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英国央行,重磅信号!
21世纪经济报道· 2025-03-21 02:37
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, reflecting the current economic uncertainties and the need for careful monitoring of both global and domestic economic developments [2][5]. Economic Conditions - The UK economy is facing stagnation, with January GDP unexpectedly contracting by 0.1% and manufacturing PMI dropping to a 14-month low of 46.9, indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector [3][11][12]. - Inflation unexpectedly rebounded, with January CPI rising to 3%, surpassing the previous month's 2.5% and exceeding market expectations, which raises concerns about the sustainability of continuous rate cuts [6][11]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Bank of England's decision to hold rates steady is influenced by rising inflation concerns, particularly due to a £100 billion fiscal expansion plan and potential cost pass-through from increased minimum wages and social security contributions [6][13]. - The central bank slightly raised its inflation forecast to 3.75%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that complicate the monetary policy landscape [6][15]. External Factors - The uncertainty stemming from Trump's tariff policies poses a significant threat to the UK economy, with potential tariffs on steel, aluminum, and other sectors that could impact a quarter of UK exports to the US [7][8][9]. - Analysts suggest that the Bank of England is waiting for more clarity on the impact of these tariffs before making further monetary policy decisions [9]. Future Outlook - The risk of stagflation is increasing, with expectations of "weak growth + high inflation" in 2025, necessitating a careful balance between curbing inflation and supporting economic growth [12][16]. - Market expectations indicate a likelihood of two additional rate cuts within the year, with a 77% probability of a cut in May and a 55.6% chance in August [15][16].