风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国10年期国债收益率短线波动超1个基点，刷新日高至4.26%上方，两年期美债收益率短线波动超1.5 个基点，刷新日高至3.59%上方。 标普和道指跌幅略微扩大至超过0.1%，现货黄金持稳于5270美元一 线，涨幅超过1.7%。 ...

亚洲交易时段，美国国债收益率基本持平，美联储将在今日晚些时候公布利率决定。市场预计美联储将 维持政策利率不变。东方汇理投资研究所的Alessia Berardi在一份报告中称："一系列好坏参半的数据使 得衡量美国通胀放缓程度变得困难，而且消费者活动依然强劲。"这位全球宏观经济主管表示，不过， 预期的按兵不动并不意味着降息的结束。东方汇理资产管理预计，在平静的第一季度之后，第二季度将 有两次降息。据Tradeweb的数据，两年期美国国债收益率小幅下跌0.2个基点，至3.566%；10年期美国 国债收益率上涨0.4个基点，至4.226%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise in U.S. Treasury yields during Asian afternoon trading, reflecting market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in its upcoming decision on Wednesday [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower its key policy rate by 75 basis points in 2025, with a hold on rates at least until early 2026 [1] - This decision aligns with market expectations and the observed health of the U.S. economic cycle, despite potential discontent from the White House [1] Group 2: Treasury Yields - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.220% [1] - Conversely, the 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.2 basis points to 3.594% [1]

在美联储会议召开前，美国国债收益率在数据陈旧和政治紧张局势升温的情况下保持稳定。因10月份政 府停摆而推迟公布的数据显示，11月份耐用品订单增长5.3%，高于《华尔街日报》调查的经济学家平 均预期的4.5%，10月份数据修正为下降2.1%。市场预计美联储将在周三维持利率不变，美联储主席鲍 威尔可能会面临有关该央行独立性的提问。政府停摆的威胁增加，因为民主党人将支持拨款与调整移民 执法挂钩。10年期美国国债收益率为4.227%，2年期美国国债收益率为3.605%，均与周五基本持平。华 尔街日报美元指数持平，黄金上涨1.5%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

大和 证券分析师木内英二表示，若美元兑日元USD/JPY升破159关口，日本政府可能干预外汇市场以阻 止日元快速走弱。他补充称，下一个警戒线在164水平。投资者此前认为美国会反对汇率干预，因为任 何买入日元、卖出美元的操作都会在日本方面出售美债筹集资金时推高美国国债收益率。然而，美联储 上周末进行的利率检查被市场参与者解读为美国容忍此类行动的信号。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that U.S. Treasury yields have risen following a slight increase in unemployment claims [1] Group 2 - The rise in unemployment claims indicates potential shifts in the labor market, which may influence economic forecasts and investor sentiment [1] - The increase in Treasury yields could affect borrowing costs and investment strategies across various sectors [1] - Market reactions to these economic indicators may lead to adjustments in asset allocations by institutional investors [1]

Group 1 - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose rapidly, increasing by 6.24 basis points this week, with a final rate of 3.5945% [1] - The ten-year Treasury yield increased by 5.96 basis points this week, reaching 4.2269% [1] - The thirty-year Treasury yield saw a rise of 2.24 basis points this week, ending at 4.8355% [1] Group 2 - The yield spread between the two-year and ten-year Treasury notes increased by 2.723 basis points, totaling +62.833 basis points, with a weekly decline of 0.285 basis points [2] - The ten-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield rose by 2.16 basis points this week, reaching 1.8813% [2] - The two-year TIPS yield increased by 0.62 basis points this week, totaling 1.0411% [2]

Group 1 - There are indications that President Trump will not choose his chief economic advisor Kevin Hassett to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has startled the bond market after months of calm [1][2] - The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been hovering around 4% to 4.2% for over four months, but it broke above this range on Friday, potentially closing above 4.2% for the first time since September 3 of last year [1][2] - The rise in yields followed Trump's public statement to Hassett that he preferred him to remain in his current position rather than move to the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant jump in yields [1][2] Group 2 - The bond market's reaction contradicts some investors' arguments that if Hassett were chosen to lead the Federal Reserve, yields and borrowing costs for the economy would rise [1][2] - Critics have expressed concerns that Hassett would be more loyal to Trump than other candidates and that interest rate cuts could exceed what economic data would reasonably support [1][2] - U.S. Treasury yields largely reflect investors' expectations of the average level of interest rates set by the Federal Reserve over the life of the bonds; overly aggressive rate cuts could raise concerns about inflation and the risk of significantly higher future rates, potentially leading to an increase in long-term U.S. Treasury yields [1][2] Group 3 - The increase in yields on Friday indicates that investors are making a more direct calculation: if the Federal Reserve cuts rates more in the short term, even long-term yields should be lower; conversely, if there are fewer cuts, long-term yields would be higher [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields are rising following President Trump's comments about not wanting National Economic Council Director Hassett to be the Federal Reserve Chair, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards the likelihood of former Fed Governor Walsh being appointed instead [1] Group 1 - Following Trump's remarks, the market probability for Walsh to become the Federal Reserve Chair has increased [1] - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields suggests that investors believe Walsh may not be as aggressive as Hassett in pushing for interest rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields are rising, with traders maintaining a range-bound trading pattern since early December, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The 10-year Treasury yield is currently around 4.193%, up from 4.159% on Thursday [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield is reported at 3.576%, higher than Thursday's 3.563% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Market participants are focused on the current trading range of U.S. interest rates and potential catalysts that may lead to a market repricing [1] - Significant uncertainties are identified in geopolitical factors, White House policy directions, and Supreme Court decisions [1]