Group 1: Market Overview - LME three-month copper price fell by $12.50 or 0.13%, closing at $9,621.50 per ton on June 4 [1][2] - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,500 tons or 1.74%, reaching a near one-year low of 141,350 tons [4] Group 2: Trade Developments - President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025 [3] - The U.S. Trade Representative's office sent a letter to trade partners reminding them of the upcoming deadline for trade negotiations [3] Group 3: Price Dynamics - COMEX copper price rose by 1.21% to $4.8925 per pound, with a premium over LME copper of $1,164.6 per ton [7] - LME tin led the gains among base metals, rising by $640 or 2.04%, closing at $32,018 per ton due to supply concerns [8]

Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic landscape last week lacked significant data guidance, with trade tensions once again dominating the market, leading to a somewhat chaotic situation [1][3] - COMEX gold and silver prices experienced declines of 2.17% and 1.68% respectively, while COMEX copper saw a decrease of 3.35% [2][4] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - COMEX gold and silver fluctuated within the range of $3269 to $3385 per ounce and $32.8 to $33.8 per ounce respectively, with gold prices down by 1.8% and silver by 1.7% [21][22] - The market's risk appetite fluctuated due to the back-and-forth nature of tariff expectations, with a rebound in precious metal prices following Trump's threats to impose 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum [4][21] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing uncertainties abroad and the supportive credit logic of the dollar [52] Group 2: Base Metals Market - COMEX copper prices showed a strong upward trend, primarily driven by concerns over potential tariffs on copper [5][6] - The copper concentrate TC weekly index was reported at -$43.80 per dry ton, indicating a stable market despite limited trading activity [8] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories decreased to 139,300 tons, reflecting a reduction in market arrivals and a general lack of significant supply increases [14] Group 3: Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 0.1 million ounces to 38.79 million ounces, while COMEX silver inventory decreased by about 690,000 ounces [36] - SPDR gold ETF holdings rose by 7.7 tons to 930 tons, indicating a shift in market positioning [41] - Non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 3,975 contracts, while short positions fell by 14,178 contracts, suggesting a cautious market sentiment [41][42]

铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 有色金属日报 2025-6-3 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价小幅冲高后回落，伦铜周跌 1.22%至 9497 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 77600 元/吨，端午 假期间特朗普威胁提高钢铁和铝关税导致美铜走强，贵金属和原油价格亦上涨，伦铜上涨 1.24%。产 业层面，上周三大交易所库存环比减少 0.2 万吨，其中上期所库存增加 0.7 至 10.6 万吨，LME 库存 减少 1.5 至 15.0 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.5 至 16.4 万吨。上海保税区库 ...

6月2日，现货黄金日内涨超2%，现报3357美元/盎司。 港股黄金股大涨。潼关黄金涨近17%，赤峰黄金涨超6%，中国黄金国际涨近5%。 全球贸易局势因特朗普政府的"钢铁关税"迅速升级，与此同时地缘政治风险也因俄乌冲突在急剧上升。 因地缘政治紧张局势，布伦特原油、WTI原油双双飙升约4%。 消息面上，俄乌方面，据央视新闻，乌克兰透露，6月1日当天对俄发起特别行动，用无人机摧毁了俄41 架战略轰炸机，俄罗斯主要机场中约34%的战略轰炸机遭到攻击。俄媒表示，乌方说法纯属谣言。 根据乌克兰通报，乌方无人机深入俄境4000多公里，同时对俄罗斯空天军四个战略轰炸机基地进行攻 击。如果该消息属实，那么按照俄罗斯军事博主的说法，此次袭击的规模和影响可以比作"俄罗斯珍珠 港事件"，俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中的急剧升级可能迫在眉睫。 关税方面，5月30日，美国总统特朗普表示将把进口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%。欧盟表示遗憾，并 准备反击。据美国媒体6月1日报道，美国商务部长卢特尼克称，尽管特朗普政府关税政策正在面临司法 纷争，但是美总统拥有其他可以实施关税的权力；即使关税政策被取消，美政府也会采取其他行动。 当地时间5月28日，美国 ...

