【宏观动态】 芯片短缺持续，本田将暂停在日、中的部分生产 ADI计划2026年2月起对全系列产品提价约15% 特朗普表示将很快宣布相信低利率的下任美联储主席人选，并计划进行住房与药品价格改革 卖方观点：明年美国经济在基准情形下可能走向"修复"甚至"过热" 【卫星互联网】 卖方观点：一旦卫星具备分布式算力能力，SpaceX的商业模型将从"通信"跃迁到"AI基础设施" 相关ETF： 卫星产业ETF(场内：159218) 【半导体】 美光业绩与指引大幅超预期，第二财季营收指引远高于市场预测 美国11月CPI同比升2.7%，低于预期的3.1%，市场对美联储降息预期小幅上调 ChatGPT应用商店正式上线，集成Adobe、Apple Music等应用 传闻长鑫存储wafer价格上涨40%，模组价格上涨100% 相关ETF： 半导体设备ETF(场内：561980，场外联接：020464) 【机器人】 全球首条实现人形具身智能机器人规模化落地的新能源动力电池PACK生产线在宁德时代基地投入运行 相关ETF： 机器人指数ETF(场内：560770，场外联接：020482) 【人工智能】 相关ETF： 云计算ETF(场内：15 ...

Macroeconomic Dynamics - The RMB to USD exchange rate is expected to gradually appreciate from 7.0 to around 6.0 over the next decade [1] - The US economy grew by 4.3% in Q3, with former officials suggesting that the Federal Reserve is lagging behind in addressing interest rate cuts [1] Satellite Internet - The Long March 12A rocket's maiden flight was successful for the first stage, but the recovery of the sub-stage failed [1] - Related ETF: Satellite Industry ETF (on-market: 159218) [1] Non-ferrous Metals - London copper prices have surpassed $12,000 per ton, setting a new historical high [1] - Sellers are optimistic about the prices of gold, silver, platinum, and lithium [1] - Related ETF: Mining ETF (on-market: 159690) [1] Semiconductor - Sellers emphasize that clean rooms are a necessary engineering phase for the continued expansion of global AI capital expenditure [1] - The US has announced zero tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products until June 2027 [1] - Related ETF: Semiconductor Equipment ETF (on-market: 561980, off-market link: 020464) [1] Artificial Intelligence - Reports indicate that ByteDance plans to invest $23 billion in purchasing top-tier chips and building AI infrastructure [1] - Volcano Engine will become the AI cloud partner for the Spring Festival Gala in 2026 [1] - Market rumors suggest that ByteDance may significantly increase its procurement framework for Huawei's AI chips [1] - Related ETF: Cloud Computing ETF (on-market: 159890, off-market link: 021716), Semiconductor Equipment ETF (on-market: 561980, off-market link: 020464) [1] New Energy - The market is focused on the progress of long-term negotiations for lithium hexafluorophosphate, with price expectations shifting upward [1] - Leading manufacturers are expected to start bidding for solid-state battery pilot lines in January next year [1] - Policies aim for a total installed capacity of solar thermal power generation to reach around 15 GW by 2030 [1] - Related ETF: Battery ETF (on-market: 561910, off-market link: 016020) [1] Autonomous Driving - Beijing has issued the first batch of special license plates for L3 level autonomous driving vehicles, all of which are from BAIC's Arcfox brand [1] - Related ETF: Consumer Electronics 50 ETF (on-market: 159779, off-market link: 016007) [1] Market Observation - On December 23, the market transaction volume reached 1,899.8 billion, an increase of 37.9 billion [2] - The market is experiencing strong fluctuations at high levels, with sectors like electric equipment, building materials, and electronics leading the gains [2] - The satellite launch recovery failure may lead to a shift in expectations towards high-level fluctuations; AI core leaders are consolidating while upstream sectors like liquid cooling and PCB are showing determined performance [2] - The upstream energy storage sector rebounded due to news catalysts [2] - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations near previous highs, but the clear industrial trends in technology and commodities remain focal points [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia aims to export H200 chips to China before February 17, 2024, with an expected initial shipment of 40,000 to 80,000 units, primarily from inventory capacity [2][3] Group 1: Export Plans and Market Dynamics - Nvidia plans to increase production of H200 chips to supply the Chinese market in Q2 2024 [2] - The export of H200 chips to China is subject to significant uncertainty, as there is currently no approval from Chinese authorities for any related procurement [3] - Following the announcement by Trump allowing Nvidia to export H200 chips to China, the company must pay 25% of sales proceeds to the U.S. government [3][4] Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Challenges - The U.S. government has initiated a review process for the export of H200 chips, which may take up to 30 days, with Trump holding the final decision-making power [4] - There is opposition within the U.S. Congress regarding the export, with calls for more transparency on whether the chips could be used for military purposes [6] - Concerns about "backdoor" security risks have been raised, with previous incidents involving Nvidia's H20 chip [6][9] Group 3: Market Demand and Competition - Major Chinese tech companies like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent are expected to be the first buyers of H200 chips, indicating strong demand in the AI infrastructure sector [7] - Despite the potential for Nvidia's return to the Chinese market, domestic chip manufacturers are rapidly improving their capabilities, posing a competitive threat [9] - AMD and Intel are also targeting the Chinese market, with AMD having already secured export licenses for its AI chips [10][11] Group 4: Financial Implications - The estimated sales revenue from the initial shipment of H200 chips could range from $1 billion to $4 billion, considering the market price and the required tax [8] - Nvidia's previous quarterly revenue from the Chinese market was significantly lower, indicating challenges in regaining market share [8]

