1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Tin prices have risen passively, and there is still some pressure above [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 267,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.51%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.4% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concern about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4] 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5][6] 3.3 South China's View - The rise of tin prices on Monday was mainly due to the impact of anti - involution on the entire non - ferrous sector, but the fundamentals of tin itself have not changed. In the short term, considering the imminent outflow of Burmese ore and no sign of further improvement in tin downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [7] 3.4 Tin Futures and Spot Data 3.4.1 Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 267,250 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Tin continuous - one is 267,470 yuan/ton, also with no daily change. The Shanghai Tin continuous - three is 267,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME Tin 3M is 33,355 US dollars/ton, up 285 US dollars or 0.86%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.96, up 0.04 or 0.51% [8][9] 3.4.2 Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 267,200 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan or 0.26%. The 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or - 16.67%. The 40% tin concentrate is 253,500 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan or - 0.47%. The 60% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan or - 0.46%. The 60A solder bar in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 172,250 yuan/ton, down 1000 yuan or - 0.58%. The 63A solder bar in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 179,750 yuan/ton, down 1000 yuan or - 0.55%. The lead - free solder is 271,250 yuan/ton, down 1500 yuan or - 0.55% [16][17] 3.5 Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 16,228.79 yuan/ton, down 684.78 yuan or 4.41%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [19] 3.6 Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6817 tons, up 104 tons or 1.55%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4524 tons, up 122 tons or 2.77%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1412 tons, down 8 tons or - 0.56%. The total LME tin inventory is 1935 tons, down 100 tons or - 4.91% [23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the futures market for tin is experiencing a slight price increase, attributed to the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, although challenges remain due to seasonal rains, earthquakes, and low inventory levels [1] Group 2 - Short-term tin prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate, while the medium to long-term outlook remains uncertain [1]

【市场资讯】 7月7日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：锡注册仓单1445吨，注销仓单640吨，减少25吨；锡库存2085吨， 减少25吨。 7月4日沪锡期货库存录得7198.00吨，较上一交易日增加243.00吨。 数据显示，7月7日上海1#锡锭现货价格报价266800.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（263520.00元/吨） 升水3280.00元/吨。 （7月7日）今日全国锡价格一览表 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名:1#锡锭 ;牌号:Sn99.90 ; | 266850元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市场 | | 品名:1#锡锭 ;牌号:Sn99.90 ; | 267000元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市场 | | 品名:1#锡锭 ;牌号:Sn99.90 ; | 266800元/吨 | 市场价 | 广东省 | 广东南储有色现货市场 | 期货市场上看，7月7日收盘，沪锡期货主力合约报263520.00元/吨，跌幅2.03%，最高触及268100.00元/ 吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the price of tin will fluctuate with a bias towards strength. Tin ore supply remains tight, though long - term supply recovery is clear. Demand is mixed, with some sectors like photovoltaic showing weakness, while new energy vehicle consumption is strong. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased, and continuing claims reached the highest level in years. The US Q3 GDP had a quarterly contraction greater than expected, and consumer spending also declined. The conflict between Israel and Iran eased, reducing supply concerns. Market confidence in economic growth was insufficient, and the metal index fell. Tin ore supply remained tight, and the复产 rhythm of Burmese mines might slow. Supply recovery was clear in the long - term but uncertain in the short - term. On the demand side, photovoltaic tin strip orders declined, and overall demand was lackluster. [5] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Tin ore and scrap supply remained tight, inventory decreased, and the US dollar index dropped significantly. [7] - **Bearish Factors**: Consumption in electronics and automotive electronics was sluggish, and photovoltaic module production declined significantly. [7] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January - April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January - April, it was 103,700 tons. [9] - **Price and Basis**: This week, tin futures prices strengthened. The basis of Shanghai tin was 1,340 yuan/ton, and the premium increased. The LME tin premium was 96 US dollars/ton, and the discount strengthened. [12] - **Smelter Operating Rate**: As of last Friday, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped to 47.05%. Yunnan had some plants