英国央行行长贝利：目前我们面临的挑战是尚不清楚贸易局势的最终结果如何。 ...

瑞讯银行：全球经济增长预期改善，美元前景向好 穆迪：美国法院阻止加征关税，投资者可能保持观望 路透对经济学家的调查显示，印度央行预计将在6月6日进行连续第三次降息，并在8月再次降息以支持 经济。这一预测与前一次调查的结果大致相符。考虑到上一财年印度经济增长率从之前的超过9%骤降 至6.3%，加上当前通胀率低于印度央行4.0%的目标，这为印度央行提供了足够的空间来进行降息操 作。 高盛分析师称，在全球宏观不确定性上升、美债避险功能减弱的背景下，传统60/40投资组合面临更大 挑战。建议长期投资者增加黄金和原油的配置比例，以提升组合的抗风险能力和稳定性。其中，黄金因 其政策避险属性被重点推荐，而原油则作为有限度的供给冲击对冲工具。 凯投宏观分析师称，美国联邦法院否决了总统的全球关税，这给这些关税增加了"另一层"不确定性。这 意味着原本已经复杂的贸易局势变得更加不明朗。其他国家可能会选择等待，观察上级法院是否会推翻 当前的裁决。这种观望态度可能导致短期内国际贸易关系的停滞或延迟。 瑞讯银行分析师指出，随着全球经济增长预期的改善，投资者的信心有望增强。取消关税能够减少国际 贸易中的摩擦成本，促进跨国公司的运营效率，进 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced fluctuations on May 28, with the market focusing on the pressure within the trading range. The previous day's market was influenced by the U.S. market closure, leading to continued volatility due to changing tariff situations, which has pressured gold prices. The market now anticipates a potential agreement, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, resulting in significant capital withdrawal from the gold market [1] - Multiple bearish factors are contributing to the decline in gold prices. The strengthening U.S. dollar has created pressure on gold priced in dollars, with the dollar index rising against a basket of currencies, particularly a 1% increase against the yen [2] - The strong performance of global stock markets has diverted funds from gold. On the previous day, the Dow Jones surged by 740 points (1.78%), the S&P 500 rose by 2.05%, and the Nasdaq increased by 2.47%, with technology stocks leading the rally, attracting capital away from safe-haven assets [2] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted. The Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari called for maintaining stable interest rates until the impact of tariffs on inflation becomes clearer. This statement reinforced expectations that the Fed may pause interest rate hikes, which theoretically should support gold prices, but was overlooked in the current risk-on sentiment [2] - Recent economic data presents a mixed picture. The U.S. consumer confidence index unexpectedly jumped by 14.4% in May, exceeding economists' expectations, while April's core durable goods orders saw the largest decline in six months, indicating weakened business investment at the start of Q2. This contradictory economic signal suggests a delicate moment for the U.S. economy, with executives delaying capital projects until policies become clearer, although optimism prevails in the current market environment [2] Market Data - Current spot gold is priced around $3350 per ounce, while spot silver is at $33.50 per ounce [3] - The dollar index is currently in a fluctuating rebound phase, with a key resistance level at 100.00 [3] Trend Analysis - The silver market is currently in a price consolidation phase, suggesting a strategy of placing long positions near support and short positions near resistance [7] - Technical indicators for silver show that the K-line is operating near the lower boundary, with support at 32.05. The MACD indicates a downward trend, and market activity is decreasing, suggesting cautious trading and potential low-position long and high-position short strategies [7] Trading Strategy - A proposed trading strategy includes placing short positions around $33.35, with a stop-loss at $33.68 and take-profit targets between $34.00 and $34.60 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by overseas trade negotiations and the precious - metal's safe - haven property. Short - term supply disruptions may drive copper prices up, but mid - term economic weakening risks need attention [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventories, but the overall commodity atmosphere and overseas trade situation may cause fluctuations. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, and the inter - month spread may widen [3]. - For lead, the decline in scrap battery prices has led to a drop in lead prices. If scrap production cuts deepen, lead prices may fall further [4]. - Zinc has an excess supply expectation. With the increase in zinc ingot inventory, zinc prices face a certain downward risk in the medium term [6]. - Tin's supply is temporarily tight but is expected to ease. Weak demand may cause the tin price center to shift down [8]. - Nickel has high macro - uncertainty. Although the short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, the subsequent trend is still bearish, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices lack a reversal driver. High supply and inventory, along with falling overseas concentrate prices, may lead to a weak operation of lithium prices [11]. - Alumina has an overcapacity situation, and the price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short - sell lightly on rallies [14]. - Stainless steel is in a weak and oscillating pattern due to low terminal demand and cost support from raw materials [16]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Performance**: LME was closed, the