Group 1: Corporate Governance and Market Dynamics - The Chinese government has issued opinions to enhance the modern enterprise system, focusing on improving corporate governance structures and supporting both state-owned and private enterprises [1] - The opinions emphasize the importance of independent directors and the introduction of institutional investors with over 5% shareholding to enhance corporate governance [1] - A total of over 500 listed companies in the A-share market are set to distribute more than 58.5 billion yuan in cash dividends, indicating a strong trend in shareholder returns [2] Group 2: Automotive Industry Trends - The automotive market is experiencing heightened competition, with a product competitiveness index of 85.5 for April 2025, driven by consumer stimulus policies and promotional activities [3] - Car manufacturers are actively implementing strategies to increase market share, including trade-in subsidies and promotional financing options [3] Group 3: Fund Management and Investment Trends - The issuance of equity funds is on the rise, with 16 new floating management fee funds set to launch, indicating a strong interest from investors [4] - The private equity industry has seen its management scale exceed 20 trillion yuan, attributed to a recovering issuance market and improved performance [5] Group 4: Commodity Prices and Industry Outlook - The tungsten industry is witnessing a price surge, with black tungsten concentrate prices reaching 165,500 yuan per ton, driven by supply-demand dynamics [6] - The paper pulp market is entering a phase of tentative recovery, with domestic pulp production capacity increasing as companies pursue integrated projects [13] Group 5: Currency and Market Impact - The renminbi has reached a six-month high against the US dollar, which is expected to benefit the Chinese stock market as capital flows shift towards non-US assets [7] - Goldman Sachs reports that a 1% appreciation of the renminbi could lead to a 3% increase in Chinese stock prices, highlighting the positive correlation between currency strength and market performance [7] Group 6: Corporate Leadership Changes - Longi Green Energy has announced significant management changes, with founder Li Zhenguo stepping back and his daughter being nominated for the board, indicating a strategic shift in leadership focus [9] - The company aims to leverage dual leadership in strategy and technology to navigate the challenges in the photovoltaic industry [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 0.87%, underperforming the market by 0.25 percentage points, while the paper sub-sector declined by 0.47%, underperforming the market by 1.59 percentage points [2][13] - The report highlights that the cultural paper sector is entering an off-season, with pulp and paper prices declining [4] - Recommendations include leading companies in the integrated pulp and paper industry such as Sun Paper (002078, Buy), and special paper leaders like Xianhe Co. (603733, Buy) [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 0.87%, while the paper sub-sector fell by 0.47%, ranking 12th among 28 first-level industries [2][13] - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing ranked by growth were furniture, packaging and printing, cultural and entertainment products, and paper, with respective increases of 1.67%, 1.09%, 0.21%, and a decrease of 0.47% in the paper sector [2][13] Industry Chain Data Tracking - The report notes a decline in wood pulp product prices, with the average market price for double glue paper dropping by 48 CNY/ton, copper plate paper by 10 CNY/ton, and white card paper by 41 CNY/ton [39] - The profitability of wood pulp products is declining, with small paper companies experiencing a decrease of 78 CNY/ton for double glue paper, while large companies saw a decrease of 48 CNY/ton [49] - Mechanized paper and board production for the first quarter of 2025 reached 38.