计算机 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 强于大市 智能驾驶箭在弦上 计算机行业"一周解码" 希迪智驾登陆港交所，背靠场景优势实现高成长但仍需穿越商业落地"四 重门"；全国首张 L3 自动驾驶正式号牌落地，标志着自动驾驶开始进 入受监管的真实运营阶段；OpenAI 启动新一轮最高 1000 亿美元融资， 估值或达 8300 亿美元，计划用于 AI 基础设施的长期扩张。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 建议关注智能驾驶相关企业，包括地平线机器人、黑芝麻智能等算力与芯片 企业，中科创达、德赛西威、经纬恒润、光庭信息等智驾系统与域控制器企 业，小马智行、文远知行等 Robotaxi 企业，中邮科技、万集科技、新北洋、 北路智控等垂直智驾企业，以及四维图新、小鹏汽车、浩瀚深度、阿尔特等。 评级面临的主要风险 技术创新不及预期；政策推行不到位；下游需求景气度不稳定的风险。 相关研究报告 《阿里打造 AI 超级 APP，海外算力政策松 动》20251212 《量子计算有望加速普及》20251207 《网络安全政策再加码》20251201 《从 Gemini 到英伟达：AI 竞争转向应用落地》 2 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index Company launched the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Electronic Industry Theme Index, which reflects the performance of Hong Kong-listed companies related to the electronic industry, including semiconductors, telecommunications equipment, and IT devices [1] - The index consists of 40 stocks, which are the highest market capitalization companies that meet the electronic theme criteria, and it will be reviewed semi-annually with quarterly adjustments to weightings [1] - Component stocks include AAC Technologies, TCL Electronics, SMIC, Lenovo Group, and ZTE Corporation [1] Group 2 - AAC Technologies reported a revenue of 13.32 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an 18.4% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 876 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 63.1% year-on-year [1] - The company invests 7%-10% of its revenue in R&D annually, with R&D centers located in 19 countries and regions, and has accumulated over 18,000 global patent applications [1] - AAC Technologies is actively expanding into various industries, including smartphones, smart cars, AI infrastructure, virtual reality, augmented reality, and smart home technologies [1] Group 3 - Following the acquisition of global waveguide leader Dispelix, AAC Technologies is set to mass-produce its next-generation AR products, with large-scale deliveries expected in 2026 [2] - The company's high-value core components, particularly waveguides, optical engines, and acoustics, are positioned to penetrate the Google/META supply chain, potentially unlocking value growth in the global high-end market [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index Company announced the launch of the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Electronic Industry Theme Index, which reflects the performance of Hong Kong-listed companies related to the electronic industry that can be traded via the Stock Connect [1] - The index consists of 40 constituent stocks, which are the highest market capitalization stocks that meet the electronic theme criteria, and will be reviewed semi-annually with quarterly adjustments to their weightings [1] Group 2 - The constituent stocks include companies such as AAC Technologies, TCL Electronics, SMIC, Lenovo Group, and ZTE Corporation [2] - AAC Technologies reported a revenue of 13.32 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an 18.4% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 876 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 63.1% year-on-year [2] - AAC Technologies invests 7%-10% of its revenue annually in R&D, with research centers located in 19 countries and regions, and has filed over 18,000 global patent applications [2] - The company is expanding into various industries including smartphones, smart cars, AI infrastructure, virtual reality, augmented reality, and smart homes, aiming to create new sensory experiences [2] - Following the acquisition of Dispelix, a leading global waveguide company, AAC Technologies is set to mass-produce its next-generation AR products, with large-scale deliveries expected in 2026, potentially opening up high-end market growth opportunities [2]

