Group 1: Policy and Market News - Since August 8, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation will resume levying VAT on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, while the interest income of bonds issued before August 8 and subsequent issuances will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity [1] - The US added only 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, the lowest in 9 months, far below the expected 110,000, with the previous two months' data revised down by 258,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, indicating a sharp slowdown in the labor market [1] - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies, and increase financing support for key areas [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry in 2025, involving 41 enterprises [1] - US President Trump signed an executive order to impose counter - tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries or regions that have not reached an agreement with the US, with the tariffs taking effect on August 7, 2025 [2] Group 2: Commodity Market - Key commodities to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, asphalt, crude oil, and coking coal [3] - Among commodity sectors, non - metallic building materials rose 2.83%, precious metals 27.61%, oilseeds 12.40%, non - ferrous metals 21.40%, soft commodities 2.58%, coal - coking - steel - mining 14.32%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 11.74%, grains 1.16%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.78% [6] Group 3: Stock and Bond Market - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% daily and monthly, but rose 6.21% annually; the SSE 50 fell 0.79% daily and monthly, and rose 2.58% annually; the CSI 300 fell 0.51% daily and monthly, and rose 3.05% annually [8] - Among other equity indices, the CSI 500 fell 0.21% daily and monthly, and rose 8.51% annually; the S&P 500 fell 1.60% daily and monthly, and rose 6.06% annually; the Hang Seng Index fell 1.07% daily and monthly, and rose 22.17% annually, etc. [9] - For fixed - income products, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.02% daily, 0.05% monthly, and 0.45% annually; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures had no daily and monthly change, and fell 0.77% annually; the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had no daily and monthly change, and fell 0.61% annually [9] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index fell 1.50% daily and monthly, and 0.49% annually; WTI crude oil fell 2.83% daily, 2.77% monthly, and 6.42% annually; London spot gold rose 2.22% daily and monthly, and 28.14% annually [9] - The US dollar index fell 1.36% daily and monthly, and 9.03% annually; the CBOE volatility index rose 21.89% daily and monthly, and 17.46% annually [9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant changes in trade policies under President Trump's return to the White House, particularly focusing on new tariffs that may become a long-term fixture in the market [2] - Analysts are closely monitoring the semiconductor and pharmaceutical industries for potential tariffs, especially the "232 clause" which may impact chip manufacturers and related equipment [2] - Bernstein analysts indicate that the White House is considering including semiconductors and manufacturing in the new tariff list, which could significantly affect wafer foundries and packaging testing industries, with TSMC being a key supplier [2] Group 2 - The "reciprocal tariffs" policy will impose a 15% tariff on products from major economies like the EU, Japan, and South Korea, while other countries with trade surpluses with the US will face a 10% tariff [3] - Barclays highlights that Singapore, maintaining a 10% tariff rate, is positioned as the biggest winner in Asia, but still faces risks from semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs [3] - According to Barclays, Vietnam has the highest exposure to US tariffs with a 2.3% weighted average tariff rate, followed by Thailand, Malaysia, and South Korea, all within the 1.0-1.4% range [3] Group 3 - The article notes that countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, and India have relatively lower exposure to US tariffs, with risk levels at 3.1%, 2.3%, and 2.0% respectively [4] - The data suggests that a significant portion of the economic value in these countries relies on exports subject to US tariffs, indicating they would be heavily impacted if the US expands its tariff list [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. has suspended the tax exemption for imported packages valued at $800 or less, effective August 29, impacting various international logistics companies [1][4] - The adjustment of the de minimis policy is not limited to China, affecting foreign e-commerce brands like Amazon and eBay, with a significant increase in small package volumes expected [4][8] - The de minimis policy, established in the 1930 Tariff Act, aimed to simplify import processes and enhance customs efficiency, facilitating cross-border e-commerce operations [4][6] Group 2 - The cancellation of the de minimis exemption is expected to negatively impact the U.S. online retail sector, leading to logistical restructuring and delays in shipments for foreign brands [6][7] - Since May, the volume of packages from China has decreased by 35%, with significant drops in daily active users for brands like Shein and Temu [7] - The U.S. has also introduced a new round of "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on various countries, adding further pressure on global cross-border e-commerce [10]

01 PART ONE 主要观点 PMI 2012 31 2025-08-04 F3014717 Z0013223 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内大宗商品大幅走弱，其中，工业品、农产品同步下跌。主要原因一是美国如期在8月1日征收关税，二是美联储按兵不动，基调偏鹰，压制市场的风险偏 | | | 好；三是，国内政策预期明显降温，一方面增量政策预期落空，另一方面反内卷政策低于预期。 1）当地时间7月31日，特朗普签署"进一步修改对等关税税率"行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的10%~41%不等的新对等关税税率，并于8月7日正式生效。 | | | 2）美国联邦公开市场委员会以9票赞成，2票反对，连续第五次会议维持利率在4.25%-4.50%区间不变。此前金融市场普遍预期央行将在9月降息，但鲍威尔认为经 济未来面临的部分风险有所上升，并对此表示"下结论为时尚早"，被解读为鹰派表态。3）美国二季度实际GDP环比大幅回升同比持平于2.0%，其中居民消费、 | | | 非住宅投资增长势头较为强劲，净出口逆差收窄，呈现出超预期的总体韧性。4）7月非农数据显示美国劳动力市场正 ...

