Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is experiencing a structural adjustment in deposit products, with a notable trend of large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) being phased out, particularly the 5-year term, while some small and medium-sized banks are increasing deposit rates to attract customers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The deposit market has entered a phase of differentiated competition, with large banks reducing long-term high-cost deposits and raising the minimum investment thresholds for large CDs [1][7]. - Major state-owned banks have collectively removed 5-year CDs from their offerings, leaving only shorter-term products available for investors [2][3]. - The exit of 5-year CDs is not sudden; many banks have already stopped offering long-term deposits, indicating a shift in banks' liability management strategies [6][3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - There is a growing phenomenon of interest rate inversion, where shorter-term deposits offer higher rates than longer-term ones, challenging traditional pricing logic [5]. - The average net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased, with the latest data showing a net interest margin of 1.42%, down 11 basis points year-on-year [16][17]. - Some small and medium-sized banks are increasing deposit rates to enhance their competitiveness in attracting deposits, with examples showing rates as high as 1.9% for certain terms [15][16]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Large banks are implementing differentiated and tiered management for large CDs, with some products requiring a minimum investment of 1 million yuan, while still offering lower-threshold options [7][13]. - The adjustments reflect a broader industry trend where banks are using traditional deposit products as tools for customer relationship management, especially in a declining interest rate environment [14]. - The ongoing pressure to reduce funding costs will likely lead banks to continue lowering deposit rates, although the pace of such reductions may slow as rates approach their lower limits [17][16].

"昨天刚收到的通知，现在只有3年期大额存单了，广州所有网点5年期的都已经取消。"12月3日，某国 有大行网点客户经理在接受南都湾财社记者采访时直言。 五年期大额存单集体"隐身"？记者查询工商银行、农业银行等六大国有行APP及官网发现，曾是储户长 期理财首选的五年期大额存单已集体下架，仅剩的三年期产品利率普遍回落至1.55%左右，且不同产品 设置了20万元、100万元乃至500万元的分级准入门槛，部分热门额度已显示"售罄"。这一集体动作背 后，是银行业净息差持续收窄的行业性压力。 从额度紧张到彻底消失？ 六大国有行5年期大额存单集体下架 曾被银行业视为稳存揽储"压舱石"的大额存单，正迎来长期限产品的集中退场。 在利率市场化持续深化、银行净息差承压的行业背景下，南都湾财社记者近日登陆工商银行、农业银 行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行、邮储银行六大国有行官方APP查询核实，5年期大额存单已全面 从线上在售产品列表中"下架"，核心供给集中于3年期及以下期限。 具体来看，工商银行"大额存单"栏目下仅保留1个月、3个月、6个月、1年、2年、3年六个期限选项，其 中3年期产品年利率为1.55%，1年期、2年期产品利率统一降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs), once favored by banks and depositors, are gradually disappearing from the market due to a significant decline in interest rates and banks' efforts to manage liability costs amid ongoing pressure on net interest margins [3][12]. Group 1: Market Changes - Many major banks have removed five-year large-denomination CDs from their apps, with three-year and longer products also becoming scarce, leading to a notable drop in interest rates, often falling below 1.55% [5][6]. - The interest rates for large-denomination CDs have decreased significantly, with some banks offering rates that are now lower than those of regular fixed deposits, marking a rare occurrence of "inversion" [6][12]. - For instance, the highest interest rate for a three-year large-denomination CD at Bank of China is 1.55%, while a five-year regular fixed deposit offers 1.60% [6]. Group 2: Customer Segmentation - Banks are adopting more refined customer segmentation strategies, focusing on middle-aged and elderly depositors, offering exclusive "Plus version deposits" with slightly higher interest rates for clients over 55 with qualifying assets [7]. Group 3: Emergence of Secondary Market - A vibrant secondary market for transferring CDs is emerging, with many banks promoting "CD transfer zones" within their apps, where some products still offer annualized rates above 2% [8][9]. - The demand for high-yield CDs has led to a competitive environment where depositors actively seek out advantageous transfers, with some individuals reporting success in acquiring CDs with rates exceeding 3% [9][10]. Group 4: Future Trends - The trend of reducing long-term large-denomination CDs is expected to continue, driven by banks' need to manage funding costs and the anticipated further decline in market interest rates [12][14]. - Historical data shows that the issuance of large-denomination CDs surged in 2018 and 2019, but since 2021, rates have been on a downward trajectory, with the average rate for large-denomination CDs peaking at 4.178% in July 2019 [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs), once seen as a tool for attracting deposits, are gradually disappearing from the market, indicating a shift in banks' strategies to optimize their liability structures and stabilize net interest margins [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Disappearance of Long-term Large-denomination CDs - Major banks have removed 5-year large-denomination CDs from their offerings, with some still having 3-year CDs available, but these are often marked as "sold out" or "in short