他强调，"我们需要继续对通胀可能的黏性保持警惕，无论这种黏性来自关税、劳动力供给减少或增速放缓、服务价格粘性，还是其他任 何原因。" 穆萨莱姆是会前缄默期开始前最后一位发表讲话的美联储官员。 尽管由于政府关门，官员们无法获得部分关键的宏观数据，但近几周官员们的表态显示，短期借贷成本下调的概率很高。 【导读】 美联储穆萨利姆称可能支持再次降息，政策尚未预设 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚就简单关注一下美联储的消息吧。 圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆萨莱姆表示，他倾向于在本月底支持降息，但同时警告称，在通胀风险仍未完全明朗之际，美联储在放松 信贷成本方面不应走得太远。 在被问及下次议息会议是否应当降息时，他说："如果劳动力市场出现进一步风险、且通胀及其高于目标的持续性风险可控、并且通胀预 期仍将保持锚定，我可以支持再次下调政策利率的路径。"他在国际金融协会（IIF）年会上发表上述讲话。 穆萨莱姆谈及的是美联储将于10月28日至29日召开的下一次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议。市场普遍预计，继9月降息之后，官员 们将再降息25个基点，目前联邦基金利率目标区间为4%至4.25%。美联储降息旨在支撑走弱的就业市场 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 1 0 . 11 - 1 0 . 1 7 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 热点思考 高频跟踪 1、海外高频 | 关税不确定性再度上升 1、热点思考 | 美元的"十字路口"——"流动性笔记"系列之五 2、 热点思考 | 新旧力量交替期 3、热点思考 | 美方视角下的特朗普关税策略 2、数据点评 | 出口为何再"超预期"？ 3、国内高频 | 生产回落、出行走强 4、 数据点评 | 通胀"超预期"的三大线索 5 、 数据点评 | 为何M1增速"跳升"？——9月金融数据点评 电话会议 1、周见系列" 第52期: 《 经济的"成色"》 2、"洞见系列" 第96期: 《美元的"十字路口"》 第97期: 《六问美国政府"关门"》 3、速见系列" 第6期: 《每周热点》 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 美元的"十字路口"——"流动性笔记"系列之五 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.10.13 美元能否打破三季度以来的低位震荡格局、长期贬值预期能否继续演绎？ 2 热点思考 | 新旧力量交替期 点击看全文 热点思考 ...

分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马乐怡 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090010 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1.《中美贸易摩擦再升温——全球经济观察 第 15 期》 2025-10-11 2.《政府关门迫在眉睫——全球经济观察第 14 期》 2025-09-27 3.《美国零售仍有韧性——全球经济观察第 13 期》 2025-09-20 4.《初请失业金人数创新高——全球经济观 察第 12 期》 2025-09-13 5.《美国就业全面降温——全球经济观察第 11 期》 2025-09-06 证券研究报告 宏观周报 / 2025.10.18 核心观点 ❖ 全球资产价格：债市收益率普遍下行。股市方面，本周全球主要股市涨少 跌多。债市方面，海外主要市场债市收益率普遍下行，10 年期美债收益率下 行 3bp。商品方面，原油价格下跌，WTI 原油和布伦特原油本周分别下跌 7.3% 和 6.4%，本周伦敦金价上涨 5.8%。汇率方面，美元指数走弱 0.3%。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 美联储考虑停止缩表 ——全球经济观察第 ...