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [58] Raw Materials - Domestic waste paper prices slightly increased by 1 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices remained stable [24] - The report indicates that the inventory of wood pulp at two major Chinese ports reached 1.81 million tons, a 1% increase from the previous month [25][33] Profitability Levels - Profitability for wood pulp products is declining, with small companies seeing significant drops in profitability across various paper types [49] - The report highlights a divergence in profitability for boxboard paper, with low-grade boxboard increasing by 7 CNY/ton while high-grade boxboard decreased by 8 CNY/ton [56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 3.02%, outperforming the market by 1.02 percentage points, with the paper sub-sector rising by 2.17%, also surpassing the market by 0.16 percentage points [2][13] - The report highlights that the cultural paper sector is entering an off-peak season, leading to a decline in pulp and paper prices [4] - The report recommends leading companies in the integrated forest-pulp-paper industry, such as Sun Paper (002078, Buy), and suggests focusing on leading special paper companies like Xianhe Co. (603733, Buy) and Huawang Technology (605377, Buy) [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 3.02%, while the paper sub-sector increased by 2.17%, ranking 9th among 28 first-level industries [2][13][20] Industry Chain Data Tracking - The report notes a decline in wood pulp product prices, with domestic waste prices slightly increasing by 1.5 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices decreased by 5-10 USD/ton [9][24] - The average market price for finished paper products saw declines: double glue paper down by 38 CNY/ton, copper plate paper down by 45 CNY/ton, and white card paper down by 48 CNY/ton [39][40][42] Profitability Levels - Profitability in cultural paper is diverging, with small paper companies seeing an increase of 25 CNY/ton in double glue paper, while large companies experienced a decrease of 43 CNY/ton [48][49] - The profitability of packaging paper is declining, with white card paper profitability down by 20-48 CNY/ton [48][51] Production Data - The cumulative production of mechanical paper and paperboard in the first quarter of 2025 reached 38.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [57] - The report indicates that the import volume of paper and paperboard decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, while the export volume increased by 10.7% [57]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.898 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.886 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year but up 37.9% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's profitability is improving due to the synchronized increase in pulp and paper prices, with a balanced business development [1][2] - The company is advancing its projects in Nanning and is expected to achieve a fully integrated pulp and paper production model [3] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 15.8%, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9 percentage points [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 0.886 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 15.8% [1][4] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 3.62 billion, 4.28 billion, and 4.73 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.8X, 9.2X, and 8.3X [4][6] Market Trends - The prices of cultural paper and white card paper have increased since November 2024, with Q1 2025 average prices for double glue, copper plate, and white card paper rising by 3.8%, 4.4%, and 2.7% respectively [2] - The company anticipates continued improvement in profitability in Q2 2025, supported by low costs and new production lines coming online [2][3] Production Capacity - By the end of 2024, the company's total production capacity exceeded 12 million tons, with pulp and paper capacities reaching 5 million tons and 7.29 million tons respectively [3] - The company is accelerating the planting of forest land in Laos, expecting to add over 10,000 hectares annually, which will support its pulp and paper production [3]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 仙鹤股份(603733) | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 仙鹤股份：盈利环比改善，产能稳步扩张，林 浆纸布局持续完善 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 04 日 盈利预测&投资评级：我们预计 2025-2027 年公司归母净利润分别为 13.5、 17.2、20.1 亿元，对应 PE 估值分别为 11.0X、8.7X、7.4X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：终端需求不及预期，产能投放不及预期，竞争加剧。 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 事 ...

| 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 仙鹤股份：盈利环比改善，产能稳步扩张，林 浆纸布局持续完善 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 04 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary]2024 年报&2025 一季报。2024 年公司实现收入 102.74 亿元 （同比+20.1%），归母净利润 10.04 亿元（同比+51.2%），扣非归母净利润 9.33 亿元（同比+56.9%）；单 Q4 收入 30.12 亿元（同比+28.7%），归母净利润 1.87 亿元（同比-33.8%），扣非归母净利润 1.91 亿元（同比-31.7%）。25Q1 公司实 现收入 29.91 亿元（同比+35.4%），归母净利润 2.36 亿 ...

