证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 ETF 周报 上周军工、芯片主题领涨，股票型 ETF 规模突破 39800 亿 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2026 年 01 月 05 日至 2026 年 01 月 09 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 4.31%。宽基 ETF 中，科创板 ETF 涨跌幅中位数 为 10.15%，收益最高。按板块划分，科技 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 7.28%， 收益最高。按主题进行分类，军工 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 13.50%，收益 最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 8.03 亿元，总体规模增加 1801.14 亿元。在宽 基 ETF 中，上周中证 500ETF 净申购最多，为 36.48 亿元；按板块来看， 周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 135.24 亿元；按热点主题来看，医药 ETF 净 申购最多，为 8.92 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板 块来看，大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看， 酒、新能车 ETF 的估 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者胡金华 上海报道 2025年末，债券市场掀起了新一轮的发行高潮。 12月以来，国内信用债ETF规模增加了超900亿元，达到5900多亿元，其中科创债ETF贡献了主要增 量。根据Wind数据最新统计，目前35只信用债ETF总规模5908亿元。此外，公募排排网数据显示，截至 2025年12月21日，按认购起始日统计，年内全市场共计发行ETF产品351只，发行份额高达2554.55亿 份，这一数据不仅创下历史新高，更一举超越此前两年的发行总和，展现出ETF市场的强劲发展势头。 "在政策支持与审批流程提速、指数化投资理念普及等多重因素推动下，叠加市场回暖带来的赚钱效 应，2025年ETF市场迎来发行规模与产品数量的双重增长。ETF产品凭借费率低廉、分散风险、交易便 捷、透明度高等优势，持续吸引机构与个人投资者资金共振入市。与此同时，产品线不断向细分赛道及 跨境、债券等多元化方向拓展，更好地适配不同投资者的资产配置需求。长期资金的持续增配，进一步 强化了头部ETF的流动性与规模优势，形成'强者恒强'的马太效应，并吸引更多跟风资金入场，由此形 成规模增长与流动性提升的正向循环 ...

Core Insights - The ETF market has experienced significant growth in 2025, with a total of 351 new ETF products issued, reaching an issuance volume of 2,554.55 billion units, surpassing the total issuance of the previous two years [1] - Equity ETFs dominate the market, with 312 equity-type ETFs issued, accounting for 88.89% of the total number and 62.71% of the total issuance volume [1] - Bond ETFs also saw a record year in 2025, with 32 new products issued and a total issuance volume of 914.83 billion units, exceeding historical totals [1] Market Dynamics - The growth in ETF issuance is driven by policy support, expedited approval processes, and the increasing popularity of index investing, alongside a market recovery that has created a profit incentive [2] - ETFs are attracting both institutional and individual investors due to their low fees, risk diversification, ease of trading, and high transparency [2] - The product line is diversifying into niche sectors, cross-border investments, and bonds, catering to various asset allocation needs of different investors [2] Sector Trends - Technology-themed ETFs have become the most sought-after products in 2025, with 47 new ETFs issued that include "technology" in their names, representing 13.39% of total issuance and 26.04% of total issuance volume [2] - The growth of technology ETFs is supported by favorable policies and clear industry trends, particularly in AI, semiconductors, and computing power, enhancing the certainty of industry growth [3] Issuer Landscape - In 2025, 47 public fund institutions participated in ETF issuance, with 31 institutions issuing at least 2 products and 15 institutions issuing over 10 products [3] - E Fund ranked first with 31 products and an issuance volume of 172.41 billion units, followed by China Universal with 26 products and 160.12 billion units, and Penghua Fund with 25 products and 135.27 billion units [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral market position for hedge funds, with a high leverage level and significant risk exposure [1][2]. Core Insights - In 2025, only 28% of U.S. mutual funds outperformed their benchmarks, leading to a historical low cash holding of 1.2% as funds chase market returns [1][2]. - Hedge funds maintain a neutral market position but exhibit high leverage, indicating substantial risk exposure [1][2]. - Both hedge funds and mutual funds are underweight in the technology sector due to its high index weight, while the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks (excluding Tesla) remain favored by hedge funds [1][2]. - Mutual funds have overweighted the utility sector for the first time, while both fund types are overweight in industrials, benefiting from the AI infrastructure boom [1][2]. - The healthcare sector is favored as a defensive play and an AI hedge, with its valuation discount at historical highs attracting both mutual and hedge funds [1][2][7]. Summary by Sections Fund Positioning - In 2025, mutual funds have reduced cash positions to 1.2%, reflecting a trend to keep pace with strong stock market performance [2]. - Hedge funds are cautious in the consumer discretionary sector, particularly in travel and leisure, indicating recession risks [3][13]. Sector Allocation - The technology sector is the most sold-off by hedge funds, with funds shifting towards healthcare, which has seen strong performance this year [9][10]. - The healthcare sector is viewed as a defensive industry and has a negative correlation with the Nasdaq index, making it attractive during uncertain economic conditions [6][7]. Investment Strategies - Hedge funds are employing macro products to hedge beta risk and are focusing on short-selling opportunities to enhance returns [5][8]. - Mutual funds are advised to manage liquidity carefully and diversify risk, while hedge funds should monitor macroeconomic changes and adjust positions flexibly [8]. Future Outlook - The healthcare sector's valuation remains attractive despite recent gains, with potential growth driven by fundamental factors [11]. - Consumer discretionary sectors may present opportunities if fiscal stimulus leads to increased consumer spending [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of various ETFs and sectors in the market, highlighting significant movements in the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors, as well as the overall market trends as of November 25, 2025 [5][6]. Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors on November 25, 2025, included Media (+3.54%), Communication (+2.42%), and Non-ferrous Metals (+2.85%), while sectors like Transportation (-0.11%) and Defense (-0.32%) saw declines [3]. - The net inflow of capital was highest in the Communication sector with 38.30 billion, followed by Electric Equipment (37.85 billion) and Electronics (36.77 billion). Conversely, the Defense sector experienced the largest outflow at -28.88 billion [3]. ETF Highlights - The "Entrepreneurship AI ETF" (159363) saw a strong performance with a daily increase of 3.45%, recovering key moving averages and achieving a trading volume of 8.73 billion [5][6]. - The "Hong Kong Chip ETF" (159131) recorded a significant price increase of nearly 4% during the day, closing with a 1.10% gain, marking a record trading volume of 1.36 billion since its launch [6]. Investment Insights - Fund managers indicated that the U.S. stock market is showing signs of a significant rebound, suggesting that the main downtrend may have ended, making technology ETFs attractive for investment [6]. - The article emphasizes the valuation advantages of Hong Kong chip stocks, with a PE ratio percentile of around 38%, significantly lower than that of the ChiNext Index (83%) and Nasdaq 100 (67%) [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among brokerage strategy analysts indicates a rebound in the market, as multiple factors that led to last week's stock index adjustments have improved over the weekend [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market's perception of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts has shifted significantly, with the probability of a rate cut in December rising from 30% to 71%, alleviating global risk aversion [1] - The expectation of liquidity improvement and the ongoing iteration of global AI applications are likely to ease concerns regarding an "AI bubble" [2] - The internal logic supporting the rise of Chinese assets remains strong, driven by enhanced national competitiveness, the release of new economic momentum, clear policy transformation, and stable economic fundamentals [2][3] Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors that are expected to outperform in the coming year, particularly those benefiting from high growth forecasts, such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and structural recovery in domestic demand [3] - The approval of 16 technology ETFs, including those focused on AI, is expected to guide capital towards high-quality technology companies in the A-share market, providing a positive regulatory signal [2][3] - The technology sector's recent adjustments are attributed to the influence of U.S. AI leaders and year-end institutional fund strategies, but the overall tech market is expected to continue its upward trajectory post-correction [2][4] Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - The current market adjustments are viewed as short-term disturbances that do not alter the underlying bull market logic, with expectations of continued capital inflow and improved earnings across sectors [3][4] - The potential for a significant reversal in the fundamentals of the AI industry in the U.S. is considered low, which should provide substantial valuation growth opportunities for comparable companies in China [4] - The overall sentiment indicates that the market is not lacking in liquidity, and the concerns regarding long-tail risks in the Chinese economy are gradually easing [3][4]

Core Insights - The technology sector is experiencing a downturn, with the first domestic technology ETF (515000) declining by 1% and showing a continuous pullback for five days from its historical peak [1][2] - The ETF has seen a trading volume exceeding 800 million yuan, indicating potential capital intervention despite the recent price drop [1] - Key stocks within the technology sector, such as Jingwang Electronics, WuXi AppTec, and Zhongwei Company, have shown strong performance, while others like Deepin Technology and Zhaoyi Innovation have underperformed [2][3] Industry Trends - The Chinese government is accelerating the layout of the quantum information industry, with expectations for the market size to exceed 800 billion USD by 2035 [3] - Companies like Zhongke Shuguang are making breakthroughs in quantum computing, while firms such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng are benefiting from the surge in global AI computing demand [3] - The technology sector is characterized by a "high before low" trend influenced by favorable expectations, with the recent US-China summit not addressing critical issues affecting the sector [3] Investment Opportunities - The technology ETF (515000) tracks the CSI Technology Leaders Index, which includes 50 high-cap, high-market-share, and high-growth companies from various technology fields [4] - The ETF offers a more balanced risk-return profile compared to other single technology sector investments, making it an attractive option for investors [4] - The ongoing AI arms race and the push for technological self-sufficiency are expected to sustain interest in AI-related sectors, including robotics and internet