美联储内部就未来降息路径存在分歧，而最终决策将主要取决于美联储主席鲍威尔和理事沃勒。 追风交易台消息，10月17日美银证券发表研报，指出在当前美国政府停摆导致数据缺失的背景下，美联 储主席鲍威尔和理事沃勒的立场将对政策走向产生决定性影响。 鲍威尔作为美联储主席，不仅在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）拥有投票权，更掌握着政策讨论的主导 权和对外沟通的话语权。他的观点往往能左右整体政策基调。 沃勒的特殊性在于他公开承认正在"面试"美联储主席职位，这使其言论具有风向标意义。更重要的是， 沃勒在美联储内部被视为最具影响力的鸽派理事之一，其立场转变能够预示整体政策转向。 虽然两人目前都倾向于在10月和12月各降息25个基点，但如果通胀和就业数据保持坚挺，美联储可能在 12月选择"按兵不动"，这将是市场需要警惕的核心风险。 鲍威尔立场：倾向降息但高度依赖数据 鲍威尔本周重申了其鸽派转向立场。他指出： 自9月会议四周以来，就业和通胀前景似乎没有太大变化。 尽管鲍威尔承认9月会议后公布的GDP和支出数据强劲，但他并未对此给予太多权重，而是强调劳动力 市场的下行风险，认为职位空缺的进一步下降可能推高失业率。 美银报告分析认为，鲍 ...

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market rebounded, benefiting from strong tech stocks, rising expectations for interest rate cuts in October, and easing risk sentiment in bank stocks [2] - On October 17, all three major U.S. indices closed higher: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.52% to 46,190.61 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.53% to 6,664.01 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.52% to 22,679.97 points [2][3] - For the week, the Dow Jones rose 1.56%, the S&P 500 increased by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.14% [2] European Market Trends - European stock indices closed lower, with Germany's DAX down over 1.5%, France's CAC40 down 0.18%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.86% [3] Chinese Market Insights - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index initially dropped over 1.3% but later fluctuated and closed down 0.14% [3] - Specific stocks showed varied performance, with Pony.ai down over 5% and Futu Holdings up over 4% [3] Commodity Market Movements - International gold prices fell over 3%, with spot gold dropping to below $4,200 per ounce, closing down 1.73% at $4,251.448 per ounce [7][8] - The decline in gold prices led to significant drops in gold stocks, with Kinross Gold down over 9% and Barrick Gold down over 6% [7] Economic Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts noted that easing trade tensions boosted market sentiment, with confidence expressed in the ability of U.S. officials to resolve issues favorably [6] - The White House economic advisor indicated that the anticipated three interest rate cuts are just the beginning [9] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach is emphasized, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4%-4.25% during the upcoming FOMC meeting [10]

Welcome to the rap. I'm Marley Kaden here to take you through today's market action. Markets recovered from last Friday's selling to finish the week higher despite seeing elevated volatility.The Nasdaq and Russell both closed about 2 and a half% higher. The S&P added 1 and 3/4. The Dow tacked on 1 and a.5%.All 11 sectors saw green shoots as well. Communications was the big standout, rallying 2.6%. Real estate added 3.4% while tech closed more than 2% higher.And something else to note, gold's record run. Fut ...