最近，中美双方的第三轮贸易磋商落下帷幕，但结果却并不尽如人意，尤其在关税问题上，双方始终未能达成一致意见。据悉，美国计划实施的对等关税政 策将在24小时内生效，也就是说，如果在这段时间内未能与美国进行有效沟通，相关政策将正式启动。但值得注意的是，中国在这一局势中却显得有些例 外。此前的会谈中，美国方面曾表示愿意延迟政策的实施，但具体的延迟时间尚未确定，这就意味着美国留出最大的余地给中国，而中国也肯定会全力应 对。那么，接下来的局势将如何演变呢？ 进入七月，特朗普显然变得更加忙碌。自从他签署对等关税的行政令以来，相关延期的期限也快到点了。为了避免影响到国家利益，许多国家都在加快与美 国的谈判步伐，试图寻找到一个平衡点。根据媒体的报道，目前美国已与其主要盟友达成了基本的协议框架，接下来只需着手处理一些细节问题。 当然，不是所有国家都有能力进行如此精准有效的反制。印度曾试图效法中国采取反制措施，自认作为大国的他们可以获得与美国谈判的筹码。然而，印度 发现自己并没有让美国忌惮的资本，无非是寄希望于与特朗普的个人友谊，希望能因此获得一些优待。而现实却给了他们一记响亮的耳光，特朗普如若在乎 与外国领导人的关系，就不会推行 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the recent tariff decisions made by Trump against Brazil, India, and South Korea, highlighting the implications for these countries and their economies [1][3][5]. Group 1: Tariff Decisions - Trump announced a 40% tariff on Brazil, with a total tariff rate reaching 50%, excluding certain products like wood pulp and oil [3][5]. - India faces a 25% tariff along with unspecified penalties due to a lack of compromise during trade negotiations [6][8]. - South Korea is subjected to a 15% tariff, which is lower than that imposed on India, but comes with significant financial commitments to the U.S. [10][12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The high tariffs on Brazil could strain U.S. importers who rely on Brazilian products, creating a challenging situation for both countries [5]. - India's response to the tariffs may be to emphasize the importance of U.S.-India relations, despite the punitive measures [8]. - South Korea's commitment to invest $350 billion and procure $100 billion in energy products is seen as a way to mitigate the impact of tariffs, but it may lead to domestic backlash against the government [10][12]. Group 3: Political Reactions - Brazilian President Lula has indicated that Brazil will retaliate against U.S. tariffs, suggesting a tit-for-tat approach [5]. - Indian Prime Minister Modi has stated that the door for negotiations remains open, indicating a desire to maintain relations despite the tariffs [8]. - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung may face significant domestic criticism for conceding to U.S. demands, especially given the contrasting policies of his predecessor [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant impact of the newly implemented "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration, indicating that American consumers are facing the highest tariff rates since 1934, which will lead to increased household expenses and economic challenges in the coming years [1][4]. Summary by Sections - **Tariff Rates and Impact** The average effective tariff rate on imports in the U.S. has reached 18.3%, the highest since 1934, with new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% set to take effect on August 7 [1][4]. - **Economic Consequences** The Yale Budget Lab predicts that the tariff policy will reduce the annual GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points for both 2025 and 2026, and increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 and 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026 [7]. - **Household Spending Increase** By 2025, the average American household is expected to see an increase in expenses by $2,400 due to tariffs, with clothing and footwear prices particularly affected—projected short-term increases of 40% for shoes and 38% for clothing [7]. - **Long-term Price Projections** Long-term projections suggest that shoe prices may rise by 19% and clothing prices by 17% [7]. - **Consumer Behavior Adjustments** If American households adopt cost-saving measures, such as purchasing lower-cost goods, the overall financial burden may be reduced to $2,000 [8]. - **Economic Outlook** The analysis from Yale serves as a warning of increasingly difficult economic conditions for American households in the upcoming months, especially in light of recent disappointing non-farm employment reports [9].

