昨日12月16日（星期二），黄金早盘上涨至4318附近受阻下跌，到欧盘前最低跌至4271附近，欧盘低位震荡。美盘前开始企稳上涨，美盘初延续上涨，最高 触及4335附近，随后受阻下跌，凌晨下探4291附近后反弹4300上方震荡，日线收出一根十字阴线。 一、基本面 1、美国11月就业数据"撕裂" 积极面：非农就业岗位增加6.4万个，显著高于市场预期的5万个，扭转10月减少10.5万个岗位的颓势（10月减少因43天政府停摆导致联邦政府职位锐减16.2 万个）；私人部门就业平均每月增加7.5万个，被视为劳动力市场健康的积极信号。 局势动态：俄罗斯控制哈尔科夫地区诺沃普拉托诺夫卡定居点，对乌军设施实施154次打击；乌克兰在多方向击退俄军进攻；美欧考虑停火后向乌提供安全 保护，德国总理默茨称必要时维和部队可对俄军动武，且欧洲有50%可能性用冻结的俄罗斯资产为乌提供至少两年资金支持。 消极面：失业率意外升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来（四年多）最高水平，部分受技术因素影响（政府停摆后联邦雇员自报失业、调查回应率仅64%低于正常 水平、"轮换偏差"），且失业率数据标准误差高于正常，需谨慎解读。 市场影响：就业反弹支撑美元缩 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is trading at $4267.29 per ounce, showing a slight decline after reaching around $4240 during the Asian trading session on Thursday [1][7] - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, the lowest level in three years, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [1][7] - The ongoing interest rate cuts are expected to provide medium-term support for gold prices, although geopolitical tensions may hinder a strong upward trend [1][2][8] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold has successfully broken through previous upward ranges and is currently above the $4200 mark, indicating a strong bullish trend [2][8] - The daily chart shows a series of upward movements, with MACD indicators indicating expanding positive momentum and RSI remaining in a strong zone without reaching extreme overbought levels [2][8] - Short-term resistance levels are identified between $4331 and $4381, while support is focused around the $4200 level [3][9] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - As of December 12, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $57.93 per barrel, with Brent crude oil at $61.28 per barrel, both experiencing declines due to geopolitical changes and excess fuel inventories in the U.S. [4][10] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of approximately 2.5 million barrels in gasoline and distillate inventories, indicating a surplus in the fuel market [4][10] - The potential for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could lead to an increase in Russian oil supply returning to the global market, impacting oil prices [4][10] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates a secondary oscillation pattern, with prices testing the strong support level around $56 [5][11] - Short-term trends are showing a downward direction, with MACD indicating a weakening of bearish momentum [5][11] - The recommended trading strategy for oil suggests focusing on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with key resistance levels at $59.5 to $60.5 and support at $57.0 to $56.0 [5][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The long - position of precious metals is strong, but there may be a short - term adjustment need after continuous sharp rises, and long - positions should continue to hold [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 0.36% to $4227.7 per ounce; COMEX silver futures rose 2.28% to $58.8 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.15% at 958.72 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.67% to 13788 yuan per kilogram [1] - On December 5, the US dollar index fell slightly, closing at 98.98. COMEX gold fluctuated narrowly, and COMEX silver remained strong, hitting a new high and then falling slightly [2] Important Information - As of December 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 0.33 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1050.25 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is about 87% [1] - On the evening of December 5, Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bezant and Trade Representative Greer, discussing in - depth and constructively about future practical cooperation and properly resolving concerns in the economic and trade fields [1] - On December 5, it was announced that the US core PCE price index in September rose 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the expected and previous values (both 2.9%); it rose 0.2% month - on - month, consistent with market expectations and the previous value [1] - Central bank data shows that China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of November were reported at $33463.72 billion. China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the 13th consecutive month of gold purchases [1] Market Logic - The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, the lowest level since March 2023. The initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 