（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 临近岁末春季行情，资金抢筹A股核心资产热情高涨，近5个交易日，同类最活跃A500ETF基金 （512050）累计吸金5.5亿元，近10个交易日，该ETF获得超24亿元资金净申购。 中信证券A股市场2026年投资策略表示，展望2026年，从大势研判来看，A股全球营收敞口企业已不局 限于少数公司，而是足以推动整个A股的行情，未来A股的基本面要放在全球市场需求去看，而不是单 看本土需求。在此框架下，中美格局决定了行情的节奏和顺畅程度，两个节点（中美签署贸易协议、美 国中期选举）可能将2026年的行情划为三段，中美签署协议后到美国中期选举前，中美格局相对最稳 定，这个阶段是做多权益市场的黄金期。 11月11日，A股主要指数高开后回落，沪指在4000点上方震荡蓄力，盘面上培育钻石、电池、光伏等概 念走强，截至10：16，A500ETF基金（512050）跌0.34%，盘中成交额快速突破9.6亿元位居同类第一。 持仓股中，华侨城A、三星医疗、方大炭素涨停，迈为股份、鹏辉能源、兴森科技等表现活跃。 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a volatile trading session with major indices opening high but subsequently retreating, while sectors like lithium batteries and AI computing saw increased activity, indicating a potential spring market rally driven by growth-oriented technology sectors [1] Market Performance - Major A-share indices opened high but faced a pullback, with sectors such as lithium batteries and AI computing showing activity, while previously strong sectors like optical modules and robotics led the decline [1] - Notable stocks such as New Yisheng, Industrial Fulian, and Jingwang Electronics fell over 3% [1] - The 5G Communication ETF (515050) dropped nearly 3%, and the ChiNext AI ETF (159381) fell over 2% [1] Fund Flows - The AI computing sector has seen a consolidation phase, with significant capital inflows; in the last 10 trading days, the 5G Communication ETF (515050) attracted a net subscription of 450 million yuan, while the ChiNext AI ETF (159381) accumulated 250 million yuan [1] Future Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the upcoming spring market, particularly for high-growth technology sectors [1] - Dongwu Securities predicts that the spring market will primarily focus on growth-oriented industrial trends, particularly those represented by AI [1] - The global technology industry is expected to experience a trend-driven growth, supported by China's unique advantages such as a large user base and manufacturing capabilities, which will facilitate deeper participation in global tech transformations [1] - The long-term logic of industrial development remains unchanged, with core global industry segments expected to build momentum for future growth after recent adjustments [1]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.16% at 4001.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.16%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.37% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 12,662 billion yuan, a decrease of 716 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 2,800 stocks declining [1][2] Sector Performance - The organic silicon sector surged due to the dual impact of polysilicon stockpiling and industry anti-involution news [1] - The fluorochemical, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and battery sectors showed significant gains [1] - Conversely, the AI corpus, software development, and component sectors experienced declines [1]

Group 1 - The renewable energy sector showed strong performance today, with significant gains in photovoltaic inverters, batteries, and energy storage concepts. The China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index rose by 4.3%, the National Securities New Energy Battery Index increased by 4.2%, the China Securities New Energy Index went up by 3.2%, and the China Securities Shanghai Environmental Exchange Carbon Neutrality Index climbed by 1.7% [1] - The energy storage battery ETF (159566) saw nearly 100 million shares net subscribed throughout the day. According to Wind data, this ETF has experienced net inflows for four consecutive trading days, totaling approximately 160 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The photovoltaic index focuses on one of the most promising future energy sources, consisting of 50 representative stocks from the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors of the industry. The index has a price-to-book ratio of 2.6 times and has risen by 4.3% since its inception [4]

