Group 1 - The dollar index has experienced its worst half-year performance since 1973, with a cumulative decline of approximately 10.8% in 2025, second only to a 14.8% drop in the first half of 1973 [1] - Key factors contributing to the dollar's decline include Donald Trump's trade and tariff policies, which have created significant uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook, negatively impacting the dollar's attractiveness [2] - Trump's public criticism of the Federal Reserve and calls for interest rate cuts have undermined market confidence in the dollar, as the independence of the central bank is crucial for currency stability [3] Group 2 - Market optimism regarding U.S. trade agreements has fueled strong expectations for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting additional downward pressure on the dollar [4] - Following the dollar index's drop to multi-year lows, further downward pressure is anticipated due to dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve and weak domestic economic data [5] - The significant depreciation of the dollar is likely to impact U.S. trade dynamics, making exports more competitive while increasing import prices, potentially leading to inflationary pressures [6] Group 3 - The decline of the dollar is prompting central banks worldwide to reassess their foreign exchange reserve structures, with many increasing allocations to gold, euros, and renminbi to reduce reliance on the dollar [7] - A survey indicated that 70% of central banks believe the U.S. political environment hinders their investment in dollars, leading to a diversification trend that could reshape the global monetary system [7] - The future trajectory of the dollar index remains uncertain, influenced by trade policies, Federal Reserve adjustments, and global economic growth [7]

Group 1 - The traditional negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has weakened, leading to a new pricing framework for gold [1][3] - Prior to 2022, the relationship between gold prices and real interest rates was stable, with rising real rates leading to decreased demand for gold and vice versa [3] - Since 2022, gold prices have remained strong even in the context of significant increases in real interest rates, challenging the traditional pricing logic [3] Group 2 - Central bank gold purchases have become a significant driver of gold prices, with over 1000 tons bought in the past three years, double the average from 2010 to 2021 [4] - Concerns over the dominance of the US dollar and the need for diversified asset allocation have led to increased central bank demand for gold [4] - The uncertainty in the monetary system is reshaping gold's role as a store of value, with investors viewing it as a core asset to mitigate monetary risks rather than just an inflation hedge [4] Group 3 - The importance of gold as a diversification tool in investment portfolios has increased amid global economic uncertainty [4] - Institutional investors are beginning to see gold as a necessary long-term allocation rather than a short-term trading asset, providing ongoing support for gold prices [4]

第二，借助稳定币崛起为美元提供强有力支撑。稳定币的原本目标是将数字资产的效率与传统货币的可 靠性相结合，降低数字资产的波动风险。特朗普政府的目标是推动普及实行 "1币 = 1美元" 的固定汇率 稳定币。此举将巩固基准美元的优势地位，进一步强化美元在全球货币体系中的主导作用。由于大多数 稳定币与美元挂钩，其广泛使用可能实际上增强美元的流动性，增加美元的需求，从而支撑美元的地 位。稳定币市场正向美元绝对强势的方向发展，区块链加密货币交易中的2/3是稳定币，超九成是与美 元挂钩的泰达币。其先发优势和流动性深度形成强大的网络效应，使得借贷、跨境贸易结算等高度依赖 美元体系。即使其他国家尝试发行非美元稳定币，也难以在短期内打破这种路径依赖。 白宫正在推动稳定币立法。在《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》获得美国参议院通过后，美国总 统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上发帖称，"尽快把它送到我的办公桌上。不要拖延，不要附加条 件。"这项雄心勃勃的法案旨在借助稳定币的崛起提振美国国债市场，为美元提供强有力支撑，并巩固 美元贸易结算优势地位。但长远看，稳定币无法解决美国债务的不可持续性、货币政策的外溢效应等美 元体系的内在矛盾， ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Morgan Stanley's report dampens market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in July and September, citing strong inflation data and robust employment reports as key factors [2] - The report indicates that the support for rate cuts is weak, with seven policymakers predicting no cuts this year, contrasting with ongoing pressure from Trump [2] Group 2: Trump's Trade Policies - Trump's erratic behavior has become a significant source of uncertainty for the global economy, with conflicting signals regarding tariff extensions [4] - The potential for new tariffs on industries such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft is under close scrutiny, raising concerns about the impact on global trade [6] Group 3: Economic Implications of Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to increase inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and potentially leading to friction between the government and the central bank [8] - The rise of protectionism and trade fragmentation is exacerbating the decline in economic growth and productivity, posing urgent threats to growth, inflation, and financial stability [8] Group 4: Economic Forecasts and Market Reactions - A survey indicates that over 90% of economists are concerned about Trump's policies undermining the dollar's safe-haven status, with predictions of rising U.S. federal debt [11] - Following the announcement of tariffs, global stock markets experienced volatility, and the dollar depreciated, leading to expectations that 10-year Treasury yields could exceed 5% by mid-next year [11] Group 5: Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve has raised alarms among former officials, warning that it could lead to market chaos and undermine the Fed's credibility [13] - The potential for increased borrowing costs and capital flight from the dollar and U.S. Treasuries could challenge the Fed's ability to manage economic stability [13] Group 6: Future Economic Uncertainty - If Trump opts for reciprocal tariffs instead of extensions, both the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting policies will face greater uncertainty, leading to a more severe global economic test [15]

