中邮证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：在特朗普宣布的8月1日对铜进口征加50%关税生效之前，全球主 要铜市场（伦敦、上海）等地约有40万吨库存被转移至美国，几乎占美国全年精炼铜需求的40%。这一 占比水平预示着，随着关税落地，美国将至少在短期内不会继续进口精炼铜。 以下为研究报告摘要： 摘要： 特朗普施压美联储加快降息，美联储内部对降息节奏产生分歧。近一段时期以来，特朗普及其内阁成员 等多位官员不断对鲍威尔施压，要求美联储尽快降低利率3个百分点，降至1%左右。近日，特朗普亲自 访问美联储，与鲍威尔进行会谈，并声称会谈效果很好，美国总统亲自访问美联储这一罕见行为引起市 场对美联储独立性的担忧。尽管在降息节奏问题上，议息会议成员内部之间仍面临分歧，多数成员都倾 向于观望经济走势和通胀数据，但在特朗普的压力和声称要解雇鲍威尔的威胁之下，美联储降息似乎只 是时间问题，而目前内部分歧为下一次议息会议增加了不确定性。在降息预期不断加强的背景下，金、 铜等金属的金融属性有望继续增强，下方支撑稳固。 美国铜关税导致全球铜库存转移，对美国以外市场产生冲击。在特朗普宣布的8月1日对铜进口征加50% 关税生效之前，全球主要铜市场（伦敦 ...

投资建议：降息预期存在不确定性，短期内铜价在美国关税影响下冲高，但伦敦、上海 等市场可能存在短期供给不足的冲击。建议关注有成长性和增长潜力的工业金属龙头，紫金 矿业（600988.SH）、洛阳钼业（603993.SH）、西部矿业（601168.SH）。 美联储降息预期对主要金属品种价格形成较强支撑，美国铜关税的生效落地短期内可能 对全球不同市场价格产生冲击。维持有色金属行业"推荐"评级。 特朗普施压美联储加快降息，美联储内部对降息节奏产生分歧。近一段时期以来，特朗 普及其内阁成员等多位官员不断对鲍威尔施压，要求美联储尽快降低利率3个百分点，降至 1%左右。近日，特朗普亲自访问美联储，与鲍威尔进行会谈，并声称会谈效果很好，美国 总统亲自访问美联储这一罕见行为引起市场对美联储独立性的担忧。尽管在降息节奏问题 上，议息会议成员内部之间仍面临分歧，多数成员都倾向于观望经济走势和通胀数据，但在 特朗普的压力和声称要解雇鲍威尔的威胁之下，美联储降息似乎只是时间问题，而目前内部 分歧为下一次议息会议增加了不确定性。在降息预期不断加强的背景下，金、铜等金属的金 融属性有望继续增强，下方支撑稳固。 美国铜关税导致全球铜库存转移 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The copper price is expected to face correction pressure, but there are still fundamental supporting factors, and the correction is still a buying opportunity [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper continued to trade below the trend line. Overnight, Chile hoped to exempt copper tariffs, leading to a sharp drop in US copper, and the COMEX - LME spread narrowed to 2542. As August 1 approaches, the market's attention to tariff details and implementation time has increased. The US - EU trade agreement boosted the US dollar and risk sentiment, with a neutral - weak impact on copper prices [10] - The spot copper showed resistance to decline, with the price dropping 50 to 79,025, and the spot premium rising 15 to 110. The near - month contract shifted to a slight contango structure. The LME 0 - 3 contango was 54.34. The LME market continued to be suppressed by US copper tariffs, but the overall intraday decline of Shanghai copper and London copper was limited, and the market was in a wait - and - see mood [10] - There are many macro - level events currently, such as the resumption of trade talks between Chinese and US senior officials, the end - of - month Fed interest - rate meeting, the end - of - month Chinese Politburo meeting, and US non - farm payroll data, increasing market uncertainty [10] 2. Industry News - Due to agricultural exports in Africa, the shipping industry has entered a peak congestion period, with ship bookings delayed until late August. There has been a certain degree of inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper at the Durban and Dar es Salaam ports [11] - Fuye Group plans to establish a subsidiary, Jiangxi Hefang Environmental Technology Co., Ltd., in Jiangxi Hengfeng Economic Development Zone to build a project with an annual production capacity of 180,000 tons of recycled electrolytic copper [11] - On July 28, Chilean Finance Minister Mario Marcel said that the 50% tariff on copper has a chance of being exempted [11]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is currently experiencing a weak trend due to seasonal demand slowdown, with a slight accumulation of social inventory, and is awaiting more definitive guidance as the August 1 deadline approaches [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The night trading session for copper opened slightly higher but fell back, closing down by 0.18% [1] - Domestic demand is currently weak, leading to a limited accumulation of social inventory [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are anticipated, with the market expecting the Fed to maintain its current stance [1] Group 2: Trade Developments - A trade framework agreement was reached between the U.S. and the EU, reducing market uncertainty [1] - Ongoing attention is required on the progress of U.S.-China negotiations [1] - There are rumors regarding the potential implementation of tariffs on imported copper by the U.S. on August 1, including possible exemptions [1] Group 3: Chilean Copper Tariffs - Chile's finance minister indicated expectations for U.S. copper tariff exemptions, leading to a significant drop in U.S. copper prices, which affected LME and Shanghai copper prices [1] - Chile accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. copper imports; if exemptions are granted, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper will narrow significantly [1] - Despite potential exemptions, U.S. copper prices are expected to remain higher than non-U.S. markets due to ongoing tariffs [1] Group 4: Processing Fees - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees are still operating at low levels, and the tight supply situation is unlikely to change in the short term [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the market is in a period of gaming over US copper tariffs, with a high bearish sentiment. Along with the correction after the cooling of the domestic commodity sentiment, the market trend is bearish. Short - term support is around 78,000 yuan/ton, and it is pressured by the 5 - day moving average above. - In the medium - to - long - term, after the raw material inventory of smelters is depleted, there may be an increase in maintenance of production capacity. The market is bullish in the medium - to - long - term, and there may be an oversold rebound after the sentiment is digested. The supply is loose in the short - term due to the tariff implementation and tight in the medium - to - long - term. The copper consumption structure may change due to trade uncertainties and the 50% US copper tariff, affecting the apparent copper consumption [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The market rumors of possible exemption of Chilean copper tariffs led to a sharp decline in US copper prices, while the impact on Shanghai and London copper was small. Sino - US economic and trade talks started in Stockholm, Sweden. - In the short - term, the supply is affected by the tariff implementation and is loose, but it is tight in the medium - to - long - term. After the copper tariff is implemented, more copper concentrates may be transferred to China. - Recently, with the decline in copper concentrate imports and high operating loads of domestic smelters, the inventory of refined copper concentrates has been continuously depleted. - The TC/RC fees are still negative but have stopped falling and stabilized. Smelters can currently rely on by - products such as sulfuric acid to make up for losses, and most smelters have raw material reserves, so the production enthusiasm is okay. The concentrated maintenance season is expected to be in the third quarter or after a significant depletion of raw material inventory [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened high, rose, and then fluctuated downward, closing at 78,840 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3,096 to 115,164 lots, and the short positions decreased by 930 to 115,790 lots. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 85 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 0 yuan/ton. On July 28, 2025, the LME official price was $9,830/ton, and the spot premium was - $47/ton [4]. Supply Side As of July 25, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $42.73/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.26 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 18,100 tons, an increase of 251 tons from the previous period. As of July 24, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 127,600 tons, a slight increase of 225 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 250,800 short tons, an increase of 2,184 short tons from the previous period [8].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the biggest risk from U.S. copper tariffs is the possibility of Trump reaching an agreement that allows a significant amount of tariff-free copper to enter the U.S. [1] Group 1: Tariff Implications - Goldman Sachs analysts, including Eoin Dinsmore, stated that agreements related to mineral diplomacy or tariff exemptions for specific assets deemed to have sufficient control by the U.S. pose an increasing risk to the expectation of comprehensive tariff imposition [1] - The analysts indicated that copper prices have not fully reflected the 50% tariff level due to high U.S. inventories and ongoing uncertainty regarding potential tariff exemptions [1]