supply" [2][3]. - The interest rates for the remaining 3-year large-denomination CDs are concentrated between 1.5% and 1.8%, despite the general trend of rates being in the 1% range [2]. Impact on Banks' Liability Management - The reduction of high-cost long-term large-denomination CDs is a direct method for banks to optimize their liability structures and stabilize net interest margins, which are currently at historical lows [1][3]. - Data shows that most banks in the A-share market have experienced a decline in net interest margins, with state-owned banks seeing a decrease of around 15 basis points [3]. Adjustments in Deposit Structures - Some banks are also eliminating 3-year large-denomination CDs, leaving only shorter-term products available [3]. - A specific bank has announced the cancellation of its 5-year fixed deposit products and has lowered interest rates for other term deposits, indicating a broader trend among regional banks to adjust their deposit offerings [3][4]. Shift in Investment Preferences - Since the establishment of a market-oriented deposit rate adjustment mechanism in April 2022, major banks have reduced deposit rates multiple times, prompting depositors to consider diversifying their investments into lower-risk assets such as government bonds and wealth management products [5]. - A recent survey indicates a shift in consumer behavior, with a decrease in the percentage of residents preferring to save more and an increase in those looking to invest more [5]. Growth in Wealth Management Products - The scale of the banking wealth management market has seen significant growth, with a reported increase of 9.42% year-on-year, reaching a total of 32.13 trillion yuan by the end of the third quarter of 2025 [5]. - Projections for 2026 suggest that the wealth management scale could grow by at least 10%, potentially reaching around 38 trillion yuan [6].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the fiscal and monetary policies in China for the year 2026, focusing on the implications for the economy and financial markets. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026** - Fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a projected growth rate of approximately 1.9% in broad fiscal expenditure, despite a slight decline due to high base effects. Actual physical broad fiscal expenditure is anticipated to increase by over 1 trillion [1][4][3] 2. **Deficit and GDP Growth** - The narrow deficit rate is projected to remain around 4%, with nominal GDP growth needing to reach 4.9% to maintain this rate. The actual nominal GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 was about 4.1%, indicating potential discrepancies [3][4] 3. **Monetary Policy Goals** - The monetary policy for 2026 will focus on stabilizing growth, promoting inflation, and preventing risks. Expected actions include 1-2 interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [8][9][11] 4. **Banking Sector Challenges** - The net interest margin for banks has been under pressure, recorded at approximately 1.42% as of Q3 2025. Future stability in this margin is crucial for effective monetary policy transmission [15][17] 5. **Government Debt Management** - The management of local government debt is critical, with a focus on stabilizing the macro tax burden to ensure repayment capabilities. The macro tax burden is expected to slightly decline to 12.7% in 2026 [6][7] 6. **Investment Strategies** - Local government industrial guidance funds are shifting investment strategies from tax reductions to equity support, promoting a transition from land finance to equity finance [5][6] 7. **Yield Curve and Credit Premium** - A steep yield curve and positive credit premium are necessary to stabilize market expectations and enhance economic growth confidence. The 10-year government bond yield is expected to range between 1.7% and 2.0% in 2026 [2][19] 8. **Inflation and Economic Risks** - Key macroeconomic risks include inflation, liquidity flow, and regulatory policy changes. The CPI is projected to grow by 0.5% in 2025, with PPI showing a range of -0.5% to 1.0% [20] Other Important Insights 1. **Unified Market Construction** - The establishment of a unified market is essential for addressing issues related to chaotic local investment and overcapacity, which have been exacerbated by declining macro tax burdens [6] 2. **Liquidity Management** - The central bank has implemented various liquidity management tools, including open market operations, to ensure stable liquidity supply [10][11] 3. **Interest Rate Corridor Adjustments** - Changes in the interest rate corridor mechanism have been noted, with a focus on enhancing the central bank's policy rate influence [12][13] 4. **Loan and Bond Yield Relationship** - The average after-tax return on loans is currently aligned with the 10-year government bond yield, indicating limited room for further rate cuts without disrupting this balance [14] 5. **Future of Monetary Policy** - The monetary policy stance is expected to remain supportive, with potential adjustments to the 7-day reverse repurchase rate to facilitate further interest rate cuts [11][18] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the fiscal and monetary policy outlook for 2026, highlighting the anticipated challenges and strategies within the Chinese economy.