for maintenance and reduction, and Jiangxi's rate declined significantly, about 35 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. Future operating rates might remain low or decline. [15] - **Import Data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (about 6,518 metal tons), a 36.39% month - on - month and 59.84% year - on - year increase. From January - May, cumulative imports were 50,200 tons, a 36.51% year - on - year decrease. The increase in May was mainly due to Africa. [18] - **Production Data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month and 8.34% year - on - year decrease. From January - May, cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a 0.75% year - on - year decrease. In June, production is expected to be around 13,800 tons. [21] - **Import and Export Data**: In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, an 84.04% month - on - month and 225.9% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1,770 tons, an 8.19% month - on - month increase. Cumulative imports and exports from January - May were 9,584 tons, with a 38.48% year - on - year increase. [24] - **New Energy Vehicle Data**: In May, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a 35% and 36.9% year - on - year increase. From January - May, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a 45.2% and 44% year - on - year increase. [28] - **Solder Operating Rate**: In April, the solder operating rate was 76.7%, a 0.89% month - on - month increase and 2.7% year - on - year decrease. Large and medium - sized solder plants had an upward trend, while small ones were weak. [30] - **Inventory Data**: The latest LME tin inventory was 2,115 tons, the lowest in two years. As of the week of June 20, Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1.99% to 6,965 tons, the lowest in three months. [34] 3.4后市研判 - The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with a bias towards strength. [36]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to seasonal demand weakness and the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar, leading to a significant price drop at the end of May [1][2]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply side remains a key focus, with rumors of resumed tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region contributing to price declines. The International Tin Association reported that production in Wa has fully resumed since late April, with the first batch receiving export permits by the end of May [2][3]. - China's tin concentrate imports hit a near-record low in April, with the Democratic Republic of Congo surpassing Myanmar as the largest source of imports. The recovery of Myanmar's production is expected to take time to reach historical capacity levels [2][3]. - As of the end of May, processing fees for tin concentrate in Yunnan and Jiangxi have dropped to their lowest levels in five years, indicating tightening supply affecting smelting profits. The overall refined tin supply may tighten due to reduced imports and ongoing inventory consumption [2][3]. Demand Side Analysis - Despite some resilience in demand, the overall performance is mixed. The photovoltaic sector shows growth, while the semiconductor industry has seen production increases but faces weakening in end-product demand [3][4]. - The PVC sector is operating at high rates but is experiencing significant losses, and the real estate market remains sluggish, impacting demand for PVC and related products [3][4]. - Domestic tin social inventory continues to decline and is at historically low levels, with increased replenishment willingness observed as prices drop significantly [3][4]. Market Outlook - The outlook for June indicates that while short-term price stabilization may occur, uncertainties regarding tariffs and the anticipated recovery in supply, coupled with marginal demand declines, will likely exert downward pressure on tin prices [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have rebounded due to market corrections after a significant decline, despite ongoing supply constraints and uncertain recovery from Myanmar's tin mines [1][2] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Tin prices rose by 3.14%, closing at 257,940 yuan/ton, influenced by expectations of supply recovery from Myanmar, although these expectations remain unconfirmed [1] - Domestic supply of tin concentrate processing fees (TC) remains at historical lows, nearing smelter cost lines, which severely squeezes profit margins [1] - In May, China's refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month-on-month and 11.24% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply chain [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - The overall operating rate of domestic smelters has slightly declined due to ongoing supply chain constraints, with some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi planning maintenance shutdowns in June [1] - The tightening of tin concentrate and scrap supply continues to impose rigid constraints on production capacity [1] Group 3: Demand Trends - Demand remains stable, but future expectations are weak, with consumption growth in the tin end market driven by national policy support and product upgrades in the first four months of the year [1] - After a policy