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刚刚!降息25个基点
中国基金报· 2025-08-07 12:03
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 4.25% to 4%, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic challenges [4][16]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5 to 4 in favor of the rate cut, marking the first time in 28 years that a two-round vote was necessary to reach a decision [5][10]. - The decision reflects significant internal divisions within the Bank regarding how to address the dual challenges of slowing economic growth and rising inflation [7][10]. Economic Context - The UK economy is experiencing signs of weakness, with a reported loss of 185,000 jobs since the announcement of increased employer wage taxes and minimum wage by the Labour government [7]. - Despite a slight upward revision of the 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.25%, officials describe the overall economic situation as "still sluggish" [8]. Inflation Outlook - Inflation is expected to rise to 4% in September, higher than the previous forecast of 3.7%, driven by food price increases [7][16]. - The MPC remains vigilant about potential second-round inflation effects, particularly concerning wage pressures and consumer price inflation [7][16]. Future Monetary Policy - The MPC indicated that future rate cuts will depend on the progress made in reducing core inflation pressures [9][17]. - The market anticipates another rate cut by the end of the year, with projections suggesting a further decline to around 3.5% [9]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the UK stock market continued to decline, while the British pound appreciated [13].
美国Q2实际GDP年化季环比初值3%好于预期 PCE物价指数2.5%
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-30 13:29
Economic Growth - The U.S. economy rebounded significantly in Q2, with inflation-adjusted GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3%, reversing the -0.5% contraction in Q1 and exceeding market expectations of 2.6% [1][4] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending increased by 1.4% in Q2, slightly below the expected 1.5%, marking the slowest growth in two consecutive quarters [5] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in automobiles, showed signs of recovery, alongside improved service demand, driven by rising consumer confidence [6] Import and Export Dynamics - A significant decline in imports contributed to a 5 percentage point boost to GDP, a rare occurrence in economic history [5] - However, both business investment and exports experienced declines, indicating a weakening growth momentum amid high interest rates and slowing external demand [6] Inflation and PCE - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q2 showed an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, down from 3.5% but above the expected 2.3%, suggesting a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies [3][4] Real Estate and Inventory Impact - Residential investment fell at an annualized rate of 4.6%, the worst performance since 2022, as high interest rates deterred buyers and developers [7] - Inventory changes negatively impacted GDP by 3.17 percentage points, the largest drag since 2020, reflecting inventory buildup from earlier purchases being gradually cleared [8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite strong Q2 GDP growth, underlying concerns about cooling domestic demand, inflation rebound, and weak investment persist, raising questions about the sustainability of the recovery [10] - Analysts suggest that while the data appears strong, it may mask underlying issues, and upcoming reports on consumer spending, inflation, and employment will provide further insights into economic momentum [10]
银河期货:关注中美关税谈判进展 贵金属维持高位震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-28 07:06
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent trade agreement between the US and EU has alleviated market risk sentiment, while US macro data shows resilience, reducing concerns about the deterioration of the US economic fundamentals [1][2] - The US and EU have reached a trade agreement that includes a 15% tariff on certain goods, $600 billion in US investments, and zero tariffs from EU countries on US products, although there is ambiguity regarding the coverage of pharmaceuticals and steel/aluminum [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are under scrutiny, with a 97.4% probability of maintaining rates in July and a 62.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut by September, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][2] Group 2 - The market is expected to experience short-term pressure on precious metals due to the easing of risk sentiment and the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and policies, which may lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown [2] - Key upcoming events to monitor include the progress of US-China tariff negotiations, the Federal Reserve's meeting, and important US economic data releases such as non-farm payrolls and PCE [2]
美联储风波不断,贵金属高位震荡
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-26 08:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Amid ongoing Fed turmoil, precious metals are in high - level oscillations. The short - term market sentiment fluctuates, but the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies will lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown. The Fed's independence is also uncertain. