Core Viewpoint - Recent volatility in gold prices has led to a significant downturn after a two-month surge, prompting investors to reconsider their strategies [1][3] Short-term Outlook - Gold is currently not a wise investment choice due to high leverage in gold ETFs and a crowded "long gold" trade, leading to rapid price declines from historical highs [1][3] - Investors are advised to wait for gold prices to reach the $3,800-$3,900 per ounce range for potential buying opportunities [1][9] Long-term Outlook - A quantitative model indicates that the gold price center is projected to be $4,814 per ounce by 2026, suggesting that gold still holds long-term investment value [2][10] - The model is based on macroeconomic indicators, with a neutral assumption placing the price center at $3,886 per ounce in the second half of 2025, reinforcing the $3,800-$3,900 range as a significant support level [9][10] Investment Strategy - For short-term trading funds, the best strategy is to remain on the sidelines until volatility decreases significantly, as trading in high-volatility environments yields lower profit margins [3][4] - Long-term investors should look for opportunities to accumulate positions in the $3,800-$3,900 per ounce range, which is identified as a fundamental support level [3][9] Market Dynamics - Historical analysis shows that a return to low volatility is a prerequisite for the initiation of new upward or downward trends in gold prices [4][10] - The ongoing trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue, particularly in light of rising debt risks in developed markets [10]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. The nominal/real interest rates of 10Y US Treasuries remained unchanged or declined, with inflation expectations rising [1][15]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has generally loosened, and the domestic interbank funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with the term spread (10Y-1Y) narrowing [1][22]. Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has continued to decline, with volatility across major indices also decreasing. More than half of the sectors still have trading activity above the 80th percentile [2][29]. - The volatility of major indices has decreased, while the volatility of the communication and electronics sectors remains above the 80th percentile [2][34]. Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, non-ferrous metals, communication, and machinery sectors have seen high research activity, with consumer services, light industry, chemicals, steel, and non-ferrous metals sectors experiencing a month-on-month increase in research activity [3][46]. Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have continued to raise net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has increased [4][52]. - The net profit forecasts for the financial, non-ferrous metals, machinery, coal, and electric new energy sectors for 2025/2026 have been raised [4][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and ChiNext indices for 2025/2026 have been increased, while the CSI 500 index has seen mixed adjustments [4][23]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has declined, continuing a net selling trend in A-shares. The trading volume ratio in sectors such as communication, non-ferrous metals, and banking has increased, while it has decreased in automotive, non-bank financials, and electronics [5][31]. - Northbound trading has mainly net bought in the pharmaceutical, non-ferrous metals, and electric new energy sectors, while net selling occurred in electronics, communication, and food and beverage sectors [5][33]. Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has seen a slight rebound, with a net purchase of 27 billion yuan last week. The main net purchases were in the electronic, communication, and non-bank financial sectors, while net sales occurred in automotive, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors [6][35]. Hot Stocks Trading - The trading volume on the "Dragon and Tiger List" has continued to decline, but the total trading volume on this list as a percentage of total A-share trading has increased. Sectors such as coal, building materials, and oil and petrochemicals have a relatively high and rising proportion of trading volume on this list [7][41]. Active Equity Fund Positions - The positions of actively managed equity funds have decreased, while ETFs have seen overall net redemptions. Actively managed equity funds have mainly increased positions in communication, electronics, and computing sectors, while reducing positions in home appliances, banking, and food and beverage sectors [8][45]. - The correlation between actively managed equity funds and large/mid-cap growth and small-cap value has increased [8][48]. - New equity fund establishment has increased, with the scale of actively managed funds decreasing and passively managed funds increasing [8][50].