Group 1: Central Bank Policy Rates and Market Rates - The relationship between central bank policy rates and market rates focuses on two dimensions: OMO leading to funding rates and short-term government bond rates, and OMO influencing funding rates, short-term rates, and ten-year government bond yields. Since May, the DR001 funding rate has returned to fluctuate near the policy rate, indicating a stable funding environment ahead [1][17][19] - The MLF policy rate's role has been gradually diminished, with OMO rate plus an average of 70 basis points becoming the new anchor for ten-year government bond yields. Currently, the spread between ten-year government bonds and OMO is stable at around 40 basis points, which is slightly low compared to historical levels [1][19][20] Group 2: Commercial Banks' Asset and Liability Rates - The efficiency of the transmission of policy rates to deposit and loan rates has varied, leading to a continuous compression of banks' net interest margins. The central bank is enhancing the linkage between asset and liability rates to stabilize bank margins, with expectations that the pressure on net interest margins will ease in the future [2][20][26] - The decline in deposit rates has been slower compared to loan rates, with the average loan rate dropping by 2.38 percentage points since August 2019, while the average deposit rate has only decreased by 0.25 percentage points for demand deposits [2][20][21] Group 3: Relationships Among Different Asset Yields - There exists a relative relationship among various asset yields, such as deposit rates, loan rates, bond yields, and stock dividend yields. The average personal housing loan interest rate is currently around 3.1%, while the adjusted yield on 30-year government bonds is higher by approximately 20 basis points, indicating a favorable comparison for bonds over loans [3][28][29] - The downward adjustment of loan rates may face constraints due to the existing yield relationships, as the loan rates have remained relatively stable despite reductions in LPR and deposit rates [3][29] Group 4: Term and Risk Rate Relationships - The current level of term spreads is low, with expectations that the spreads will widen due to regulatory attitudes, stable funding conditions, and nominal GDP recovery. The credit spreads for short-term bonds are at historical lows, while mid to long-term bonds show slightly better value but with higher volatility [4][41][42] - The pricing of different risk rates is fundamentally a matter of credit spreads, which are influenced by liquidity premiums and credit risk premiums. The current credit spreads for various ratings are at low levels, indicating potential opportunities for investment [4][44][45] Group 5: Implications for Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The central bank's focus on maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships is crucial for macroeconomic balance and resource allocation. The recent emphasis on these relationships may lead to a more systematic and refined approach to monitoring and managing market rates [10][59] - The dynamics of the bond market are currently influenced by concerns over potential fund redemptions and the impact of new public offering regulations, which may limit the market's ability to respond positively to favorable economic indicators [9][60][61]

Core Points - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for six consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5% [2] - The central bank's decision to maintain the LPR is influenced by the pressure on banks' net interest margins, which are currently under downward pressure due to market interest rate reforms [2] - As of the end of Q3, the net interest margin for commercial banks is 1.42%, showing a decline of 10 basis points compared to the end of last year, indicating a trend of stabilization but still in a downward channel [2] - The growth rate of bank loans has slowed, with the proportion of RMB loans in social financing decreasing to 48.3%, while direct financing has increased to 44.4% [3] - Despite the decline in net interest margins, the absolute profit figures for banks remain substantial due to the growth in loan volumes and asset expansion, although the pace of asset expansion is also slowing [3] - The central bank is committed to stabilizing net interest margins and has implemented measures to ensure reasonable interest rate relationships across various financial products [4] - The current economic recovery is fragile, particularly in the real estate sector, which affects the stability of net interest margins, and the likelihood of interest rate cuts remains low [5] - Inflation data shows a slight increase, with the CPI rising 0.2% year-on-year, suggesting limited room for interest rate cuts in the near term [5] - The trend towards potential interest rate cuts remains a future consideration, contingent on stronger macroeconomic performance [6]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of small and medium-sized banks discontinuing long-term deposit products is highlighted, with the recent announcement from Meizhou Commercial Bank regarding the cessation of five-year fixed deposits and automatic renewal services marking a significant shift in the banking landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Discontinuation of Long-term Deposit Products - Meizhou Commercial Bank announced the discontinuation of its five-year fixed deposit product due to policy adjustments, affecting customers who can no longer benefit from automatic renewal services [2]. - Several small and medium-sized banks have also removed five-year fixed deposits from their offerings, with notable examples including the announcement from Tuyuqi Mengyin Village Bank, which