1]. 3. Leverage Ratio Tracking - The balance of pledged repurchase last week was 11.3 trillion yuan, up 0.3 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large banks was 4.1 trillion yuan, up 0.3 trillion yuan from the previous value; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 4. Secondary Trading Tracking - In terms of turnover rate last week, the 30Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 1.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value; the 10Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 0.9%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value; the 10Y China Development Bank bond turnover rate was 28.5%, up 2.3 percentage points from the previous value; the ultra - long - term credit bond turnover rate was 0.53%, down 0.12 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 5. Institutional Allocation Power Tracking - In terms of bond market allocation power, the newly issued share of bond funds last week was 9.8 billion yuan, the same as the previous value; in terms of risk preference, the stock market risk premium was 2.13%, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the US dollar index was 70.7, down 0.3 from the previous value [2]. - The 6M bill transfer discount rate minus the 6M certificate of deposit fell 0.2bp to - 59.5bp, indicating a decline in loan demand. In terms of institutional allocation power, the rural commercial bank bond allocation index was 45.0%, up 124.1 percentage points from the previous value; the insurance bond allocation index was 47.6%, down 30.2 percentage points from the previous value; the money market fund bond allocation index was - 54.9%, down 47.5 percentage points from the previous value. The insurance second - tier perpetual bond allocation index was - 4.7%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous value [3]. 6. Primary Subscription Tracking - Last week, the full - field multiple of Treasury bonds was 3.5 times, the full - field multiple of local bonds fell 1.6 times to 22.3 times, and the full - field multiple of China Development Bank bonds rose 0.1 times to 3.2 times [3]. 7. Relative Valuation Tracking - Last week, the spread between the 10 - year China Development Bank bond and the Treasury bond widened 1.3bp to 2.3bp, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds narrowed 1.9bp to 12.6bp, the spread between the old and new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds narrowed 0.4bp to 2.8bp, and the spread between the 10 - year local bond and the Treasury bond narrowed 1.3bp to 11.0bp [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Based on the calculation results of spot bond trading data, the central duration of all pure bond funds increased by 0.07 years to 3.15 years week-on-week this week [3]. - The median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased and the divergence decreased this week. The median 5DMA of all medium - and long - term pure bond funds reached 2.85 years, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 years, at the 99.3% quantile in the past three years, and the 5DMA of duration divergence was 0.48, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02, at the 57.4% quantile in the past three years [3]. - The median duration of short - term pure bond funds decreased and the divergence increased this week. The median 5DMA of all short - term bond funds reached 0.85 years, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 years, at the 74.2% quantile in the past three years, and the 5DMA of duration divergence was 0.49, a week - on - week increase of 0.01, at the 74.4% quantile [3]. - The turnover rate of ultra - long - term interest rate bonds decreased and most of the turnover rates of credit bonds increased this week. As of May 23, 2025, the 10DMA of the turnover rate of treasury bonds with a term of over 10 years remained flat week - on - week at 2.40%, at the 80.7% quantile level in the past three years, while the turnover rates of most 3 - 5 - year credit bonds increased [3]. - The leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased by 0.01 percentage points to 107.0% week - on - week this week. The leverage ratio of insurance companies increased by 0.20 percentage points to 125.6%, the leverage ratio of banks increased by 0.02 percentage points to 102.6%, the leverage ratio of securities companies decreased by 2.95 percentage points to 198.1%, and the leverage ratio of broad funds decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 111.8% [3]. - The scale of existing wealth management products in the whole market increased by 59.84 billion yuan week - on - week last week. The increase was in line with the seasonal level, and the net - breaking rate decreased slightly. The performance comparison benchmarks of newly issued wealth management products showed different trends for different terms [3]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Bond Fund Duration Central Point Increased - The central duration of all pure bond funds increased by 0.07 years to 3.15 years week - on - week this week [3][8]. - For medium - and long - term pure bond funds, the median duration of different types (interest - rate type, credit type, and all) showed different changes in terms of median and divergence, with most of the median durations increasing and the divergence showing different trends [3]. - For short - term pure bond funds, the median duration decreased and the divergence increased, with different trends for different types (interest - rate type and credit type) [3]. 