Summary of Earnings Forecasts and Industry Insights Company: 中际旭创 (Zhongji Xuchuang) - **Earnings Forecast**: The company announced its fiscal year 2025 earnings forecast, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders between 9.8 billion and 11.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 89.5% to 128.17% with a midpoint of 10.8 billion yuan, which is 5% higher than previous estimates of 10.3 billion yuan [1] - **Optical Module Business**: Excluding share-based payment expenses, the net profit from the optical module business is expected to be between 10.8 billion and 13.1 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 90.8% to 131.4% [1] Quarterly Performance - **Q4 2025 Net Profit**: The forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 indicates a net profit between 2.67 billion and 4.67 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 88% to 229% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 15% to 49%, with a midpoint of 3.67 billion yuan, which is 16% higher than previous expectations [2] - **Market Demand**: The robust quarter-on-quarter growth is attributed to the sustained demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules, with the company's leading market position aiding in the acquisition of key components like optical chips despite a tight supply chain [2] - **Technological Advancements**: The accelerated adoption of 1.6T optical modules and the transition to silicon photonics technology are expected to drive continuous quarter-on-quarter growth and margin improvement [2] Industry Insights - **Supply Chain Challenges**: Insights from industry research indicate that suppliers such as COHRUS and Granbo Optoelectronics are facing supply constraints, which may lead to new bottlenecks in the industry, particularly for isolators and core components like Faraday rotators [2] - **Investment Rating**: The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 799 yuan, based on an expected earnings per share of 22.8 yuan for fiscal year 2026, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 35 times, aligning with the median expected P/E ratio for the optical communication sector in China [2] - **Current Valuation**: The stock's expected P/E ratio for fiscal year 2026 is currently 28.5 times [2] Company: 天孚通信 (Tianfu Communication) - **Earnings Forecast**: Tianfu Communication, another optical module supplier targeting the global AI data center market, also released its fiscal year 2025 earnings forecast, estimating a net profit between 9.4 billion and 9.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 231.2% to 248.9%, with a midpoint of 9.65 billion yuan, which is 7% higher than the consensus estimate of 8.99 billion yuan [3] - **Q4 2025 Performance**: The forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 suggests a net profit between 3.07 billion and 3.57 billion yuan, indicating a quarter-on-quarter growth of 28.9% to 49.8% [3] - **Market Sentiment**: The acceleration in profit growth in the fourth quarter following moderate growth in the third quarter may alleviate market concerns regarding weak demand in the optical module market [3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company Overview - **Company**: 中际旭创 (Zhongji Xuchuang, 300308 CH) - **Industry**: Optical Communication Key Points and Arguments 1. **2025 Fiscal Year Performance Forecast**: - Expected revenue growth of 89.5% to 128.17% year-on-year, with a midpoint of 10.8 billion yuan, exceeding previous estimates of 10.3 billion yuan by 5% [1] - Net profit for the optical module business is projected to be between 10.8 billion and 13.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 90.8% to 131.4% [1] 2. **Fourth Quarter Projections**: - Forecasted net profit for Q4 2025 is between 2.67 billion and 4.67 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 88% to 229% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% to 49%, with a midpoint of 3.67 billion yuan [1] - This midpoint represents a 17% quarter-on-quarter growth, surpassing previous expectations for Q4 2025 by 16% [1] 3. **Market Demand and Supply Chain**: - The robust quarter-on-quarter growth is attributed to the rising demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules, with the company's leading market position aiding in the acquisition of critical components like optical chips [2] - The acceleration of 1.6T optical module adoption and the transition to silicon photonics technology are expected to drive continued quarter-on-quarter growth and margin improvement [3] 4. **Industry Bottlenecks**: - Supply constraints from key suppliers such as COHRUS and Granbo Optoelectronics may create new bottlenecks in the industry, particularly for isolators and core components like Faraday rotators [3] 5. **Investment Rating and Target Price**: - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 799 yuan, based on an expected earnings per share of 22.8 yuan for FY 2026, corresponding to a 35x price-to-earnings ratio, aligning with the median expected P/E ratio for the Chinese A/H share optical communication sector [3] 6. **Competitor Performance**: - Another optical module supplier, 天孚通信 (Tianfu Communication, 300502 CH), forecasts a net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion yuan for FY 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 231.2% to 248.9%, with a midpoint of 9.65 billion yuan, exceeding consensus estimates by 7% [3] - Q4 2025 net profit for Tianfu is projected to be between 3.07 billion and 3.57 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 28.9% to 49.8% [3] 7. **Market Sentiment**: - The anticipated acceleration in profitability growth in Q4 2025 may alleviate market concerns regarding weak demand in the optical module market [4]

