Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a downward - centered and weak manner, and will be in a state of shock consolidation. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content For Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and individual ones after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase. [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock, hitting a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support. [3] - The finished products are expected to move in a shock - consolidated manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand. [3] For Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. The US CPI increased by 0.2% last month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the consumer price index decreased by 0.1% in March. The easing of trade tensions reduced the market's expectation of an economic recession. [2] - Last week, the total operating capacity of alumina enterprises decreased slightly by 80,000 tons/year. In the short - term, the operating capacity may fluctuate. The spot price may rebound slightly, but the cost - side support is weakening, and the price is expected to move in a shock in the short - term. [3] - Last week, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%. The aluminum cable operating rate increased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, while the national profile operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 57.5%. [3] - On May 12, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 601,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 35,000 tons from May 6. It is expected to break through the 600,000 - ton mark this Thursday. [3] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream operating rates, as well as macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release. [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant volatility in the gold market, with a notable drop in prices due to easing trade tensions and a shift in market sentiment towards riskier assets [1][3] - Gold prices experienced a dramatic decline, with a nearly 3% drop on a single day, marking the largest daily decline of the year [1] - The recent surge in the US dollar index, which rose by 1.5% to surpass the 101 mark, has further pressured gold prices by making it more expensive for overseas buyers [3] Group 2 - The articles discuss the contrasting market reactions, where gold prices surged by 8% to reach historical highs of $3500 during heightened trade tensions, but have since retreated as the situation has stabilized [3] - Analysts from UBS noted that when stock market returns can outpace gold's annual gains, a shift in capital away from defensive assets like gold is likely [3] - Goldman Sachs has revised its short-term gold price forecast down to $3150, while maintaining a year-end target of $3600, citing ongoing central bank gold purchases and the irreversible trend of debt monetization [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for quarterly copper prices due to the easing of trade tensions and a potential recovery in Chinese copper demand, which may continue to support copper prices in the coming months [1] Group 1 - The easing of trade tensions is expected to positively impact copper prices [1] - A recovery in Chinese copper demand is anticipated to further support price stability [1] - The forecast adjustment reflects a more optimistic outlook for the copper market in the near term [1]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market opened positively on May 2, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.74% to close at 22,504.68 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 3.08%, and the National Enterprises Index up by 1.92% [1][2]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks saw a significant increase, with Xiaomi Group rising over 6%, Alibaba and JD Group up more than 3%, and Kuaishou, Lenovo Group, Bilibili, and Tencent Holdings each gaining over 2% [2][3]. - New energy vehicle companies collectively surged, with Li Auto's stock increasing by over 7% [3]. - CXO concept stocks experienced a substantial rise, with WuXi AppTec gaining over 7% [3]. - New tea beverage stocks also performed well, with Nayuki's Tea rising by over 8% [3]. Company Updates - Xpeng Motors reported a year-on-year increase of 273% in new car deliveries for April, while Li Auto's new car deliveries grew by 31.6% [4]. - Xiaomi's automotive division delivered over 28,000 vehicles in April, with the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra model starting to be delivered [4]. Currency and Trade Insights - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate saw a significant increase, rising over 370 points to reach 7.24, the highest level since April 4 [4]. - China is currently evaluating trade negotiations with the United States, with indications of a marginal easing in trade tensions, leading to a release of market bullish sentiment [6]. Future Market Outlook - China Galaxy Securities suggests that investor risk appetite is gradually recovering, supported by positive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which may lead to stable earnings growth in the Hong Kong stock market [6]. - Guotai Junan Securities indicates that under increasing external pressures, domestic demand-related sectors may benefit from rising consumer policy expectations, predicting a short-term consolidation in the Hong Kong market with a gradual shift towards technology growth style investments [6].