本周，全球央行行长们将在葡萄牙辛特拉的欧洲央行年度论坛聚首，一个关键议题浮出水面：以美元为 核心的货币体系是否正开始瓦解？ 拉加德正站在欧元区央行行长前所未有的位置：将单一货币作为稳定堡垒推广。数年前，欧洲央行仍面 临欧元崩溃猜测，如今拉加德正借美元困境推动"欧元时刻"。 尽管十年前对欧元的悲观情绪被证明过度，但经济学家们强调，欧盟若想将欧元从全球货币排行榜第二 的位置提升，仍有艰巨任务。被视为"国家联盟而非真正一体化实体"的欧盟，普遍被认为需在金融、经 济和军事领域深化整合，才能挑战美元地位。 OMFIF调查显示，16%的央行计划在未来12-24个月增持欧元，使其成为需求最高的货币——但仍远低 于黄金。 美国、欧元区、英国、日本和韩国的央行首脑们将就全球贸易紧张局势与中东冲突如何影响通胀与增长 前景交换意见。但在多数国家通胀似乎受控的背景下，更深刻的问题或将主导讨论：特朗普的保护主义 与不可预测的经济政策，会终结这个统治全球金融80年的体系吗？ 即将出席该论坛的法国巴黎银行首席经济学家马特奥斯·拉戈（Isabelle Mateos y Lago）表示："和所有 人一样，他们正在艰难地试图理解我们将走向怎样的 ...

完整性测试关注货币体系抵御金融犯罪和非法活动的能力。公共区块链的匿名性虽然能够保护用户隐私，但也为非法活动提供了便利条件。稳定币缺乏传统 金融体系中的"了解你的客户"标准，其无记名性质使得资金流通无需发行方监督。这些特征引发了对稳定币被用于洗钱、恐怖主义融资等金融犯罪的担忧。 尽管区块链分析公司能够协助追踪某些犯罪交易，但这种技术手段难以扩展到日常支付中数十亿次的反洗钱检查。 传统货币体系的优势地位 国际清算银行认为，以央行为核心的现行双层货币体系在确保货币适用性方面仍然优于其他模式。央行提供最高形式的货币，支持结算的最终性，并确保计 价单位的稳定性和可信度。商业银行和其他私营部门实体则提供关键服务，支持境内外经济活动，为经济交易提供有效的支付手段。这种体系架构经过长期 实践检验，其优势需要被认可和保留。 国际清算银行近期发布的年度经济报告引发了全球金融界的广泛关注。这份报告专门探讨了下一代货币和金融体系前景，对稳定币的发展前景提出了质疑性 观点。报告明确指出，稳定币虽然在代币化方面展现出某些潜力，但在货币体系的核心评估标准上存在明显不足。这一评估结果对当前火热的稳定币市场产 生了显著冲击，也为全球监管机构的 ...

