瑞达期货研究院 「2025.7.4」 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 添加客服 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周普遍上涨，除科创50外均录得上涨。四期指表现分化，大盘蓝 筹股强于中小盘股。本周一，国内6月PMI公布，三大PMI指数均较上月回升，市场情绪受到 推动；周二至周四市场震荡整理；周五午间，商务部发言人表示中美双方将各自解除经贸限 制，带动A股午后拉升。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周小幅回落。 2 来源：瑞达期货研究院 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2509 | 1.53 | 0.46 | 3936.0 | | | IH2509 | 1.39 | 0.62 | 2717.2 | | | IC2509 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major indices generally rose this week, with the exception of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50. The performance of the four stock index futures was differentiated, and large - cap blue - chip stocks were stronger than small and medium - cap stocks. The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait for band - trading opportunities after clear policy signals. For commodities, the index is expected to strengthen, and it is recommended to buy on dips. For foreign exchange, it is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. - The improvement in trade relations and domestic policies on reducing over - capacity are expected to drive the commodity index to strengthen. The US dollar is supported in the short - term by non - farm data but may be suppressed in the long - term by the tax - cut bill. The euro is viewed with an oscillatory outlook due to short - term tariff uncertainties [6]. - The US employment market shows signs of slowing actual momentum, and the outcome of tariff negotiations is a key variable for the market. The eurozone economy has positive signs but may face short - term callback pressure, while the Japanese yen may be supported [10]. - China's manufacturing industry is moderately recovering, with the service industry driving the overall economic prosperity. There is still room for subsequent economic recovery [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.54%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 1.49%. A - share major indices generally rose, and the four stock index futures showed differentiated performance. The market was driven by the release of June PMI data on Monday and the news of the relaxation of Sino - US economic and trade restrictions on Friday afternoon. Market trading activity declined slightly compared with last week. It is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.03% this week, with a change of - 0.04BP. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03%. The short - term Treasury bond futures were weak, and the long - term ones were strong. Given the current weak economic recovery and policy uncertainties, it is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose 0.36%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose 0.84%. The improvement in trade relations and domestic over - capacity reduction policies are expected to drive the commodity index to strengthen. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar rose 0.56%, and the euro against the US dollar 2509 contract rose 0.62%. The US dollar is supported in the short - term by non - farm data but may be suppressed in the long - term by the tax - cut bill. The eurozone inflation is cooling, and the economy is expected to be boosted, but it still faces short - term tariff uncertainties. It is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission held its sixth meeting to study issues such as the in - depth promotion of the national unified market and high - quality development of the marine economy. The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee reviewed the "Regulations on the Work of the Party Central Committee's Decision - Making and Coordination Institutions". Three departments issued tax - incentive policies for overseas investors' direct investment with distributed profits. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued all the 800 billion yuan "two - major" construction project lists for this year [14]. - **International News**: Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates. The International Settlement Bank warned that US inflation may return. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is low. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. The EU and the US are in the final stage of trade - agreement negotiations [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In June, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.7, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5, and the composite PMI was 50.7. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan this week [6][11][19]. - **US**: In June, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, the ADP employment number was - 33,000, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls were 147,000 [17]. - **EU**: In June, the eurozone manufacturing PMI final value was 49.5, the CPI annual rate initial value was 2%, and the May unemployment rate was 6.3% [17]. - **Other Countries**: The UK's Q1 GDP annual rate final value was 1.3%, Germany's June CPI monthly rate initial value was 0, and France's June manufacturing PMI final value was 48.1 [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data to be released include Germany's May seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate, the eurozone's May retail sales monthly rate, Japan's May trade balance, China's June CPI and PPI annual rates, and the US's May wholesale sales monthly rate, among others [84].

据环球网消息，7月2日，路透社消息称美国政府撤销对华乙烷出口限制，8艘滞留船只驶往中国，中美 贸易现新动向。这事得从6月说起。当时美国商务部限制美企对华出口乙烷，导致6月美对华出口量直接 归零，8艘装满乙烷的船只能在墨西哥湾漂着，美国企业急得不行，到处找别的买家。可数据摆在那， 中国一直是美国乙烷的大市场，之前中国进口的美国乙烷占其出口量的一半，5月份美国还每天向中国 出口25.7万桶呢。 现在限制一解除，船马上就往中国开，这说明啥？说明美国企业根本离不开中国市场。不只是乙烷，美 国还宣布不再限制对华出口芯片设计软件，西门子接到通知后第一时间就恢复了中国客户的权限。之前 中美在稀土出口问题上也达成了一致，美国相应取消了一系列对华限制措施。这些动作可不多见，要知 道以前美国尤其是特朗普时期，对华态度可强硬了，老喜欢挥舞关税大棒，觉得这样就能让中国让步。 特朗普在美国国会大厦（资料图） 但事实是，中国不仅扛住了压力，还让美国自己调整了政策。从这能看出几个变化。首先，中国这波应 对得漂亮。美国以为加关税就能让中国妥协，结果中国没屈服，反而让美国不得不取消限制。这就像给 美国上了一课，让他们明白得好好和中国打交道。其 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - Clients believe that China's growth target of around 5% is likely to be achieved due to resilient export demand, although concerns exist about a significant slowdown in exports after the summer [1] - There is a prevailing pessimism regarding the real estate market, with expectations of continued declines in housing prices and a contraction in real estate investment extending into next year [1] - Many clients anticipate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation may remain negative for the year, and there is little hope for additional policy stimulus unless economic data deteriorates rapidly [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Clients express concerns about potential escalation in trade tensions as the July 9 deadline approaches, but most believe that the peak of uncertainty has passed [2] - Despite trade uncertainties, some international clients are increasing investments in Chinese production infrastructure due to cost efficiency and product quality advantages [2] - Investors expect the USD/CNY exchange rate to remain stable, although there are notable downside risks, with many anticipating a further weakening of the dollar in the medium term [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In a low-yield and low-volatility environment, investors are seeking alternative investment opportunities, with some asset management firms increasing their equity allocations for better returns [3] - The upcoming QDII quota issuance allows qualified investors to expand their investments in overseas securities, with attention on potential improvements to the interconnectivity mechanism during the upcoming Bond Connect anniversary summit [3] Group 4: Views on U.S. Interest Rates - There is a divergence in client views regarding U.S. fiscal risks, with some preferring tactical trading in the middle of the yield curve while others are increasing holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 20-year bonds, due to attractive yields [5] - Clients are considering hedging duration risk as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains below 4.3% [5]