were 191,000, the lowest in more than three years [1] - The US recruitment and departure rates decreased simultaneously, and the number of job vacancies decreased, indicating a "cold" state of weakened corporate expansion willingness and significantly slowed market liquidity [1] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December continued to rise above 80%, driving up precious metal prices. Silver reached a new high due to strong industrial demand, and the silver inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange has been falling for the past three months [1] Trading Strategy - The long - position of precious metals is strong, but there may be a short - term adjustment need after continuous sharp rises, and long - positions should continue to hold [2]

Group 1 - The domestic gold prices in retail stores remain stable, with the highest price at 1328 CNY per gram and the lowest at 1232 CNY per gram [1][3] - Major brands such as Lao Miao, Liufeng, and Chow Tai Fook have not changed their gold prices, maintaining stability [1][3] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices in stores is consistent at 96 CNY per gram [1] Group 2 - Platinum prices have decreased, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum jewelry now priced at 662 CNY per gram, down by 9 CNY [4] - The gold recycling prices have seen a slight increase of 2.7 CNY per gram, with significant price variations among different brands [4] - The current gold recycling prices for various brands range from 907.90 CNY to 942.60 CNY per gram [4] Group 3 - International gold prices showed fluctuations, with a recent low of 4173.79 USD per ounce and a high of 4241.17 USD per ounce, closing at 4206.63 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.09% increase [6] - As of the latest update, the spot gold price is reported at 4224.98 USD per ounce, indicating a 0.44% increase [6] - Analysts note that rising U.S. Treasury yields are limiting gold's upward potential, while fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index provide some support for gold prices [6]

周三，指标10年期国债收益率下跌2.9个基点至4.059%，30年期收益率回落1.6个基点至4.725%，而两年 期收益率下降3个基点至3.486%。这一收益率曲线的温和牛市陡峭化模式，主要反映了市场对美联储即 将降息的预期，两年期与10年期收益率利差维持在57个基点附近，早盘一度达到58.3个基点的高位，为 9月份以来最宽水平。 从技术面来看，日线连续两个小阴线收低，布林开始收口了，但是均线没有破位，所以暂时还不能说要 走出大跌空间，能看跌，至少要跌破布林中轨4150的支撑，跌破后空头的力度就来了，再看周五的下跌 空间。H4周期的区间范围比较明显了，布林收口，均线系统粘合，基本没有上面扩展性，所以，暂时 看不出多空的破位方向，简单来看，就关注今天金价的变化，上破4250再看4300，下破4180后，在看 4150。 周四(12月4日)亚洲时段，现货黄金短线下挫，日内跌破4200美元/盎司，周三黄金行情呈现出持稳态 势，现货黄金价格大多数时间稳定在每盎司4200上方，疲软的美国就业数据一度帮助金价盘中触及 4241.40美元的高点，但尾盘回吐涨幅，收报4203美元附近，接近收平。 美国私营部门就业岗位的意外下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY currency pair has shown increased short-term selling pressure, influenced by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data and market expectations regarding a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy [2][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Employment Data - The ADP employment report revealed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, contrasting with an increase of 47,000 jobs in October, which was revised from an initial estimate of 42,000 [3]. - This decline is the largest monthly drop since the beginning of 2023 and significantly underperformed market expectations of a 5,000 job increase, indicating potential signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming policy meeting is nearly 89%, up from 63% a month ago [4]. - This shift in expectations reflects growing concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which is impacting the value of the U.S. dollar [4]. Group 3: Japanese Central Bank Policy Expectations - Market expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan are providing support for the yen [5]. - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda mentioned that the central bank will consider the pros and cons of rate hikes in the next policy meeting, suggesting an increasing likelihood of adjustments to monetary policy in the near future [5]. Group 4: Market Influences on USD/JPY - The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. economic data performance, Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, Bank of Japan policy direction, and interest rate differentials between the two countries [5]. - Upcoming U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data may either alleviate short-term downward pressure on the dollar if it exceeds expectations or exacerbate it if it indicates further weakness in the labor market [5].