2. This Week's Ultra - Long - Term Interest Rate Bond Turnover Rate Decreased, and Most Credit Bond Turnover Rates Increased - The turnover rates and their quantiles of different types of bonds (interest rate bonds, credit bonds, short - duration assets) for different terms are presented. For example, the 10 - year - plus treasury bond turnover rate 10DMA was 2.40% and remained flat week - on - week, at the 80.7% quantile in the past three years [3][22]. - The week - on - week changes in the turnover rates of different bonds are shown. Most 3 - 5 - year credit bond turnover rates increased [3][25]. - The turnover rates, their quantiles in the past three years, and the valuation spreads of local government bonds in different provinces and cities are provided. Sichuan, Shandong, and Anhui had relatively high local government bond turnover rates, and the 7 - 10 - year (inclusive) valuation spreads were 14.36bps, 15.03bps, and 15.37bps respectively [3][27]. 3. This Week's Allocation - Oriented Leverage Ratio Increased, and Trading - Oriented Leverage Ratio Decreased - The inter - bank bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.01 percentage points to 107.0% week - on - week. The leverage ratios of insurance companies, banks, securities companies, and broad funds changed differently, with insurance companies and banks increasing, and securities companies and broad funds decreasing [3][29]. 4. Last Week's Wealth Management Scale Increased, and the Net - Breaking Rate Decreased - The scale of existing wealth management products in the whole market increased by 59.84 billion yuan week - on - week last week, in line with the seasonal level. The net - breaking rate decreased to 0.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11pcts [3]. - By term, the scale of wealth management products within 1 month (inclusive) increased significantly, the daily - open type decreased significantly, and the scales of other terms increased slightly. By investment nature, the scale of fixed - income wealth management products increased significantly, the cash - management type decreased significantly, and other investment types increased slightly [3]. - The performance comparison benchmarks of newly issued wealth management products for different terms showed different trends, with those within 1 month (inclusive) and 1 - 3 years (inclusive) increasing, those within 6 months - 1 year (inclusive) remaining flat, and others decreasing [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint Last week, the sentiment in the bond market weakened. The bond market sentiment index, diffusion index, and some other indicators showed declines, while certain turnover rates and configuration forces also changed [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Sentiment - The bond market sentiment index last week was 113.3, down 0.9 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 42.4%, down 10.5 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 2. Institutional Duration - The fund duration on the last Friday was 2.17 years, unchanged from the previous Friday; the rural commercial bank duration was 2.84 years, up 0.02 years from the previous Friday; the insurance duration was 6.74 years, down 0.03 years from the previous Friday [1]. 3. Leverage Ratio - The balance of pledged repurchase last week was 10.6 trillion yuan, down 0.4 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large - scale banks was 3.1 trillion yuan, down 0.7 trillion yuan from the previous value; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.4%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous value [1]. 4. Secondary Trading - In terms of turnover rate last week, the 30Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 1.9%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value; the 10Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 1.0%, unchanged from the previous value; the 10Y China Development Bank bond turnover rate was 29.3%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous value; the ultra - long - term credit bond turnover rate was 0.47%, up 0.07 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 5. Allocation Power - The newly issued share of bond funds last week was 6.3 billion yuan, down 12.9 billion yuan from the previous value; the stock market risk premium was 1.36%, down 0.03 percentage points from the previous value; the US dollar index was 99.8, down 1.3 from the previous value [2]. 6. First - level Subscription - The full - field multiple of Treasury bonds last week dropped 0.2 times to 3.0 times; the full - field multiple of local bonds dropped 2.1 times to 21.0 times; the full - field multiple of China Development Bank bonds rose 0.1 times to 3.1 times [3]. 7. Relative Valuation - Last week, the spread between 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds narrowed 3.3bp to - 0.2bp; the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds narrowed 3.5bp to 17.1bp; the spread between old and new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds narrowed 0.3bp to 3.2bp; the spread between 10 - year local bonds and Treasury bonds narrowed 3.4bp to 15.1bp [3].