Core Insights - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on creating a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in globalization and explore win-win transformation paths [1] Group 1: Economic Analysis - The former president of the Bank of China, Li Lihui, analyzed the structural contradictions in the U.S. financial situation, highlighting a significant trade imbalance with annual trade deficits exceeding $500 billion and a decline in manufacturing's contribution to GDP from 28.1% to 9.96% by Q3 2024 [4] - Li pointed out the severe fiscal imbalance in the U.S., with national debt reaching $36 trillion and annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion [4] Group 2: U.S. Financial Strategy - To address its fiscal deficits, the U.S. relies on its international monetary hegemony, issuing dollars to purchase global goods, which is essential for maintaining its dominant position in the global financial system [4] - The recent introduction of a stablecoin initiative by the U.S. aims to tie stablecoins to the dollar, expanding the U.S. Treasury market and promoting dollarization in global financial markets, intensifying competition with China in the monetary and financial sectors [4] Group 3: Recommendations for Financial Development - Recommendations include improving the monetary policy framework and financial market structure to enhance policy transmission efficiency and increase direct financing [5] - Emphasis on financial technology and institutional innovation to reconstruct financial services and management processes, thereby improving the capacity to serve the real economy and enhancing regulatory efficiency [5] - Advocating for a multipolar international monetary system to reduce reliance on a single sovereign currency and enhance the resilience of the global financial system [5] Group 4: Cross-Border Payment and Currency Internationalization - The need for a diversified cross-border payment system is highlighted, with a focus on establishing digital payment infrastructure and multilateral payment systems to prevent the politicization of payment tools [6] - The push for the internationalization of the Renminbi is emphasized, with the currency already being the third-largest payment currency globally, aiming to expand its functions in international payments, financing, and reserves [6]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 4 月份特朗普对等关税措施引发全球金融市场海啸并将全球经贸体系重组推 入快车道，多重避险需求共振推动金价狂飙并一度突破 3500 美元/盎司；虽然情 绪冲击减退以及全球贸易形势边际缓和使得金价高位回调，但整体看中级上涨趋 势仍保持良好。我们判断特朗普以美国优先原则推动国内外改革的决心并没有根 本性变化，美国国际贸易法院判决无法彻底阻止特朗普的关税武器化行动，特朗 普漫天要价和极限施压的谈判风格带给市场更大的不确定性。而在黑天鹅事件逐 步落地之后市场要继续面对全球贸易货币体系加速重组对跨国 ...

重塑全球金融秩序：中美稳定币角逐背后的货币霸权之争 然而，这种策略的潜在风险在于，如果全球范围内广泛使用与美债挂钩的稳定币，实际上是将美国的债务风险转嫁给全球。面对美国的这一举动，中国央行 迅速采取了应对措施。 中国的反击：数字人民币"弯道超车" 中国对于稳定币和虚拟货币的态度截然不同。虚拟货币因缺乏实际价值支撑，被视为非法投机工具；而稳定币由于锚定金融或实物资产，具有内在价值，被 视为一种潜在的信用扩张工具。中国认为，稳定币有助于提升一个国家的货币霸权和财政实力。 为了掌握稳定币领域的话语权，中国正在积极推动数字人民币的国际化。中国央行行长在上海陆家嘴论坛上宣布，数字人民币国际运营中心即将落地，跨境 支付系统将绕开SWIFT。这意味着，企业跨境汇款不再需要耗时数天，支付高额手续费，而是可以通过数字人民币"货币桥"实现秒速到账，且不限消费场 景。 当前全球经济格局正经历一场深刻的变革，中美两国在稳定币领域的博弈，不仅仅是一场技术竞赛，更是对未来国际货币体系主导权的争夺。稳定币，这种 与法定货币或特定资产挂钩的加密货币，正成为两国角逐的新战场，其背后隐藏着各自不同的战略意图。 美债的"ICU时刻"：特朗普政府的 ...

近日，国际清算银行发布年度经济报告称，建议各国央行加快推动代币化进程，稳定币在代币化方面展 现出一些前景，但在单一性、弹性和完整性这三个关键测试中表现不佳，未能达到成为货币体系支柱的 要求。 与此同时，国际清算银行认为稳定币引发了许多其他担忧。稳定币的不记名性质使其能够在不受发行人 监管的情况下流通，这引发了人们对其被用于洗钱和恐怖主义融资等金融犯罪的担忧。 "虽然稳定币的未来角色尚不明朗，但它们在三项测试中的糟糕表现表明，它们充其量只能扮演辅助角 色。"国际清算银行在报告中写道，任何此类角色的指导原则都是将合法用例引入受监管的货币体系， 且不得损害金融稳定或现有体系已证实的优势，非法使用将不受监管。 根据国际清算银行的定义，稳定币被设计为通往加密生态系统的门户，承诺在公链上运行，并相对于法 定货币(主要是美元)保持稳定的价值。 国际清算银行认为，稳定币未能通过构建货币体所需的三项关键测试，因此无法达到成为货币体系支柱 的要求。这三项关键测试分别是：货币的单一性、弹性和完整性。 报告称，作为无边界公链上的数字不记名工具，稳定币缺乏央行提供的结算功能，因此，稳定币的交易 汇率经常变化，从而破坏了单一性。 在弹性 ...