Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Chairman Wu Qing announced significant reforms at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, focusing on enhancing capital market functions and promoting the integration of technological and industrial innovation [1][3]. Group 1: Capital Market Reforms - The CSRC will restart the fifth listing standard for unprofitable companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) and officially implement the third standard on the ChiNext board to support high-quality unprofitable innovative enterprises [1][5]. - The fifth listing standard emphasizes that companies do not need to meet revenue or net profit requirements but must have approved core products and significant market potential [2][4]. - As of now, 20 companies have successfully listed on the STAR Market under the fifth standard, raising a total of 42.871 billion yuan, with these companies achieving a combined revenue of 14.338 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.45% [2]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The "1+6" policy measures include establishing a Sci-Tech Growth Layer on the STAR Market and expanding the fifth standard's applicability to more sectors, including artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace [4]. - Six specific reform measures will be introduced, such as trialing a pre-IPO review mechanism for quality tech companies and enhancing the refinancing system for STAR Market companies [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following Wu Qing's speech, the STAR Market saw a notable increase, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising by 0.53% on June 18 [6]. - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), there are still opportunities for capital allocation and valuation improvement in the sci-tech sector, with the potential for overseas capital to return to China's stock market [7]. - CICC highlighted that the current valuations of sci-tech companies remain attractive, with the forward P/E ratios for the ChiNext Index and Sci-Tech 50 Index at 21.6x and 50.7x, respectively [7].

Group 1: Leadership Changes - Wang Sheng has been appointed as the new General Manager of Shenwan Hongyuan Research, succeeding Zhou Haichen, who will continue to oversee research and institutional business [1][3] - Wang Sheng has over 16 years of experience at Shenwan Hongyuan, having started as an analyst in the construction sector and has held multiple roles including Chief Strategy Analyst [2][3] - Zhou Haichen, the former General Manager, has been promoted to a position on the Executive Committee of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, indicating a shift in leadership dynamics [1][3] Group 2: Research Expansion and Strategy - Despite challenges in the sell-side research sector, Shenwan Hongyuan Research has expanded its team, bringing in several leading figures in the industry [1][5] - The firm has a history of innovative practices, including the establishment of a point system and a senior analyst growth mechanism, which have evolved over nearly 20 years [6] - Wang Sheng emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach in research management, focusing on enhancing the "research product" concept to better meet client needs [7] Group 3: Market Outlook and Research Focus - Wang Sheng believes that the Chinese capital market is poised for a long-term bull market, driven by the rise of technology companies and advancements in artificial intelligence [4][5] - The research institute aims to integrate artificial intelligence into its operations, focusing on data systems and algorithmic improvements to enhance research methodologies [8] - The emphasis will be on developing a more agile and responsive research framework that aligns with the high demands of the financial investment landscape [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese capital market is expected to enter a long bull market, driven by improved ROE returns and the increasing influence of leading brands, even if GDP growth slows to a medium-high rate [3][4]. - Wang Sheng has been appointed as the new General Manager of Shenwan Hongyuan Research, succeeding Zhou Haichen, and aims to explore a more flexible and agile organizational structure to empower analysts [1][5]. - The research institute will focus on intelligent investment research, leveraging big data, algorithms, and computing power to enhance its research methodologies and frameworks [6]. Group 2 - The Chinese capital market is characterized by a well-designed top-level structure, improved corporate governance, and a rising awareness of shareholder returns, with dividends and buybacks exceeding financing for three consecutive years [3][4]. - The emergence of Chinese technology companies, such as Huawei and ByteDance, is creating a unique opportunity for growth in the new economy sector, coinciding with the global advancement of artificial intelligence [4]. - Wang Sheng emphasizes the importance of stable teams, solid research styles, and systematic frameworks in building client trust within the sell-side research sector [5].

Group 1 - A-shares in May showed a fluctuating market with over 5000 stocks averaging a gain higher than April, with themes like gold, yellow wine, innovative drugs, controllable nuclear fusion, aerospace military industry, and digital currency rising rapidly [1][2] - The semiconductor, robotics, and software development sectors underperformed the market, indicating a divergence in sector performance [1][2] - The average increase of stocks in May was 5.28%, with the median increase at 3.5%, contrasting with April's average decrease of -2.12% [2] Group 2 - The ST or *ST stocks saw an average increase of 14% in May, with 59 stocks rising over 20%, reflecting a shift in market focus towards speculative trading during the earnings vacuum period [3] - New consumption trends are emerging, focusing on smart consumption and personalized products, with significant interest in sectors like beauty care and gold jewelry, which outperformed major indices [4][5] - The gold jewelry sector index rose by 9.53% in May, with individual stocks like Mankalon and Chaohongji seeing increases over 43% [5][6] Group 3 - The robotics sector has faced a downturn, with the Wind Robotics Index declining after reaching a historical high in February, and many stocks in this sector have retraced significantly [6] - Institutions anticipate that June will favor large-cap stocks, with a balanced approach to growth and value, particularly in consumer services and growth sectors [7][8] - The market outlook for June suggests a focus on domestic development stages, with an emphasis on new consumption and potential policy support for economic stability [7][8]