Core Viewpoint - Warner Bros. Discovery has been downgraded to junk status by S&P Global Ratings, reflecting significant financial challenges and increased default risk [1][2] Group 1: Credit Rating and Financial Health - S&P downgraded Warner Bros. Discovery's issuer credit rating to "BB+", one notch below the lowest investment-grade rating of "BBB-" [1] - The downgrade is primarily due to declining revenues and cash flows from traditional linear television, with projected leverage rising to 4.3 times by the end of 2025, exceeding the investment-grade threshold of 3.5 times [2] - The company currently has approximately $38 billion in outstanding debt, with about $31 billion included in the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index [2] Group 2: Market Perception and Investor Sentiment - Despite the downgrade by S&P, Moody's and Fitch maintain higher ratings for the company at Baa3 and BBB- respectively, which may still attract some investors [2][4] - Investor sentiment is expected to become more cautious regarding the company's bonds, especially if revenue and cash flow continue to decline [2][3] Group 3: Operational Challenges - Warner Bros. Discovery faces ongoing operational challenges, including a decline in traditional linear TV advertising and subscription users, high merger-related debt, content impairment, and rising costs associated with streaming transformation [4] - The company has struggled to reduce debt and improve leverage ratios to meet investment-grade standards, with analysts noting that the company's bonds still have higher option-adjusted spreads compared to other high-yield rated issuers [3]

Trade Relations and Economic Indicators - The significant reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. has improved trade expectations, with the U.S. comprehensive tariff rate on China remaining around 40%[2] - April export data exceeded expectations, but PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, indicating underlying economic weaknesses[2] - New loan issuance in April was below expectations, with cumulative new household loans in the first four months at a near ten-year low[2] Market Trends and Monetary Policy - The bond market has entered a defensive phase, with yields generally rising; the 10-year government bond yield increased to 1.68% (+5bp) and the 30-year yield to 1.88% (+4bp)[11] - Market sentiment is shifting towards a "trend over volatility" approach, delaying expectations for further interest rate cuts until after Q2 data is released in July[2] - The likelihood of a return to a tight funding environment similar to Q1 is low due to several factors, including stable bank liabilities and a supportive central bank stance[3] Investment Strategy and Bond Valuation - The bond market is expected to experience a period of volatility, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.7%[26] - In the short-term, the focus should be on evaluating price-performance ratios, particularly in the 1-3 year bond segment, which currently shows a high liquidity advantage[26] - For mid-term bonds (5-7 years), the pricing uncertainty is moderate, while the 10-year agricultural development bonds offer attractive spreads[6] Financial Products and Risk Assessment - The total scale of wealth management products decreased by 771 billion yuan to 31.49 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal decline[32] - The proportion of wealth management products with negative returns has slightly increased to 1.96%, but remains relatively low compared to historical levels[38] - The overall performance of wealth management products not meeting expectations has decreased to 17.4%, indicating improved performance across various institutions[44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on the calculation results of spot bond trading data, the duration center of all bond - type funds decreased by 0.03 years week - on - week to 3.08 years [5]. - Based on the measurement model, the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased and the divergence decreased. The median 5DMA of all medium - and long - term pure bond funds reached 2.66 years, a week - on - week increase of 0.23 years, at the 96% quantile in the past three years, and the 5DMA of duration divergence was 0.50, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03, at the 66% quantile in the past three years [5]. - The median duration of short - term pure bond funds decreased and the divergence decreased. The median 5DMA of all short - term bond funds reached 0.93 years, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 years, at the 92.7% quantile in the past three years, and the 5DMA of duration divergence was 0.47, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01, at the 66.7% quantile [5]. - Most bond turnover rates increased this week, while the turnover rates of some long - term credit bonds decreased. As of May 16, 2025, the 10DMA of the 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank bond turnover rate increased by 3.22 pcts week - on - week to 13.52%, at the 86.6% quantile in the past three years, while the 10DMA of the turnover rate of medium - term notes over 10 years