2)价格因素：一方面治理层对银行息差保持合理水平的重视度有所提高。25Q1货币政策报告在"推动社 会综合融资成本下降"前置"降低银行负债成本"，今年5月利率调降，存款长端利率降幅大于贷款，预计 后续降息也将保持该组合。存贷款利率调降的组合效应对净息差没有负面的即期影响，净息差"政策 底"或已显现。 另一方面，长期限存款经过挂牌利率多次下调后再重新定价，成本的节约效果更为明显，预计三年期存 款最大降幅或在100bp以上。用定期存款存量成本与(存款挂牌利率+加点)差额比较各家银行存款成本改 善空间，如重庆、交行、江苏、南京等成本下的空间或较大。 资产端：收益率下降压力或明显好于2025年 1)贷款：重定价压力缓解(2025年5年期LPR降幅为10bp，较去年少降50bp)，叠加新发放贷款利率降幅趋 缓、存量贷款利率与新发放利率价差持续收窄，贷款利率后续降幅预计有限。 2)化债：债务置换后法定债务利率将明显低于隐性债务利率，相关资产收益率预计有所下降，测算对上 市银行净息差的拖累约为4bp。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，2025年负债成本改善力度明显加大，上半年负债成本下降 28bp(上年同期仅下降4b ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant improvement in the cost of liabilities for banks in 2025, with a notable decrease of 28 basis points (bp) in the first half of the year, compared to only 4 bp in the same period last year. This improvement is primarily driven by reductions in deposit and interbank liabilities costs, contributing 19 bp and 7 bp respectively [3][11]. - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to decline by approximately 5 bp in 2026, with the downward pressure on margins continuing to ease marginally, suggesting that some banks may stabilize their NIMs [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Liability Cost Improvement in 2025 - The first half of 2025 saw a significant reduction in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities, with the cost rate dropping to 1.70%, a decrease of 28 bp from 2024. This was supported by improvements in both deposit and interbank liability costs [11]. 2. Liability Side: Deposit Maturity and Repricing Benefits 1) **Term Structure**: The proportion of long-term deposits entering the repricing cycle has increased, with the share of deposits with a remaining maturity of 1-5 years declining by 1.5 percentage points (pct) to 22.6% by the end of Q2 2025. Some banks, such as those in Ningbo and Chongqing, experienced declines exceeding 10 pct [4]. 2) **Price Factors**: Regulatory focus on maintaining reasonable NIM levels has increased, with expectations of further interest rate cuts. The maximum reduction for three-year deposits could exceed 100 bp, indicating substantial room for cost improvement [5]. 3. Asset Side: Yield Pressure Expected to be Better than 2025 1) **Loans**: The repricing pressure on loans is expected to ease, with the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) declining by only 10 bp in 2025, significantly less than the 50 bp drop the previous year [6]. 2) **Debt Replacement**: The shift from high-interest to low-interest debt is anticipated to have a limited impact on net interest margins, estimated to drag down margins by about 4 bp [6]. 3) **Bond Maturity**: The widening gap between new bond issuance rates and existing bond yields is expected to exert downward pressure on investment yields, with an estimated drag of 6 bp on margins from the reallocation of bonds maturing within one year [6]. 4. NIM Projections - The report forecasts a 5 bp decline in NIM for 2026, with the downward trend continuing to converge. The asset yield is expected to decrease by 17 bp, while the cost of liabilities is projected to improve by 13 bp, with deposit costs improving by 17 bp [7][10].

Group 1 - The banking deposit market is experiencing a "polarized" situation, with some banks raising deposit rates while national banks are generally lowering them [1][2] - Hangzhou Bank has increased its 3-year fixed deposit rate for new funds to 1.9% for deposits starting at 200,000 yuan, while Jilin Bank has launched a similar product with a rate 25 basis points higher than its standard rate [3][5] - Despite some banks raising rates, the overall trend in the banking sector is a decline in deposit rates, with many small and medium-sized banks reducing rates significantly since October [1][9] Group 2 - The pressure to attract deposits is particularly acute for smaller banks, which are using rate increases as a strategy to compete with larger banks [7][9] - Many of the high-rate products are region-specific and have conditions such as "new funds" or "specific customers," with minimum deposit amounts ranging from 1,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan [7][9] - The overall trend indicates that while some banks are temporarily raising rates, many are still engaged in a broader trend of lowering rates, particularly for long-term deposits [11][12] Group 3 - The net interest margin for commercial banks is under pressure, with the current average at 1.42%, indicating a need for banks to manage costs and stabilize margins [14][15] - Banks are expected to continue reducing deposit costs, but the pace of rate cuts may slow as rates are already low [16] - The adjustment of deposit products reflects a shift towards more sustainable and refined banking operations, with banks focusing on asset-liability management and differentiated services [16][17]