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level oscillations, and there's no need to be overly pessimistic. It's recommended to focus on tariff negotiation progress and the Fed's July interest - rate meeting at the end of the month [5][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield first declined and then rose. Precious metals showed an inverse relationship, rising first and then falling. Silver was more resilient than gold. London gold traded between $3338 - $3439 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 0.02%. London silver reached a new high of $39.523 since September 2011, trading between $38 - $39.5, with a weekly gain of 1.88%. Affected by exchange rates, domestic precious metals underperformed overseas markets. Shanghai gold traded between 774 - 794 yuan, with a weekly decline of 2.46%. Shanghai silver traded between 9213 - 9526 yuan, with a weekly gain of 1.28%. The US dollar index hovered between 97 - 98, with a weekly decline of 0.85%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield ranged from 4.33% - 4.44%, remaining at a relatively high level [5] - Market trading was affected by Fed turmoil, trade negotiation progress, and US macro "hard" data. The Trump administration pressured the Fed, but the Treasury Secretary soothed market sentiment. Tariff negotiations accelerated, with a preliminary agreement reached between the US and Japan, while the game between the US and the EU continued. US macro data was generally strong, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year slightly adjusted downwards. Overall, there were more negative factors this week, limiting the upward trend of precious metals [5] - US macro data: The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in July was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9 [5] - US tariff progress: The EU passed a 93 - billion - euro counter - tariff plan against the US, to take effect on August 7 if no agreement is reached. India is confident of reaching a trade agreement with the US. Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, with a 15% tariff rate on Japan and $550 billion in Japanese investment in the US. Trump also said he would impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries, but is willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries open their markets to the US [5] 3.1.2 Trading Logic - As reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect, tariff negotiations between the US and other major economies have accelerated, easing market risk - aversion sentiment. The latest US employment and services PMI data show resilience, reducing market concerns about the deterioration of the US economic fundamentals. In the future, despite short - term market sentiment fluctuations, the benchmark scenario is inflation rebound and economic slowdown due to US tariff and policy uncertainties. The Fed's independence is also uncertain. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level oscillations [9] 3.1.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait for low - buying opportunities after a pullback [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Adopt the strategy of buying out - of - the - money call options [11] 3.2 Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.2.1 US Economy - GDP and Consumption - In 2024, the annual GDP growth rate reached 2.8%, better than expected. The consumption sector, accounting for two - thirds of the economy, continuously drove US GDP growth, with the service industry making a significant positive contribution. The investment sector also supported the economy [22] - In Q1 2025, affected by tariffs, the economy slowed down, recording - 0.3%, worse than the expected - 0.2%. This mainly reflected increased imports and reduced government spending (an 8% decline in defense spending) [23] - The latest data shows that US residents' pessimistic expectations have eased. The US retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.1% and the previous value of - 0.9%. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July was 61.8, higher than the expected 61.5 and the previous value of 60.7. The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation in July was 4.4%, lower than the expected 5% and the previous value of 5% [24][25] 3.2.2 US Economy - PMI Indicators - The two major PMI indicators in the US showed a divergence. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in July was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9. The US ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.8, higher than the expected 50.5 and the previous value of 49.9. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June was 49 [27] 3.2.3 US Economy - Employment - Employment data shows that the US job market is temporarily stable. The seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in June were 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The average hourly wage annual rate in June was 3.7%, lower than the expected 3.9%. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 [32] 3.2.4 Macroeconomic Factors - Inflation - In June, the overall US CPI annual rate rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, also in line with expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, slightly lower than the expected 3% but up from the previous month's 2.8%. The monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%. The overall US CPI data showed a moderate rebound. After the data release, market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year slightly adjusted downwards [36] 3.3 Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 ETF and CFTC Positions - The data shows the trends of gold and silver ETF positions and CFTC speculative net positions, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [39] 3.3.2 Gold - Supply and Demand - In 2024, according to the World Gold Council, the total gold supply increased slightly by 1% year - on - year to 4974 tons. Mine production reached 3661 tons, basically unchanged year - on - year. Recycled gold totaled 1370 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. Total gold demand was 4554 tons, a 1% year - on - year increase. Investment demand increased by 25% to 1180 tons, reaching a four - year high. Gold used in technology increased by 21 tons (+7%). Jewelry consumption hit a record low, only 1877 tons, a - 9% year - on - year decrease. Global central banks bought 1044.6 tons of gold in 2024, exceeding 1000 tons for the third consecutive year [42] - For 2025, the World Gold Council predicts that gold supply will increase again due to factors such as slowing global economic growth, high gold prices, and a slight decline in geopolitical risk premiums. Low interest rates, high - valued stocks, a weak US dollar, and geopolitical risks are favorable for gold ETF, over - the - counter, and futures investments. Central banks may again purchase over 1000 tons of gold. However, economic slowdown and high prices may pressure jewelry demand. Technology - related gold demand is expected to remain stable due to continued investment in artificial intelligence [42] 3.3.3 Central Bank Gold Purchases - Since 2022, global central banks have been on a gold - buying spree. In 2022, the purchase volume reached a record high of 1082 tons, 1037 tons in 2023, and 1045 tons in 2024. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India have been active buyers [52] - In Q3 2024, central bank gold - buying activities slowed down to 186 tons. In Q4, in an environment of falling gold prices and Trump's inauguration, global central banks bought 333 tons of gold, a 54% year - on - year and 79% quarter - on - quarter increase [52] - Reasons for central bank gold purchases: China aims to optimize foreign exchange reserve structure, hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, and promote RMB internationalization. Poland wants to prevent geopolitical risks and enhance financial security. Turkey uses gold to combat currency depreciation and inflation, reduce the risk of US dollar system sanctions, and as a hedging tool under low - interest - rate policies. India aims to optimize foreign exchange reserve structure and enhance international financial influence [52] 3.3.4 Silver - Supply and Demand - In 2024, according to the World Silver Association, the global silver supply was 31573 tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. Global silver demand was 36208 tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease. The demand mainly included 21166 tons for industrial use (6146 tons for photovoltaic use), 6491 tons for silver jewelry, 1686 tons for silverware, and 5938 tons for investment. The supply - demand gap was 4634 tons [54] - For 2025, the World Silver Association predicts that the supply will continue to grow by 2% to 32055 tons. Industrial silver demand is expected to change little, with photovoltaic silver use remaining at around 6000 tons. The supply - demand gap is expected to narrow to 3658 tons. The growth of the photovoltaic industry may be limited in 2025, and the trend of using less or no silver is emerging due to high silver prices [54] 3.3.5 Silver Inventory - Recently, the total visible silver inventory in major global exchanges, including LBMA, Comex, SHFE, and SGE, has rebounded from the historical low [61]
银河期货:关税阴霾未散 贵金属高位震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-25 07:06
Group 1 - The main focus is on the recent fluctuations in gold futures, with the Shanghai gold futures reporting a price of 776.50 yuan per gram, reflecting a decline of 0.98% [1] - The opening price for the day was 774.88 yuan per gram, with a recorded high of 779.24 yuan and a low of 774.32 yuan [1] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic developments include President Trump's announcement of potential tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on various countries, alongside ongoing negotiations with the EU for lower tariffs [2] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised, with 36 out of 50 economists expressing worries about its autonomy [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated a non-urgent approach to the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair, with Trump stating he will not dismiss Powell [2] Group 3 - The market's risk appetite has improved due to accelerating negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, with recent employment and services PMI data showing resilience in the U.S. economy [3] - Despite short-term market volatility, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and economic policies is expected to lead to inflationary pressures and economic slowdown, maintaining a high level of fluctuation in precious metals [3] - Key focus areas include the progress of tariff negotiations and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting at the end of the month [3]
美联储7月降息概率跌破95%,内部博弈与压力下的利率迷局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-23 04:18
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's independence and credibility are under unprecedented scrutiny, with the outcome of the current interest rate dilemma poised to significantly influence the global economy in the coming years [3][5][9] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The decision to maintain interest rates in July is seen as a precursor to potential rate cuts in September, with a 58% probability of a 25 basis point cut and only a 2.7% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by year-end [3][5] - The key variable influencing these decisions remains inflation trends, with upcoming economic indicators expected to provide further insights [3][5] Group 2: Political Pressure and Economic Reality - The debate surrounding interest rates is rooted in the conflict between economic signals of slowdown and political pressures from President Trump, who has publicly criticized Fed Chair Powell and suggested potential dismissal [7][9] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has advised a gradual adjustment strategy to balance the calls for rate cuts with the need for caution amid unclear economic data [7][9] Group 3: Diverging Views within the Fed - Fed officials are divided, with some warning of economic slowdown risks while others, like Williams, predict inflationary pressures [5][9] - Waller, a proponent of rate cuts, argues that current economic growth is closer to zero and presents three reasons for easing: tariffs causing one-time price increases, the need for a neutral monetary policy, and a precarious labor market [8][9] Group 4: Inflation Concerns - Concerns about inflation are rising, with recent CPI and PPI data indicating an increase, and core inflation reaching approximately 2.7% [9] - Waller's analysis suggests that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be overstated, while other analysts argue that the inflationary effects of tariffs are underestimated, indicating a potential rebound in inflation [9] Group 5: Future of the Fed - The race for the next Fed Chair has begun, with potential candidates including Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, current Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Christopher Waller, as Powell's term ends in May 2026 [7][9] - The CEOs of major Wall Street banks have publicly supported the Fed's independence, warning that political interference could undermine the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [9]