近期，光模块龙头企业密集发布2025年度业绩预告。 例如，中际旭创股份有限公司（以下简称"中际旭创"）预计2025年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润98 亿元至118亿元，同比增长89.5%至128.17%；成都新易盛通信技术股份有限公司预计2025年净利润同比 增长231.24%至248.86%；苏州天孚光通信股份有限公司预计2025年净利润同比增长40%至60%。 中国银河证券在研报中表示，相关龙头公司业绩普遍超预期，光模块景气度"仍旧处于上升通道中"。 1.6T上量时代开启 "1.6T光模块在2025年第三季度开始正式向重点客户出货，第四季度上量更加迅速，开启了1.6T上量的 时代。"在2月1日披露的投资者关系活动记录表中，中际旭创方面这样描述其最新高端产品的销售进 展。 具体来看，光模块是数据中心内部实现服务器、交换机等设备间高速互联的核心部件，其速率（如 800G、1.6T）决定了每秒能传输多少数据。近年来，800G光模块已成为全球大型云厂商建设AI算力集 群的主流选择，而1.6T光模块正是这条技术路径的下一个里程碑。 中际旭创方面预计，今年1.6T光模块需求规模较去年将出现"较大增长"，公司一季度订 ...

本报记者 王僖 中国银河证券在研报中表示，相关龙头公司业绩普遍超预期，光模块景气度"仍旧处于上升通道中"。 1.6T上量时代开启 "1.6T光模块在2025年第三季度开始正式向重点客户出货，第四季度上量更加迅速，开启了1.6T上量的 时代。"在2月1日披露的投资者关系活动记录表中，中际旭创方面这样描述其最新高端产品的销售进 展。 具体来看，光模块是数据中心内部实现服务器、交换机等设备间高速互联的核心部件，其速率（如 800G、1.6T）决定了每秒能传输多少数据。近年来，800G光模块已成为全球大型云厂商建设AI算力集 群的主流选择，而1.6T光模块正是这条技术路径的下一个里程碑。 中际旭创方面预计，今年1.6T光模块需求规模较去年将出现"较大增长"，公司一季度订单增长迅速，且 有望保持环比增长趋势。对于未来的价格趋势，中际旭创方面认为，随着客户需求规模不断提升，光模 块产品价格年降仍是行业的普遍规律。 中国银河证券分析师表示，今年国内光模块需求侧将从400G向800G、1.6T升级，叠加人工智能应用端 发展带来的算力需求提升，带动光模块需求量能提升；海外端当前景气度较高，主流云厂商今年资本开 支规模持续高预期 ...

证券日报网2月1日讯，中际旭创（300308）在接受调研者提问时表示，公司从2024年开始就已建立硅光 出货能力，2025年800G和1.6T硅光产品的持续上量，进一步验证了公司的硅光能力，获得了客户的信 任，预计800G和1.6T中硅光的占比都将持续提升。硅光在柜内也有较好的应用前景，公司将进一步发 挥硅光技术优势，首选硅光技术来进行产品开发。 ...

四季度部分物料存在供给紧张的情况，主要由于客户需求提升太 快，光芯片等物料的产能供给跟不上需求速度，对公司生产和出货有一 定影响。 三、投资者问答环节 Q1：2025 年四季度的有效税率情况？ 编号：2026-001 | 投资者关 | □特定对象调研 | □分析师会议 | □媒体采访 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 系活动类 | □业绩说明会 | □新闻发布会 | □路演活动 | | 别 | □现场参观 （电话会议） | 其他 ☑ | | | | 易方达基金；工银瑞信基金；大成基金；华泰柏瑞基金；永赢基金；中 | | | | | 欧基金；嘉实基金；华宝基金；泰康基金；安信基金；民生加银基金； | | | | | 海富通基金；中海基金；红土创新基金；南方基金；广发基金；长信基 | | | | | 金；华夏基金；长城基金；信达澳亚基金；中银基金；华安基金；新华 | | | | | 基金；睿远基金；中信保诚基金；西部利得基金；鹏华基金；农银汇理 | | | | | 基金；天治基金；融通基金；万家基金；汇添富基金；银河基金；国泰 | | | | | 基金；诺德基金；国投瑞银基金；中庚基金； ...

2025 年 5 月公司完成了对 ficonTEC 的收购，随着硅光技术的不断发展，为了满足下游市场的需求，本 报告期内 ficonTEC 配合重点客户开发了多项具有广阔发展前景的新技术应用，使得报告期内的设备交 付周期变长，导致实现收入未达预期；同时生产周期拉长，使得设备成本提高。此外，ficonTEC 基于 应对下游产能需求，本期研发投入加大，且由于提升生产规模、服务能力、管理团队等因素，相关费用 亦有所上升。 格隆汇1月29日丨罗博特科(300757.SZ)公布，预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润-9,000万元 ～-6,000万元，同比转亏，扣除非经常性损益后的净利润-13,000万元～-9,000万元。受下游光伏行业阶 段性及结构性供需压力加剧的影响，导致需求乏力，2025年公司光伏业务板块经营持续承压，其营收规 模同比大幅下降，毛利润水平也相应大幅下滑。 ...