retreat in May, the photovoltaic market's consumption began to face pressure, while mid-year promotional activities are expected to boost demand in consumer electronics and new energy vehicles [1] - However, entering the traditional off-season in July and August, combined with high finished product inventories, may slow down the growth rate of tin terminal consumption [1] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Recent price declines have improved market sentiment for stocking up, although end customers maintain a cautious approach with general order situations [1] - Newhu Futures commented that while supply expectations have not yet materialized, the current situation remains tight, and low operating rates at smelters persist [2] - Domestic inventory has significantly decreased, while overseas stocks remain low, providing some short-term support for prices [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent significant decline in tin prices, with macroeconomic factors indicating a slowdown in US economic growth and prolonged maintenance of current interest rates by the Federal Reserve [1] - Domestic policies promoting equipment upgrades and old-for-new exchanges are boosting demand for non-ferrous metals in manufacturing and consumption sectors [1] Group 2: Supply and Import Dynamics - Myanmar accounts for approximately 30.38% of China's tin ore imports, with imported tin ore constituting 47% of domestic supply [1] - In April 2025, China's tin ore imports were 0.98 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 18.48% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.22% [1] - Cumulative tin ore imports from January to April 2025 totaled 3.67 million tons, a significant year-on-year decline of 47.98% [1] - The ban on tin mining in Myanmar since August 2023 has led to persistently low import volumes, exacerbated by unstable import profitability and regional conflicts [1] Group 3: Processing and Refining Impact - Tight supply of tin ore has resulted in a 40% drop in processing fees, with Yunnan's tin concentrate processing fees falling from 17,000 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton [1] - Processing fees are now near the cost line for some enterprises, leading to production cuts [1] - As of May 23, 2025, the operating rate of tin refining plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 56.44%, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points from the previous week [2] Group 4: Demand and Industry Trends - Tin solder demand accounts for 68% of the market, with the semiconductor sector representing 80% of tin solder demand [2] - In April 2025, domestic tin solder enterprises had an operating rate of 76.7%, a slight increase of 0.9 percentage points from March but below market expectations [2] - Global semiconductor sales increased by 18.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with an expected annual growth of 11%, potentially driving global tin demand up by 4.4% [2] Group 5: Inventory and Price Outlook - Domestic tin market is entering a destocking phase, with Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory at 8,445 tons, a decrease of 28 tons from the previous week [3] - LME tin inventory also decreased by 70 tons to 2,665 tons [3] - Despite seasonal demand weakness, semiconductor industry growth provides some support for the tin market [3] - Current prices are approaching tariff and cost lows, with potential for strategic buying below 258,000 yuan/ton, targeting mid-term and long-term prices of 290,000 yuan/ton and 330,000 yuan/ton respectively [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a tug-of-war between current supply tightness and future supply expectations, limiting upward price movement [1] - The main supply issue is characterized by a tight domestic tin mining situation, with smelting plant operating rates remaining low at 56.85% in key provinces [1] - Demand is showing signs of weakness, particularly among small and medium enterprises, with pessimistic expectations for future demand due to tariffs and semiconductor cycles [1] Group 2 - Overall consumption lacks momentum, but basic consumption remains stable, with some recovery in exports of terminal goods [2] - The domestic tin supply remains tight, with expectations for increased imports due to overseas restarts [2] - The macroeconomic impact is diminishing, and the fundamental market lacks strong drivers, suggesting that short-term tin prices may experience fluctuations and adjustments [2]

Group 1 - During the May Day holiday, the international metal market showed a low-to-high trend, with overall fluctuations being minor compared to the pre-holiday closing prices. Specifically, the price of tin on the London market decreased by 1.48% compared to the pre-holiday period [1] - The domestic tin market was inactive during the May Day holiday, with market participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The downstream processing enterprises had a weaker purchasing intention before the holiday, primarily focusing on essential purchases [2] - In April, China's refined tin production saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.52% and a year-on-year decline of 8.13%, attributed to a tightening supply chain of tin concentrate and scrap tin, which imposed rigid