Core Viewpoints - The banking sector is expected to return to a fundamental narrative in 2026, supported by policy financial tools and resilient asset expansion, with net interest margins likely stabilizing and improving due to the ongoing deposit repricing cycle [3][9] - The report highlights two main investment lines: high-quality small and medium-sized banks with solid fundamentals and state-owned large banks with good defensive value [3][9] Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Social Financing - In 2026, fiscal policy will remain key to stabilizing demand, with a stable growth rate of social financing expected between 8.3% and 9.0% [9][41] - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to remain at least at the 2025 level, with a focus on stimulating total demand and influencing the growth rate of bank asset expansion [26][41] - The government has introduced a new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan, which is expected to leverage a total investment scale of approximately 7 trillion yuan, with a significant portion of related loans anticipated to materialize in 2026 [26][41] Group 2: Net Interest Margin Outlook - The net interest margin for banks is expected to stabilize and improve in 2026, primarily driven by a significant reduction in liability costs, with a projected improvement of approximately 30 basis points [9][49] - The scale of deposits entering the repricing cycle in 2026 is estimated at around 112 trillion yuan, contributing approximately 17.5 basis points to the improvement in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities [47][49] - The report anticipates that the overall improvement in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities will be around 30 basis points, with a corresponding effect on net interest margins of approximately 27 basis points [49] Group 3: Non-Interest Income and Asset Quality - Growth in non-interest income is expected to return to normal levels, with a marginal decline in contributions from other non-interest income sources [9][45] - The overall asset quality is projected to remain stable, with a focus on the risks associated with individual loans and real estate loans, which are expected to be manageable [9][45] - The report indicates that corporate asset quality continues to improve, while risks in the real estate sector are expected to be controllable [9][45] Group 4: Capital and Refinancing Outlook - The capital adequacy ratios of commercial banks are expected to remain stable, with a slight decline due to fluctuations in bond market interest rates [9][45] - The successful capital injection into four major state-owned banks is anticipated to enhance their ability to manage risks and support credit issuance [9][45] - The report notes that the path for capital replenishment through external channels remains relatively blocked, particularly for small and medium-sized banks [9][45]

更值得关注的是，行业多年来的"起存金额越高、利率越高"的惯例被打破，工商银行100万元起存与20万 元起存的3年期大额存单利率均为1.55%，农业银行500万元与20万元起存的同期限产品利率同样也为 1.55%，高门槛对应的利率优势彻底消失。 事实上，长期限产品的退潮早有伏笔。自2024年起，部分银行已悄然收紧5年期大额存单额度，某股份制 银行相关人士曾向北京商报记者透露，"产品已停售许久，上架时间暂无明确通知"。 这场变局的背后，是银行净息差持续承压的现实困境。金融监管总局最新数据显示，2025年三季度，银行 净息差已跌至1.42%的低位，利润空间被持续压缩。 从两端来看，贷款端LPR（贷款市场报价利率）持续下行，企业与居民贷款利率不断走低，直接压缩了银 行的利息收入。而存款端，自2022年4月存款利率市场化调整机制建立以来，商业银行存款挂牌利率已经 历数轮下调，银行的负债成本压力进一步加大。双向挤压之下，银行不得不通过调整负债结构来缓解压 力。 北京商报讯（记者 孟凡霞 周义力）昔日凭借高利率、稳收益优势被誉为"揽储神器"的大额存单，如今正 逐渐褪去光环。长期限产品集体"断档"，利率优势逐步消解，高起存金 ...