Group 1 - The central government aims to establish a modern enterprise system suitable for China's conditions within approximately five years, emphasizing the integrity obligations of controlling shareholders and encouraging the introduction of institutional investors with over 5% shareholding as active shareholders in listed companies [1] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) previously proposed incorporating market value management into the performance assessment of central enterprise leaders, leading to a significant increase in the market value of state-owned enterprises [1] - Central enterprises are crucial in key industries such as finance, electronics, biomedicine, power equipment, national defense, and public utilities, and their performance is closely correlated with major stock indices [1] Group 2 - The "Kotevaluation" concept focuses on strategic emerging industries and advanced technologies that can transform into future industries, emphasizing high innovation, low valuation, and international competitiveness, particularly in critical areas like semiconductors and biotechnology [2] - China National Chemical Equipment Corporation focuses on chemical equipment and rubber machinery as a central enterprise [3] - CITIC Heavy Industries is a leading company in mining machinery and is developing special robots as a second growth curve [4]

Macro Strategy - The recent reduction of tariffs between China and the US, from a maximum of 145% to 30%, is expected to lower export uncertainties and may lead to a comprehensive trade framework agreement by the end of the year [1][9][10] - The US has made significant concessions in the negotiations, driven by increasing domestic political and economic pressures, particularly ahead of the midterm elections [1][9] - The trade conflict continues to create high uncertainty in economic data, with the US trade deficit increasing by 14% in March and consumer goods imports reaching a historical high [1][9] Industry Insights - The shift in local state-owned enterprises' bond financing from infrastructure and real estate to technology innovation indicates a growing focus on the tech sector [4][13] - The issuance of bonds for equity or fund investments by local state-owned enterprises has increased by 31.41%, while investments in infrastructure or real estate have decreased by 47.85% [4][13] - The technology sector is becoming a key driver of economic growth, with the digital economy's core industries expected to account for about 10% of GDP by the end of 2024 [10][11] Company Recommendations - Aerospace Hongtu (688066) has seen a downward revision in EPS forecasts for 2025-2026 due to demand-side impacts, but is expected to recover as downstream customer orders improve, maintaining a "buy" rating [7] - Shengye (06069.HK) is poised for accelerated new business development following a strategic placement, with a focus on supply chain finance and fintech services, also maintaining a "buy" rating [8]

Macro Strategy - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with the highest tariffs dropping from 145% to 30% before May 14, 2025, and a complete cancellation of 91% of retaliatory tariffs, reducing export uncertainties [1][9][10] - The negotiations are driven by increasing political and economic pressures in the US, with a framework agreement expected to be reached within the year, particularly as the midterm elections approach [1][9][10] - The trade conflict has resulted in a 14% month-on-month increase in the US trade deficit for March, with consumer goods imports hitting a record high, indicating a pressing need for tariff reductions from the US side [1][9][10] Industry Insights - The report highlights a shift in local state-owned enterprises' bond financing from infrastructure and real estate projects to technology innovation, with a 31.41% increase in bonds issued for equity or fund investments and a 47.85% decrease for infrastructure or real estate investments in the first four months of 2025 [4][13] - The technology sector is becoming a key driver of economic growth, with the digital economy's core industries expected to contribute around 10% to GDP by the end of 2024, reflecting a significant increase in China's global market share in high-tech manufacturing [11][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of building a robust technological infrastructure to enhance competitiveness and drive domestic demand, particularly in the context of global trade uncertainties [11][13] Company Recommendations - Hai Tian Wei Ye (603288) is projected to maintain steady growth with revenue expectations of 29.7 billion, 32.8 billion, and 36.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [8] - Zhejiang Dingli (603338) is expected to see a net profit of 2.1 billion, 2.4 billion, and 2.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a current market valuation corresponding to a PE ratio of 12, 10, and 9 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [8] - UBTECH (09880.HK) has signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement with Huawei, which is anticipated to accelerate the application of humanoid robots in real-world scenarios, with revenue forecasts of 2.016 billion, 2.823 billion, and 3.705 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [8]