德国财长：我们不能完全依赖美国，重要的是我们加强和多样化我们的贸易关系。 ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来 源： 内容来自半导体芯闻综合 。 美国取消了对中国芯片设计软件开发商和乙烷生产商的出口限制，这进一步表明中美贸易紧张局势 正在缓和，包括北京在稀土问题上做出让步。 "随着美国和中国继续遵守这项框架协议，我们将看到很多限制措施取消。回到二月/三月的现 状，"这位未获授权对媒体发言并拒绝透露姓名的消息人士表示。 西门子在一份声明中表示，在最近收到美国商务部关于不再对中国客户实施出口管制限制的通知 后，该公司已恢复对中国客户的销售和支持。 新思科技表示，公司于 7 月 2 日收到美国商务部工业与安全局来函，通知基于 2025 年 5 月 29 日收到的限制令所实施的对华出口管制措施现予以撤销，即时生效。公司正恢复近期受限产品在中 国市场的供应和全面客户支持。 Cadence也表示，美国已取消对中国芯片设计软件的出口限制，并正在恢复受影响客户对软件和技 术的访问。 据路透社看到的公司致员工的一封信显示，新思科技预计将在三个工作日内完成系统更新，以恢复 中国客户的访问和支持。 包括新思科技、Cadence设计系统公司和西门子在内的全球三大电子设计自动化 (EDA) 软件开发 ...

越南财政部长：将继续促进出口，扩大与其他国家"和谐和可持续"的贸易关系。 ...

农产品日报 2024 年 07 月 02 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13820 | 65 | 53,324 | 7010 | 193,529 | 2882 | | CF05合约 | 13805 | 60 | 945 | -342 | 8,232 | 222 | | CF09合约 | 13805 | 60 | 182,581 | -6222 | 560,465 | -2771 | | CY01合约 | 20085 | -75 | 2 | 2 | 79 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 20090 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | | CY09合约 | 20075 | 30 | 7387 | 5 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-7-2 板块品种多震荡，关注天气表现 油脂：美豆种植面积低于预期，但目前长势良好 蛋⽩粕：巴西贴水强劲，连粕盘面获成本支撑 ⽟⽶/淀粉：进口拍卖溢价成交，现货依旧坚挺 ⽣猪：惜售持续，关注后续降雨影响 橡㬵：商品低开高走，胶价午后拉升 合成橡㬵：盘面跟涨幅度有限 纸浆：基本面弱势不改，纸浆期货维持弱势运行 棉花：美棉新作植棉面积上修，郑棉涨势放缓 ⽩糖：缺乏利多，糖价继续上涨乏力 原⽊：市场回归基本面主导，远月合约震荡偏弱 【异动品种】 1、截至7.1日，24/25年度注册仓单10211张。 棉花观点：美棉新作植棉⾯积上修，郑棉涨势放缓 信息： 2、截至7.1日，郑棉09收于13745元/吨，环比+5元/吨。 逻辑：新棉方面，25/26年度中国棉花以及海外其它主产国如印度、巴西 产量均存增产预期。USDA发布6月底美棉实播面积报告，将美棉种植面积 相较3月底意向种植面积报告上调，同比降幅从12%下调至9.5%，若单产和 弃耕率沿用上个月预估数据，那么新年度美棉产量预计持平，本次报告偏 空，后续还需关注三季度产区天气和优良率表 ...

中美刚谈妥，特朗普态度变了，美议员要求调查中企，理由很可笑 这年头国际新闻比琼瑶剧还热闹，刚传出来中美达成谅解协议，白宫那头立马调转枪口又玩起了左右互搏。 美国商务部长卢特尼克最近放出风声，说什么"只要中国放开稀土限制，关税大棒马上收摊"。 就在两天前，一通备受瞩目的高层电话，似乎为紧张的中美关系踩下了一脚刹车。电话里，特朗普亲口确认坚持一个中国立场，还承诺解决留学生签证等问 题，态度显得颇为诚恳。双方约定，两天后，也就是6月9日，在伦敦举行新一轮高级别谈判。 为了给谈判铺路，中方拿出了满满的诚意，就是先把一份善意的姿态给备足了。 据悉，日前我国公布十项科技"突围"工程代表成果，其中一项和稀土有关，名为超高音速飞机所需要的稀土永磁电机系统。 这项新技术，简而言之，就是基于新的稀土附加产品技术，升级超高音速飞行器发动机系统，进而让超高音速飞行更具稳定和机动能力。 特朗普前两天还在社交媒体上敲锣打鼓，说自己搞定了"史上最大贸易突破"，转身就让商务部给中国手机企业上眼药，这操作活像街头卖艺的胸口碎大 石，既要掌声又要票钱。 故事的开局，一度让人看到了关系回暖的迹象。 对于我国基于稀土升级的军备技术更新迭代，美国明显 ...