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，预计超节点方案有望快速上量，作为未来底层AI基础设施的 基本计算单元，超节点scale up域具备高效通信带宽、原生内存语义等优势，天然适配当前主流的MoE 架构模型的计算。超节点在系统层面的"反解耦"使得整体系统价值得以提升，本身设计也面临更多挑 战，多芯片功耗、散热、机柜可靠性等诸多挑战亟待解决，同时也要考虑到系统运行中所面临的困难， 中信证券认为超节点有望通过更高的技术附加带来整机环节价值量的提升。中信证券看好超节点服务器 整机环节的未来发展，建议关注产业链相关公司。 中信证券主要观点如下： MoE架构模型对硬件提出新要求，Scale up超节点应运而生。 在Scaling law的发展背景下，主流AI大模型为追求更大参数规模与更高运行效率，普遍采用MoE（混合 专家）架构。得益于专家网络的独特结构，其天然适配专家并行的计算模式——这种方式虽能有效优化 计算与访存瓶颈，却随之引入了新的通信难题，基于Scale up网络的超节点由此应运而生。相较于传统 八卡服务器，超节点面临更为复杂的系统性挑战：一是海量芯片协同工作带来的系统散热压力；二是多 芯片间光、铜混合互连方 ...

以下文章来源于鸣鹤睿思 ，作者Jensen 鸣鹤睿思 . 投研笔记，聚焦趋势，全球配置，研究创造价值。重点研究领域：科技、生物医药。欢迎交流，VX： Kodiak-Bear-001 上周五到本周三，不是只有博通（Broadcom）暴跌，而是一整片"AI相关股票"在一起下沉。光模块、 交换机、电源、存储，这些"逻辑挺硬"的名字，都在同一时间段里被按下去。 如果只是把它理解成"情绪波动"或者"高位回调"，其实是低估了这次事件的信息密度。真正有价值的问 题不是"为什么博通跌了"，而是—— 博通和甲骨文的最新财报，到底揭示了AI基础设施这门生意正在 发生怎样的变化？而这种变化，对我们关注的公司意味着什么？ 先从博通说起。 博通这次财报最重要的信息，并不是AI需求变弱，相反，需求强得惊人。公司披露，未来18个月在手 的AI相关订单已经超过730亿美元，涵盖定制加速器（XPU）、以太网交换芯片、DSP、激光器等一整 套AI数据中心核心部件。Tomahawk 6 102Tbps交换芯片的预订速度，是博通历史上最快的之一。仅 从"量"来看，AI这条曲线没有任何放缓迹象。 但市场真正开始警惕的，是博通自己在电话会里反复强调的一 ...

近期，甬兴证券发布通信行业2026年策略，认为光互联技术持续发展，端侧AI场景日益丰富。 消息侧，全球算力需求及技术迭代利好产业链。海外云厂商资本开支快速提升，中国智能算力规模高速 增长。光互联技术演变发展推动产业链需求增长。未来800G和1.6T等高速光模块的需求有望快速增 长；Scale-up渗透率提升驱动数通光模块需求增长；硅光解决方案是光模块未来重要发展方向之一；全 光交换OCS技术赋能灵活拓扑与系统弹性，谷歌技术优势深厚；随着芯片功耗的快速提升，风冷散热逼 近极限，液冷渗透率有望快速提升。端侧AI应用驱动物联网产业发展。物联网市场稳健增长，端侧AI 成为新驱动力。AI玩具丰富个性化体验，多款产品上市；智能割草机器人渗透率仍处低位，市场增长 潜力较大；具身智能成为国家战略，市场规模不断扩大。卫星互联网政策不断，组网持续推进。卫星互 联网产业链全面，国内政策密集落地。国内卫星互联网进入产业化发展阶段，星座计划组网持续部署。 据弗若斯特沙利文报告，2024年，全球AI基础设施投资额由2020年的人民币1000亿元增加至人民币 5985亿元，复合年增长率为56.4%；预计到2029年，投资额将进一步增长至人 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that supernode solutions are expected to scale up rapidly, serving as fundamental computing units for future AI infrastructure [1] - Supernode scale-up domains possess advantages such as efficient communication bandwidth and native memory semantics, making them well-suited for current mainstream MoE architecture models [1] - The "decoupling" at the system level enhances the overall system value, although the design faces challenges including multi-chip power consumption, heat dissipation, and cabinet reliability [1] - The industry anticipates that supernodes can increase the value of the entire machine segment through higher technological added value, and there is a positive outlook for the future development of supernode server machine segments [1] Industry Implications - The report suggests paying attention to companies within the supply chain related to supernode technology, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [1]