Core Insights - Porsche has officially launched its R&D center in China to better cater to the unique demands of Chinese customers, recognizing significant differences in road conditions and traffic compared to Europe [2] - The R&D center will focus on understanding China's technology ecosystem, particularly in areas such as batteries, software, and chips, with the aim of integrating these insights into future Porsche vehicle development [2] - The center has a high degree of autonomy, exemplified by the development of an infotainment system specifically designed for the Chinese market, rather than a customized version of an existing product [2] - Porsche acknowledges China's leading position in battery technology and smart features, indicating a willingness to empower local teams to adopt new technologies while maintaining the brand's core identity [2]

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - A shares are likely to maintain high - level fluctuations, and the bond market and gold will experience short - term volatility. The report suggests paying attention to investment opportunities in directions such as computing power, chips, artificial intelligence, batteries, rare earths, and innovative drugs [13]. - The high risk preference is unfavorable to the bond market, but the high absolute yield makes it have long - term allocation value. The gold price may fluctuate in the short term, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [14]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Stock Market - **US Stocks and Hong Kong Stocks**: In the past week (20251027 - 20251102), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.24%, 0.71%, and 0.75% respectively, while the Nasdaq China Technology Index fell by 1.00%. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.97% [3]. - **A Shares**: The wind all - A index rose by 0.41%. Among them, the CSI A100 and CSI 300 fell by 0.51% and 0.43% respectively, while the CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind micro - cap stocks rose by 1.00%, 1.18%, 0.95%, and 0.34% respectively. In terms of sectors, the Shanghai blue - chip and growth sectors fell, the Shenzhen blue - chip sector fell while the growth sector rose, and the North Securities 50 index rose by 7.52%. Among the 30 CITIC industries, 21 industries rose, with the leading industries being basic chemicals, electric power and new energy, and comprehensive finance, with a weekly increase of more than 3.0%. Semiconductor, battery, photovoltaic, and other ETFs led the gains, with a weekly increase of more than 5% [4]. Bond Market - **Domestic Bonds**: In the past week, the price of treasury bond futures rose, and the yields of treasury bonds of all maturities decreased. The 10 - year treasury bond futures contract rose by 0.62%, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond decreased by 5.32 BP to 1.7954%. The central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 12008 billion yuan. The bond market leverage level decreased, and the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume decreased from 7.83 trillion yuan on October 24, 2025, to 6.71 trillion yuan on October 31, 2025 [5][7]. - **US Bonds**: In the past week, US bond yields increased, and the yield curve shifted upward as a whole. As of October 31, 2025, the 10 - year US bond yield increased by 9 BP to 4.11% [8]. Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar appreciated, and the US dollar index rose by 0.80%. The US dollar appreciated against the euro, pound, and yen. The US dollar exchange rate against the offshore and onshore RMB slightly decreased [9]. Gold Market - Gold prices continued to fall. The London spot gold price fell by 2.26% to $4011.50 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price fell by 3.08% to $3995.70 per ounce. The domestic gold price also continued to fall, with the Shanghai spot gold falling by 1.51% to 921.50 yuan per gram and the futures falling by 1.65% to 920.48 yuan per gram [10]. Policy and Event Impact - The central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading does not necessarily mean an increase in liquidity injection. It is only a liquidity management tool, and only an increase in net treasury bond purchases represents an increase in liquidity injection [11]. - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders in South Korea eased the economic and trade relations between the two countries, which is conducive to improving investors' risk preference [12].