特朗普在美国东部时间7月31日（北京时间8月1日）签署的总统令中，设定了对等关税的新 税率。此前只有全部国家或地区一律为10%的基本税率。自8月7日起，对约70个国家或地区 征收10%～41%的对等关税。 对日本关税为15%。由于美国对几乎所有进口汽车征收25%税率的汽车关税，虽然日本与美 国就下调至12.5%达成协议，但并未写入总统令。由于日美协议的税率与对等关税的法律依 据不同，实施时间尚不清楚。 美国总统特朗普已决定提高对世界各国征收的对等关税。特朗普挥舞着高关税的大棒，以力 量强迫各国开放市场和增加对美投资。随着作为最大经济大国的美国背弃自由贸易，世界进 入了被迫与强权支配的新经济秩序对峙的时代。 特朗普在美东7月31日签署的总统令中，设定了对等关税的新税率。高关税扰乱了世界，但给美国带来 了税收增加这一好处。统计显示，仅对等关税的10%部分，截至7月13日的税收就达到221亿美元…… 自1995年世界贸易组织（WTO）成立以来，美国的有效关税税率基本低于3%。一系列关税 上调的措施很可能使有效关税税率达到与第二次世界大战前相同的水平。如果超过20%，则 可以追溯到第一次世界大战前的水平。 特朗普政府 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the escalation of the U.S.-initiated tariff war, with significant implications for global trade dynamics and relationships between countries [1][10][22] - The U.S. has confirmed a new round of tariffs, with the trade representative stating that the tariffs are "basically set" and will not be adjusted during current negotiations [1][10] - Canada has faced a sharp increase in tariffs from 25% to 35%, which is linked to its announcement to recognize Palestine, indicating a political motive behind the tariff increase [3][5][11] Group 2 - The EU and U.S. reached a framework agreement that includes a 15% uniform tariff rate and commitments for significant investments in U.S. military and energy sectors, but it has been criticized as an unequal treaty [10][12][22] - India is facing a 25% tariff on its exports to the U.S., which is higher than tariffs imposed on other countries, highlighting a shift in U.S. trade policy even towards its allies [11][12][14] - Brazil is also affected, with tariffs reaching up to 50% on certain products, indicating a broader strategy by the U.S. to exert pressure on countries that challenge its geopolitical interests [15][18][22] Group 3 - The article discusses the "three buckets" strategy proposed by U.S. Treasury Secretary, categorizing countries based on their alignment with U.S. interests, which reflects a shift in global trade policy [19][21] - The impact of tariffs on U.S. consumers is significant, with estimates suggesting an annual cost increase of $2,400 for American households due to the tariffs [24] - The ongoing tariff war is seen as detrimental to the global economy, with warnings from the IMF about potential negative repercussions on economic growth and stability [22][24]

"黑天鹅"突袭，多个市场的"瑞士概念股"全线大跌。 因上周五（8月1日）假期休市，瑞士股市对美国总统特朗普宣布的39%关税的反应要到本周一开盘后才会显现。 在此之前，市场的一致预期是，瑞士有望与欧盟、英国、日本类似，和美国达成一个框架协议，将关税水平维持在 10%至15%之间。 据央视新闻最新消息，美国贸易代表格里尔表示，特朗普上周对多国加征的新一轮关税"基本已定"，不会在当前 谈判中作出调整，包括对从加拿大进口的商品征收35%关税、对巴西征收50%关税、对印度征收25%关税、对瑞士征 收39%关税。格里尔称，部分关税是根据双边贸易盈余与赤字情况设定，"这些税率基本已经固定"。 有分析称，这对瑞士股市而言，无疑是"黑天鹅"事件，对瑞士经济与企业是"毁灭性打击"，将冲击特别依赖出口 的瑞士股市。受此影响，在其他市场交易的"瑞士概念股"8月1日全线大跌，例如，瑞银集团在美股盘中一度大跌近 4%，在英国伦敦交易的瑞士钟表集团大跌6.8%。 在此之前，市场普遍预期是，瑞士有望与欧盟、英国、日本类似，达成一个框架协议，将关税水平维持在10%至 15%之间。 这对瑞士股市而言，无疑是"黑天鹅"事件。瑞士咨询公司Porta ...