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - Most domestic commodity futures rose, with the black - series leading the gains [1] - The CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.38%, a weekly increase of 28.55, a quarterly decrease of 0.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 16.83% [3] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 futures had a daily increase of 2.05%, a weekly increase of 10.18, and a year - to - date increase of 12.91% [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas Macro - The current volatility level in the overseas macro - environment is in a low - level accumulation stage. The "bad news is good news" logic may be coming to an end, and the internal volatility energy in the US is being accumulated, with a possible staged increase [7] - The US economic aggregate showed little growth, with a "K - shaped" structural characteristic. Government shutdown may widen the error and expected difference in inflation data. US regional banks are under pressure again [7] Domestic Macro - China's economic and financial data in September showed relative resilience, with structural highlights. Policy expectations were further strengthened, which is expected to boost physical work volume in the fourth quarter [7] - China's Q3 GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. September's social retail sales increased by 3.0% year - on - year [7] Group 3: Asset Views - There is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets next week. In the overseas market, the catalytic elasticity of government shutdown and data vacuum on interest - rate cut expectations has decreased, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline [7] - In the domestic market, with marginal changes in policy, physical work volume may rebound in the fourth quarter. Low - valued domestic commodity assets that were under pressure may have a rebound opportunity [7] Group 4: View Highlights Financial - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and rise due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles, with concerns about the crowding of small - and micro - cap funds [8] - Stock index options are expected to fluctuate as the overall market turnover declined slightly, with concerns about the insufficient liquidity in the options market [8] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment stage due to geopolitical and trade easing, and are expected to fluctuate, with attention to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8] Shipping - Container shipping on the European line is expected to fluctuate as the peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward - driving force, with attention to the rate of freight - price decline in September [8] Black Building Materials - Steel is expected to fluctuate as its fundamentals have marginally improved, with attention to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and hot - metal production [8] Energy Chemical - Crude oil is expected to fluctuate due to increased geopolitical risks and challenges to Russian oil exports, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation [10] Agriculture - Grains and oilseeds are expected to fluctuate. For example, soybean meal had a short - term rebound due to short - covering, with attention to weather, domestic demand, and trade frictions [10]

Market Summary - The market experienced significant volatility, with the index initially dropping over 1% to below 3880 points before rebounding in the afternoon, ultimately closing at 3922 points, up 0.22% [1][14] - The trading volume remained stable, maintaining above 1.6 trillion [1][14] - The market's upward movement was influenced by expectations surrounding the conclusion of the Fourth Plenary Session, leading to speculation and trading strategies focused on shorting at higher levels as long as historical highs are not breached [1][14] Technical Analysis - Key support level identified at 3880 points, with resistance at 3930 points and a critical point at 3920 [4][15] - The market's performance indicated a deep V-shaped rebound, with a long lower shadow on the daily candlestick chart, suggesting potential for further fluctuations [1][14] Options Market - The options market saw significant activity, with a notable rebound in put options after an initial surge in call options during the morning session [9][10] - The volatility index showed a slight increase, reflecting the market's response to the fluctuations in the underlying index, with a closing volatility of 15.09% [10][13] - The first trading day of new contracts was marked by intense competition between bullish and bearish positions, leading to rapid changes in option values [9][10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Global Market Volatility**: There is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets next week. In the overseas market, the catalytic effect of government shutdowns and data vacuums on interest - rate cut expectations is reduced, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline, increasing market volatility. In the domestic market, there are marginal policy changes, and physical work volume may rebound in the fourth quarter. Low - valued domestic commodity assets under pressure may have a rebound opportunity [7]. - **Asset Performance**: Precious metals and equity markets, which were most benefited from liquidity, may face increased short - term volatility. In the domestic market, low - valued commodity assets may rebound [7]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Index and Asset Price Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4577.6, up 1.57% daily, 2.06% weekly, down 0.87% monthly and quarterly, and up 16.75% this year. The SSE 50 futures closed at 3004.8, up 1.16% daily, 1.41% weekly, up 0.53% monthly and quarterly, and up 12.20% this year. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7052.8, with a complex set of fluctuations including a 2.08% daily increase and others [4]. - **Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.372, up 0.04% daily, down 0.01% weekly, and flat monthly and quarterly, down 0.58% this year. The 5 - year treasury bond futures closed at 105.715, up 0.06% daily, down 0.06% weekly, up 0.08% monthly and quarterly, down 0.77% this year [4]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.6219, unchanged daily, up 0.07% weekly, up 0.82% monthly, and down 9.03% this year. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1642, with various pip - based fluctuations [4]. - **Commodity Futures**: Overseas, COMEX gold closed at 4374.3, up 2.49% daily, 12.5% monthly, and 65.74% this year. NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 56.93, down 0.56% daily, 8.81% monthly, and 20.79% this year. In the domestic market, the container shipping European line index was at 1769.3, up 5.19% daily, 6.93% weekly, and down 21.61% this year [4][5]. 3.2 Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock markets showed a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles. Stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures are also expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Dovish expectations drive prices up. Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards, considering factors such as the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increased risk of the Fed's independence [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the rate of freight - price decline. The container shipping European line is expected to fluctuate as the peak season in the third quarter fades, and there is a lack of upward - driving force [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: The industry's demand data is poor, and it is expected that policies will release positive signals. Steel, iron ore, coke, and other products are expected to fluctuate, with various influencing factors such as policy changes, supply - and - demand situations, and production data [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: They are waiting for the clarity of macro - policies, and basic metals are in a state of shock consolidation. Copper, aluminum, zinc, and other metals have different short - term expectations based on factors such as supply - and - demand, policy, and inventory [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade - tension situation has slightly eased, but the supply - and - demand pattern of energy and chemicals remains weak. Crude oil, LPG, and many other products are expected to fluctuate, with most showing a downward - trending or complex - fluctuating state due to factors such as cost, supply - and - demand, and policy [10]. - **Agriculture**: The mood has warmed up, but the trends are differentiated. Oils, protein meals, and other agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as planting progress, weather, and trade relations [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the overseas macro - aspect, the current volatility level is in a low - lying stage, and the "bad news is good news" logic may be nearing its end. The internal fluctuation energy in the US is being accumulated and may rise periodically. In the domestic macro - aspect, the September economic and financial data showed relative resilience, and policy expectations were further strengthened, which may support low - valued domestic assets in the fourth quarter. - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets. Overseas, the catalytic elasticity of government shutdown and data vacuum on interest - rate cut expectations has decreased, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline. In China, policy changes may lead to a rebound in low - valued domestic commodity assets [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4506.8 with a daily increase of 0.48%, the SSE 50 futures at 2970.4 with a daily increase of 0.25%, the CSI 500 futures at 6909.2 with a daily increase of 0.67%, and the CSI 1000 futures at 7059.2 with a daily increase of 1.15%. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.334 with a daily decrease of 0.04%, the 5 - year at 105.655 with a daily decrease of 0.12%, the 10 - year at 108.11 with a daily decrease of 0.07%, and the 30 - year at 115.3 with a daily decrease of 0.49%. - **Foreign Exchange**: The central parity rate of the US dollar was 7.0973, up 24 pips. - **Interest Rates**: The 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield was 1.82%, down 1.6 bp, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.02%, up 3 bp [4]. 3.2 Popular Industry - **Electronics**: The index was 11821, with a daily increase of 2.01% and an annual increase of 51.00%. - **Power Equipment and New Energy**: The index was 11404, with a daily increase of 2.68% and an annual increase of 35.68%. - **Consumer Services**: The index was 6859, with a daily increase of 0.08% and an annual increase of 7.30% [4]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 57.25, up 0.53% daily; ICE Brent crude oil at 61.34, up 0.52% daily. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 4267.9, down 1.76% daily; COMEX silver at 50.625, down 5.25% daily. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper closed at 2778.5, down 0.63% daily; LME zinc at 2942.5, down 0.86% daily [4]. 3.4 Domestic Main Commodities - **Gold**: The price was 970.32, down 2.95% daily and up 57.11% annually. - **Silver**: The price was 11742, up 7.55% daily and up 15.74% annually. - **Coke**: The price was 2.03% higher daily and 5.36% higher weekly [5]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Finance**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles; stock index options are expected to fluctuate; treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September [8]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel products, iron ore, coke, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with different influencing factors for each [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most base metals are expected to fluctuate, waiting for the clarity of macro - policies [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to decline or fluctuate, affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - policies [10]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show a differentiated trend, with most expected to fluctuate, and some like sugar and pulp expected to decline in a volatile manner [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The underlying index market remains in a bull market in Q4 2025, but there is a local overheating of leveraged funds in the short - term. The implied volatility of options is at a moderately low level, and there may be local volatility pulses in Q4 due to increased Sino - US relations uncertainty. In a bull market with a negative skew structure, shorting out - of - the - money put options after local volatility pulses is worth attention. As Sino - US relations uncertainty grows, index trends may shift from unilateral upward to range - bound, and investors with long futures positions are advised to sell out - of - the - money call options near the upper bound of the range for additional income [4][5][66]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Pre - Q3 Financial Options Market Operation Option Market Activity Highly Differentiated - There are 12 listed financial options, with 5 on the SSE, 4 on the SZSE, and 3 on the CFFEX. From January 1 to September 25, 2025, the total trading volume was 1.353 billion contracts, with an average daily trading volume of 7.516 million contracts, a total turnover of 1.25744 trillion yuan, an average daily turnover of 6.986 billion yuan, and an average daily open interest of 8.706 million contracts. Compared with the same period in 2024, the average daily trading volume, turnover, and open interest increased by about 17%, 48%, and 47% respectively. In Q3 2025, the average daily turnover increased by 101.4% quarter - on - quarter. The turnover of small - and medium - cap index options and ChiNext options increased significantly, while that of large - cap index options changed little [10][11][12]. Market Prefers to Trade Growth - Oriented Index Options - In Q3 2025, the CSI 1000 index options had the highest market share at 33.29%, followed by the Southern CSI 500 ETF options at 18.05%, and the ChiNext ETF options at 12.85%. The market generally prefers growth - oriented index options with higher volatility [14]. The PCR of Open Interest Indicates Over - Enthusiasm among Put Option Sellers - In Q3 2025, the PCR of open interest of major financial options mostly followed the underlying index's fluctuations, showing an upward - trending oscillation. The PCR of IO and MO options reached extremely high levels above the 99th percentile, indicating an over - proportion of put option sellers and local market overheating [20]. Stock Index Options Market Volatility Option Implied Volatility Shows an Up - and - Down Trend - In Q3 2025, the implied volatility of options first rose and then fell. The average implied volatility of IO and MO options reached around the 90th and 87th percentiles in the past three years, respectively. During the upward movement of the underlying index, the implied volatility showed different patterns at different stages. Currently, the implied volatility has returned to a relatively low level in the past five - year period, and the room for further decline is limited [23][28][29]. The Proportion of Negative Skew Decreased Significantly in Q3 - The proportion of negative skew in Q3 decreased compared with Q2. The decrease was partly due to the end of the dividend period of index component stocks and the stagnation of small - cap stocks after late August, which reduced the hedging demand of public and private funds. The buying momentum of out - of - the - money call options weakened after reaching a high in late August, indicating market caution [33][35]. The Frequency of "Near - Low, Far - High" Implied Volatility Increases - Taking the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index options as examples, the proportion of the "near - low, far - high" term structure of the CSI 1000 index options increased in Q3, indicating a relatively stable market trend and a lower frequency of short - term sharp fluctuations, suggesting a healthier and more sustainable market upward movement [38][40]. Q4 Volatility Outlook - In Q3 2025, the difference between the implied volatility and the 30 - day historical volatility of IO and MO options had a certain range of fluctuations, and the average difference showed that the environment for option sellers improved compared with Q2. Currently, the implied volatility of the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index options has bottomed out and rebounded, with