dollar index declined slightly, and copper prices oscillated. The SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly, bonded - area inventory continued to decline, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased to 3.3 million tons [1]. - **Price and Spread**: The spot premium in Shanghai increased to 185 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread widened to 970 yuan/ton. The trading range for the SHFE copper main contract is 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9,500 - 9,700 US dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: LME was closed, domestic inventory declined, and affected by the overall commodity atmosphere, aluminum prices oscillated. The SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,170 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory and Position**: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract's open interest increased by 0.8 million hands to 52.6 million hands, and warehouse receipts decreased to 5.5 million tons. Aluminum ingot and rod social inventories continued to decline [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The spot premium in East China increased to 90 yuan/ton. The trading range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2,430 - 2,490 US dollars/ton [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The SHFE lead index fell 0.39% to 16,793 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory and Price**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 3.53 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 4.01 million tons. The refined - scrap spread was 50 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.16% to 22,177 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory and Export**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.18 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 7.88 million tons. In April, the export volume of unforged zinc alloys reached 1,280.23 tons [6]. - **Outlook**: Zinc ore has an excess expectation, and zinc prices may decline in the medium term [6]. Tin - **Supply**: The resumption of tin - mine production is slow. From January to April, domestic tin - ore imports decreased by 47.98% year - on - year. The supply of raw materials is tight in the short term [8]. - **Demand**: Downstream orders have not increased significantly, and only rigid - demand purchases are made [8]. - **Inventory and Price**: SMM's three - place inventory increased to 10,333 tons. The trading range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin, it is 30,000 - 35,000 US dollars/ton [8]. Nickel - **Macro and Supply - Demand**: Sino - US tariffs are temporarily eased, but the overall tax rate is still high. Refined nickel production is at a historical high, and stainless - steel market demand is weak [9]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Philippine laterite nickel - ore prices are stable, Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore prices are difficult to rise, and hydrometallurgical ore prices are stable after a decline [9]. - **Product Prices**: Nickel - iron prices are stable and rising, MHP prices are high in the short term, and nickel - sulfate prices are expected to strengthen. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the SHFE nickel main - contract price range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M of 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index fell 1.34%, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices declined. The LC2507 contract price fell 1.41% [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Supply remains high, downstream restocking expectations are not fulfilled, and domestic social inventory is at a historical high [11]. - **Outlook**: Lithium prices may operate weakly, and the trading range for the LC2507 contract is 59,400 - 60,800 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The alumina index fell 3.44% to 3,056 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 0.6 million hands [13]. - **Inventory and Price**: Spot prices in some regions increased, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.66 million tons. The Australian FOB price is stable, and the import profit and loss turned positive [13][14]. - **Strategy**: Short - selling lightly on rallies is recommended, with the domestic main - contract AO2509 trading range of 2,850 - 3,400 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,875 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The open interest decreased by 14,171 hands [16]. - **Inventory and Price**: Social inventory increased by 0.85%, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42%. Spot prices in some markets were stable, and raw - material prices changed slightly [16]. - **Outlook**: The stainless - steel market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper price may experience a short - term upward movement due to supply tightness and the relative strength of US copper, but there are risks