智利财政部长：我们希望美国从周一开始的贸易谈判中纳入铜关税问题。 ...

2025 年 07 月 28 日 铜：国内库存减少，限制价格下跌 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 宏观方面，特朗普称与欧盟达协议可能五成，后改口称或可达成，预计多数协议 8 月前完成，加拿大在 最后期限前达成新协议的可能性不大。（华尔街见闻） 美国 6 月耐用品订单环比初值-9.3%，创疫情以来最大月度跌幅，飞机订单拖累。（华尔街见闻） 微观方面，盎格鲁亚洲矿业有限公司宣布，该公司旗下位于阿塞拜疆卡拉巴赫经济区的 Demirli 铜矿 开始试生产，预计产量将在今年年底前增加，2025 年铜精矿产量为 4,000 吨。（SMM） 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,250 | -0.80% | 78800 | -0.57% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,796 | -0.59% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持 ...

铜周报：国内政策推动铜价，关注铜关税落地 2025-7-28 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 供给端：铜矿供应持续偏紧，铜精矿加工费持续位于历史低位。截至7月25日，铜精矿进口粗炼费为-42.75美元/吨，铜精矿现货加 工费自5月初跌至-43美元后维持至今，供给端矿冶矛盾持续演绎。 需求端：上周（7月18日-7月24日）国内精铜杆企业开工率下降到69.37%，环比下降4.85个百分点，同比下降8.85个百分点。铜价 上涨后，下游消费在上周短暂回暖后又再度呈现疲弱，企业新增订单和提货量都有所减少，精铜杆企业的开工率出现下降。 库存：截至7月25日，上海期货交易所铜库存7.34万吨，周环比-13.17%，持续下探至历年低位。截止7月24日，国内铜社会库存 11.42万吨，周去库2.91万吨，环比-20.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The controversy within the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous metals market. The copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased this week, and the spot premium has strengthened. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, copper opened low and moved high with a strong intraday oscillation. Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July, causing the US dollar index to decline. As of July 11, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.32 cents per pound. Although the copper smelting processing fee is still negative, it has stopped falling and stabilized. The copper concentrate inventory has increased this period, and the expected tight supply of copper may improve. After the 232 copper tariff is implemented, the domestic copper inventory is expected to accumulate. The demand from downstream industries is weak overall, except for the bright refrigerator production and sales data. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and weakened intraday, closing at 77,840. The long positions of the top 20 were 103,634 lots, a decrease of 4,798 lots; the short positions were 102,315 lots, a decrease of 1,478 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China was 45 yuan per ton. On July 17, 2025, the LME official price was 9,620 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 34.5 dollars per ton [4] Supply Side - As of July 11, the latest data showed that the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.32 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous period. As of July 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, unchanged from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 122,200 tons, a slight increase of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 241,800 short tons, an increase of 2,379 short tons from the previous period [8]