Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate has become a focal point in the financial market amid significant global economic adjustments and geopolitical tensions in early 2026, with the offshore RMB/USD rate breaking the key 6.95 level, indicating strong market expectations for RMB appreciation [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. RMB Exchange Rate Trends in February 2026 - The overall trend of the RMB against the USD in February 2026 is characterized by strong fluctuations within a range, making sustained unilateral movements unlikely [2]. - On February 3, the offshore RMB surged past the 6.95 resistance level, with a daily increase exceeding 350 basis points, reaching a high of 6.93, igniting market expectations for RMB appreciation [2][3]. - The core drivers supporting the RMB's strength include steady domestic economic recovery and resilient foreign trade, with a trade surplus of $1.2 trillion in 2025 providing solid fundamental support [2][3]. 2. Factors Limiting RMB Appreciation - The short-term stabilization of the USD index and hawkish signals from the new Federal Reserve chair candidate have dampened expectations for aggressive monetary easing, indirectly limiting RMB appreciation [3]. - The lack of a sustained favorable interest rate differential between China and the US and potential geopolitical risks could also exert short-term pressure on the RMB [3]. 3. Core Volatility Range and Institutional Divergence - Financial institutions have differing forecasts for the RMB exchange rate, with a consensus range of 6.90-7.05. Goldman Sachs predicts a more optimistic outlook, suggesting the RMB could reach 6.85 or even below 6.80, driven by expectations of a weaker USD index and continued inflows into RMB assets [4][5]. - Domestic brokerages like CITIC Securities are more cautious, suggesting a range of 6.92-7.05, emphasizing the need for stable exchange rate policies to avoid rapid appreciation that could impact export enterprises [5]. 4. Internal and External Factors Driving Exchange Rate Logic - Internal factors such as trade surplus and economic recovery are crucial for RMB stability, with the trade surplus of $1.2 trillion in 2025 providing a safety net [7]. - External variables, particularly the USD index, play a significant role in short-term fluctuations, with recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve limiting RMB appreciation potential [8]. 5. Divergence in Predictions Between Foreign and Domestic Institutions - Foreign investment banks like Goldman Sachs focus on external factors, predicting RMB appreciation due to a weaker USD and global capital inflows, while domestic brokerages emphasize internal economic balance and the potential risks of rapid RMB appreciation [11]. 6. Strategies for Individuals and Enterprises - For individual investors, the strategy should focus on avoiding speculation and adapting to the exchange rate fluctuations, such as gradually exchanging currency when the RMB approaches 6.90 [13]. - Export and import enterprises should utilize hedging tools and diversify settlement currencies to mitigate risks associated with exchange rate volatility [15].

Core Viewpoint - Australia's merchandise trade surplus reached approximately AUD 3.373 billion (about RMB 16.338 billion) in December 2025, marking an increase of about AUD 776 million compared to the adjusted surplus in November [1] Group 1: Trade Data Summary - In December, Australia's merchandise exports increased by approximately 1% month-on-month, reaching about AUD 44.632 billion, while imports decreased by about 0.8% to approximately AUD 41.259 billion [1] - Rural goods exports rose by approximately 2.5% month-on-month to about AUD 7.108 billion, while non-rural goods exports increased by about 1% to approximately AUD 31.861 billion [1] - Non-monetary gold exports decreased by approximately 0.9% to about AUD 5.575 billion, while net exports of goods under merchanting remained unchanged at about AUD 89 million [1] Group 2: Economic Insights - After experiencing significant volatility, Australia's merchandise trade stabilized by the end of the year, with the trade surplus fluctuating between AUD 1 billion and AUD 6.4 billion throughout 2025 [2] - The export structure showed that exports to China reached their highest level in two years, while exports to the U.S. saw a slight increase, with gold making up a significant portion of the exports [2] - The basic trend of Australia's exports will depend on global demand for major commodities, which is expected to remain subdued, while rural goods exports may decline due to tightening domestic supply [2]

在进口方面，按商品类别统计，2025年印尼十大非油气进口品类中，电气机械及设备进口增幅最大，同 比增长17.22%；钢铁进口降幅最为明显，同比下降11.17%。(完) 数据显示，全年顺差主要由非油气贸易支撑。2025年，印尼非油气出口额达2698.4亿美元，其中制造业 对非油气出口增长的贡献率为10.77%。棕榈油及其衍生品、珠宝和贵金属制品、有机基础化学品、有 色金属冶炼产品，以及半导体和电子元器件等出口表现较为突出。 从出口市场看，中国仍为印尼最大的非油气出口目的地，美国位居第二，印度排名第三，三大市场合计 占印尼非油气出口总额的42.28%。从双边贸易结构看，2025年为印尼贡献贸易顺差最多的国家是美 国，其次为印度、菲律宾。 中新社雅加达2月2日电(记者李志全)印度尼西亚中央统计局2日公布数据显示，在非油气出口强劲增长 带动下，2025年，印尼贸易顺差达410.5亿美元，明显高于2024年的313.3亿美元。 印尼中央统计局副局长阿腾·哈托诺当天在新闻发布会上表示，2025年12月，印尼再次录得贸易顺差， 从而实现自2020年5月以来连续68个月保持贸易顺差。从全年看，2025年印尼出口额为2829. ...