昨天晚上刷手机，看到一条新闻差点让我从沙发上蹦起来——美联储主席鲍威尔宣布要停止缩表了！ 可能有朋友要问了，缩表听起来挺专业，跟咱们普通人有啥关系？ 更要命的是经济数据。2025年美国GDP增速预期才1.6%，失业率要升到4.5%。你品品这数字，经济明显疲软了啊！这时候还继续抽水，不是要把 美国经济往死里整吗？ 说实话，这消息来得有点猝不及防。要知道，过去三年美联储就像个狠心的管家，拿着大剪刀咔咔咔，硬生生把自己的资产负债表从9万亿美元 砍到了6.6万亿。现在突然说要停手，这背后到底发生了什么？ 打个比方吧，你可以把美联储想象成全球金融市场的"大水龙头"。以前疫情那会儿，为了救经济，这水龙头开得哗哗的，钱像自来水一样往外 流。结果呢？钱多了就不值钱了，通胀一路飙到6.2%，创了30年新高！ 到了2022年中，美联储一看不行啊，再这么下去美元都要变废纸了。于是开始"拧紧水龙头"，专业说法就叫缩表——把市面上流通的钱收回来， 让钱变得更值钱。 这招确实挺狠的。三年时间，硬是从市场上抽走了2.4万亿美元！ 好端端的，为啥突然就不抽了？ 要我说，鲍威尔这次是真的扛不住了。 你想啊，抽水抽得太猛会出啥问题？银行的钱不够 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a historic surge, with prices breaking through 4379 and potentially heading towards 4400 or even 4500, driven by multiple factors that enhance gold's appeal as an investment asset [2][3]. Group 1: Market Drivers - Global geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have amplified gold's status as a traditional "safe haven" asset, leading to increased demand for asset preservation [2]. - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar have made gold more attractive, as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold decreases [2]. - Despite a slight easing in global inflation, the absolute levels remain high, making gold a necessary tool for inflation hedging in asset allocation strategies [2]. - There has been a significant increase in both institutional and retail investors buying gold, with large institutions viewing it as a means to diversify risk and enhance portfolio returns [2][3]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - A long-term and substantial official demand from global central banks provides a stable buying force in the gold market, serving as a crucial engine for long-term price increases [3]. Group 3: Trading Platforms - The Lingsheng Global APP has consistently ranked at the top of gold trading app recommendations, becoming a preferred choice for many investors due to its comprehensive trading features and user-friendly interface [1][3]. - The platform emphasizes security, holding regulatory licenses from the Bahamas Securities Commission, ensuring investor confidence in fund safety [3]. - The APP offers a streamlined trading experience with quick registration, easy fund management, and real-time market responsiveness, allowing investors to capitalize on market opportunities swiftly [4][6]. Group 4: Trading Features - The Lingsheng Global APP provides expert live broadcasts for market analysis, helping investors make informed decisions and identify profitable trading opportunities [5]. - The platform supports both its proprietary APP and the globally popular MT5 software, ensuring fast execution of trades across multiple devices [6]. - The APP offers low spreads and various trading incentives, enhancing the overall trading experience and reducing costs for investors [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates again this month due to a weak labor market overshadowing inflation concerns, but this balance may not last long [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points on October 29, as indicated by Powell's warning about a worsening job market potentially leading to higher unemployment [1][2]. - Futures market traders anticipate another rate cut in December, aligning with the Fed officials' median forecast from last month [1]. - A significant number of Fed officials, 8 out of 19, predict no further rate cuts next year due to inflation remaining above target for 54 consecutive months and ongoing tariff pressures [1][3]. Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - Recent months have shown weak job growth, with early data being significantly revised down, challenging the perception of a strong labor market [2]. - Powell noted that a decline in job vacancies could likely lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a fragile balance in the labor market [2]. - The lack of large-scale layoffs suggests a low-recruitment, low-layoff economy, but the potential for rising unemployment remains a concern [2]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Inflation has been persistently high, with 54 months of being at or below target levels, raising concerns among Fed officials [3]. - The recent trade tensions and potential for increased tariffs add to inflation risks, influencing the cautious stance of several Fed officials regarding future rate cuts [3]. - The push for rate cuts has been primarily led by Fed governors who prioritize employment concerns, while some officials advocate for a more aggressive approach [3]. Group 4: Future Policy Uncertainty - Economic data is mixed, showing resilience in growth and consumer spending, while hiring has slowed down, complicating the Fed's decision-making [4]. - The upcoming end of Powell's term in May 2024 adds uncertainty to the policy outlook, with potential changes in leadership influencing future rate decisions [4]. - The balance of employment and inflation risks will ultimately shape the policy debate leading into 2026, possibly resulting in more cautious actions than currently anticipated by the market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Huw Pill, emphasizes that the pace of withdrawing monetary policy restrictions should be more cautious than in the past year to ensure inflation reliably returns to the 2% target [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Stance** - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) should adopt a more prudent pace for interest rate cuts from the current stage [1] - Pill previously voted against the decision to lower the benchmark interest rate to 4% [1] - **Inflation Outlook** - Pill expresses a more reassuring outlook on price pressures compared to earlier this year, but this improvement does not alter his cautious stance on the pace of policy adjustments [1]