a moderately low premium level. There is a possibility of upward volatility pulses in Q4 [41][42][44]. Option Strategy Review and Recommendation Long - Term Excess Returns of IM Long Positions - As of October 10, 2025, long - term holding of the IM current - month contract has achieved a cumulative return of 44.5%, 11.2 percentage points higher than the CSI 1000 index. However, there was a significant retracement from mid - August to early September due to the stagnation of small - cap stocks and the convergence of futures discounts [45]. Returns of Put Option Sellers in the First Three Quarters - Back - testing shows that although put option sellers did not outperform the underlying index in Q3, the stability of the fund curve was better, and the average retracement was significantly reduced [48]. Quantitative Timing Strategy Based on Option Synthetic Underlying Premiums - The quantitative timing strategy based on ETF option synthetic underlying premiums has achieved an annualized return of 19.5% and a maximum retracement of 17.83% on the CSI 500 index futures since 2018. In the first three quarters of 2025, it achieved an absolute return of 21.41% with a maximum retracement of only 3.25% [54]. Classic Option Double - Selling Strategy - The double - selling strategy is most suitable for the relatively stable SSE 50 index options, with a cumulative return of 12.96% and a maximum retracement of less than 6% in the first three quarters of 2025. The IO option double - selling strategy has achieved positive returns but suffered a significant retracement during the unilateral market since July. The MO option double - selling strategy has the most unstable returns, with a cumulative return of - 2.52% and a relatively large maximum retracement [56][58]. Q4 2025 Outlook - In Q4 2025, the underlying index market is still in a bull market, but there is local overheating of leveraged funds in the short - term. The implied volatility of options is at a moderately low level, and there may be local volatility pulses. In a bull market with a negative skew structure, shorting out - of - the - money put options after local volatility pulses is worth attention. As Sino - US relations uncertainty grows, index trends may shift from unilateral upward to range - bound, and investors with long futures positions are advised to sell out - of - the - money call options near the upper bound of the range for additional income [66].

Group 1: Explanation of Volatility Indexes - Financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, while the commodity option implied volatility index is weighted by the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, showing the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility to historical volatility. A larger difference means higher implied volatility relative to historical volatility, and a smaller difference means lower [3] Group 2: Volatility Index Graphs - There are graphs showing the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and their differences (IV - HV) for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, silver, gold, soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, methanol, rubber, iron ore, PTA, copper, crude oil, aluminum, PVC, rebar, zinc, urea, palm oil, etc [4] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Volatility Spread Quantiles - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [5] - The document provides the implied volatility quantile rankings for different options such as 50ETF (0.70), 300 - stock index (0.82 and 0.57), corn (0.41), PTA (0.37 and 0.41), etc [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oscillation - Medium - short - term: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the overall situation of domestic news was stable, and the issue of the U.S. government shutdown continued to ferment overseas, but the actual impact on peripheral stock indices was limited. The contribution of foreign capital to the A - share index rally was not high, so the subsequent international influence was limited. With the expectation of narrowing Sino - U.S. interest rate differentials, macro - level risks were basically cleared, and the stock index entered a stage where it was more likely to rise than fall. In the short term, the pre - holiday market was in a high - level consolidation state, and the main contradiction between bulls and bears was the improvement of long - term fundamentals versus high short - term valuations. The time point for breaking the deadlock in October might be around the Fourth Plenary Session on the 20th. The small - cap cyclical style (including the previously undervalued optional consumer industry) was expected to be the direction of post - holiday capital speculation, but the rotation speed within the sector was expected to be relatively fast. Technology stocks remained the medium - term main line, but the short - term cost - performance was not high. Attention should be paid to the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - From October 1st to 8th, the cumulative cross - regional personnel flow in the whole society was expected to exceed 2.432 billion person - times, a record high, with an average daily flow of 304 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed that Fed officials were willing to cut interest rates further this year, but many officials were cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants believed that further easing of policies might be appropriate for the rest of the year [5]. 