2025年那会儿，欧美可没少折腾人民币升值这事。特朗普上台没多久，就开始挥舞关税大棒，2月先以 芬太尼啥的为由，对中国进口货加了10%的税，3月又来一轮同样的，4月还搞了个对等关税，总税率直 奔20%。 欧盟也没闲着，4月出一份经济报告，点名道姓说人民币该升值了，得平衡全球贸易啥的。国际货币基 金组织年中那报告里，也老提中国该让货币浮动大点。 华盛顿那些政客在国会里嚷嚷汇率操纵，华尔街分析师们写报告预测人民币得破7，搞得中国出口得下 滑10%以上。他们这思路，还带着点上世纪80年代对日本的味，以为升值就能让中国货贵了，工厂关 了，他们制造业就回来了。 可结果呢，中国贸易顺差不降反升，全年砸出1.19万亿美元的新高。在岸汇率从年初7.2左右，慢慢升到 年末6.98附近，升了4.4%。海关数据明明白白，前11个月顺差1.08万亿，全年1.19万亿。工厂订单没 少，出口到非美市场猛增，欧美那算盘落空了。 欧美施压汇率升，中国稳住基本盘 国际货币基金组织报告里，建议中国允许更大浮动，匹配经济实力啥的。他们觉得，中国外贸顺差太 大，得用升值压缩。结果中国没慌，人民银行每天设中间价，用逆周期因子稳住，避免大起大落。 汇率 ...

Core Viewpoint - In December 2025, China's international balance of payments for goods and services trade showed a significant scale of imports and exports, indicating robust trade activity and a notable surplus in goods trade [1] Group 1: Trade Data Summary - The total import and export scale of goods and services trade in December 2025 reached 52,808 billion yuan [1] - Goods trade exports amounted to 26,647 billion yuan, while imports were 18,114 billion yuan, resulting in a surplus of 8,533 billion yuan [1] - Service trade exports were 3,541 billion yuan, with imports at 4,507 billion yuan, leading to a deficit of 966 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Service Trade Breakdown - Major components of service trade included travel services with an import and export scale of 2,301 billion yuan, transportation services at 2,050 billion yuan, other commercial services at 1,491 billion yuan, and telecommunications, computer, and information services at 1,025 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Dollar Value Summary - In dollar terms, the exports of goods and services trade in December 2025 were valued at 4,276 million USD, while imports were 3,204 million USD, resulting in a surplus of 1,072 million USD [1]

新华财经纽约1月29日电（记者刘亚南）美国商务部29日发布的数据显示，由于出口下降和进口增加， 美国2025年11月商品和服务贸易逆差金额为568亿美元，环比大幅增加约95%。 数据显示，美国11月商品和服务出口金额为2921亿美元，环比下降3.6%；当月商品和服务进口金额为 3489亿美元，环比增加5%。 数据还显示，受贵金属出口下降带动，美国11月工业原材料出口减少61亿美元，消费品和其他商品出口 分别减少31亿美元和13亿美元。受制药原料进口增加影响，11月消费品进口增加92亿美元，资本货物和 其他商品进口分别增加74亿美元和19亿美元，工业原材料进口则减少24亿美元。 主要贸易伙伴中，美国当月与欧盟商品贸易逆差大幅增加82亿美元至145亿美元。 （文章来源：新华财经） 其中，11月份商品贸易逆差增加279亿美元至869亿美元，服务贸易顺差则增加3亿美元至301亿美元。 ...