【黄金期货收评】美通胀韧性强弱成新焦点 沪金日内下跌0.08%
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-18 08:07
Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 777.02 yuan per gram on July 18, with a slight decrease of 0.08% and a trading volume of 221,277 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 771.7 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 5.32 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. retail sales for June increased by 0.6%, significantly above the expected 0.1%, while initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12 were reported at 221,000, lower than the expected 235,000 [1] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 2.6% [2] - In September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates steady is 46.9%, with a cumulative probability of 51.7% for a 25 basis point cut [2] Group 3 - According to Galaxy Futures, the strong U.S. retail data and resilient jobless claims have led to a rise in the dollar, putting slight pressure on precious metals [3] - The market is expected to maintain high volatility in precious metals due to uncertainties surrounding inflation rebound and potential delays in Fed rate cuts [3]
银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20250715
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 14:39
Group 1: Market Review - London gold is currently trading around $3360, and London silver around $38.25. Shanghai gold futures rose 0.25% to 780.4 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 0.52% to 9225 yuan/kg [3] - The US dollar index opened higher and then weakened, currently trading around 97.97 [4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuated slightly, currently around 4.415% [5] - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar oscillated at a high level, currently around 7.173 [6] Group 2: Important Information - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia, and the EU is preparing to impose counter - tariff on $72 billion of US goods [7] - Fed's Harker said there is no urgent need to cut interest rates, and Powell asked the Fed inspector general to review the renovation cost of the Fed building [7] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 94.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 5.2%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 60.0% [7] Group 3: Logical Analysis - As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, the tariff game has tightened. Due to tariff uncertainty, the Fed is taking a wait - and - see approach. The market is waiting for the US CPI data tonight. Silver is in short supply due to tax - increase expectations, and precious metals are expected to continue a strong trend [8][10] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, consider holding long positions based on the 5 - day moving average [11] - For arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [12][13] Group 5: Data Reference - There are multiple data charts including actual yield and precious metal trends, US dollar index and precious metal trends, internal and external futures trends, futures - spot trends, internal - external price differences, gold - silver ratio, ETF holdings, futures positions, futures inventories, trading volumes, TD data, and Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [14][16][21]
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250715
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 14:34
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various metals and minerals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors, including market reviews, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each product. It takes into account factors such as tariffs, supply and demand, and policy changes to evaluate the market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [3][7][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.36% at $3342.78/ounce, London silver down 0.72% at $38.11/ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index was almost flat at 98.035, 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.426%, and the RMB/USD exchange rate rose 0.03% to 7.1723 [3]. - **Important News**: Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine - Russia conflict agreement is reached in 50 days. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Fed officials' remarks and interest rate probability expectations were also reported [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, tariff games intensify. The Fed is in a wait - and - see mode. The market awaits US CPI data. Silver's spot supply is tight due to tax - increase expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.34% to 78020 yuan/ton, LME copper closed down 0.2% at $9643.5/ton. LME and Comex inventories increased [7]. - **Important News**: Multiple tariff - related events were reported. China's June copper imports showed mixed trends. SMM national copper inventory increased [8][9]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st. The US' siphoning of global refined copper is nearing an end. LME inventory bottomed out. The price difference structure will converge, and the market is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Night - session alumina 2509 contract rose 37 yuan to 3145 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [12]. - **Important News**: Central Finance Commission meeting emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, and production and inventory data [12][14]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production is increasing, but spot circulation is limited. The supply - demand pattern will gradually shift to a