Governance and Compliance - In 2024, the company adhered to various laws and regulations to enhance its corporate governance structure, aligning with the requirements set by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] - The company was included in the Shenzhen 50 Index and received an ESG AAA rating, reflecting its commitment to compliance and governance [2] Financial Performance - The company achieved an industrial output value exceeding 46 billion CNY in 2024, marking a doubling of output for two consecutive years [5] - The net profit for 2024 was reported at 5.13 billion CNY, with a total revenue of 53.24 billion CNY, representing a 10% year-on-year increase in total production [7] Production and Projects - By the end of 2024, the company had invested 94.5 billion CNY in its Nanning project, which includes multiple production lines for various paper products [5] - The company aims to achieve a forest land retention target of 120,000 hectares by 2030, with significant progress made in 2024 [6] Environmental Initiatives - The company’s renewable energy sources accounted for 44.75% of its total energy consumption, with ongoing projects in solar and biomass energy [8] - In 2024, the company invested 5.15 billion CNY in ecological and environmental management, focusing on waste treatment and clean production [13] Market Strategy - The company emphasizes a "price-performance ratio" approach, focusing on the balance between product quality and pricing [3] - The company plans to enhance its capital structure and reduce financial risks while ensuring stable cash flow [9] Community Engagement - In 2024, the company allocated 7.67 million CNY to various public welfare initiatives, including 4 million CNY for educational support [10] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in high-end packaging and specialty paper markets, despite challenges in the cultural paper sector due to digitalization [19] - The overall paper and board production in China reached 158.47 million tons in 2024, a historical high, with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 9.9 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 890 million yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year [5][6] - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a year-on-year drop in product prices, despite a sequential increase in prices [6] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 15.8%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percentage points but an increase of 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - The company is set to launch new production capacities in 2025, enhancing the collaborative development capabilities of its three major bases [7] - The report slightly raises the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 3.62 billion, 4.31 billion, and 4.94 billion yuan respectively, reflecting an increase of 3%, 4%, and 6% [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 9.9 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 890 million yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin was 15.8%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9 percentage points [6] - The company’s operating expenses ratio was 5.1%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] Production Capacity and Strategy - New production capacities in 2025 include various projects across the Shandong and Guangxi bases, expected to enhance collaborative development [7] - The company aims to complete the "integrated forestry-pulp-paper project" by the end of 2025, optimizing its operational layout [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 3.62 billion, 4.31 billion, and 4.94 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.30, 1.54, and 1.77 yuan [7] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 11, 9, and 8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 1.92%, outperforming the market by 1.53 percentage points, with the paper sub-sector rising by 2.14%, exceeding the market by 1.76 percentage points [2][12] - The report highlights a downward trend in pulp prices, with Chilean hardwood pulp prices dropping to $560 per ton, a decrease of $70 per ton, and softwood pulp prices at $770 per ton, down by $55 per ton [4][23] - The report suggests that the industry is entering a seasonal downturn, leading to a reduction in pulp costs, and recommends leading companies in the integrated forest-pulp-paper sector such as Sun Paper (002078, Buy) [4] - The report anticipates a significant slowdown in the growth of new supply in the paper industry by 2025, with overall supply and demand expected to gradually improve [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 1.92% from April 21 to April 27, 2025, ranking 7th among 28 first-level industries [12] - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing saw varying increases, with packaging and printing leading at 4.39%, followed by cultural products at 2.78%, paper at 2.14%, and furniture at -0.28% [12][17] Industry Chain Data Tracking Raw Materials - Waste paper prices remained stable, while pulp prices and dissolving pulp prices decreased [23] - The national waste paper price (excluding tax) fell by 1 yuan per ton to 1439 yuan per ton [23] - Chilean hardwood pulp prices decreased by $70 per ton, while softwood pulp prices fell by $55 per ton [23][29] Finished Paper - Most paper prices declined, with double glue paper down by 38 yuan per ton, copper plate paper down by 14 yuan per ton, and white card paper down by 39 yuan per ton [37] - High-end corrugated paper prices remained stable, while low-end corrugated paper prices decreased by 47 yuan per ton [37][44] Profitability Levels - Profitability varied among cultural papers, with small paper companies seeing an increase of 17 yuan per ton in double glue paper, while large companies experienced a decrease of 41 yuan per ton [46] - The profitability of white card paper decreased by 17-39 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [49] Production and Inventory - The cumulative production of mechanical paper and paperboard from January to March 2025 was 38.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [55] - The inventory of finished products in the paper and paper products industry was estimated at 732 billion yuan [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company demonstrates steady revenue growth, with a 2024 revenue of 40.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.99% [7] - The integrated operation of forestry, pulp, and paper is highlighted as a competitive advantage, positioning the company as a leader in the industry [7] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in demand and profitability, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 3.51 billion yuan, 3.99 billion yuan, and 4.46 billion yuan respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 13%, 14%, and 12% [7][8] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 3.10 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.50% year-on-year [7] - The company’s paper sales reached 7.51 million tons in 2024, marking a 12.76% increase year-on-year, while pulp sales remained stable at 1.46 million tons [7] - The report projects total revenue growth of 8% for 2025 and 2026, with a slight decrease to 6% in 2027 [8] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 53.03 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 41.3% [10] - The report provides a forecast for earnings per share (EPS) to increase from 1.11 yuan in 2024 to 1.60 yuan in 2027 [8] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 12.6 in 2024 to 8.8 in 2027, indicating improved valuation attractiveness over time [8]