of economic slowdown in the medium term [1]. - The aluminum price is supported by the continuous decline of inventories and is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, with the possibility of the inter - month spread further widening [3]. - For lead, if the reduction in recycled production leads to a greater decline in scrap prices, it may weaken the cost support and deepen the downward space for lead prices [4]. - Zinc prices still face a certain downward risk in the medium term as the social inventory of zinc ingots accumulates [6]. - The tin price may decline as the supply is expected to loosen and the demand is weak [7][8]. - Nickel has a slightly improved short - term fundamental situation but remains bearish in the long run, and it is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may run weakly [11]. - For alumina, it is recommended to lightly short at high prices as the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change [13]. - The stainless steel market is affected by cost support and supply - demand game, and it is difficult to show a trend in the short term [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, the LME copper rose 1.84% to $9614/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78390 yuan/ton [1]. - The total inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 20,000 tons, and the Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 11,000 tons [1]. - The spot import loss of copper expanded, and the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline [1]. - The SHFE copper main contract is expected to run in the range of 77,200 - 79,500 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M in the range of $9450 - 9750/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, the LME aluminum fell 0.74% to $2466/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,175 yuan/ton [3]. - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 24,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons [3]. - The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to run in the range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2420 - 2520/ton [3]. Lead - Last week, the SHFE lead index rose 1.07% to 16,859 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose to $1984.5/ton [4]. - The domestic social inventory of lead increased, and the LME lead inventory was 295,800 tons [4]. Zinc - Last week, the SHFE zinc index fell 0.20% to 22,213 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose to $2695/ton [6]. - In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloy reached 1280.23 tons, with a significant increase [6]. - The zinc concentrate port inventory continued to rise, and the zinc price has a downward risk in the medium term [6]. Tin - Last week, the tin market maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price continued to oscillate at a high level [7]. - The supply of tin ore is gradually recovering but slowly, and the demand has not increased significantly [7][8]. - The SHFE tin main contract is expected to run in the range of 260,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin in the range of $34,000 - 39,000/ton [8]. Nickel - Last week, the nickel price maintained a weak oscillation [9]. - The supply of refined nickel is at a historical high, and the demand from the stainless - steel market is weak [9]. - It is recommended to short at high prices, with the SHFE nickel main contract expected to run in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - On Friday, the MMLC of lithium carbonate decreased, and the futures price also declined [11]. - The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may run weakly [11]. - The reference operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2507 contract is 60,200 - 61,600 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On May 23, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.31% to 3165 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot prices in some regions increased, and the futures inventory decreased [13]. - It is recommended to lightly short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 expected to run in the range of 2850 - 3400 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,875 yuan/ton [15]. - The spot prices in some markets remained stable, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease [15]. - The market is affected by cost support and supply - demand game, and it is difficult to show a trend in the short term [15].

2025年4月份中国玉米进口量环比有所提升，但同比依旧处于低位。虽然本月贸易局势有较大幅度变 动，但对市场影响较低，进口玉米对国内玉米的影响依旧较弱。 海关数据显示，2025年4月份我国进口玉米约18.26万吨，总进口金额48723843美元，进口量环比上涨 125.82%，同比去年下跌84.51%，单价约266.86美元／吨，环比上月下跌4.17%，同比去年下跌1.29%。 截至2025年4月进口量累计约44.02万吨，同比下跌95.12%，累计进口金额118657227美元，同比下跌 95.40%，平均单价269.55元／美元，同比下跌5.58%。 2025年4月份进口玉米按贸易伙伴划分看，相对比较集中，但常规进口合作伙伴均有涉及。2025年4月进 口量最高的贸易合作伙伴是巴西，进口量14.85万吨，占比81.37%；其次是俄罗斯进口量1.25万吨，占 比6.84%；乌克兰进口量1.00万吨，占比5.48%。剩余货源来自缅甸、美国、智利。 进口价格层面，虽然2025年4月份进口量依旧较小，但主要进口合作伙伴的进口理论价格相比国内价格 已经具备优势。按照配额内关税计算2025年4月巴西玉米进口完税参考价格约 ...