格隆汇1月29日丨可川科技(603052.SH)近日接受特定对象调研时表示，苏州可川电子科技股份有限公司 之全资子公司可川光子技术(苏州)有限公司(以下简称"可川光子")成立于2024年2月，组建了资深的研发 及制造管理团队，掌握核心自研设计算法，致力于高速硅光芯片设计和高速光模块的研发、生产。具备 了从硅光芯片设计、硅光晶圆检测、芯片检测、COB、模块组装到后段模块检测和测试的全链条量产 能力，同时硅光芯片已完成首次流片。目前可川光子正在积极地进行市场开拓工作。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant progress of Shanghai Xihe Technology Co., Ltd. in the silicon photonics sector, marking its initiation of the A-share IPO process, which positions it as a key player in the domestic silicon photonics market amid a global AI computing power race and surging demand for high-speed optical communication [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shanghai Xihe Technology was established in May 2021 with a registered capital of 97.64 million yuan, and its core team includes experts from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and overseas technology sectors [2][5]. - The company has achieved recognition as a national-level "specialized and innovative" small giant enterprise by 2025, reflecting its strong competitive edge in niche markets [2][5]. - The company’s major shareholder, Shanghai Xijing Management Consulting Partnership, holds 37.24% of the shares, while the chairman, Wu Aimin, controls 48.23% of the voting rights, ensuring a stable governance structure [2]. Group 2: Product and Technology Development - Xihe Technology focuses on silicon photonics technology, offering a full-service capability that spans design, manufacturing, and testing, with a focus on high-speed interconnects, intelligent sensing, and consumer applications [4]. - The company has launched a series of high-speed silicon photonic integrated chips, including 400G, 800G, and 1.6T products, which have been successfully delivered in millions, validating its commercial technology capabilities [4][5]. - Xihe Technology is advancing the development of 3.2T high-speed silicon photonic chips and is expanding its product matrix to include applications in autonomous driving and smart industrial sectors [4]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The global silicon photonics market is experiencing a boom, with the penetration rate of 800G optical modules exceeding 30% by 2025, and demand for 1.6T and above products rapidly increasing [5]. - Xihe Technology is well-positioned to benefit from the high growth cycle in the industry, leveraging its established delivery capabilities and cutting-edge technology to break the overseas monopoly in the domestic market [5].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies in the optical communication sector, specifically highlighting the "Four Little Dragons 3.0" [10]. Core Insights - The investment logic in optical communication is shifting from leading companies to high-resilience, high-barrier, or core-positioned quality targets as the global AI computing competition intensifies [1][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with clear technological positioning and performance delivery capabilities in the emerging "Four Little Dragons 3.0" [1][19]. Summary by Sections Historical Perspective: Growth Logic of "Four Little Dragons" - In 2019, the report recommended the first generation of "Four Little Dragons" including Taicheng Light, New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, and Quartz Co. [2][20]. - By the end of 2024, the second generation included Taicheng Light, Dekeli, Yuanjie Technology, and Tengjing Technology, benefiting from AIDC construction and optical module iteration [2][20]. Future Outlook: Rise of "Four Little Dragons 3.0" - The report suggests focusing on the new generation of "Four Little Dragons 3.0": Dongtianwei, Kecuan Technology, Huilv Ecology, and Zhishang Technology, as silicon photonics technology penetration increases [3][21]. - Dongtianwei is positioned in the upstream core components of optical communication, with a complete product matrix and proactive capacity expansion [21]. - Kecuan Technology benefits from the continuous penetration of silicon photonics, having launched its first 400G/800G high-speed optical module production line [21]. - Zhishang Technology is expected to benefit from the implementation of CPO, producing high-density optical connection solutions [22]. - Huilv Ecology is expanding into the high-speed optical module sector through acquisitions, establishing a comprehensive product matrix from 10G to 1.6T [24]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies in the optical communication sector such as Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, Taicheng Light, and Tengjing Technology, among others [8][13]. - It also highlights the importance of companies involved in copper links, computing equipment, liquid cooling, edge computing platforms, and satellite communication [8][13]. Market Performance - The communication sector has shown strong performance, with the optical communication index rising by 2.6% and the IoT sector outperforming with a 4.8% increase [16][18].