Macro Strategy - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with the highest tariffs dropping from 145% to 30% before May 14, and a complete cancellation of 91% of retaliatory tariffs, reducing export uncertainties [1][12] - The progress in trade talks is attributed to increasing political and economic pressures within the US, with expectations for a comprehensive trade framework agreement to be reached within the year [1][12] - The US's demand for tariff reductions is more urgent compared to China's, as evidenced by a 14% month-on-month increase in the US trade deficit in March and record-high consumer goods imports [1][12] Industry Insights - The report highlights a shift in local state-owned enterprises' bond financing from infrastructure and real estate projects to technology innovation, with a 31.41% increase in bond issuance for equity or fund investments and a 47.85% decrease for infrastructure or real estate projects [4][17] - The technology sector is becoming a focal point for investment, with local state-owned enterprises increasingly directing funds towards innovation and technology projects, indicating a broader trend of "export to domestic sales" as domestic products gain market share due to tariff impacts [4][17] - The report emphasizes the growing importance of technology-driven sectors in China's economy, with digital economy core industries expected to contribute around 10% to GDP by the end of 2024, reflecting a significant increase in the share of technology in economic growth [1][15] Company Highlights - JingTai Holdings is identified as a key player in the AI for Science sector, with a strong research team and significant revenue growth, achieving 266 million RMB in 2024, a 53% increase year-on-year [9] - The company has made substantial progress in its drug development pipeline, including a collaboration with SigGen Bio for a dual-target inhibitor now in clinical trials, showcasing its innovative capabilities in the pharmaceutical sector [9] - BoRui Pharmaceutical is also highlighted for its strategic fundraising efforts, with a total of 500 million RMB raised through a directed issuance, and promising clinical trial results for its weight loss drug BGM0504, which shows superior efficacy compared to competitors [10][11]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20250512 新动能驱动"科特估"为资本市场"排头兵" [Table_Summary] ◼ 新旧动能转换下，内需扩张迫在眉睫： 关税战是一场遭遇战、持久战，全球需求承压："遭遇战"之下，各国 的应对方式和手段在贸易战后期的很长一段时间内都将影响各自经济 增长的实际走向。中美的"大国之争"在美国内在经济问题和全球经济 增长问题暂未得到明显缓解之前仍将持续，"关税战"可能将是一场"持 久战"，作为以打促谈的手段，关税的议题可能将贯穿较长的时间周期。 关税战不仅是短期的贸易摩擦，更对全球经济结构造成深远影响，进一 步抑制全球投资与消费需求。 科技产业经济占比提升，经济新动能打开内需新市场：截至 2024 年底， 数字经济核心产业增加值占国内生产总值比重 10%左右。2022 年，中 国的 KTI 制造业产出比 2012 年翻了一倍多，全球份额从 2012 年的 22% 增至 2022 年的 34%。数字经济技术应用和数字产品制造是引领当前经 济发展的主要方向，也是激发内需潜力、驱动产业创新、塑造发展新优 势的主要抓手，而科技相关服务业目前占比相对低，与海外主流 ...

Core Viewpoints - The necessity to enhance domestic demand policies to counteract the potential impacts of slowing external demand, thereby solidifying the recovery of domestic demand since the first quarter [1][4] - The market consensus on a clear mainline for policy response is still awaited, indicating that the timing for a more aggressive market approach is not yet ripe [1][7] Economic Performance - China's GDP growth in the first quarter exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [2][4] - Retail sales grew by 4.6%, and fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.2% [2] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.3%, and per capita disposable income rose to 12,179 yuan, reflecting a nominal increase of 5.5% [2] Trade and External Factors - The trade surplus contributed 2.2 percentage points to the nominal GDP growth in the first quarter, up from 1.9 percentage points in the previous quarter [4] - A decline in container bookings to the U.S. by 67% in the first week of April indicates potential headwinds for exports in the second quarter [4] Investment Strategies - Recommendations to maintain a defensive investment strategy in light of ongoing global uncertainties, with a focus on safe assets such as gold and government bonds [5][21] - Emphasis on sectors benefiting from domestic demand and those that have been undervalued due to market sentiment, particularly in the context of "China Special Valuation" and "Science and Technology Valuation" [6][10] Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile, with a need for further observation of policy impacts before a clear bullish trend can be established [7][19] - The potential for a gradual decrease in funding rates as macroeconomic stimulus measures are anticipated to be implemented [17]