Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's trading desks anticipate that the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will indicate elevated inflation data, but they do not expect significant stock market volatility due to the focus on employment data [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - Options traders are betting that the S&P 500 index will experience a two-way movement of approximately 0.7% following the CPI release, which is lower than the average actual volatility of 0.9% on CPI announcement days over the past year [1] - The implied volatility remains high, as traders are assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent employment data has shown signs of weakness that threaten economic growth, leading the market to expect a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate at the conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting on September 17 [1] - There are also expectations for potential rate cuts in the meetings scheduled for October and December [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a record high of $3578.29 per ounce, driven by weak U.S. employment data and strong safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties [1][3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is at 96.6%, with only a 3.4% chance of maintaining current rates [1] - Following the release of employment data, traders increased their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve from 92% to 98% [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity in most U.S. districts has shown little to no change, with consumer spending remaining flat or declining due to wages not keeping pace with rising prices [4] - Inflation was reported across all districts, with ten districts noting moderate or subdued inflation, while two reported strong input price growth [4] - Tariff-related price increases were mentioned as a significant factor affecting input prices in many districts [4]

Group 1: Employment Data Revision Insights - The July non-farm payroll report revised the employment data for May and June down by 258,000, raising concerns about the accuracy of U.S. employment data[4] - Since 1979, the probability of downward revisions in non-farm payrolls has increased during economic slowdowns, with a current downward revision probability of 72.4% since 2023[10] - The average downward revision magnitude has widened to -12.8% in 2023, compared to a historical average of -8.4%[10] Group 2: Factors Contributing to Data Volatility - Four main factors have contributed to increased volatility in U.S. employment data post-pandemic: decreased response rates in non-farm surveys, increased immigration complicating data collection, seasonal disruptions, and larger errors in the Birth-Death Model[6] - The response rate for non-farm surveys has dropped from 59% pre-pandemic to 42.9% in May 2025, indicating a significant reduction in sample size[19] - The Birth-Death Model has led to an estimated overestimation of employment levels by approximately 440,000 jobs due to structural changes in new business formations[21] Group 3: Upcoming Employment Data Revisions - Attention is drawn to the upcoming benchmark revision of non-farm employment data scheduled for September 9, 2025, which may lead to further downward adjustments[7] - The QCEW data, which covers over 95% of employment, is expected to provide a more accurate reflection of employment levels compared to the non-farm payrolls, which cover only about one-third[44] - Historical trends suggest that the upcoming benchmark revision may result in a downward adjustment similar to the previous year's initial revision of 818,000 jobs[52]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, and two additional cuts in 2026, bringing rates down to a range of 3% to 3.25% from the current 4.25% to 4.50% [1] - The recent inflation report indicated a modest increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with a 0.2% rise in July following a 0.3% increase in June, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - The decline in gasoline prices by 2.2% contributed to the moderate decrease in the CPI, while food prices remained unchanged after two months of 0.3% increases [1] Group 2 - The U.S. interest rate futures market indicated a 93.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with a 6% chance of a 50 basis point cut, a significant increase from 3% earlier in the day [1][2] - Traders are now anticipating a total rate cut of approximately 65 basis points for the year, up from about 60 basis points the previous week [1] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen suggested that a 50 basis point cut could be possible due to recent poor employment data, advocating for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points [3] - Yellen's comments reflect a tendency of the Trump administration to publicly criticize and provide detailed policy suggestions to the independent central bank [3]

Group 1 - President Trump indicated that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin does not wish to be nominated to replace Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair, stating that Mnuchin prefers to remain in his current position [1] - Trump is considering four candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position, including former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, but he does not plan to make a quick decision [1] - The unexpected early resignation of Fed Governor Quarles has heightened market interest in who will fill the vacancy, as the successor is likely to become the next Fed Chair [1] Group 2 - Following the release of disappointing July non-farm payroll data, market expectations for interest rate cuts have surged, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in September [2] - The July non-farm payroll data showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below market expectations, and previous months' data were revised downwards [2] - Trump's dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner has raised concerns about the integrity of employment data, which is crucial for global investors [2] Group 3 - Trump reiterated claims of "manipulated" data despite assertions from former officials that the BLS Commissioner does not participate in data details and that data revisions are standard [3] - Hassett defended Trump's decision to fire the BLS Commissioner, suggesting that the data revision process needs clearer explanations and that the BLS should modernize its data collection methods [3] - Trump criticized the current data collection process as outdated and overly politicized [3]

Group 1 - The central bank of China raised the RMB to USD midpoint rate by 101 points to 7.1395, marking the largest increase since January 21, 2025 [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 10.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 89.1% [4] - In October, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged is 3.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 35.6% and a 50 basis point cut at 60.9% [4] Group 3 - The July U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions to the previous two months' data, while the unemployment rate only slightly increased [5] - The impact of immigration policies since May is believed to be increasingly affecting the job market, leading to a notable drag on non-farm payroll numbers, although the unemployment rate remains relatively stable [5] - The July employment data may not be sufficient to alter Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish stance [5]

Group 1 - Former President Trump calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to resign, citing mistakes in interest rate decisions [2] - Trump criticizes Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erica McEntyre for allegedly inflating employment data ahead of the 2024 U.S. elections and demands her immediate dismissal [2] - The U.S. Labor Secretary announced the appointment of William Wyatroski as the acting director of the Labor Statistics Bureau, replacing Erica McEntyre [2]

Group 1 - The July employment report in the U.S. was unexpectedly weak, raising concerns among Federal Reserve officials about the economic outlook [1] - Non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, while June's data was revised down from over 200,000 to just 14,000 [1] - Despite the disappointing employment data, the labor market is still considered "healthy" by some officials, with the unemployment rate remaining within a normal range over the past year [2] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector also showed signs of weakness, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) falling from 49.0 in June to 48.0 in July, indicating continued contraction for the fifth consecutive month [1] - Federal Reserve officials are cautious about predicting further rate cuts in 2025, emphasizing the need for businesses to adjust pricing strategies in the current complex economic environment [1] - There are notable divisions among policymakers regarding the economic situation, reflecting the complexity of the current period [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, with new jobs anticipated to drop to 110,000 from 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - Analysts believe that despite signs of cooling in the labor market, this is not sufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve to immediately lower interest rates, especially given the inflationary pressures from new tariff policies [3] - The market has shifted expectations for a rate cut from September to October, with some analysts warning that the window for the Fed to implement easing policies is narrowing due to rising prices from tariffs [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis of gold indicates that the market is showing signs of weakening bullish momentum, with the 5-month moving average moving up to 3293, suggesting that short-term support is weakening [4] - The price of gold is currently in a wide trading range between 3452 and 3246, with a potential downward movement towards the 10-month moving average around 3050 as tariffs take effect and safe-haven demand decreases [4] - The focus for gold prices this week is on the mid-band level of 3275; a close below this level could open further downside potential, while a close above it would suggest continued wide fluctuations [4]

金十数据8月1日讯，三菱日联分析师Derek Halpenny表示，如果美国7月就业数据强劲，美元应该会进 一步走强，但任何上涨都可能是有限的。美国经济的好消息已经在很大程度上反映在美元价格上，7月 份美元兑一篮子货币上涨了3.19%，创2022年4月以来涨幅最大的一个月。美元7月份的强劲上涨确实表 明，利好消息得到了更好的消化，这将限制美元今天的走强空间。不过，如果非农就业人数增幅高于预 期，可能会消除9月份降息的可能性。 三菱日联：非农数据若强劲将推动美元再涨，但涨幅有限 ...