来源：环球网 【环球网财经综合报道】临近年末，资本市场对银行板块的关注度显著升温，尤其是城商行与农商行， 正迎来一波机构调研的高峰。记者梳理Choice数据发现，截至12月3日，11月以来已有12家上市银行接 待了来自证券、基金、保险等领域的81家机构，调研次数高达195次，较10月份数据大幅攀升。在这场 密集的"摸底"行动中，分红计划的稳定性与净息差的未来走向，成为机构投资者最为关切的两大核心议 题。 调研热度飙升，优质区域性银行受青睐 Choice数据显示，自11月以来，机构对上市银行的调研热情显著增长。与10月份仅有7家银行获得40家 机构的58次调研相比，近期无论是调研银行数量还是参与机构数量均呈倍数级增长。 分红稳定性受关注，中期分红渐成新常态 随着A股上市银行2025年中期分红的陆续落地，后续的分红安排和比例也成为机构关注的焦点。本轮调 研中涉及的宁波银行、张家港行等均为首次实施中期分红。 息差企稳预期增强，银行多措并举应对挑战 在调研中，净息差的展望与应对措施是机构提问的重中之重。尽管行业整体净息差仍处于历史低位，但 多家受访银行对未来的走势表达了审慎乐观的态度。 兰州银行指出，虽然净息差短期仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The five-year large denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) have been collectively removed from the offerings of major state-owned banks in China, leaving only three-year products available, reflecting ongoing pressure on the banking sector's net interest margins [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Changes - Major state-owned banks, including ICBC, ABC, and BOC, have removed five-year large denomination CDs from their online platforms, with the focus now on three-year and shorter-term products [3][4]. - The interest rate for three-year large denomination CDs has decreased to approximately 1.55%, while one-year and two-year products have been reduced to 1.20% [3][4]. - The removal of five-year products is part of a broader trend in the banking industry, which has been experiencing a tightening of available quotas for large denomination CDs since last year [4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The interest rates for large denomination CDs have been on a downward trajectory, with the three-year rate dropping from 2.15% to 1.55% over the past year, a decline of 60 basis points [4]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42% as of the end of Q3 this year, showing a year-on-year decrease of 11 basis points, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability [7]. Group 3: Product Differentiation - There is a common misconception among depositors that the removal of five-year large denomination CDs means the closure of all five-year deposit options; however, regular five-year fixed deposits remain available with a lower entry threshold [5][6]. - The minimum deposit for five-year fixed deposits is only 50 yuan, contrasting sharply with the 200,000 yuan minimum for large denomination CDs, providing a stable option for those with limited funds [6]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - The adjustments in the offerings of large denomination CDs reflect banks' strategies to manage liabilities and control costs in a low-interest-rate environment [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that banks are responding to the pressures of maintaining net interest margins by reducing the availability of high-cost large denomination CDs and increasing entry barriers for these products [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in institutional research on local listed banks, particularly city and rural commercial banks, is driven by improving fundamental indicators, investment value, and market performance, with a generally optimistic outlook on net interest margins and dividend prospects [1][3]. Group 1: Institutional Research Activity - As of December 3, 12 listed banks have received 195 research visits from 81 institutions since November, a significant increase from October's 58 visits [1][2]. - The banks involved in this round of research are all regional institutions, including Ningbo Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and others [2]. - Year-to-date, 25 banks have been researched, with Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank leading in the number of visits, receiving 323 and 285 visits respectively [3]. Group 2: Outlook on Net Interest Margins - Institutions are focusing on dividend plans, net interest margin outlooks, and response measures during their research [4]. - Despite a historical low net interest margin of 1.42% as of Q3, many banks express optimism about future trends, citing potential stabilization [4][5]. - Banks are adjusting their asset-liability structures and reducing deposit rates to manage the pressure on net interest margins [5]. Group 3: Dividend Stability and Plans - The upcoming mid-term dividends for A-share listed banks in 2025 have become a focal point for institutions, with banks like Ningbo Bank and Zhangjiagang Bank implementing mid-term dividends for the first time [6]. - Several banks, including Suzhou Bank, maintain a stable cash dividend ratio of over 30%, indicating a commitment to providing consistent returns to shareholders [6]. - Banks are advised to balance their operational performance with dividend frequency, ensuring that dividend policies are aligned with profitability and capital adequacy [7].

2025.12. 03 本文字数：3068，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 岁末本是银行揽储旺季，但在净息差持续承压的背景下，银行业存款产品结构调整进入深水区。 记者近日发现，存款市场已进入差异化竞争阶段：一边是5年期大额存单正加速退出市场，部分国有 大行收缩长期高成本存款，推出更高起存门槛的大额存单；一边是中小银行差异化调整，逆势上调存 款利率。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，近期多家银行下架5年期定期存款产品，背后或暗含银行负债端久 期开始缩短的信号；此外，一般性存款增长波动加大、核心存款增长乏力等也难以为商业银行资产端 拉长久期提供较多支撑。然而，政府债供给期限以及银行提高收益的诉求下，银行客观存在拉长配债 久期的需求，因此如何兼顾收益与风险，将成为商业银行稳健发展的重要课题。 按照以往惯例，大额存单作为商业银行年底揽储的重磅产品，此时应是银行加大布局的旺季，但近期 5年期大额存单逐步退出市场成为显著趋势。 近日，六家国有大型商业银行对存款产品进行调整，集体下架五年期大额存单。目前仅剩三年期、二 年期、一年期、六个月等短期限大额存单产品供投资者选择。 以中国银行为例，"大额存单"栏目下仅剩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is experiencing a structural adjustment in deposit products as the net interest margin remains under pressure, leading to differentiated competition among banks [1][14]. Group 1: Changes in Deposit Products - The five-year large denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) are gradually exiting the market, with major state-owned banks collectively removing these products [2][5]. - Currently, only shorter-term CDs (one year, two years, three years, and six months) are available, with interest rates for three-year CDs at 1.55% and one-year/two-year CDs at 1.20% [2][11]. - Some banks have raised the minimum investment threshold for large CDs, with examples including a minimum of 100,000 yuan for certain products, while maintaining lower thresholds for others [6][12]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - There is a growing prevalence of interest rate inversion, where shorter-term deposits offer higher rates than longer-term ones, challenging traditional pricing logic [4][17]. - The average net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42% as of the end of Q3 2023, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11 basis points [17]. Group 3: Strategies of Different Banks - While large banks are reducing high-cost long-term deposits, smaller banks are increasing deposit rates to attract customers during the year-end savings season [14][15]. - For instance, Shengjing Bank has raised its one-year deposit rate to 1.65% and three-year rate to 1.8%, indicating a competitive strategy to enhance deposit attraction [15][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing pressure on net interest margins is expected to drive banks to continue lowering funding costs, with a trend towards reducing deposit interest rates likely to persist [17][18]. - Analysts suggest that banks will not only lower deposit rates but also adjust the structure of their deposit products to manage costs effectively [17].