受此前联邦政府停摆影响，延后发布的9月非农就业报告显示，当月新增就业岗位超预期但失业率意外 攀升至3.8%。不过这些数据均属历史性指标，而本应本周公布的10月完整就业数据因政府停摆影响将 推迟发布。衡量美元兑六种主要货币的DXY美元指数当前持平于100.192点。 来源：环球市场播报 美元汇率维持震荡格局，市场对美联储是否会在12月再度降息的预期仍存分歧。最新美联储官员表态显 示，政策制定者对12月是否降息意见不一，而上周公布的美国经济数据也未能指明利率路径方向。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The September non-farm payroll data indicates a marginal recovery in overall employment, but structural issues remain, suggesting that the improvement may not be sustained into October [1][3]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll Data Overview - Non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, exceeding the expected 50,000, with revisions showing July's data adjusted down from 79,000 to 72,000 and August's from 22,000 to -4,000 [1]. - Job growth was concentrated in two sectors: education and healthcare services (+59,000) and leisure and hospitality (+47,000), accounting for about 90% of total job additions [1]. - Other sectors like manufacturing and professional services experienced job losses [1]. Unemployment Rate and Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, primarily due to an increase in labor supply, with the labor force participation rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4% [2]. - Household survey data indicated an increase of 251,000 in employment, while labor supply grew by 472,000 [2]. Wage Growth and Market Expectations - Hourly wage growth was slightly below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3% [2]. - The annualized rate of wage growth over six months decreased from 3.8% to 3.6%, while year-on-year growth remained at 3.8% [2]. - Following the data release, market expectations for a rate cut in December increased, with the probability rising from 29.3% to 34.9% [2]. Future Employment Outlook - Despite the marginal improvement in September, the employment situation may not continue to improve into October, as initial jobless claims have stabilized but continued claims are rising [3]. - The ADP employment data for October suggests job additions remain below 50,000, and job vacancy data from Indeed continues to decline [3]. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated, with probabilities dropping from nearly 100% to around 40% due to comments from Federal Reserve officials expressing concerns about inflation [4]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for October will not be released due to government shutdown, making September's data the only reference for the Fed's December meeting [5]. - The overall direction for rate cuts in the coming year remains clear, with expectations for at least three more cuts based on current economic conditions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The September non-farm payroll data indicates a marginal recovery in overall employment, although structural issues remain. The report shows an increase in non-farm employment that exceeded market expectations, but the growth is concentrated in a few sectors, highlighting ongoing weaknesses in the labor market [3][8]. Employment Situation - Non-farm employment increased by 119,000, surpassing the expected 50,000, with revisions to previous months showing a downward adjustment of 33,000 jobs [16][18]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, primarily due to an increase in labor supply, with the labor force participation rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4% [20][19]. - Job growth was concentrated in two sectors: education and health services (+59,000) and leisure and hospitality (+47,000), which together accounted for about 90% of total job additions [18][19]. Wage Growth and Labor Market Indicators - Hourly wage growth was slightly below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3%. Year-on-year wage growth remained at 3.8% [27][29]. - The average weekly hours worked remained stable at 34.2 hours, indicating a low level of labor utilization [27]. Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for a rate cut in December increased, with the probability rising from 29.3% to 34.9% [29]. - The Federal Reserve's decision-making may be influenced by the lack of recent employment data, as the next non-farm payroll report will not be available until after the December FOMC meeting [14][15]. - There is a prevailing sentiment that the Fed may not cut rates in December, but further cuts are anticipated in early 2024, contingent on sustained improvements in employment data [15][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite delays in data collection due to government shutdowns, the labor market trends are expected to gradually normalize rather than collapse, which may alleviate investor concerns about a rapid deterioration in labor market conditions [1] - The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in the month, with a balanced distribution of job growth, and the diffusion index significantly rose to 55.6, marking the first time it exceeded the breakeven point of 50 since March [1] - Overall, U.S. consumers remain cautious but have not shown signs of a consumption decline, suggesting positive news for the upcoming holiday shopping season [1] Group 2 - Approximately 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported third-quarter earnings, with a year-over-year EPS growth of 13.4% and revenue growth of 8.4% [2] - European stock markets declined, with the Eurozone's November PMI preliminary data highlighting uneven economic momentum, as manufacturing fell into contraction while services remained in expansion [2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, stock markets experienced significant declines, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) dropping 2.6%, marking the largest weekly decline since April, driven by weak performance in technology stocks [2]