尽管存在反对票，但官方表述并未释放出明确的宽松信号。政策声明继续强调经济活动保持稳健扩张，就业市场虽降温但并未恶化，通胀仍被描述为略高于 目标。这种措辞组合显示，多数决策者仍希望通过时间换取更多确定性，而非在数据尚未形成一致指向前贸然转向。FXTRADING分析认为，当前美联储 更像是在为未来政策转向做铺垫，而非立即启动行动，短期内政策不确定性主要体现在节奏而非方向。 加拿大央行维持中性立场 新西兰年末贸易回暖 新西兰12 月商品进出口规模同比均实现约 15% 的增长，使得当月录得约 5200 万新西兰元的贸易顺差，虽属温和水平，但明显优于市场此前的保守预期。 从结构上看，出口与进口同步扩张，反映出年末阶段无论是外部需求还是国内吸纳能力，均处于相对活跃状态。 从出口去向看，主要贸易伙伴贡献较为均衡。对澳大利亚和欧盟的出口增幅尤为突出，增速均达到两位数，显示区域贸易关系持续升温。与此同时，对美国 和日本的出口亦保持正增长，尽管幅度存在差异，但整体表明新西兰出口并未对单一市场形成过度依赖。进口方面，来自澳大利亚与欧盟的商品流入明显增 加，而来自美国的进口出现回落，在一定程度上缓和了进口扩张对贸易余额的挤压。FXT ...

Core Insights - Ghana's total export revenue reached a historic high of $31.1 billion in 2025, a significant increase from $19.1 billion in 2024 [2] - The trade surplus expanded to a record $13.6 billion, driven by strong performance in gold and cocoa exports [2] Export Performance - Gold exports surged from $10.3 billion in 2023 to $20 billion in 2025 [2] - Cocoa exports doubled from $1.9 billion to $3.8 billion, despite a decline in international cocoa prices [2] - Oil exports decreased from $3.8 billion to $2.6 billion due to falling international oil prices [2] - Other categories contributed approximately $3.6 billion to total exports [2] Import Dynamics - Total import expenditure for 2025 was $17.4 billion, with oil imports rising from $4.6 billion in 2024 to $5.1 billion [2] - Non-oil imports increased from $10.7 billion to $12.3 billion during the same period [2] Economic Indicators - Ghana's international reserves reached a record $13.8 billion by the end of 2025 [2] - The current account balance exceeded $900 million, reflecting a robust economic position [2] - The total economic output of Ghana reached $1.4 trillion [2]

在货物贸易领域，土耳其政府提出通过提升产品和市场多元化水平、加强战略贸易伙伴关系以及完善出 口融资体系，增强出口竞争力。相关政策还包括提升"土耳其品牌"国际能见度，以提高商品出口的稳定 性和抗风险能力。 新华财经伊斯坦布尔1月29日电（记者许万虎）土耳其近期提交欧盟委员会的《经济改革计划》显示， 到2028年该国贸易逆差将小幅扩大至1020亿美元，其中出口额预计达到3085亿美元，进口额为4105亿美 元。与2025年相比，出口和进口分别增长12.8%和12.3%，贸易逆差扩大约10.9%。 报告显示，服务贸易将继续在平衡外部收支中发挥重要作用。到2028年底，土耳其旅游收入预计增至 682亿美元，较2025年增长14.8%，带动服务贸易顺差扩大至753亿美元，同比增长18.9%。其中，交通 运输作为服务顺差的重要组成部分，将通过新增基础设施投资，提高对主要出口市场的通达效率，强化 其在全球供应链中的枢纽地位。 （文章来源：新华财经） 政策文件同时强调改善经常账户结构、降低对外部融资的依赖。土耳其计划重塑进出口银行业务模式， 减轻出口企业融资担保压力，并加快对接欧盟碳边境调节机制和本国排放交易体系，推动高碳行 ...

今年的【问诊2026中国经济】专题，观察者网将聚焦"十五五"开局年的各种机遇和挑战。专题的第二 篇，上海交通大学高级金融学院张春教授与我们分享了他的精彩看法。张春教授长期关注离岸人民币金 融体系，是该领域既具国际视野，又不断探索中国路径的金融学者。 关于人民币汇率问题，张春观察到，二十年前，大家对人民币升值非常敏感，主要是担忧出口企业受影 响，影响订单，影响就业。现在来讲，升值最大的好处就是：人民币值钱了，人民币的国际购买力增强 了，可以买更多东西了，进口更多东西了。这就意味着国家财富的增加、老百姓财富的增加。 "从这个角度来讲升值其实是一个好事情，"他解释说，"尤其现在中国经济要转到消费主导、消费驱动 的模式，老百姓有钱了、国家有钱了，就可以有更多的钱进行消费。所以这可能是当前人民币升值最大 的好处。" "所以中国人民币如果能够升值，让老百姓财富增加，我们可以进口更多外国的东西，贸易顺差相应就 可以降下来。这对中国的国际地位、国际形象会有更进一步的提升。我相信国家也看到了这一点。" 张春补充说，人民币升值还有一个好处，有利于减少高额贸易顺差带来的国际压力。今年的贸易顺差已 经超过1万亿美元，这是历史上没有哪 ...