Group 1: Global Gold Demand - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached 1313 tons in Q3 2025, marking the highest quarterly demand on record [1] - The total demand value amounted to $146 billion, driven primarily by investment demand [1] - Gold investment demand surged to 537 tons, a 47% year-on-year increase, accounting for 55% of total Q3 gold demand [1] Group 2: Storage Chip Market - Storage chip prices began to rise in September 2025, accelerating into Q4 due to supply shortages [2] - Major storage chip manufacturers shifted production capacity towards high-end chips for AI and data centers, leading to a significant reduction in traditional storage chip supply [2] - Current price increases in the spot market range from 60% to 80%, with some popular models seeing price hikes of up to 100% [2] Group 3: Smartphone Market - Global smartphone shipments reached 320.1 million units in Q3 2025, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth, indicating signs of recovery after a weak first half [2] Group 4: AI Server Market - TrendForce forecasts that AI server shipments will grow by over 20% in 2026, driven by steady demand from cloud service providers and the growth of AI applications [3] Group 5: Financial Performance of Companies - China Duty Free Group reported a 22.13% decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenues down 7.34% [7] - Everbright Securities experienced a 34.55% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenues up 27.83% [8] - Shanshan Co. reported a staggering 1121.72% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenues growing by 11.48% [9] - Agricultural Bank of China reported a net profit of 813.49 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a 3.66% year-on-year increase [19] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reported a net profit of 1018 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a 3.29% year-on-year increase [18] Group 6: Market Trends - The market experienced a significant downturn, with the ChiNext Index dropping nearly 2% and over 4100 stocks declining [22] - Lithium mining and quantum technology sectors showed strong performance, while gaming and coal sectors faced substantial declines [22]

Market Overview - The market experienced weak fluctuations in the early session, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% at one point [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 107.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][2] - Over 3,200 stocks in the market declined, indicating a broad-based downturn [1][2] Sector Performance - Quantum technology stocks collectively rose, with ShenZhou Information achieving two consecutive trading limits and GuoDun Quantum hitting a 20% limit up [1][2] - The battery sector showed strong performance, with ShiDa ShengHua and TianJi shares both hitting trading limits [1][2] - The port and shipping sector was active, with Zhaoshang Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy reaching trading limits [1][2] - The energy storage sector continued its strong trend, with TongRun Equipment achieving two consecutive trading limits [1][2] - Conversely, computing hardware stocks weakened significantly, with TianFu Communication and XinYiSheng experiencing sharp declines [1][2] Index Closing - At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.23% [1][2]

Core Insights - The report highlights that after reaching high levels, both equity and bond markets are experiencing profit-taking pressure, leading to a common stress across both markets [1] - The A-share market has seen a volume contraction with the Wande All A index down by 0.34% and a trading volume of 2.17 trillion yuan, a decrease of 191.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 4000 points for the first time in ten years, reaching a peak of 4010.73 before retreating, contrasting significantly with the previous 4000-point breakthrough in April 2015 [1] Equity Market Analysis - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for small-cap stocks is more moderate compared to 2015, with the current TTM P/E for the CSI 2000 at 60.69, down from 98.87 in April 2015 [2] - The equity risk premium (ERP) is currently at 2.60%, slightly below the historical average, while it was only 0.54% in April 2015 [2] - The degree of leverage in the current bull market is significantly lower than in 2015, with the financing balance accounting for 2.51% of the A-share market's circulating value, compared to 3.87% in April 2015 [3] Market Structure and Trends - The current bull market exhibits more pronounced structural characteristics, with a higher coefficient of variation in industry performance, indicating greater disparity in sector gains [4] - The technology sector has seen substantial gains, while consumer and certain infrastructure sectors have not performed as well, with the top three performing industries since September 2024 being communication equipment, components, and semiconductors, with increases of 191.72%, 189.69%, and 154.61% respectively [4] - The turnover rate for the ChiNext index relative to the Wande All A index is at 144.21%, indicating a more moderate level of crowding compared to 181.94% in April 2015 [4] Bond Market Insights - The bond market reacted positively to the announcement of the resumption of central bank treasury operations, with long-term rates dropping by 4-5 basis points shortly after the announcement [6] - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds increased slightly by 1.8 and 1.3 basis points respectively, indicating a cautious market response [7] - The bond market is experiencing a mixed sentiment, with some institutions opting for profit-taking while others continue to show strong demand for certain bond types [8] Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market is facing a cooling sentiment, particularly in precious metals, which have seen significant declines, with gold and silver down 4.20% and 3.32% respectively [9] - Industrial metals also experienced declines, with copper and aluminum down 1.09% and 0.56% [9] - A significant outflow of funds from the commodity market was noted, with a net withdrawal of 3.773 billion yuan, primarily from the precious metals sector [10]