constraints on production capacity [1] Group 2 - The supply pressure of tin mines in May remains challenging, with global inventories continuing to decrease, providing support for tin prices. However, the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to increase supply, potentially limiting the upward price movement [1] - Some tin processing enterprises have gradually resumed production after May 3, starting to fulfill post-holiday orders. These enterprises had previously stocked up on sufficient inventory at lower prices, leading to a cautious approach towards replenishing stock based on market conditions and order situations [2] - The current market commentary suggests that while raw material supply is tight, consumption expectations have been revised downwards, indicating that the corrected supply-demand balance is not significantly imbalanced, and prices may continue to fluctuate widely [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, tin prices fluctuated extremely in the first half - month and then narrowed in the second half - month. The market focus has shifted to demand. The tin market is treated as a rebound, with strong resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. The medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply easing and consumption concerns, and short - selling is the main strategy. In May, tin prices will mainly complete the right - shoulder shock pattern, with obvious resistance above and a possible downward shift in the lower trading low [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information 1.1 Tin Concentrate Supply - Myanmar's Wa State promotes the resumption of production at the Manxiang Mine. The new mining license fee standard has increased significantly, which may put pressure on low - altitude mines and small and medium - sized concentrators, while large enterprises have an advantage [1]. - Alphamin's Bisie mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has resumed tin production, which accounts for about 6% of the world's annual tin production [2]. - Xingye Yinxi's wholly - owned subsidiary, Yinman Mining, resumed production on April 16 after a safety accident in March [2]. - Malaysia Smelting Corporation (MSC) temporarily suspended production due to a gas pipeline explosion on April 1. In 2024, its refined tin output was 16,300 tons, and this event may cause delays in tin metal delivery [3]. - In March 2025, China's tin ore imports remained at a low level. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 8,322.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. From January to March, the cumulative import volume was 26,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 55% [4]. 1.2 Refined Tin Production and Import - Export Trends - In March, Mysteel's survey of 20 domestic tin smelters showed that the refined tin output was 14,590 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.96%. From January to March, the cumulative output was 43,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.7%. In April, the planned output is expected to be 14,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% [5]. - In March, Indonesia's tin ingot exports returned to the high - level range of last year, with 5,780.14 tons exported, a year - on - year increase of 49.8% [5]. - In March, China's tin ingot imports increased, exports decreased, and net imports turned positive. The import volume of unforged non - alloy tin was 2,094 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.02% and a year - on - year increase of 145.67%. The export volume was 1,673 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.51% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%. In March, the net import of refined tin was 421 tons, and the cumulative net import in the first quarter was 119 tons [6]. - In the first quarter, Yunnan Tin Company's net profit was 499 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 53.08%. It is expected to produce 90,000 tons of tin products, 125,000 tons of copper products, 131,600 tons of zinc products, and 102.3 tons of indium ingots in 2025, with a budgeted operating income of 46.5 billion yuan [6]. 1.3 Consumption and Balance - The Yunnan Provincial Grain and Material Reserves Bureau and Yunnan Tin Group signed a tin and indium metal reserve agreement to jointly promote the establishment of a "Yunnan model" for non - ferrous metal reserves [7]. - According to WBMS, in February 2025, the global refined tin supply had a surplus of 1,100 tons. From January to February, there was a supply shortage of 2,500 tons. In February, the global tin ore output was 25,600 tons, and from January to February, it was 51,200 tons [8]. 2. Weekly Report Trends 2.1 April 7 - **Price Trend**: After the earthquake in Myanmar, the Wa State postponed the early - April resumption investment conference. Driven by funds, the tin market rose, with LME tin reaching a maximum of $38,395 and SHFE tin weighted index hitting 299,700 yuan. However, affected by the US - China tariff risk, LME tin gave back all its gains and closed at $35,000 [9]. - **Upstream Supply**: Malaysia Smelting Group suspended production due to a gas pipeline accident. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was concentrated at 11,000 yuan/ton, and smelters' raw material inventories were at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production schedule of domestic smelters in April and the resumption news from the Wa State [9]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Due to the high price, point - pricing by tin - related downstream enterprises above 290,000 yuan basically stopped. Domestic SMM tin social inventory increased to 12,000 tons, while LME tin inventory dropped to 2,990 tons. The risk of a short squeeze increased, but it was difficult in the short term [9]. - **Outlook**: The global tin market has many supply - related topics, but current consumption is average. It is recommended that downstream enterprises conduct point - pricing below 270,000 yuan. Tin prices are still in a high - level volatile state, and the trend depends on supply changes [10]. 2.2 April 14 - **Price Trend**: In the past two weeks, tin prices fluctuated greatly. Affected by the US - China tariff and Alphamin's resumption of production, LME tin dropped to a minimum of $28,900, and SHFE tin weighted index fell to 236,000 yuan. Then, due to tight domestic tin resources and tariff game, prices rebounded quickly, and SHFE tin oscillated above 260,000 yuan [11]. - **Upstream Supply**: Although tin prices resisted multiple supply - side impacts, the impact of systematic risks on prices was large, indicating that the market focus has shifted to demand. Alphamin is resuming production, and attention should be paid to actual supply changes [12]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Uncertainty in demand increased due to potential US tariffs on the semiconductor industry. Domestic SMM tin social inventory decreased slightly to 11,600 tons, and LME tin inventory increased to 3,140 tons [12]. - **Outlook**: The tin market is treated as a rebound, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. It is recommended to short - sell and wait for supply changes [12]. 2.3 April 21 - **Price Trend**: Although SHFE tin rebounded on Monday, the overall price oscillated, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. LME tin was weaker than SHFE tin, and attention should be paid to its performance at $32,500 [13]. - **Upstream Supply**: The tin market is still in a tight supply situation. In March, domestic tin concentrate imports decreased year - on - year. Domestic smelters' raw material inventories were tight, and it was expected that April's refined tin output might decrease. Yinman Mining resumed production, and Alphamin gave up its 20,000 - ton annual output target [13]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Consumption in the semiconductor industry is highly uncertain. Due to the price fluctuations last week, downstream enterprises replenished their inventories, and steel - linked tin social inventory decreased to 10,600 tons. Attention should be paid to pre - holiday inventory replenishment before May Day [14]. - **Outlook**: The tin market is regarded as a rebound, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. It is recommended to short - sell, and the medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply and consumption concerns [14]. 2.4 April 28 - **Price Trend**: Last week, domestic and international tin prices oscillated, with a narrowing fluctuation range. The weekly increase was over 2%. SHFE tin was stronger than LME tin, and SHFE tin weighted index oscillated above the 250 - day moving average, but the overall position decreased significantly. LME tin failed to break through $32,000 [16]. - **Upstream Supply**: In March, domestic tin concentrate imports continued to decline year - on - year. The weekly operating rates of refined tin production in Yunnan and Jiangxi were weak, and it was expected that April's tin output would drop to 14,000 tons. The import window for refined tin opened, and net imports might continue in April. The Wa State promoted the resumption of production, and the new fee standard might promote the large - scale and intensive development of the Manxiang Mine [16]. - **Downstream Consumption**: The global semiconductor consumption index has changed. LME tin inventory slowly decreased to 2,810 tons. Domestic SMM social inventory decreased slightly to 10,413 tons. The market is not optimistic about pre - May Day tin inventory replenishment. South Korea's export data was revised down, and there is high uncertainty in domestic photovoltaic and home appliance production schedules [17]. - **Outlook**: Overseas tin prices are weaker. The tin market is a rebound, and it is recommended to short - sell with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. The medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply and consumption factors [17]. 3. Conclusions and Outlook - In April, tin prices fluctuated extremely in the first half - month and then narrowed in the second half - month. The market focus has shifted to demand. The tin market is treated as a rebound, with strong resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. The medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply easing and consumption concerns, and short - selling is the main strategy. In May, tin prices will mainly complete the right - shoulder shock pattern, with obvious resistance above and a possible downward shift in the lower trading low [18][19].