leaders [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week (from October 20 to October 24, 2025), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 3.45%. Among broad-based ETFs, the median return of ChiNext ETFs was 8.06%, the highest. By sector, the median return of technology ETFs was 6.60%, the highest. By theme, the median return of AI ETFs was 10.92%, the highest [1][13]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 29.513 billion yuan, but the overall scale increased by 109.578 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the Shanghai 50 ETF had the highest net subscription of 884 million yuan; by sector, consumer ETFs had the highest net subscription of 581 million yuan; by hot theme, securities ETFs had the highest net subscription of 1.426 billion yuan [2]. - As of last Friday, among broad-based ETFs, ChiNext ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles; by sector, consumer and large financial ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles; by sub - theme, wine and photovoltaic ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of A500 and large financial ETFs increased significantly [3]. - From Monday to Thursday last week, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 46.442 billion yuan in the previous week to 46.670 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume increased from 2.461 billion shares in the previous week to 2.546 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases and short - selling volumes, science and technology innovation board ETFs and chip ETFs had relatively high average daily margin trading purchases, while CSI 1000 ETFs and CSI 300 ETFs had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [4]. - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai - Peregrine ranked top three in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs. This week, 6 ETFs such as Penghua Hang Seng Technology ETF, E Fund CSI Satellite Industry ETF, and Boshi Industrial Software ETF will be issued [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs last week was 3.45%. The median returns of different broad - based ETFs were: ChiNext ETFs 8.06%, science and technology innovation board ETFs 6.23%, A500 ETFs 3.65%, CSI 500 ETFs 3.49%, CSI 300 ETFs 3.33%, CSI 1000 ETFs 3.28%, and Shanghai 50 ETFs 2.80%. The median returns of cross - border, bond, money, and commodity ETFs were 2.90%, 0.12%, 0.01%, and - 6.19% respectively [13]. - By sector, the median returns of technology, cyclical, large financial, and consumer sector ETFs were 6.60%, 2.76%, 1.70%, and 0.50% respectively. By hot theme, the median returns of AI, chip, and robot ETFs were 10.92%, 8.33%, and 4.82% respectively, showing relatively strong performance, while the median returns of wine, medicine, and dividend ETFs were - 2.17%, 0.60%, and 1.14% respectively, showing relatively weak performance [16]. ETF Scale Change and Net Subscription/Redeem - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross - border, and bond ETFs were 3,675.5 billion yuan, 916.8 billion yuan, and 575.8 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity and money ETFs were relatively small, at 225.4 billion yuan and 167.9 billion yuan respectively. Among broad - based ETFs, the CSI 300 ETF and science and technology innovation board ETF had relatively large scales, while the A500, Shanghai 50, ChiNext, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively small scales [18][21]. - By sector, as of last Friday, the scale of technology sector ETFs was 421.7 billion yuan, followed by cyclical sector ETFs at 224 billion yuan. The scales of large financial and consumer ETFs were relatively small, at 206.1 billion yuan and 182.2 billion yuan respectively. By hot theme, as of last Friday, the scales of chip, securities, and medicine ETFs were the highest, at 161.8 billion yuan, 139.7 billion yuan, and 99.2 billion yuan respectively [25]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 29.513 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 109.578 billion yuan; money ETFs had a net subscription of 1.3895 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 1.3909 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the Shanghai 50 ETF had the highest net subscription of 884 million yuan, and its scale increased by 6.116 billion yuan; the ChiNext ETF had the highest net redemption of 6.832 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 7.146 billion yuan. By sector, consumer ETFs had the highest net subscription of 581 million yuan, and their scale increased by 358 million yuan; technology ETFs had the highest net redemption of 7.084 billion yuan, and their scale increased by 22.091 billion yuan. By hot theme, securities ETFs had the highest net subscription of 1.426 billion yuan, and their scale increased by 4.062 billion yuan; chip ETFs had the highest net redemption of 3.047 billion yuan, and their scale increased by 9.108 billion yuan [28][33]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the 90.35%, 88.62%, 99.01%, 96.04%, 63.07%, and 99.70% quantile levels respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 75.60%, 71.81%, 99.26%, 64.06%, 57.71%, and 99.70% quantile levels respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the current price - to - earnings and price - to - book ratios of science and technology innovation board ETFs are at the 98.43% and 71.81% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the A500 ETF increased significantly [36][37]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of cyclical, large financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 71.56%, 50.12%, 29.76%, and 99.42% quantile levels respectively, and their price - to - book ratios were at the 79.88%, 67.68%, 36.60%, and 94.06% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of large financial ETFs increased significantly [39]. ETF Margin Trading - Overall, the short - selling volume of equity ETFs has been on an upward trend in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 46.442 billion yuan in the previous week to 46.670 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume increased from 2.461 billion shares in the previous week to 2.546 billion shares [48]. - From Monday to Thursday last week, among the top 10 equity ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases, science and technology innovation board ETFs and chip ETFs had relatively high average daily margin trading purchases. Among the top 10 equity ETFs with the highest average daily short - selling volumes, CSI 1000 ETFs and CSI 300 ETFs had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [51][56]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs and had a relatively high management scale in multiple sub - fields such as scale index ETFs, theme, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs. E Fund ranked second in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross - border ETFs. Huatai - Peregrine Fund ranked third in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and theme, style, and strategy index ETFs [60]. - Last week, 10 new ETFs were established. This week, 6 ETFs such as Penghua Hang Seng Technology ETF, E Fund CSI Satellite Industry ETF, and Boshi Industrial Software ETF will be issued [63].

Core Insights - Fund managers have shown a lack of interest in consumer stocks this year, leading to poor performance of consumer-themed funds, but there has been a sudden increase in fundraising for these funds in Q4 as institutional investors anticipate a decline in risk appetite and recognize the importance of domestic demand for stable growth [1][2] Group 1: Consumer Fund Performance - The recent surge in interest for consumer-themed funds marks a significant shift from earlier this year when these funds struggled to attract investment [2] - The Huazhang Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF is set to launch on October 22, with a fundraising target of 6.39 billion yuan, indicating a turning point for consumer-themed funds [2][3] - Some consumer ETFs have recently experienced unusual premium pricing in the secondary market, suggesting renewed investor interest [3] Group 2: Technology Fund Adjustments - Many technology funds have seen significant declines in net value, prompting a shift towards defensive strategies, with some funds reallocating to consumer sectors [4][5] - A notable example includes a fund that transitioned from high-growth technology stocks to consumer sectors, reflecting a broader trend among fund managers to seek stability amid market volatility [5] Group 3: Market Outlook and Domestic Demand - Fund managers are increasingly considering domestic demand as a potential area for investment, especially in light of uncertainties in the global economy and potential pressures on exports [6][7] - The expectation of a rebound in earnings growth for many industries in Q3 is anticipated to bolster market confidence, with sectors like basic chemicals benefiting from emerging consumer demand [7]

Core Insights - The article reflects on the current volatile market and the importance of understanding personal risk tolerance and investment strategies. It emphasizes the need for a disciplined approach to investing, particularly for individual investors who may be influenced by market noise and trends [1][3]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests that individual investors should prioritize capital preservation and manage their portfolios according to their risk tolerance. It recommends allocating funds to safer investments like bonds for those who cannot accept any loss, while a portion can be allocated to higher-risk investments [5]. - The risk-return spectrum is outlined, indicating that higher potential returns come with increased risks. The hierarchy of investment risk is presented, ranging from bank deposits to venture capital investments [5]. Market Trends - The article identifies a significant trend in the technology sector, particularly in areas related to AI, computing power, and robotics. It suggests that these sectors will continue to thrive as long as the AI performance bubble remains intact [9]. - It highlights the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends, particularly the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on liquidity and market conditions. The expectation is that global liquidity will improve over the next few years, creating favorable conditions for investment [7][9]. Investment Approach - The article stresses the importance of patience and a long-term perspective in investing. It suggests that capital markets will eventually reflect economic fundamentals, and investors should avoid panic during market fluctuations [11]. - It encourages investors to conduct thorough research and maintain a clear investment logic to avoid falling into traps during rapid market changes. The need for continuous observation of market trends and fundamentals is emphasized [9][11].