explicitly stated the cancellation of five-year fixed deposits [7]. - A total of seven banks, including Meizhou Commercial Bank and Zhongguancun Bank, have removed five-year fixed deposits from their platforms, with some banks also discontinuing three-year fixed deposits [8]. Group 2: Interest Rate Adjustments - In response to pressure on net interest margins, many small and medium-sized banks have begun a new round of interest rate cuts, with significant reductions observed in deposit rates since October [9]. - For instance, Pingyang Pudong Village Bank reduced its three-year and five-year fixed deposit rates from 2.1% and 2.15% to 1.3% and 1.35%, respectively, marking a drop of 80 basis points [9]. - The overall trend indicates that small banks are aligning their deposit rates with larger banks, leading to a flattening of what were previously higher interest rates [10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The ongoing adjustments in deposit products and interest rates reflect the challenges faced by small and medium-sized banks in managing their funding costs while trying to attract deposits [10]. - Analysts suggest that the current low net interest margins may lead to further reductions in loan rates if the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is cut again, which would subsequently drive down deposit rates [11][12]. - The banking sector is under pressure to balance deposit attraction with cost management, especially as the year-end approaches and banks seek to optimize their funding structures [10].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year loans for the sixth consecutive month, reflecting a stable interest rate environment amid ongoing pressure on bank net interest margins [1][2]. Group 1: LPR and Interest Rates - The LPR remains unchanged due to the lack of adjustment in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which serves as the pricing anchor for the LPR [1]. - As of the end of Q3, the net interest margin of Chinese commercial banks stands at 1.42%, unchanged from the previous quarter, indicating a stabilization in the downward trend of interest margins [1]. - The recent trend of stabilizing interest margins is attributed to measures such as deposit rate reductions and improvements in the liability structure of banks [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory authorities are enhancing guidelines for financial institutions to stabilize loan pricing and curb irrational competition, aiming for sustainable banking operations [2]. - The PBOC's recent report emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships for macroeconomic balance and resource allocation [2]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC should use self-regulatory mechanisms and window guidance to ensure that loan and deposit rates reflect policy rate adjustments while maintaining risk pricing and interest margin stability [2]. Group 3: Financing Costs - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points [3]. - The PBOC is guiding localities to participate in pilot programs aimed at reducing comprehensive financing costs for enterprises, benefiting numerous small and medium-sized enterprises [3]. - The decline in financing costs for businesses and households indicates a relatively loose monetary condition and ample funding supply, meeting the effective financing needs of the real economy [3].

Core Viewpoint - Hangzhou United Rural Commercial Bank is facing significant challenges in its IPO process, primarily due to regulatory approvals and compliance issues, despite having met financial thresholds for listing [2][3][4]. Group 1: IPO Progress and Challenges - The bank's IPO is hindered by two main issues: the lack of approval from the Zhejiang provincial state-owned assets regulatory authority regarding the state-owned equity structure, and the need for listing approval and regulatory opinions from industry regulators [2][3]. - Since the second round of IPO guidance began in February 2023, the bank has experienced leadership changes, frequent penalties, and performance pressures, complicating its path to listing [2][3][4]. - The bank's total assets are approaching 600 billion yuan, making the IPO not just a financing tool but also a critical opportunity for modern corporate governance transformation [4]. Group 2: Leadership Changes and Compliance Issues - In April 2023, Lin Shiyi was appointed as the bank's chairman, following the resignation of the previous chairman, Zhang Hailin, which was seen as a pivotal move for the IPO process [4][5]. - Under Lin's leadership, the bank has faced multiple compliance issues, with significant fines imposed on both the bank and its affiliated rural banks for various violations, indicating internal control weaknesses [5][6][7]. Group 3: Financial Performance - As of the end of September 2025, the bank reported total assets of 596.12 billion yuan, a 6.8% increase from the beginning of the year, with total loans exceeding 380 billion yuan and deposits nearing 450 billion yuan [8]. - The bank's net interest margin has been declining, from 2.59% at the end of 2022 to 1.71% by the end of 2024, which is below the average of 1.73% for national rural commercial banks, reflecting pressure on asset yields [8][9]. - The bank achieved an operating income of 11.54 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of 4.62 billion yuan, up 6.04%, demonstrating resilience in profitability [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The new chairman's regulatory background and industry experience are seen as valuable assets for overcoming the challenges faced in the IPO journey [10]. - Balancing growth with quality and scale with efficiency remains a critical challenge for the bank moving forward [10].