decreased by 0.01 pcts week - on - week to 0.37%, at the 16.4% quantile [5]. - The inter - bank bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.03 percentage points week - on - week to 107.0%. The insurance company leverage ratio decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 125.3%, the bank leverage ratio increased by 0.39 percentage points to 102.6%, the securities company leverage ratio decreased by 28.31 percentage points to 204.2%, and the broad - based fund leverage ratio decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 111.9% [5]. - The total market wealth management outstanding scale increased by 265.511 billion yuan week - on - week last week, in line with the seasonal level, and the net - breaking rate decreased slightly. The net - breaking rate of the total market wealth management unit net value was 1.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 pcts [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This week, the duration center of medium - and long - term interest - rate pure bond funds increased, and the divergence decreased - The duration center of all bond funds decreased by 0.03 years week - on - week to 3.08 years [5][10]. - As of May 16, 2025, the duration center of all medium - and long - term pure bond funds rose to the 95.7% quantile in the past three years, and the duration center of all short - term pure bond funds decreased to the 92.7% quantile in the past three years [12]. - The median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate pure bond funds increased, and the divergence decreased [5][14]. - The median duration of medium - and long - term credit - type pure bond funds increased, and the divergence decreased [5][16]. - The median duration of short - term interest - rate pure bond funds decreased, and the divergence increased [5][18]. - The median duration of short - term credit - type pure bond funds decreased, and the divergence decreased [5][18]. 3.2 This week, most bond turnover rates increased, while the turnover rates of some long - term credit bonds decreased - As of May 16, 2025, the 10DMA of the turnover rates of various bonds with different maturities are presented in detail, such as the 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank bond turnover rate 10DMA was 13.52%, and the 10 - year - plus medium - term note turnover rate 10DMA was 0.37% [22]. - The quantiles of the turnover rates of various bonds in the past three years are also provided, for example, the 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank bond turnover rate was at the 86.6% quantile, and the 10 - year - plus medium - term note turnover rate was at the 16.4% quantile [22]. - The week - on - week changes in the 10DMA of the turnover rates of various bonds are given, like the 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank bond turnover rate 10DMA increased by 3.22 pcts week - on - week, and the 10 - year - plus medium - term note turnover rate 10DMA decreased by 0.01 pcts week - on - week [25]. - The 10DMA of the turnover rates of local government bonds in various provinces and cities as of May 16, 2025, their quantiles in the past three years, and the valuation spreads of 7 - 10 - year and 20 - 30 - year local bonds are listed. Shandong, Jiangsu, and Gansu had relatively high local bond turnover rates, with 7 - 10 - year (inclusive) valuation spreads reaching 15.49 bps, 14.42 bps, and 12.47 bps respectively [27]. 3.3 This week, except for the increase in the bank leverage ratio, the leverage ratios of other non - bank institutions decreased - The inter - bank bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.03 percentage points week - on - week to 107.0% [5][37]. - The insurance company leverage ratio decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 125.3% [5][32]. - The bank leverage ratio increased by 0.39 percentage points to 102.6% [5][33]. - The securities company leverage ratio decreased by 28.31 percentage points to 204.2% [5][36]. - The broad - based fund leverage ratio decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 111.9% [5][36]. 3.4 Last week, the wealth management scale increased, and the net - breaking rate decreased - The total market wealth management outstanding scale increased by 265.511 billion yuan week - on - week last week, in line with the seasonal level [5][38]. - In terms of different terms, the scale of daily - open wealth management increased significantly last week, the scale of 1 - 3 - year (inclusive) wealth management decreased slightly, and the scales of other - term wealth management increased slightly [5]. - In terms of different investment natures, the scales of fixed - income and cash - management wealth management increased significantly, and the scales of other investment types increased slightly [5]. - The net - breaking rate of the total market wealth management unit net value was 1.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 pcts [5]. - In terms of different terms, the performance comparison benchmarks of daily - open and 1 - 3 - month (inclusive) newly - issued wealth management products increased, while those of other - term varieties decreased [5].