美国国债收益率

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美国10年期国债收益率短线上扬大约1个基点,逼近4.29%,使得日内整体跌幅在美联储会议纪要发布后收窄至不足2.0个基点。两年
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 18:30
Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose approximately 1 basis point, nearing 4.29%, with the overall intraday decline narrowing to less than 2.0 basis points after the Federal Reserve meeting minutes were released [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rebounded from below 3.73% to above 3.74%, with the overall intraday decline narrowing to less than 0.9 basis points [1] - The 2/10 year Treasury yield spread fell back below +54 basis points [1] Group 2 - Following the release of the meeting minutes, the S&P 500 index dropped over 0.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average turned negative, and the Nasdaq fell over 1% [1]
黑天鹅!美联储突发!特朗普 终于动手了!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-08-20 15:26
Group 1 - Trump is considering firing a Federal Reserve official, Lisa Cook, due to allegations of mortgage fraud related to her housing applications [2][3] - Allegations state that Cook submitted fraudulent information on two mortgage applications for properties in Michigan and Georgia, claiming both as her primary residence [3][4] - The accusations have led to a weakening of the dollar, a narrowing of U.S. Treasury yields, and an increase in gold prices [5] Group 2 - The incident marks an escalation in the White House's attacks on the Federal Reserve, with FHFA Director Bill Pulte becoming a prominent critic of Fed Chair Jerome Powell [8] - Cook, nominated by Biden in 2022, has aligned her voting stance with Powell and the majority of the FOMC during her tenure [8] - Recent criticisms from Trump and his appointees come as the market anticipates potential interest rate cuts from the Fed in the upcoming meetings [8][9]
新预测拉响警报:美国赤字危机愈演愈烈,特朗普政策是主因
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-08-20 08:26
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. federal budget deficit is projected to be nearly $1 trillion higher over the next decade than previously estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) due to tax and spending legislation and tariff policies [1] - The cumulative deficit from FY 2026 to FY 2035 is expected to reach $22.7 trillion, compared to the CBO's earlier estimate of $21.8 trillion [1] - The CBO will not release a mid-year budget update this year, instead opting to publish the next 10-year budget and economic outlook in early 2026 [1] Group 2 - The CRFB estimates that the "Big and Beautiful" legislation will increase the deficit by $4.6 trillion over the next decade, but this will be largely offset by $3.4 trillion in new tariff revenue from Trump's current tariff policies [2] - New regulations limiting Medicare subsidy eligibility are expected to reduce the deficit by an additional $100 billion by 2035, along with a potential $100 billion savings from the cancellation of funding for foreign aid and public broadcasting [2] - Net interest payments on U.S. debt are projected to total $14 trillion over the next decade, rising from nearly $1 trillion in 2025 (3.2% of GDP) to $1.8 trillion by 2035 (4.1% of GDP) [2] Group 3 - In a more pessimistic scenario, if the Court of International Trade upholds Trump's new tariffs, the expected tariff revenue could decrease by $2.4 trillion over the next decade [2] - The extension of temporary tax cuts in the "Big and Beautiful" legislation could increase the deficit by $1.7 trillion over ten years [3] - The CRFB warns that the debt-to-GDP ratio by 2035 could rise to 120% in the baseline scenario and 134% in a negative scenario, compared to the CBO's earlier estimate of 118% [3]
分析师:若鲍威尔暗示降息节奏放缓 美债收益率或进一步攀升
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 09:38
Core Viewpoint - US Treasury yields have slightly decreased during the European session, but may rise again ahead of the Jackson Hole conference, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell set to speak on Friday [1] Group 1 - Exness financial market strategist Inki Cho indicates that if recent investor bets on Fed rate cuts diminish, yields could increase [1] - Cho suggests that if Powell's tone implies a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts, yields may further climb [1]
景顺:料美联储年底前减息两次 美国国债收益率或继续维持低位
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 06:24
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US inflation data for July met expectations, alleviating concerns about potential inflation from Trump's tariff policies, and Invesco maintains its forecast for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points [1] - The recent mild inflation data, combined with weak employment data from the previous month, supports the rationale for easing monetary policy [1] - The market is closely watching Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which is traditionally seen as an indicator of the Fed's policy direction in the coming months [1] Group 2 - The yield curve for US Treasury bonds has become steeper since the release of the July CPI data, contrary to expectations that rate cut forecasts would lead to lower long-term yields [1] - Concerns about Trump's escalating criticism of Fed Chair Powell and the potential for Powell's replacement could increase market risks [2] - The recent appointment of E.J. Antoni to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics raises questions about the historical independence of the Fed, potentially disrupting the market [2] Group 3 - Even if the Fed resumes rate cuts later this year, long-term US Treasury yields may still rise, especially if the cuts are less than the approximately 125 basis points currently priced in by the market [2] - A similar situation occurred last year when the Fed only cut rates by 100 basis points, while the market expected nearly 200 basis points, leading to an increase in the 10-year Treasury yield from about 3.7% in September to approximately 4.6% by year-end [2]
美国国债收益率:8月7日急升或因“胖手指”乌龙
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 02:47
Core Viewpoint - The sudden surge in U.S. Treasury yields has sparked speculation in the market regarding its causes, with some attributing it to a potential technical error and others suggesting it may be related to interest rate hedging for corporate bond issuance [1] Group 1 - U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities experienced a sharp increase, particularly from two-year to thirty-year bonds [1] - Analysts indicated that the spike in yields could be a result of large-scale selling in the futures market [1] - A significant trading error was suggested, where a trader intended to sell 8,000 contracts of 10-year Treasury futures but mistakenly sold 80,000 contracts, a volume 20 times the normal size [1]
两年期美债收益率跌幅扩大至约24个基点,延续美国非农就业报告发布之后的跌势
news flash· 2025-08-01 14:12
Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell nearly 15 basis points, reaching a daily low of 4.2237%, after briefly rising to a daily high of 4.4060% just ten minutes before the U.S. non-farm payroll report was released [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield dropped approximately 24 basis points, hitting a daily low of 3.7124%, and remained around the 3.95% level prior to the non-farm payroll report [1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 1.2%, settling at 98.67 points [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index experienced a decline of 1.74%, while the Dow Jones dropped 684 points, reflecting a 1.54% decrease [1] - The Nasdaq fell by 495 points, marking a 2.34% drop, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index decreased by 3.13% [1] - The Russell 2000 index also saw a decline of 2.39% [1]
美国7月非农就业报告公布后,美元指数累计下跌约100点,现货黄金累计拉升约30美元
news flash· 2025-08-01 12:49
Core Insights - The U.S. 2 to 7-year Treasury yields fell by at least 10 basis points following the release of the July non-farm payroll report [1] - Spot gold prices increased by approximately $30, currently reported at $3,334.34 per ounce [1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by about 100 points, now at 99.23 [1] Currency Movements - Non-U.S. currencies experienced a broad rally, with the euro rising nearly 1% against the dollar [1] - The British pound appreciated by 0.45% against the dollar [1] - The Australian dollar increased by 0.6% against the dollar [1]
美国2至7年期国债收益率日内下跌至少10个基点。
news flash· 2025-08-01 12:45
Core Viewpoint - The yield on U.S. 2 to 7-year Treasury bonds has decreased by at least 10 basis points during the day [1] Group 1 - The decline in Treasury yields indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1] - This movement in yields may reflect broader economic concerns or changes in monetary policy expectations [1]
美国10年期国债收益率最新下跌4.2个基点
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 14:08
美国国债收益率目前进一步下跌,10年期国债收益率最新下跌4.2个基点,至4.336%;2年期国债收益率 降至3.928%。 ...