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce indicated that the U.S. has actively communicated with China regarding potential talks, which has sparked optimism in the market [1] - Global stock markets saw a significant rise, with the FTSE China A50 index futures up 1.3%, the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.7%, and the Nikkei Index rising over 1% [1][33] - U.S. pre-market trading showed a collective rise in popular Chinese concept stocks, with XPeng Motors up over 6% and Alibaba up over 4% [1][15] Group 2 - Spot gold rebounded, surpassing $3,260 per ounce, indicating a positive trend in precious metals [2][22] - The offshore Chinese yuan strengthened significantly, rising 500 points against the U.S. dollar during the day [2][19] - The U.S. dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, with a decline of 0.5% reported [4][40] Group 3 - Major U.S. stock index futures showed slight gains, with the S&P 500 futures up 0.5% [8][35] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.74%, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising 3.08%, reflecting strong performance in tech stocks [17][18] - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, which is expected to influence investor sentiment [44]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB exchange rate has strengthened significantly, reaching its highest level since April 4, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions and positive consumer sentiment during the May Day holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Offshore RMB Exchange Rate - The offshore RMB against the USD rose by over 370 points, peaking at 7.24, the highest since April 4 [2]. - Analysts suggest that signs of easing trade tensions have led to a release of bullish market sentiment, contributing to a collective rebound in global markets [2]. Group 2: May Day Holiday Consumption - Consumption during the May Day holiday exceeded market expectations, with historical highs in transportation data. The national railway is expected to send 144 million passengers, a 4.9% increase year-on-year [3]. - The aviation sector anticipates a total of 10.75 million passengers over the five-day holiday, averaging 2.15 million per day, marking an 8% year-on-year increase [3]. - The influx of foreign tourists to China has surged, with inbound travel orders increasing by 173% during the holiday, driven by favorable policies and tax refund services [3][4]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet indicated that the bond market signals a need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with traders expecting a total cut of 100 basis points by the end of the year [5][6]. - The current two-year U.S. Treasury yield is 3.717%, below the federal funds rate of 4.33%, suggesting market pressure for a rate cut [5]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to influence market expectations regarding the Fed's rate decisions, with economists predicting a lower job growth figure compared to March [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a decline in gold prices due to easing trade tensions and a decrease in safe-haven demand, alongside a strengthening dollar impacting the attractiveness of gold as a safe asset [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold futures have plummeted as trade tensions ease and safe-haven demand diminishes [1] - A strong dollar has further dampened enthusiasm for gold as a safe asset, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for international buyers [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - There is optimism in the market regarding a potential trade agreement in the U.S., leading to increased risk appetite [1] - Following the release of a series of weak economic data, expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. have risen, as the economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter [1] - Lower interest rates typically stimulate demand for non-yielding gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced a significant drop, with a decline of over $50 on May 1, marking a continuous downward trend due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets amid easing international trade tensions [1][4][6]. Group 1: Recent Price Movements - On May 1, spot gold prices fell to $3240.62 per ounce, a decrease of 1.45% [1][2]. - The price of gold has been on a downward trajectory for three consecutive days, with notable declines of 0.81% and 0.85% on the preceding days [4][6]. - The recent peak of gold prices reached $3500 per ounce, but the market is now adjusting following this high [6][10]. Group 2: Market Influences - Analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets as trade tensions appear to be easing, with the U.S. government indicating potential trade agreements [4][10]. - U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer mentioned that preliminary trade agreements could be announced soon, which may lead to reduced tariffs on trade partners [5][9]. - The market sentiment has shifted from panic selling to cautious optimism due to the U.S. administration's willingness to engage in trade negotiations [10][11]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent data has raised concerns about the U.S. economy, with the first quarter showing a contraction for the first time since 2022, attributed to a surge in imports and reduced government spending [9][10]. - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including the personal consumption expenditure price index and the monthly non-farm payroll report [9][10]. - Despite the recent downturn, forecasts suggest that gold prices could rebound, with predictions of reaching $3590 per ounce by the end of the second quarter and $3800 by year-end [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the gold market are primarily influenced by the easing of trade tensions and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [3][4][7]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have stabilized around $3,312 per ounce, with a recent decline of nearly 1% due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets as trade tensions ease [1][3]. - The historical high for gold was reached at $3,500.05 per ounce, but the easing of trade tensions has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand, resulting in a price drop [3][7]. - Other precious metals, including silver, platinum, and palladium, have also experienced declines, reflecting a shift in market risk appetite and investor caution regarding the global economic outlook [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Investors are closely monitoring key U.S. economic data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the monthly non-farm payroll report, which will influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [4][8]. - Strong economic data may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates or adopt a tightening policy, exerting downward pressure on gold prices [4]. - Conversely, weak economic data could prompt the Federal Reserve to implement easing measures, providing support for gold prices [4][8]. Group 3: Trade Policy Implications - The Trump administration plans to reduce taxes on foreign parts used in U.S. manufactured cars and ensure that imported vehicles are not subject to multiple tariffs, potentially benefiting the U.S. automotive industry and alleviating trade friction concerns [5]. - The specifics of this policy adjustment and its market reactions will require further observation [5].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The market reacted negatively to the slow pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant drop in gold prices from a historical high of $3500 to a low of $3260, with a daily decline of 240 points [1] - On April 23, gold experienced a volatile trading session, initially opening lower by nearly 60 points but later recovering to reach a high of $3387 before closing at $3288, indicating strong selling pressure [3] - The expectation of further declines in gold prices is noted, with a potential drop of over 200 points anticipated by the end of the week, suggesting a bearish outlook for short-term trading strategies [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver opened at $32.45 but quickly fell to $32.07 before rebounding and entering an upward trend, demonstrating strong resilience and bullish sentiment [5] - During the U.S. trading session, silver surged past the critical resistance level of $33.00, reaching a daily high of $33.65, indicating a potential move towards $34.00 [5] - Short-term trading strategies for silver suggest focusing on selling during rebounds while considering buying on pullbacks, with key resistance at $34.00 and support at $33.00 [5]