3.2 Stock Index Disk Review - **Market Tracking**: On the last trading day before the holiday, the A - share market oscillated at a high level. Among the four major indices, the SSE 50 rose 0.53%, the CSI 300 rose 0.45%, the CSI 500 rose 0.84%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.03%. In terms of sectors, aerospace and military industry (+3.45%) and basic metals (+3.04%) led the gains, while communication equipment (-1.71%) and insurance (-1.38%) lagged behind. More than 2,600 stocks rose, and 63 stocks hit the daily limit, with a relatively poor profit - making effect [5]. - **Technical Tracking**: There were high - level divergences on the daily line. The CSI 300 and CSI 500 were stronger than the SSE 50 and CSI 1000. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support and pressure between the "20 - day moving average + September 4th low - previous high". The weekly and monthly lines maintained an upward trend, and the medium - term bullish signal continued [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The pre - holiday trading volume of A - shares narrowed to about 2.1 trillion yuan. The willingness of funds to enter the market before the long holiday decreased, but it was still at a relatively high level in history [5]. 3.3 Core Logic Summary - After the holiday, the stock index was expected to continue the oscillation pattern with enlarged overall fluctuations. Trend traders were not recommended to chase high on the first trading day after the holiday. They could consider gradually increasing positions when the index pulled back to the 20 - day moving average or the low point in early September. If the long positions had achieved profits before the October meeting, they could take profits and exit in a timely manner [3]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - **Futures Operation**: Considering that the stock index failed to break through effectively before the holiday, trend traders were not recommended to chase high on the first trading day after the holiday. They could consider gradually increasing positions when the index pulled back to the 20 - day moving average or the low point in early September [4]. - **Options Operation**: The implied volatility declined before the holiday. The average IV of the CSI 300 for the current month fluctuated around 18%, which was at a medium - high level in history. Considering the limited news fluctuations during the holiday, the volatility was expected to decline slightly after the holiday, and the overall operation cost - performance was limited. It was recommended to wait for the volatility to rise before intervening in double - selling [4].

Group 1: Common Option Structures - The three common option structures—Snowball, Phoenix, and Fixed Coupon Notes (FCN)—are essentially barrier options, with specific characteristics regarding cash flow and risk exposure [2][3]. - The classic Snowball structure allows for cash flow only at maturity or upon knock-out, while the Phoenix structure enables monthly cash flow as long as the price is above the knock-in line [2]. - FCN provides fixed coupon payments regardless of price movements during the holding period, making it attractive for conservative investors due to a significantly lower probability of knock-in [2]. Group 2: Profit and Loss Scenarios - In scenarios without knock-in, all three structures yield similar returns, with higher coupon structures being more favorable [3]. - In cases where knock-in occurs but knock-out does not, Snowball and FCN can still yield returns, while Phoenix's cash flow is affected by the knock-in event [3]. - If knock-in occurs and the asset price is below the exercise price at maturity, losses may occur, with Snowball being the most adversely affected due to no cash flow during the holding period [3]. Group 3: Risk and Return Dynamics - The risk-return relationship indicates that Phoenix typically offers lower coupons than Snowball, while FCN generally has the lowest coupon rates [4]. Group 4: Market Timing Considerations - Proper market timing is essential, as no option structure guarantees profit in all market conditions [5]. Group 5: Delta and Volatility Analysis - All three structures maintain a positive Delta, indicating a bullish stance on the underlying asset, and are more suitable for moderate upward or sideways markets [7]. - The expected volatility is positively correlated with coupon rates, as higher volatility increases the likelihood of reaching knock-in conditions [8]. - The structures tend to be short volatility in most scenarios, making high volatility periods favorable for entry [10]. Group 6: Selection of Underlying Assets - The choice of underlying assets significantly impacts the performance of the structured products, with the China Securities 500 Index being identified as a suitable candidate due to its risk-return profile [14][16]. - The analysis of daily return distributions shows that the Hang Seng Tech Index has the lowest probability of extreme negative returns, making it a favorable option [14][15]. Group 7: Historical Backtesting and Timing Strategies - Historical backtesting indicates that FCN can effectively mitigate knock-in losses, making it a lower-risk option compared to Snowball [16]. - Rational timing strategies suggest that selecting more aggressive structures during low-risk periods and conservative structures during higher-risk periods can optimize returns [16]. Group 8: Structural Variations and Adjustments - The flexibility in setting barriers allows for various structural adjustments to balance risk and return, such as eliminating knock-in features or adjusting the knock-out thresholds [19].