surplus, but warehouse receipt demand may support the market [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to fluctuate strongly for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell 30 yuan/ton to 20405 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [18][21]. - **Important News**: Aluminum ingot inventory increased. There were data on photovoltaic installation, aluminum exports, and financial and trade news [21][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Tariff negotiations are ongoing. Aluminum ingot inventory may have a narrow - range change. The decline in photovoltaic component production may be mitigated [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices may be under pressure in the short - term but not overly pessimistic for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 19800 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [28]. - **Important News**: There were data on production, cost, profit, and inventory of cast aluminum alloy [28][29]. - **Trading Logic**: Alloy ingot enterprises face raw material shortages, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow aluminum prices under pressure. Consider arbitrage within a certain price difference range; wait and see for options [30]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 0.2% to $2732.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2508 fell 0.27% to 22145 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [32]. - **Important News**: Domestic and LME zinc inventories increased [32]. - **Logical Analysis**: Zinc supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices may be under pressure [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell 0.98% to $2017/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.2% to 17070 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [36]. - **Important News**: Lead inventory increased, and the average operating rate of primary lead smelters decreased [36]. - **Logical Analysis**: Recycled lead is in a loss, and the supply is hard to increase. Demand is improving marginally [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level. High - selling and low - buying in the range for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell 170 to $15065/ton, inventory increased. Shanghai nickel fell 1310 to 119460 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [42]. - **Important News**: A Canadian nickel company's exploration results and battery production data were reported [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market is worried about US tariffs. Refined nickel has weak supply and demand in the off - season, and prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract rose 10 to 12695 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [44]. - **Important News**: A stainless steel factory's high - nickel pig iron transaction and a company's production achievement were reported [48]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless steel demand is not optimistic, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose [50]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on drones and polysilicon [50]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Industrial silicon production will decrease in July. Supply and demand may be balanced. Inventory has shifted, and the market is optimistic [50][52]. - **Strategy**: Short - term strength for single - side trading; stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy [53]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: Polysilicon futures rose 0.81% to 41765 yuan/ton. Spot prices declined [55]. - **Important News**: Silicon wafer and battery prices and US investigations were reported [55]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be passed on to downstream. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Reduce long positions [56][58]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions and participate in short - term trading. Stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy; wait and see for options [59]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 2380 to 66480 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A company obtained a mining license, and a cooperation agreement was signed [61][63]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns led to price increases. Demand is not weak in the off - season. Prices may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and decline in the long - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities; wait and see for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [64].
美元资产修复之后
Tebon Securities· 2025-06-30 11:30
Market Performance - Global stock markets showed a mixed performance in June, with the US indices collectively rising, led by the Nasdaq[4] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new historical highs, while the Dow Jones approached its historical peak[4] Economic Indicators - The US May PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while the core PCE index hit 2.7%, the highest since February 2025[4] - Consumer confidence in the US declined, with the Conference Board's index dropping to 100.4 in June, slightly above the market expectation of 100[4] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index weakened significantly, falling from above 110 at the beginning of the year to around 97 currently[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield, which peaked near 4.9% earlier in the year, has shown a trend of stabilization and decline[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times in the second half of the year has risen to nearly 60%[4] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected in September, October, and December, following recent comments from Fed officials[4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on undervalued large-cap stocks in manufacturing, consumption, and technology sectors, as small-cap stocks have seen significant gains recently[4] - The strong performance of established companies, such as Nike post-earnings, suggests potential for recovery in the sector[4] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[4]